The Future Of HS2 Could Lie In Its Original Vision
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Railway Gazette.
This is the sub-heading.
High Speed 2 should be rescoped to run from London Euston to Crewe, taking advantage of the lessons learned and supply chain foundations established during Phase 1, says Dyan Perry, Chair of the High Speed Rail Group.
The article has been written by Dyan Perry, who knows her railways and especially high speed ones well.
These two first paragraphs introduce her arguments.
High Speed 2 stands at a defining crossroads. Phase 1 from Old Oak Common to Birmingham has the green light, and under the new leadership of HS2 Ltd CEO Mark Wild the project is undergoing a positive and much needed ’reset’. With around 31 000 jobs currently supported, more than 75% of tunnelling completed and construction underway on two-thirds of HS2’s viaducts, momentum is building again.
This fresh injection of energy is welcome after years of shifting goalposts and cuts to the project’s scope. However, while Phase I pushes ahead, the handbrake has been pulled on the next critical phases of the project: the route from the West Midlands to Crewe and Old Oak Common to London Euston.
In the short term, this may appear fiscally sensible. However, as with all infrastructure investments, the project and potential returns must be viewed through a long-term lens. After all, a half-built railway moulded by short-term decision-making risks squandering investment to date and losing billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money.
The High Speed Rail Group (HSRG) has these recommendations.
- A “Euston to Crewe” Core.
- West Midlands to Crewe must be given the go-ahead before the powers to do so run out. This would provide much needed capacity on the West Coast Main Line.
- Use the lessons learned on Phase 1 to build West Midlands to Crewe more effectively.
- Build a streamlined, cost effective station at Euston.
- HSRG believes a concession let for a London to Birmingham and Crewe railway line, one that takes learning from the High Speed One financing model, could generate between £7·5bn and £10bn in concession value, a significant return for taxpayers.
High Speed Two needs a cohesive long term plan.
I very much agree with what Dyan and the HSRG are saying.
I also have some related thoughts.
High Speed East Coast
I am a Control Engineer by training and I’ve felt for some time, that the some of the bottlenecks on the East Coast Main Line to the South of Doncaster could be solved by intelligent digital signalling.
I believe that the major cities of the North-East of England and Eastern Scotland would be best served by direct high speed trains from London on the East Coast Main Line. I also think, that such an approach would deliver similar times to High Speed Two via Birmingham.
North of York
Just as stations on the West Coast to the North of Crewe will be served by High Speed Two and the West Coast Main Line, stations North of York will be served by trains going up the East Coast Main Line.
The Element Of Competition
I said earlier, that if a 30-year concession were to be sold for the West Coast Main Line, it could raise between £7.5bn and £10bn.
So why not sell a concession for the East Coast Main Line?
A further benefit, is that competition between the two concessions and the budget airlines, might bring down timings and prices, just as competition did in the Railway Races of 1888 and 1895.
High Speed North Wales
I have believed for some time, that there is a need for a zero-carbon (green) route between London and Dublin and ultimately between the Channel Tunnel and Dublin.
The last Conservative government promised to electrify Crewe and Holyhead along the North Wales Coast.
This route could deliver passengers to Holyhead for a zero-carbon high speed catamaran to Dublin.
The EU would be a beneficiary and might like to help fund the route.
Where Will Lumo Strike Next?
Yesterday, First Group reported that they had added more possible services to their network of open-access services.
I gave my view in FirstGroup Acquires London – South Wales Open Access Business And Plans Lumo To Devon.
Their list of possible services and destinations include.
- Hull Trains – London King’s Cross and Beverley via Stevenage, Grantham, Retford, Doncaster, Selby, Howden, Brough, Hull Paragon and Cottingham
- Hull Trains – London King’s Cross and Hull Paragon via Stevenage, Grantham, Retford, Doncaster, Selby, Howden and Brough
- Hull Trains – London King’s Cross and Sheffield via Worksop and Woodhouse
- Lumo – London Euston and Rochdale via Warrington Bank Quay, Newton-le-Willows, Eccles and Manchester Victoria
- Lumo – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh/Glasgow via Stevenage, Newcastle and Morpeth
- Lumo – London Paddington and Carmarthen via Bristol Parkway, Newport, Severn Tunnel Junction, Cardiff Central, Gowerton and Llanell
- Lumo – London Paddington and Paignton via Bath Spa, Bristol Temple Meads, Taunton, Exeter St David’s and Torquay
I believe that all services could be run by identical versions of Hitachi’s high speed Intercity Battery Electric Train, which are described in this page on the Hitachi web site.
The London Paddington and Paignton service would require the longest running without electrification at 210 km. and I don’t believe First Group would have put in a bid, unless they were certain zero-carbon trains with sufficient performance would be available.
Other possible open access services could be.
Hull And Blackpool Airport
Note.
- This could be the first half of a Green Route between the North of England and the island of Ireland, if zero-carbon aircraft can fly from Blackpool Airport.
- Trains would call at Selby, Leeds, Bradford, Huddersfield, Manchester Victoria, Blackburn and Preston.
- Blackpool Airport has good access from Squires Gate station and tram stop, which could be improved.
- Blackpool Airport could be well supplied with green electricity and hydrogen from wind power.
These are distances to possible airports.
- Belfast City – 111 nm.
- Belfast International – 114 nm.
- Cardiff – 143 nm.
- Cork – 229 nm.
- Donegal – 200 nm.
- Derry/Londonderry – 163 nm.
- Dublin – 116 nm.
- Inverness – 228 nm
- Ireland West Knock – 204 nm.
- Kerry – 253 nm.
- Ronaldsway, IOM – 59 nm.
- Shannon – 220 nm.
Note.
- The Wikipedia entry for the all-electric Eviation Alice, gives the range with reserves as 250 nm.
- The Belfast and Dublin airports could be within range of a round trip from Blackpool without refuelling.
- ,Cork, Kerry and Shannon airports may need to go by another airport, where a small battery charge is performed.
- The Isle of Man is surprisingly close.
Blackpool has reasonably good coverage for the island of Ireland.
London Euston And Holyhead
This could be the first half of a Green Route to Dublin, if the trains met a high speed hydrogen-powered catamaran to speed passengers across to Dun Laoghaire.
London King’s Cross And Aberdeen Or Inverness
Why not? But these routes would probably be best left to LNER.
London King’s Cross And Grimsby Or Cleethorpes
In Azuma Test Train Takes To The Tracks As LNER Trials Possible New Route, I talked about how LNER had run a test train to Grimsby and Cleethorpes.
The Government might prefer that an open access operator took the risk and got all the blame if the route wasn’t worth running.
Humberside is very much involved in the energy industry, with several gas-fried power-stations at Keadby.
It might be more efficient in terms of trains and infrastructure, if this service was an extension of the Lincoln service.
London King’s Cross And Scarborough Via Beverley
This would probably be one for Hull Trains, but it would also serve Bridlington and Butlin’s at Filey.
The BBC was running a story today about how holiday camps are making a comeback. Surely, one on a direct train from London wouldn’t be a bad thing. for operators, train companies or holidaymakers.
London King’s Cross And Middlesbrough, Redcar Or Saltburn
As with the Grimsby and Cleethorpes service, the government might think, that this might be a better service for an open access operator.
Teesside is heavily involved in the offshore wind industry and may add involvement in the nuclear industry.
London Paddington And Fishguard, Haverfordwest, Milford Haven Or Pembroke Dock
Note.
- This could be the first half of a Green Route to Southern Ireland, if the trains met a high speed hydrogen-powered catamaran to speed passengers across to Rosslare or an electric or hydrogen-powered aircraft from Haverfordwest Airport.
- These three ports and one airport will feature heavily in the development of offshore wind power in the Celtic Sea.
- RWE are already planning a hydrogen electrolyser in Pembrokeshire, as I wrote about in RWE Underlines Commitment To Floating Offshore Wind In The Celtic Sea Through New ‘Vision’ Document.
- According to the Wikipedia entry for Fishguard Harbour station, it was built as a station to handle ship passengers and is now owned by Stena Line, who run the ferries to Rosslare in Ireland.
- I can see a tie-up between FirstGroup and Stena Line to efficiently transfer passengers between Lumo’s planned service to Carmarthen and Stena Line’s ships to Ireland.
All four secondary destinations would be a short extension from Carmarthen.
Summing Up
Note how energy, a Green Route to Ireland and other themes keep appearing.
I do wonder if running a budget train service to an area, is an easy way of levelling up, by attracting people, commuters and industry.
Have the budget airlines improved the areas they serve?
They’ve certainly created employment in the transport, construction and hospitality industries.
Zero-Carbon Ferries And Short-Haul Aircraft
These will be essential for Anglo-Irish routes and many other routes around the world.
I will deal with the ferries first, as to create a zero-carbon ferry, only needs an appropriate power unit to be installed in a ship design that works.
But with aircraft, you have to lift the craft off the ground, which needs a lot of energy.
This article on Transport and Environment is entitled World’s First ‘Carbon Neutral’ ship Will Rely On Dead-End Fuel, with this sentence as a sub-heading.
The Danish shipping giant Maersk announced it will operate the world’s first carbon-neutral cargo vessel by 2023. The company had promised a carbon-neutral container ship by 2030 but now says it will introduce the ship seven years ahead of schedule following pressure from its customers. While welcoming Maersk’s ambition, T&E says the company is betting on the wrong horse by using methanol which may not be sustainable and available in sufficient amounts.
Note.
- I’d not heard of this ship.
- Pressure from customers brought the date forward by seven years.
- As always, it appears that the availability of enough green hydrogen and methanol is blamed.
Perhaps, Governments of the world should put more teeth in green legislation to ensure that companies and governments do what they say they are gong to do?
But worthwhile developments in the field of shipping are underway.
For instance, I estimate that this Artemis Technologies hydrofoil ferry could take passengers across the 54 nautical miles between Dun Laoghaire and Holyhead in around 90 minutes.
This ferry is being designed and built in Northern Ireland and I can’t believe, it is the only development of its type.
A Fast Green Route To Ireland
I have talked about this before in High-Speed Low-Carbon Transport Between Great Britain And Ireland and I am certain that it will happen.
- Air and sea routes between the UK and the island of Ireland carry a lot of traffic.
- Some travellers don’t like flying. Especially in Boeings, which are Ryanair’s standard issue.
- It is the sort of trip, that will appeal to a lot of travellers and most probably a lot with Irish connections.
- An electric or hydrogen-powered aircraft or a fast surface craft will be able to cross the Irish Sea in a quick time.
- High speed trains and then High Speed Two will consistently reduce the travel times on the UK side of the water.
Cross-water travel routes, be they by aircraft, ferries, bridges or tunnels are generally popular and successful.
Conclusion
Given the opportunity at Fishguard, I can see that FirstGroup next move would be to extend the Carmarthen service to Fishguard Harbour.
Anglesey Hydrogen Can Bridge UK’s Energy Gap Says Economics Expert
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the University of Bangor web site.
This is the sub title.
Anglesey can become a UK leader in hydrogen energy technology, cleaning up the transport sector and creating high quality jobs across North Wales, according to a leading Welsh economic expert.
The University of Bangor is a respected university, that goes back to the nineteenth century.
But for Liverpool giving me an unconditional offer, as Bangor was one of the universities on my UCCA form, I could have studied in the North-West corner of Wales.
After a resume of where we are with hydrogen in the world, Dr. Edward Jones of Bangor University outlines how North West Wales can be turned into a hydrogen hub, to join similar hubs at Deeside in Flintshire and at Milford Haven in Pembrokeshire.
This is a paragraph of the article.
Dr Jones believes hydrogen could also hold the key to powering transport in future through a Welsh invention from the 19th century (the hydrogen fuel cell was developed in Swansea by William Grove in 1842).
William Grove was an interesting lawyer and scientist.
Dr. Jones would appear to be very much in favour of using hydrogen to take Wales forward to being zero-carbon in 2050.
I have written a few posts about the transformation of Anglesey and North West Wales, as Wales moves towards this goal. I also have some other thoughts of my own.
Holyhead Hydrogen Hub
This is happening and I wrote about it in Holyhead Hydrogen Hub Planned For Wales.
High Speed Two To Holyhead
I believe this could be a way to create a zero-carbon route between London and Dublin in under five hours and I wrote about it in Could High Speed Two Serve Holyhead?.
- London and Holyhead in a battery-equipped High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train should be under three hours.
- A single High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train would run between London and Holyhead, with a passenger capacity of around five hundred. It would probably split and join with another service at Crewe.
- Discontinuous electrification would be provided along the North Wales Coast Line.
- The trains could call at Old Oak Common, Birmingham Interchange, Chester, Crewe, Llandudno Junction and Bangor.
A High Speed catamaran would speed passengers between Holyhead and Dublin in under two hours.
Hydrogen-Powered Catamarans From Holyhead
The dynamics of a diesel-powered high speed catamaran are well-proven, with some large craft transporting passengers and vehicles on sea crossings all over the world.
Type “hydrogen-powered high speed catamaran” into Google and you get several hits to research and development projects, but no-one appears to have taken a large high speed craft and converted it to hydrogen.
But I do believe that someone somewhere is developing a hydrogen-powered catamaran with something like the following specification.
- 200 passengers
- 100-mile range
- 60 knot operating speed.
The HSC Francisco is a high speed craft that plies between Buenos Aires and Montevideo carrying over a thousand passengers and a hundred cars at 58 knots. It is powered by gas-turbine engines running on liquified natural gas.
I believe I’m not asking for the impossible.
Anglesey Airport As A Zero-Carbon Airport
Anglesey Airport uses part of RAF Valley and has hosted services to Cardiff.
This Google Map shows the runways of RAF Valley.
Note.
- The longest runway 14/32 is over two thousand metres long.
- Rhosneigr station in the South East corner of the map.
- The facilities of Anglesey Airport to the North-East of the runways.
The railway forms the border of the airport, as this second Google map shows.
The railway is straight as it passes the Airport and there would be space for a two-hundred metre bi-directional step-free platform for passengers for the Airport.
Airbus are proposing a hydrogen-powered ZEROe Turbofan.
If you think it looks familiar, I believe that Airbus are proposing to develop the aircraft out of the current Airbus A320neo.
- The capacity will be up to 200 passengers.
- The range will be up to 2000 miles.
- Dublin and Anglesey Airports are just 71.5 miles apart.
- The cruising speed of Mach 0.78 would be irrelevant on this route, as it would probably fly a route to minimise noise.
The plane would probably be able to do several trips between Anglesey and Dublin without refuelling.
As the Port of Holyhead is developing a hydrogen infrastructure, I suspect that to provide hydrogen refuelling at Anglesey Airport would be possible.
I believe that by combining hydrogen-powered aircraft with battery-electric trains, some difficult sea crossings can be made carbon-free.
I believe that Anglesey Airport could be key to a zero-carbon London and Ireland service.
- Airbus are also proposing a 100-seat ZEROe Turboprop.
- Belfast, Cork, Derry and Shannon would also be in range.
Flights could also continue to and from Cardiff.
Reopening The Anglesey Central Railway
This has been proposed as a Beeching Reversal project.
I wrote about it in Reopening The Anglesey Central Railway.
It could be reopened as a zero-carbon railway.
Conclusion
There is a lot of scope to use hydrogen in North West Wales and Anglesey.
The Anonymous Widower 