The Future Of The Class 387 And Class 379 Trains
This post is to try to get some logic into everybody’s comments on UK’s First 100mph Battery-Diesel Hybrid Train Enters Passenger Service, which are about the Class 379 trains.
Here are my thoughts about the current situation.
Class 379 Trains
I regularly use Hackney Downs and Liverpool Street stations.
A few months ago, you would see Class 379 trains on services to Cambridge and Hertford North.
At the present time, you rarely see them, as these services now seem to be run by new Class 720 trains, with the Stansted services being run by Class 745 trains.
There are also articles like this one on Rail Technology Magazine, which is entitled Greater Anglia’s New Rolling Stock Helps To Drive Record Autumn Results.
These are the first three paragraphs.
Greater Anglia’s new rolling stock has helped drive the operators record-beating autumn performance results over the challenging autumn months.
During autumn 2021 Greater Anglia recorded an overall punctuality score of 94.48% from 19th September 2021 – 8th January 2022.
This was the best autumn performance ever recorded by the train company.
It would appear that Greater Anglia are pleased with their new stock, which surely means that the thirty Class 379 trains can be moved on, stored or converted to battery-electric operation.
c2c’s Class 387 Trains
c2c has six Class 387 trains, which are similar to the Class 379 trains.
Currently, because of cracks in Class 800 trains, three of them are on loan to GWR.
But in the next year or so, these six trains will be moved on or stored as c2c have ordered twelve Class 720 trains to replace the Class 387 trains.
Southern’s Class 387 Trains
Southern has twenty-seven Class 387 trains for the Gatwick Express, of which three are used by Great Northern, who are a sister company of Southern, and six are on loan to GWR
Great Northern’s Class 387 Trains
Great Northern has twenty-nine Class 387 trains of its own and three on loan from Southern.
These trains are used mainly on Cambridge, Ely and Kings Lynn services out of King’s Cross.
Great Western Railway (GWR)’s Class 387 Trains
Great Western Railway has forty-five Class 387 trains of its own, three on loan from c2c and six on loan from Southern.
The Battery-Electric Class 379 Train
I rode this prototype train in 2015.
I think it is reasonable to assume, that as battery technology has improved in the seven years since I rode this train, that converting Class 379 trains to battery-electric operation would not be a challenging project.
Creating A Battery-Electric Class 387 Train
If the Class 387 train is as internally similar to the Class 379 train as it outwardly looks, I couldn’t believe that converting them to battery-electric operation would be that difficult.
Conclusion
I feel the way to proceed is to create a small fleet of both battery-electric Class 379 and Class 387 trains and assess their performance, reliability and customer acceptance.
Purfleet Station – 19th August 2021
According to this article on Ian Visits, Purfleet station is going to be transformed and renamed Purfleet-on-Thames station.
- The station will be moved Northwards
- 2850 homes will be built in the local area.
- The current level crossing will be replaced by a bridge.
So I went to the station, took a look and took these pictures.
Note.
- The level crossing is at the Southern end of the station.
- Whilst I was there, I didn’t see anybody use the footbridge.
- Everybody used the level crossing.
- The bus stops could be better placed.
But the station building and the platforms weren’t in the worst of conditions.
This Google Map shows Purfleet station.
Note.
- It would appear that the only building in the way of moving the road to the North would be the station ticket office.
- As my pictures show the platforms are long and could probably be extended at the Northern end.
The article on Ian Visits has a good map of the area, showing the development and the new road layout.
It would be good if building bridges to replace level crossings was always as easy as this.
Gatwick Rail Service Could Link Far Reaches Of The South East
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Surrey Live.
Despite being reported on Surrey Live and the fact that Gatwick is in Sussex, the plan has been proposed by Kent County Council’s Rail Project Manager.
The plan would extend the existing Great Western railway line – which runs from Reading to Gatwick via Redhill – to mid and east Kent.
The article suggests the service could go between Reading and Canterbury West stations.
This table sums up the connectivity.
- Reading – West and South West England, Wales, Oxford, Hereford and Worcester and the West Midlands – Future – East West Rail
- Guildford – Portsmouth Direct Line
- Dorking – Mole Valley Line
- Redhill – Brighton Main Line
- Gatwick Airport – Brighton Main Line
- Tonbridge – South Eastern Main Line
- Ashford International – Amsterdam, Brussels and Paris – Future – Bordeaux, Cologne, Frankfurt and Geneva
I have a few thoughts.
The Terminal Stations
The suitability of the two proposed terminals can be summed up.
- Reading has been designed as a terminal station, with five bay platforms, three of which can be used by Gatwick services.
- Canterbury West has not been designed as a terminal station and has no bay platforms.
Perhaps Ashford International station would be a better Eastern terminal?
- It has Eurostar services.
- Trains can terminate in Platform 1 and go to Tonbridge.
- It has lots of car parking.
Dover Priority and Ramsgate could also be possibilities as they have terminal platforms.
Connecting At Gatwick Airport
It looks like a combined service might get complicated in the Redhill/Gatwick area.
- Trains between Reading and Gatwick go via Redhill station, where they reverse.
- There is no direct route between Tonbridge and Gatwick, so trains will probably have to reverse at Redhill, to go between Tonbridge and Gatwick.
Would a service between Reading and Ashford, that reversed twice at Redhill and once at Gatwick, be rather tricky to operate? Or even unpopular with passengers?
This Google Map shows Redhill station and the lines leading South from the station.
Note.
- Redhill station at the top of the map.
- The Brighton Main Line running North-South in the middle of the map.
- The North Downs Line to Guildford and Reading curving West from the station.
- The Redhill and Tonbridge Line to Tonbridge and Ashford leaving the map in the South-East corner.
I suspect that adding extra tracks in a very crowded area will be very difficult.
What Do The Timings Show?
A quick calculation, which is based on current timings, can give a journey time for between Ashford and Gatwick Airport.
- Ashford and Tonbridge – Southeastern timing – 38 minutes
- Tonbridge and Redhill – Southern timing – 35 minutes
- Reverse at Redhill – GWR timing – 4 minutes
- Redhill and Gatwick – GWR timing – 8 minutes
This gives a total of eighty-five minutes.
- Google says that you can drive it in sixty-three minutes.
- If you took the train today, between Ashford International and Gatwick Airport stations, the fastest rail journey is around 110 minutes with a change at St. Pancras International.
It does look though that a faster train between Kent and Gatwick Airport could be competitive, as going via London certainly isn’t!
Could Simplification And Automation Provide A Solution?
Consider.
- The Ashford International and Tonbridge timing, that I have used includes five stops.
- The Tonbridge and Redhill timing, that I have used includes five stops.
- How much time would be saved by only stopping at Tonbridge between Ashford International and Gatwick?
- Could automation handle a fast reverse at Redhill, where passengers couldn’t board or leave the train?
- Would a driver in each cab, allow the reverses to be done faster?
Trains going between Reading and Ashford International, would call at the following stations between Guildford and Tonbridge.
- Dorking Deepdene
- Reigate
- Redhill
- Gatwick Airport
- Redhill – A quick Touch-And-Go.
- Tonbridge
- Paddock Wood
If two minutes a stop could be saved at each of the nine omitted stops and at each reverse, this would save twenty minutes East of Gatwick, which would give the following timings.
- Gatwick and Tonbridge – 27 minutes
- Gatwick and Ashford International – 65 minutes
Timings would be compatible with driving.
West of Gatwick, the service would be as the current GWR service.
- After arriving at Gatwick from Ashford, the train would reverse.
- En route it would reverse at Redhill, to continue to Reading.
Passengers wanting to go between say Tonbridge and Redhill, would use this reverse at Redhill to join and leave the train.
It would be an unusual way to operate a train service, but I feel it could be made to work, especially with the right automation and/or a second driver.
Trains For The Service
The service can be split into various legs between Ashford and Reading.
- Ashford and Tonbridge – Electrified – 26.5 miles – 38 minutes
- Tonbridge and Redhill – Electrified – 20 miles – 35 minutes
- Redhill and Gatwick – Electrified – 7 miles – 8 minutes
- Gatwick and Redhill – Electrified – 7 miles – 8 minutes
- Redhill and Reigate – Electrified – 2 miles – 4 minutes
- Reigate and Shalford Junction – Not Electrified – 17 miles – 20 minutes
- Shalford Junction and North Camp – Electrified – 9 miles – 11 minutes
- North Camp and Wokingham – Not Electrified – 11 miles – 14 minutes
- Wokingham and Reading – Electrified – 7 miles and 9 minutes
Note.
- Ashford, Tonbridge, Redhill, Gatwick, Guildford, Wokingham and Reading are all fully-electrified main line stations.
- Most of the route and the two ends are electrified.
- All electrification is 750 VDC third rail.
- All sections without electrification are less than twenty miles.
This route would surely be ideal for a battery electric train.
As both the Heathrow and Gatwick Express services are run using Class 387 trains and the Stansted Express has used Class 379 trains for the last few years, similar trains to these might be an ideal choice, if they could be fitted with battery power and the ability to use 750 VDC third-rail electrification.
The facts seem to be on the side of this service.
- There are spare Class 387 trains and some more will be released by c2c in the next few years.
- Greater Anglia will be replacing their Class 379 trains with new Class 745 trains.
- A Class 379 train was used to test the concept of battery electric trains.
- Both class of trains could be fitted with third-rail gear.
Either of these trains could be used for the service.
As they are 100 or 110 mph trains with good acceleration, they might even save a few minutes on the journey.
Infrastructure Changes
I suspect they could be minimal, once it was worked out how to handle the three reverses in the Gatwick and Redhill area.
Conclusion
I think it would be a feasible plan to run an Ashford and Reading service via Gatwick.
I would also decarbonise the route at the same time, as it must be one of the easiest routes in the country to run using battery electric trains.
- There is electrification at both ends and in the middle.
- The longest stretch of track without electrification is just seventeen miles.
- All charging could be done using existing electrification.
- There are platforms at both ends, where trains can get a full charge.
- There are trains available, that are suitable for conversion to battery trains for the route.
- No extra infrastructure would be needed.
- Battery electric trains would allow extension of the route to Oxford in the West.
How many extra passengers would be persuaded to take the train to Gatwick, by the novelty of a battery electric Aurport Express?
Marketing men and women would love the last point!
Will A Rail Link Be Built Between Pitsea And Ingatestone?
In Issue 903 of Rail Magazine, there is a long article, which is entitled Felixstowe: Is 47 Trains A Day Achievable?.
The article details a large number of improvements that could be carried out to attain this frequency.
This is an interesting paragraph.
If anything. long-term plans could entail the building of a new rail link between Pitsea and Ingatestone, so that London Gateway traffic can run via Ipswich instead of Stratford.
So could a rail link between Pitsea and Ingatestone stations be built and how would it be used?
The Route
If you look at a map, that shows Pitsea and Chelmsford, you’ll notice that the dual-carriageway A130 links the two places.
- At the Chelmsford end it joins the A12 at junction 17.
- At the Pitsea end it joins the A13 to the East of the town.
- Sections of the road appear to have three-lane carriageways.
- Much of the road has been improved in recent years.
I feel a lot of the route of the rail link could follow the A130, with the rail link running down the Western side of the road.
Use Of The Shenfield-Southend Line
The Shenfield-Southend Line could be used for part of the route.
- It already connects to the Great Eastern Main Line (GEML) at Shenfield, though a flying junction.
- There is no connection between the Shenfield-Southend Line and the GEML to Chelmsford and Ipswich.
- The Shenfield-Southend Line crosses the A130 in an area of farmland.
Between Shenfield and the A130 are two important stations Billericay and Wickford.
The Connection At Shenfield
This Google Map shows the junction between the GEML and the Shenfield-Southend Line.
Note.
- Shenfield station is in the South-West corner of the map.
- The GEML goes straight in a North-Easterly direction to Ingatestone and Chelmsford.
- Ingatestone and Shenfield stations are about 3.5 miles apart.
- The Shenfield-Southend Line goes off to the East and connects to the GEML with a flying junction.
There would appear to be space to convert the flying junction into a full triangular junction by building chords, that allow access between the Shenfield-Southend Line and the GEML to Chelmsford.
Turning South At The A130
This Google Map shows where the Shenfield-Southend Line crosses the A130.
Note.
- The two major roads; the A130 and the A127 are clearly labelled.
- The Shenfield-Southend Line crosses the A130 from North-West to East.
- Billericay and Shenfield are to the North-West.
- Southend is to the East.
It looks like there is sufficient space to create a junction, which would allow trains to take a new rail line to and from the South, built alongside the A130.
The Connection At Pitsea Station
This Google Map shows the Southern section of the A130 that connects to the A13.
Note.
- Pitsea station is at the Southern side of the map.
- The A130 weaves its way North-South down the Eastern side of the map.
- The rail link could follow the A130.
The Google Map shows Pitsea station, the A13 and its junction with the A130.
Note.
- The A13 going across the Northern side of the map.
- The A130 going down the Eastern side of the map.
- Pitsea station in the middle of the Western side of the map.
- The c2c railway between Pitsea and Southend Central stations going East from Pitsea station and passing to the South of St. Margaret’s Church.
It appears to me, that there would be enough space to build a full triangular junction between the rail link and the c2c railway.
A full triangular junction would enable trains to go between Chelmsford and all stations as far as Shoeburyness.
A Few Questions
These are a few questions.
Will Passenger Trains Use The Rail Link?
Consider.
- It would make it possible to create a direct train service that connected all the major towns in Essex; Colchester, Chelmsford and Southend.
- Chelmsford is the county town of Essex.
- Southend Central station has two West-facing bay platforms.
- Colchester station has a South-facing bay platform.
I think that the route must be built to perhaps allow an hourly CrossEssex service in both directions, at some date in the future.
Would There Be Any Stations On The Rail Link?
The route goes through Billericay and Wickford stations and also has a connection to the Crouch Valley Line.
How Long Is The Rail Link?
I estimate, it’s just under seventeen miles.
How Long Will Freight Trains Take Between Pitsea And Ingatestone?
The Felixstowe Branch is about twenty miles long and trains take a few minutes over the hour.
Will The Rail Link Be Single Or Double Track?
Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, there are still about a dozen trains going in and out of London Gateway on a typical day.
- This would be a train every ninety minutes in both directions on the rail link if they were all using it.
- London Gateway will expand.
- A passenger service on the rail link in the future, is a possibility.
- The Shenfield-Southend Line is double-track.
I feel that a single track railway would be short on capacity, so for preference, I’d build a double-track railway.
Will The Rail Link Be Electrified?
Consider.
- All passenger trains run by Greater Anglia and c2c to and from Southend are electric.
- Essex is a county where all rail lines are electrified, except for the spur that leads into London Gateway.
- The GEML and the lines to Southend have recently updated electrification.
- Freight trains can be hauled on the GEML by electric or bi-mode locomotives.
- Te section between the GEML and the A130 is already electrified.
It would be logical that the rail link should be electrified.
Thoughts About Capacity
Although a rai link between Pitsea and Ingatestone may be feasible, it doesn’t mean that it will be built.
- Will there be enough capacity across the Midlands or on the various routes to the North?
- Greater Anglia have ambitions and the trains to run more services.
- Would digital signalling on the GEML create extra capacity?
Extra Infrastructure
Royal Mint Gardens
Royal Mint Gardens is a housing development to the East of Fenchurch Street and Tower Gateway stations.
These are a few pictures of the development.
But this doesn’t tell the full story.
This Google Map shows the position of the development.
Note.
- Fenchurch Street station is towards the top-left corner of the map.
- The c2c tracks running to the East from Fencurch Street station.
- Tower Gateway DLR station is just to the right of the centre, just above the green space.
- The tracks of the Docklands Light Railway running to the East from Tower Gateway DLR station.
The three concrete towers at the right of the map, lying to the South of the railway tracks, are the three structural towers of Royal Mint Gardens.
This Google Map shows a close up of Royal Mint Gardens.
Note how the Docklands Light Railway splits into two to the East of the development.
- The Northern pair of tracks skirt the development to the North to go to Tower Gatewat DLR station.
- The Southern pair of tracks go underneath the development to go to Bank DLR station.
The new development has put the Bank branch in a concrete tunnel.
So in an area of the world, where land is a very expensive commodity, this area is being used twice at the same time.
Royal Mint Gardens On The BBC
BBC London television has been covering various aspects of the building of Royal Mint Gadens in local news for most of the day.
The developer, the architect, Network Rail and the reporter, all seemed very positive about what is being created.
The architect felt up to 250,000 houses could be created on similar sites across London.
How many houses could be built over rail lines in the rest of the UK?
Conclusion
Building over rail lines like this, will increasingly be seen as a way of adding new housing in densely populated cities.
The New Escalators At Limehouse Station
Limehouse station now has a smart pair of escalators on the Westbound platform.
Are escalators going to be added to the Eastbound platform and the c2c platforms?
How Long Will It Take Bombardier To Fulfil Their Aventra Orders?
I was reading this article in The Guardian, which is entitled Full speed ahead for train builders as minister pulls plug on electrification, when I found this useful nugget of information, from the General Manager of Bombardier’s Derby plant.
Building trains in an “ergonomically correct” fashion, he says, means completing and testing the carriage’s constituent parts, then assembling them, rather than wiring them up afterwards – and also takes the risk away from a production line which boasts a rate of 25 carriages per week.
It sounds like Bombardier’s engineers have been drinking and swapping ideas, with Toyota’s production engineers a few miles down the road at Burnaston.
But even so 25 carriages a week is an impressive figure, as that is almost three Class 345 trains for Crossrail in a week.
Bombardier have not been producing at that rate until now, as if they had, there would be Aventras in sidings all over the place. In The Class 345 Trains Are More Numerous, I described how I saw four yesterday and Transport for London have said they will have they will have eleven in service by September.
But this is all consistent with not going into full production, until you are sure, that you’ve got everything right, as any prudent company would do!
The Trains On Order
Bombardier have the following orders for Aventras.
- Crossrail – Class 345 – 70 x nine-car – 630 cars – To be delivered in 2015-2018
- London Overground – Class 710 – 45 x four-car – 180 cars – To be delivered in 2017-2018
- Greater Anglia – Class 720 – 89 x five-car – 445 cars – To be delivered in 2018-2020
- Greater Anglia – Class 720 – 22 x ten-car – 220 cars – To be delivered in 2018-2020
- South Western Railways – Class xxx – 30 x five-car – 150 cars – To be delivered in 2019-2020
- South Western Railways – Class xxx – 60 x ten-car – 600 cars – – To be delivered in 2019-2020
- West Midlands Trains – Class xxx – 36 x three-car – 108 cars – To be delivered from 2020
- West Midlands Trains – Class xxx – 45 x five-car – 225 cars – To be delivered from 2021
- c2c – Class xxx – 10 x six-car – 60 cars – To be delivered from 2021
This gives a total of 2,618 cars to be built.
The Building Schedule
Orders 1 and 2 are both directly or indirectly for Transport for London, with Wikipedia stating that the Class 710 trains for the Lea Valley Lines are being stabled at Ilford TMD, where the current Class 345 trains are also stabled, whilst they are being tested between Liverpool Street and |Shenfield stations.
I suspect that this close relationship between the orders means that Bombardier and Transport for London have agreed a delivery schedule, that brings in trains as they are needed. There’s not much point in building Class 345 trains for Crossrail, when some won’t be needed until 2019, if there is a more urgent need for Class 710 trains for the Overground.
To improve matters for Bombardier, Orders 3 and 4 for Greater Anglia, will probably be stabled in part at Ilford TMD.
Bombardier have not only got four substantial initial orders, but because they can all be introduced into service from Ilford TMD, they must have a tremendous advantage in terms of testing, introduction into service, manpower and costs.
So it looks to me that the two London orders will be built first, followed by the Greater Anglia and then the South Western Railways.
The London orders total 810 cars, which would take 32 weeks using Bombardier’s figure of 25 cars per week in The Guardian.
But assuming they started full production on the 1st of August, that gives them seventy-two weeks until the end of 2018, which gives a equired production rate of under twelve cars a week.
Surely, given their past history of building around a couple of thousand Electrostar cars, that must be achievable. Especially, as the modular structure of the Aventra, which has been developed with suppliers, must make building quicker.
The Greater Anglia and South Western Railways orders, which total 1,415 cars, would need to be built in 2019-2020 or lets say a hundred weeks.
So the build rate would be 14 cars a week, which is well below Bombardier’s figure.
The Body Shells
It should also be stated that Bombardier make their body shells at Derby, whereas Hitachi make their’s in Japan and ship them to Newton Aycliffe. This must ease having a high production rate for Bombardier, as for this you must have timely and reliable deliveries.
The Class 345 and 710 trains seem to have different car lengths, so it would appear that their production of body shells is flexible.
Little can be discerned about the production process from the Internet, as articles like this one on Global Rail News, which is entitled Bombardier completes first Crossrail body shell, are short on production details.
If they have a capacity to produce twenty-five body shells a week, I don’t believe that this can be done without the use of sophisticated designs assisted by large amounts of automation, as used in most car and van body production.
I have found this picture of a number of Aventra car body sides on the Internet.
Note the double-skinned nature of the body sides, with reinforcing ribs inside, which must have great strength, light weight and a minimum number of components. I have read somewhere, that Bombardier are extruding aluminium for body components.
All of the holes could then be automatically cut by robots.
The joys of modern manufacturing!
Final Assembley
Modern manufacturing methods, as employed by car companies for years doesn’t mean you have to produce a sequence of identical vehicles on the line. Computer systems make sure all the components to build each car arrive at the right time.
A Class 345 train might have four or five different types of car, so similar methods would be used to speed production of the individual cars.
West Midlands Trains
Abellio, who own Greater Anglia, have decided they want to use Aventras on their new West Midlands Trains franchise.
According to Wikipedia, the new franchise is proposing to introduce the following trains
- 333 new Aventra carriages in three and five-car trains.
- 80 new CAF Civity carriages in two and four-car trains.
Some of the trains are direct replacements for other trains.
- The 36 x three-car Aventras will replace the 26 x three-car Class 323 trains.
- The CAF Civity trains will replace various diesel multiple units around Birmingham.
In some ways the puzzle is that there are 29 x five-car Aventras on order for electrified suburban lines.
Adding up the current and future number of electrified carriages on Birmingham suburban routes, shows that the number of carriages to be used will increase by three times.
New electrification is on the way.
- Chase Line to Rugeley Trent Valley.
- Cross-City Line to Bromsgrove.
But these short schemes won’t need all those trains, unless West Midlands Trains are going to run ten-car trains across Birmingham.
But possibilities exist.
- Electrification further towards places like Nuneaton and Worcester.
- Electrification of the Camp Hill Line across the City Centre.
- Aventras will be using batteries to reach places without electrification.
- Some Aventras could be bi-mode. I discuss the concept of a bi-mode Aventra in Is A Bi-Mode Aventra A Silly Idea?.
All will become clear in the next couple of years.
The West Midlands Trains orders for Aventras total 333 new carriages, which will all be pretty similar to previous orders, except in details like car length, number of cars, top speed and the interiors.
At Bombardier’s quoted production rate of 25 cars per week,l that means they would take jus fourteen weeks to build them, after the design was finalised.
That sounds unbelievable!
c2c
This order is for just sixty carriages, which will be delivered as six x ten-car trains.
This is an extract from c2c’s Press Release.
The Aventra is one of the fastest-selling trains in the UK rail industry, and these new trains will be manufactured at Bombardier’s factory in Derby. Each new train, which will operate in a fixed set of 10-carriages, will include over 900 seats, plus air-conditioning, wifi, plug sockets and three toilets onboard. Each new carriage is larger and contains more seats than on c2c’s current trains, so each 10-carriage new train provides capacity for 15% more passengers onboard compared to a current 12-carriage c2c train.
So three x four-car trains working as a twelve-car train are replaced by one ten-car train, which results in.
- A modern instead of a twenty-year-old train.
- 15% more capacity.
- Wi-fi and plug sockets.
- Better passenger experience.
- Two cabs instead of six.
- Fixed-formation trains don’t have end gangways.
- Twenty bogies instead of twenty-four.
Revenue per train will surely increase, but electricity and maintenance costs will also decrease.
So the accountants get a double dose of pleasure!
c2c also hint that more new trains are on thew way.
But as they are also reported to have extended the lease on their Class 387 trains, they have excellent cover whilst waiting for delivery of new Aventras.
Currently, they have the equivalent of 25 x twelve-car trains with a few spares.
So a complete train replacement if they like the Aventras, will probably be something like another twenty to thirty trains.
This would seem to be a very low-risk plan!
The New South Eastern Franchise
The needs of the current South Eastern and West Midlands franchises are surprisingly similar.
- High speed running on HS1 and the West Coast Main Line.
- Suburban services in city networks; London and Birmingham.
- A few short branch lines.
- Some lines without electrification.
- An ageing fleet without wi-fi.
So could we be seeing a mass fleet replacement with Aventras, as in West Midlands Trains.
Note that one of the bidders for this franchise is the same consortium of Abellio, East Japan Railway Company and Mitsui, who successfully bid for West Midlands Trains.
Abellio bought a large number of Aventras for Greater Anglia and helped develop battery power for the trains.
So could we be seeing a large number of Aventras added to the fleet for the South Eastern franchise?
Currently, the franchise runs 824 Electrostar and 674 Networker carriages.
To replace the Networkers would be 27 weeks of production at Bombardier’s rate of 25 carriages a day.
The South Eastern franchise also needs more high speed trains for HS1. I can’t believe that Bombardier couldn’t achieve a top speed of 140 mph with an Aventra. They probably will have a solution for covering the line between Ashford and Hastings. My money’s is on some form of energy storage.
Conclusion
Bombardier would not quote the capability of being able to make 25 trains per week to a newspaper like the Guardian, if they didn’t know it was possible.
But to meet the deliveries needed by the four initial customers, probably needs about half the quoted production rate, which is the sort of conservative thinking I like.
This gives Bombardier the float to sort out production problems or non-delivery of sub-assemblies outside of their control.
But it would also give them the capacity to fit in other orders. Suppose Crossrail decided to extend to Gravesend or Southend and needed another five Class 345 trains, then in theory, that is only two days production, provided the suppliers can deliver.
The UK’s railways are going to be full of Aventras.