The Anonymous Widower

Have We Got Enough Trains?

In Who Will Be First To Order Vivarail D-Trains?, I came to the conclusion that as the various Pacers need to be replaced, that we’re going to have to work hard to fill the enormous gap.

If you summarise possible requirements for D-Trains to replace Pacers and perhaps sort out the Class 153 trains, you get the following.

East Anglia – 3 to replace inadequate Class 153s

London Midland – 4 to replace inadequate Class 153s, 2 for the Coventry Arena shuttle

East Midlands – 8 to replace inadequate Class 153s, 2 for Robin Hood

Great Western Railway – 8 to replace Class 143 Pacers

Wales – 30 to replace inadequate Class 142 and Class 143 Pacers, 2 for Heart of Wales Line

Northern Rail – 50 to replace inadequate Class 142 Pacers

That totals up to a hundred and three and it assumes that all of the Class 144 Pacers can be upgraded to Class 144e trains and that North Western electrification releases a few good diesel trains to replace Pacers.

There is only a maximum of seventy-five D-Trains. So without any other sources of new trains, we’re definitely in the doo-dah.

So what other sources of good quality diesel or other self-powered trains are there, that we could use to solve this crisis, that will happen, when the inadequate trains hit the brick wall of access and disability regulations in 2019/2020.

The Aventra IPEMU

The Aventra is Bombardier’s successor train to the ubiquitos Electrostar and it has already been ordered for Crossrail and the London Overground.

Bombardier have told me, that all Aventras can be delivered with provision for a battery to allow them to run for up to 60 miles independently of the power supply. This is all based on the technology demonstrated in a BEMU trial with a Class 379 train.

These trains are now called Independently Powered Electric Multiple Units  or IPEMUs

The Aventra IPEMU has lots of advantages.

• It is a modern four-coach electric train with everything passengers and train companies expect, that can bring the benefits of electrification to many places without putting up any wires or laying any third rails.
• It is normally an 100 mph train, but some Electrostar versions are faster than this. If it was a 110 mph train, it could mix it up something like the West Coast , East Coast  or Great Western Main Lines and then go to an important place just a few miles from the main route, like Chester, Middlesbrough or Oxford.
• The low-speed performance on batteries is the same as the standard train, but with a range of only sixty miles.
• The train has sufficient performance to handle cross-country lines like Newcastle to Carlisle with electrification at both ends, that might be difficult to electrify.
• In some places using an Aventra IPEMU might be more affordable and much quicker to implement than full electrification.
• The trains will probably be available from 2018 or so, when current orders are completed.
• If we end up with too many of the IPEMU variant, the batteries are just removed and probably with a change of software, we have the standard train.

We’ll be hearing a lot about IPEMUs in the future.

There are already rumours that Great Western Railway are going to order some IPEMU trains.

I suspect the biggest problem with these trains, other than demonstrating that trains powered by batteries are not some Mickey-Mouse idea, is that producing enough of them will be challenging for Bombardier.

As the Crossrail order can’t be delayed, I do wonder whether if the pace of delivery of the forty-five Aventras for London Overground will be slowed., after perhaps the eight for Gospel Oak to Barking are delivered, to allow other routes to have Aventra IPEMUs.

Vivarail D-Train, Class 144e Train Or Aventra IPEMU

There are three possible new or refurbished trains that can help to fill the gap of a lack of independently powered trains and help to replace all the trains that will have to be retired in 2020.

So how do they compare?

• The Vivarail D-train is a rebuilt London Underground D78 Stock train powered by a number of Ford Transit engines. It may turn out to be successful train, but the politicians are against it. I see it no more than providing some short term capacity or fulfilling unusual needs in particular places.
• The Class 144e Train is a Class 144 Train that has been rebuilt by Porterbrook. But it is obviously a Pacer! They may be produced as an affordable stop-gap.
• The Aventra IPEMU is a serious train built to the highest and most acceptable standards, whose one disadvantage is that it needs to have access to overhead electrification at times, to charge the batteries! Stop-gap they are not and if the batteries are removed, it becomes the standard Aventra.

My choice as a passenger would be the Aventra, although I would ride in the others out of curiosity.

Electrification

Electrification will be the major source of good quality diesel trains, as these are often no longer needed after a line is electrified.

As a simple example consider the Gospel Oak to Barking Line, which on electrification will release eight rather nice and fairly new Class 172 diesel trains.

North Western Electrification

The North Western Electrification between Manchester and Preston and Preston to Blackpool is in trouble, but if this can be brought on track, so that Manchester to Preston is completed in December 2016 and Preston to Blackpool is completed in 2017, these lines can be run by refurbished Class 319 trains and a number of Pacers will not be needed and some Class 150 and Class 156 trains will be released for service elsewhere.

Everybody blames Network Rail, but it seems the problem is the same one faced by George Stephenson and his fellow engineers in Victorian times – the nature of the land. This is a recent report from the Manchester Evening News about more problems in the Farnworth Tunnel, which is being enlarged. This extract sums up the problems.

Engineers have been hindered by ‘large swathes of sand’, which are proving difficult to bore through.

The sand means it is no longer possible to safely excavate at the same time as grouting sections of the tunnel, as the sand pours down.

The problem first reared its head on August 14, when running sand created a hole which required 35 tonnes of grout to fill it.

Then on August 27, a collapse meant engineers had to remove 100 tonnes of sand by hand.

Let’s hope that the engineers are getting the overhead line equipment up on time.

But I do think some very experienced engineers are wondering, why they didn’t order trains, that could run on the existing infrastructure. On the other hand the Farnworth Tunnel was probably a problem, that could have bit the railway in half at any time.

I think it is essential that other lines in the North West are electrified as soon as possible, so that more Class 319s can replace Pacers and release Class 15X trains (A mixture of 150 and 156 trains!).

This is a map of the proposed electrification in the North.

Northern Electrification Map

There are various connecting lines around Liverpool, Manchester and Preston, on which electrification works have not yet started, but have certainly been talked about.

• Salford Crescent to Southport via Wigan Wallgate
• Liverpool to Manchester via Warrington Central
• Preston to Ormskirk

Electrifying these lines would certainly get rid of a few Pacers and release some Class 15X trains for refurshment and use elsewhere.

However, as there is established electrification at Liverpool, Manchester and Preston, it might be more affordable and quicker to use a few Aventra IPEMUs on these lines until the electrification is completed.

Manchester To Leeds Electrification

The Manchester to Leeds electrification has now been paused and it is likely that it will not be completed in the next ten years.

The line has its problems as the three-car Class 185 trains, that work the line, are totally inadequate for the route.

The distance by rail between Manchester and Leeds is 43 miles. When I saw this, I didn’t believe it, but it’s all in this article in the Guardian.

So this means that if you want to run an electric train between Liverpool and Manchester to Leeds, York and Newcastle, the Aventra IPEMU would bridge the gap with ease. The test version of the Aventra IPEMU was a modified Class 379 Train. Similar versions of these like the Class 387 Train are 110 mph trains, so could we see an Aventra IPEMU with such a top speed?

In other words the North Transpennine route could be electrified using four-car 110 mph Aventra IPEMUs. They would certainly be able to serve Newcastle and Middlesbrough, but Scarborough and Hull might still need to be operated by diesel trains.

It would also appear that Aventra IPEMUs could also bridge the gap between Leeds and Manchester Victoria on the Caldervale Line.

This would mean that all stations between Leeds and Manchester on both routes could be served by electric Aventra IPEMUs, if the line was not electrified.

Great Western Electrification

The electrification of the Great Western Main Line is important in solving the train crisis for several reasons.

• If the electrification of the Great Western can be completed as far as Swindon and Newbury, this might release some of the 36, two- and three-car Class 165 trains or the 21, three-car Class 166 trains. These are in good condition and every train company will want a few to provide modern services.
• Once electrification is completed to Bristol and Cardiff and Class 800 and Class 801 trains are running on the route, will release a number of InterCity 125s. Some are ear-marked for Scotland to provide flagship services and I’m sure that train companies will find uses for the rest.
• Electrification to Cardiff will enable electrification of the Cardiff Valleys Lines. But the Valleys electrification needs the new trains to be delivered for Crossrail and/or the London Overground, so that the Class 315 trains can be refurbished and cascaded.

This report in Construction News entitled Crossrail, Thameslink, Great Western and North-west identified as priorities in Network Rail report says this.

The report into the planning of Network Rail’s £38.5bn improvement plan is expected to be released next month.

Sir Peter has identified Crossrail, Thameslink, Great Western and the North-west electrification as the four key “priority projects” for Network Rail, according to sources close to the report.

So it looks like the Great Western and North Western projects might get the resources to finish in time to allow cascades to release trains to help solve the shortage of train problems everywhere.

Scottish Electrification

Although the train shortage is more pronounced in England and Wales, Scottish electrification could give the rest of the UK a helping hand.

In the Wikipedia entry for Abellio ScotRail there is a section entitled Future. This is said.

Abellio ScotRail will introduce a fleet of 46 three car and 24 four car Hitachi AT200 electric trains from December 2017, to operate services on the lines being electrified as part of the Edinburgh to Glasgow Improvement Programme, if it granted a three-year optional franchise extension, it will order a further 10 three car units.

Abellio ScotRail will also introduce 14 four-carriage and 13 five-carriage refurbished High Speed Trains by December 2018 on longer-distance services between Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen and Inverness. This is contingent on the rolling stock being released by First Great Western, with suggestions in July 2015 that the electrification of the Great Western Main Line was running 12 months late.

This new rolling stock will result in 10 Class 156, eight Class 158 and 34 Class 170s returning to their leasing companies.

So when the new Hitachi trains are delivered by the end of 2018, there could be around fifty diesel trains available to help out in England and Wales.

It is also another reason why electrification of the Great Western must be completed, as without it, Scotland won’t get the High Speed Trains.

Gospel Oak To Barking Electrification

The eight Class 172 trains on the Gospel Oak to Barking Line will be released when that line is electrified.

But who knows when, that will happen?

As the services on the line could be provided by Aventra IPEMUs charging from the electrification at Barking, I do wonder if this should be done to release the Class 172 trains as early as possible. The electrification of the line would then be done at a more relaxed pace, whilst a full service was provided by the Aventras.

Pushing The Train Operating Companies To Help Themselves

In the last few months, some of the franchises have been extended or advertised for new franchisees.  And I think it is true to say, that the Department for Transport, is expecting that the train companies do something about improving the service.

• Great Western Railway have taken a pragmatic view on obtaining new trains.
• Chiltern Railways and c2c, the two franchisees with most control over their tracks, are pushing forward with developments.
• East Midlands Trains have got an extension to 2018 with strings. Will we see a rolling stock announcement?
• The just advertised East Anglian franchise, seems to put a lot of pressure on the operator, to sort out the trains and improve customer service.

Perhaps this paragraph from Transforming The North’s Railways is the most significant.

We are looking for a complete modernisation of the Northern rolling stock fleet, which will involve replacing Pacer trains completely by 2020 and delivering high quality modern trains for passengers. Bidders’ rolling stock plans must include at least 120 new-build carriages for use on non-electrified routes. The new carriages that will be introduced on the Northern network, along with the release of diesel units following the introduction of electric trains on newly-electrified routes, will enable the replacement of the Pacer units. Existing electric and diesel trains on Northern will receive a complete modernisation to make them ‘as new’ as soon as practicable after franchise start, with the emphasis that the design of new and existing interiors should feel thoroughly modern and focus on passenger comfort.

One hundred and twenty new build carriages for non-electrified routes either means something like sixty two-car diesel multiple units, thirty four-car Aventra IPEMUs or perhaps a mixture of the two. I don’t thin it means D-Trains or Class 144e Trains.

With Jeremy Corbyn threatening to nationalise the railways, it does seem the train companies are being told to sharpen up their acts significantly.

I think we’ll see more innovation and better services offered in the next few years.

Class Is Permanent

When Chiltern Railways wanted trains to run a high standard of service between London and Birmingham, they turned to locomotive-hauled Mark 3 coaches.

The coaches were refurbished to a very high standard, where every passenger can look out of the window, as shown in Hauled By A Diesel Locomotive To Birmingham. They even have sliding doors and modern toilets that meet all current and known future regulations.

And of course, they still have one of the finest ride qualities of any train in the world.

This is said on the Wikipedia entry for Abellio ScotRail.

Abellio ScotRail will also introduce 14 four-carriage and 13 five-carriage refurbished High Speed Trains by December 2018 on longer-distance services between Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen and Inverness. This is contingent on the rolling stock being released by First Great Western, with suggestions in July 2015 that the electrification of the Great Western Main Line was running 12 months late.

High Speed Trains are formed of two Class 43 locomotives and an appropriate number of Mark 3 coaches.

I would assume the coaches will be refurbished very much like the Chiltern examples with a high class interior, sliding doors and modern toilets, so they meet all current and known future access, disability and environmental regulations.

Terry Miller’s magnificent design, that was built between 1975 and 1988, just seems to keep putting off the inevitable. I wouldn’t bet against some Mark 3 coaches still being in regular service for a hundred years.

Despite their age, there are still a lot of Mark 3 coaches in regular service. I’m not sure how many, but there are over 800 in InterCity 125 sets.

In addition to the superb Chiltern Class 68 locomotive-hauled sets, there are also several sets used by Abellio Greater Anglia on Liverpool Street to Ipswich and Norwich services, where they are hauled by Class 90 locomotives.

These Greater Anglia sets need upgrading with sliding doors and modern toilets, if they are to stay in service past 2020.

The next operator for this franchise is being given tough conditions, which include putting modern trains on the flagship route and running some services in ninety minutes from Norwich to London and sixty from Ipswich. The question has to be asked if this would be possible with a modern locomotive and refurbished Mark 3 coaches!

I think there is a high chance that the winning bidder for the next Greater Anglia franchise will still be using refurbished Mark 3 coaches between Liverpool Street, Ipswich and Norwich.

The new franchisee will have to offer lots of new services and three possibilities have been run in my lifetime.

• Liverpool Street and Great Yarmouth, via Cambridge, the new Cambridge Science Park station and Norwich.
• Liverpool Street and Peterborough via Colchester, Ipswich, Bury St. Edmunds and Ely.
• Liverpool Street to Lowestoft via Colchester and Ipswich.

They have a problem, in that sections of these routes are not electrified. There are four possible solutions.

• Run the routes in such a way that an Aventra IPEMU can service it. A possibility!
• Buy a few Class 800 electro-diesel trains, which would probably be made in Japan by Hitachi. Expensive but possible!
• Get a few more sets of refurbished Mark 3 coaches and haul them with a Class 88 electro-diesel locomotive. No problem and in style!
• Use InterCity 125s. Possibly, but 100% diesel!

The only options that could be done quickly would be to use the Class 88 or InterCity 125s.

The latter would work, but surely a mainly electric modern solution is probably better and more acceptable to politicians.

I would also never rule out more sets of Mark 3 coaches being used around the country after refurbishment. The only problem is something environmentally-friendly to haul them!

The Scottish solution of shortened High Speed Trains could also be used.

Aventra IPEMUs Running From Or Between Electrified Hubs Or Lines

Many branch lines or secondary routes meet the following conditions.

• They are electrified at one or both ends.
• The electrification is sufficient to charge an Aventra IPEMU’s battery, as it waits to return or passes along the line.
• The non-electrified sections of the line are short enough to be handled by an Aventra IPEMU.

Examples of lines suitable for an IPEMU include.

• Newcastle to Carlisle
• Manchester to Leeds
• Cambridge to Ipswich
• Coventry to Nuneaton
• Carnforth to Barrow-in-Furness
• Norwich to Yarmouth

I think that once the Aventra IPEMU concept is proven, then we’ll see them increasingly used around electrified lines.

There is a long list of places, where branch and secondary routes meet main electrified lines.

• Birmingham
• Carlisle
• Coventry
• Crewe
• Darlington
• Doncaster
• Ely
• Ipswich
• Leeds
• Liverpool
• Manchester Piccadilly
• Manchester Victoria
• Newcastle
• Norwich
• Peterborough
• Preston
• Wolverhampton
• York

This list will hopefully be increased, when the Great Western Main Line is electrified.

• Bristol
• Cardiff
• Reading
• Swansea

I have written An Alternative Approach To Provide A Local Metro Network, which investigates how  Aventra IPEMUs can be used to provide electric trains on lines without full electrification.

The only area of the country that will lack electrified hubs in a few years will be the East Midlands Main Line and the far South West and the Northern parts of Scotland and Wales.

So surely, it is important that we electrify the Midland Main Line to bring electrification to the important hubs of Derby, Nottingham and Sheffield, so we can use Aventra IPEMUs to provide electric trains on their local lines.

Conclusions

It’s tight, but I think it’ll be alright in 2020, but there are certain things we must do.

1. Use no more than a handful of Vivarail D-Trains to provide services on some far-flung lines.
2. The Great Western, North Western and Scottish electrifications must be completed on time.
3. Use the Mark 3 coaches intelligently
4. Use new Aventra IPEMUs to side-step electrification in places like, the electrification gap between Manchester and Leeds and the Cardiff Valleys Lines.
5. Use new Aventra IPEMUs to provide services around electrified hubs.
6. Scrap all the Pacers except possibly upgraded Class 144e trains.
7. Upgrade the Class 150, Class 153 and Class 156 trains.

I think it’ll be interesting to see how the companies jump.

September 21, 2015 Posted by AnonW | Transport/Travel | D-Train, Electrification, Innovation, IPEMU, Trains | 4 Comments