Trent Valley Line « The Anonymous Widower

Thoughts On High Speed Two

These are a few thoughts about High Speed Two, after the reports of major changes today.

This article on the BBC is entitled HS2 Line Between Birmingham And Crewe Delayed By Two Years.

This is the sub-heading.

The Birmingham to Crewe leg of high speed railway HS2 will be delayed by two years to cut costs.

These are the three opening paragraphs.

Some of the design teams working on the Euston end of the line are also understood to be affected.

Transport secretary Mark Harper blamed soaring prices and said it was “committed” to the line linking London, the Midlands and North of England.

HS2 has been beset by delays and cost rises. In 2010, it was expected to cost £33bn but is now expected to be £71bn.

Delivering The Benefits Of High Speed Two Early

It is my belief that with a large project taking a decade or more , it is not a bad idea to deliver some worthwhile benefits early on.

The Elizabeth Line opened in stages.

The new Class 345 trains started replacing scrapyard specials in 2017.
The rebuilt Abbey Wood station opened in 2017.
Paddington local services were transferred to the Elizabeth Line in 2019.
Outer stations reopened regularly after refurbishment from 2018.
The through line opened in May 2022.

There’s still more to come.

Some projects wait until everything is ready and everybody gets fed up and annoyed.

Are there any parts of High Speed Two, that could be completed early, so that existing services will benefit?

In 2020, the refurbishment of Liverpool Lime Street station and the tracks leading to the station was completed and I wrote about the station in It’s A Privilege To Work Here!, where this was my conclusion.

Wikipedia says this about Liverpool Lime Street station.

Opened in August 1836, it is the oldest still-operating grand terminus mainline station in the world.

I’ve used Lime Street station for fifty-five years and finally, it is the station, the city needs and deserves.

I’ve been to grand termini all over the world and Lime Street may be the oldest, but now it is one of the best.

Are there any stations, that will be served by High Speed Two, that should be upgraded as soon as possible to give early benefits to passengers, staff and operators?

Avanti West Cost have solved the problem of the short platforms at Liverpool South Parkway station, by ordering shorter Class 807 trains. Will High Speed Two lengthen the platforms at this station?

A good project manager will need to get all the smaller sub-projects in a row and work out what is the best time to do each.

Digital Signalling

I would assume, as this will be needed for High Speed Two services in the West Coast Main Line to the North of Crewe, this is surely a must for installing as early as possible.

If the existing trains could run for a hundred miles at 140 mph, rather than the current 125 mph, that would save five worthwhile minutes.

Trains could run closer together and there is the possibility of organising services in flights, where a number of trains run together a safe number of minutes apart.

Remove Bottlenecks On Classic Lines, That Could Be Used By High Speed Two

I don’t know the bottlenecks on the West Coast Main Line, but there are two on the East Coast Main Line, that I have talked about in the past.

Could ERTMS And ETCS Solve The Newark Crossing Problem?

Improving The North Throat Of York Station Including Skelton Bridge Junction

Hopefully, the digital signalling will solve them.

Any bottlenecks on lines that will be part of High Speed Two, should be upgraded as soon as possible.

Birmingham And Crewe

I will start by looking at the leg between Birmingham and Crewe.

This section of the HS2 map shows High Speed Two between Birmingham and Lichfield.

Note.

The blue circle on the left at the bottom of the map is Birmingham Curzon Street station.
The blue circle on the right at the bottom of the map is Birmingham Interchange station.
The High Speed Two to and from London passes through Birmingham Interchange station.
The branch to Birmingham Curzon Street station connects to the main High Speed Two at a triangular junction.
North of the triangular junction, High Speed Two splits.
The Eastern branch goes to East Midlands Parkway station.
The Northern branch goes to Crewe, Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Piccadilly, Preston and Scotland.

At the top of the map, the Northern branch splits and lines are shown on this map.

Note.

The junction where the Northern and Eastern branches divide is in the South-East corner of the map.
To the North of Lichfield, the route divides again.
The Northern purple line is the direct line to Crewe.
The shorter Southern branch is a spur that connects High Speed Two to the Trent Valley Line, which is the current route taken by trains between London Euston and Crewe, Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Piccadilly, Preston and Scotland.
Crewe station is in the North-West corner of the map.

The route between the junction to the North of Lichfield and Crewe is essentially two double-track railways.

High Speed Two with a routine operating speed of 205 mph.
The Trent Valley Line with a routine operating speed of 140 mph.
High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains can run on all tracks.
High Speed Two Full-Size trains may be able to run on the Trent Valley Line at reduced speed.
Eighteen trains per hour (tph) is the maximum frequency of High Speed Two.

I feel in an emergency, trains will be able to use the other route.

Will This Track Layout Allow An Innovative Build?

Suppose the link to the Trent Valley Line was built first, so that High Speed Two trains from London for Crewe, Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Piccadilly, Preston and Scotland, could transfer to the Trent Valley Line as they do now.

All lines used by High Speed Two services North of the junction, where High Speed Two joins the Trent Valley Line would be updated with digital signalling and 140 mph running. This will benefit current services on the line. For instance Euston and Liverpool/Manchester services could be under two hours.
The current services would be replaced by High Speed Two services run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
The direct High Speed Two route between Lichfield and Crewe would now be built.
When this section of High Speed Two is complete, High Speed Two services would use it between Lichfield and Crewe.
As the direct route would be built later, this would delay the building of the Birmingham and Crewe high-speed route.

Currently, trains run the 41.8 miles between Lichfield and Crewe in 28 minutes, which is an average speed of 89.6 mph.

I can build a table of average speeds and times for Lichfield and Crewe.

100 mph – 25.1 minutes – 2.9 minutes saving
110 mph – 22.8 minutes – 5.2 minutes saving
120 mph – 20.9 minutes – 7.1 minutes saving
125 mph – 20.1 minutes – 7.9 minutes saving
130 mph – 19.3 minutes – 8.7 minutes saving
140 mph – 17.9 minutes – 10.1 minutes saving
160 mph – 15.7 minutes – 12.3 minutes saving
180 mph – 13.9 minutes – 14.1 minutes saving
200 mph – 12.5 minutes – 15.5 minutes saving

Note.

Even a slight increase in average speed creates several minutes saving.
Times apply for both routes.

I believe that a 125 mph average should be possible on the Trent Valley route, which may be enough for Euston and Liverpool/Manchester services to be under two hours.

Improving Classic Lines Used By High Speed Two North Of Lichfield

Real Time Trains shows these figures for a Glasgow Central to Euston service.

Glasgow and Lichfield Trent Valley is 298.2 miles.
Glasgow and Lichfield Trent Valley takes five hours.

This is an average speed of 59.6 mph.

Note.

The average speed is low considering the trains are capable of cruising at 125 mph and 140 mph with digital signalling.
High Speed Two services between Euston and Glasgow will use the classic network, to the North of Lichfield.

I can build a table of average speeds and times for Glasgow and Lichfield.

100 mph – 179 minutes – 121 minutes saving
110 mph – 163 minutes – 157 minutes saving
120 mph – 149 minutes – 151 minutes saving
125 mph – 143 minutes – 157 minutes saving
130 mph – 138 minutes – 162 minutes saving
140 mph – 128 minutes – 172 minutes saving

This table illustrates why it is important to improve all or as many as possible of classic lines used by High Speed Two to enable 140 mph running, with full digital signalling. Obviously, if 140 mph is not feasible, the speed should be increased to the highest possible.

Routes that could be updated include.

London Euston and Glasgow Central
London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street
London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly (all routes)
London Euston and Blackpool
London Euston and Holyhead
London Euston and Shrewsbury

Not all these routes will be served by High Speed Two, but they could be served by 140 mph trains.

What Times Would Be Possible?

The InterCity 225 was British Rail’s ultimate electric train and these two paragraphs from its Wikipedia entry, describe its performance.

The InterCity 225 was designed to achieve a peak service speed of 140 mph (225 km/h); during a test run in 1989 on Stoke Bank between Peterborough and Grantham, an InterCity 225 was recorded at a speed of 162 mph (260.7 km/h). Its high speed capabilities were again demonstrated via a 3hr 29mins non-stop run between London and Edinburgh on 26 September 1991. British regulations have since required in-cab signalling on any train running at speeds above 125 mph (201 km/h) preventing such speeds from being legally attained in regular service. Thus, except on High Speed 1, which is equipped with cab signalling, British signalling does not allow any train, including the InterCity 225, to exceed 125 mph (201 km/h) in regular service, due to the impracticality of correctly observing lineside signals at high speed.

The InterCity 225 has also operated on the West Coast Main Line (WCML). In April 1992, one trainset achieved a new speed record of two hours, eight minutes between Manchester and London Euston, shaving 11 minutes off the 1966 record. During 1993, trials were operated to Liverpool and Manchester in connection with the InterCity 250 project.

The fastest London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly services appear to be two hours and six minutes tomorrow, with stops at Nuneaton and Stoke-on-Trent.
The fastest London King’s Cross and Edinburgh service is four hours seventeen minutes tomorrow.

It does appear that British Rail’s 1980s-vintage InterCity 225 train did very well.

Trains that would be able to run at 140 mph with updated signalling include.

Alstom Class 390
Hitachi Class 800, 801, 802, 803, 805, 807 and 810
British Rail InterCity 225
High Speed Two Classic-Compatible.

All are electric trains.

Could High Speed Two, West Coast Main Line and East Coast Main Line Services Be Run By High Speed Two Classic-Compatible Trains?

I don’t see why not!

They would be able to use short stretches of High Speed Line like Lichfield and Crewe.
LNER and CrossCountry could also use the trains.
High Speed Two is providing the framework and it’s there to be used, provided the paths are available.

This graphic shows the preliminary schedule.

It only shows ten trains going through Crewe, so there could be up to eight spare high speed paths between Birmingham and Crewe.

Could High Speed Two Classic-Compatible Trains Be Used To Advantage On The East Coast Main Line?

I published this extract from the Wikipedia entry for the InterCity 225 earlier.

The InterCity 225 was designed to achieve a peak service speed of 140 mph (225 km/h); during a test run in 1989 on Stoke Bank between Peterborough and Grantham, an InterCity 225 was recorded at a speed of 162 mph (260.7 km/h). Its high speed capabilities were again demonstrated via a 3hr 29mins non-stop run between London and Edinburgh on 26 September 1991.

The London and Edinburgh run was at an average speed of around 112 mph.

I wonder what time, one of LNER’s Class 801 trains, that are all-electric could do, once the new digital signalling has been fully installed on the route? I suspect it would be close to three hours, but it would depend on how long the trains could run at 140 mph.

It should be noted that the Selby Diversion was designed for 160 mph, when it was built by British Rail in the 1980s.

In Are Short Lengths Of High Speed Line A Good Idea?, I look at the mathematics of putting in short lengths of new railway, which have higher speeds, where this was part of my conclusion.

I very much feel there is scope to create some new high speed sections on the current UK network, with only building very little outside of the current land used by the network.

I would love to know what some of Network Rail’s track experts feel is the fastest time possible between London and Edinburgh that can be achieved, by selective upgrading of the route.

If some of the trains were High Speed Two Classic-Compatible Trains, with a top speed of 205 mph, provided the track allowed it, there could be some interesting mathematics balancing the costs of track upgrades, new trains with what passengers and operators need in terms of journey times.

Could High Speed Two Classic-Compatible Trains Be Used To Advantage On The West Coast Main Line?

Much of what I said about the East Coast Main Line would apply to the West Coast Main Line.

But in addition, the West Coast Main Line will be a superb place to test the new High Speed Two Classic-Compatible Trains.

I believe, that before High Speed Two opens, we’ll see High Speed Two Classic-Compatible Trains, carrying passengers between Euston and Avanti West Coast’s destinations.

Could High Speed Two Be Split Into Two?

Consider.

Under earlier plans, the East Coast Main Line to the North of York, will be used by High Speed Two.
With digital signalling the East Coast Main Line will support continuous running at 140 mph for long sections of the route.
The East Coast Main Line has a recently-rebuilt large Southern terminal at King’s Cross with eleven platforms and good suburban services and excellent connections to the London Underground.
The East Coast Main Line has a very large Northern terminal at Edinburgh Waverley with twenty platforms and good local train connections.
There are large intermediate stations on the East Coast Main Line at Doncaster, Leeds, Newcastle, Peterborough and York. All these stations have good local train connections.
The East Coast Main Line has important branches to Cambridge, Harrogate, Huddersfield, Hull King’s Lynn, Lincoln, Middlesbrough, Nottingham, Scarborough, Sheffield, Skegness and Sunderland.

We are talking about an asset, that needs improving rather than sidelining.

Could High Speed Two Be A One-Nation Project?

Over three years ago, I wrote Could High Speed Two Be A One-Nation Project? and tried to answer the question in the title.

But now the core network is better defined, perhaps it is time to look at extending the High Speed network again.

The next few sections look at possible extensions.

Serving Chester And North Wales

I looked at this in Could High Speed Two Trains Serve Chester And North Wales?, which I have updated recently.

This was my conclusion.

It looks to me, that when High Speed Two, think about adding extra destinations, Chester and Holyhead could be on the list.

I also suspect that even without electrification and High Speed Two services, but with the new Class 805 trains, the route could be a valuable one for Avanti West Coast.

These are current and promised times for the two legs to Holyhead.

Euston and Crewe – 90 minutes – Fastest Class 390 train
Euston and Crewe – 55 minutes – High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train from Wikipedia
Crewe and Holyhead – 131 minutes – Fastest Class 221 train
Crewe and Holyhead – 70 minutes – 90 mph average speed
Crewe and Holyhead – 63 minutes – 100 mph average speed
Crewe and Holyhead – 57 minutes – 110 mph average speed
Crewe and Holyhead – 53 minutes – 120 mph average speed
Crewe and Holyhead – 45 minutes – 140 mph average speed

Note.

I have assumed that Crewe and Holyhead is 105.5 miles.
The operating speed of the North Wales Coast Line is 90 mph.
In the following estimates, I have assumed a change of train at Crewe, takes 6 minutes.

I think there are several options to run fast services to Chester and North Wales.

Pre-HS2 – Class 805 all the way