Is The NHS The Cause Of The Rise In The Covids?
I was lying in my morning bath thinking this morning and I had the heretic thought, which is the title of this post.
How many prominent people in the UK have died from an attack of the covids? There have been some at an advanced age, but generally they were suffering from something else as well!
The highest profile person to be hospitalised by the covids, has been Boris. But despite his weight and obesity, he came through it unscathed, due to excellent care in an NHS hospital!
I’m 73 now, but if I look back to my twenties and thirties, I see an optimistic, fit, slim guy, who felt he was immune from health problems. I can also only remember one of my peers at Liverpool University in the 1960s going into hospital and it was so memorable, I can’t remember what he had.
The youth of the UK, don’t think the covids will happen to them and growing up in an NHS, which has looked after their every need, when they look around them, they feel it will get them through, if they catch the virus.
So the fact that the NHS is there and got the fat Boris, through it, means that they think, they’ll be alright in the end.
Conclusion
The success of the NHS could be a factor in the rise of lab-confirmed cases of the covids.
Are other countries with good health systems, that coped with the first wave, xperiencing a second one?
Getting A Flu Jab
Ten days ago, I got a text message from my GP’s surgery, asking me to make an appointment for a flu jab.
I have phoned several times since and have not got through successfully. As I also need a B12 injection and some more Warfarin, for which I might need a quick chat on the phone from my doctor, it is getting increasingly important that I get through.
Dr. Rosemary Leonard on the BBC this morning, said that there were a lot of people wanting flu jabs this year, so I may march in to Boots, as was suggested in the text message.
Incidentally, why can the GP Surgery text me, but they have no simple way I can text or send them an e-mail from a form with Capcha to sort the bad from the good?
Healthcare and computing seem to have a match made in hell!
Whitby: Hundreds Of Jobs Created At Woodsmith Mine
The title of this post, is the same as that article on the BBC.
This is the introductory paragraph.
Two hundred jobs are being created by a company developing a huge potash mine in North Yorkshire.
I have been watching this project for some time and I’m rather glad, that Woodsmith Mine seems to be past its troubles. This is an extract from the first paragraph in the Wikipedia entry.
The mine is expected to have a life of 100 years and has been labelled the biggest mining project in Britain for decades; its twin shafts will be the deepest commercial mineshafts in Britain. The project is expected to generate over £100 billion for the UK economy over a period of 50 years.
When the project is up and running, it will be the deepest mine in Europe and have the longest tunnel in Great Britain.
I also feel that Woodsmith Mine, shows that mining don’t have to ruin the landscape.
Siemens and Macquarie Form Calibrant Energy To Tackle Distributed Energy Market
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on Greentech Media.
This is the introductory paragraphs.
Macquarie Capital and Siemens have formed a joint venture to finance and build distributed energy projects, joining an increasingly competitive landscape in the growing corporate renewables market, the two announced this week.
The partnership, called Calibrant Energy, will initially focus its energy-as-a-service model in the United States, where corporate and industrial customers have become heavyweight renewables buyers as they seek to reach decarbonization goals.
It looks a good idea for a business venture.
I also like it, that two big corporate beats have got together tp finance and install renewable energy systems like solar.
Glasgow To Roll Out ‘World’s Largest’ Fleet Of Hydrogen-Powered Refuse Trucks
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Cities Today.
Some points from the article.
- There will be nineteen trucks.
- The project is a joint venture between Scottish Power Renewables, BOC and ITM Power.
I think that refuse trucks could be a large application of hydrogen.
Toyota, Hitachi, JR East To Jointly Develop Hydrogen-Powered Trains
The title of this post, is the same as that of yjis article on The Mainichi.
This is the first two paragraphs.
TOKYO (Kyodo) — Toyota Motor Corp., Hitachi Ltd. and East Japan Railway Co. said Tuesday they will jointly develop hydrogen-powered trains as part of their efforts to reduce carbon emissions.
The three companies have agreed to collaborate on development of test railway vehicles equipped with hybrid systems that use hydrogen-fuel cells and storage batteries as their source of power.
It appears that Toyota will provide the fuel cell technology.
Are Floating Wind Farms The Future?
Boris Johnson obviously thinks so, as he said this about floating wind farms at the on-line Tory conference today.
We will invest £160m in ports and factories across the country, to manufacture the next generation of turbines.
And we will not only build fixed arrays in the sea; we will build windmills that float on the sea – enough to deliver one gigawatt of energy by 2030, 15 times floating windmills, fifteen times as much as the rest of the world put together.
Far out in the deepest waters we will harvest the gusts, and by upgrading infrastructure in such places as Teesside and Humber and Scotland and Wales we will increase an offshore wind capacity that is already the biggest in the world.
Just because Boris said it, there is a large amount of comment on the Internet, describing everything he said and floating wind turbines as utter crap.
Wikipedia
The Wikipedia entry for floating wind turbines is particularly informative and gives details on their history, economics and deployment.
This is a paragraph from the Wikipedia entry.
Hywind Scotland has 5 floating turbines with a total capacity of 30 MW, and operated since 2017. Japan has 4 floating turbines with a combined 16 MW capacity.
Wikipedia also has an entry for Hywind Scotland, which starts with this sentence.
Hywind Scotland is the world’s first commercial wind farm using floating wind turbines, situated 29 kilometres (18 mi) off Peterhead, Scotland. The farm has five 6 MW Hywind floating turbines with a total capacity of 30 MW. It is operated by Hywind (Scotland) Limited, a joint venture of Equinor (75%) and Masdar (25%)
Wikipedia, also says this about the performance of Hywind Scotland.
In its first two years of operation the facility has averaged a capacity factor in excess of 50%.
That is good performance for a wind farm.
Hywind
There is more about Hywind on this page of the Equinor web site, which is entitled How Hywind Works.
This is the opening paragraph.
Hywind is a floating wind turbine design based on a single floating cylindrical spar buoy moored by cables or chains to the sea bed. Its substructure is ballasted so that the entire construction floats upright. Hywind combines familiar technologies from the offshore and wind power industries into a new design.
I’ve also found this promotional video on the Equinor web site.
Note that Statoil; the Norwegian government’s state-owned oil company, was renamed Equinor in 2018.
Balaena Structures
In the early 1970s, I did a lot of work for a company called Time Sharing Ltd.
At one point, I ended up doing work for a company in Cambridge started by a couple of engineering professors at the University, which was called Balaena Structures.
They had designed a reusable oil platform, that was built horizontally and then floated out and turned vertically. They couldn’t work out how to do this and I built a mathematical model, which showed how it could be done.
This is said about how the Hywind turbines are fabricated.
Onshore assembly reduces time and risk of offshore operations. The substructures for Hywind Scotland were transported in a horizontal position to the onshore assembly site at Stord on the west coast of Norway. There, the giant spar-structures were filled with close to 8000 tonnes of seawater to make them stay upright. Finally, they were filled with around 5500 tonnes of solid ballast while pumping out approximately 5000 tonnes of seawater to maintain draft.
It sounds like Statoil and Equinor have followed the line of thinking, that I pursued with the Cambridge team.
My simulations of oil platforms, involved much larger structures and they had some other unique features, which I’m not going to put here, as someone might give me a nice sum for the information.
Sadly, in the end Balaena Structures failed.
I actually proposed using a Balaena as a wind power platform in Could a Balaena-Like Structure Be Used As a Wind Power Platform?, which I wrote in 2011.
I believe that their designs could have transformed the offshore oil industry and could have been used to control the Deepwater Horizon accident. I talked about this in The Balaena Lives, which again is from 2011.
Conclusion
It is my view, that floating wind farms are the future.
But then I’ve done the mathematics of these structures!
Did Boris’s advisors, as I doubt he knows the mathematics of oblique cylinders and how to solve simultaneous differential equations, do the mathematics or just read the brochures?
I will predict, that today’s structures will look primitive to some of those developed before 2030.
Is Trump’s Recovery From The The Covids Down To His Mother?
Donald Trump’s mother was born Mary Anne MacLeod at Tong on the Isle of Lewis in Scotland.
This Google Map shows the position of Tong to the island’s capital of Stornoway.
This is Wikipedia’s introduction to the village.
Tong is a village on the Isle of Lewis, Scotland, 4 miles (6 kilometres) northeast of the main town of Stornoway on the B895 road to Back and Tolsta. The population of the village is 527 (2001 census). Fishing forms part of the local economy.
Families probably have to have granite in their genes to survive in places like that for decades.
By reputation, Highlanders are not wimps.
I have just looked up the rate of the covids in the Highlands.
The latest figure of lab-confirmed cases is 185.7 per 100,000 of the population, which compares to 617 for the whole of Scotland and 1952.4 for Manchester.
Is there something in Highland genes, that resists the covids?
Ulstein Designs Hydrogen Powered Wind Turbine Installation Vessel
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on 4c Offshore.
This is the introductory paragraphs.
Ulstein has revealed its second hydrogen hybrid design for the offshore wind industry, the ULSTEIN J102 zero emission wind turbine installation vessel (WTIV). The shipbuilders claim the vessel can operate 75% of the time in zero emission mode. Using readily available technology, the additional cost is limited to less than 5% of the total CAPEX.
Most new jack-up designs are featuring a battery hybrid system in addition to diesel gen sets, with a future option for hydrogen powered fuel cell system. Ulstein stated that the down side of a high-power battery energy storage system (BESS) is its heavy weight and cost.
The article shows how hydrogen could be the power source for large specialist equipment.
Ulstein are a Norwegian company.
A First Ride On A Class 710 Train Between Upminster And Romford
This morning I went to Upminster and took the Class 710 train to Romford and back.
All went well and what a difference from yesterday, which I wrote about in A Last Ride On A Class 315 Train Between Upminster And Romford?
These are my thoughts.
Capacity Improvement
These pictures show the interiors of the Class 710 train and the Class 315 train.
It looks like many more passengers can be squeezed into the Class 710 train, than the Class 315 train.
According to Wikipedia the Class 710 train can hold 189 seated and 489 standing passengers, whilst the Class 315 train has 318 seats.
Ride Improvement
I travelled along the route with a Transport for London engineer, who worked on the Crossrail trains.
We both felt the ride was a large improvement and we both felt that it Network Rail worked a bit of magic on the track, it would be a very good train service.
Could Four Trains Per Hour Be Possible?
My travelling companion had worked on the Docklands Light Railway, and we both felt that with a degree of automation, an increased frequency would be possible.
Consider.
- There is only one train on the line at any one time.
- No other trains use the line.
- The route is under 3.5 miles long.
- The acceleration and deceleration of the new trains is superior to those of the Class 315 trains.
- Do the Class 710 trains employ regenerative braking to battery technology?
- The current operating speed is just 30 mph.
- I’m sure Network Rail could improve the operating speed.
- My travelling companion told me, that Crossrail had successfully tested the automated auto-reverse feature on the Class 345 trains
All these points convince me, that, track improvements and simple automation, much less sophisticated, than that of the Victoria Line or the Docklands Light Railway, could run the service at a frequency of four trains per hour (tph).
There is one problem though.
This article on Time 107.5, is entitled New Train To Begin Running Between Romford And Upminster.
This is an extract.
From today, the new Overground train which has changes to certain features, will be implemented.
The key changes include a different colour at the front which has changed from yellow to orange.
Different LED lights have also been fitted to the train.
The new trains are also quieter so may sound different to the older trains.
As a result, Network Rail and Transport for London are reminding pedestrians using level crossings along the route to stay safe.
Network Rail and Transport for London seem to be worried about pedestrians on the level crossings.
I would think, it prudent, that before line speeds and the frequency of the service are increased, there should be a thorough period of testing to see how pedestrians cope with the new trains, at the level crossings.
What methods of automation could be used?
Borrow From Dear Old Vicky
The Victoria Line (aka Dear Old Vicky!) opened in 1968 and runs using a fully-automated system, at frequencies of up to 36 tph.
Under Service And Rolling Stock, in the Wikipedia entry for the Victoria Line, there is this description of the original automation system.
On opening, the line was equipped with a fixed-block Automatic Train Operation system (ATO). The train operator closed the train doors and pressed a pair of “start” buttons and, if the way ahead was clear, the ATO drives the train at a safe speed to the next station. At any point, the driver could switch to manual control if the ATO failed. The system, which operated until 2012, made the Victoria line the world’s first full-scale automatic railway.
The Victoria line runs faster trains than other Underground lines because it has fewer stops, ATO running and modern design. Train speeds can reach up to 50 miles per hour (80 km/h).
Note.
- The original ATO system worked for over forty years.
- The method of operation seemed to be very safe,
- But most remarkably, the electronics that controlled the trains, were 1960s technology and contained a lot of thermionic valves and relays
What would 50 mph running do for timings between Romford and Upminster?
By training I am a Control Engineer, and although, I’ve never worked on large-scale automation systems, I have worked with lots of people who have and firmly believe that a simple system based on Dear Old Vicky’s original design would work.
What sort of times could be achieved between Romford and Upminster?
- The route can be considered to be two legs; Romford and Emerson Park and Emerson Park and Upminster, both of which are about 1.75 miles long.
- The fastest way in a train between too stations, is to accelerate to cruising speed, cruise at that speed and then time the deceleration, so you stop neatly in the station.
- The Class 710 trains probably accelerate and decelerate at around 1 m/sec/sec.
- The acceleration and deceleration section of each leg will take 22.2 seconds and during that time the train will travel 0.15 miles.
- So that means the train will cruise at 50 mph for 1.45 miles, which will take 104 seconds.
- The two legs of the journey will take around 150 second or 2.5 minutes.
The time for a round trip from Romford to Upminster can now be calculated,
- Four legs between station 4 x 2.5 = 10 mins
- Two stops Emerson Park 2 x 1 mins = 2 mins
- One stop at Romford 2 mins = 2 mins
- One stop at Upminster 2 mins = 2 mins
Note.
- This is a total of 16 minutes
- The longer stops at Romford and Upminster are needed for the driver to change ends.
- I have repeated the calculations for a 60 mph cruise and it saves just 40 seconds.
But I do feel that improving the method of operation could allow four tph.
The Driver Could Control The Train From One End
Consider.
- Each cab could have a video screen showing the view from the other cab.
- There could also be video screens on the platforms giving detailed views of the train in a station, as there are on many platforms now!
Would these and perhaps extra automation allow the driver to control the train from one cab, as it shuttled back and forth?
I suspect it would be cab at the Upminster end, as the platform is longer at Romford.
I believe that it would be possible and should allow stops of a minute at the two termini, as the driver wouldn’t be changing ends.
One minute stops would reduce the round-trip time to fourteen minutes and allow four tph.
Full Automation With The Driver In Control
The Docklands Light Railway is fully automated, so why not use a similar system on the Romford and Upminster Line?
But instead of having the system controlled by an operator in a remote signalling centre, the driver on the single train on the route is in control of it all.
The automation would enable fast stops and the driver would not have to change ends.
This would mean that four tph would be able to run at all times.
The System Would Self-Regulate
With public transport, things do go wrong.
Supposing someone turned up in a wheel-chair and it took five minutes to load them onto the train, so it left late.
This would mean that the train would be running late for the rest of the day, unless it was decided to wait for a few minutes, so it had the time of the following service.
After the wait, all trains would be on time.
Put Two Drivers On The Train
This would also be possible.
The train would have a driver in each cab.
- The driver in the cab at the Romford end of the train would drive the train to Romford.
- The driver in the cab at the Upminster end of the train would drive the train to Upminster.
- At each terminus, they would swap over control, just as the two pilots do in an airliner.
There would probably need to be a simple interlock, so that only one driver could drive the train at the same time.
This should give the required four tph, as fast stops could be performed at all stations.
Using two drivers could be the ideal way to test out four tph and see whether it attracted more passengers.
Conclusion
The Romford and Upminster route has been markedly improved with the new Class 710 train.
I believe, that it is now possible to run four tph on this route, with some moderate extra expenditure or using two drivers.
The Anonymous Widower 