Hot Air Over London’s Airports
Sir Howard Davies and his Airports Commission has reported about what it feels are ideas to expand London’s airports.
What he is proposing ignores a few facts.
I don’t think that any extra runway at Heathrow is possible, as the people who live in West London, would not vote for any MP, who supports it and therefore in their view make their lives worse. This of course ignores the fact that most people in the area, moved there after Heathrow was opened and they have had plenty of time to move away.In fact, they’re probably some of the most opinionated and selfish Nimbys in the country.
The major airlines, such as British Airways and Virgin want Heathrow to be expanded as this is much more convenient and probably more profitable for them. After all, say if Gatwick were to be expanded, then they would have to have two operations in different places.
Everything, I’ve read about the report, makes little mention of technology that will become available in the next few years.
Aircraft will certainly get more efficient and hopefully quieter, which should ease disturbance.
But some of the bugger changes will occur in how the aircraft are controlled, so they will be able to fly paths, that are much more precise and therefore become less noticeable to those on the ground. Such things as stacks of aircraft over London waiting to land at Heathrow will disappear.
The Commission does state that patterns of air travel will change because of low cost airlines and more point-to-point flying.
And this brings me to the last fact that he ignored.
Generally, it’s passengers who choose which flights they use. And the methods they choose are sometimes bizarre to say the least.
I choose my flights very much on the departure time of the flight and the availability of gluten-free food at the terminal.
Others may only fly with an airline on their favourite loyalty program.
So one factor that will change our behaviour and ease pressure on busy airports, is convenient alternatives. We already get that. Scots who want to fly to say the States, often travel to Manchester Airport, as the flights are cheaper, than at Glasgow or Edinburgh. This loads the trains from Glasgow to Manchester Airport so much, that extra trains are being purchased for the route. Other Scots, who may need to fly to say London to get an onward flight, often take a quick hop to Schipol instead. The big airlines at Heathrow, want this stopped and hence they are in favour of an expansion there.
So one thing that will take the pressure of the airports in London is better facilities and more flights at other airports. We probably need to open up regional airports more to foreign carriers, but then the big boys like their monopolies.
I can never understand why there isn’t a regular service from Stansted to the New York area. Airlines have tried but all seem to fail. Is the marketing of the big airlines and Heathrow to blame?
Crossrail and Thameslink will be game changers in how passengers choose to use the London airports. Millions of people will now be better connected to either one or both of the airports, so if the flights are available at the convenient one, they’ll use them.
Personally, I used to hate Gatwick, as this post from 2011 indicates. But after a change of ownership and better train links from East London, I quite like the place. Gatwick will get better, as the South Terminal gets rebuilt and restaurants are improved. Stansted is now rather a dump and you would only fly from there for cheap flights or unusual destinations.
So even the most stubborn of individuals can be made to change their minds!
Of the options the Airports Commission lays out, only two are viable.
An airport in the Thames Estuary will never be built, as it is just too costly and new technology and the other airports in the South East will expand enough to take the increase of demand.
A new runway at Heathrow will never be built, as the Nimbys and politics will stop that happening.
So we are left with a new runway at Gatwick. I may not agree with how it is built, but the big factor is that the locals are not as opposed to the idea as they are at Heathrow.
But the idea I like is the extending of the northern runway at Heathrow. It was an innovative idea thought up by a pilot and put forward by Arup, who are not noted for bad ideas.
Although it would require a lot of thought over how it would be operated, It has the great advantage that it could probably be built with not too much disruption to either operations at the airport or the traffic on the M25. You could start by building a tunnel parallel to and west of the western section of the M25, which would be opened before you actually started work on the airport. Remember that with Crossrail and other tunnels, we’re the world’s best tunnel builders.
I’ve looked at a detailed map of the area and if the problems of air traffic and organisation of the aircraft can be solved, I think that much of the noise intrusion could probably be contained within the current airport boundary.
But I have this sneaking suspicion that no new runways will be built or extended and in twenty years time or so, we’ll wonder what all the fuss was about.
Passengers will just choose their airports with more care and airports will be competing with us with better and better facilities and more point-to-point flights.
Scrapping The Car Tax Disc
It has been reported that the government is going to scrap the car tax disc.
It won’t affect me, but I think there will be an alliance of those, who want to keep it.
There will be those, who will object solely on the basis, that the only way to check will be to look it up on a database and this is an infringement on their liberties.
It will also make it difficult for busybodies to report neighbours, who constantly park outside their house, for not having a tax disc.
If the DVLA did the system properly, you would only be able to pay road tax on-line, so that would annoy the Internet refuseniks.
And then there’s the unions, who may complain about the job loses at Swansea and in the Royal Mail.
I’ll be surprised, if they are abandoned it, without a fight from a very odd alliance of troublemakers.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction
I remember a BBC television comedy series called Citizen Smith, which starred Robert Lindsay as Wolfie Smith. This sums up the theme of the series.
Wolfie is the self-proclaimed leader of the revolutionary Tooting Popular Front (the TPF, merely a small bunch of his friends), the goals of which are “Power to the People” and “Freedom for Tooting”. In reality, he is an unemployed dreamer and petty criminal whose plans fall through because of laziness and disorganisation.
But today, I was watching the BBC News and they were discussing the Lambeth slavery case.
Later in the article on Citizen Smith, this paragraph appears.
The Tooting Popular Front was inspired by the numerous minuscule leftist political groups active in the United Kingdom in the 1970s. One model may have been the then somewhat well-known “Workers’ Institute of Marxism-Leninism-Mao Zedong Thought”, a particularly far-left group led by Aravindan Balakrishnan, who became a suspect in the Lambeth slavery case of 2013.
Sadly John Sullivan, who wrote Only Fools and Horses, in addition to Citizen Smith, died in 2011, so he can’t tell us if his fictional revolutionaries were based on Balakrishnan’s group.
Politicians Must Choose Their Friends Better
P.J. O’Rourke, who is no lover of politicians, once said.
Anyway, no drug, not even alcohol, causes the fundamental ills of society. If we’re looking for the source of our troubles, we shouldn’t test people for drugs, we should test them for stupidity, ignorance, greed and love of power.
It is a test that should not just be applied to politicians, but to their friends and donors as well.
Today in the Times we have two stories about people wanting to influence politics.
The first is about the troubles of the Labour Party and their relationship with the Co-operative movement. It contains this classic quote from, a Tory MP; Brooks Newmark.
The toxic element of a great ethical institution like the Co-operative is the way the Labour Party has effectively infiltrated it and infected it because of the benefits they have been receiving from it. The only way the Labour Party could get a loan if it didn’t have the Co-operative Bank is from Wonga.
But then Ed Milliband got his own back on the Tories by complaining about some of their donors. But at least these donors, were using their own money, rather than that of members of the Co-operative movement.
Remember too, that the Liberal Democrats had a dalliance with Michael Brown.
And then there’s the story of Hotchpotch the cat who was left £10,000 by Malcolm Richards who was a large financial supporter of Ukip.
I can smell the fruitcakes.
Perhaps we need say a ten percent tax levied on every political donation. The money could be used for philanthropic purposes, like looking after distressed catfolk.
John Major Talks Sense
I have always liked John Major and I have liked him even more, since I saw his talk to the Cambridge Chief Executives Group. Then, in the depth of his troubles, he talked sense in bucketfuls and explained how the economy was coming round. He was so right in everything he said and it made me think, that what a lot of stupid idiots most of our politicians are.
Now in a speech in Norfolk, he has detailed his views. It’s reported here in the Guardian.
The first paragraph, criticises the lack of social mobility.
Sir John Major has criticised the “truly shocking” dominance of the upper echelons of power in Britain by the privately educated and affluent middle class, it was reported.
Both myself and especially my late wife, climbed from fairly ordinary families to somewhere near the top. C, who was a barrister, was one of the few of her profession, I ever met, who had come from a working class family and clawed her way up the hard way. But then we both had the sort of education, that John Major had enjoyed.
This dominance of power and especially in the Civil Service, by the privately educated middle class, is one of the things that I deplore. Last Thursday I was on a New Bus for London and sitting in one of the set of four seats in the middle. These tend to be where the chatty congregate, so as I moved over to let a guy about fifty sit down, I made a comment, as you often do. We chatted and he said that he worked in the Home Office and when I talked about the bus, I got the impression, he’d never used a NB4L before. I said I was living in Hackney after my stroke and he said he had worked with my MP. ~This could have been on the Identity Card Scheme. He pitied me in that I had to live in such a crime-ridden borough. He then asked if I thought that the country was going to the dogs. I said it wasn’t and said I was hopeful things would get better. If this idiot, is one of the Civil Service’s finest, then heaven help us. But I suppose, he went to a good independent school and probably a decent college at Oxford or Cambridge. Just like my labour MP! Not like my late wife and myself, who went to good grammar schools and a good redbrick University.
John Major went on to talk about education and is reported to have said this.
Major said: “Our education system should help children out of the circumstances in which they were born, not lock them into the circumstances in which they were born.
“We need them to fly as high as their luck, their ability and their sheer hard graft can actually take them. And it isn’t going to happen magically.”
If John Major, my late wife and myself had been born in the last couple of decades, would we have risen to the surface? The sixties was a time, when those that wanted to did and many of us, square pegs, managed to rise from the round holes where society pigeon-holed us.
I also remember that when I was at meetings of the educated in Cambridge, I was one of the shortest around, as my family hasn’t always had the good food of the middle and upper classes. But then they often didn’t have some of my better characteristics. Or my worse!
John Major also put forward his views on gay marriage.
On one issue that has caused Conservative grass-roots dissent – gay marriage – he urged people to accept times had changed. “We may be unsettled by them, but David Cameron and his colleagues have no choice but to deal with this new world. They cannot, Canute-like order it to go away because it won’t,” he said.
He is totally right. We don’t define the way the world chooses to go, but we have to live in it and accomodate it.
The report finishes by giving his views on Ukip.
And on another major area of concern, he recommended a less-confrontational approach to the threat of the UK Independence Party.
“We don’t need to make personal attacks on Ukip,” he said. “Many of the Ukip supporters are patriotic Britons who fear their country is changing.
“It is far more productive to expose the follies in their policies.”
I always wonder what would have happened to the world, if John Major had won the 1997 General Election.
The Tripe Talked About Building Warships In The UK
I have been listening and watching the debate about BAE ‘s decision to end warship building at Portsmouth and move this all to Glasgow.
Much of the argument has been based on emotional facts like Portsmouth has been building warships since the Mary Rose and political considerations of keeping Scotland happy. Little has got anything to do with having a Royal Navy that is fit for purpose.
This article on the BBC, gives a pretty good assessment of the political story. This section is the heart of the article.
So was this a sweetener to Scotland, to stave off a Yes vote? The Defence Secretary Philip Hammond was asked repeatedly in the Commons to say whether the Scottish poll had influenced his choice.
He made, broadly, three replies to the variety of ways in which he was posed that question. Firstly, he stressed that the decision to locate warship building solely in Glasgow was taken by BAE, with endorsement from the Ministry of Defence. It was, thereby, primarily an industrial rather than a political choice.
Secondly, he stressed the importance of cost. His entire statement was predicated upon the drive to contain rising costs in the aircraft carrier contract. The identification of a sole location was also, he suggested, driven by cost efficiency.
But, thirdly, he made a point with regard to the forthcoming orders for Type 26 ships. Mr Hammond’s core point in respect of the carriers was that a blunder had been made (by the predecessor government) in placing the contracts for these vessels before design was completed.
He would not repeat that error, he said, with the Type 26 contract. It would not be placed before design was “mature”. That would be at the end of 2014. He noted, twice, that would be after the Scottish referendum in September of that year.
So BAE, had to make a decision, before they know what orders are coming. They are a supposedly commercial organisation, so they will do what they see is best for the company. Given that costs are higher in Portsmouth than Glasgow for most things, I suspect that there was only two solutions; persuade the Government to buy lots of warships that we don’t need or close Portsmouth.
In the arguments I heard, no-one seemed to bring up the Falkland Islands. When Argentina invaded, as regards warships we were ill-prepared and had to scramble hard to get a task force together. But the rest as they say is history!
The one thing we can say with certainty, is that if we need to use the Navy in anger again, we’ll have the wrong ships, and they’ll be in the wrong place.
It was always thus!
I would suspect that the Navy goes through some of the most bizarre scenarios, and works out how they will handle them and that there will be a lot of improvisation in there.
Look at the operational history of HMS Ocean and you’ll find a lot of it, is in response to events. If you read the Wikipedia entry for HMS Ocean, you’ll find this gem.
While Swan Hunter viewed the ships as entirely military, “VSEL thought the design was basically a merchant ship with military hardware bolted on.” VSEL’s decision to sub-contract the build phase took advantage of lower overheads at a civilian yard as well as efficiency drives by its parent, Kværner. The cut-price build to commercial standards means that Ocean has a projected operational life of just 20 years, significantly less than that of other warships.
VSEL and Swan Hunter were completing for the work. But there was some serious innovation in the construction of this, in my view, successful warship. It’s certainly got us out of trouble a few times.
Innovation has been lacking over the years in the design of warships, which partly explains, why we and probably every other Navy has the wrong ships for a serious crisis.
One thing that should be thrown in, is if warship building is so important and BAE are so good at it, why aren’t we exporting ships to other friendly nations?
So are we subsidising warship building and BAE to an unsustainable high level?
Brent Bans Fracking
This story about how Brent Council is going to ban fracking, must be the most silly of the weekend. It’s a bit like me saying, I won’t allow someone like Kate Moss to come round to my house for a cup of tea and some scones. Fracking needing to take place in Brent, is probably just as likely! Or should that be unlikely?
Hollande Shows How To Ru(i)n Football
The top French football clubs, are showing what they think of President Hollande’s high earner tax, by going on strike, as is reported here on the BBC. Here’s the first paragraph.
French President Francois Hollande has rebuffed protests against a 75% tax on high earners, prompting football clubs to press on with a planned “strike”.
Mr Hollande stood firm by his plan to levy the tax on incomes above 1m euros (£850,000; $1.36m) at a meeting with club presidents.
Ed Milliband admitted in this interview to being a lapsed Leeds United supporter and now follows Doncaster, so expect him to raise taxes like Hollande if he gets elected, as it won’t effect any of his teams. It might even raise Doncaster into the Premier League!
We Need More Openness Everywhere
This story from the BBC is a big dose of common sense from MPs. Here’s the jist.
Councils in England should publish annual parking-charge accounts if they want to prove they are not being used as a “cash cow”, MPs have said.
I think we need much better access to all government data.
Here’s a few ideas.
If you run a company, as I’ve done several times, you have to publish a set of simple accounts, including things like cash flows and a profit and loss statement.
Why shouldn’t the government publish such a brief set of accounts, which the man on the Dalston Omnibus could understand?
But of course they don’t!
Some years ago, I tried to find the data to do create some simple accounts for UK plc. The data is there, but it is in several different places and despite help from a BBC financial journalist, I thought I had better things to do, than dig holes in treacle.
I would also like to see an anonymised database of those who are in prison. A man like me would be described as male, 60-70 in reasonable health, who was a non-smoker living in North London.
It would allow those, who make wild statements about prisons to be challenged and hopefully, it would lead to better justice and penal policies.
I must admit, that it has got a lot better in recent years with the growth of the Internet, but too often, data that would help us to have better lives is hidden from view.
The NHS is one of the worst for hiding data. There has been a lot of discussion about A & E units in recent years. Surely, a database should be available on the Internet, of all visits to this department. Again, it would be anonymised.
It would then be easy to find out for instance, how many drunks turned up at various hospitals demanding treatment.
The trouble is, that a national database in this area of the NHS, would show how A & E departments should change to get fit for the twenty-first century. Some would be obvious candidates for closure, whereas others would need to be expanded with special units.
As Charles Babbage said
Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all.
Give everybody the data, so that we can all finish the job!
You don’t make a good omelette without breaking a few eggs.
y
A Car Is Not A Luxury, It’s A Necessity
Danny Alexander has just said this on television.
In my view, after not driving for three years and going everywhere by public transport, a car is a complete pain in the arse. And when you give up your car and stop driving, it’s a total change for the better.
The Anonymous Widower 