A Slight Problem With Covid-19 Vaccination
I had my first AZ vaccine five weeks ago. I have had a slight allergic reaction around the injection spot, as I did with a pneumococcal injection a few months ago.
I am coeliac on a long term gluten-free diet, which means my immune system is probably very strong. Peer-reviewed research at Nottingham University has shown that coeliacs on this diet, do have a 25 % less chance of getting cancer.
I’m no medic, but do sponsor cancer research, and like many I suspect, I am very familiar with how the AZ vaccine uses viral-vector techniques. I suspect my immune system could be reacting to the carrier.
I suspect, we’ll see a few problems like this and some other more serious problems, but I’m fairly sure they can be solved. I might be better with an mRNA vaccine.
Covid-19: World’s First Human Trials Given Green Light In UK
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the first two paragraphs.
Healthy, young volunteers will be infected with coronavirus to test vaccines and treatments in the world’s first Covid-19 “human challenge” study, which will take place in the UK.
The study, which has received ethics approval, will start in the next few weeks and recruit 90 people aged 18-30.
I am 73, but I wish I was in the age range.
I am coeliac and on a long-term gluten-free diet.
For purely selfish reasons, I have been investigating how people like me are faring in the pandemic.
Circumstantial evidence from WHO and government data, personal experiences and a peer-reviewed paper from the University of Padua in Italy certainly indicate, that we don’t suffer worse than the average. But we might be doing much better!
I would certainly like to find out the truth. So if I were younger, I would certainly sign up.
But it would surely be interesting if a handful of the volunteers were coeliacs on a long-term gluten-free diet.
Could We Set Up Covid-19 Vaccine Tourism?
Consider.
- We are a country, which lots of people want to visit for business and/or tourism.
- We have got lots of Covid-19 vaccine.
- It appears that the one-shot Janssen vaccine will come on stream soon from the factory on Teesside.
- We have accurate methods of detecting, if people have the virus.
I also think that in a few weeks time, it might be possible to check, that an incoming tourist from many countries, is totally free of the virus.
So could we operate a system, where incoming passengers from safe countries, go through a procedure similar to this?
- They are tested for Covid-19 before departure and aren’t allowed to fly after a positive test. This is the current procedure.
- On arrival in the UK, they go to a hotel for a night.
- On arrival at the hotel, they are tested for Covid-19.
- If the test is positive, they go straight back in the morning.
- They are then vaccinated with the Janssen vaccine.
After appropriate checks, they are allowed to leave in the morning.
- Those just coming for the vaccination could go straight back from where they came from.
- Those coming for business or tourism, would follow the normal procedure.
I’m certain, that a procedure could be developed, that would be approved by the UK Government.
It would be ideal for a low-cost airline, who could set it up with a local hotel.
Travelling From Countries On The Banned List
Those entering from countries On The banned list would out of courtesy be offered a free vaccine.
Will We Be Able To Open Up In The UK At The End Of April?
This page on Statista is entitled Population Of The United Kingdom In 2019, By Age Group.
Adding their numbers into groups gives.
- Over 70 – 9 million
- 50-69 – 16.2 million
- 30-49 – 17.3 million
- 20-29 – 8.7 million
- Under 20 – 15.6 million
This adds up to a total of 66.8 million.
Consider.
- Over the last three days, over half a million first doses of the vaccines have been given.
- In the first thirteen days of February an average of 443,525 jabs per day were administered.
- In the first thirteen days of February, half a million first doses was exceeded four times.
- Around 80-90 per cent of the four most at risk groups have had their first dose.
- There are at least 70 days to go before the end of April.
I feel it is not unreasonable to expect that we can vaccinate half a million first doses per day, so by the end of April we should administer another 35 million first doses.
If the rate is only 400,000 first doses per day, that is still 28 million first doses.
Conclusion
It looks to me, that everybody over the age of twenty could be offered a first dose of vaccine, with some to spare for those under twenty. in higher risk situations.
So will we be able to open up the UK at the end of April?
It is my view, that the computer could say Yes! It certainly doesn’t say No!
In memory of Dame Barbara and Sir Henry, we should Carry On Jabbing!
The Recovery Trial And Coeliac Disease
The Recovery Trial appears to have been a success, with another drug announced to have positive benefits in fighting Covid-19 today.
As a coeliac on a long-term gluten-free diet like up to one-in-100 or even 1-in-50, in the UK, I wonder what they have found out about my susceptibility to Covid-19 and how my disease would affect my treatment!
I just typed “coeliac” into the Recovery Trial and I found nothing.
Using Google directly, I didn’t get any matches either.
So I suspect that they know nothing about how coeliacs are affected by Covid-19.
Since 1997, after I was diagnosed at Addenbrooke’s Hospital, I’ve been on a strict long-term gluten-free diet, my health has improved dramatically from what it was for the previous fifty years.
My only major health issue, since 1997, has been a serious stroke in 2010, from which I have made an almost full recovery.
But one cardiologist has told me, that the stroke could have been caused by fifty years of unhealthy eating, that damaged my heart muscle to cause atrial fibrillation.
I have only found one serious peer-reviewed study on coeliac disease and Covid-19 on the Internet.
This paper on the US National Library of Medicine, is from the University of Padua in Italy.
The University followed a group of 138 patients with coeliac disease, who had been on a gluten-free diet for at least six years, through the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in Padua.
This sentence, sums up the study.
In this analysis we report a real life “snapshot” of a cohort of CeD patients during the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Italy, all followed in one tertiary centre in a red area of Northern Italy. Our data show, in accordance with Emmi et al., the absolute absence of COVID-19 diagnosis in our population, although 18 subjects experienced flu-like symptoms with only one having undergone naso-pharyngeal swab.
It says that no test subject caught Covid-19, in an admittedly smallish number of patients.
But it reinforces my call for more research into whether if you are a diagnosed coeliac on a long-term gluten-free diet, you have an immune system, that gives you a degree of protection from the Covids.
How Many Patients In The Recovery Trial Are Coeliac?
The Wikipedia entry for The Recovery Trial says this about the numbers of patients.
The trial began in March 2020 and has an estimated duration through June 2021. As of December 2020, the trial had enrolled more than 20,000 COVID-19 participants admitted to hospitals in the UK.
A figure of 1-in-100 is accepted, as an at least figure of the number of coeliacs in the UK population. Some doctors rate it as high as 1-in-50.
So that should mean that somewhere between 200 and 400 of those on the trial were coeliac. But that figure would include those who were both diagnosed and undiagnosed.
I would love to have an answer to my question. But I suspect, that the data is not available.
Another Answer
There could of course be another answer – Diagnosed coeliacs on a long-term gluten-free diet don’t get the virus serious enough to go into hospital.
Italy’s Hardest-Hit Covid-19 Region To Become ‘Hydrogen Valley’
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Energy Live News.
This is the first paragraphs.
Lombardy, Italy’s hardest-hit Covid-19 region, will soon become home to the ‘country’s first hydrogen valley’.
Enel Green Power has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Italian transport group FNM, to purchase new hydrogen-powered trains, replace the current diesel-powered trains and build hydrogen production facilities powered by renewable energy.
These facilities will be constructed to support the journeys of hydrogen trains.
It sounds like good thinking.
An Unusual Hospital Appointment
I have just been sent an appointment from the local hospital for a routine echocardiogram.
What is unusual is that the appointment is for 18:40!
I am 73 and I’ve never had an appointment at a hospital outside of the normal working day.
How unusual?
I suppose it’s just that the hospital is catching up on work, delayed by the covids.
Piers Corbyn Arrested Over Vaccine ‘Auschwitz Leaflet’
The title of this post, is the same as that, of this article on the BBC.
These are the first three paragraphs.
Piers Corbyn has been arrested over leaflets comparing the UK’s Covid-19 vaccine rollout to Auschwitz.
The 73-year-old brother of former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said he voluntarily attended a police station on Wednesday.
He was then arrested on suspicion of malicious communications and public nuisance.
I am a confirmed atheist, but I do have Jewish ancestors. My great-great-great-grandfather was a Jewish tailor and came from Konigsberg in East Prussia.
As people related to my ancestor and therefore myself, were probably sent to Auschwitz and other similar camps and never came out, I feel very annoyed at what Corbyn has been involved in.
Corbyn and his collaborators should undoubtedly feel the full force of the law.
This
Oxford Vaccine Could Substantially Cut Spread
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the first two paragraphs.
The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine could lead to a “substantial” fall in the spread of the virus, say scientists.
The impact of Covid vaccines on transmission has been a crucial unknown that will dramatically shape the future of the pandemic.
The article also says you get this after one dose.
This study – on 17,000 people in the UK, South Africa and Brazil – showed protection remained at 76% during the three months after the first dose.
This rose to 82% after people were given the second dose.
It will be interesting to see, what figures drop out of the data, when millions have been vaccinated twice in the UK.
Conclusion
It looks like very good news to me!
The Jabbers Hit The Jabpot!
It has been announced that yesterday a total of 609,050 does of the vaccine were administered.
It is an incredible figure, made up of 598389 first and 10661 second jabs.
It really was a Super Jabba Saturday, with one report on the BBC, saying that in one vaccination centre in Newcastle, 2,000 people were vaccinated.
If the reported 1,400 vaccination centres around the UK, hit two thousand per day, that is 2.8 million jabs per day and we could vaccinate sixty million people twice in just 43 days. Probably, this is an unachievable time, as not all centres could handle 2000 jabs per day.
I think we’re in for a very statistically interesting few days, as the vaccinators find a level that is at equilibrium with the population and their determination to get vaccinated or not!
I feel, that vaccine supply permitting, the daily number for jabs will be around the psychologically important 500,000.
The Anonymous Widower 