Autumn Statement: Is Rail Devolution In London Dead?
This is the title of an article on the BBC web site.
This is how the article starts.
Sadiq Khan is not the first mayor to want more control over London’s rail service.
Previous mayors have managed it – Ken Livingstone took over Silverlink and Boris Johnson gained control of West Anglia.
But it looks like the chances of more takeovers are not that promising.
The article then goes on to make the point, that the timescale for taking over Southeastern metro services is very tight.
As time is a very absolute constraint, action needs to be taken now!
An Understated Headline
This article on Business Insider is entitled A rail link between Oxford and Cambridge could help create a massive tech hub in the UK.
Could is not the word I’d use!
This page on the Government web site, contains a summary of the report, on which the article is based.
This is the second paragraph of the report.
The Commission’s central finding is that a lack of sufficient and suitable housing presents a fundamental risk to the success of this area. Without a joined-up plan for housing, jobs and infrastructure across the corridor, it will be left behind its international competitors. By providing the foundations for such a strategy, new east-west transport links present a once in a generation opportunity to secure the area’s future success.
As housing is so important to any development, this is crucial. The interim report makes a series of recommendations. This is the first.
- Government should go ahead with East West Rail’s initial phase, a new link cutting journey times by more than half on the route from Oxford to Bedford and Milton Keynes, ensuring it is delivered before 2024; and it should invest in developing as soon as possible detailed plans for both the next phase of East West Rail (which would complete the link to Cambridge) and for a new Oxford-Cambridge Expressway.
So why is the Government farting about?
I blame the following.
- The route via Bedford, contains lots of great-crested newts, in all the disused brick works.
- The name; East West Rail Link, doesn’t have North in it.
- Oxford doesn’t want a railway, that might encourage more visitors who would interfere with academic life.
- The Sir Humphries of this world went to one of two universities; Oxford or Cambridge. They believe the two academic cities shouldn’t be connected and certainly not via Milton Keynes.
- Addenbrooke’s hospital has objected, as it will bring lots of patients from the route to their world-class facilities.
- It doesn’t go near Islington for the Labour Party or Edinburgh for the SNP.
- Democracy
The Chinese would have built it last week or possibly yesterday, as it calls at Bicester Village!
It’s Time To Look On The Bright Side Of Trump
This was the title of a comment by Matt Ridley in The Times yesterday.
He may not be everyone’s cup of tea, but I have read a couple of his books; Genome and Nature via Nurture and found they added to my knowledge.
This is a precis of his comment.
He starts like this.
So here, after a few days of talking to people in America’s two biggest economies, California and Texas, are ten reasons why I think a Trump residency may not be as awful as many think, even if, like me, you heard of the news of his victory with a sinking feeling.
The article has ten main sections.
- Just as after Brexit, the markets went up, not down. Despite the predictions of analysts.
- He is already watering down his more outlandish threats.
- The Presidency is nothing like as powerful a job as it seems.
- The Democratic Party will soon be back and hounding Mr. Trump, if only in the Courts.
- Mr. Trump is already surrounding himself with reasonably sensible people.
- Some of his policies are not so bad.
- His adviser on climate and energy, Myron Ebell, is right that climate change policy has become a gravy train for the rich that hurts the poor.
- The promised “swamp draining” – in the unlikely event Mr. Trump pulls it off – will be cathartic.
- His reprehensible attitude to women, minorities and the disabled, though setting a terrible example, is fortunately unlikely to result in actual persecution by the government.
- The idea that this is the end of democracy or the start of fascism, as some hyperventilating luvvies are saying, is nonsense.
Ridley finishes with.
If he really does kill the North American Free Trade Agreement, as well as the transpacific and transatlantic trade treaties, he will assuredly cause a recession that hurts blue-collar workers in the rust belt more than free trade ever did. And he might craqsh the world economy.
I can see few silver linings there.
Here are some quotes from the article I can agree with.
- Mr. Pence is a creationist and religious conservative, which is not my cup of tea.
- The House Speaker, Paul Ryan, is a formidable figure who will effectively decide how much of Trump’s programme will happen.
- Steven Mnuchin, the likely Treasury Secretary, is from Goldman Sachs, for goodness sake.
- If Mr. Trump unleashes more gas production, that will cut emissions and drive out coal faster than renewable energy ever could.
- Compared with many Republicans, Mr. Trump is positively liberal on matters such as abortion and religion.
- If Mr. Trump makes a mess of things, he will be gone in four years – or sooner.
If you get a chance to read the whole article, you should.
Could The Brexit Ruling Be Beneficial To All?
This article on the BBC is entitled PM urged to calm the backlash against Brexit ruling.
It is all getting very nasty out there.
The judges were asked for their opinion and they gave it.
Some reaction is like that of a heavy smoker, who has just asked his doctor, if smoking will cause lung cancer and he hasn’t liked the reply.
I am by training a Control Engineer, who in his time has modelled very complex systems.
I can remember a couple of difficult problems, where to find a working solution, some form of delay had to be introduced.
After that, everything was hunky-dory!
The biggest effect of the Brexit ruling, will be to introduce a delay in the calling of Article 50, which will now hang like a Sword of Damacles over everybody, be they a politician, captain of industry or just an ordinary Jack or Jill like me.
So as Doctor Johnson said about hanging concentrating the mind, could we see the ultimate British solution; a compromise?
Thank the Devil for lawyers!
Will The Third Runway At Heathrow Be Actually Built In The Near Future?
If nothing else the 25th ofSeptember 2026 statement by the Government, stated that the UK is going to build another runway in the South-East.
But I have my doubts, that a third runway will be open at Heathrow in the near future.
Building The Third Runway
As I said in Building The Third Runway At Heathrow, I don’t believe that the actual construction of the Airport would present any problems for any large construction company or more likely consortium. This is illustrated today, by this article on the BBC, which is entitled New Heathrow runway may be built above the M25, which says to me that engineers are looking for easier and more affordable ways to build the new runway.
Rebuilding The Current Terminals
Heathrow are also disclosing a master-plan, for rebuilding a lot of the airport to make it more efficient and up with the best.
- There will be two main terminals; Heathrow West and Heathrow East with satellites in between handling the actual planes.
- These two terminals and the satellites will be between the two existing runways, with a passenger and baggage transport system beneath.
- Terminal Five will become Heathrow West.
- An extended Terminal Two will become Heathrow East.
- Crossrail, Heathrow Express and the Underground will serve both main terminals.
- A Terminal Six would be mainly for the third runway, would effectively be part of Heathrow West.
I believe that this rebuilding could start well before the third runway is even given the go-ahead, as many of the works will be within the current Airport boundary.
Rail Links To The Airport
Part of the master-plan is extensive rail links to the Airport.
- Crossrail, Heathrow Express and the Underground will serve London.
- There will be rail links to both the West and South.
- There will be a rail link to both HS1 and HS2.
- Could we even see a rail-based cargo transport system running under all the terminals, bringing in supplies for the terminals and the planes?
This map from carto.metro.free.fr shows the current rail links at Heathrow.
Rail Lines At Heathrow
Note.
- The Piccadilly Line is shown in blue.
- The lines going South lead to Terminal Four.
- Crossrail has Terminal Four as its terminus
- The Heathrow West and Heathrow East concept fits the rail lines well.
- Terminal Five station is ready for access from the West.
I think just as Gatwick are embracing rail with a vengeance, rail can be a major force in the development of Heathrow.
We could even be seeing the current rail line through Terminals Two and Five becoming a high-capacity rail line connecting all the terminals to the West, East and South.
A Greener Airport
If as many of the traffic movements in and around the airport could be moved from polluting road transport to electric trains, Heathrow’s pollution footprint could be reduced.
As an example, you could envisage a factory in a low cost area by a rail line to the West of Heathrow creating airline meals. These would be packaged by flight number and then taken by electric cargo train direct to the appropriate terminal or satellite, ready for loading onto the plane.
Could we even see an airport, where very few trucks and service vehicles, use the runways and aprons? You certainly see a lot less vehicles on an airport, than you did decades ago.
I found this page on the Heathrow web site, which is entitled Our Vehicle Fleet Is Making The Switch.
This is a paragraph.
850 vehicles in the airside fleet at Heathrow are electric, making it one of the largest fleets of electric airside vehicles in Europe. As well as electric tugs that move baggage around the airfield, we use electric cars and vans to transport our people. We are trialling electric specialist ground support vehicles such as belt loaders, cargo loaders and push back tractors.
I was surprised to see pushback tractors mentioned, as some weigh up to fifty tonnes. But according to the Wikipedia entry for pushback, there are interesting developments in this field. This is said about robotic push back tractors.
The Lahav Division of Israel Aerospace Industries has developed a semi-robotic towbarless tractor it calls Taxibot that can tow an aircraft from the terminal gate to the take-off point (taxi-out phase) and return it to the gate after landing (taxi-in phase). The Taxibot eliminates the use of airplane engines during taxi-in and until immediately prior to take-off during taxi-out potentially saving airlines billions of dollars in fuel that is used. The Taxibot is controlled by the pilot from the cockpit using the regular pilot controls.
Even as a trained Control Engineer and a private pilot with over a thousand hours in command, I can’t help but wonder at the concept.
As a final thought, surely if all unnecessary vehicles could be removed from air-side, this must improve safety and security.
What too, would low or even zero carbon operations, do for the image of the airport?
Travelling To The Airport
One consequence of the rebuilding of the terminals with rail links to both London and the West, will be a reduction in the number of travellers, who drive or are driven to to the airport.
In the London Olympics every event ticket came with a London Travelcard, so that you used public transport. Could we see public transport tickets bundled in with air tickets to cut the need for vehicles to drive to and from the airport?
I certainly think, that we’ll see rail-connected parking to the airport, just because land close to an airport is so expensive.
Local Transport To The Airport
I suspect that a lot of journeys to and from the airport are quite local, as they concern local residents, employees or travellers perhaps spending a night after or before a flight close to the airport.
These journeys have not been forgotten in the master-plan, as it talks of improving bus services.
But the most interesting development is the ULTra PRT system, I talked about in A Visit To Heathrow Terminal 5.
A Heathrow-wide system has been proposed. This is said in Wikipedia.
In May 2013 Heathrow Airport Limited announced as part of its draft five year (2014-2019) master plan that it intended to use the PRT system to connect terminal 2 and terminal 3 to their respective business carparks. The proposal was not included in the final plan due to spending priority given to other capital projects and has been deferred.
There have been suggestions that they will extend the service throughout the airport and to nearby hotels using 400 pods.
The system at Heathrow may not be built, but expect something like it at an airport near you.
Imagine turning up in a convenient car park or train station, with family and baggage, ready to travel on holiday. You scan your pre-printed boarding pass or click one on your phone and a pod arrives, which takes you to the satellite your flight will use.
As they travelled, passengers could scan passports and they would be given up-to-date flight information.
Flying is a total pain, best summed up by the old pilot’s moto.
Time to spare, go by air!
A decent system to bring people to the airport, could make flying more of a pleasure.
Integration With Thameslink
I believe that it would be possible to have a direct Thameslink connection into Heathrow using the |Dudding Hill Line to link to Crossrail.
In Could Thameslink Connect To Heathrow?, I show how it would be possible to create a four tph service between Heathrow and Thameslink.
This could create an easy link to and from Gatwick and Luton Airports and Kings Cross, St. Pancras and London Bridge stations.
Integration With HS2
I’m taking this first, as it’s probably easier than linking to HS1
When Phase 2 of HS2 opens, services Northward from Old Oak Common station are proposed to be.
- Birmingham – 3 tph
- Edinburgh – 2 tph
- Glasgow – 2 tph
- Leeds – 3 tph
- Liverpool – 2 tph
- Manchester – 3 tph
- Newcastle – 2 tph
- Preston – 1 tph
- Sheffield – 2 tph
- York – 1 tph
I estimate that Heathrow to Old Oak Common will be about 20 minutes by Crossrail and Heathrow Express.
As changing planes at Heathrow, according to the Airport takes between 75 and 90 minutes, using HS2 would be competitive.
,Especially if the interchange at Old oak Common was well-designed.
Leeds will be about ninety minutes from Old Oak Common. so if the interchange timings are right, a passenger could be in the centre of Leeds around two hours after coming through Arrivals at Heathrow. A chauffeur-driven Ferrari couldn’t do that legally.
Integration With HS1
This is more difficult, as neither Crossrail nor Heathrow Express serves St. Pancras.
There are a choice of routes.
- Crossrail to Farringdon and then Thameslink or the Metropolitan Line to Kings Cross St. Pancras.
- Heathrow Express to Paddington and then a taxi.
- Heathrow Express to Paddington and then the Metropolitan Line
- Piccadilly Line to Kings Cross St. Pancras.
Interchange could have been designed to be a lot better.
I seem to remember that original plans for the Heathrow Express envisaged St. Pancras as a second London terminal, using the Dudding Hill Line.
But this route is probably impossible owing to there not being enough platforms at St. Pancras, which is A Fur Coat And No Knickers Station.
As there are other operators, who need extra platform space at St. Pancras, perhaps a couple of extra platforms could be built.
But I doubt it!
If Heathrow were to be linked to Thameslink, as I indicated earlier, this would solve the problem.
Terminals And The Third Runway
Extra terminal capacity, will be able to handle more passengers, but will the runways be able to handle the extra planes?
I suspect there are various strategies, that will keep the number of flights within the capacity of a two-runway airport.
- Larger aircraft with more capacity, will make better use of slots. 737s and A320s are carrying more passengers.
- Quieter aircraft, linked to better air traffic control, might givenoise and capacity advantages. Thuis page on the Heathrow web site, is entitled Steeper approach trial report.
- Reorganisation of air cargo to release slots.
- Use of Crossrail and/or Heathrow Express to connect to HS1 and HS2.
The more Heathrow use their intelligence, the further into the future the date for the third runway will recede.
Looking At The Cash Flow
Obviously, I don’t have any figures, but sorting out the terminals early and creating extra passenger capacity, may give Heathrow better cash flow to generate the vast sums needed to build the completely new Terminal Six and the third runway.
I’d love to see their full cash flow, but I suspect that the third runway, will only be needed when to expand the traffic, they need m the slots it will deliver.
The early costs would and could be.
- Fighting the protestors and the politicians.
- Obtaining Planning Permission.
- Buying up the private .properties in the way.
- Rolling out an anti-pollution philosophy.
- Creating Heathrow West (Terminal Five) and Heathrow East (An Extended Terminal Two)
- Extending the rail network.
- Professional fees.
Perhaps by the early 2020s, they would have a strong cash flow and ownership of all the land they might need.
Then at an appropriate time, they would build the new runway and any terminals needed, in the space they had acquired.
As today’s article on the BBC indicated, they wouldn’t even have to build a tunnel for the M25.
It would hopefully be a large, but reasonable straightforward construction operation.
The Opposition Is Gathering
This article in the Independent is entitled Heathrow expansion: Airlines react to Government’s airport decision.
- Stewart Wingate of Gatwick of Gatwick is quoted as being disappointed and saying he’ll read the Government’s reasons in detail.
- Dame Carolyn McCall of easyJet, said their planned move to Heathrow is contingent on the right deal.
- Willie Walsh of BA’s parent said he was pleased a decision had been made.
- Craig Kreeger of Virgin Atlantic, said: “We support expansion, provided it delivers for our customers.”
- Nick Burton of Luton Airport said that we must now focus on demand before the new runway is built in 10-15 years time.
- Charlie Cornish, chief executive of Stansted’s owner, Manchester Airports Group, said that we should make the best use of the runways we’ve got.
That doesn’t sound like a vote of confidence to me.
And I haven’t included all those who will lose their homes, the environmental protesters and those like me who don’t like Heathrow’s attitude.
The statistics are also not on Heathrow’s side either, as traffic is growing fast and another runway is needed soon, with a second one perhaps ten years later, to satisfy rising demand for air travel.
So What Could Happen?
Much of this is speculation, but Nostradamus couldn’t predict this one.
- In The Planemakers’ View On The South East’s New Runway, I quoted from an article in The Times, which said that Heathrow’s hub model is superseded by the views of the planemakers, who think it’s all about point-to-point flights in appropriate aircraft.
- Gatwick could probably apply for permission for a second runway in 2019.
- Luton, Southend and Stansted Airports are ambitious and want to expand.
- Better rail services to Stansred Airport have been announced.
- Luton Airport wants a better rail service.
- Birmingham Airport gets a connection to HS2 in the mid-2020s.
- Eurostar and other companies will increasingly add rail services to Europe.
These and other factors will eat into Heathrow’s market share, thus delaying that crucial point, where the third runway needs to be built.
But that doesn’t really solve the short term problem The only way to satisfy that is to create a runway in the South-East as soon as possible.
And the only place that can be built is Gatwick.
The growth in air traffic will continue and a few years later, Heathrow will get its runway.
Threat Of UK Tax Cut Staves Off Hostile EU
This is the headline on an article in the Sunday Times, which suggests that the UK may cut corporate tax rates from 20% to 10% unless the EU grants the UK access to the single market.
I don’t know whether it is speculation on the paper’s part, but it does illustrate how Brexit means that it removes a whole set of rules from the UK Government.
It is an interesting suggestion!
I think it could have these effects.
- Companies like Apple, Starbucks, Google and Amazon would look at the UK favourably.
- If a company was spending fortunes on research, the UK would probably be more attractive, as if say they developed a world-beating drug, they wouldn’t pay as much tax on the large profits.
But I never heard it mentioned in the Referendum.
It probably shows how our politicians all think inside boxes and that those in Europe do even more so!
Now There’s A Thing!
I made a mistake in an Internet search and found there’s an actor called Donald Tripe.
He must be having an interesting time in the run-up to the US Presidential Election
Surely The Labour Party Can Do Better Than This!
Just voted in the Hackney Mayor election.
What is the Labour Party’s logo? It doesn’t reproduce well in black and white on a ballot paper.
It looked like a cartoon version of Mr. Punch.
There was no difficulty with the others, especially the One Love Party, who had a heart!
Incidentally, the candidate for the One Love Party was French and their web site was a .eu one!
She’d probably have got nul votes in some parts of the UK.
The Voters Can Spot A Bullshitter A Mile Away.
According to today’s Standard, this was said by Michael Dugher, MP about Jeremy Corbyn.
He may have said it, but it is a statement that underestimates the intelligence of the average voter. They can spot a bullshitter from a lot further than a mile.
The Anonymous Widower 