How Cambridge University Test Students For The Covids
In Tom Whipple’s excellent article in The Times today, which is entitled In Search Of A Less Painful Route Through The Long Covid Winter, there is this paragraph.
They also point to a different, smaller-scale, test. In the summer, Cambridge University decided to go its own way on testing. Each “bubble” of students put their swabs to be tested together. If they contained a positive — validated through a far more effective laboratory test — they were each retested. At the start of the autumn term, the university experienced the usual run of cases. In the final week, when other universities were seeing mass outbreaks, all 10,000 students were tested. There were zero positives.
Could this simple method, speed up mass testing of residential areas, care homes and other universities?
Is The Pfizer Vaccine The New Betamax?
To me, the Pfizer vaccine may work well, but the precautions needed to deliver it safely are so onerous, I can’t see it being the most successful of vaccines.
If healthcare professionals and GP surgeries in the UK, are saying that the minus seventy delivery route is going to be difficult, then how difficult is it going to be to deliver it, in parts of India, Africa and South America.
I can’t see the current Pfizer vaccine lasting very long, before it is either overtaken by one of the many others vaccines under development or Pfizer reformulate it, so it has an easier method of delivery.
It truly is the new Betamax.
My Advice To Coeliacs On A Gluten-Free Diet Concerning The Covids
As a coeliac, I have been worried about the Covids and researching the statistics for some months.
Who Are Likely To Be Coeliac?
In the next sub-sections, I look at various groups.
Ashkenazi Jews
I am coeliac because there is an unbroken genetic line to my great-great-great-grandfather; Robert, who was a Jewish tailor from Königsberg in East Prussia. Census records in the UK, say that he arrived around 1800 and setup business in Bexley. Like many Jews from East Prussia, he had to leave, when he became eighteen, because he was male, Jewish and not one of the privileged families.
I know little of him, except from a brief chat from my father, whose own grandfather had met him as a child and remembered him, as a small elderly man, who didn’t speak any English.
I did get some more details of the Jewish community in East Prussia from a curator at the German Historical Museum in Berlin, and I don’t think she was proud at her countrymen’s treatment of the Jews before the Second World War. By the 1930s many had fled to the UK or the United States.
Wikipedia has a detailed History of the Jews in Königsberg.
In May this year at the height of the first wave of the pandemic, I wrote Jews In The UK And COVID-19, which is based on three articles in the Times of Israel.
This is an extract from my post.
I am also fairly sure, that my coeliac disease came from my Ashkenazi Jewish genes.
This second article on The Times of Israel is entitled Jewish Charity Warns Of Coeliac ‘Stigma’ As Half-A-Million Said Undiagnosed.
This is the introductory paragraph.
A Jewish charity says there is a “stigma” surrounding coeliac disease in the Jewish community, after a national charity warned that there were still half a million people in the UK who are undiagnosed.
I would assume that the half-a-million figure refers to all the population of the UK, as there are only about half that number of Jews in the UK.
Could coeliac stigma mean that there many older Jews, who are coeliac, have not been diagnosed and their poorer immune systems make them more vulnerable to COVID-19?
In the post, I also came to this conclusion.
I should say, that I’m no medic, but just a humble engineer, mathematician and statistician, who has nearly sixty years experience of analysing data.
That experience applied to coeliac disease and COVID-19, says that undiagnosed coeliac disease, is not helping our fight against COVID-19!
I stand by that statement today.
The Elderly
I suppose at seventy-three, I’m in this group too!
In April this year I wrote A Thought On Deaths Of The Elderly From Covid-19, where this was the conclusion.
Many of those 120,000 coeliacs will have been born before 1960 and have a high probably of not having been diagnosed. for the simple reason, that a childhood test for coeliac disease didn’t exist.
Will these undiagnosed coeliacs have a compromised immune system, that makes them more susceptible to Covid-19?
It has been said, that a good immune system helps you fight Covid-19!
I heard today of an 85-year-old coeliac, who was diagnosed at forty and is bright as a button on a gluten-free diet. They have already had their jab. Excellent!
The Irish
As with the Ashkenazi Jews, the Irish have suffered bad living conditions and famine and they seem to have more than their fair share of coeliac disease.
Black People With Slaves As Ancestors
In the last thirty years or so, I have come across three or four West Africans with coeliac disease, including one, who was an excellent chef in a pub, near where I lived at the time. I also met an American vet online called DogtorJ, who wrote this paper on his web site, which is entitled Why Is The Plane Of Our Nation’s Health In A Death Spiral? He was referring to the United States, but a lot of the points he makes can equally apply to the UK and other nations.
In one section he talks about the historical atrocity of the slave trade from a medical perspective, where he says this.
I read in one source that approximately 6% of the slaves never made it to their destinations, many of whom died of dysentery. It suddenly dawned on me that they could have easily been the newest batch of gluten intolerants. These transplanted people had never eaten wheat-based foods in the past and yet here they were, under the worst possible conditions, having this new dietary challenge suddenly thrust upon them in the form of the white man’s bread.
DogtorJ’s reasoning applies to Afro-Americans, but it could surely apply to all slaves and their descendants, just as one coeliac ancestor passed me the disease.
People From The Indian Sub-Continent
I always thought that the Indian Sub-Continent was fairly free of coeliac disease, as Indian cuisine is rice-based and I’ve had many excellent gluten-free meals in Indian restaurants all over the UK.
But then I found this article on the Indian Journal Of Research Medicine.
I wrote about the article in Coeliac Disease: Can We Avert The Impending Epidemic In India?
I finished with these sentences.
What do I know? I’m just an engineer and a coeliac who has a good nose for problems!
But please someone! Research the connection between undiagnosed coeliac disease and COVID-19!
My son; George was an undiagnosed coeliac with a gluten-rich and smoky lifestyle. He died at just 37 from pancreatic cancer.
Did he have a poor immune system, which meant he couldn’t fight the cancer? One expert on cancer said, “Yes!”
Are people from the sub-continent suffering from the same problems, that slaves did several centuries ago?
Research From The University Of Padua
This paper on the US National Library of Medicine, which is from the University of Padua in Italy.
The University followed a group of 138 patients with coeliac disease, who had been on a gluten-free diet for at least six years, through the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in Padua.
This sentence, sums up the study.
In this analysis we report a real life “snapshot” of a cohort of CeD patients during the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Italy, all followed in one tertiary centre in a red area of Northern Italy. Our data show, in accordance with Emmi et al., the absolute absence of COVID-19 diagnosis in our population, although 18 subjects experienced flu-like symptoms with only one having undergone naso-pharyngeal swab.
It says that no test subject caught Covid-19, in an admittedly smallish number of patients.
But it reinforces my call for more research into whether if you are a diagnosed coeliac on a long-term gluten-free diet, you have an immune system, that gives you a degree of protection from the Covids.
It should be remembered, that Joe West of Nottingham University has shown, that diagnosed coeliacs on a gluten-free diet have a 25% lower risk of cancer compared to the general population.
My Advice To Coeliacs On A Gluten-Free Diet Concerning The Covids
I shall be carrying on with my gluten-free diet, as the respected University of Padua found no problems in doing so!
A Small Piece Of Research
If you are on a gluten-free diet or you are a coeliac, you might like to fill in my poll, if you haven’t suffered from the Covids.
Did I Have A Close Brush With Covid-19?
In January, this year, I wrote a post called Mule Trains Between Liverpool And Norwich, where I went between Liverpool and Sheffield on a train formed of of several Class 153 trains.
I didn’t think of it, at the time, I wrote the post, but at Manchester Piccadilly station, the train filled up with a large number of Chinese students returning to University.
The students were happy and laughing, but you wouldn’t have complained about them, but there must have been twenty taking most of the available seats in my carriage. I shared a table with three!
At the time, Covid-19 had hardly started to invade the UK, with most cases starting in March.
But, after hearing someone’s story on the radio yesterday, I wonder about the health of those students.
I certainly, didn’t catch the covids seriously after that train journey and haven’t had the virus since, to my knowledge. But thinking back I may have felt unwell the next day.
But after reading the scientific paper from the University of Padua, that I wrote about in Risk of COVID-19 In Celiac Disease Patients, perhaps I was protected by a natural immunity provided by being a coeliac on a long-term gluten-free diet.
As my father said, I was born lucky!
Risk Of COVID-19 In Celiac Disease Patients
The title of this post, is the same as that of this paper on the US National Library of Medicine, which is from the University of Padua in Italy.
This is an extract from the paper.
Among the 171 patients included in our registry and on gluten free diet from at least six months, we contacted 138 CeD subjects (80.7%), aged 41.3 years old (SD 14.9), 73.9% were females on a gluten-free diet from a mean of 6.6 years (SD 6.0). Two patients had a diagnosis of refractory celiac disease type one and one of refractory celiac disease type 2. Among them, none reported to have been diagnosed with COVID-19, whereas 19 CeD patients experienced flu-like symptoms with 1 of them having undergone a negative naso-pharyngeal swab.
This is another sentence, summing up the study.
In this analysis we report a real life “snapshot” of a cohort of CeD patients during the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Italy, all followed in one tertiary centre in a red area of Northern Italy. Our data show, in accordance with Emmi et al., the absolute absence of COVID-19 diagnosis in our population, although 18 subjects experienced flu-like symptoms with only one having undergone naso-pharyngeal swab.
That is very firm and the report finishes with this sentence.
We only evaluated patients on a gluten free diet, so far no data on the risk at the time of diagnosis can be extrapolated from this study. Long-term clinical and epidemiological studies in celiac disease will be of great utility in the field but these preliminary data seem to suggest that CeD patients are not at higher risk of COVID-19.
Note.
- SARS-CoV-2 causes Covid-19.
- All their patients were suffering from coeliac disease and were on a gluten-free diet for more than six months.
I’m no medic, but I’m a seventy-three-year-old man with coeliac disease on a gluten-free diet.
I shall be sticking to my diet, in addition to social distancing.
How Do We Protect Ourselves From Covidiots Like These?
I had to laugh when I heard this story on the BBC!
They gave a summary on Radio 5 of this story from Reuters, which is entitled London Police Irritated By Makeshift Nightclub In Barbershop Basement.
But I do suspect, that the Soho police were a lot more than irritated.
I certainly am furious at such irresponsible behaviour!
Covid: Genes Hold Clues To Why Some People Get Severely Ill
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the opening paragraph.
Why some people with coronavirus have no symptoms and others get extremely ill is one of the pandemic’s biggest puzzles.
It is now less of a puzzle, thanks to research led by the University of Edinburgh.
These paragraphs explain the methodology.
Scientists looked at the DNA of patients in more than 200 intensive care units in UK hospitals.
They scanned each person’s genes, which contain the instructions for every biological process – including how to fight a virus.
Their genomes were then compared with the DNA of healthy people to pinpoint any genetic differences, and a number were found – the first in a gene called TYK2.
One of the other genes mentioned is IFNAR2, where this was said.
Variations in a gene called IFNAR2 were also identified in the intensive care patients.
IFNAR2 is linked to a potent anti-viral molecule called interferon, which helps to kick-start the immune system as soon as an infection is detected.
It’s thought that producing too little interferon can give the virus an early advantage, allowing it to quickly replicate, leading to more severe disease.
I know a bit about interferon and I must admit I’ve made a bit of profit on shares in Synairgen, which are linking interferon with an inhaler.
I then typed “coeliac disease and interferon” into Google and found this article on The Lancet, which is entitled Onset Of Coeliac Disease and Interferon Treatment.
My medical knowledge is very limited, but it does appear that if you are coeliac on a gluten-free diet, you don’t get any problems, with interferon.
The plot thickens!
Not for nothing, do some doctors call coeliac disease, the Many-Headed Hydra.
Syon Lane Station – 7th December 2020
The step-free footbridge at Syon Lane station has been completed and open for some time now.
I took these pictures today.
Note.
- The footbridge only has one lift on Platform 2.
- The step-free route to Platform 1 is a level footpath, which leads to the bus stop.
- There are three sets of stairs, two to Platform 2 and one to Platform 1.
- There is also a seat designed for Covid-19.
My first post on this project was Syon Lane Station To Go Step-Free, which was posted on April 30, 2019.
These smaller rail projects must be built in a more timely manner.
Thoughts On Mass Vaccination
We should steal an idea from the French.
In the first wave of the virus, they had to move seriously ill patients all over the country and to Germany, where there was bed space.
So they converted a TGV to a hospital train.
This page on the SNCF web site, is entitled Covid-10: Behind the Scenes Of Our High-Speed Hospital Train.
Could we not create a Vaccination Train using one of the recently withdrawn InterCity 125s?
They are easily shortened to any convenient length and the carriages have a very smooth ride.
The French converted their hospital train in 48 hours, so surely we can do as well!
The trains have the advantage, that they are certified go to over ninety percent of UK main line railway stations.
Network Rail have a track inspection train, called the New Measurement Train, that works a pattern all over the UK. It is based on an InterCity 125 and is full of delicate instruments, designed to keep the railways of the UK safe.
The picture shows Network Rail’s New Measurement Train at Westbury station.
The Vaccination Train or Trains could be based at a convenient central location, where the vaccine would be safely stored.
- Trains would be loaded overnight with the vaccine and other stores and locate early to their site for the day.
- Sites would typically be stations, where a platform existed that was long enough for the train.
- Staff to both process the vaccine and treat patients could either go on the train or be drawn from local medical staff, or be a mixture of the two.
- Specialists handling the vaccine would probably come from the centre, as this would ensure totally correct handling of the vaccine.
- They would set up at a suitable site and handle the patients booked for the day.
- Injections could even take place on the train, in specially fitted out carriages.
I would think, that the train would be self contained and generate all its own electricity.
Why I’ll Delay Having The Coronavirus Vaccine
The vaccines are coming for the covids, but I won’t be having a jab, if one is offered to me, in the first round. I may not be offered one, as I am only 73 and in good health.
But there are many out there, who need the vaccine more than I do, who will be given lower priority than myself.
So I’ll wait!
I am also a diagnosed coeliac on a gluten-free diet and my statistical researches and news reports, show that communities and groups with high levels of undiagnosed coeliacs have suffered badly from the covids.
These communities and groups include.
- Anybody born before 1960, as there was no test for coeliac disease in children before then.
- Ashkenazi Jews. My coeliac genes come from an ancestor in this group.
- Irish
- Caribbean. West Africans have a tendency to coeliac disease and what better way to bring it out, than starve them on slave ships and feed them on only bread and water.
I have also found a research paper, that shows, that India could now experience a coeliac disease epidemic, caused by modern strains of wheat. See Coeliac Disease: Can We Avert The Impending Epidemic In India?
Coeliacs on a gluten-free diet, are an interesting group, in that according to peer-reviewed research by Joe West of Nottingham University, they are 25 % less likely to suffer from cancer.
How can one disease protect you from another?
My coeliac disease was indicated by low-levels of B12, as gluten was damaging my gut and stopping it absorbing vital vitamins. By removing the gluten from my diet, my B12 levels returned to normal.
So it’s the diet that protects my health.
If you think, you are coeliac, don’t be put off by horror stores of multiple endoscopies and the difficulty of sticking to a gluten-free diet. I may have been one of the first individuals tested, by the current genetic method, which is now used by most GPs. A blood sample is sent off for a test and that is generally all that is done in most cases. I heard in 48 hours.
So why is it beneficial in the case of cancer?
It can only be, that with all those vitamins, coeliacs on a gluten-free diet have a very healthy immune system.
So does, this immune system, help protect coeliacs from the covids?
Until proven otherwise, my statistical research, thinks it does!
So I believe, that I can afford to wait.
Has Good Project Management Helped The UK Get The Vaccine Early?
Professor Van-Tam, this morning on BBC Breakfast, praised the planning of the drug companies and the various health bodies in charge of certification of the vaccines.
As someone, who was at the heart of the Project Management Revolution in the 1970s and 1980s, this cheers me.
Looking back, my biggest contribution to project management, was to prove that you didn’t need to use a large mainframe computer and software would work on a small desk-sized machine and ultimately on a personal computer, thus bringing project management to everyone.
The Anonymous Widower 