You might think what is the connection between a radical design of train and the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union.
Great Leap Forward Projects
Both are projects that their promoters would say will create a Great-Leap-Forward for Bombardier and the UK respectively.
The Devil Is In The Detail
Both are in trouble.
- Bombardier’s engineers and software developers can’t get software for the Aventra and particularly the Class 710 train for the London Overground, working in the way the train and its operator need.
- UK and EU politicians, aided by some of the most able and expensive lawyers and consultants, can’t stitch together a workable Brexit agreement that is acceptable to all.
Does this mean that both projects are doomed?
Were The Original Plans Creditable?
I’ll take the Aventra first.
Bombardier had missed out on the Thameslink contract and needed to win the Crossrail contract to survive.
So virtually starting with a clean sheet of paper and knowing very well what technology was the best and could be used to advantage, set about designing a train that could adapt for every possible use.
Bombardier also spoke to all those, who would be using or dealing with the trains in some way, to ascertain what they needed.
The result was that Bombardier won the Crossrail order and have since sold fleets of Aventras to London Overground, Greater Anglia, South Western Railway, West Midlands Trains and c2c.
It should also be said that they probably sold some of these fleets before a large number of Aventras were actually running.
So at least Bombardier’s plans appeared sufficiently detailed and creditable to six train operating companies.
Brexit was sold to the British public, in much the same way that evangelists sell you the latest religion, political philosophy, magic cancer cure or con. Is there any difference between the four?
Was any thought given to the serious problem like the Irish border? If anything was, I don’t remember hearing or reading it!
The major policies I remember was that all the money we give to Europe will go to the NHS and that immigration will be cut to almost zero.
Everything that said you should vote Remain was dismissed as Project Fear!
But the philosophy was enough to win the referendum.
What Were The Risks?
The Leavers would have lost, if they had got the estimates of any of these wrong.
- The power and delivery of their philosophy.
- The dislike of immigrants.
- iThe hatred of all things European, except holidays in the sun.
- The weakness of the Remainers message.
It was an easy sell and a majority of the British public bought it.
Forty years ago, when we created Artemis, we followed a route similar to Bombardier with the Aventra, but on a much smaller scale.
- We did an extensive survey of users of Project Management Systems.
- We laid out our objectives, which I have somewhere on a single A4 sheet of paper.
- We researched and defined what hardware we would need.
- I was then able to program the first system.
And guess what! The software was late, by several months.
But at least, when I got it right, systems were able to be delivered. And the orders started to flow!
Based on my experience, the software that runs the Bombardier Aventra will be the biggest risk in the design of the train.
If I’d put this risk to the engineer in charge of Aventra development, I would have been very surprised, if they didn’t agree.
Getting Back On Track
Bombardier will probably do what I did forty years ago.
Keep at it, until the software is perfect and the Class 710 trains run as it says in the brochure.
As happened with Artemis, once you have one system going, on the signing off of the software, you can create other systems or in Bombardier’s case; trains.
Bombardier can add the software to the scores of trains they have already built and stored and start testing, certification and delivery of individual trains.
Software, is like a magic elixir, that brings inanimate objects to life.
Will a magic elixir be found to solve the Brexit logjam?
Bombardier have to create software, that does the following.
- Controls all parts of the train, so they do as promised.
- Connect all train systems together.
- The software must also work flawlessly.
It only needs to work in one language.
The philosophy and structure for a Brexit deal are more complicated.
- There are a lot more issues to be solved.
- Twenty-eight countries, their governments, parliaments and people must be satisfied.
- How many languages will be involved?
Anybody, who reckons they could get a deal is probably a fantasist.
Why Was Artemis Developed?
We knew that there was a need for a small Project Management System.
But look at the date we started development; 1976. James Callaghan had just taken over from Harold Wilson as Prime Minister.
- The country was not doing well.
- The government didn’t have a large majority.
- Everything was doom and gloom.
- Tax rates were as high as eighty percent.
- There was a housing crisis.
- Many were worried about their jobs.
- There was a lot of industrial unrest.
Surely, it wasn’t the time to risk all on a new venture?
But we were not of the herd and we didn’t hold back and went for it. And the rest as they say is history.
It is now 2019 and many of the issues I listed about the mid-1970s still apply.
- The country is not doing well.
- The government doesn’t have a large majority.
- Everything is doom and gloom.
- There is a housing crisis.
- Many are worried about their jobs.
But there is one big difference. If you have an idea that is worth developing, raising money to develop it, is a lot easier to find.
To me, Brexit is a once in a lifetime opportunity for many to develop an idea and/or create a business to overcome the myriad number of problems leaving the EU will bring.
- As leaving the EU without a deal will create more problems, it might be preferable for job creation.
- Brexit may also create opportunities in Europe for new and innovative businesses.
It will be large industries, that will find times harder.
February 2, 2019
Posted by AnonW |
Computing, Transport/Travel, World | Artemis, Aventra, Bombardier, Brexit, Class 710 Train, Software |
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The title of this post is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the first two paragraphs.
London 2012 Olympic high jump champion Ivan Ukhov is among 12 Russian track and field athletes banned for doping by the Court of Arbitration for Sport.
Three years of Ukhov’s results, including the 2012 Olympics, have been disqualified, meaning Britain’s Robert Grabarz could be upgraded to silver.
I grew up in the 1960s, where Russian and East German athletes used every trick in the book to win.
Many clean athletes like the incomparable Kathy Cook, never won the medals they deserved, competing against athletes cheating like mad.
Let’s hope the Russians aren’t returning to the bad old days.
February 2, 2019
Posted by AnonW |
Sport | Athletics, Russia, Russian Doping |
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There are some insights to be gained by watching the RidingTheGoblin Twitter feed.
- There are the usual complainers and pessimists.
- There is information about failed lifts and other problems from London Overground. Usually, lifts seem to get fixed even in this cold weather.
- Yesterday a diesel train failed and it had to go to Willesden to get repaired. A couple of hours later, London Overground, announced that it had returned to the fray. Their words not mine.
- Tom Edwards from the BBC, stated that the new trains won’t arrive before the last diesel train departs.
I think that in mid-March we could end up with the backstop of three Class 378 trains providing a half-hourly service, but the overall capacity will still be the same as with a full fleet of diesel trains.
One extra train would make a lot of difference and the Twitter feed shows one Class 710 train at Walthamstow Queens Road station last night.
It could be a close-run thing!
February 2, 2019
Posted by AnonW |
Transport/Travel | Class 378 Train, Class 710 Train, Gospel Oak And Barking Line |
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The title of this post, is the same as that fn this article on Rail Technology Magazine.
There has been pressure for Gatwick Express trains to stop at Preston Park station.
The trial will now start this month, with two stops in the Peak hours at 0714 and 1744.
I think that the trial sets an interesting precedent.
- Modern trains like the Class 387 trains used on the Gatwick Express can execute a station stop much faster than earlier trains.
- This could mean, that there is a high chance that operationally, the trial will be a success.
- I can’t imagine a train company agreeing to the trial, if the trains didn’t have the performance to do the extra station stop.
So could ia successful trial at Preston Park station, mean that other groups, start pressing for a stop at their local station?
- The trains would need to be modern ones.
- The trains would need to able to stop at the station.
- The signalling must allow it.
I can also see train companies adding extra station stops to take advantage of changing passenger numbers.
February 1, 2019
Posted by AnonW |
Transport/Travel | Gatwick Express, Preston Park Station, Signalling, Stations |
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The title of this post is the same as this article on the BBC.
Will it actually make any difference?
- I looked up the price of two nights in a Premier Inn in the City Centre for next week and they want to charge me £263.
- Glasgow was £137 and Stirling £105 for Premier Inns close to the stations.
- Will the tax apply to Airbnb?
I do think, we’re going to see some innovative tourist taxes and rewards.
For instance, all hotels in Geneva must give you a voucher for a day’s free travel on public transport. This applies for everything from a camp-site to a five-star hotel.
Some hotels in Hamburg, do something similar.
February 1, 2019
Posted by AnonW |
World | Edinburgh, Geneva, Hotel, Tax |
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The title of this post in the same as that of an article by Jim Steer, in Issue 871 of Rail Magazine.
The article talks about the need to safeguard the rail route to the far South West of England and describes in detail, the problems of the current route, how it can be improved, so it is less likely to disruption and the problems of reopening the old London and South Western Railway route through Okehampton and Tavistock to Plymouth.
This is a quote, shown in bold in the article.
Politicians are coming round to the idea that more needs to be done to ensure the resilience of the South West’s rail services.
Reasons given for creating the Okehampton route include.
- Creation of a second route between the Far South West and Exeter.
- Housing in Okehampton and Tavistock.
- Creation of a route for freight trains to the Far South West.
- The route would serve one of the least accessible parts of England.
- Create better access to Exeter and Plymouth for both educational and job opportunities.
But improving the rail links to the Far South West won’t come cheap and costs in the order of a billion pounds are mentioned.
The biggest problem if the Okehampton route is to be reopened, is probably the Meldon Viaduct, which is between Okehampton and Tavistock stations.
Conclusion
Costs may be high, but if climate change or the weather should make the Dawlish route unuseable, can we really cut Plymouth and Cornwall off from the rest of England?
Network Rail are stated to have developed a plan to improve the Dawlish route, but surely, as that could be destroyed as it was in 2014, now is the time to get some of our finest engineers to create a workable plan for the Okehampton route.
Perhaps Lord Foster or another architect or structural engineer, has an idea that could create a replacement Meldon Viaduct. This could be key to an affordable Okehampton route.
February 1, 2019
Posted by AnonW |
Transport/Travel | Cornwall, Dawlish, Devon, Exeter And Plymouth Via Tavistock, Okehampton |
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The Anonymous Widower 