How To Protect The UK Population From Future Pandemics
The Times today has an article, which is entitled Flu Jab: Single-Shot Vaccine ‘Within Five Years’ Could Stop Future Pandemic.
This is the introductory paragraph of The Times article.
A single-shot vaccine against flu that would provide a lifetime of protection even against future mutations could be available in “five years or less”, scientists have said after making a breakthrough.
The article is very much a must-read, but I believe if used alongside a simple proven medical test, it could be even more effective.
Since 1997, when I was diagnosed as coeliac and started eating gluten-free food exclusively, I have never had a dose of flu.
I may have had one very mild dose of Covid-19, but I have never had a serious dose.
Research At The University Of Padua
This partial immunity to Covid-19 has been shown in a peer-reviewed scientific paper, by the University of Padua in Italy.
I discuss the Padua research in Risk Of COVID-19 In Celiac Disease Patients.
Mathematical Modelling Of Pandemics
As a control engineer, mathematical modeller and statistician, I believe that our herd immunity to future pandemics could be increased, if all new entries to the UK population, like babies and migrants, were tested for coeliac disease.
These days the coeliac test is just a blood test, that costs just a few pounds and I believe that a high percentage of gluten-free coeliacs in the UK population, because of their low susceptibility to flu pandemics, would slow the spread of the pandemic.
In a nuclear reactor non-radioactive carbon rods are often used to control the speed of the reaction.
I believe that non-susceptible coeliacs on gluten-free diets would perform the same function in the UK population.
Should Diagnosed Coeliacs Be Forced To Be Gluten-Free?
I would not force coeliacs to go gluten-free.
They would have to face up to the consequences, if they didn’t.
My son was an undiagnosed coeliac, who refused to get tested.
He died at 37 of pancreatic cancer, as his immune system was useless.
Coeliac disease and a gluten-free diet is a good wingman, but undiagnosed it can kill you!
Why Should Migrants Be Tested?
I hope they are, as some might have something nasty.
But if everyone was tested for a wide range of health and genetic conditions, could it act as a deterrent to come to the UK?
Oxford And Cambridge Compared On COVID-19
In Oxford And Cambridge Compared On COVID-19, I compared the COVID-19 rates of the two University cities.
- Oxford and Cambridge are very similar-sized cities and both ae surrounded by similar counties and countryside.
- During the pandemic, Oxford had a much higher COVID-19 rate than Cambridge.
From my experiences and observations in Cambridge, I believe that the city has a high level of coeliacs.
Why Does Cambridge Have A High Level Of Coeliacs?
I doubt, it is due to the genetics of the local population, as if it was, my coeliac disease would have been picked up earlier.
The two most likely causes are.
- Someone in the Health Authority decided to have a Whack-a-Coeliac policy.
- Addenbrooke’s Hospital, in conjunction with Cambridge University and the Sanger Centre were testing the accuracy of the newly-develop genetic test for coeliac disease.
Note.
- Both routes would have needed a streamlined endoscopy unit to test all those thought to be coeliac.
- I was tested twice in such a unit to prove that I was coeliac, after the genetic test showed, I probably was.
- Fit, younger patients were pushed to have the endoscopy without a sedative, which cut the number and cost of recovery beds and staff.
- My endoscopies were performed without a sedative, by a doctor working alone.
- I was able to drive home, a few minutes after the procedure.
It was a classic case of applying good old-fashioned time-and-motion to a test that would have to be applied to a large number of patients.
If Cambridge’s army of coeliacs helped the city take the edge of the pandemic, what would a Whack-a-Coeliac policy, do for other cities?
A Very Bad Night’s Sleep
Last night, I must have woke several times in the night, before I finally gave up at about three-thirty and got up and started doing the puzzles on the Internet, and having some mugs of tea.
At four I went back to bed and was able to grab perhaps thirty minutes of sleep.
But my body hurt all over with a vengeance.
- There was pain in the back of my left hand.
- My toes hurt badly.
- My right hip was painful.
- All my skin felt very dry.
So at five, I decided to get up and have the cure-all remedy, which is a deep hot bath.
It certainly worked and I felt a lot better,
After the bath, I got back in bed, and although I didn’t sleep, I rose and left the house soon after nine to get my gluten-free breakfast in Leon on Moorgate, with added tea and orange juice.
As I left the house, I noticed that one of the upstairs windows was open, so I had to go back and shut it.
As I never open this window, I thought it must have been the cleaners, who’d left it open. Especially, as it had happened before, a couple of weeks ago.
But then, I realised what had happened.
- The window hadn’t been properly secured.
- Last night, a storm with a low-pressure area had gone through..
- The pressure had just been low enough to pop the window open.
- The low-pressure had then just sucked the water out of my body.
My hot bath had put the water back in, the way, that it had come out.
After breakfast and picking up a prescription from Boots, I took a bus home.
On arriving home, I needed to have a poo, but was unable to go, as I was just too constipated.
After a laxative and several drinks, that problem was cured.
Conclusion
Were all my problems today, down to the fact that the weather stole my body’s water and I didn’t drink enough to put it all back?
Appropriate Nutrient Supplementation In Coeliac Disease
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on PubMed.
I choose this article, as the abstract gave a good list of related problems to coeliac disease.
This is the abstract.
Reduced levels of iron, folate, vitamin B12, vitamin D, zinc, and magnesium are common in untreated celiac disease (CD) patients probably due to loss of brush border proteins and enzymes needed for the absorption of these nutrients. In the majority of patients, removal of gluten from the diet leads to histological recovery and normalization of iron, vitamin, and mineral levels. Iron deficiency anemia is the most common extra-intestinal sign of CD and usually resolves with adherence to a gluten-free diet. However, deficiencies of both folate and vitamin B12 may persist in some patients on a gluten-free diet, thus requiring vitamin supplementation to improve subjective health status. Similarly, exclusion of gluten from the diet does not always normalize bone mineral density; in these cases, supplementation of vitamin D and calcium is recommended. Resolution of mucosal inflammation may not be sufficient to abrogate magnesium deficiency. Since gluten-free cereal products have a lower magnesium content as compared with gluten-containing counterparts, a magnesium-enriched diet should be encouraged in CD patients. In this article we discuss the frequency and clinical relevance of nutrient deficiency in CD and whether and when nutrient supplementation is needed.
I am coeliac and was diagnosed at fifty, by by a mixture of the suspicions of an elderly locum, the very modern genetic test and the classic endoscopic test , in the last few years of the twentieth century.
I have to admit, that being diagnosed was a bit of a surprise.
Are Bodies Cleverer Than We Think?
Because, I had a serious stroke thirteen years ago, I am on Warfarin for life to thin my blood, so that I don’t have another stroke.
INR is short for International Normalized Ratio, which diverts on Wikipedia to the Wikipedia entry for Prothrombin Time, where these is the first two paragraphs.
The prothrombin time (PT) – along with its derived measures of prothrombin ratio (PR) and international normalized ratio (INR) – is an assay for evaluating the extrinsic pathway and common pathway of coagulation. This blood test is also called protime INR and PT/INR. They are used to determine the clotting tendency of blood, in such things as the measure of warfarin dosage, liver damage, and vitamin K status. PT measures the following coagulation factors: I (fibrinogen), II (prothrombin), V (proaccelerin), VII (proconvertin), and X (Stuart–Prower factor).
PT is often used in conjunction with the activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) which measures the intrinsic pathway and common pathway of coagulation.
That is very technical and complicated, but what does it mean practically?
Those on Warfarin to thin their blood are generally supposed to keep their INR between 2 and 3.
I test the INR myself with a Coaguchek meter from Roche and have done so for nearly ten years.
Every, so often, I discuss the level of Warfarin with my GP and we adjust the level accordingly.
Typically, NHS patients on Warfarin have their INR checked every few weeks.
But as I am a Graduate Control Engineer, who has written control strategies for chemical plants, I feel this checking every few weeks, is not enough.
At times, I have checked at a higher frequency.
Four times, I have had minor operations.With the first operation, I agreed with the surgeon, that I would lower my INR to 2.1 for the operation and raise it back to 2.5 after the operation.
It all went well and I repeated the exercise for the three other minor operations.
I have checked daily since about the beginning of April, before which, I generally tested on Mondays and Thursdays.
There were two reasons for the change of frequency.
- Regular storms seemed to roll in and for some reason, they tended to lower my INR.
- I also wrote Do Thunderstorms Cause Strokes?, after reading a paper from the United States about the relationship between thunderstorms and strokes.
So I took the prudent decision to test my INR daily.
Then on the 30th May, disaster struck.
My Coaguchek meter found out it had the wrong firmware and Roche implored me to change it.
But I am not a hardware person, so I was left unable to check my INR.
Luckily, I remembered a story from the 1960s about one of ICI’s chemical plants.
This plant was one of the first fully-digitally controlled plants controlled by an IBM 1800 computer.
It also ran 24 hours a day, seven days week.
So in the middle of the night, the plant operators got out all the computer printouts, which showed how the computer had set all the valves and controllers.
One-by-one they reset all the controls on the plant to the settings that the computer had used for the last few days.
Using, this computer-assisted mode the plant was kept running, until engineers could fix the computer.
On the 30th May, my INR was a little bit high at 2.9 and I was using a dosage of Warfarin of 4 mg. one day and 3.5 mg. the next.
The strange dosage was one, that I know from experiment over time produces an INR of 2.5.
My actual average Warfarin dose was 3.73 over the last thirty days and my INR, as measured most days was 2.6 over the same period.
So, I did what the engineers did on the chemical plant, kept calm and carried on.
Yesterday my son fixed the Coaguchek meter and I was able to take my first reading for 17 days. It was 2.7 and only 0.1 higher than the 30-day average on the 30th May.
I had successfully jumped the gap in the readings.
Conclusion
Most systems have an equilibrium. Make sure you know it.
Heat-Related Hospital Admissions And Deaths In London
I never saw my father ride on a deep Underground line, like the Northern or the Piccadilly, as he always said the air was terrible.
That was despite we lived within walking distance of Oakwood station and his print works was just a hundred metres from Wood Green Underground station.
But then he was a man, who always had a car, when I knew him, so I suppose he felt he better use it.
On one occasion, he took me to the Printing Industries Fair at Earl’s Court, which is just seventeen stops on the Piccadilly Line from Wood Green Underground station, as it still is today.
His route was as follows.
He left his MG Magnette outside the print works on Station Road.
As this picture I took in 2012 shows, parking wasn’t too difficult.
We then walked up the hill to Wood Green station, which is now called Alexandra Palace, from where we took a steam-hauled local train into King’s Cross.
From King’s Cross, we took a Metropolitan Line train to Hammersmith station.
At Hammersmith, we changed stations and then took a train to Baron’s Court station for Earl’s Court Exhibition Centre.
Today, the route between Alexandra Palace and Earl’s Court stations is very different.
- You can change trains at Moorgate, Farringdon or King’s Cross.
- The oldest trains, that you’ll travel on would have been built in 2008.
- All trains will be fully air-conditioned.
I feel, that I could probably get my father to use this route. Although, I doubt it would happen, as he would have turned 120, at the start of this year.
The Growth Of Air Conditioning
Many cars since the 1980s have been airconditioned and now trains are following that route.
In London these are some dates, when trains were air-conditioned.
- Circle, District, Hammersmith & City and Metropolitan from 2008.
- Elisabeth Line from 2017.
- Gospel Oak and Barking from 2019.
- Greater Anglia from 2019/20.
- Lee Valley Lines from 2019.
- London Midland from 2023.
- London Overground from 2009.
- Southern from 2003.
- Southeastern from 2003.
- Thameslink from 2014.
Each year, more and more trains will be air-conditioned.
Conclusion
Has this growth of air-conditioning reduced the number of cases of heatstroke and other heat related admissions to hospitals?
£20 Electronic Ear-Clips Train The Body To Decrease Blood Pressure
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article in The Times.
These two paragraphs outline how the device is used.
A £20 device that delivers “tingling” electric pulses to the ears and can be worn at home could be almost twice as effective as drugs at reducing blood pressure, a neuroscientist has said.
Early trials suggest that wearing the small electrodes clipped to the ears for half an hour per day over two weeks while relaxing, watching TV or eating can reduce blood pressure by up to 15mm of mercury (mm Hg), compared with 8mm Hg to 10mm Hg for drugs such as Ace inhibitors or beta-blockers.
It appears the device has been developed at University College London.
Would I Use Electronic Ear-Clips To Control My Blood Pressure?
Soon after my wife died in 2007, my cholesterol levels rose.
The Ipswich Town Physiotherapist, who was a drinking partner before matches at Portman Road, recommended that I see his dietician.
She identified the following.
- My diet had changed since my my wife’s death, as I was choosing the food and doing the cooking.
- She suspected, that I wasn’t eating enough soluble fibre.
- I was eating enough fruit and vegetables.
Her solution was two-fold.
- Swap butter and other spreads for Benecol.
- Make sure, I eat, at least one small tin of baked beans every week.
Obviously, as I had been found to be coeliac in 1997, I should stay gluten-free.
I’ve seen other dieticians since and none have criticised, what she said.
No doctor has also ever said, that there is something wrong with my cholesterol.
After my stroke in 2010, I was put on Warfarin to thin my blood.
The only addition to my cocktail of drugs, was that after an unexplained collapse, I was put on blood pressure drugs.
So to return to the question I asked at the top of this section.
I may take six or seven drugs and vitamin tablets every day, but swapping one or two for half-an-hour with an electronic device wouldn’t be too much trouble.
That is, if I could tolerate the device, as I’m not keen on headphones.
But it could be an interesting alternative to taking pharmaceutical drugs.
How To Avoid Middle-Aged Spread: Go To Private School
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article in The Times.
This is the sub-heading.
In their mid-forties, those who were educated privately are more likely to be a healthy weight and have lower blood pressure, the research found
These two paragraphs give some more details.
People who go to private school or a Russell Group university are healthier and slimmer in middle age, research has shown.
In their mid-forties, those who were educated privately are more likely to be a healthy weight, have lower blood pressure and perform better on a cognitive task than those who went to state schools.
Note.
- I went to a good grammar school and a Russell Group University.
- So did my late wife!
- Both us were slim and fairly fit until our late fifties.
The research was from University College London.
Can I Please Have A Good Night’s Sleep?
In all my seventy-six years, I’ve never had trouble getting to sleep. I can sleep on trains and in planes and like my father, I have no trouble going to sleep in a hard upright chair.
But everything changed two weeks ago. I would go to bed at my usual 23:00 and perhaps drop off for a quarter if an hour and then start to lie there fully awake.
Normally, I now get up at about two-thirty and do the puzzles in The Times.
Welcome to the chewed-string lifestyle.
I’ve tried herbal sleeping tables, but they don’t help!
I went to see my GP and she made no suggestions.
Can I Please Have A Good Night’s Sleep?
Council Wants To Only Serve Vegan Food At Events
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the sub-heading.
A West Yorkshire council will only provide vegan food at its meetings and events if a new catering plan is approved.
These three paragraphs explain the policy.
Calderdale Council wants its menus to be entirely plant-based, with a preference for seasonal and non-processed foods.
The council adopted a climate change emergency policy in 2020, which included a commitment to using plant-based catering.
Senior councillors will be asked to recommend that the vegan food scheme is adopted at a meeting on 3 June.
I am coeliac and have to eat a gluten-free diet. Sometimes, I will eat meals marked as vegan, but only after I have checked they are gluten-free.
A couple of times in my life, I have been told that I will be fine with a restaurants’s organic vegan food.
These incidents weren’t in the UK and I quickly moved on to a restaurant, which served food, that I could eat.
But you don’t know, where these sort of restrictions will lead.
- Suppose a Muslim-dominated council, insisted that all women kept their hair covered.
- Or all butcher’s shops in the area were to be closed!
- Will the local hosputal have to serve vegan food?
Any restaurant or catering facility, must serve, what its patrons want or need to eat.
An Incident In My Childhood
I must have been about five or six.
All I can remember, is that she found me very red all over, grabbed me and took me upstairs where she put me in a bath.
I don’t think, she called the doctor.
I now wonder, if the incident was when a low-pressure went over and it drained the water out of my body.
Last night, there was rain in the night, and I’ve woken up with a pain in my hip. I shall have a bath soon.
Strangely, none of my three boys seemed to suffer similar incidents. So perhaps, they don’t have my strange leaky skin?
The Anonymous Widower 