When Silvertown Opens, Blackwall Tolls Start Too
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the sub-heading.
In under a month, tolls will be introduced for drivers at the new Silvertown Tunnel and the existing Blackwall Tunnel in east London.
These four paragraphs add detail to the story.
For car drivers it will cost £8 a day in peak. These are huge changes to London’s transport network and awareness seems to be low.
The new highly controversial Silvertown Tunnel opens on 7 April.
Critics have dubbed the crossing a huge polluting white elephant that will do nothing to cut congestion and pollution with little or no business case.
Supporters say it will reduce congestion on the old, existing Blackwall Tunnel and improve resilience on the crossing that closes between 600-700 times a year. It will also provide more cross river bus routes as well as a bus that can carry bikes.
As a very experienced mathematical modeller, my gut feeling is that four new tolled lanes under the River Thames is not the solution.
These are my thoughts.
Transport for London Are Not Good Mathematical Modellers
As a non-driver, I rely heavily on the 141 bus for transport.
- It stops close to my house.
- It takes me to and from Moorgate, where I also pick up the Elizabeth Line.
- It takes me to and from Bank, where I also pick up the Central Line.
- It takes me to and from River Thames, from where I pick up the Thames Clippers.
- It takes me to and from London Bridge station, where I also pick up theThameslink.
- It takes me to and from Manor House station, where I pick up the Piccadilly Line.
- It takes me to and from Harringay Green Lanes station, where I pick up the Gospel Oak to Barking Line.
I must admit some of the reasons I like the bus route, are that it connects me to my childhood memories of WoodGreen, Southgate, Oakwood and Cockfosters.
When, I moved here, there were two North-South buses that ran within fifty metres of my house.
- The 21 bus ran between Newington Green and Lewisham.
- The 141 bus ran between Palmers Green and London Bridge station.
Then, two years ago the Elizabeth Line and the rebuilt Bank station both opened, followed a year later by an upgraded Old Street station.
These three improvements, added a lot more passengers to the North-South corridor, between London Bridge station and Newington Green roundabout.
I suspect a quality modelling of bus passengers North-South, through the city of London, would have shown, that more buses were needed on the combined 21/141 route.
So what did Sir SadIQ and Transport for London do? They rerouted the 21 bus away from the busiest section through De Beauvoir Town.
In their modelling, I suspect.
- They overestimated how many travellers used the Northern Line.
- They ignored the fact, that the Piccadilly Line doesn’t serve the City of London.
- They ignored the fact, that the Piccadilly Line doesn’t connect to the Elizabeth Line.
- They ignored the fact, that the 141 bus, is the only direct way between Palmers Green, Wood Green, Turnpike Lane and Manor House to the City of London.
- They felt De Beauvoir Town was a posh area and doesn’t need more buses, as residents can use their cars.
Halving the number of buses was a seriously bad decision.
I now have a damaged left knee due to constant standing on overcrowded buses.
It’s also got a lot worse lately due to constant bus diversions and cancellations, due to Islington’s LTNs and constant road works.
I’ve heard similar tales of bad bus planning from all over London.
So why should I trust Transport for London’s traffic modelling on the Silvertown and Blackwall Tunnels?
The Silvertown And Blackwall Tunnel Share Approach Routes
This map from the BBC article shows the layout of the two tunnels and their approach roads.
Note.
- The Blackwall Tunnel is two, two lane tunnels, one in each direction.
- The Silvertown Tunnel is one four lane tunnel, with two lanes in each direction.
- The O2 lies between the two tunnels.
The map shows the shared approach road for both tunnels.
What happens if there is an accident on the approach to the tunnels?
Tolling Problems
I feel that the tolling regime is overly complicated.
Hopefully, any problems this causes will lessen, as drivers know what to do.
The Sat-Nav Route Between The Tunnels And The M1
I’ve just looked one recommended route up, not that I have a Sat-Nav and I’ve never used one and the route is straightforward.
- Blackwall Tunnel Northern Approach to Hackney Wick.
- Wick Lane to Hackney Central.
- Graham Road and Dalston Lane to Dalston Junction
- Balls Pond Road to Southgate Road/Mildmay Park
- St. Paul’s Road to Highbury & Islington station.
- Holloway Road to Archway.
- Archway Road, Aylmer Road and Falloden Way to Henly’s Corner.
- North Circular Road and Great North Way to the M1.
I live just South of the Southgate Road/Mildmay Park junction and often these days it is jammed solid.
But there is another route from Hackney Wick.
- A12 to Redbridge Roundabout on the North Circular Road.
- North Circular Road to the M1.
I dread to see what happens, when the Dartford Crossing is closed and heavy trucks from the Channel Tunnel to the M1, decide to take the Silvertown Tunnel as an alternative route.
Silvertown Tunnel Works – 1st January 2025
cklAlthough today was not the best day weather-wise, it has been a long time since I’ve photographed the works on the Northern exit of the Silvertown tunnel.
Note.
- The picture sequence starts as I’m leaving Canning Town station on a Docklands Light Railway train.
- As the weather wasn’t good, I took the train to London City Airport, where I walked across the platform and came home.
- City Hall is the angular building, that is behind the flyover.
- Is that underpass under the flyover to get vehicles to and from City Hall quicker?
The quality of the pictures would have been helped by better weather.
Petition Calls Made To Scrap Blackwall And Silvertown Tolls
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the sub-heading.
A petition containing more than 37,000 signatures calling for proposed tolls on the Blackwall and Silvertown tunnels to be scrapped has been presented at City Hall.
These four paragraphs give more details.
Toll charges of up to £4 per journey through the soon-to-open Silvertown Tunnel and the neighbouring Blackwall Tunnel were announced by Transport for London (TfL) on 26 November.
The Silvertown Tunnel will open next spring and will provide a new road crossing under the Thames between Silvertown and the Greenwich Peninsula.
The charges are “designed to manage levels of traffic using the tunnels”, TfL has said.
A TfL spokesperson added that without the tolls, “traffic would increase in both tunnels causing delays and congestion, which contribute to poorer air quality”.
Note.
- 37,000 is a large petition.
- If Transport for London wanted to reduce pollution, they could encourage greater use of hydrogen.
I have done some simple modeling using Excel.
- There are six vehicle crossings; Dartford Bridge, Dartford Crossing, Woolwich Ferry, Silvertown Tunnel, Blackwall Tunnel and Rotherhithe Tunnel.
- Matters are complicated by each crossing being a different size.
- There are several reliable rail crossings and a number of foot crossings, which offer alternatives, for those travellers on foot.
- Currently the worst disruption occurs, when more than one route is out of action at the same time.
It is a very complex river crossing,
I feel strongly that we aren’t going to get a true picture of traffic flow through the two new tunnels, until we see serious disruption on the Dartford Crossing.
But what worries me most, is that in the last few years, TfL have made decisions, where they must have done extensive mathematical modelling and they seem to have come up with answers, that are wide of the mark.
Congestion Prediction
I believe that we now have enough data, that by the use of modern computing, advanced vehicle detection techniques and a liberal dollop of artificial intelligence we should be able to accurately predict the traffic flow over the Thames between Dartford and Silvertown, better than we have done in the past.
But will this just mean, that everybody just takes the least-congested route?
Council’s Concerns Over Suggested Tunnel Charges
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the sub-heading.
Concerns have been raised by a county council over suggested charges at the Silvertown and Blackwall tunnels in London.
These are the first two paragraphs.
Kent County Council (KCC) said the proposed charges could impact on the county’s traffic, including at the Dartford Crossing.
The council said although it supported TfL’s ambition to improve journey reliability and reduce air pollution, it believed the proposed changes could “significantly affect” drivers from Kent.
I can’t see that the charges on the two tunnels won’t affect drivers habits.
Thirty years ago, before satellite-navigation had been invented, when my family and myself lived in East Suffolk, if I was returning from Brighton or Gatwick, I would make a choice about, whether to use the Dartford Crossing or the Blackwall Tunnel. Sometimes traffic was so bad, that I had to take the longer Western route using the M11 and the A14.
I didn’t really bother about the toll on the Dartford Tunnel, as it was then, but often the free Blackwall route was quicker.
In those days, I was relying on radio reports, but now with satellite-navigation, drivers will be taking more intelligent decisions, that take account of tolls.
The BBC article also says this.
The council says Kent drivers make up 10% of the Blackwall Tunnel’s users.
So it looks like the drivers of Kent will be paying tolls to London.
These are my thoughts.
How Can The Tolls Be Avoided?
There will still be two free crossings, to the East of Tower Bridge; the Rotherhithe Tunnel and the Woolwich Ferry, but how long will they remain free, if they drain money from the tolled tunnels?
What About The Trains?
Trains from somewhere like Ebbsfleet international station can be used.
Ebbsfleet international station has a lot of parking, but at some stations parking is distinctly limited.
I doubt though, that Transport for London have done a professional survey of the amount of parking that is needed.
They tend to believe if people live out of London, that parking for trips to London is not a Transport for London problem.
Are there any plans to increase the train frequencies, if more people use them?
Note that Off Peak Day Return tickets can be purchased with a Railcard, from Dartford to London for under a tenner, and from Ebbsfleet international to London for under fifteen pounds.
If Built, Will The Lower Thames Crossing Help?
The first paragraph of the Wikipedia entry for the Lower Thames Crossing, describes it like this.
The Lower Thames Crossing is a proposed road crossing of the Thames estuary downstream of the Dartford Crossing that links the counties of Kent and Essex, and its proposed approaches. If built it would pass through the districts of Thurrock and Gravesham, supplementing the Dartford route. The approximately 14.3-mile (23.0 km) route is being assessed by the Planning Inspectorate.
As it is likely to cost nine billion pounds and take six years to build, I can’t see the current Government building it.
But it would certainly make it easier for traffic to go between the Channel Tunnel and North of London.
Conclusion
I can see the UK muddling through, when we should be bold and create the transport infrastructure for the Twenty-First Century.
For instance, I would extend the Elizabeth Line in the North-East to Southend and in the South-East to Ebbsfleet and Gravesend. With the existing cross-platform interchange at Whitechapel, I believe, it could pick up much of the cross-river passenger traffic close to London.
I also feel that there will need to be improved connections between the fast-expanding London Gateway freight port and the Channel Tunnel.
BMF And NMC: ‘Plans To Charge Motorcyclists To Use The Silvertown And Blackwell Tunnels Are Flawed’
The title of this post, is the same as that as this page on the British Motorcyclists Federation.
These are the first two paragraphs.
The British Motorcyclists Federation (BMF) and the National Motorcyclists Council (NMC) have responded to the Transport for London (TFL) consultation on plans to charge motorcyclists to use the Silvertown and Blackwell tunnels from 2025. TfL are urged to “think again” on flawed plans that fail to take into account the positive impact of motorcycles on London’s pollution and congestion levels.
The BMF and NMC, in a combined response to TfL’s consultation on the proposed Charging Scheme for the Silvertown and Blackwall tunnels, have lodged detailed objections to the proposals to implement charges for motorcycles to use the Tunnels from 2025. Both UK motorcycling organisations have urged TfL to reconsider their proposed strategy and to exempt motorcyclists from the charges.
I think that the two organisations have a point and they emblazon this across the article.
To equate motorcycles with cars, with the same fee charged for both, is completely illogical.
But then, when were the Mayor of London and Transport for London ever logical and mathematically-correct?
Will The Charging System Identify Motorcycles Correctly?
On a project, I worked on in the 1970s, I was told it was difficult. I doubt that has changed.
Conclusion
The article makes some powerful arguments, but I doubt they’ll get anywhere with the stubbornest man in the UK.
Are Motorists Set To Be Charged For Using The Rotherhithe Tunnel?
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Highway News.
These are the first two paragraphs of the article.
Despite TfL commissioner Andy Lord insisting there were “no plans” to start charging drivers to use the Rotherhithe tunnel, concerns are mounting that road tolls could be imposed on a third river crossing in east London,
According to the Evening Standard ‘critics’ suspect that many motorists will divert to the 116-year-old tunnel, which lies east of Tower Bridge and links Rotherhithe and Limehouse, when £4 rush-hour tolls are introduced next Spring at the Blackwall and new Silvertown tunnels.
As I understand it, to use the Blackwall and Silvertown tunnels, you will have to register with TfL AutoPay system, so tolling will be automatic.
It looks to me, that if journeys were to be charged for the Rotherhithe tunnel, then this would not be the most difficult of propositions.
The article also says this about the maintenance of the Rotherhithe tunnel.
But he suggested this could change if money had to be raised to repay the cost of a long-awaited upgrade. At present, the tunnel is closed every Monday night for maintenance.
I certainly, wouldn’t rule out a London Mayor in the future charging for traffic through the Rotherhithe tunnel.
Some London bridges, like Hammersmith, are also very much in need of repair. So perhaps, temporary tolls could be applied to raise money for the upgrades!
Conclusion
I suspect Spring 2025 will be an interesting time for motorists needing to cross the Thames, to the East of Tower Bridge.
Blackwall Tunnel Southbound Route To Close For Four More Weekends
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the sub-heading.
Part of the Blackwall Tunnel will close this weekend as work continues on the Silvertown Tunnel.
These three paragraphs detail the closures.
The southbound route will be closed from 00:01 BST Saturday until 05:00 Monday and on three further weekends.
The 57-year-old crossing is also due to shut on 1-3 June, 8-10 June and 29 June-1 July, as resurfacing and landscaping work is undertaken.
The Silvertown Tunnel is due to open in 2025, after which drivers using both tunnels will pay to cross the Thames.
At least the works to create the Silvertown Tunnel, seem to be progressing as planned.
But then London’s tunnels have generally been completed on time.
First Look Inside £2.2bn Silvertown Tunnel
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
These are the first five paragraphs.
For the first time, Transport for London has invited journalists inside what is one of the most controversial infrastructure projects in the capital.
The Silvertown Tunnel is 1.4km (just under one mile) long and stretches from Silvertown in Newham to the Greenwich Peninsula.
Inside the tunnel, it is extremely wide. A lot bigger than other tunnels like the supersewer or Crossrail. Boring was finished a few weeks ago.
Transport for London (TfL) says the scheme will address queues at the Blackwall Tunnel and reduce pollution. But it has faced fierce opposition from those who think it will do the total opposite and increase pollution and congestion.
And the big question is – even with mitigation – can a road tunnel ever be green?
Note.
- There is a good picture, showing the width of the tunnel.
- It is very wide and can’t be much narrower than the four-lane Queensway Tunnel, which was opened under Mersey in 1934.
These are my thoughts.
I Am Against The Tunnel Being Built
My main reason I am against the Silvertown Tunnel is that Transport for London’s mathematical modelling of and rerouting of buses past my house has been some of the worst I’ve seen. I talk about the bus problems I now have in Is The Nightmare On The Buses Going To Get Worse?
So until the two tunnels; Blackwall and Silvertown are complete and open with tolling, I won’t trust any of Transport for London’s pronouncements.
I also feel that as the Silvertown Tunnel will allow trucks to pass though, there will be times, when they will cut through the East End to get to the Motorways going North.
But now, it’s more or less finished, we will probably need to use it.
How Is The Tunnel Being Paid For?
The Wikipedia entry for the Silvertown Tunnel has a section called Costs, where this is said.
In 2012, the cost was stated to be £600m. A consultation in 2015 stated that the cost of construction was estimated to be £1bn. In March 2020, the cost was increased again, to £1.2 billion. Operation, maintenance and financial costs of the tunnel over 25 years is expected to cost another £1bn.
The £2.2 billion will be repaid by tolls on both tunnels. Effectively, it’s a Private Finance Initiative or PFI.
Can A Road Tunnel Ever Be Green?
This is the question the BBC asked in the last paragraph of my extract.
Although, I am very much against this tunnel, I do believe this tunnel can be green.
- Suppose, the tunnels were made free for zero-carbon vehicles, that were powered by batteries, hydrogen or possibly ammonia.
- This might nudge vehicle owners and operations to go zero-carbon.
This extra number of zero-carbon vehicles would help to clean up London’s air.
I wonder which will be the preferred route for trucks associated with construction to go to and from sites in Central London?
- These trucks are major polluters in Central London.
- There are sensible moves to make construction sites zero-carbon.
If the Silvertown Tunnel didn’t have tolls for zero-carbon trucks, then surely this would nudge, this sizeable group of trucks to go zero-carbon to the benefit of everyone in Central London.
The only problem with making zero-carbon vehicles toll-free, is that it probably ruins the finances of the tunnels, from the point of view of the investors.
Conclusion
I can see lots of conflict starting over the operation of this tunnel.
Are Londoners The Tunnel Kings?
I was born in 1947 and it was in the early 1960s, that I started to develop an interest in engineering, which eventually led me to study Electrical Engineering and Electronics at Liverpool University.
Like most Londoners, I was a frequent user of the Underground and for six or seven years, I took the Piccadilly Line many days between Oakwood and Southgate to go to Minchenden Grammar School. Often, after school, I would go on to my father’s print works near Word Green tube station.
But not memories of London’s tunnels were so memorable at that time. One day, we were driving to see my Uncle Bert in Broadstairs and we were held in the Blackwall Tunnel for an hour or so because of an accident.
Perhaps, this is why I can remember a black-and-white video of digging the Western Tunnel of the Dartford Crossing so vividly. But as Raymond Baxter probably explained to BBC viewers at the time, it dug using a Greathead shield under pressure to keep the water out. It was probably the last tunnel dug under the Thames using methods, that would have been familiar to Victorian engineers.
This British Pathe video shows some of the construction of the Western tunnel.
This paragraph from the Wikipedia entry for the Eastern Tunnel describes its construction.
Construction was approved in April 1971, with an initial expected opening date in 1976. Work was delayed due to a lack of funds, which was resolved by EEC funding granted in 1974. The second tunnel opened in May 1980, allowing each tunnel to handle one direction of traffic, by which time the joint capacity of the two tunnels had increased to 65,000 vehicles per day. Connection of the crossing to the M25 was completed on the northerly Essex side in September 1982 (Junction 31), and to the southerly Kent side in September 1986 (Junction 1a)
The tunnels may be inadequate in terms of capacity, but they have certainly done a reliable job for sixty and forty-three years respectively.
There are other tunnels under the Thames, that have been built in my lifetime.
- Thames Cable Tunnel – 1970 – National Grid’s 400 kV cable.
- High Speed One – 2007
- Dartford Tunnel (East) – 1980
- Dartford Tunnel (West) – 1963
- Dartford Cable Tunnel – 2004
- Docklands Light Railway Tunnel – 2009
- Elizabeth Line Tunnel – 2014
- Millennium Dome Cable Tunnel – 1999
- Jubilee Line Tunnels – 1999 – Planned by Artemis
- Blackwall Runnel (East) – 1967
- Isle of Dogs Jubilee Line Tunnels – 1999 – Planned by Artemis
- Docklands Light Railway Tunnel – 1999 – Planned by Artemis
- Deptford Cable Tunnel –
- Jubilee Line Tunnels – 1999 – Planned by Artemis
- Victoria Line Tunnel – 1971
- New Cross to Finsbury Market Cable Tunnel – 2017
- Wimbledon to Pimlico Cable Tunnel – 1996
- London Power Tunnels – 2018, 2011
There are also these tunnels, which don’t go under the Thames
Bank Station Expansion And New Southbound Northern Line Tunnel – 2022
- Elstree to St. John’s Wood Cable Tunnel – 2005
- Heathrow Rail Tunnels – 1998
- Lee Tunnel – 2016
- Limehouse Link Tunnel – 1993
- Lower Lea Valley Cable Tunnels – 2008
- Northern Line Extension To Battersea – 2021
- Piccadilly Line Extension To Heathrow – 1975-2008
- Thames Tideway Tunnel – Estimated completion in 2025 – Tunnelling ended in 2022.
- Thames Water Ring Main – 2010
Note.
- The date is the opening date.
- I am pleased to see that at least some projects were planned, with the software, I wrote in a Suffolk attic.
In my lifetime, at least 27 substantial tunnels have been completed, a very large proportion of which have been on time and on budget, with the possible exception of the Heathrow Rail Tunnels, which collapsed.
So Why Has London Got A Good Record On Tunnelling?
In Millicent And Ursula Prepare To Go Tunnelling, I describe my visit to the Tideway Open Day today to see the tunnel boring machines; Millicent and Ursula before they went tunnelling.
On that Sunday morning, I also chatted with the engineers and tunnelers.
- All had worked on at least one of London’s previous tunnels.
- One had worked on the Second Dartford Tunnel, the Channel Tunnel and Crossrail.
- A couple said, that after the Tideway finished, they would be off to High Speed Two.
Is London’s good record on delivering tunnels safely and on time and on budget, a case of lots of experience and practice makes perfect?
If it is, we should definitely think hard about how we handle large projects.
Wind Farms
Many have been constructed this way.
- The grid substation and connection to the grid is built.
- The foundations of the turbines are installed.
- The turbines are erected.
- All the turbines are commissioned.
This sequence or something like it can be applied to onshore and offshore wind farms.
- Most jobs are repeated many times by specialist teams using purpose-built cranes, ships and other equipment.
- Bigger wind farms, just need more repeated operations.
- All operations are generally in a small geographical area.
- I suspect specialist software has been built to project manage, the building of wind farms. If it hasn’t, I have my ideas.
Project management should be relatively easy.
Sadiq Khan ‘Is Waging War On Motorists To Plug The £15 Billion Blackhole In TfL Finances’
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on London Loves Business.
These are the first three paragraphs.
Sadiq Khan plans to raise at least £123 million per year by charging motorists to drive through the Blackwall and Silvertown tunnels.
In a written response to a question from City Hall Conservatives, the Mayor said tolls would be introduced on both tunnels when the new Silvertown Tunnel opens in 2025.
The Mayor said Transport for London (TfL) would receive revenue from the new tolls and penalty notices, less the cost of annual construction repayments and maintenance fees. The Mayor, who is chairman of TfL, has previously said he expects tolls and penalties to ‘more than cover’ these annual costs.
I don’t drive, so the cost of using the tunnels, has no effect on my finances.
This document from TfL says this about car usage in London.
London residents aged 16+ make 4.6m car driver trips and 1.4m car passenger trips
on an average day, of which 3.7m are within London, with the remainder involving
travel to and from London. Non-residents make around 1 million car journeys a day
to, from or within London.
It does look that London has a lot of car drivers and passengers.
Surely, out of common decency, the toll for using the Blackwall and Silvertown tunnels, should be disclosed by Sadiq Khan before the London Mayor Election later this year.
Or is he frightened, that the size of the toll will lose him votes?
The Anonymous Widower 