China And US Snub Global Talks On Vaccine
The title of this post is the same as that of this article in The Times.
Judging by the list of those that turned up to the talks, the United States and China care less about the health of their people and the wider world than Saudi Arabia.
My Equilibrium INR Has Risen Under Lockdown
For something like four years my Warfarin regime has been to take 4 mg. every day and to self test every Monday and Friday. It has been a simple regime that has worked well and my INR has stayed between two and three, with 2.4-2.6 being the common readings.
In other words what I would call as a Control Engineer, my equilibrium INR is spot on.
In the past, I have noticed that in times of hot weather my INR has tended to rise and in times of cold weather, it has occasionally dropped. A change of dose to three or five mg. has generally kicked it back towards 2.5 mg.
Doctors and this Control Engineer would say that you shouldn’t chase the INR by constantly changing the dose.
Warfarin also seems to have a cumulative property. A couple of years, I had to have a small operation. I dropped the INR to 2.1 for the operation over three days, by cutting back to 3 mg. After the operation three days at 5 mg. brought it back to 2.5.
Under lockdown, my equilibrium INR rose initially to 3 on a dose of 4 mg. every day.
In a telephone conversation with my GP, we agreed to alternate the dose between 3 and 4 mg. every day. My INR now seems to be stabilising between 2.5 and 2.8.
Why has my equilibrium INR risen under lockdown?
My house can get hot, as it wasn’t designed and built correctly and because of that I am drinking a lot of fluids. When I prick my finger for the self-test, the blood seems more watery than usual, so are all those fluids diluting my blood and causing my INR to rise?
Bodies can’t disobey the laws of physics!
Oh! For a walk by the sea in the sun!
Northern Cities And COVID-19
If you look at the official Government statistics for the total number of cases of COVID-19, as of May 3rd, the number of cases in the two major cities in the North West as follows.
- Leeds – 1463 out of a city population of 789,194 (0.18%) and a metro population of 2,638,127 (0.05%)
- Liverpool – 1454 out of a city population of 494,814 (0.29%) and a metro population of 2,241,000 (0.06%)
- Manchester – 1154 out of a city population of 547,627 (0.21%) and a metro population of 3,748,274 (0.03%)
- Newcastle – 939 out of a city population of 300,196 (0.31%) and a metro population of 1,650,000 (0.06%)
- Nottingham – 537 out of a city population of 321,500 (0.17%) and a metro population of 1,610,000 (0.03%)
- Sheffield – 2191 out of a city population of 582,506 (0.38%) and a metro population of 1,569,000 (0.14%)
Note.
- All populations come from Wikipedia.
- Why is Liverpool 40% worse than Manchester?
- Why is Sheffield the worst?
I will add a few smaller towns andcities.
- Blackpool – 465 out of an urban population of 139,720 (0.33%)
- Caldervale – 252 out of an urban population of 200,100 (0.13%)
- Hull – 469 out of a city population of 260,645 (0.18%)
- Middlesbrough – 566 out of an urban population of 174,700 (0.32%)
- Stoke-on-Trent – 509 out of a city population of 255,833 (0.20%)
- York – 315 out of a city population of 209,893 (0.15%)
I’d like to see full statistics plotted on a map or a scatter diagram.
The latter is a very powerful way to plot data and often they highlight data points that lie outside the underlying pattern of the data.
Acting Quickly Can Reduce Coronavirus Death Toll In Care Homes
The title of this post is the same as that of this article in The Times.
This is the first two paragraphs.
Care homes account for almost half of all coronavirus deaths in several European countries but the number of future deaths can be reduced if measures are taken, research has found.
Between 42 per cent and 57 per cent of deaths from the virus in Italy, Spain, France, Ireland and Belgium happened in care homes, figures show.
But the article also says that Hong Kong acted quickly, after the experience of the 2003 Sars epidemic, and have had no deaths in care homes.
It appears we can learn from the experiences of other countries.
It is also my view, that the typical care home model in lots of countries is not fit for purpose!
We need a new design, that can be locked down quickly in a civilised manner.
Should Campaigning Against Vaccination Be Made A Crime Against Humanity?
Boris is reported today on the BBC and in The Times, as saying that a coronavirus vaccine is the only way we will win.
Boris is totally right!
We will not be safe until everybody is vaccinated. Vaccination has virtually conquered diseases like smallpox, polio and measles.
Perhaps campaigning against vaccination, should be a crime against humanity!
I live in Hackney, where there is a lot of measles, caused by people being against the MMR vaccine. Will these idiots accept a vaccine for Covid-19?
Birthday Parties And Weddings Among Most Risky Coronavirus ‘Super‑Spreader’ Events
The title of this post is the same as this article in The Sunday Times.
This is the introductory paragraph.
The party could be over for a while. Scientists have found that family celebrations such as birthdays and weddings, and gatherings of similar size, are among the deadliest ways to spread Covid-19. Indoor gatherings of 10 to 30 people allow one person carrying the virus to infect up to 10 others.
I doubt we’ll have gatherings of people, until we are all vaccinated.
A Surprising Question From A Doctor
I must have been about twenty-five, when I caught both chickenpox and measles at the same time from two of my children. Or I did think, that was the case, but the two youngest children must have had the MMR vaccine.
I remember, that I spent fourteen days on the sofa hardly moving, which is very unlike me.
After I was feeling better, I went to see my GP, who thought it was all over.
He then asked me if I gave blood. I replied that I didn’t!
It was only a couple of years later, when I was watching a documentary about children with leukaemia, that I heard a possible reason for his question.
- The documentary said that they gave blood with antibodies to childhood diseases to children undergoing chemotherapy.
- And my blood with both measles and chickenpox might have been very useful.
I’m publishing this post, as it has been announced today, that COVID-19 is to be treated with blood plasma, from survivors of the disease.
This article on the BBC, which is entitled Coronavirus: Thousands Signal Interest In Plasma Trial, gives more details.
COVID-19 Testing In Dalston
As I walked to Marks and Spencer, this morning, they were setting up a COVID-19 testing site, in the car park near Dalston Junction station.
Note that when I came back, there were a lot of cars queuing to get in.
Thoughts On The COVID-19 Testing
I must first congratulate all those involved in organising and carrying-out the tests.
As someone, who has analysed many large databases for patterns of perhaps marketing information, product recalls or criminal activity, 100,000 tests per day or million in ten days, is a very large amount of hopefully reliable data, that I believe can be used to answer a lot of relevant questions about the progress of this pandemic and our very boring (For me, at least!) lockdown.
I hope, that the tests collect all the right data to go along with the physical data.
But I suspect that some important scientifically-correct questions won’t be asked. For instance.
- What is your place of birth?
- What is your BMI?
- How much exercise do you do every day?
- What is your religion?
- How often do you attend a religious service?
- How many in your household?
- How many generations in your household?
- Do you have a pet that needs exercise?
- Do you have any drug habits?
- Do you have any allergies?
- Do you smoke?
- How much alcohol do you drink?
- Are you vegetarian?
Only by collecting a full database alongside the testing process, will we get maximum value out of the testing.
To Revive Economy, Think Infrastructure
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on CommonWealth.
This is the sub-title.
It worked in the Great Recession and it can work now.
The author is talking about Massachusetts in 2008, but I’m sure it would work in the UK and other countries in 2020.
Projects I would bring forward in the UK.
- Build lots of wind farms, both onshore and offshore.
- Build energy storage. I would go for Highview Power.
- Use wind energy to generate hydrogen for industrial processes. ITM Power in Rotherham, have the technology.
- Build a refuelling network for hydrogen-powered cars, buses, trucks and other vehicles.
- Add new rail stations to the network, where needed.
- Update all possible rail, tram, light rail and Underground stations so they are step-free.
- Build the electrified Huddersfield and Leeds upgrade to the TransPennine Route.
- Expand the Blackpool Tram, the Edinburgh Tram, the Manchester Metrolink, Merseyrail, the Nottingham Express Transit, the Sheffield Supertram, the Tyne and Wear Metro and the West Midlands Metro.
- Extend the Docklands Light Railway West to Charing Cross, Euston, St. Pancras and Victoria.
I would setup a construction pipeline, so all areas of the country got a share of the new infrastructure.
We must be bold.
