Shooter Urges Caution On Hydrogen Hubris
The title of this post is the same as that of an article in the January 2021 Edition of Modern Railways.
This is the first paragraph.
Vivarail Chairman Adrian Shooter has urges caution about the widespread enthusiasm for hydrogen technology. In his keynote speech to the Golden Spanner Awards on 27 November, Mr. Shooter said the process to create ‘green hydrogen’ by electrolysis is ‘a wasteful use of electricity’ and was skeptical about using electricity to create hydrogen to then use a fuel cell to power a train, rather than charging batteries to power a train. ‘What you will discover is that a hydrogen train uses 3.5 times as much electricity because of inefficiencies in the electrolysis process and also in the fuel cells’ said Mr. Shooter. He also noted the energy density of hydrogen at 350 bar is only one-tenth of a similar quantity of diesel fuel, severely limiting the range of a hydrogen-powered train between refuelling.
Mr. Shooter then made the following points.
- The complexity of delivering hydrogen to the railway depots.
- The shorter range available from the amount of hydrogen that can be stored on a train compared to the range of a diesel train.
- He points out limitations with the design of the Alstom Breeze train.
This is the last paragraph.
Whilst this may have seemed like a challenge designed purely to promote the battery alternatives that Vivarail is developing, and which he believes to be more efficient, Mr. Shooter explained: ‘I think that hydrogen fuel cell trains could work in this country, but people just need to remember that there are downsides. I’m sure we’ll see some, and in fact we should because competition improves the breed.’
i think Mr. Shooter may have made several good points.
These are my thoughts.
Creating Green Hydrogen
I haven’t done an analysis of the costs of creating green hydrogen from electrolysis, but I have a feeling, that electrolysis won’t be the only way to create large amounts of carbon-free hydrogen, in a few years.
These methods are currently available or under development or construction.
- The hydrogen tram-buses in Pau have a personal electrolyser, that provides hydrogen at 350 bar.
- London’s hydrogen buses will be provided with hydrogen from an electrolyser at Herne Bay by truck. Will the trucks be hydrogen-powered?
Some industrial processes like the Castner-Kellner process create hydrogen as a by-product.
In Shell Process To Make Blue Hydrogen Production Affordable, I describe the Shell Blue Hydrogen Process, which appears to be a way of making massive amounts of carbon-free hydrogen for processes like steel-making and cement production. Surely some could be piped or transported by truck to the rail depot.
In ITM Power and Ørsted: Wind Turbine Electrolyser Integration, I describe how ITM Power and Ørsted plan to create the hydrogen off shore and bring it by pipeline to the shore.
Note.
- The last two methods could offer savings in the cost of production of carbon-free hydrogen.
- Surely, the delivery trucks if used, must be hydrogen-powered.
- The Shell Blue Hydrogen Process uses natural gas as a feedstock and converts it to hydrogen using a newly-developed catalyst. The carbon-dioxide is captured and used or stored.
- If the local gas network has been converted to hydrogen, the hydrogen can be delivered to the depot or filling station through that gas network.
I very much feel that affordable hydrogen can be supplied to bus, train, tram or transport depot. For remote or difficult locations. personal electrolysers, powered by renewable electricity, can be used, as at Pau.
Hydrogen Storage On Trains
Liquid hydrogen could be the answer and Airbus are developing methods of storing large quantities on aircraft.
In What Size Of Hydrogen Tank Will Be Needed On A ZEROe Turbofan?, I calculated how much liquid hydrogen would be needed for this ZEROe Turbofan.
I calculate that to carry the equivalent amount of fuel to an Airbus A320neo would need a liquid hydrogen tank with a near 100 cubic metre capacity. This sized tank would fit in the rear fuselage.
I feel that in a few years, a hydrogen train will be able to carry enough liquid hydrogen in a fuel tank, but the fuel tank will be large.
In The Mathematics Of A Hydrogen-Powered Freight Locomotive, I calculated how much liquid hydrogen would be needed to provide the same amount of energy as that carried in a full diesel tank on a Class 68 locomotive.
The locomotive would need 19,147 litres or 19.15 cubic metres of liquid hydrogen, which could be contained in a cylindrical tank with a diameter of 2 metres and a length of 6 metres.
Hydrogen Locomotives Or Multiple Units?
We have only seen first generation hydrogen trains so far.
This picture shows the Alstom Coradia iLint, which is a conversion of a Coradia Lint.
It is a so-so train and works reasonably well, but the design means there is a lot of transmission noise.
This is a visualisation of an Alstom Breeze or Class 600 train.
Note that the front half of the first car of the train, is taken up with a large hydrogen tank. It will be the same at the other end of the train.
As Mr. Shooter said, Alstom are converting a three-car train into a two-car train. Not all conversions live up to the hype of their proposers.
I would hope that the next generation of a hydrogen train designed from scratch, will be a better design.
I haven’t done any calculations, but I wonder if a lighter weight vehicle may be better.
Hydrogen Locomotives
I do wonder, if hydrogen locomotives are a better bet and easier to design!
- There is a great need all over the world for zero-carbon locomotives to haul freight trains.
- Powerful small gas-turbine engines, that can run on liquid hydrogen are becoming available.
- Rolls-Royce have developed a 2.5 MW gas-turbine generator, that is the size of a beer-keg.
In The Mathematics Of A Hydrogen-Powered Freight Locomotive, I wondered if the Rolls-Royce generator could power a locomotive, the size of a Class 68 locomotive.
This was my conclusion.
I feel that there are several routes to a hydrogen-powered railway locomotive and all the components could be fitted into the body of a diesel locomotive the size of a Class 68 locomotive.
Consider.
- Decarbonising railway locomotives and ships could be a large market.
- It offers the opportunities of substantial carbon reductions.
- The small size of the Rolls-Royce 2.5 MW generator must offer advantages.
- Some current diesel-electric locomotives might be convertible to hydrogen power.
I very much feel that companies like Rolls-Royce and Cummins (and Caterpillar!), will move in and attempt to claim this lucrative worldwide market.
In the UK, it might be possible to convert some existing locomotives to zero-carbon, using either liquid hydrogen, biodiesel or aviation biofuel.
Perhaps, hydrogen locomotives could replace Chiltern Railways eight Class 68 locomotives.
- A refuelling strategy would need to be developed.
- Emissions and noise, would be reduced in Marylebone and Birmingham Moor Street stations.
- The rakes of carriages would not need any modifications to use existing stations.
It could be a way to decarbonise Chiltern Railways without full electrification.
It looks to me that a hydrogen-powered locomotive has several advantages over a hydrogen-powered multiple unit.
- It can carry more fuel.
- It can be as powerful as required.
- Locomotives could work in pairs for more power.
- It is probably easier to accommodate the hydrogen tank.
- Passenger capacity can be increased, if required by adding more coaches.
It should also be noted that both hydrogen locomotives and multiple units can build heavily on technology being developed for zero-carbon aviation.
The Upward Curve Of Battery Power
Sparking A Revolution is the title an article in Issue 898 of Rail Magazine, which is mainly an interview with Andrew Barr of Hitachi Rail.
The article contains a box, called Costs And Power, where this is said.
The costs of batteries are expected to halve in the next years, before dropping further again by 2030.
Hitachi cites research by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) which expects costs to fall from £135/kWh at the pack level today to £67/kWh in 2030 and £47/kWh in 3030.
United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) are predicting that battery energy density will double in the next 15 years, from 700 Wh/l to 1400 Wh/l in 2-35, while power density (fast charging) is likely to increase four times in the same period from 3 kW/kg to 12 kW/kg in 2035.
These are impressive improvements that can only increase the performance and reduce the cost of batteries in all applications.
Hitachi’s Regional Battery Train
This infographic gives the specification of Hitachi Regional Battery Train, which they are creating in partnership with Hyperdrive Innovation.
Note that Hitachi are promising a battery life of 8-10 years.
Financing Batteries
This paragraph is from this page on BuyaCar, which is entitled Electric Car Battery Leasing: Should I Lease Or Buy The Batteries?
When you finance or buy a petrol or diesel car it’s pretty simple; the car will be fitted with an engine. However, with some electric cars you have the choice to finance or buy the whole car, or to pay for the car and lease the batteries separately.
I suspect that battery train manufacturers, will offer similar finance models for their products.
This paragraph is from this page on the Hyperdrive Innovation web site.
With a standardised design, our modular product range provides a flexible and scalable battery energy storage solution. Combining a high-performance lithium-ion NMC battery pack with a built in Battery Management System (BMS) our intelligent systems are designed for rapid deployment and volume manufacture, supplying you with class leading energy density and performance.
I can envisage that as a battery train ages, every few years or so, the batteries will get bigger electrically, but still be the same physical size, due to the improvements in battery technology, design and manufacture.
I have been involved in the finance industry both as a part-owner of a small finance company and as a modeller of the dynamics of their lending. It looks to me, that train batteries could be a very suitable asset for financing by a fund. But given the success of energy storage funds like Gore Street and Gresham House, this is not surprising.
I can envisage that battery electric trains will be very operator friendly, as they are likely to get better with age and they will be very finance-friendly.
Charging Battery Trains
I must say something about the charging of battery trains.
Battery trains will need to be charged and various methods are emerging.
Using Existing Electrification
This will probably be one of the most common methods used, as many battery electric services will be run on partly on electrified routes.
Take a typical route for a battery electric train like London Paddington and Oxford.
- The route is electrified between London Paddington and Didcot Junction.
- There is no electrification on the 10.4 miles of track between Didcot Junction and Oxford.
If a full battery on the train has sufficient charge to take the train from Didcot Junction to Oxford and back, charging on the main line between London Paddington and Didcot Junction, will be all that will be needed to run the service.
I would expect that in the UK, we’ll be seeing battery trains using both 25 KVAC overhead and 750 VDC third rail electrification.
Short Lengths Of New Strategic Electrification
I think that Great Western Railway would like to run either of Hitachi’s two proposed battery electric trains to Swansea.
As there is 45.7 miles pf track without .electrification, some form of charging in Swansea station, will probably be necessary.
The easiest way would probably be to electrify Swansea station and perhaps for a short distance to the North.
This Google Map shows Swansea station and the railway leading North.
Note.
- There is a Hitachi Rail Depot at the Northern edge of the map.
- Swansea station is in South-West corner of the map.
- Swansea station has four platforms.
Swansea station would probably make an excellent battery train hub, as trains typically spend enough time in the station to fully charge the batteries before continuing.
There are other tracks and stations of the UK, that I would electrify to enable the running of battery electric trains.
- Leeds and York, which would enable carbon-free London and Edinburgh services via Leeds and help TransPennine services. This is partially underway.
- Leicester and East Midlands Parkway and Clay Cross North Junction and Sheffield – These two sections would enable EMR InterCity services to go battery electric.
- Sheffield and Leeds via Meadowhall, Barnsley Dearne Valley and the Wakefield Line, which would enable four trains per hour (tph) between Sheffield and Leeds and an extension of EMR InterCity services to Leeds.
- Hull and Brough, would enable battery electric services to Hull and Beverley.
- Scarborough and Seamer, would enable electric services services to Scarborough and between Hull and Scarborough.
- Middlesbrough and Redcar, would enable electric services services to Teesside.
- Crewe and Chester and around Llandudno Junction station – These two sections would enable Avanti West Coast service to Holyhead to go battery electric.
- Shrewsbury station – This could become a battery train hub, as I talked about for Swansea.
- Taunton and Exeter and around Penzance, Plymouth and Westbury stations – These three sections would enable Great Western Railway to cut a substantial amount of carbon emissions.
- Exeter, Yeovil Junction and Salisbury stations. – Electrifying these three stations would enable South Western Railway to run between London and Exeter using Hitachi Regional Battery Trains, as I wrote in Bi-Modes Offered To Solve Waterloo-Exeter Constraints.
We will also need fast chargers for intermediate stations, so that a train can charge the batteries on a long route.
I know of two fast chargers under development.
- Opbrid at Furrer and Frey
- Vivarail’s Fast Charge, which I wrote about in Vivarail’s Plans For Zero-Emission Trains.
I believe it should be possible to battery-electrify a route by doing the following.
- Add short lengths of electrification and fast charging systems as required.
- Improve the track, so that trains can use their full performance.
- Add ERTMS signalling.
- Add some suitable trains.
Note.
- I feel ERTMS signalling with a degree of automatic train control could be used with automatic charging systems, to make station stops more efficient.
- In my view, there is no point in installing better modern trains, unless the track is up to their performance.
What Size Of Hydrogen Tank Will Be Needed On A ZEROe Turbofan?
I believe that Airbus’s proposed ZEROe Turbofan is designed for the same market segment as a A 320 neo.
- This aircraft has a fuel capacity of 26,730 litres of kerosene.
- This will have a mass of 21.38 tonnes.
- Each kilogram of kerosene can produce 46 Mega Joules of energy
- This means that full fuel tanks contain 983, 480 Mega Joules of energy.
- Each litre of liquid hydrogen can produce 10.273 Mega Joules of energy
This means that to carry the same amount of energy will need a 95,734.5 litres or 95.7 cubic metres of liquid hydrogen.
- This could be contained in a cylindrical tank with a diameter of 4 metres and a length of 7.6 metres.
- It would also weigh 6.93 tonnes.
As the range of the A 320 neo is given as 6,300 kilometres and that of the ZEROe Turbofan, as just 3,700 kilometres. the tank could probably be shorter.
Note that I used this Energy And Fuel Data Sheet from Birmingham University.
Conclusion
Carrying as much energy as an A 320 neo will be difficult.
- Range will be reduced.
- A new more efficient airframe will be necessary.
- As volume is probably more of a problem than weight, the fuselage might be lengthened by a few metres.
Designing the hydrogen system will be challenging, but I would be surprised if it were an insurmountable problem.
Could An A320 neo Be Rebuilt As A ZEROe Turbofan?
This post is a follow-up to ZEROe – Towards The World’s First Zero-Emission Commercial Aircraft.
I spent a lot of time yesterday, looking at YouTube videos of the following.
- Airbus A320 aircraft
- Airbus A 320 neo aircraft
- Airbus’s proposed ZEROe Turbofan aircraft
I also captured these profiles from the Airbus web site, of three members of the new Airbus A 320 neo family and the current Airbus A 320 ceo.
A 319 neo – Length – 33.84 metres – Max Passengers – 160
A 320 neo – Length 37.57 metres – Max Passengers – 194
A 321 neo – Length 44.51 metres – Max Passengers – 244
A 320 ceo – Length 37.57 – Max Passengers – 180
Note.
- The links on each variant lead to Airbus’s on-line specification.
- All three variants have a wing-span of 35.8 metres and a height of 11.76 metres.
- All variants have sharklets or blended winglets to improve awrodynamic efficiency.
- There are different door, cargo door and window layouts on all three variants.
- The cockpits, tail and wings look similar.
This capture from an Airbus video, shows the profile of the proposed ZEROe Turbofan.
Note, that the ZEROe Turbofan looks more streamlined than the A 320 neo family, with a redesigned nose and more swept-back tailfin and sharklets.
These are my thoughts on the current A 320 neo family and their relationship with the ZEROe Turbofan.
Focus On Commonality
For each variant on the Airbus web site, there is a section with this title. This is the first sentence for the A 320 neo.
Due to its 95 per cent airframe commonality with the A320ceo (current engine option) version, Airbus’ A320neo jetliner fits seamlessly into existing A320 Family fleets worldwide – which is a key factor for the company’s customers and operators.
Will Airbus follow this philosophy with the ZEROe Turbofan?
If it worked between the changeover between the existing A 320 fleets and the A 320 neo fleets, why change the policy?
The Cockpits
The cockpits of the A 320 neo and the A 320 ceo seem to have a similar profile, but the cockpit of the ZEROe Turbofan seems to have been reprofiled.
In ZEROe – Towards The World’s First Zero-Emission Commercial Aircraft, I showed these front on views of the cockpits of the ZEROe Turboprop and ZEROe Turbofan.
I questioned if the two cockpits were related.
- A single cockpit for both aircraft would surely ease manufacture, maintenance and pilot training.
- I’m no aerodynamicist, but it certainly looks that the new cockpit will reduce drag and fuel consumption.
Although the cockpit, appears to be being used in the ZEROe for the first time, I would expect it is already under development and might feature in any later version of the A 320 neo.
The Fuselages
The fuselage width for both the A 320 neo family and the A 320 ceo are all 3.95 metres, with a maximum cabin width of 3.70 metres.
I would expect that the ZEROe Turboprop and the ZEROe Turbofan will also use this width.
Airbus use a design called Cabin-Flex to get the most out of the interior space in the A 320 neo. This paragraph is from the Wikipedia section, that is entitled Cabin-Flex.
By permanently replacing the second door pair in front of the wing (R2/L2) with a new second pair of overwing exits, the capacity of the A321neo is increased from 220 seats to 240 seats and fuel efficiency per seat is increased by 6%, exceeding 20% together with the new engines and the sharklets. The modifications should weigh 100 kg more.[82] Initial A321neos have the A321ceo exit door configuration with four exit door pairs until the Airbus Cabin-Flex (ACF) layout can be selected.
After reading the whole section, it looks to me, that the A 320 neo fuselage is designed, to be all things to all airlines and doors and seats can be arranged to fit any requirements.
In the ZEROe Turbofan, there is a large liquid hydrogen tank behind the rear pressure bulkhead, which could be brought forward a bit to give more space and hydrogen capacity.
I suspect there will be a lot of commonality between the fuselage of the A 320 neo family and that of a ZEROe Turbofan.
I spent a lot of time, as a child building Airfix models of aircraft and it may be too much of a simplification to think of these carbon-composite airliners, as giant Airfix models.
But I wouldn’t be surprised that just like the previous generation of aluminium airliners, they can be remanufactured into something different, just like British Airways Tristars, ended up as tanker-aircraft for the RAF.
I wouldn’t be surprised to find, that later A 320 neo fuselages will be able to be remanufactured into fuselages for ZEROe Turbofans.
Comparing The Fuselages Of The A 320 ceo, A 320 neo And ZEROe Turbofan
These are the three fuselage profiles.
A 320 ceo
A 320 neo
ZEROe Turbofan
Aircraft balance on the wings, which if I remember what little I know about aircraft aerodynamics and design, apply their lift forces to the centre of gravity of the aircraft.
I know that the profile of the ZEROe is to a different scale, but three things are apparent.
- The windows at the rear don’t go as far back, as they do in the two existing designs. But then there is no need for windows around the hydrogen tank.
- The hydrogen tank could be as long as a quarter of the length of the fuselage.
- The front section of the aircraft appears longer.
The longer front section would balance the weight of the hydrogen tank.
The passengers would also help to balance the weight of the tank, by being placed further forward.
There must be the possibility of creating a larger capacity and longer range variant of the ZEROe design, by adding a larger hydrogen tank and further stretching the nose.
Airbus have been stretching these designs for years, so I suspect that they have plans for a large number of possible variants of the ZEROe Turbofan.
According to the Wikipedia entry for the A 320 neo family, there are already five civil versions of the A 320 neo; A 319 neo, A 320 neo, A 321 neo, A 321LR and A 321XLR, plus corporate and military versions.
Add in the Cabin-Flex interior and the various A320s and the ZEROe to come, must be one of the most flexible transport systems in history.
The Tailplanes
As they are of the same height and look similar, the tail sections of the A 320 neo and A 320 ceo families could be almost identical, but the tail section of the ZEROe Turbofan appears to be slightly more swept-back and perhaps more aerodynamic.
As the ZEROe Turbofan, also appears to have had a nose-job, I would suspect that Airbus have a redesigned fuselage in the works to squeeze more fuel-efficiency out of this family of already very frugal aircraft. Could this feature the more aerodynamic tailplane?
Could this advanced fuselage feature in a later version of the A 320 neo?
I also feel, that the functionality of the tailplane on the ZEROe Turbofan will need to be little different to that on the earlier planes.
- The plane is still powered by two turbofan engines on the wings.
- Rudder forces, with an engine failure on one side, will still be the same.
The big difference will be that the fuel is at the back of the fuselage rather than in the wings, which will affect the balance.
Will this effect the design of the tailplane? I don’t think it will in a large way, as Airbus seem to have lengthened the nose to compensate.
The Wings
All the wings with sharklets for the A 320 neo family and the A 320 ceo have the same wingspan of 35.8 metres, so I would expect they are all substantially similar.
But there is one big difference in that the wings of the conventionally-powered aircraft are full of fuel.
This would probably mean that much of the wing stresses in the ZEROe Turbofan would be like an A 320 neo flying with little fuel in the wing tanks. As some aircraft in the A320 neo family have fuselage tanks, Airbus can even test the wing forces and handling in a real aircraft.
But it does look that Airbus will have little trouble designing, building and certifying the wing of a ZEROe Turbofan.
There is a minor difference in that the sharklets for the ZEROe Turbofan are more extreme.
But then as I said earlier, is there a new more aerodynamic airframe for the A 320 neo in the works?
Conclusion
I very much feel that there will be a route to convert some or all of the A 320 neo aircraft to hydrogen power.
ZEROe – Towards The World’s First Zero-Emission Commercial Aircraft
The title of this post, is the same as that of this Press Release from Airbus.
This is the introductory paragraph.
At Airbus, we have the ambition to develop the world’s first zero-emission commercial aircraft by 2035. Hydrogen propulsion will help us to deliver on this ambition. Our ZEROe concept aircraft enable us to explore a variety of configurations and hydrogen technologies that will shape the development of our future zero-emission aircraft.
Overall, the Press Release discloses a lot and gives details of three different aircraft, which are shown in this Airbus infographic.
Discover the three zero-emission concept aircraft known as ZEROe in this infographic. These turbofan, turboprop, and blended-wing-body configurations are all hydrogen hybrid aircraft.
I have some thoughts that apply to all three concepts.
Hydrogen Hybrid Power
The Press Release says this about the propulsion systems for the three aircraft.
All three ZEROe concepts are hydrogen hybrid aircraft. They are powered by hydrogen combustion through modified gas-turbine engines. Liquid hydrogen is used as fuel for combustion with oxygen.
In addition, hydrogen fuel cells create electrical power that complements the gas turbine, resulting in a highly efficient hybrid-electric propulsion system. All of these technologies are complementary, and the benefits are additive.
There is a Wikipedia entry which is entitled Hydrogen Fuel, where this is said.
Once produced, hydrogen can be used in much the same way as natural gas – it can be delivered to fuel cells to generate electricity and heat, used in a combined cycle gas turbine to produce larger quantities of centrally produced electricity or burned to run a combustion engine; all methods producing no carbon or methane emissions.
It looks like the aircraft will be powered by engines that are not too different to the current engines in today’s aircraft.
This must be a big advantage, in that much of the research done to improve the current gas-turbine powered by aviation fuel will apply.
Liquid Hydrogen
It appears all three aircraft will use liquid hydrogen.
Liquid Hydrogen Storage
I believe the major uses for hydrogen will be aircraft, buses, cars, rail locomotives and multiple units and heavy trucks.
All will need efficient storage of the hydrogen.
Some applications, will use it in liquid form, as it is a more dense form, but it will need to be kept cold.
As aviation will probably be the most demanding application, will it drive the storage technology?
Oxygen
This will be atmospheric oxygen, which is used by any combustion engine.
Fuel Cells
Will the fuel cells be used to provide power for the plane’s systems, rather than to power the aircraft?
Most airlines do this with an auxiliary power unit or APU, which is just a small gas-turbine engine with a generator. The A 320 family use one made by Pratt & Whitney, which is described on this page of their web site. It is the third one on the page and is called a APS3200. This is said about its function.
Pratt & Whitney APS3200 is the Airbus baseline APU of choice for the Airbus A320 family of aircraft. It is designed to meet performance and environmental requirements for modern day, single-aisle aircraft. The APU comprises a single-shaft, fixedspeed, high-pressure ratio core driving a load compressor that provides bleed air for cabin conditioning and main engine starting, concurrent with 90kVA of electrical power.
The APU is usually located in the tail.
In the ZEROe family will there be a fuel-cell powered compressor to provide bleed air for cabin airconditioning and main engine starting?
Slippery Aerodynamics
Airbus seem to be the masters of slippery aerodynamics, which will help make the planes very fuel efficient.
Lightweight Composite Structures
Like the latest Airbus airliners, these planes will be made from lightweight composite structures and I wouldn’t be surprised to see weight saving in other parts of the aircraft.
Carbon Emissions And Pollution
There will be no carbon dioxide produced, as where’s the carbon in the fuel?
But there could be small amounts of the oxides of nitrogen produced, by the combustion, as nitrogen will be present from the air.
Noise
As the aircraft are powered by gas-turbine engines, there will be some noise.
The Mathematics Of Hydrogen-Powered Aviation
The mathematics for these three aircraft must say, that the designs are feasible.
Otherwise Airbus wouldn’t have published a detailed Press Release, only for it to be torn to pieces.
Pressures Driving Aviation In The Next Ten Years
Aviation will change in the text ten years and it will be driven by various competing forces.
Environmental Issues
Pollution, Carbon Emissions and Noise will be the big environmental issues.
Hydrogen will go a long way to reducing the first two issues, but progress with noise will generally be made by better engineering.
COVID-19 And Future Pandemics
These could have a bigger effect, as to make flying safe in these troubled times, passengers will need to be given more space.
But I do wonder, if there is an administrative solution, backed up, by innovative engineering.
Could a very quick test for COVID-19, that would stop infected passengers boarding, coupled with high quality automatic cleaning and air purification, ensure that passengers didn’t get infected?
Entry Into Service
Airbus are quoting 2035 in the Press Release and this YouTube video.
Is that ambitious?
Thoughts On The Three Designs
My thoughts on the three designs, follow in the next three sections.
The ZEROe Turboprop
This is Airbus’s summary of the design for the ZEROe Turboprop.
Two hybrid hydrogen turboprop engines, which drive the six bladed propellers, provide thrust. The liquid hydrogen storage and distribution system is located behind the rear pressure bulkhead.
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the plane.
It certainly is a layout that has been used successfully, by many conventionally-powered aircraft in the past. The De Havilland Canada Dash 8 and ATR 72 are still in production.
The Turboprop Engines
If you look at the Lockheed-Martin C 130J Super Hercules, you will see it is powered by four Rolls-Royce AE 2100D3 turboprop engines, that drive 6-bladed Dowty R391 composite constant-speed fully-feathering reversible-pitch propellers.
These Rolls-Royce engines are a development of an Allison design, but they also form the heart of Rolls-Royce’s 2.5 MW Generator, that I wrote about in Our Sustainability Journey. The generator was developed for use in Airbus’s electric flight research program.
I wouldn’t be surprised to find the following.
- , The propulsion system for this aircraft is under test with hydrogen at Derby and Toulouse.
- Dowty are testing propellers suitable for the aircraft.
- Serious research is ongoing to store enough liquid hydrogen in a small tank that fits the design.
Why develop something new, when Rolls-Royce, Dowty and Lockheed have done all the basic design and testing?
The Fuselage
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the front view of the plane.
From clues in the picture, I estimate that the fuselage diameter is around four metres. Which is not surprising, as the Airbus A320 has a height of 4.14 metres and a with of 3.95 metres.
So is the ZEROe Turboprop based on a shortened Airbus A 320 fuselage?
As the aircraft has a capacity of less than a hundred passengers and an Airbus A320 has six-abreast seating, could the aircraft have sixteen rows of seats.
With the seat pitch of an Airbus A 320, which is 81 centimetres, this means just under thirteen metres for the passengers.
The Technical Challenge
I don’t feel there are any great technical challenges in building this aircraft.
- The engines appear to be conventional and could even have been more-or-less fully developed.
- The fuselage could be a development of an existing design.
- The wings and tail-plane are not large and given the company’s experience with large composite structures, they shouldn’t be too challenging.
- The hydrogen storage and distributing system will have to be designed, but as hydrogen is being used in increasing numbers of applications, I doubt the expertise will be difficult to find.
- The avionics and other important systems could probably be borrowed from other Airbus products.
Given that the much larger and more complicated Airbus A380 was launched in 2000 and first flew in 2005, I think that a prototype of this aircraft could fly around the middle of this decade.
The Market Segment
It may seem small at less than a hundred seats, but it does have a range of greater than a 1000 nautical miles or 1150 miles.
Consider.
- It compares closely in passenger capacity, speed and range, with the De Havilland Canada Dash 8/400 and the ATR 72/600.
- The ATR 72 is part produced by Airbus.
- The aircraft is forty percent slower than an Airbus A 320.
- It is a genuine zero-carbon aircraft.
- It looks like it could be designed to have a Short-Takeoff-And Landing (STOL) capability.
On the other hand, a lot of busy routes, like London and Edinburgh and Berlin and Munich are less than or around 400 miles.
These short routes are being challenged aggressively by the rail industry, as over this sort of distance, which typically takes four hours by train, rail has enough advantages, that passengers may choose not to fly.
Examples of cities with a range of between 400 and 1000 miles from London include.
- Berlin – 571 miles
- Cork – 354 miles
- Inverness – 445 miles
- Lisbon – 991 miles
- Madrid – 781 miles
- Palma – 835 miles
- Rome – 893 miles
- Stockholm – 892 miles
- Warsaw – 900 miles
This aircraft would appear to be sized as an aircraft, that can fly further than passengers are happy to travel by train. But because of its cruising speed, the routes, where it will be viable would probably be limited in duration.
But important routes to, from and between secondary locations, like those that used to be flown by FlyBe, would surely be naturals for this aircraft.
It looks to be an aircraft that could have a big future.
The ZEROe Turbofan
This is Airbus’s summary of the design.
Two hybrid hydrogen turbofan engines provide thrust. The liquid hydrogen storage and distribution system is located behind the rear pressure bulkhead.
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the plane.
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the front view of the plane.
The aircraft doesn’t look very different different to an Airbus A320 and appears to be fairly conventional. It does appear to have the characteristic tall winglets of the A 320 neo.
The Turbofan Engines
These would be standard turbofan engines modified to run on hydrogen, fuelled from a liquid hydrogen tank behind the rear pressure bulkhead of the fuselage.
If you want to learn more about gas turbine engines and hydrogen, read this article on the General Electric web site, which is entitled The Hydrogen Generation: These Gas Turbines Can Run On The Most Abundant Element In the Universe,
Range And Performance
I will compare range, performance and capacity with the latest Airbus A 320.
ZEROe Turbofan
- Range – 2300 miles
- Cruising Speed – Mach 0.78
- Capacity – < 200 passengers
Airbus A 320
- Range – 3800 miles
- Cruising Speed – Mach 0.82
- Capacity – 190 passengers
There is not too much difference, except that the A 320 has a longer range.
The Cockpits Of The ZEROe Turboprop And The ZEROe Turbofan
This gallery puts the two cockpit images together.
Are they by any chance related?
Could the controls and avionics in both aircraft be the same?
A quick look says that like the Boeing 757 and 767, the two planes have a lot in common, which may enable a pilot trained on one aircraft to fly the other, with only minimal extra instruction.
And would it be a simple process to upgrade a pilot from an A 320 to a ZEROe Turbofan?
The Fuselages Of The ZEROe Turboprop And The ZEROe Turbofan
I estimated earlier that the fuselage of the Turboprop was based on the cross-section of the A320.
Looking at the pair of front views, I wouldn’t be surprised to find, that both aircraft are based on an updated A 320 fuselage design.
Passengers and flightcrew would certainly feel at home in the ZEROe Turbofan, if internally, it was the same size, layout and equipment as a standard A 320 or more likely an A 320 neo.
The Market Segment
These are my thoughts of the marketing objectives of the ZEROe Turbofan.
- The cruising speed and the number of passengers are surprisingly close, so has this aircraft been designed as an A 320 or Boeing 737 replacement?
- I suspect too, that it has been designed to be used at any airport, that could handle an Airbus A 320 or Boeing 737.
- It would be able to fly point-to-point flights between most pairs of European or North American cities.
It would certainly fit the zero-carbon shorter range airliner market!
In fact it would more than fit the market, it would define it!
The ZEROe Blended-Wing Body
This is Airbus’s summary of the design.
The exceptionally wide interior opens up multiple options for hydrogen storage and distribution. Here, the liquid hydrogen storage tanks are stored underneath the wings. Two hybrid hydrogen turbofan engines provide thrust.
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the plane.
This aircraft is proposed to have the same performance and capacity as the ZEROe Turbofan, which includes a 2000 nautical mile plus range.
The only other aircraft with a similar shape is the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit or Stealth Bomber. This is not a fast aircraft, but it is able to fly at an altitude of 50,000 ft, which compares to the 60,000 ft of Concorde and the 43,000 ft of an Airbus A 380.
I wonder, if the blended-wing body is designed to fly very high at around the 60,000 ft, which was Concorde territory.
It would only be doing 515 mph and would be well below the speed of sound.
So what is the point on going so high?
The air is very thin and there is a lot less drag.
It is also worth reading Wikipedia on the design of flying wings.
It might be possible to fly much further than 2000 nautical miles. After all Airbus did put in a plus sign!
Is this aircraft the long-distance aircraft of the three?
Extending The Range
I do wonder, if the engines in these aircraft could be capable of running on both hydrogen and aviation biofuel.
As the ZEROe Turboprop and the ZEROe Turbofan planes have empty wings, which in a conventional aircraft would hold fuel, could the space be used to hold aviation biofuel to extend the range?
Certification Of The Planes
The ZEROe Turboprop and ZEROe Turbofan are aircraft, where a lot of the design will already have been proven in previous aircraft, so will probably be much less onerous to approve, than the blended-wing body design.
Conclusion
It looks to me, that Airbus have designed three aircraft to cover the airline market.
I also feel that as the ZEROe Turboprop and ZEROe Turbofan, appear to have conventional airframes, that they could be delivered before 2035.
If I’m right, that the blended-wing body is a high flyer, it will be a ride to experience, travelling at that height all the way to New York.
