The Scottish Independence Referendum
The phone-in on BBC Radio 5 this morning, was about the possible Scottish Independence Referendum, which is being debated by David Cameron’s cabinet today.
I should say, that I don’t care much, whether Scotland is independent from the UK or not. after all, there would be one big advantage to England if Scotland were to be independent.
It would mean that the result of UK General Elections would not be skewed because of the overwhelmingly left-facing vote north of the border. It would also mean that policies for England would not be decided in a Parliament, where many of the members had no electoral connection to England, but still voted on English law. Tam Dalyell posed this as the West Lothian question and summed it up as follows.
For how long will English constituencies and English Honourable members tolerate … at least 119 Honourable Members from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland exercising an important, and probably often decisive, effect on English politics while they themselves have no say in the same matters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland?
I agree with this and it is a running sore to many English voters. Interestingly, to sort the West Lothian Question doesn’t need Scottish independence, but just a simple change to UK law, which would say that on matters of English law, only English MPs could vote. But would the Labour Party give up this right?
There might well be other advantages to England and I won’t debate them here, but I think it is in the interest of the whole of the UK, that the problem is settled one way or another before the end of the current UK Parliament.
Some of the biggest problems do not concern either the UK or the Scottish governments.
Suppose you are the CEO of an airline with a service to the London area, that is thinking of serving a second airport in the north of the UK. Obviously, your choice is between Manchester, Edinburgh and Glasgow. But which? Uncertainty about the status of Scotland in the UK doesn’t help your decision. From my experience of the trains between Manchester and Scotland, it would appear that Manchester is getting the business, as opposed to Glasgow or Edinburgh. Note these points too.
- In 2010, Manchester was used by slightly more passengers than Glasgow and Edinburgh combined.
- The Scottish airports are not connected directly to the rail network. Manchester is and is due to get extra connections in the next few years.
- All airports have direct air links to either Gatwick, Heathrow or Stansted.
If Scotland’s status in the UK were to be sorted long-term, it would be a much easier decision.
There are a lot of other business decisions that are suffering from the same uncertaincy.
I actually think that the biggest problem with any Scottish referendum, is that no matter how it is written, it would not give a clear-cut result, that would satisfy everybody.
There could be three possible boxes on the ballot paper for a referendum.
- Complete independence for Scotland.
- More devolution for Scotland.
- Carry on as we are now.
The Scottish Nationalists would be very happy with one and possibly two. But as time progressed, I suspect that if they didn’t get complete independence, they’d come back again and again until they got the result they wanted. The uncertainty would be bad for Scotland and not very good for the UK. So in my view David Cameron is right to insist on an early binding referendum to put the issue to bed, once and for all. It would appear that the Scottish Nationalists want the referendum in 2014, as it’s the seven hundredth anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn. I actually think that would be a recipe for a lot of trouble, that no-one wants.
The English would also like to bury the argument and most would be happy if Scotland became independent, as it would mean no Scottish interference in matters purely of interest to the English. Remember too, that the last two Scottish Prime Ministers of the UK, are not held in much affection in England. I think too, that the English would also be happy to go along with a very definite vote for the status quo, providing that the West Lothian Question was settled and there was no chance of another referendum for at least fifteen years or so.
I feel a bit sorry for the Welsh here, as they were a bit short-changed on devolution by Tony Blair. I do have this feeling though, that Wales will do well economically in the next few years, especially if they get the infrastructure a lot better.
Northern Ireland is a totally different matter and I’ve always believed that it should be united with the south. But that will probably not happen in my lifetime.
To return to the Scottish Referendum, would any political party get a result they want?
Scotland is a much more divided country than England, although both have a lot of regional pride. Edinburgh and Glasgow rarely agree and I’ve read reports in the past, about the islands not wanting independence at all, except from the rest of Scotland.
So it will be very difficult for any party to marshall the voters.
In fact, I think that in a three choice referendum, the Scots are more likely to vote strongly for maintaining the status quo.
Virgin Trains Glasgow Services
Inevitably in the last couple of weeks, I’ve ended up on some of Virgin Trains services that have started at or are going to Glasgow. If I take Day 21, where I went from London to Milton Keynes and then from Crewe to Lancaster for Morecambe, before going from Lancaster to Carlisle, all on trains going to Glasgow. The early train had plenty of space, although, a lot of people use it to commute to Milton Keynes, but the other two were very overcrowded. I didn’t have a seat reservation on either leg and although I got a seat from Crewe to Preston, it was stand up for the rest of the way.
It almost seems that there is a division, where trains are bearable south of Warrington, Wigan or Preston, but often unbearable to the north. More capacity is urgently needed, both on the Pendolino and Super Voyager services. I think the problem is compounded, by the fact, that the trains get used by locals, travelling just one or two stops. I met one guy commuting from Lancaster to Carlisle.
There are a few TransPennine services from Manchester Airport to Glasgow that use the route, but they are short 100 mph trains, which at best add a few seats to the route and at worst make it more congested. I experienced one going south and detailed it in this post. Perhaps, there is a case for a couple of High Speed Diesel Trains to replace the small Class 185‘s on this route until the line is fully-electrified and electric multiple units arrive.
It has been announced that extra Pendolino trains will be available soon, but some seem to have been put into store, rather than service. Surely, if the sums added up four years ago, and we’ve had an increase in passengers since then, that they are better earning revenue rather than getting rusty.
Remember that my particular expertise is resource scheduling. I just think, that someone’s objective function is not comprehensive enough or there are some dark politics involved. If nothing, adding extra seats to the Glasgow services might encourage people to use them rather than flying, which would reduce our carbon footprint.
Given the overcrowding, something should be done as soon as possible.
At present all I can advise, is make sure you have a seat reservation when you travel anywhere between Warrington and Glasgow.
But the real problems of the West Coast Main Line are historic, as Wikipedia states.
Because of opposition by landowners along the route, in places some railway lines were built so that they avoided large estates and rural towns, and to reduce construction costs the railways followed natural contours, resulting in many curves and bends. The WCML also passes through some hilly areas, such as the Chilterns (Tring cutting), the Watford Gap and Northampton uplands followed by the Trent Valley, the mountains of Cumbria with a summit at Shap, and Beattock Summit in southern Lanarkshire. This legacy of gradients and curves, and the fact that it was not originally conceived as a single trunk route, means the WCML was never ideal as a long-distance main line, with lower maximum speeds than the East Coast Main Line (ECML) route, the other major main line from London to Scotland.
And this still means that for long distances north of Crewe, that only a double track is possible. So this limits the number of paths available, which means that running say a slower connecting service from Warrington to Carlisle, is just not on, even though it would remove the one or two station travellers.
And then you have the freight trains!
So perhaps the problem is not actually about trains, but is more about tracks and paths. The only way then, to get more through, would be to increase the size of the trains from nine to eleven coaches, for which many of the carriages have been built and are in store.
But at some point, the West Coast Main Line will have to have extra tracks, especially if more and more freight trains need to run to and from Scotland from the south. As I believe has been shown around Ipswich, the more freight trains you can run, the less trucks use the roads and you get greater capacity for cars and coaches.
I add the latter, as there is now a London to Glasgow coach service with sleeping berths.
I Thought He’d Given Up
I thought we’d heard the last of the Naked Rambler, but today he was arrested again outside Perth Prison according to the BBC. I suppose I hadn’t heard of him lately, as he would appear to have spent the last ten years in jail.
What I find strange is that in England, the authorities don’t seem to mind his antics, but it is bit different north of the border?
Surely, we have better things to do with taxpayers money, than use it to lock this idiot up! At £37,500 a year that is quite a sum.
Incidentally, I once had a Scot dressed in his kilt at a dinner party, prove to everybody that he was a real Scot. Did we complain? Of course not, but we never went near the hospital, where he worked.
The Future of Very Long Distance Trains in the UK
We may be a small island, but it is possible to do some of the longer train journeys in Europe in the UK, where you don’t have to change trains. The longest trip I did in Europe was Nice to Lille.
We have several major long distance routes starting or finishing in London. Some include.
- London (Kings Cross) to Inverness via Edinburgh
- London (Kings Cross) to Aberdeen via Edinburgh
- London (Euston) to Holyhead
- London (Paddington) to Fishguard
- London (Paddington) to Penzance
I should note that the longest route is actually Penzance to Aberdeen.
At present all of the routes use IC125s or other diesel trains, but for a lot of the journey some will be under wires used by high speed electric trains. It is probably for this reason that when civil servants specified the replacement for the incomparable IC125, they came up with the idea of a bi-mode train, that was electric, but hauled a diesel around for where there was no power supply. Just as with people obesity is not to be tolerated as it wastes fuel, causes more carbon dioxide to be emitted and probably causes all sorts of track problems because of the weight. As an engineer, I just don’t like it! But that’s my prejudice and what do I know about trains?
However, Ian Walmsley, a man who does know about trains, has proposed in the August edition of Modern Railways, that the ageing Class 90 electric locomotives and Mark 3 coaches on the London to Norwich line be replaced with Bombasrdier TRAXX electric locomotives, refurbished and modern styled Mark 3 coaches and perhaps a new set of driving van trailers. The article showed some impressive interiors proposed by a company called Dg8.
Would this concept work on say London to Inverness? I’ve travelled the northermost part of this line in the driver’s cab and it is a truly spectacular line, but it is unlikely that it will ever be able to be electrified further than Stirling. But there are diesel versions of TRAXX, so could an engine change be performed before the electricity runs out. If Bombardier has the engineering correct, which I suspect they do, I doubt that an engine change would take more than a few minutes. It would certainly be less hassle for the passengers than a train change.
As you are running engine facing London as trains do on the northern routes out of Kings Cross, there would be no need for any special operating procedures in London, but you would need to provide for perhaps a small amount of track work at the engine changeover. This point would have to be chosen with respect to driver availability, so perhaps on services via Edinburgh, this might be the point. But of course it would be a simple matter for the train company to work out the best place for the changeover.
In his article, Ian proposed new driving van trailers. When I went to Inverness on the IC125, the driver had no access to train services, so he had to disembark to use the toilet. So should the DVTs be provided with various facilities for the driver?
It should also be noted that the current trains on the route have no room for heavy luggage, so could they be used for such items as bicycles, surfboards for Cornwall and large cases.
If these long routes have more than just distance in common; many passengers will want an at-seat meal and many will be leisure passengers who would want to admire the view.
So should in some ways a retrograde step be taken and make sure everyone has a full table and that seats align with windows, just like they originally did when the Mark 3 coaches were built. In some ways all of the routes are premium routes, where many will book well in advance for a holiday or an event, so the extra cost of the trains would probably be affordable.
An idea I thought of was an observation car, but although it might be possible, it might make train operation difficult. But surely someone like Dg8 could come up with a Cafe Bar Car with large windows that sat in the middle of the train.
As the journey length could be up to about nine hours, it would probably need innovative entertainment systems. How about a front and back camera to show views.
I may be talking out of my backside. But as John Lennon said. Imagine!
Scottish Independence! Surely Northern Ireland Needs It!
Yet again, Northern Ireland is rioting and causing mayhem.
If we are giving the Scots and the Welsh a degree of independence, in these times of austerity, shouldn’t we cut Northern Ireland adrift and leave it to its own resources?
I just don’t like seeing bigots burning my taxes as a form of entertainment! Perhaps, they should impose a local income tax!
John Major Talks Sense Again
I told a story yesterday about John Major and today he pops up on the BBC’s web site talking about Scotland and its political relationship with England.
Here’s an extract.
In a rare intervention into politics, former Prime Minister Sir John Major calls for the Scottish Parliament to be given powers to control everything except foreign affairs, defence and the economy.
Sir John warned against the dangers of devolution before the 1997 election. Today he calls for what some call “devo max”.
If you are wondering why the former Tory leader’s dressing in tartan, he explains that in return the English (and, of course, the Conservative Party) would see the end of the hated Barnett formula which gives Scotland more money to spend and a cut in the number of Scottish (usually Labour) MPs.
This may not seem like a live issue today, but it will be in the run-up to the next election. Scotland’s re-elected First Minister Alex Salmond has always believed that the Tories were most likely to give him at least some of what he wanted.
This is how Sir John puts it:
“The present quasi-federalist settlement with Scotland is unsustainable. Each year of devolution has moved Scotland further from England. Scottish ambition is fraying English tolerance. This is a tie that will snap – unless the issue is resolved.
“The union between England and Scotland cannot be maintained by constant aggravation in Scotland and appeasement in London. I believe it is time to confront the argument head on.
Everybody should read the full article, as it talks a lot of sense.
I particularly liked this comment by a reader on the report.
Wow!
Major speech by a major politician
How on earth, gold help us, did we ever end up with New Labour
So let’s hope the British Parliament does the sane thing in the next few weeks and makes sure that they control the country and not the owners of a few newspapers.
At least none of these proprietors are no Berlusconi!
Travelling With a Horse
Well not really, as the pony wasn’t allowed on the train.
I do remember a news story many years ago, where someone took a billy goat to a Scottish Island, by train from London. It travelled as a dog.
Scottish Devolution
They are debating this old chestnut on Radio 5 Live at the moment.
Apparently there has been a poll in The Sun, which says that those in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are more in favour of devolution than the Scots.
If they do leave the Union, then can they please take the Royal Bank of UK Taxpayers and its debts with them. And they can keep that banker, Fred the Shred too!
The question has to be asked as to whether the EU would admit Scotland. After all Spain has regions that would like independence and may vote against, as it doesn’t want Spain to split.
Scot Nats Sink Prudence’s Aircraft Carriers
It looks like Prudence’s jobs bribe to Scotland of the manufacture of two unnecessary aircraft carriers has been sunk by the performance of the SNP in the elections yesterday. Labour voters have deserted the party in droves.
I watched the most unusual double act this morning on the television when Alex Salmond of the SNP and Annabel Goldie of the Scottish Conservatives had a forthright discussion on their cooperation in the future.
Scotland has a lot of problems, like funding the NHS and universities, poor health, too much drinking and creating worthwhile jobs that will last.
I wish the new government of Scotland a lot of luck. They’ll need it.
I have said many times, that Gordon Brown will rank alongside Lord North as one of our worst Prime Ministers. It would seem now that his country and his supposedly loyal supporters there have deserted his policies.
The Anonymous Widower 