A Curious Link Between Pancreatic Cancer And COVID-19
i am involved in fund raising for pancreatic cancer research at Liverpool University, because my youngest son died of the awful disease, at just thirty-seven, leaving a widow and an eight-year-old daughter.
I am also a passionate analyser of data and databases.
For a few weeks now, I have had a feeling that there is a connection between pancreatic cancer and the old Austro-Hungarian Empire.
I found this simple description of the Austro-Hungarian Empire on this page on the Internet.
The former Austro-Hungarian Empire was spread over a large part of Central Europe, it comprises present Austria and Hungary as well as the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bosnia, Croatia and parts of present Poland, Romania, Italy, Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia and Montenegro.
I had been looking at pancreatic cancer data on the World Life Expectancy database, which is based on World Health Organisation data.
I have built this table, which shows the top twenty countries for a death rate from pancreatic cancer.
These are the columns.
- Country
- Rate of pancreatic cancer deaths per 100,000 of the population.
- Quarantine or Travel Corridor based on this page of the Government web site.
- Member of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
These are the top twenty countries.
- Hungary – 11.35 – Quarantine – AHE
- Uruguay – 10.72 – Quarantine
- Armenia – 10.34 – Quarantine
- Malta – 10.01 – Quarantine
- Czech Republic – 9.89 – Quarantine – AHE
- Estonia – 9.26 – Travel Corridor
- Iceland – 9.21 – Quarantine
- Israel – 9.18 – Quarantine
- Slovakia – 9.17 – Quarantine – AHE
- Austria – 9.13 – Quarantine – AHE
- Finland – 8.78 – Travel Corridor
- Japan – 8.74 – Travel Corridor
- Latvia – 8.72 – Travel Corridor
- Germany – 8.68 – Travel Corridor
- Slovenia – 8.55 – Quarantine – AHE
- Denmark – 8.51 – Quarantine
- Netherlands – 8.38 – Quarantine
- Croatia – 8.30 – Quarantine – AHE
- Lithuania – 8.21 – Travel Corridor
- Luxembourg – 8.15 – Quarantine
Note.
- I would hope that the Government’s Travel Corridor list has been devised in a scientifically-correct manner.
- Am I right to assume that the Travel Corridor list is a good measure of the level of Covid-19 in the country?
- The pancreatic cancer data is from 2018.
Of the countries I mentioned earlier, as being partly in the Austro-Hungarian Empire, only Montenegro is in the top thirty countries for pancreatic cancer deaths.
My Thoughts On The Data
These are my thoughts on the data.
The Significance Of The Austro-Hungarian Empire
Consider.
- All the countries that were fully or partly in the Austro-Hungarian Empire are on the Government Quarantine List, with the exception of Italy.
- Many will argue, including myself, that Italy, has too high a Covid-19 rate for a visit.
- Austria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia are in the top twenty countries for pancreatic cancer deaths.
It looks to me, that there is a correlation in there somewhere.
Germany And Japan Are The Odd Ones Out
The list of countries with high levels of pancreatic cancer, where there is no quarantine are.
- Estonia
- Finland
- Japan
- Latvia
- Germany
- Lithuania
If you eliminate the Baltic States and Finland from the worse countries for pancreatic cancer, you’re left with Germany and Japan.
Is There A Jewish Dimension?
I ask this question for these reasons.
- Israel is eighth on the pancreatic cancer list and has high levels of Covid-19 according to various news reports, like this one on the BBC, which is entitled Coronavirus: Israel Tightens Second Lockdown Amid Acrimony.
- I am not Jewish, but my great-great-great-grandfather from Konigsberg probably was and it looks like I inherited my coeliac disease from him and gave it to my son, who died from pancreatic cancer.
- The Baltic States and Finland, don’t seem to have large Jewish populations for various reasons and they have high levels of pancreatic cancer, but low levels of Covid-19.
- Germany has the third largest Jewish population in Europe, but seems to have done well in fighting Covid-19. Is that because their well-funded healthcare system has worked?
- Wikipedia states that, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was favourable to the Jews and even a sizeable numbers of its Army officers in Word War One were Jewish.
- According to reports locally and my observations, it appears that the Jewish community in Hackney, where I live has been badly hit by Covid-19.
I need an appropriate historian to give me answers.
Conclusion
I believe the correlation between pancreatic cancer and Covid-19 could be rather strong. More research needs to be done, as to why.
But I do wonder, if undiagnosed coeliac disease, as in my son, could be the alligator in the swamp.
Undiagnosed coeliacs seem to have poor immune systems, which makes them more susceptible to everything, that’s going around.
The more I learn about coeliac disease and its myriad effects on health, the more I’m convinced that it should be one of the diseases checked for in all young children.
It would certainly have changed my miserable always-ill childhood for the better.
A Useful Tool
The Times has added a useful tool to its web site, which shows the latest figures for the covids, according to a particular post code. It also shows the rules that apply.
This is the display for Hackney, where I live.
And this is the one for Liverpool, where I go regularly, although, I’ve only been once since March.
I shall use these displays to check before I travel.
Perhaps, The Times or another organ, should do something of a similar ilk for countries and places, we might want to visit.
Thoughts On COVID-19 On Merseyside
Merseyside is in trouble with the covids.
These are the number of lab confirmed cases per 100,000 population for local authorities in the area, as of the 1st October 2020.
- Halton – 1108.1
- Knowsley – 1388
- Liverpool – 1244.5
- Sefton – 1037.6
- St. Helens – 1230.4
- Wirral – 1185.5
My London Borough of Hackney, which is demographically, a bit like poorer parts of Liverpool, has a rate of 524.3.
But the gold standard to my mind is Cambridge, which has a rate of only 380.6.
Oxford, which is a very similar city to Cambridge has a much higher rate of 799.5,
Why Is Cambridge Doing So Well?
I was diagnosed as a coeliac at Addenbrooke’s Hospital in Cambridge, twenty-three years ago.
According to my consultant in the City at the time, Cambridge has a VERY high level of diagnosed coeliacs.
He told me, that he had more coeliac patients, than any other gastroenterologist in the UK.
So why is the number of coeliacs so high in Cambridge?
I feel it is because Cambridge had a Whack-a-Coeliac policy in the 1990s, where they attempted to diagnose as many coeliacs as they could find.
I was certainly diagnosed at that time and judging by the speed they did the initial diagnosis, I suspect, they were using one of the first genetic tests. They were also doing endoscopies without anaesthetic to increase throughput!
Coeliacs, Cancer And The Covids
Diagnosed coeliacs on a gluten-free diet have a strong immune system, which helps protect them from cancer, as has been shown by Joe West at Nottingham University.
I should also add, that none of my coeliac acquaintances have had a severe dose of the covids.
So does our stronger immune systems give us protection from the covids?
This could explain, why an area like Cambridge has a lower level of the covids than Oxford.
Why Is Merseyside In Trouble?
The Irish, because of historic famine, have higher levels of coeliac disease.
Comedians from the City have joked about Liverpool being the capital of Ireland for decades.
Could it be that there is a high percentage of undiagnosed coeliacs on Merseyside?
If this is true, could these undiagnosed coeliacs, with poorer immune systems, be easy pickings for the covids?
Conclusion
These actions should be taken.
- Merseyside needs a Whack-a-Coeliac policy, if it doesn’t have one! It would certainly, improve cancer rates!
- Every in-patient with the covids, should be given a quick blood test for coeliac disease.
- Other research needs to be done to find out the any link between coeliac disease and the covids!
Not for nothing is coeliac disease regularly called the Many-Headed Hydra by some doctors and researchers.
Fun With COVID-19
I find the term COVID-19 rather bland and you may have noticed that on this blog, I am tending to call it the Covids.
I feel, that the Covids has a certain edge to it. A superhero might kick someone in the Covids.
It also offers possibilities for creating a long name based on the letters.
How about Chinese Orrible Vaccine Impossible Death Syndrome?
I’m sure someone can do much better than that!
Environmentally-Friendly InterCity 125 Trains
InterCity 125 trains are not the most environmentally-friendly of beasts.
- They do not meet the modern emission regulations.
- They still emit a lot of carbon dioxide.
- They is also a deadline of 2040, when UK railways will be net-carbon-free.
There might also be individuals and groups, who feel that these elderly trains with so much history, should be replaced by modern zero-carbon trains.
- Would the same groups accept electrification with all the wires?
- Would the train operating companies, accept battery power with long waits for charging?
- Would hydrogen be viable on the numerous branch lines in Devon and Cornwall, with some difficult access to depots by road. Especially, if the hydrogen had to be brought from say Bristol or Southampton!
But various engineering solutions are emerging.
Biodiesel
This is probably the simplest solution and I suspect most modern engines can run on biodiesel with simple modifications. InterCity 125s have modern engines from German firm and Rolls-Royce subsidiary; MTU, so they probably have a solution in their tool-box.
Computerisation
I have never built a computer control system for anything, but I did work with the first engineers in the world, who computerised a chemical plant.
They always emphasised, if you could nudge the plant into the best area of operation, you’d have a much more efficient plant, that produced more product from the same amount of feedstock.
At about the same time, aircraft engine manufacturers were developing FADEC or Full Authority Digital Engine Control, which effectively let the engine’s control system take over the engine and do what the pilot had requested. The pilot can take back control, but if FADEC fails, the engine is dead.
But judging by the numbers of jet aircraft, that have engine failures, this scenario can’t be very common, as otherwise the tabloids would be screaming as they did recently over the 737 MAX.
Now, I don’t know whether the MTU 16V4000 R41R engines fitted to the InterCity 125, have an intelligent FADEC to improve their performance or whether they are of an older design.
If you worry about FADEC, when you fly, then read or note these points.
- Read the FADEC’s Wikipedia entry.
- Your car is likely to be heavily computerised.
- If you took a modern train or bus to the airport, that certainly will have been heavily computerised.
You could be more likely to meet someone with COVID-19 on a flight, than suffer an air-crash, depending on where you travel.
Rolls-Royce’s Staggering Development
Staggering is not my word, but that of Paul Stein, who is Rolls-Royce’s Chief Technology Officer.
He used the word in a press release, which I discuss in Our Sustainability Journey.
To electrify aviation, Rolls-Royce has developed a 2.5 MW generator, based on a small gas-turbine engine, which Paul Stein describes like this.
Amongst the many great achievements from E-Fan X has been the generator – about the same size as a beer keg – but producing a staggering 2.5 MW. That’s enough power to supply 2,500 homes and fully represents the pioneering spirit on this project.
This generator is designed for flight and the data sheet for the gas-turbine engine is available on the Internet.
- It has a weight of under a couple of tonnes compared to the thirteen tonnes of the diesel engine and generator in a Class 68 locomotive.
- It is also more powerful than the diesel.
- It looks to be as frugal, if not more so!
- Rolls-Royce haven’t said if this gas-turbine can run on aviation biofuel, but as many of Rolls-Royce’s large engines can, I would be very surprised if it couldn’t!
Rolls-Royce’s German subsidiary is a large producer of rail and maritime diesel engines, so the company has the expertise to customise the generator for rail applications.
Conclusion
I think it is possible, that the Class 43 power-cars can be re-engined to make them carbon-neutral.
Is It Time To Use The Humour Option?
I was coming back from Hampshire tonight, and this guy was checking tickets in Winchester station.
His simple mask says “To The Trains” with a tasteful arrow! It certainly made me smile.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic started, we have used all serious and politically correct methods to fight the virus.
And we all seem to be getting more worried and miserable!
But what would those great comedians of the past like Arthur Askey, Dave Allen, Les Dawson, Ken Dodd, Groucho Marx and Max Miller have said and what songs would the likes of Spike Jones have sung?
I find it strange, that you see so few humorous masks and how many have been dressed to amuse, by perhaps wearing a mask, which matches, what they are wearing?
I know if C were still alive and I was still making her summer dresses as I sometimes did in the 1960s and 1970s, I’d have made her at least one flowery dress with a matching mask.
Humour is a very serious business!
Chief Scientific Advisor And Chief Medical Officer Briefing On Coronavirus (COVID-19): 21 September 2020
The title of this post, is the same as that of this page on the Government web site.
The page gives full transcript of what was said.
This is a paragraph.
When people have an infection, the vast majority of people get an antibody response, and we know that some of those antibodies are so-called neutralising antibodies. They do indeed protect against the virus. We also know that they fade over time, and there are cases of people becoming re-infected. So this is not an absolute protection, and it will potentially decrease over time. What we see is that something under eight per cent of the population have been infected as we measure the antibodies, so about eight per cent, so 3 million or so people, may have been infected and have antibodies. It means that the vast majority of us are not protected in any way and are susceptible to this disease. There may be other forms of protection that increase that number a little bit, other parts of the immune system, but it does mean the vast majority of the population remain susceptible, and therefore you’d expect spread throughout them. The number of people with antibodies is a little higher in the cities, and it may be as high as 17 per cent or so in London. That may confer a little slowing of spread but not much more than that. At that point I’ll pass over to Chris to take you through some of the other features of the epidemic. Chris.
Note that I have indicated some of Professor Vallance’s words in colour.
What does he mean?
Could he be alluding to some people having a better immune system than others and are less likely to get COVID-19?
- I am a coeliac on a gluten-free diet.
- Research by Joe West at Nottingham University has shown that coeliacs like me, are 25 % less likely to suffer from cancer. Could this be because of our condition or our diet, coeliacs like me, have a very strong immune system?
- I have various coeliac contacts, including several who read this blog and so far, I haven’t heard of one, who has suffered a bad dose of the covids.
Research should be done to see if there is a beneficial link between coeliac disease and COVID-19!
Conclusion
Patrick Vallance was certainly alluding to something!
LNER’s Cheaper Advanced Tickets Can Be Bought Just Before You Travel
Yesterday, I had a ticket on the 15:47 train, back from Doncaster to London Kings Cross. I had bought it on-line a few days ago for £23.50.
But, I was unable to complete what I wanted to do, so found myself at Doncaster station, with three hours to wait for my train.
Usually, I buy open returns, but LNER have stopped that because of the covids!
So rather than wait, I decided to buy another ticket.
A new Off Peak Single with my Railcard would have been £60, but I found the machine could sell me an Advance Single Ticket for £31.
So I got home in time for the cricket. My ticket also got me two seats, including a window.
LNER seem to be getting their act together.
A Hand Sanitiser In A Quiet Corner
This corner at Moorgate station never gets any passenger traffic, but thousands pass within three or four metres or so.
So what a good place to put a hand sanitiser.
I often use these sanitisers, when I pass and wonder if they should be a permanent feature, even after COVID-19 has passed.
Would they help in the control of winter influenza?
World’s First Hydrogen-Powered Passenger Train Hits The Rails In Austria
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on Silicon Republic.
This is the first paragraph.
This week in future tech, an Alstom hydrogen-powered train will start taking passengers in Austria for the first time.
But for the covids, I’d be on my way tomorrow to do a bit of advanced-level trainspotting.
The Anonymous Widower 