Could London And Central Scotland Air Passengers Be Persuaded To Use The Trains?
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Edinburgh?
Wikipedia gives these figures for 2024 for passengers from Edinburgh to London
- London City – 334,873
- London Gatwick – 476,152
- London Heathrow – 1,148,634
- London Luton – 338, 729
- London Stansted – 693,953
This gives a total of 2,992,341.
As Wikipedia doesn’t give complete figures for from London to Edinburgh, for the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume they are the same.
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Glasgow?
Wikipedia gives these figures for 2024 for passengers from Glasgow to London
- London City – 208,405
- London Gatwick – 456,002
- London Heathrow – 954,027
- London Luton – 255,095
- London Stansted – 225,110
This gives a total of 2,098,639.
As Wikipedia doesn’t give complete figures for from London to Glasgow, for the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume they are the same.
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
Adding the two figures gives 5,090,980. in both directions.
Which is an average of 97,903 per week or 13,948 per day.
How Many Train Seats Run Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
These figures are for Friday the 1st of August.
- Aventi West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 5 x 9-car Class 390 train – 2,345 seats
- Aventi West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 16 x 11-car Class 390 train – 6,677 seats
- LNER – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh – 26 x 9-car Class 801 train – 15,886 seats
- Lumo – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh – 5 x 5-car Class 803 train – 2,010 seats
Note.
- All services are all-electric.
- All services are fairly new or have recently been refurbished,
This gives a total of 26,918 train seats.
Adding Lumo’s Service To Glasgow
In Lumo Will Extend Its King’s Cross And Edinburgh Service To Glasgow, I suggested that the Glasgow service would be run as follows from December 2025.
- Two existing Lumo services will leave London as pairs of five-car trains.
- The pairs will split at Edinburgh.
- The leading train will go on to Glasgow Queen Street calling at Edinburgh Haymarket and Falkirk High stations.
- The trailing train will return to London King’s Cross.
- At the end of the day, the two trains in Glasgow will do a fast run back to London King’s Cross as a pair of 5-car trains.
This will add 804 seats per day between London and Glasgow Queen Street in both directions.
The daily total would now total 27,722 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
Adding Lumo’s Service To Stirling
In Lumo To Expand Scotland’s Rail Network With New London-Stirling Rail Route From Spring 2026, I talk about Lumo’s new service to Stirling.
- There will be five trains per day (tpd) in each direction.
- Lumo’s new route will link London Euston directly to Stirling, also calling at Milton Keynes, Nuneaton, Crewe, Preston, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet (serving Coatbridge), Greenfaulds (serving Cumbernauld) and Larbert.
- The service will use 6-car Class 222 trains, which in the linked post, I estimate will have a similar one-class capacity to the Class 803 trains between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh.
- If the capacity of the two train types is similar, this should give operational advantages and allow some more Class 803 trains to run the Euston and Stirling route.
This second Scottish route will add 2010 train seats per day between London Euston and Stirling in both directions.
The daily total would now total 29,732 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
Could More Capacity Be Added Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
I believe some of the Lumo services between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh could be doubled up to a pair of trains.
There would have to be no platform length issues at London King’s Cross, Stevenage, Newcastle and Morpeth stations.
If three trains could be doubled up, that would add 1,206 train seats per day between London and Edinburgh in both directions.
The daily total would now total 30,938 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
I also suspect, that some of the Stirling services could be doubled up.
Connectivity Of England’s Northern Airports To London And Central Scotland
Birmingham Airport
Consider.
- There are easyJet flights to Edinburgh and Glasgow
- There are 1.5 trains per hour (tph) between Birmingham New Street and Edinburgh.
- There are 6 tpd between Birmingham New Street and Glasgow.
You would make your choice and pay the money.
East Midlands Airport
There are no flights or trains to Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Leeds Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Leeds and Edinburgh
- There is one tpd between Leeds and Glasgow
Could Leeds and Glasgow get better connectivity?
Liverpool Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Liverpool Lime Street and Edinburgh
- There is three tpd between Liverpool Lime Street and Glasgow
The Liverpool area is well connected to Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston stations on the West Coast Main Line for alternative services to Glasgow.
Manchester Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Manchester Airport and Scotland via Manchester Piccadilly and Manchester Oxford Road, which alternates between Edinburgh and Glasgow.
The Manchester area is well connected to Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston stations on the West Coast Main Line for alternative services to Glasgow.
Omio gives this summary of flights between Heathrow and Manchester airports.
Flights from Manchester Airport to London Heathrow Airport depart on average 8 times per day, taking around 1h 6m. Cheap flight tickets for this journey start at £63 but you can travel from only £16 by coach.
Wrightbus and others will be producing mouse-quiet hydrogen-powered coaches in a couple of years. I suspect these will give short flights a good kicking.
Newcastle Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is three tph between Newcastle and Edinburgh with an additional 5 tpd from Lumo.
- There is two tpd between Newcastle and Glasgow.
- There is one tpd between Newcastle and Stirling.
- From December 2025, Lumo will add two tpd from Newcastle to Glasgow and one tpd from Glasgow to Newcastle.
- In Lumo Will Extend Its King’s Cross And Edinburgh Service To Glasgow, I stated that I believe that Lumo’s Glasgow to Newcastle service will be a late evening ten-car train, so travellers can have a long day in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Newcastle and still return to London.
Lumo would appear to fill in the gap between Newcastle and Glasgow.
Google AI gives this summary of flights between Heathrow and Newcastle airports.
There are usually 5-6 direct flights per day between Newcastle and Heathrow airports. These flights are operated by British Airways. The average flight time is around 1 hour and 10 minutes.
Note.
- In 2024, 497, 469 passengers flew between between Heathrow and Newcastle airports, which is an average of 681 passengers in each direction every day.
- This was an increase of 13.6 % on 2023.
- From December Lumo will be running extra London King’s Cross and Newcastle services, with each train having 402 seats.
- The improvements in rail services in and around Newcastle in recent months, will surely bring more passengers to use trains from Newcastle station.
- Will Lumo also target adverts at airline passengers?
London and Newcastle could be another route for mouse-quiet hydrogen-powered coaches.
Conclusion
These numbers summarise my calculations.
- Currently an average of 13,948 passengers per day fly between London and Central Scotland.
- Currently, there are 26,918 train seats available per day between London and Central Scotland.
- In December 2025, Lumo will add another 804 low-cost train seats between London King’s Cross and Glasgow Queen Street.
- In Spring 2026, Lumo will add 2010 low-cost train seats between London Euston and Stirling.
- From Spring 2026, there will be 29,732 train seats available per day between London and Central Scotland.
- This represents a 10 % increase of seats on the trains between London and Central Scotland.
How many passengers, who normally fly, will switch to using the train?
- Lumo may only offer one class, but you get a trolley and can order food from M & S and others to be delivered to your seat.
- Both LNER and Lumo accept dogs. I don’t know about Avanti.
- All services will be all-electric, when Lumo gets its new electric trains for Stirling, in a few years.
- It looks to me like Lumo could be offering a late train back to London from Edinburgh and Glasgow.
- Digital signalling on the East Coast Main Line should speed up services.
If Lumo to Glasgow and Stirling works out, it could also cut the total carbon footprint of travel between London and Central Scotland.
Lumo To Expand Scotland’s Rail Network With New London-Stirling Rail Route From Spring 2026
The title of this post is the same as this news item from Lumo.
These three bullet points act as sub-headings.
- Lumo has secured a new route connecting Stirling with London Euston, launching as early as Spring 2026, offering passengers five daily affordable services.
- The announcement comes as Lumo hosted a special event at Holyrood attended by MSPs and Scotland’s MPs, spotlighting Lumo’s contribution to enhancing rail connectivity for previously underserved communities in Scotland.
- The route will provide first-ever direct services to London for Whifflet, Greenfaulds, and Larbert, further boosting economic opportunities and travel options in Scotland.
This first paragraph adds some more details.
Lumo, the UK’s leading Open Access rail operator, today announced it has secured five Class 222 six-car trains for its forthcoming route between London Euston and Stirling, beginning as early as Spring 2026. This expansion aims to enhance travel choice and connectivity for passengers along the central belt of Scotland both to England and to Stirling, offering five daily services with the operator renowned for affordability and efficiency.
I have some thoughts.
What Is The Complete Route?
This is the complete route.
Lumo’s new route will link London Euston directly to Stirling, also calling at Milton Keynes, Nuneaton, Crewe, Preston, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet (serving Coatbridge), Greenfaulds (serving Cumbernauld) and Larbert.
It is fully-electrified and can support 125 mph running most, if not all, of the way.
There Are No Six-Car Class 222 Trains
Consider.
- Currently, five-car Class 222 trains seat 192 in Standard Class and 50 in First Class.
- Currently, seven-car Class 222 trains seat 236 in Standard Class and 106 in First Class.
- Lumo’s five-car Class 803 trains set 402 in Standard Class.
- Lumo’s trains have no First Class.
I estimate that a six-car Class 222 train, with all Standard Class seating would accommodate not far off the 402 seats of one of Lumo’s bog-standard Class 803 trains.
Having identical numbers of passengers on the two fleets, must surely bring operational advantages.
- A six-car Class 222 train could replace a five-car Class 803 train or vice-versa, if Lumo were short of trains.
- Class 222 trains are able to take the Great Northern and Great Eastern Joint Line and other diversions during times of engineering works.
- The Class 222 trains would be able to run between Euston and Rochdale.
- The Class 222 trains might be useful for developing services on routes without electrification.
In the future, a six-car Class 222 train could be directly replaced in Lumo’s fleet by a five-car battery-electric Class 803 train.
The Class 222 Trains Are Diesel-Powered
All the noise and vibration could be a problem, but if I am right about the interchangeability of the two fleets, then this gives some advantages too.
- Earlier delivery of Class 222 trains, than new Class 803 trains, may enable Lumo to start services between Euston and Stirling at an earlier date.
- Earlier delivery of Class 222 trains, may allow selective withdrawal of Class 803 trains for updating.
- A mixed fleet of diesel and electric trains may be able to run more services during engineering works, by using diversion routes without electrification.
- Short route extensions to Dundee or Perth could be tried to assess demand.
There could be some good reasons to get the Class 222 trains into service sooner rather than later.
Will The Diesel Class 222 Trains Be Replaced By Battery-Electric Class 803 Trains?
Although London And Edinburgh By Lumo Using the Joint Line Diversion, was also about Lumo’s proposed Euston and Rochdale service, it was mainly about using battery power to use the Great Northern and Great Eastern Joint Line to avoid engineering works or wiring problems.
Both train types have the following abilities.
- Ability to go between Stirling and Euston via the West Coast Main Line.
- Ability to go between Rochdale and Euston via the West Coast Main Line.
- Ability to go between Stirling and King’s Cross via the East Coast Main Line.
- Ability to go between Edinburgh and King’s Cross via the East Coast Main Line.
- Ability to handle the Great Northern and Great Eastern Joint Line on their own power.
- Ability to handle diversions of up to around a hundred miles on their own power.
As Lumo’s new battery-electric Class 803 trains are delivered, Lumo’s two Anglo-Scottish routes and the one to Rochdale can go all-electric.
Can Lumo Trains Run As Pairs?
I’ve not seen or heard if Lumo have done this, but as I wrote in Ten-Car Hull Trains, I’ve seen Lumo’s sister company Hull Trains run ten-car trains.
As Wikipedia says that both Class 222 and Class 803 trains can run in multiple formations with other trains from the same class, I have to assume it is possible, providing the Fat Controller agrees to the practice.
Has Heidi Alexander Really Said Yes?
After the launch at Holyrood, in front of MSPs and Scottish MPs, it would now be difficult to say No!
But then there’s a by-election to the Scottish Parliament in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse on Thursday.
Is Lumo’s new route an easy drive from the constituency? A Scot, who has worked in the area said Yes!
Conclusion
I like FirstGroup’s plan to create a diesel fleet to introduce new services and back up their current ones, until the new battery-electric Class 803 trains are delivered.
The Anonymous Widower 