DHL Express Determinedly On Course To Achieve Net-Zero Emissions
The title if this post is the same as that of this article on The Lodestar.
This was the introductory paragraph.
DHL Express chief executive John Pearson came out with all guns firing when detailing the firm’s efforts to hit net-zero by 2050, during a press junket this week.
The rest of the article is basically in three sections.
The Use Of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)
Summed up by three sentences.
“When it comes to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), we know this is expensive, but we have also put a big chunk of change into this,” he said.
By the end of the year, we want 2% of flights fuelled by SAF.
DHL has bought 15% of all globally available SAF
DHL seem to have a comprehensive policy on the use of SAF.
This reinforces my view that SAF will be important.
Alternative Approaches
This paragraph sums up some of the more alternative approaches DHL are looking at.
SAF use forms only one part of the migration to net-zero: fleet renewal; decarbonising ground handling; a fuel optimisation programme; and the use of electric aircraft, following the successful September trial over Seattle of the Alice e-cargo plane, are all critical.
I suspect there are other alternative approaches.
Fleet Renewal
The last two paragraphs talk about fleet renewal.
Fleet renewal comes after a particularly pronounced moment of growth for the company: it added 10 widebody and 70 small- and medium-body planes during the pandemic.
Described by Boeing as one of the most “fuel-efficient” aircraft on the market, thanks to its twin-engine design, the 777 freighter forms a central part of DHL Express’ renewal plans, said Mr Pearson, adding that 28 were on order.
With 28 777 freighters on order, DHL will need a lot of SAF.
A Last Thought
Given the size of DHL’s fleet, which in their Wikipedia entry is given as 197, seventy-three of which are narrow bodies, I am surprised that no dedicated zero-carbon small or medium-sized cargo aircraft, except for the Alice is under development.
Perhaps, in areas like Europe, this niche is being taken by rail or perhaps by Airbus’s proposed hydrogen-powered ZEROe Turbofan.
I wrote in detail about this hydrogen-powered aircraft in Could An A320 neo Be Rebuilt As A ZEROe Turbofan?.
Airbus say that the passenger version of the ZEROe Turbofan could handle up to 200 passengers, despite having a large hydrogen tank in the rear fuselage.
The cargo capacity of a ZEROe Turbofan would probably be a bit smaller than say the latest Airbus A321 or Boeing 737, but if the hydrogen-powered aircraft was built to accept a stretch, I wouldn’t be surprised to find it was a viable aircraft for DHL, with a fuselage stretch!
It would surely help passengers of future hydrogen-powered aircraft, overcome their fear of an aircraft fueled by hydrogen.
The ZEROe Turbofan is quoted as having a range in excess of two thousand nautical miles, so it would have Europe and North America fairly well covered.
I also wouldn’t rule out use of Airbus’s proposed hydrogen-powered ZEROe Turboprop for flying cargo.
It would have a smaller capacity than the ZEROe Turbofan.
- It would have a useful range of over a thousand nautical miles.
- I feel that both ZEROe aircraft have the same fuselage cross-section, which could ease cargo handling, by using the same equipment for both aircraft.
- I also feel that both ZEROe aircraft will have the same cockpit, which should reduce crew costs.
I feel that smaller cargo aircraft will play a large part in the development of hydrogen-powered aircraft.
If the plans of some companies and individuals work out, hydrogen might be a better alternative financially to SAF.
Aerospace Electrified By New Technology
The title of this post, is the same as of this article on the BBC.
The article is a good summary of the state of zero-carbon aviation.
The ZEROe Demonstrator Has Arrived
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from Airbus.
This is the introductory paragraph.
2022 marks a new and exciting phase for ZEROe – Airbus’ ambition to develop the world’s first zero-emission commercial aircraft by 2035. The multi-year demonstrator programme has officially been launched with the objective to test a variety of hydrogen technologies both on the ground and in the air.
The ZEROe demonstrator will be the first Airbus A 380 aircraft and it is shown in this Airbus visualisation.
Note.
- The four hydrogen tanks in the fuselage.
- The fifth engine mounted in a pod on the fuselage.
- There’s certainly lots of space inside the fuselage for more hydrogen tanks and test and monitoring equipment.
I have a few thoughts.
This Aircraft Will Be A Superb Demonstrator
The press release says this about the use of an A 380 as a demonstrator.
The A380 is the world’s largest and most spacious passenger jet ever built – a size that makes it ideally suited to the role of test platform.
Today, the A380 MSN1 test aircraft is earmarked for a new role: to take the lead on testing the technologies that will be vital to bringing the world’s first zero-emission aircraft to market by 2035.
“The A380 MSN1 is an excellent flight laboratory platform for new hydrogen technologies,” says Mathias Andriamisaina, Airbus ZEROe Demonstrator Leader. “It’s a safe and reliable platform that is highly versatile to test a wide range of zero-emission technologies. In addition, the platform can comfortably accommodate the large flight test instrumentation that will be needed to analyse the performance of the hydrogen in the hydrogen-propulsion system.”
Initially, I suspect the aircraft will fly as a four-engined turbofan aircraft running on standard or sustainable aviation fuel.
The performance of the hydrogen engine will be tested in all phases of operation and at different altitudes.
What Size Is The Fifth Engine?
This layout is clever.
If Airbus want to test a smaller hydrogen engine for say an Airbus A 320-sized hydrogen aircraft like the ZEROe Turbofan shown in this Airbus visualisation, they fit it to the fifth pylon.
Note.
- The fifth pylon on the ZEROe Demonstrator could be the proposed pylon for the ZEROe Turbofan.
- The ZEROe Demonstrator could probably carry a lot of hydrogen to test out the hydrogen engine over a long duration.
- The hydrogen engine could be tested out over the full flight envelop of an Airbus A 380.
I would suspect that the tests on the hydrogen engine would be some of the most comprehensive ever carried out on a new engine.
If Airbus want to test a larger hydrogen engine for say an Airbus A 350-sized hydrogen aircraft, they would probably replace one of the four main engines with the hydrogen engine.
It looks like Airbus will be able to test hydrogen engines for all sizes of plane in their current range.
What Will Happen To Current A 380s?
Consider.
- The production of the A 380 has been stopped.
- There are 251 aircraft in service.
- They appear to be a reliable and safe aircraft.
- The aircraft can run on sustainable aviation fuel.
- The oldest aircraft are only thirteen years old.
- They are still reasonably modern aircraft, that if they needed to be updated to the latest standards could probably be easily done so.
- The aircraft have a lot of volume, which can hold over 500 passengers in a typical configuration.
- The flying characteristics and structure of the aircraft is well known.
I suspect there are a lot of aircraft leasing companies, who feel these aircraft are too good to scrap, just because they are not zero-carbon.
Could Hydrogen Be Stored In The Wing Of An A 380?
Hydrogen storage will get more capable in the next few years and we will see hydrogen stored in strange places in vehicles and aircraft using the gas as a fuel.
The A 380 may well have an advantage in that its wing is relatively thick compared to that of other airliners.
- The A 380 has a wing aspect ratio of 7.53.
- The Boeing 787 has a wing aspect ratio of 11.
- Gliders have wing aspect ratios as upwards of 30.
High aspect ratios are generally more economical on fuel.
But this relatively thick wing, may make it possible to store hydrogen in the wing of an A 380.
Could There Be A Hydrogen-Powered A 380?
I suspect part of the Airbus ZEROe progam will be to investigate the possibility of converting existing A 380 aircraft into a capable hydrogen-powered aircraft.
In Could An A320 neo Be Rebuilt As A ZEROe Turbofan?, I looked at the possibility of turning an existing Airbus A 320 neo into a ZEROe Turbofan running on hydrogen.
This was my conclusion.
I very much feel that there will be a route to convert some or all of the A 320 neo aircraft to hydrogen power.
So what will a ZEROe A 380 look like if it follows the same design route as an A 320 neo to a ZEROe Turbofan?
- There would be a large hydrogen tank in the rear fuselage.
- As I explained earlier, there may be a possibility for some hydrogen to be stored in the wing.
- Both passenger decks would be shortened and perhaps be able to hold the 350-410 passengers of the Airbus A350-1000.
- The cockpit, front part of the fuselage, wings, tailplane and landing gear would be unchanged.
- The aircraft would fit existing jetways at any airport, that can handle an existing A 380.
I believe that converting an existing Airbus A380 to a hydrogen-powered aircraft is possible and the conversion falls within Barnes Wallis‘s rule of problem solving.
There is no greater thrill in life, that proving something is impossible and then showing how it can be done.
The quote comes from a BBC program, where he was interviewed by Chris Brasher, who was another for whom impossible was just a minor hurdle in the way of meeting objectives.
Could There Be A Hydrogen-Powered A 380 Freighter?
Consider.
- I think it is likely, that companies like Amazon will come under pressure over their carbon footprint, as they transport increasing numbers of packages around the world.
- In DHL Express Shapes Future For Sustainable Aviation With First Order Of All-Electric Cargo Planes From Eviation, I talk about how DHL Express have ordered twelve Eviation Alice aircraft to create a zero-carbon service. DHL must feel this would be good for their image. So would they like an intercontinental zero-carbon freighter?
- Some people worry about the air-miles on their food!
There could be a worthwhile niche market for a high capacity intercontinental zero-carbon freighter.
Because it has such a large internal volume, an Airbus A 380 might make an ideal aircraft to convert.
Conclusion
Airbus will learn a lot from the ZEROe Demonstrator.
They may even learn how to develop, a long-range hydrogen-powered zero-carbon A 380 variant that could carry four hundred passengers between Europe and Australia.
Anglesey Hydrogen Can Bridge UK’s Energy Gap Says Economics Expert
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the University of Bangor web site.
This is the sub title.
Anglesey can become a UK leader in hydrogen energy technology, cleaning up the transport sector and creating high quality jobs across North Wales, according to a leading Welsh economic expert.
The University of Bangor is a respected university, that goes back to the nineteenth century.
But for Liverpool giving me an unconditional offer, as Bangor was one of the universities on my UCCA form, I could have studied in the North-West corner of Wales.
After a resume of where we are with hydrogen in the world, Dr. Edward Jones of Bangor University outlines how North West Wales can be turned into a hydrogen hub, to join similar hubs at Deeside in Flintshire and at Milford Haven in Pembrokeshire.
This is a paragraph of the article.
Dr Jones believes hydrogen could also hold the key to powering transport in future through a Welsh invention from the 19th century (the hydrogen fuel cell was developed in Swansea by William Grove in 1842).
William Grove was an interesting lawyer and scientist.
Dr. Jones would appear to be very much in favour of using hydrogen to take Wales forward to being zero-carbon in 2050.
I have written a few posts about the transformation of Anglesey and North West Wales, as Wales moves towards this goal. I also have some other thoughts of my own.
Holyhead Hydrogen Hub
This is happening and I wrote about it in Holyhead Hydrogen Hub Planned For Wales.
High Speed Two To Holyhead
I believe this could be a way to create a zero-carbon route between London and Dublin in under five hours and I wrote about it in Could High Speed Two Serve Holyhead?.
- London and Holyhead in a battery-equipped High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train should be under three hours.
- A single High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train would run between London and Holyhead, with a passenger capacity of around five hundred. It would probably split and join with another service at Crewe.
- Discontinuous electrification would be provided along the North Wales Coast Line.
- The trains could call at Old Oak Common, Birmingham Interchange, Chester, Crewe, Llandudno Junction and Bangor.
A High Speed catamaran would speed passengers between Holyhead and Dublin in under two hours.
Hydrogen-Powered Catamarans From Holyhead
The dynamics of a diesel-powered high speed catamaran are well-proven, with some large craft transporting passengers and vehicles on sea crossings all over the world.
Type “hydrogen-powered high speed catamaran” into Google and you get several hits to research and development projects, but no-one appears to have taken a large high speed craft and converted it to hydrogen.
But I do believe that someone somewhere is developing a hydrogen-powered catamaran with something like the following specification.
- 200 passengers
- 100-mile range
- 60 knot operating speed.
The HSC Francisco is a high speed craft that plies between Buenos Aires and Montevideo carrying over a thousand passengers and a hundred cars at 58 knots. It is powered by gas-turbine engines running on liquified natural gas.
I believe I’m not asking for the impossible.
Anglesey Airport As A Zero-Carbon Airport
Anglesey Airport uses part of RAF Valley and has hosted services to Cardiff.
This Google Map shows the runways of RAF Valley.
Note.
- The longest runway 14/32 is over two thousand metres long.
- Rhosneigr station in the South East corner of the map.
- The facilities of Anglesey Airport to the North-East of the runways.
The railway forms the border of the airport, as this second Google map shows.
The railway is straight as it passes the Airport and there would be space for a two-hundred metre bi-directional step-free platform for passengers for the Airport.
Airbus are proposing a hydrogen-powered ZEROe Turbofan.
If you think it looks familiar, I believe that Airbus are proposing to develop the aircraft out of the current Airbus A320neo.
- The capacity will be up to 200 passengers.
- The range will be up to 2000 miles.
- Dublin and Anglesey Airports are just 71.5 miles apart.
- The cruising speed of Mach 0.78 would be irrelevant on this route, as it would probably fly a route to minimise noise.
The plane would probably be able to do several trips between Anglesey and Dublin without refuelling.
As the Port of Holyhead is developing a hydrogen infrastructure, I suspect that to provide hydrogen refuelling at Anglesey Airport would be possible.
I believe that by combining hydrogen-powered aircraft with battery-electric trains, some difficult sea crossings can be made carbon-free.
I believe that Anglesey Airport could be key to a zero-carbon London and Ireland service.
- Airbus are also proposing a 100-seat ZEROe Turboprop.
- Belfast, Cork, Derry and Shannon would also be in range.
Flights could also continue to and from Cardiff.
Reopening The Anglesey Central Railway
This has been proposed as a Beeching Reversal project.
I wrote about it in Reopening The Anglesey Central Railway.
It could be reopened as a zero-carbon railway.
Conclusion
There is a lot of scope to use hydrogen in North West Wales and Anglesey.
Ryanair Backs Away From Boeing Jet Order
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on The Times.
These are the first two paragraphs.
Ryanair has ended talks to purchase tens of billions of dollars of Boeing jets amid a stand-off over the price.
The Irish budget airline had been in talks to buy as many as 250 planes of the 737 Max 10 model but said yesterday that the talks had collapsed.
But have Michael O’Leary and Boeing fallen out over hydrogen?
Consider.
- Many countries in Ryanair’s largest markets are aiming to go net carbon-free by 2050 or even earlier. Scotland is aiming for 2045.
- An airliner delivered today will still be flying twenty or even thirty years later.
- I believe that by 2030, small airliners up to thirty passengers will be zero-carbon.
In Could An A320 neo Be Rebuilt As A ZEROe Turbofan?, I came to this conclusion.
I very much feel that there will be a route to convert some or all of the A 320 neo aircraft to hydrogen power.
If Airbus can offer an airliner, that can be rebuilt as a hydrogen-powered plane that must change the economics of purchasing a fleet of airliners, which could be made worthless by worldwide carbon emission legislation.
Because the Boeing aircraft is a 1960s design with an aluminium airframe, I would doubt it is designed to be converted to hydrogen power.
Councillors Approve Train Station For Inverness Airport
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Rail Technology Magazine.
These are the first two paragraphs.
Planning permission has finally been granted for a two-platform train station at Inverness Airport.
The plans were “reluctantly” granted by the Highland Council, as much debate over the Petty Level crossing which is to be removed as a consequence.
Ir certainly looks like there were strong arguments over the level crossing.
This Network Rail visualisation shows the station from a virtual helicopter hovering over the Airport.
And this Google Map shows the Airport from the South-West
Note.
- The link road to the A96 crossing the railway in both images. But from opposite directions.
- In the Network Rail visualisation you can see the roundabout, where the link road joins the A96 in the top left corner.
- The current railway is only single track, but Network Rail will be doubling it.
- From these images and this document on the Network Rail web site, I can deduce this about the station.
- The station will have two platforms that will be capable of handling six-car trains.
- The footbridge is shown with lifts.
- The station will be able to be used as a Park-and-Ride for Inverness.
I suspect there will be a shuttle bus to the Airport terminal.
Travel Between London And Inverness
I’ve been to Inverness twice and and in both cases, I’ve gone by train.
- The first time, I went by a day train from Edinburgh. And I was in the cab courtesy of East Coast. I wrote about it in Edinburgh to Inverness in the Cab of an HST.
- The other occasion, I took the Caledonian Sleeper to Inverness and that is a civilised way to go.
I feel that on this route very keen competition could develop.
Advantages Of Flying
Flying to Inverness Airport has these advantages.
- A shorter journey time.
- A greater choice of destinations.
- Destinations in the sun.
- After the new station is built it will be rail connected all the way to Aberdeen.
This Google map shows Inverness and Inverness Airport.
Note.
- The city of Inverness is at the Southern end of the Moray Firth.
- With all the water, I suspect the airport can be a good neighbour as far as noise and pollution are concerned.
- The Airport would have good access to green hydrogen and electricity from renewable sources.
- Even the Airport train and all the ground-handling equipment could run on hydrogen.
I feel that the Airport could sell itself as an environmentally-friendly way to the Highlands, when sufficient numbers of zero-carbon aircraft are available.
- You should be able to fly in from Amsterdam, Birmingham, Brussels, Geneva, London, Manchester etc. and not feel any environmental guilt.
- Airbus’s proposed hydrogen-powered ZEROe Turbofan is quoted as having a range of 2,000+ nautical miles,
- That distance would put a lot of the sun in range of Inverness Airport.
- Smaller feeder airliners could connect to other airports in the North of Scotland and the islands.
Inverness Airport will not be beaten without a fight.
Advantages Of Trains
Taking the train to Inverness has the following advantages.
- Luxury
- Zero Carbon-Footprint
- The possibility of an overnight trip on a sleeper train.
- The scenery through the Highlands.
I also believe that it would be possible to design a hydrogen-powered luxury train. I laid out my ideas in LNER Seeks 10 More Bi-Modes.
I believe a train could have this specification.
- 140 mph operation on 25 KVAC overhead electrification. This was done by British Rail almost forty years ago.
- Ability to use full digital in-cab signalling. This is on its way and already working in some applications.
- 110 mph operation on hydrogen. Hitachi are planning 100 mph battery trains, so it should be possible.
- 400 mile range on one filling of hydrogen. This is working in Germany.
- Ability to be upgraded to higher speeds on electric power, should the East Coast Main Line be upgraded for higher speeds in the future. The train manufacturers are probably ahead of track designers with this one.
I believe a sub-seven hour time would be possible between London and Inverness.
Conclusion
This is the sort of route, where rail and air will have a hard fight for supremacy.
Wizz Air Plans Cheaper Fares As Capacity Grows
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on The Times.
This is the introductory paragraph.
One of Europe’s leading budget airlines is forecasting a sharp drop in the price of fares as it expects to increase the number of flights this summer to as much as 80 per cent of normal capacity.
That sounds fair to me, as it’s just supply and demand.
I’ve only ever flown Wizz Air once and that was from Liverpool to Gdansk, where I had a memorable couple of days, before taking the train home to London.
I would certainly rate them better than Ryanair.
The article intrigued me.
It said that Wizz Air had made a large loss but had raised a sum to more than cover it on the bond market.
So I looked up their fleet on Wikipedia.
- A 320-200 – 66
- A 320 neo – 6
- A 321-200 – 41
- A 321 neo – 23 – Deliveries until 2026
- A 321 XLR – 20 – Deliveries from 2023 to 2026
In 2026, Wizz Air will end up with forty-nine neo aircraft and how many of the 107 older ones, they want to keep.
Under Environmental Protection on the Wikipedia entry for Wizz Air, this is said.
One year later, in November 2020, among the European airlines, Wizz Air was able to show the lowest CO2 emissions per passenger / kilometre and underlined their commitment to further reducing their environmental footprint. As part of their strategy, all fuel-saving flight phases of take-off and landing are continuously monitored for maximum environmental optimization, which has a significant impact on further continuous reductions in CO2 emissions.
I would assume, that this means, they take carbon emissions seriously.
When I saw these fleet sizes and put them together with Wizz Air, I wondered if Airbus have offered the airline a route to decarbonisation by converting the neo aircraft to hydrogen. I believe this is possible and said so in Could An A320 neo Be Rebuilt As A ZEROe Turbofan?
These fleet sizes don’t rule it out and if there was a way to remanufacture later A 320s to hydrogen aircraft, it would be a good way to continue to sell aircraft.
IAG To Operate 10 Per Cent Of Flights With Sustainable Aviation Fuel By 2030
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Business Traveller.
These are the first two paragraphs.
International Airlines Group has announced a commitment to operate 10 per cent of its flights with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030.
The owner of Aer Lingus, British Airways, Iberia and Vueling says it will purchase one million tonnes of sustainable jet fuel per year, enabling it to cut its annual emissions by two million tonnes by 2030.
It is a welcome development.
My feeling is that although a lot of greens, think that sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is a cop-out, it is the only way we have to cut aviation’s carbon emissions in the short-term.
- It would not need any expensive modifications to aircraft.
- SAF can also be delivered to airports using existing infrastructure like pipelines or rail tankers.
- SAF can be made from household and industrial waste, disposable nappies and other materials like scrap wood and unwanted clothes, most of which will otherwise end up in landfill.
I also think that SAF could be a way to decarbonise existing rail locomotives by replacing the diesel engines with gas turbines.
So will IAG commitment give a boost to the production of SAF? I certainly hope it does, as we’ll all benefit.
Hydrogen-Powered Aircraft
This infographic from Airbus shows three of their proposed designs for hydrogen-powered aircraft.

Discover the three zero-emission concept aircraft known as ZEROe in this infographic. These turbofan, turboprop, and blended-wing-body configurations are all hydrogen hybrid aircraft.
Two of the designs; the ZEROe Turboprop and ZEROe Turbofan appear to have been designed by re-engineering current technology and designs.
The one I like is the Turbofan, which I feel is based on the airframe of the current A 320 neo.
- Much of the wing, cockpit and fuselage appear very similar to that of the A 320 neo
- There is a hydrogen tank in the rear fuselage.
- The engines are probably modern turbofans, adjusted to run on hydrogen.
- Range and passenger capacity are very similar to the current aircraft.
- The ZEROe Turbofan would fit current airport infrastructure like tugs and terminals.
- Aircrew would need little retraining between current A 320s and ZEROe Turbofans.
There might even be the possibility of being able to convert an A 320 neo into a ZEROe Turbofan!
But there is a flaw in my reasoning.
IAG have placed a large order for Boeing 737 MAX aircraft. Wikipedia says this in the entry for IAG.
In June 2019, IAG signed a letter of intent to purchase 200 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft even though at the time of the signing the 737 MAX was still grounded worldwide following the two fatal crashes likely caused by the design of the MCAS system. Aviation analysts have questioned IAG’s leadership in making such an order when the 737 MAX design is still being rectified. IAG CEO Willie Walsh, shrugged off the plane’s uncertain future. “We’re partnering with the Boeing brand”, he said. “That’s the brand that I’m doing business with. That’s the brand that I’ve worked with for years. And it’s a brand that I trust”
Could Boeing have offered a 737 MAX, that can be converted to hydrogen?
I certainly feel that both a 737 MAX and an A 320 neo can be converted to hydrogen.
- The visualisations from Airbus of the A 320 neo and the ZEROe Turbofan are remarkably similar.
- The 737 MAX is a traditional aluminium aircraft, so may be easier to convert.
- As Boeing probably need a winner more urgently than Airbus, perhaps they can deliver a hydrogen-powered aircraft around the middle of the decade.
- Both aircraft are a bit like Lego and can be shortened or lengthened as required.
- Perhaps one or other of the planemakers have come up with a technique for storing environmentally-friendly liquid ammonia in the wings.
- See Could Current Airliners Be Fuelled With Ammonia?
As my mother used to say. “It’ll all come out in the wash!”
But I do feel by 2030, we’ll be seeing zero-carbon airlines on short-haul routes. So IAG’s aim of getting ten percent of planes powered by SAF by 2030, is probably a stop-gap that will continue with older planes for some years.
High-Speed Low-Carbon Transport Between Great Britain And Ireland
Consider.
- According to Statista, there were 13,160,000 passengers between the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic in 2019.
- In 2019, Dublin Airport handled 32,907,673 passengers.
- The six busiest routes from Dublin were Heathrow, Stansted, Amsterdam, Manchester, Birmingham and Stansted.
- In 2018, Belfast International Airport handled 6,269,025 passengers.
- The four busiest routes from Belfast International Airport were Stansted, Gatwick. Liverpool and Manchester, with the busiest route to Europe to Alicante.
- In 2018, Belfast City Airport handled 2,445,529 passengers.
- The four busiest routes from Belfast City Airport were Heathrow, Manchester, Birmingham and London City.
Note.
- The busiest routes at each airport are shown in descending order.
- There is a lot of air passengers between the two islands.
- Much of the traffic is geared towards London’s four main airports.
- Manchester and Liverpool get their fair share.
Decarbonisation of the air routes between the two islands will not be a trivial operation.
But technology is on the side of decarbonisation.
Class 805 Trains
Avanti West Coast have ordered thirteen bi-mode Class 805 trains, which will replace the diesel Class 221 trains currently working between London Euston and Holyhead.
- They will run at 125 mph between Euston and Crewe using electric power.
- If full in-cab digital signalling were to be installed on the electrified portion of the route, they may be able to run at 140 mph in places under the wires.
- They will use diesel power on the North Wales Coast Line to reach Holyhead.
- According to an article in Modern Railways, the Class 805 trains could be fitted with batteries.
I wouldn’t be surprised that when they are delivered, they are a version of the Hitachi’s Intercity Tri-Mode Battery Train, the specification of which is shown in this Hitachi infographic.
Note.
- I suspect that the batteries will be used to handle regenerative braking on lines without electrification, which will save diesel fuel and carbon emissions.
- The trains accelerate faster, than those they replace.
- The claimed fuel and carbon saving is twenty percent.
It is intended that these trains will be introduced next year.
I believe that, these trains will speed up services between London Euston and Holyhead.
- Currently, services take just over three-and-a-half hours.
- There should be time savings on the electrification between London Euston and Crewe.
- The operating speed on the North Wales Coast Line is 90 mph. This might be increased in sections.
- Some extra electrification could be added, between say Crewe and Chester and possibly through Llandudno Junction.
- I estimate that on the full journey, the trains could reduce emissions by up to sixty percent compared to the current diesel trains.
I think that a time of three hours could be achievable with the Class 805 trains.
New trains and a three hour journey time should attract more passengers to the route.
Holyhead
In Holyhead Hydrogen Hub Planned For Wales, I wrote about how the Port of Holyhead was becoming a hydrogen hub, in common with several other ports around the UK including Felixstowe, Harwich, Liverpool and Portsmouth.
Holyhead and the others could host zero-carbon hydrogen-powered ferries.
But this extract from the Wikipedia hints at work needed to be done to create a fast interchange between trains and ferries.
There is access to the port via a building shared with Holyhead railway station, which is served by the North Wales Coast Line to Chester and London Euston. The walk between trains and ferry check in is less than two minutes, but longer from the remote platform 1, used by Avanti West Coast services.
This Google Map shows the Port of Holyhead.
I think there is a lot of potential to create an excellent interchange.
HSC Francisco
I am using the high-speed craft Francisco as an example of the way these ships are progressing.
- Power comes from two gas-turbine engines, that run on liquified natural gas.
- It can carry 1024 passengers and 150 cars.
- It has a top speed of 58 knots or 67 mph. Not bad for a ship with a tonnage of over 7000.
This ship is in service between Buenos Aires and Montevideo.
Note.
- A craft like this could be designed to run on zero-carbon liquid hydrogen or liquid ammonia.
- A high speed craft already runs between Dublin and Holyhead taking one hour and forty-nine minutes for the sixty-seven miles.
Other routes for a specially designed high speed craft might be.
- Barrow and Belfast – 113 miles
- Heysham and Belfast – 127 miles
- Holyhead and Belfast – 103 miles
- Liverpool and Belfast – 145 miles
- Stranraer and Larne – 31 miles
Belfast looks a bit far from England, but Holyhead and Belfast could be a possibility.
London And Dublin Via Holyhead
I believe this route is definitely a possibility.
- In a few years, with a few improvements on the route, I suspect that London Euston and Holyhead could be fairly close to three hours.
- With faster bi-mode trains, Manchester Airport and Holyhead would be under three hours.
- I would estimate, that a high speed craft built for the route could be under two hours between Holyhead and Dublin.
It certainly looks like London Euston and Dublin and Manchester Airport and Dublin would be under five hours.
In A Glimpse Of 2035, I imagined what it would be like to be on the first train between London and Dublin via the proposed fixed link between Scotland and Northern Ireland.
- I felt that five-and-a-half hours was achievable for that journey.
- The journey would have used High Speed Two to Wigan North Western.
- I also stated that with improvements, London and Belfast could be three hours and Dublin would be an hour more.
So five hours between London Euston and Dublin using current technology without massive improvements and new lines could be small change well spent.
London And Belfast Via Holyhead
At 103 miles the ferry leg may be too long for even the fastest of the high speed craft, but if say the craft could do Holyhead and Belfast in two-and-a-half hours, it might just be a viable route.
- It might also be possible to run the ferries to a harbour like Warrenpoint, which would be eighty-six miles.
- An estimate based on the current high speed craft to Dublin, indicates a time of around two hours and twenty minutes.
It could be viable, if there was a fast connection between Warrenpoint and Belfast.
Conclusion
Once the new trains are running between London Euston and Holyhead, I would expect that an Irish entrepreneur will be looking to develop a fast train and ferry service between England and Wales, and the island of Ireland.
It could be sold, as the Greenest Way To Ireland.
Class 807 Trains
Avanti West Coast have ordered ten electric Class 807 trains, which will replace some of the diesel Class 221 trains.
- They will run at 125 mph between Euston and Liverpool on the fully-electrified route.
- If full in-cab digital signalling were to be installed on the route, they may be able to run at 140 mph in places.
- These trains appear to be the first of the second generation of Hitachi trains and they seem to be built for speed and a sparking performance,
- These trains will run at a frequency of two trains per hour (tph) between London and Liverpool Lime Street.
- Alternate trains will stop at Liverpool South Parkway station.
In Will Avanti West Coast’s New Trains Be Able To Achieve London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street In Two Hours?, I came to the conclusion, that a two-hour journey time was possible, when the new Class 807 trains have entered service.
London And Belfast Via Liverpool And A Ferry
Consider.
- An hour on the train to and from London will be saved compared to Holyhead.
- The ferry terminal is in Birkenhead on the other side of the Mersey and change between Lime Street station and the ferry could take much longer than at Holyhead.
- Birkenhead and Belfast is twice the distance of Holyhead and Dublin, so even a high speed craft would take three hours.
This Google Map shows the Ferry Terminal and the Birkenhead waterfront.
Note.
- The Ferry Terminal is indicated by the red arrow at the top of the map.
- There are rows of trucks waiting for the ferries.
- In the South East corner of the map, the terminal of the Mersey Ferry sticks out into the River
- Hamilton Square station is in-line with the Mersey Ferry at the bottom of the map and indicated with the usual red symbol.
- There is a courtesy bus from Hamilton Square station to the Ferry Terminal for Ireland.
There is a fourteen tph service between Hamilton Square and Liverpool Lime Street station.
This route may be possible, but the interchange could be slow and the ferry leg is challenging.
I don’t think the route would be viable unless a much faster ferry is developed. Does the military have some high speed craft under development?
Conclusion
London and Belfast via Liverpool and a ferry is probably a trip for enthusiasts or those needing to spend a day in Liverpool en route.
Other Ferry Routes
There are other ferry routes.
Heysham And Barrow-in-Furness
,These two ports might be possible, but neither has a good rail connection to London and the South of England.
They are both rail connected, but not to the standard of the connections at Holyhead and Liverpool.
Cairnryan
The Cairnryan route could probably be improved to be an excellent low-carbon route to Glasgow and Central Scotland.
Low-Carbon Flight Between The Islands Of Great Britain And Ireland
I think we’ll gradually see a progression to zero-carbon flight over the next few years.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Obviously zero-carbon would be better, but until zero-carbon aircraft are developed, there is always sustainable aviation fuel.
This can be produced from various carbon sources like biowaste or even household rubbish and disposable nappies.
British Airways are involved in a project called Altalto.
- Altalto are building a plant at Immingham to turn household rubbish into sustainable aviation fuel.
- This fuel can be used in jet airliners with very little modification of the aircraft.
I wrote about Altalto in Grant Shapps Announcement On Friday.
Smaller Low-Carbon Airliners
The first low- and zero-carbon airliners to be developed will be smaller with less range, than Boeing 737s and Airbus A 320s. These three are examples of four under development.
- Aura Aero Era – 19 passengers – 500 miles
- Eviation Alice – 9 passengers – 620 miles
- Faradair Aerospace BEHA – 19 passengers – 1150 miles
- Heart Aerospace ES-19 – 19 passengers – 400 km.
I feel that a nineteen seater aircraft with a range of 500 miles will be the first specially designed low- or zero-carbon airliner to be developed.
I believe these aircraft will offer advantages.
- Some routes will only need refuelling at one end.
- Lower noise and pollution.
- Some will have the ability to work from short runways.
- Some will be hybrid electric running on sustainable aviation fuel.
They may enable passenger services to some smaller airports.
Air Routes Between The Islands Of Great Britain And Ireland
These are distances from Belfast City Airport.
- Aberdeen – 228 miles
- Amsterdam – 557 miles
- Birmingham – 226 miles
- Blackpool – 128 miles
- Cardiff – 246 miles
- Edinburgh – 135 miles
- Gatwick – 337 miles
- Glasgow – 103 miles
- Heathrow – 312 miles
- Jersey – 406 miles
- Kirkwall – 320 miles
- Leeds – 177 miles
- Liverpool – 151 miles
- London City – 326 miles
- Manchester – 170 miles
- Newcastle – 168 miles
- Southampton – 315 miles
- Southend – 344 miles
- Stansted – 292 miles
- Sumburgh – 401 miles
Note.
- Some airports on this list do not currently have flights from Belfast City Airport.
- I have included Amsterdam for comparison.
- Distances to Belfast International Airport, which is a few miles to the West of Belfast City Airport are within a few miles of these distances.
It would appear that much of Great Britain is within 500 miles of Belfast City Airport.
These are distances from Dublin Airport.
- Aberdeen – 305 miles
- Amsterdam – 465 miles
- Birmingham – 199 miles
- Blackpool – 133 miles
- Cardiff – 185 miles
- Edinburgh – 208 miles
- Gatwick – 300 miles
- Heathrow – 278 miles
- Jersey – 339 miles
- Kirkwall – 402 miles
- Leeds – 190 miles
- Liverpool – 140 miles
- London City – 296 miles
- Manchester – 163 miles
- Newcastle – 214 miles
- Southampton – 268 miles
- Southend – 319 miles
- Stansted – 315 miles
- Sumburgh – 483 miles
Note.
- Some airports on this list do not currently have flights from Dublin Airport.
- I have included Amsterdam for comparison.
It would appear that much of Great Britain is within 500 miles of Dublin Airport.
I will add a few long routes, that someone might want to fly.
- Cork and Aberdeen – 447 miles
- Derry and Manston – 435 miles
- Manston and Glasgow – 392 miles
- Newquay and Aberdeen – 480 miles
- Norwich and Stornaway – 486 miles.
I doubt there are many possible air services in the UK and Ireland that are longer than 500 miles.
I have a few general thoughts about low- and zero-carbon air services in and around the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
- The likely five hundred mile range of the first generation of low- and zero-carbon airliners fits the size of the these islands well.
- These aircraft seem to have a cruising speed of between 200 and 250 mph, so flight times will not be unduly long.
- Airports would need to have extra facilities to refuel or recharge these airliners.
- Because of their size, there will need to be more flights on busy routes.
- Routes which are less heavily used may well be developed, as low- or zero-carbon could be good for marketing the route.
I suspect they could be ideal for the development of new routes and even new eco-friendly airports.
Conclusion
I have come to the conclusion, that smaller low- or zero-carbon are a good fit for the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
But then Flybe and Loganair have shown that you can make money flying smaller planes around these islands with the right planes, airports, strategy and management.
Hydrogen-Powered Planes From Airbus
Hydrogen-powered zero-carbon aircraft could be the future and Airbus have put down a marker as to the way they are thinking.
Airbus have proposed three different ZEROe designs, which are shown in this infographic.
The turboprop and the turbofan will be the type of designs, that could be used around Great Britain and Ireland.
The ZEROe Turboprop
This is Airbus’s summary of the design for the ZEROe Turboprop.
Two hybrid hydrogen turboprop engines, which drive the six bladed propellers, provide thrust. The liquid hydrogen storage and distribution system is located behind the rear pressure bulkhead.
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the plane.
It certainly is a layout that has been used successfully, by many conventionally-powered aircraft in the past. The De Havilland Canada Dash 8 and ATR 72 are still in production.
I don’t think the turboprop engines, that run on hydrogen will be a problem.
If you look at the Lockheed-Martin C 130J Super Hercules, you will see it is powered by four Rolls-Royce AE 2100D3 turboprop engines, that drive 6-bladed Dowty R391 composite constant-speed fully-feathering reversible-pitch propellers.
These Rolls-Royce engines are a development of an Allison design, but they also form the heart of Rolls-Royce’s 2.5 MW Generator, that I wrote about in Our Sustainability Journey. The generator was developed for use in Airbus’s electric flight research program.
I wouldn’t be surprised to find the following.
- , The propulsion system for this aircraft is under test with hydrogen at Derby and Toulouse.
- Dowty are testing propellers suitable for the aircraft.
- Serious research is ongoing to store enough liquid hydrogen in a small tank that fits the design.
Why develop something new, when Rolls-Royce, Dowty and Lockheed have done all the basic design and testing?
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the front view of the plane.
From clues in the picture, I estimate that the fuselage diameter is around four metres. Which is not surprising, as the Airbus A320 has a height of 4.14 metres and a with of 3.95 metres. But it’s certainly larger than the fuselage of an ATR-72.
So is the ZEROe Turboprop based on a shortened Airbus A 320 fuselage?
- The ATR 72 has a capacity of 70 passengers.
- The ZEROe Turboprop has a capacity of less than a hundred passengers.
- An Airbus A320 has six-abreast seating.
- Could the ZEROe Turboprop have sixteen rows of seats, as there are sixteen windows in front of the wing?
- With the seat pitch of an Airbus A 320, which is 81 centimetres, this means just under thirteen metres for the passengers.
- There could be space for a sizeable hydrogen tank in the rear part of the fuselage.
- The plane might even be able to use the latest A 320 cockpit.
It looks to me, that Airbus have designed a larger ATR 72 based on an A 320 fuselage.
I don’t feel there are any great technical challenges in building this aircraft.
- The engines appear to be conventional and could even have been more-or-less fully developed.
- The fuselage could be a development of an existing design.
- The wings and tail-plane are not large and given the company’s experience with large composite structures, they shouldn’t be too challenging.
- The hydrogen storage and distributing system will have to be designed, but as hydrogen is being used in increasing numbers of applications, I doubt the expertise will be difficult to find.
- The avionics and other important systems could probably be borrowed from other Airbus products.
Given that the much larger and more complicated Airbus A380 was launched in 2000 and first flew in 2005, I think that a prototype of this aircraft could fly around the middle of this decade.
It may seem small at less than a hundred seats, but it does have a range of greater than a 1000 nautical miles or 1150 miles.
Consider.
- It compares closely in passenger capacity, speed and range, with the De Havilland Canada Dash 8/400 and the ATR 72/600.
- The ATR 72 is part-produced by Airbus.
- The aircraft is forty percent slower than an Airbus A 320.
- It looks like it could be designed to have a Short-Takeoff-And Landing (STOL) capability.
I can see the aircraft replacing Dash 8s, ATR 72s and similar aircraft all over the world. There are between 2000 and 3000 operational airliners in this segment.
The ZEROe Turbofan
This is Airbus’s summary of the design.
Two hybrid hydrogen turbofan engines provide thrust. The liquid hydrogen storage and distribution system is located behind the rear pressure bulkhead.
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the plane.
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the front view of the plane.
The aircraft doesn’t look very different different to an Airbus A320 and appears to be fairly conventional. It does appear to have the characteristic tall winglets of the A 320 neo.
I don’t think the turbofan engines, that run on hydrogen will be a problem.
These could be standard turbofan engines modified to run on hydrogen, fuelled from a liquid hydrogen tank behind the rear pressure bulkhead of the fuselage.
If you want to learn more about gas turbine engines and hydrogen, read this article on the General Electric web site, which is entitled The Hydrogen Generation: These Gas Turbines Can Run On The Most Abundant Element In the Universe,
These are my thoughts of the marketing objectives of the ZEROe Turbofan.
- The cruising speed and the number of passengers are surprisingly close, so has this aircraft been designed as an A 320 or Boeing 737 replacement?
- I suspect too, that it has been designed to be used at any airport, that could handle an Airbus A 320 or Boeing 737.
- It would be able to fly point-to-point flights between most pairs of European or North American cities.
It would certainly fit the zero-carbon shorter range airliner market!
In fact it would more than fit the market, it would define it!
I very much believe that Airbus’s proposed zero-carbon hydrogen-powered designs and others like them will start to define aviation on routes of up to perhaps 3000 miles, from perhaps 2035.
- The A 320 neo was launched in December 2010 and entered service in January 2016. That was just five years and a month.
- I suspect that a lot of components like the fuselage sections, cockpit, avionics, wings, landing gear, tailplane and cabin interior could be the same in a A 320 neo and a ZEROe Turbofan.
- Flying surfaces and aerodynamics could be very similar in an A 320 neo and a ZEROe Turbofan
- There could even be commonality between the ZEROe Turboprop and the ZEROe Turbofan, with respect to fuselage sections, cockpit, avionics and cabin interior.
There also must be the possibility, that if a ZEROe Turbofan is a hydrogen-powered A 320 neo, that this would enable the certification process to be simplified.
It might even be possible to remanufacture a A 320 neo into a ZEROe Turbofan. This would surely open up all sorts of marketing strategies.
My project management, flying and engineering knowledge says that if they launched the ZEROe Turbofan this year, it could be in service by the end of the decade on selected routes.
Conclusion
Both the ZEROe Turboprop and ZEROe Turbofan are genuine zero-carbon aircraft, which fit into two well-defined market segments.
I believe that these two aircraft and others like them from perhaps Boeing and Bombardier could be the future of aviation between say 500 and 3000 miles.
With the exception of the provision of hydrogen refuelling at airports, there will be no need for any airport infrastructure.
I also wouldn’t be surprised that the thinking Airbus appear to have applied to creating the ZEROe Turbofan from the successful A 320 neo, could be applied to perhaps create a hydrogen-powered A 350.
I feel that Airbus haven’t fulling disclosed their thinking. But then no company would, when it reinvents itself.
T also think that short-haul air routes will increasing come under pressure.
The green lobby would like airlines to decarbonise.
Governments will legislate that airlines must decarbonise.
The rail industry will increasingly look to attract customers away from the airlines, by providing more competitive times and emphasising their green credentials.
Aircraft manufacturers will come under pressure to deliver zero-carbon airliners as soon as they can.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a prototype ZEROe Turbofan or Boeing’s equivalent fly as early as 2024.
Short Term Solutions
As I said earlier, one solution is to use existing aircraft with Sustainable Aviation Fuel.
But many believe this is greenwash and rather a cop out.
So we must do better!
I don’t believe that the smaller zero- and low-carbon aircraft with a range of up to 500 miles and a capacity of around 19 seats, will be able to handle all the passengers needing to fly between and around the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
- A Boeing 737 or Airbus A 320 has a capacity of around two hundred passengers, which would require ten times the number of flights, aircraft and pilots.
- Airports would need expansion on the airside and the terminals to handle the extra planes.
- Air Traffic Control would need to be expanded to handle the extra planes.
But the smaller planes would be ideal for the thinner secondary routes.
So I tend to think, that the greens will have to lump it, as Sustainable Aviation Fuel will increasingly be the only viable solution.
This will increase the need for Airbus or Boeing to develop a viable A 320 or 737-sized aircraft as soon as possible.
Air Bridges
I said earlier, that I believe using ferries between Ireland and Holyhead and new bi-mode Class 805 trains between London Euston and Holyhead could be a competitor to airlines.
- The ferries would be high speed craft capable of Holyhead and Ireland in around 90-100 minutes.
- The ferries would be zero-carbon.
- The trains would have a sixty percent reduction in carbon emissions compared to current trains on the route.
If we can skim across the water in a zero-carbon high speed craft, are there any reasons we can’t cross the water in a low- or zero-carbon aircraft.
In the next few sub-sections, I’ll suggest a few air bridges.
Glasgow
Glasgow Airport could be an ideal airport for a low or zero-carbon air bridge to Northern Ireland.
- A rail link could eventually be built.
- There is a reasonable amount of traffic.
- The distance to Belfast City Airport is only 103 miles.
As the airport serves islands and other places that could be ideal low- and zero-carbon routes, I could see Glasgow becoming a hub for battery and hydrogen-powered aircraft.
Heathrow
Heathrow must prepare itself for an uncertain future.
It will be some years before a third runway is both needed and will have been constructed.
I believe the following will happen.
- Smaller up to nineteen seat low- or zero-carbon airliners will be in service by 2025.
- From around 2024, Heathrow will get requests to refuel or charge low- or zero-carbon airliners.
- Low- or-zero- carbon A 320-size airliners will be in service by 2030.
- Most ground equipment at Heathrow like tugs and fuel bowsers will be zero-carbon.
If I were Boris or Prime Minister, I would say that Heathrow could have its third runway with the following conditions.
- All aircraft using the third runway must be zero-carbon
- All air-side vehicles must be zero-carbon.
- All vehicles bringing passengers on the last mile to the airport must be zero-carbon.
- All aircraft using the airport that are not zero-carbon must use sustainable aviation fuel.
I suspect that the conditions would be met by a large margin.
When an airport knows it is effectively going to be closed, it will make sure it survives.
Liverpool
Liverpool Airport could be an ideal airport for a low or zero-carbon air bridge to the island of Ireland.
- There is a nearby Liverpool South Parkway station, with frequent services to both the local area and places further away.
- An improved London train service starts in 2022 or 2023.
- There would need to be a people mover between the station and the airport.
- The airport can probably have piped hydrogen from across the Mersey.
- There is already significant traffic to and from the island of Ireland.
- Flight times Between Liverpool and Dublin and Belfast would be under an hour.
I also feel that Liverpool could develop lots of other low- and zero-carbon routes to perhaps Cardiff, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Norwich, Southampton and the Isle of Man.
I could even see Liverpool having a Turn-Up-And-Go shuttle service to Dublin and Belfast, with small zero-carbon planes running every fifteen minutes or so.
Manston
I wouldn’t rule out Manston as a low- and zero-carbon airport for flights to the Benelux countries and Northern France and parts of Germany.
These are a few distances from Manston Airport.
- Amsterdam – 160 miles
- Brussels – 134 miles
- Cologne – 253 miles
- Dusseldorf – 234 miles
- Frankfurt – 328 miles
- Geneva – 414 miles
- Hamburg – 396 miles
- Le Touquet – 59 miles
- Lille – 49 miles
- Luxembourg – 243 miles
- Ostend – 66 miles
- Strasbourg – 339 miles
Manston’s position on the tip of Kent gives it an advantage and I think low- and zero-carbon services could reach Cologne, Frankfurt, Geneva, Hamburg and Strasbourg.
The airport also has other advantages.
- A big electrolyser to produce hydrogen is being built at Herne Bay.
- The area is rich in wind and solar energy.
- I suspect the airspace to the East of the airport isn’t very busy and short hops to the Continent could be easy to slot in.
There is a new station being built at Thanet Parkway, which is on the Ashford and Ramsgate Line, which has regular services to London, including some services on High Speed One.
This Google Map shows the location of the airport and the station.
Note.
- The runway of Manston Airport.
- The Ashford and Ramsgate Line running across the South-East corner of the map.
- The station could be built to the West of the village of Cliffsend, which is indicated by the red arrow.
- I’m sure, a people mover or a zero-carbon bus could be built to connect the station and the airport.
There would need to be improvements in the frequency of services to and from London, but I’m sure Manston Airport could become an ideal airport for low- and zero-carbon aircraft serving the near Continent.
Southampton
Southampton Airport could be the ideal design for an airport to serve an air bridge.
- The Southampton Airport Parkway station is connected to the terminal.
- The station has numerous rail services, including a fast service to and from London.
- The airport is expanding and could make sure all works are compatible with a low- and zero-carbon future.
Southampton is not ideally placed for services to Ireland, but with low- and zero-carbon aircraft it could be ideal for running services to the Channel Islands and Western France.
Other Airports
I suspect other airports will go the low- and zero-carbon route.
Conclusion
I started this post, with the intention of writing about writing about low- and zero-carbon transport between the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
But it has grown.
I have now come to the conclusion that there are several low- and zero-carbon routes that could be developed.
The most promising would appear to be.
- London Euston and Belfast by new Class 805 train to Holyhead and then zero-carbon high speed ferry.
- London Euston and Dublin by new Class 805 train to Holyhead and then zero-carbon high speed ferry.
- Glasgow and Belfast by train to Cairnryan and then zero-carbon high speed ferry.
- Point-to-point air routes using new small nineteen seat low- or zero-carbon airliners with a range of 500 miles.
- London Euston and Belfast by new Class 807 train to Liverpool Airport and then smaller low- or zero-carbon airliner.
- London Euston and Dublin by new Class 807 train to Liverpool Airport and then and then smaller low- or zero-carbon airliner.
- Other air bridges will develop.
But I am fairly certain by the end of the decade, there will be A320-size airlines powered by hydrogen taking us to Ireland and Western Europe.
I believe that the survival and ultimate prospering of Airbus and Boeing depends on the development of a range of zero-carbon airliners.
For this reason alone, they will succeed.
Shooter Urges Caution On Hydrogen Hubris
The title of this post is the same as that of an article in the January 2021 Edition of Modern Railways.
This is the first paragraph.
Vivarail Chairman Adrian Shooter has urges caution about the widespread enthusiasm for hydrogen technology. In his keynote speech to the Golden Spanner Awards on 27 November, Mr. Shooter said the process to create ‘green hydrogen’ by electrolysis is ‘a wasteful use of electricity’ and was skeptical about using electricity to create hydrogen to then use a fuel cell to power a train, rather than charging batteries to power a train. ‘What you will discover is that a hydrogen train uses 3.5 times as much electricity because of inefficiencies in the electrolysis process and also in the fuel cells’ said Mr. Shooter. He also noted the energy density of hydrogen at 350 bar is only one-tenth of a similar quantity of diesel fuel, severely limiting the range of a hydrogen-powered train between refuelling.
Mr. Shooter then made the following points.
- The complexity of delivering hydrogen to the railway depots.
- The shorter range available from the amount of hydrogen that can be stored on a train compared to the range of a diesel train.
- He points out limitations with the design of the Alstom Breeze train.
This is the last paragraph.
Whilst this may have seemed like a challenge designed purely to promote the battery alternatives that Vivarail is developing, and which he believes to be more efficient, Mr. Shooter explained: ‘I think that hydrogen fuel cell trains could work in this country, but people just need to remember that there are downsides. I’m sure we’ll see some, and in fact we should because competition improves the breed.’
i think Mr. Shooter may have made several good points.
These are my thoughts.
Creating Green Hydrogen
I haven’t done an analysis of the costs of creating green hydrogen from electrolysis, but I have a feeling, that electrolysis won’t be the only way to create large amounts of carbon-free hydrogen, in a few years.
These methods are currently available or under development or construction.
- The hydrogen tram-buses in Pau have a personal electrolyser, that provides hydrogen at 350 bar.
- London’s hydrogen buses will be provided with hydrogen from an electrolyser at Herne Bay by truck. Will the trucks be hydrogen-powered?
Some industrial processes like the Castner-Kellner process create hydrogen as a by-product.
In Shell Process To Make Blue Hydrogen Production Affordable, I describe the Shell Blue Hydrogen Process, which appears to be a way of making massive amounts of carbon-free hydrogen for processes like steel-making and cement production. Surely some could be piped or transported by truck to the rail depot.
In ITM Power and Ørsted: Wind Turbine Electrolyser Integration, I describe how ITM Power and Ørsted plan to create the hydrogen off shore and bring it by pipeline to the shore.
Note.
- The last two methods could offer savings in the cost of production of carbon-free hydrogen.
- Surely, the delivery trucks if used, must be hydrogen-powered.
- The Shell Blue Hydrogen Process uses natural gas as a feedstock and converts it to hydrogen using a newly-developed catalyst. The carbon-dioxide is captured and used or stored.
- If the local gas network has been converted to hydrogen, the hydrogen can be delivered to the depot or filling station through that gas network.
I very much feel that affordable hydrogen can be supplied to bus, train, tram or transport depot. For remote or difficult locations. personal electrolysers, powered by renewable electricity, can be used, as at Pau.
Hydrogen Storage On Trains
Liquid hydrogen could be the answer and Airbus are developing methods of storing large quantities on aircraft.
In What Size Of Hydrogen Tank Will Be Needed On A ZEROe Turbofan?, I calculated how much liquid hydrogen would be needed for this ZEROe Turbofan.
I calculate that to carry the equivalent amount of fuel to an Airbus A320neo would need a liquid hydrogen tank with a near 100 cubic metre capacity. This sized tank would fit in the rear fuselage.
I feel that in a few years, a hydrogen train will be able to carry enough liquid hydrogen in a fuel tank, but the fuel tank will be large.
In The Mathematics Of A Hydrogen-Powered Freight Locomotive, I calculated how much liquid hydrogen would be needed to provide the same amount of energy as that carried in a full diesel tank on a Class 68 locomotive.
The locomotive would need 19,147 litres or 19.15 cubic metres of liquid hydrogen, which could be contained in a cylindrical tank with a diameter of 2 metres and a length of 6 metres.
Hydrogen Locomotives Or Multiple Units?
We have only seen first generation hydrogen trains so far.
This picture shows the Alstom Coradia iLint, which is a conversion of a Coradia Lint.
It is a so-so train and works reasonably well, but the design means there is a lot of transmission noise.
This is a visualisation of an Alstom Breeze or Class 600 train.
Note that the front half of the first car of the train, is taken up with a large hydrogen tank. It will be the same at the other end of the train.
As Mr. Shooter said, Alstom are converting a three-car train into a two-car train. Not all conversions live up to the hype of their proposers.
I would hope that the next generation of a hydrogen train designed from scratch, will be a better design.
I haven’t done any calculations, but I wonder if a lighter weight vehicle may be better.
Hydrogen Locomotives
I do wonder, if hydrogen locomotives are a better bet and easier to design!
- There is a great need all over the world for zero-carbon locomotives to haul freight trains.
- Powerful small gas-turbine engines, that can run on liquid hydrogen are becoming available.
- Rolls-Royce have developed a 2.5 MW gas-turbine generator, that is the size of a beer-keg.
In The Mathematics Of A Hydrogen-Powered Freight Locomotive, I wondered if the Rolls-Royce generator could power a locomotive, the size of a Class 68 locomotive.
This was my conclusion.
I feel that there are several routes to a hydrogen-powered railway locomotive and all the components could be fitted into the body of a diesel locomotive the size of a Class 68 locomotive.
Consider.
- Decarbonising railway locomotives and ships could be a large market.
- It offers the opportunities of substantial carbon reductions.
- The small size of the Rolls-Royce 2.5 MW generator must offer advantages.
- Some current diesel-electric locomotives might be convertible to hydrogen power.
I very much feel that companies like Rolls-Royce and Cummins (and Caterpillar!), will move in and attempt to claim this lucrative worldwide market.
In the UK, it might be possible to convert some existing locomotives to zero-carbon, using either liquid hydrogen, biodiesel or aviation biofuel.
Perhaps, hydrogen locomotives could replace Chiltern Railways eight Class 68 locomotives.
- A refuelling strategy would need to be developed.
- Emissions and noise, would be reduced in Marylebone and Birmingham Moor Street stations.
- The rakes of carriages would not need any modifications to use existing stations.
It could be a way to decarbonise Chiltern Railways without full electrification.
It looks to me that a hydrogen-powered locomotive has several advantages over a hydrogen-powered multiple unit.
- It can carry more fuel.
- It can be as powerful as required.
- Locomotives could work in pairs for more power.
- It is probably easier to accommodate the hydrogen tank.
- Passenger capacity can be increased, if required by adding more coaches.
It should also be noted that both hydrogen locomotives and multiple units can build heavily on technology being developed for zero-carbon aviation.
The Upward Curve Of Battery Power
Sparking A Revolution is the title an article in Issue 898 of Rail Magazine, which is mainly an interview with Andrew Barr of Hitachi Rail.
The article contains a box, called Costs And Power, where this is said.
The costs of batteries are expected to halve in the next years, before dropping further again by 2030.
Hitachi cites research by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) which expects costs to fall from £135/kWh at the pack level today to £67/kWh in 2030 and £47/kWh in 3030.
United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) are predicting that battery energy density will double in the next 15 years, from 700 Wh/l to 1400 Wh/l in 2-35, while power density (fast charging) is likely to increase four times in the same period from 3 kW/kg to 12 kW/kg in 2035.
These are impressive improvements that can only increase the performance and reduce the cost of batteries in all applications.
Hitachi’s Regional Battery Train
This infographic gives the specification of Hitachi Regional Battery Train, which they are creating in partnership with Hyperdrive Innovation.
Note that Hitachi are promising a battery life of 8-10 years.
Financing Batteries
This paragraph is from this page on BuyaCar, which is entitled Electric Car Battery Leasing: Should I Lease Or Buy The Batteries?
When you finance or buy a petrol or diesel car it’s pretty simple; the car will be fitted with an engine. However, with some electric cars you have the choice to finance or buy the whole car, or to pay for the car and lease the batteries separately.
I suspect that battery train manufacturers, will offer similar finance models for their products.
This paragraph is from this page on the Hyperdrive Innovation web site.
With a standardised design, our modular product range provides a flexible and scalable battery energy storage solution. Combining a high-performance lithium-ion NMC battery pack with a built in Battery Management System (BMS) our intelligent systems are designed for rapid deployment and volume manufacture, supplying you with class leading energy density and performance.
I can envisage that as a battery train ages, every few years or so, the batteries will get bigger electrically, but still be the same physical size, due to the improvements in battery technology, design and manufacture.
I have been involved in the finance industry both as a part-owner of a small finance company and as a modeller of the dynamics of their lending. It looks to me, that train batteries could be a very suitable asset for financing by a fund. But given the success of energy storage funds like Gore Street and Gresham House, this is not surprising.
I can envisage that battery electric trains will be very operator friendly, as they are likely to get better with age and they will be very finance-friendly.
Charging Battery Trains
I must say something about the charging of battery trains.
Battery trains will need to be charged and various methods are emerging.
Using Existing Electrification
This will probably be one of the most common methods used, as many battery electric services will be run on partly on electrified routes.
Take a typical route for a battery electric train like London Paddington and Oxford.
- The route is electrified between London Paddington and Didcot Junction.
- There is no electrification on the 10.4 miles of track between Didcot Junction and Oxford.
If a full battery on the train has sufficient charge to take the train from Didcot Junction to Oxford and back, charging on the main line between London Paddington and Didcot Junction, will be all that will be needed to run the service.
I would expect that in the UK, we’ll be seeing battery trains using both 25 KVAC overhead and 750 VDC third rail electrification.
Short Lengths Of New Strategic Electrification
I think that Great Western Railway would like to run either of Hitachi’s two proposed battery electric trains to Swansea.
As there is 45.7 miles pf track without .electrification, some form of charging in Swansea station, will probably be necessary.
The easiest way would probably be to electrify Swansea station and perhaps for a short distance to the North.
This Google Map shows Swansea station and the railway leading North.
Note.
- There is a Hitachi Rail Depot at the Northern edge of the map.
- Swansea station is in South-West corner of the map.
- Swansea station has four platforms.
Swansea station would probably make an excellent battery train hub, as trains typically spend enough time in the station to fully charge the batteries before continuing.
There are other tracks and stations of the UK, that I would electrify to enable the running of battery electric trains.
- Leeds and York, which would enable carbon-free London and Edinburgh services via Leeds and help TransPennine services. This is partially underway.
- Leicester and East Midlands Parkway and Clay Cross North Junction and Sheffield – These two sections would enable EMR InterCity services to go battery electric.
- Sheffield and Leeds via Meadowhall, Barnsley Dearne Valley and the Wakefield Line, which would enable four trains per hour (tph) between Sheffield and Leeds and an extension of EMR InterCity services to Leeds.
- Hull and Brough, would enable battery electric services to Hull and Beverley.
- Scarborough and Seamer, would enable electric services services to Scarborough and between Hull and Scarborough.
- Middlesbrough and Redcar, would enable electric services services to Teesside.
- Crewe and Chester and around Llandudno Junction station – These two sections would enable Avanti West Coast service to Holyhead to go battery electric.
- Shrewsbury station – This could become a battery train hub, as I talked about for Swansea.
- Taunton and Exeter and around Penzance, Plymouth and Westbury stations – These three sections would enable Great Western Railway to cut a substantial amount of carbon emissions.
- Exeter, Yeovil Junction and Salisbury stations. – Electrifying these three stations would enable South Western Railway to run between London and Exeter using Hitachi Regional Battery Trains, as I wrote in Bi-Modes Offered To Solve Waterloo-Exeter Constraints.
We will also need fast chargers for intermediate stations, so that a train can charge the batteries on a long route.
I know of two fast chargers under development.
- Opbrid at Furrer + Frey
- Vivarail’s Fast Charge, which I wrote about in Vivarail’s Plans For Zero-Emission Trains.
I believe it should be possible to battery-electrify a route by doing the following.
- Add short lengths of electrification and fast charging systems as required.
- Improve the track, so that trains can use their full performance.
- Add ERTMS signalling.
- Add some suitable trains.
Note.
- I feel ERTMS signalling with a degree of automatic train control could be used with automatic charging systems, to make station stops more efficient.
- In my view, there is no point in installing better modern trains, unless the track is up to their performance.