Sadiq Khan ‘Is Waging War On Motorists To Plug The £15 Billion Blackhole In TfL Finances’
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on London Loves Business.
These are the first three paragraphs.
Sadiq Khan plans to raise at least £123 million per year by charging motorists to drive through the Blackwall and Silvertown tunnels.
In a written response to a question from City Hall Conservatives, the Mayor said tolls would be introduced on both tunnels when the new Silvertown Tunnel opens in 2025.
The Mayor said Transport for London (TfL) would receive revenue from the new tolls and penalty notices, less the cost of annual construction repayments and maintenance fees. The Mayor, who is chairman of TfL, has previously said he expects tolls and penalties to ‘more than cover’ these annual costs.
I don’t drive, so the cost of using the tunnels, has no effect on my finances.
This document from TfL says this about car usage in London.
London residents aged 16+ make 4.6m car driver trips and 1.4m car passenger trips
on an average day, of which 3.7m are within London, with the remainder involving
travel to and from London. Non-residents make around 1 million car journeys a day
to, from or within London.
It does look that London has a lot of car drivers and passengers.
Surely, out of common decency, the toll for using the Blackwall and Silvertown tunnels, should be disclosed by Sadiq Khan before the London Mayor Election later this year.
Or is he frightened, that the size of the toll will lose him votes?
Silvertown Tunnel: Cracks In Mayoral Policies
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the sub-heading.
It is an infrastructure project that is well-underway with the boring almost completed — but it has a very low profile.
These are the first three paragraphs.
Every step of the Crossrail tunnelling, the media were invited along. Not so with this project.
This is Silvertown Tunnel. It is more than 1km long and will be London’s first road tunnel in over 30 years.
Perhaps one of the reasons it isn’t being pushed publicity-wise, is it is very controversial.
Tom Edwards gives a detailed outline of why the tunnel is controversial.
Under a heading of HGVs Using Bus Lanes, this is said.
Instead of using the Dartford Crossing, larger HGVs will be able to use the tunnel — and its bus lane.
Campaigners said that will mean more HGVs going through Newham and Greenwich.
I’ve also never heard this before.
Sheila Keeble, of the Greenwich Society, said the tunnel “will be magnet for bigger traffic than we’ve got at the moment”.
“One of the issues we have is all the developers are now looking at building distribution centres,” she said.
“At the moment the Blackwall Tunnel protects us from bigger traffic… Silvertown won’t.”
That is all very logical and I suspect we’ll see larger trucks in Hackney and Waltham Forest too!
There was also this bit of nonsense from Transport for London.
TfL says the tunnel will lead to an overall improvement in air quality.
How will all those trucks through the two tunnels reduce pollution?
In 2024, London must vote for a Mayor, who understands hydrogen, mathematics and science!
London’s Cluttered Pavements Are A Chronic Issue, Report Finds
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the sub-heading.
Central London has “chronic issues” with street clutter, making it a worse place to live, visit and work in, a think tank has warned.
And this is the first paragraph.
A-boards, disused phone boxes and rubbish bags all make pavements unwalkable, especially for those who are mobility or sight impaired.
As someone, who was stopped from driving because of bad eyesight, I’ll agree with that paragraph.
But the biggest clutter are hire bikes just left anywhere in the middle of the pavement.
How do we stop idiots doing this?
This problem is one, where we need sensible action from the Mayor.
One of my criteria, in who gets my vote at the next Mayoral election, will be what they will be doing about street clutter.
Bikes left in places, where they shouldn’t be is easy to solve.
Transport for London should have a few trucks picking up bikes, that have been left in illegal places.
The hire companies would then need to pay an appropriate fine to get the bikes back.
I would also allow private individuals and companies to collect illegally-parked bikes. It could be a nice little earner.
Silvertown Tunnel Works – 24th September 2023
I took these pictures of the Silvertown Tunnel works on the North Bank of the Thames today.
I was on a train going to Woolwich Arsenal.
What Is The Silvertown Tunnel?
The title of this section, is the same as that of this article on the Londonist, which is an excellent description of the Silvertown Tunnel.
The article says this about tolls.
The new tunnel will require you to part with some pounds if you want to use it. Despite the consultation on this taking place a decade ago, the final details have yet to be publicised. We can expect something similar to the Dartford Crossing (currently £2.50 for cars etc, free for motorbikes/mopeds).
As there is a mayoral election next year, I doubt that Sadiq Khan will announce the charge on the Silvertown and Blackwall Tunnels before the election.
Let’s Play Accountants
This is a paragraph in the Londonist Article.
Construction of the tunnel is eating up something like £1.2 billion (2020 estimate). It’ll then cost another estimated £1 billion over 25 years to pay for maintenance, financing and operation. Riverlinx paid up-front costs and will be paid back by TfL through money collected from tolls.
The running costs would appear to be a billion over 25 years, which is £ 40,000,000 in a year.
This is said on this page on the Greater London Assembly web site.
Blackwall tunnels (northbound and southbound) each carry approximately 50,000 vehicles per day in only two lanes of traffic.
That means that each tunnel handles approximately 18,250,000 vehicles per year.
Dartford Crossing charges are according to the Wikipedia entry are as follows.
- Cars, motorhomes, small minibuses – £ 2.50
- 2-axle buses, coaches, vans, goods – £ 3.00
- Multi-axle goods, coaches – £ 6.00
The Wikipedia entry also says this about the capacity and traffic through and over the Dartford Crossing.
The design capacity is 135,000 vehicles per day, but in practice the crossing carries around 160,000.
My good friend; Bob from the 1970s had an impeccable cv.
- Chief Accountant of Vickers.
- Chief Management Accountant of Lloyds Bank.
He was also one of two outstanding practical accountants I have known.
Several of his practical tips on how to handle money in computers, ended up in Artemis; the project management computer system, I wrote in the 1970.
Bob and I would solve problems in Mother Bunches Wine Bar and I suspect, we’d come to the conclusion, that an average charge of £3 per vehicle will be charged in the Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels.
I also believe from my fluid flow experience, that a proportion of the excess traffic through and over the Dartford Crossing will divert to the new Silvertown Tunnel.
- Together the Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels will have four lanes in both directions.
- The Silvertown Tunnel will hopefully designed to modern standards and be more free-flowing, than the Blackwall.
- Sat-navs will direct drivers to the quickest routes.
Just as water finds its own level, an equilibrium will develop between the flows.
- I suspect that during the day, the flow over the Dartford Crossing will drop to the design capacity of 135,000
- At night, will vehicles divert through the free-flowing Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels?
- Will those living in North Central London inside the North Circular Road drive through the Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels?
- Will the free-flowing Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels encourage people crossing the Thames to use their car, rather than the train, as the car is more convenient and the toll will be less than the train fare?
- We should also beware that new roads, railways and tunnels generate new traffic, that no-one predicts.
My feeling is that combined traffic through the four lanes of the Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels will be upwards of seventy thousand per day.
I can now calculate revenue for different levels of combined traffic through the Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels.
- 40,000 vehicles in each direction per day is a total of 29,200,000 vehicles per year, which would raise £ 87.6 million per year in toll charges.
- 50,000 vehicles in each direction per day is a total of 36,500,000 vehicles per year, which would raise £ 109.5 million per year in toll charges.
- 60,000 vehicles in each direction per day is a total of 43,800,000 vehicles per year, which would raise £ 131.4 million per year in toll charges.
- 70,000 vehicles in each direction per day is a total of 51,100,000 vehicles per year, which would raise £ 153.3 million per year in toll charges.
- 80,000 vehicles in each direction per day is a total of 58.400,000 vehicles per year, which would raise £ 175.2 million per year in toll charges.
I am assuming the following.
- All days of a 365-day year have similar traffic.
- Everybody pays without fuss, by technology like number-plate recognition.
- The average toll chare paid is £ 3.
I am drawn to the conclusion, that the contract signed between Transport for London and Riverlinx, is a licence to print money.
Even, if the tunnels only attract 40-50,000 vehicles per day, the revenue is way in excess of the £40 million needed for maintenance, financing and operation of the Silvertown Tunnel.
I have a few further thoughts and questions.
Who Are Riverlinx?
This is said on the About Roverlinx page of the Riverlinx web site.
TfL awarded Riverlinx SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) the contract for financing and overseeing the design, build and maintenance of the Silvertown Tunnel in 2019.
The Riverlinx CJV (Construction Joint Venture) is contracted by TfL and Riverlinx SPV to complete the design and construction works, delivering the Silvertown Tunnel on time and on budget.
Riverlinx CJV is a joint venture, a partnership bringing together international, market leading expertise from three civil engineering and construction companies: BAM Nuttall, Ferrovial Construction and SK ecoplant.
In collaboration with TfL, our supply chain and other key stakeholders in the project, Riverlinx CJV will complete construction of the Silvertown Tunnel in Spring 2025.
Note.
- BAM Nuttall is a construction and civil engineering company, that is a subsidiary of the Dutch Royal BAM Group.
- Ferrovial Construction is the construction subsidiary of Spanish company; Ferrovial.
- SK ecoplant is a subsidiary of the South Korean conglomorate; SK Group.
These companies should be capable of building the Silvertown Tunnel.
Where Will The Money To Build The Tunnel Come From?
In World’s Largest Wind Farm Attracts Huge Backing From Insurance Giant, using an article in The Times, I explain how Aviva invest our pensions and insurance money in wind farms.
Strangely, a tolled tunnel is a bit like a wind farm financially, in that if it’s working and the wind is blowing or the traffic is coming, it will continue to generate an income.
Built by quality construction companies, as most tunnels are, they will be the sort of investment, that would satisfy the Avivas of this world.
Will Riverlinx Get All The Tolls From The Tunnel?
Nothing is said about how the excess of income over expenditure will go.
I suspect, as the project is being designed, financed and built by Riverlinx, that they will not go unrewarded.
Will The Mayor Set The Toll Charges?
I suspect that the Mayor and TfL will set the charges.
These are some figures with different charges for 70,000 vehicles in each direction per day or a total of 51,100,000 vehicles per year.
- £3 in each direction would raise £ 153.3 million per year in toll charges.
- £4 in each direction would raise £ 204.4 million per year in toll charges.
- £5 in each direction would raise £ 255.5 million per year in toll charges.
- £6 in each direction would raise £ 306.6 million per year in toll charges.
Note.
- Some of the papers are talking of a four pound charge.
- A pound increase may not be much to the average driver, but they will certainly mount up.
Higher toll charges could be used by an unscrupulous Mayor to deter vehicles entering Central London or nudge people towards public transport.
What Happens If The Tunnel Springs A Leak?
I can remember the following tunnels being built under the Thames in my lifetime.
- Blackwall Tunnel – second bore
- Dartford Tunnel
- DLR to Greenwich and Lewisham
- DLR to Woolwich
- Elizabeth Line to Woolwich
- Jubilee Line – four crossings
- Victoria Line to Vauxhall
None of these seven seems to have sprung a leak recently. And neither have the older Victorian tunnels.
Tunnels with an income stream, appear to be a good risk, if they don’t spring a leak.
But London tunnels don’t seem to have a high likelihood of leaking.
Fines
Fines could be a problem, but this article on Kent Online, which is entitled Dartford Crossing Continues To Generate more Than One-Third Of Income From Fines As Profits Total More Than £100m, says otherwise.
Conclusion
This would appear to be a low risk venture and I suspect it will make Riverlinx and TfL a lot of money.
TfL Announces The Next Tube Stations To Be Prioritised For Step-Free Access To Meet The Mayor’s Bold Accessibility Targets
The title of this post is the same as that of this press release from Transport for London.
These are the first two paragraphs.
Transport for London (TfL) has outlined the ten London Underground stations it will be reviewing for potential step-free access, as it progresses plans to further improve public transport accessibility in London.
These ten stations, spread across London, have been identified using an approach focused on the benefits to customers, such as reducing journey times for those needing to use step-free access and reflecting issues that impact the delivery of step-free access such as the feasibility of new lifts, sufficient space for work to be carried out and the depth of each Tube station.
The ten stations listed are.
- Alperton
- Arnos Grove
- Burnt Oak – Some work has been started, but paused because of the pandemic
- Eastcote
- Finchley Road
- Northolt – Some work has been started, but paused because of the pandemic
- North Acton
- Rayners Lane
- West Hampstead
- White City
The linked posts will show the latest status at the stations.
Other stations are named in the press release, where work will be done, if funds are available.
- Boston Manor
- Brondesbury
- Colindale
- East Putney
- Hackney Downs
- Hatton Cross
- Leyton
- North Ealing
- Park Royal
- Peckham Rye
- Queen’s Park
- Rickmansworth
- Ruislip
- Snaresbrook
- Surrey Quays
in addition, TfL will be looking at the Northern Line between Elephant and Castle and Morden, where there is a gap in step-free access.
These are a few thoughts.
The London Mayor Election In 2024
How many of these stations are in areas, where Sadiq Khan is short of votes for the 2024 election?
Arnos Grove Station
Work has already started at Arnos Grove station, as I showed in Are Arnos Grove And Northolt Tube Stations Going Step Free?.
The BBC Jumped The Gun
The press release now explains the BBC story from Mpnday, that I wrote about in Are Arnos Grove And Northolt Tube Stations Going Step Free?.
Why Should I Pay For The ULEZ Scrappage Scheme?
The Mayor’s pet anti-pollution project the ULEZ scheme is controversial to say the least.
This article on the BBC is entitled ULEZ: Labour MPs In London Call For ULEZ Scrappage Scheme Review.
So even MPs in his own party don’t agree with the current policy!
Consider.
- I am a non-driver after a stroke ruined my eyesight.
- The only possible benefit, that I might get, is slightly less pollution around where I live.
- But the jury is out on that and the current evidence is dubious, as the Mayor has paid for it to be collected.
- In 2021, the population of London had the chance to remove Sadiq Khan, but decided to re-elect him, despite his ULEZ policy.
- So I have no sympathy for those, who have to rely on a non-compliant car or van to go about their daily business.
- They knew they had to either get a compliant vehicle, pay the £12.50 per day or move to somewhere with a friendlier transport policy.
- If the Mayor wanted to cut pollution in London, he could at least have a hydrogen policy, which allowed large trucks based in London to use this clean fuel.
We have another Mayoral election in 2024!
I shall not be voting for any candidate, who proposes to use London taxpayers’ hard-earned money for a scrappage scheme or who doesn’t have a feasible hydrogen policy.
Effects Of The ULEZ In West London
This page on the Transport for London web site is entitled ULEZ Expansion 2023.
This is the first paragraph.
To help clear London’s air and improve health, the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) is expanding across all London boroughs from 29 August 2023.
These are some points from the rest of the page.
- Poor air quality is impacting the health of Londoners, and it’s mainly caused by polluting vehicles.
- Air pollution even contributes to the premature death of thousands of Londoners every year.
- 9 out of 10 cars seen driving in outer London already meet the ULEZ emissions standards.
- If you drive anywhere within the ULEZ and your vehicle does not meet the emissions standards, you could face a daily charge of £12.50.
- Residents of the ULEZ are not exempt from the charge.
- Any money received from the scheme is reinvested into running and improving London’s transport network, such as expanding bus routes in outer London.
There is no reference to trucks or HGVs.
These are my thoughts.
Objections To The ULEZ
If you type ULEZ into Google and look at the News page, you get a lot of stories that don’t show the ULEZ in a good light.
Here are a few headlines.
- BBC – ULEZ: Labour MPs Seek Support For Non-Londoners
- BBC – Firms In Essex Could Close Due To ULEZ, Warns Business Leader
- Big Issue – London’s Ulez Plans Could Hit Disabled People, Charities And Small Businesses The Hardest
- Daily Mail – Sadiq Khan Claims That Nazis Have Infiltrated Anti-Ulez Protests
- Guardian – EU Motorist Fined Almost £11,000 After Falling Foul Of London Ulez Rule
- Guardian – London’s Mayor Faces High Court Challenge Over Ulez Expansion
- Kent Live – Anti-ULEZ Campaign Group Support Soars As Kent Drivers ‘Unfairly Targeted’
- LBC – No More Ulez? Sadiq Khan Considers Scrapping Controversial Scheme And Replacing It With ‘Pay-As-You-Drive’ System
- Slough Observer – Ulez Faces High Court Challenge
- Which? – Why It Could Cost £17.50 To Drop A Loved One At Heathrow This Summer
It looks like Sadiq Khan has fallen into a hole.
And he hasn’t stopped digging!
To make it worse, he has suggested a Pay-As-You-Drive System. I seem to remember, that a Dutch Prime Minister, who tried it, lost the next election.
But then Sadiq Khan likes tolls as the new Silvertown Tunnel and the Blackwall Tunnel will be tolled in a few years.
Heathrow Airport
Heathrow Airport is one of the world’s busiest airports and 76,000 people work at the airport, with many more employed nearby.
The airport handled 61.6 million passengers in 2022, which is a few short of 170,000 per day.
If you consider that those that work at the airport do two trips per day and passengers generally do one, that means there are 322,000 trips per day to or from the airport.
But as it now so easy to get to the Airport using the Elizabeth Line will more people use the new line to meet and greet and say goodbye to loved ones or business associates. Since the Elizabeth Line opened, I’ve met a couple of friends at Heathrow, who were passing through.
I wonder, if that daily journey total of 322,000 could be nearer to 350,000 or even 400,000.
If the ULEZ charge makes some passengers and staff switch from their car to using a bus or train, this probably means that public transport to and from the airport, will need to be boosted by a substantial amount.
But improving public transport to Heathrow wouldn’t be easy.
- The Elizabeth Line seems to have put a big hole in the finances of Heathrow Express.
- How many more trains can be squeezed into the Heathrow Tunnel?
- The Western Rail Link to Heathrow would probably need to be built. But that seems to be in limbo.
- New trains for the Piccadilly Line are a few years away.
It might have been better to build a different scheme for Western access to Heathrow like the Heathrow Southern Railway.
I suspect that there will be a lot more passengers on the Elizabeth Line to and from Heathrow.
A ULEZ For Heathrow
This article on fleetworld, from four years ago, is entitled Heathrow To Introduce Charging ULEZ In 2022.
It hasn’t happened, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be implemented in the future.
If it did happen, there would be more passengers for the Elizabeth Line.
The Elizabeth Line
I have written three posts about how busy the Western section of the Elizabeth Line can get.
- Very Busy Lizzie
- Elizabeth Line: Commuters Say Service ‘Not What Was Promised’
- So Many Cases On A Train!
Is there sufficient capacity to accommodate all the ULEZ-dodgers on the trains to and from Heathrow?
To make matters worse, there is a large Asian population from the Indian sub-continent living along the Elizabeth Line between Ealing Broadway and Reading.
- They seem to be enthusiastic users of the line.
- Having ridden several times on crowded Indian trains, perhaps using trains is very much part of South Asian culture.
- I also suspect that a lot of Indian families have spread themselves along the line, just like my mother’s close family spread themselves along the 107 bus route.
In Very Busy Lizzie, I said this.
Reading needs four tph to Central London.
The ULEZ will make this even more essential.
The Piccadilly Line
The Piccadilly Line may be getting new trains, but it is not a line that is blessed with lots of step-free stations.
The West London Orbital Railway
It does appear that the West London Orbital Railway may be more likely to be built, than a few months ago.
In Is There Progress On The West London Orbital Railway?, I wrote about a report, that consultants were being chosen.
This railway could ease pressure on the railways in West London.
Cutting Pollution In London From Trucks
London like all big cities has a lot of trucks.
As the average truck has a much larger engine than the average car, I would suspect it gives out more pollution.
One way to cut pollution from large vehicles would be to run them on hydrogen.
But unlike some cities in the UK, London has no hydrogen policy and filling stations to fill them up.
The Mayor could at least get a workable hydrogen policy.
Conclusion
I suspect the next Mayor of London will have to have a rethink on the ULEZ and implement a hydrogen policy.
Electric Cars Are A Dead End!
When you introduce any product to the general population, you must think of all the consequences.
I found these statistics on the RAC Foundation web site.
There were 33.2 million cars (81.3 per cent), 4.63 million LGVs (11.3 per cent), 0.54 million HGVs (1.3 per cent), 1.46 million motorcycles (3.6 per cent), 0.15 million buses & coaches (0.4 per cent) and 0.84 million other vehicles (2 per cent) licensed at the end of September 2022.
Could anybody please tell me how the average guy or gal, who owns one of those 33.2 million cars is going to be able to afford to replace it, find a convenient place to park and charge it and go and visit their mum in say Scunthorpe from Plymouth?
We are going down a massive dead end!
The only sensible alternative is internal combustion engines running on hydrogen, many of which could be converted from existing diesel engines.
But only a few councils have a hydrogen policy, with the biggest disgrace being London, where the Mayor’s hydrogen policy, is to ignore it and hope it will go away.London has an air quality problem, which is not helped by large numbers of HGVs in the centre.
The technology exists to convert HGVs to hydrogen and it would be possible to insist that all vehicles over a certain weight were zero-carbon. But as London has no plans for hydrogen, it can’t happen.
Vote Hydrogen for Mayor in May 2024, to improve London’s air quality.
Notes.
- To replace 33.2 million cars with electric ones would cost 1660 billion pounds, assuming each electric car costs fifty grand.
- As most electric cars are not made in the UK, what would happen to our balance of payments?
- On average an electric car needs 63 kilos of lithium for its battery, so 33.2 million will need over two million tonnes of lithium.
The Anonymous Widower 