Ministers Sack Top Rail Adviser Who Spoke Out Over HS2 Train Debacle
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on The Times.
This is the sub-heading.
Chris Gibb, an industry veteran, said plans to shorten HS2 trains would likely inflate costs, slow services beyond Birmingham and result in fewer seats
These three paragraphs add more details.
A leading government adviser has been fired for criticising Whitehall plans to reduce the length of HS2 trains, it can be revealed.
Chris Gibb, a non-executive director of the nationalised train operator, is understood to have had his contract terminated by ministers this weekend after allegedly breaching media engagement rules.
Gibb was appointed to the board of the Department for Transport Operator Limited (DFTO) in 2020, having worked in the rail industry for more than 40 years. DFTO is the state-owned company that oversees train companies as they are brought into full public ownership.
This paragraph appears to detail what Gibb has said that caused offence.
Gibb said there was “no doubt that if HS2 opened by replacing 11-coach Pendolinos with eight-coach trains, these would be full and leave people behind on day one”.
So I will audit, what he said.
Now that Leeds is not going to be served by HS2, Manchester Piccadilly, is the only station other than Birmingham Curzon Street, that will terminate 400 m. trains, and the Birmingham station will be brand-new, so hopefully, that will be designed for the right capacity.
Manchester Piccadilly currently handles three trains per hour from London.
- Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and Stockport
- Nuneaton, Stoke-on-Trent and Stockport
- Stafford, Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport
Trains are usually Class 390 11-car Pendolino with 607 seats
These will be replaced by.
- 200m. train – Euston and Macclesfield via Old Oak Common, Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.
- 400m. train – Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Old Oak Common, Birmingham International and Manchester Airport.
- 400m. train – Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Old Oak Common and Manchester Airport.
- 400m. train – Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Old Oak Common and Manchester Airport.
Trains will be 200m 8-car HS2 train which will have 504 seats. 400m trains will be two trains running as a pair.
I can add up the hourly seats.
Currently, if the three trains per hour are 11-car Pendolinos, then the hourly London-Manchester capacity is 1821 seats.
On HS2, if the four and a half trains per hour are 8-car HS2 trains, then the hourly London-Manchester capacity is 9 x 504 or 4536 seats, or a 149% increase in capacity.
- And HS2 doesn’t serve Macclesfield, Stockport or Wilmslow!
- Four 200m. HS2 trains would give a 121 % increase in capacity.
- Perhaps, as there is spare capacity on HS2 between Crewe and London, another service could be fitted into the hourly scheme of things.
How about Blackpool?
How Many 8-car HS2 Trains Would Be Needed To Replace The Capacity Of The Current Service?
To provide an hourly London-Manchester capacity of 1821 seats with 8-car HS2 trains would need around 3.6 trains.
Even in the unreal world that in which politicians exist, I doubt fractions of a train exist.
So I suspect, a practical timetable could be.
- 200m. train – Euston and Macclesfield via Old Oak Common, Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.
- 200m. train – Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Old Oak Common, Birmingham International and Manchester Airport.
- 200m. train – Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Old Oak Common and Manchester Airport.
- 200m. train – Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Old Oak Common and Manchester Airport.
This would be 2016 hourly seats, which is an increase of about 10 %
Please check my figures, as they could explain a lot.
Farage Wants HS2 Scrapped
The title of this post, is the same as a sub-title in this article on The Times. which is entitled HS2: Labour confirms delay until 2033.
This is the sub-heading.
Nigel Farage has called for the whole HS2 project to be scrapped.
These two paragraphs give NF’s view.
The Reform UK leader told the Commons: “Has the moment not come, rather than having another reset, to recognise this is a failure?
“Let’s scrap HS2, let’s use the tens of billions of pounds we can save in the next decade to upgrade railway lines across the entirety of the United Kingdom to the benefit of many millions and spend the rest on other national priorities in these financially straitened times.”
Farage’s simplistic plan will appeal to his disciples, but the major thing that is needed, is more capacity between South and North. Or North and South depending on where you live!
HS2 will provide an extra seventeen paths between London and a large triangular junction in the West Midlands.
If HS2 Is Not Built There Will Be More Cars And Trucks On The Roads
In Footage Released Of East West Rail’s First Commercial Freight Train, I wrote about the SEGRO Logistics Park Northampton (SLPN), which would generate lots of road and rail traffic. Without developments like HS2, the roads will just get clogged up.
High Speed Two’s Originally Proposed Service Pattern
This graphic shows the original service pattern for High Speed Two.
Note.
- There are seventeen paths terminating in the South at Euston station.
- Six of these paths go to Leeds, Newcastle or York.
- As the Eastern leg has been abandoned, that means six extra trains can run between London and the large triangular junction in the West Midlands.
Six extra trains running to the West side of England and Scotland could give a substantial improvement of services.
High Speed Yorkshire
HS2 needs to be paired with High Speed Yorkshire, which would mainly be an upgrading of the East Coast Main Line running at up to 160 mph to serve Lincolnshire, Yorkshire, the North-East and East Scotland.
Note.
- British Rail built the Selby Diversion in the 1980s to run at 160 mph.
- Digital signalling is currently being installed on this route and this will allow trains to speed through the two bottlenecks of the Digswell Viaduct and the Newark Crossing.
- Times of three-and-a-half hours between King’s Cross and Edinburgh, should be possible.
These times should give the airlines a good kicking on London-Newcastle and London-Scotland routes.
Fast services would run on High Speed Yorkshire to Alnwick, Barnetby, Barnsley, Beverley, Berwick, Bradford, Brough, Cleethorpes, Darlington, Doncaster, Durham, Edinburgh, Goole, Grantham, Grimsby, Harrogate, Huddersfield, Hull, Leeds, Lincoln, Middlesbrough, Newcastle, Peterborough, Pontefract, Retford, Rotherham, Scarborough, Scunthorpe, Sheffield, Skipton, Stevenage, Sunderland, Wakefield, Worksop and York.
Most of these towns and cities are already served by Hitachi or other high speed trains from King’s Cross.
A high proportion of the services to Yorkshire destinations will be under two hours from London.
When the current trains need replacing, they could be replaced by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
Onward From Handsacre Junction
Services to the North-West and Scotland will join the Trent Valley Line at Handsacre junction.
This OpenRailwayMap shows the Trent Valley Line between Crewe station and Handacre junction.
Note.
- The proposed route of High Speed Two is shown as a dotted line, running diagonally across the map.
- The red track to its West is the Trent Valley Line, which is a section of the West Coast Main Line.
- Handsacre junction is in the South-East corner of the map.
- The blue arrow indicates Stafford station on the West Coast Main Line.
- The main High Speed Two tracks will not connect to Stafford or Stoke-on-Trent stations.
- Crewe station is in the North-West corner of the map.
- Crewe station and Handsacre junction are 37.6 miles apart.
With the exception of the 6 mile twin-track section between Stafford Trent Valley and Colwich junctions, it appears that Crewe station and Handsacre junction is all quadruple track.
This OpenRailwayMap shows the Trent Valley Line between Stafford stationand Colwich junction.
Note.
- The Trent Valley Line, which is a section of the West Coast Main Line, runs across the map.
- The arrow in the North-West corner of the map indicates Stafford station.
- Colwich junction is in the South-East corner of the map.
- About three-quarters of the way across, the track is shown in cream. This is the twin-track Shugborough Tunnel, which is around a half-mile long.
- The Shugborough Tunnel has a 100 mph maximum speed.
- The portals of Shugborough Tunnel are Grade II Listed and the Wikipedia entry for the tunnel is certainly worth a read.
How Many High Speed Two trains per hour (tph) will use the Trent Valley Line route?
The original proposal in the graphic earlier shows these trains.
- 4 – London to Lancaster/Liverpool Lime Street – Splits at Crewe
- 5 – London to Liverpool Lime Street
- 6 – London to Stafford, Stoke -on-Trent and Macclesfield
- 7 – London and Birmingham Interchange to Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly
- 8 – London to Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly
- 9 – London to Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly
- 10 – London and Birmingham Interchange to Preston, Carlisle, Edinburgh Haymarket and Edinburgh Waverley/Glasgow Central – Splits at Carlisle
- 11 – London Euston to Preston, Carlisle, Edinburgh Haymarket and Edinburgh Waverley/Glasgow Central – Splits at Carlisle
- 12 – Birmingham Curzon Street to Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Edinburgh Haymarket and Edinburgh Waverley Or Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell and Glasgow Central- Services alternate.
- 13 – Birmingham Curzon Street to East Midlands Hub, Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly
- 14 – Birmingham Curzon Street to East Midlands Hub, Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly
Note.
- It looks like there will be eleven High Speed Two tph on the Trent Valley Line.
- As East Midlands Hub will not be built, I will assume trains 13 and 14 will be Birmingham Curzon Street to Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly.
- Other trains will need to use the route.
- I suspect that freight trains, that couldn’t maintain 100 mph would not be allowed.
I believe that digital signalling can handle all the trains between Handsacre Junction and Crewe.
- Trains 10 and 11 would run every thirty minutes to give two tph between London and Glasgow Central and two tph between London and the two Edinburgh stations.
- Each of these trains would lead a flight of trains behind them through the Trent Valley Line.
- The last trains going North in the flights, would be trains 4 and 6, as they stop on the Trent Valley Line section.
I have written a lot of scheduling algorithms in the last fifty years and I wouldn’t be surprised if flights could be up to 7 or 8 trains, running 3 or 4 minutes apart.
It would be an impressive sight.
What Timings Would Be Possible On High Speed Two Using Handsacre Junction And The Trent Valley Line?
In Where Is Handsacre Junction? I calculated some times on High Speed Two to various destinations, using Handsacre junction and the Trent Valley Line. This is a more comprehensive table.
- London and Blackpool North – 205 mph – 1:55
- London and Blackpool North – 140 mph – 2:12
- London and Carlisle – 205 mph – 2:45
- London and Carlisle – 140 mph – 3:01
- London and Crewe – 205 mph – 1:03
- London and Crewe – 140 mph – 1:19
- London and Edinburgh Waverley – 205 mph – 4:14
- London and Edinburgh Waverley – 140 mph – 4:30
- London and Glasgow Central – 205 mph – 4:22
- London and Glasgow Central – 140 mph – 4:38
- London and Handsacre junction – 205 mph – 0:35
- London and Handsacre junction – 140 mph – 0:51
- London and Lancaster – 205 mph – 1:50
- London and Lancaster – 140 mph – 2:06
- London and Liverpool Lime Street – 205 mph – 1:46
- London and Liverpool Lime Street – 140 mph – 2:02
- London and Manchester Piccadilly – 205 mph – 1:41
- London and Manchester Piccadilly – 140 mph – 1:57
- London and Preston – 205 mph – 1:31
- London and Preston – 140 mph – 1:47
- London and Stafford – 205 mph – 0:45
- London and Stafford – 140 mph – 1:01
- London and Stoke-on-Trent – 205 mph – 0:55
- London and Stoke-on-Trent – 140 mph – 1:11
- London and Wigan North Western – 205 mph – 1:17
- London and Wigan North Western – 140 mph – 1:33
Note.
- 205 mph could be the average speed between London Euston and Handsacre junction for High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
- 140 mph could be the average speed between London Euston and Handsacre junction for Class 390 trains.
- Times are in hh:nn.
- For times North of Handsacre junction are typical Class 390 times.
A typical timing between London Euston and Handsacre junction for Class 390 trains is 71 minutes, so if High Speed Two services were run using Class 390 trains, twenty minutes would be saved on all services via Handsacre junction compared to current Avanti West Coast services.
I have some other thoughts.
Using Class 390 Trains Is Not My Idea
This article on Rail nBusiness UK is entitled Viewpoint: Buy tilting trains and finish Delta Junction to salvage HS2, says Gibb.
This is the sub-heading.
UK: Procurement of a fleet of tilting trains and a focus on Birmingham – Manchester services are key to making the most the descoped High Speed 2 scheme, former Virgin Trains executive Chris Gibb tells Rail Business UK.
Chris Gibb has the right experience. and has been used as a go-to man, when projects are in trouble.
The major points of his plan are as follows.
- Connect High Speed Two to the Trent Valley Line to go North from the Midlands.
- Initially, use Class 390 trains or Pendelinos on Liverpool, Manchester and Scottish services.
- Run Class 390 trains at 140 mph between Euston and Handsacre junction.
- When the Pendelinos need to be retired, buy a new set of tilting trains.
- Complete the North-to-West leg of High Speed Two’s triangular junction, so that trains can run between Birmingham Curzon Street and Manchester.
- Gibb proposes a Blackpool service, that splits and joins with a Liverpool service. I assume he means train 5.
Gibb feels a fundamental review of the operating principles and fleet requirements is now needed.
It is a well-thought out viewpoint and very much a must-read.


