Could London And Central Scotland Air Passengers Be Persuaded To Use The Trains?
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Edinburgh?
Wikipedia gives these figures for 2024 for passengers from Edinburgh to London
- London City – 334,873
- London Gatwick – 476,152
- London Heathrow – 1,148,634
- London Luton – 338, 729
- London Stansted – 693,953
This gives a total of 2,992,341.
As Wikipedia doesn’t give complete figures for from London to Edinburgh, for the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume they are the same.
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Glasgow?
Wikipedia gives these figures for 2024 for passengers from Glasgow to London
- London City – 208,405
- London Gatwick – 456,002
- London Heathrow – 954,027
- London Luton – 255,095
- London Stansted – 225,110
This gives a total of 2,098,639.
As Wikipedia doesn’t give complete figures for from London to Glasgow, for the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume they are the same.
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
Adding the two figures gives 5,090,980. in both directions.
Which is an average of 97,903 per week or 13,948 per day.
How Many Train Seats Run Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
These figures are for Friday the 1st of August.
- Aventi West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 5 x 9-car Class 390 train – 2,345 seats
- Aventi West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 16 x 11-car Class 390 train – 6,677 seats
- LNER – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh – 26 x 9-car Class 801 train – 15,886 seats
- Lumo – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh – 5 x 5-car Class 803 train – 2,010 seats
Note.
- All services are all-electric.
- All services are fairly new or have recently been refurbished,
This gives a total of 26,918 train seats.
Adding Lumo’s Service To Glasgow
In Lumo Will Extend Its King’s Cross And Edinburgh Service To Glasgow, I suggested that the Glasgow service would be run as follows from December 2025.
- Two existing Lumo services will leave London as pairs of five-car trains.
- The pairs will split at Edinburgh.
- The leading train will go on to Glasgow Queen Street calling at Edinburgh Haymarket and Falkirk High stations.
- The trailing train will return to London King’s Cross.
- At the end of the day, the two trains in Glasgow will do a fast run back to London King’s Cross as a pair of 5-car trains.
This will add 804 seats per day between London and Glasgow Queen Street in both directions.
The daily total would now total 27,722 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
Adding Lumo’s Service To Stirling
In Lumo To Expand Scotland’s Rail Network With New London-Stirling Rail Route From Spring 2026, I talk about Lumo’s new service to Stirling.
- There will be five trains per day (tpd) in each direction.
- Lumo’s new route will link London Euston directly to Stirling, also calling at Milton Keynes, Nuneaton, Crewe, Preston, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet (serving Coatbridge), Greenfaulds (serving Cumbernauld) and Larbert.
- The service will use 6-car Class 222 trains, which in the linked post, I estimate will have a similar one-class capacity to the Class 803 trains between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh.
- If the capacity of the two train types is similar, this should give operational advantages and allow some more Class 803 trains to run the Euston and Stirling route.
This second Scottish route will add 2010 train seats per day between London Euston and Stirling in both directions.
The daily total would now total 29,732 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
Could More Capacity Be Added Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
I believe some of the Lumo services between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh could be doubled up to a pair of trains.
There would have to be no platform length issues at London King’s Cross, Stevenage, Newcastle and Morpeth stations.
If three trains could be doubled up, that would add 1,206 train seats per day between London and Edinburgh in both directions.
The daily total would now total 30,938 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
I also suspect, that some of the Stirling services could be doubled up.
Connectivity Of England’s Northern Airports To London And Central Scotland
Birmingham Airport
Consider.
- There are easyJet flights to Edinburgh and Glasgow
- There are 1.5 trains per hour (tph) between Birmingham New Street and Edinburgh.
- There are 6 tpd between Birmingham New Street and Glasgow.
You would make your choice and pay the money.
East Midlands Airport
There are no flights or trains to Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Leeds Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Leeds and Edinburgh
- There is one tpd between Leeds and Glasgow
Could Leeds and Glasgow get better connectivity?
Liverpool Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Liverpool Lime Street and Edinburgh
- There is three tpd between Liverpool Lime Street and Glasgow
The Liverpool area is well connected to Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston stations on the West Coast Main Line for alternative services to Glasgow.
Manchester Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Manchester Airport and Scotland via Manchester Piccadilly and Manchester Oxford Road, which alternates between Edinburgh and Glasgow.
The Manchester area is well connected to Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston stations on the West Coast Main Line for alternative services to Glasgow.
Omio gives this summary of flights between Heathrow and Manchester airports.
Flights from Manchester Airport to London Heathrow Airport depart on average 8 times per day, taking around 1h 6m. Cheap flight tickets for this journey start at £63 but you can travel from only £16 by coach.
Wrightbus and others will be producing mouse-quiet hydrogen-powered coaches in a couple of years. I suspect these will give short flights a good kicking.
Newcastle Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is three tph between Newcastle and Edinburgh with an additional 5 tpd from Lumo.
- There is two tpd between Newcastle and Glasgow.
- There is one tpd between Newcastle and Stirling.
- From December 2025, Lumo will add two tpd from Newcastle to Glasgow and one tpd from Glasgow to Newcastle.
- In Lumo Will Extend Its King’s Cross And Edinburgh Service To Glasgow, I stated that I believe that Lumo’s Glasgow to Newcastle service will be a late evening ten-car train, so travellers can have a long day in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Newcastle and still return to London.
Lumo would appear to fill in the gap between Newcastle and Glasgow.
Google AI gives this summary of flights between Heathrow and Newcastle airports.
There are usually 5-6 direct flights per day between Newcastle and Heathrow airports. These flights are operated by British Airways. The average flight time is around 1 hour and 10 minutes.
Note.
- In 2024, 497, 469 passengers flew between between Heathrow and Newcastle airports, which is an average of 681 passengers in each direction every day.
- This was an increase of 13.6 % on 2023.
- From December Lumo will be running extra London King’s Cross and Newcastle services, with each train having 402 seats.
- The improvements in rail services in and around Newcastle in recent months, will surely bring more passengers to use trains from Newcastle station.
- Will Lumo also target adverts at airline passengers?
London and Newcastle could be another route for mouse-quiet hydrogen-powered coaches.
Conclusion
These numbers summarise my calculations.
- Currently an average of 13,948 passengers per day fly between London and Central Scotland.
- Currently, there are 26,918 train seats available per day between London and Central Scotland.
- In December 2025, Lumo will add another 804 low-cost train seats between London King’s Cross and Glasgow Queen Street.
- In Spring 2026, Lumo will add 2010 low-cost train seats between London Euston and Stirling.
- From Spring 2026, there will be 29,732 train seats available per day between London and Central Scotland.
- This represents a 10 % increase of seats on the trains between London and Central Scotland.
How many passengers, who normally fly, will switch to using the train?
- Lumo may only offer one class, but you get a trolley and can order food from M & S and others to be delivered to your seat.
- Both LNER and Lumo accept dogs. I don’t know about Avanti.
- All services will be all-electric, when Lumo gets its new electric trains for Stirling, in a few years.
- It looks to me like Lumo could be offering a late train back to London from Edinburgh and Glasgow.
- Digital signalling on the East Coast Main Line should speed up services.
If Lumo to Glasgow and Stirling works out, it could also cut the total carbon footprint of travel between London and Central Scotland.
London And Newcastle In A Day By Lumo
On Monday, the weather for yesterday in the North-East seemed set fair, I was able to get tickets on Lumo both ways for a reasonable price and the new Northumberland Line had opened.
So I decided to go for it.
My outward journey was on the 10:45 and the return was on the 17:52, which gave me more than enough time to take a train to Ashington and back.
I took these pictures as I arrived in and changed cmy trains at Newcastle.
Note.
- The weather in Geordieland was gorgeous.
- Is there another station in the UK, with an approach with such a large number of bridges over a large river.
- I took the bridge pictures from the lobby of the train.
- The blue railway bridge is on the East side of the train.
- The modern road bridge is on the West side of the train.
- In The Bridges of Newcastle, there are more pictures of Newcastles’s bridges.
- To change trains, I had to cross from one side of the station to the other on a stiff bridge without lifts.
- The Northumberland Line trains run every thirty minutes.
These are some further thoughts on Newcastle station, which I will write later.
Timings Going North
The train left Kings Cross at 10:45½, which was just thirty seconds late.
It arrived in Newcastle at 13:48, which was four minutes late.
The journey time had been three hours and two and a half minutes.
Timings Going South
The train left Newcastle at 17:52, which was on time.
It arrived in Kings Cross at 21:17, which was thirty-three minutes late.
The thirty-three minute delay, must raise the possibility of delay repay.
It does!
Three Hours London Newcastle?
These timings must raise the possibility of a sub-three hour time. on the train, between London King’s Cross and Newcastle stations.
The digital signalling that is currently being installed, with perhaps a few timetable tweaks should do it for both Lumo and LNER.
Could The Trains Absorb The Airline Passengers?
Consider.
- In 2023, 437,735 passengers flew between London Heathrow and Newcastle airports.
- This is just 1,200 passengers per day.
- A five-car Class 803 train has 403 seats.
It would appear that a few extra trains and some targeted marketing, could convert London and Newcastle into an all-electric train route.
Seats
Train seats are a bone of contention to many rail passengers these days.
I first rode on Lumo to Scotland in 2021 and wrote about it in London To Edinburgh On Lumo, where I was fairly complimentary about the seats.
They certainly are better than some train seats I have ridden in.
Am I Tired Today?
Not particularly! But I wasn’t very energetic during my four hours in the North.
Tickets For Onward Journeys
The main purpose of my trip was to ride the Northumberland Line to Ashington.
I made the mistake of not buying my ticket for the second train in London, as I hadn’t realised that my train from London and the Ashington train used different sides of the station.
- It was a stiff walk for me between trains.
- In order to buy a ticket, you need to pass through the barriers twice to get to the ticket office or a machine.
- There was no ticket facilities on the far side of the station, where the Lumo train arrived.
- The ticket machines didn’t accept contactless cards.
- Information was lacking.
The outcome was that I nearly missed my train to Ashington.
So to be sure of catching your connection, if you are changing trains at Newcastle, make sure you buy your tickets before you leave your first station.
Are LNER Going To Take On The Airlines?
Nine years ago, I wrote Edinburgh – Plane Or Train?, after a trip to Scotland, where I took easyJet up and came back in First Class by train.
- Both trips were about five hours door-to-door.
- The flight was about six quid more,
- But I got free food and drink on the train.
- Security on the plane was a pain.
- I had to take my passport for identification at Stansted.
I haven’t flown internally in Great Britain since, although, I have flown to Belfast.
For shorter flights the market is going towards rail, as these posts seem to suggest.
- 2.7M Tonnes Of Co2 Could Be Saved Per Year If UK Domestic Flights Went Electric
- Air Travellers To Be Hit By Carbon Charge On All Tickets
- Climate Change ‘May Curb Growth In UK Flying’
- France Bans Short-Haul Flights To Cut Carbon Emissions
- KLM Replaces Plane With High Speed Train
- Lumo Carbon Data Shows Its Trains Are 22 Times Greener Than Flying
- Next Time I’ll Go By Train
- Ryanair One Of Europe’s Top Polluters, EU Data Suggests
- Stop Taking Internal Flights And Go Green, Says Lib Dem Contender Davey
The climate seems to be turning against flying short-haul.
This is a paragraph, in this press release from LNER, which is entitled First Tri-Mode Long Distance Trains For The East Coast Main Line.
This new fleet of trains will keep LNER on track to reduce its emissions by 67 per cent by 2035 and be net zero by 2045. LNER has already reduced carbon emissions by 50 per cent compared with 2018/19. Per mile, LNER trains produce 15 times less carbon emissions than a domestic flight.
Are LNER building a number of climate-based sticks, with which to beat the airlines on the routes, where they compete?
These are my thoughts on the various routes, where LNER compete with airlines.
Newcastle
Newcastle is an interesting one.
- Newcastle station is in the city centre and is on the Tyne and Wear Metro.
- London King’s Cross is one of London’s major Underground hubs.
- There are lots of buses and local trains within walking distance of both stations.
- There are three trains every two hours and an additional eight trains per day (tpd) between the two London King’s Cross and Newcastle stations.
- Lumo also run five tpd on the route.
- There are generally no security delays at rail stations.
- London King’s Cross is laid out to maximise passenger flows. If it gets busy, everybody just walks out into King’s Cross Square.
- I’ve never had a problem at Newcastle station with overcrowding.
Perhaps, if you live near one of the airports, flying is more convenient.
LNER’s weapons against the airlines between London King’s Cross and Newcastle will be convenience and journey times.
Convenience is all about the location of the stations, their excellent local transport networks and good walking routes around the station.
Journey times will only get better, as the magic of digital in-cab signalling, allows the Azumas, the new CAF tri-mode long distance trains and the few remaining InterCity 225s to show what they were designed to do.
Dalton-on-Tees, where the first phase of the digitally signalling will end, is 39.8 miles South of Newcastle, so once the Newcastle train is passes Dalton-on-Tees on the East Coast Main Line, it will be a digital-signalled electrified railway all the way to Woolmer Green.
- Dalton-on-Tees is 39.8 miles South of Newcastle
- Woolmer Green is 244.8 miles South of Newcastle.
- Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green is 205 miles.
- Newcastle and Dalton-on-Tees takes 37 minutes.
- Woolmer Green and King’s Cross takes 18 minutes
- Trains take typically an average three hours and nine minutes between London and Newcastle.
- A typical train time by LNER between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green is two hours and 14 minutes.
- This is an average speed of 91.8 mph between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green.
- Between London King’s Cross and Newcastle is fully-electrified.
I can build a table of timings and savings at various average speeds.
- 120 mph – 103 minutes – two hours and 38 minutes – 31 minutes
- 125 mph – 98 minutes – two hours and 33 minutes – 36 minutes
- 130 mph – 95 minutes – two hours and 30 minutes – 39 minutes
- 135 mph – 91 minutes – two hours and 26 minutes – 43 minutes
- 140 mph – 88 minutes – two hours and 23 minutes – 46 minutes
Note.
- The first field is the average speed between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green.
- The second field is the time between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green.
- The third field is the time between London and Newcastle.
- The fourth field is the saving over current timings.
- The London and Newcastle time is calculated by adding the times for the three sections together.
I have regularly timed trains at a very constant 125 mph, so with digital signalling, I suspect an average of 130 mph is possible.
This would mean, times of a few minutes under two hours and thirty minutes could be possible between London and Newcastle.
Edinburgh
Edinburgh builds on the improvements South of Newcastle.
Edinburgh station Waverley is a well-connected station.
- There are lots of buses, local trains and the Edinburgh Tram within walking distance of Edinburgh Waverley station.
- There are three trains every two hours and an additional seven tpd between the London King’s Cross and Edinburgh Waverley stations.
- Lumo also run five tpd on the route.
- Trains take typically an average four hours and thirty minutes between London and Edinburgh Waverley.
- Any savings because of the digital in-cab signalling between London and Newcastle can be applied to London and Edinburgh Waverley services.
As my calculations showed that averaging 130 mph between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green could save 39 minutes on journey times, I am fairly sure than a sub-four hour journey time will be possible between London and Edinburgh Waverley.
It should also be noted that that the power supply has been improved between Newcastle and Edinburgh Waverley.
- The distance between Newcastle and Edinburgh Waverley is 124.2 miles
- Newcastle and Edinburgh Waverley takes around one hour and 30 minutes.
- This is an average speed of 82.8 mph between Newcastle and Edinburgh Waverley.
- Between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh Waverley is fully-electrified.
As the record time for between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh Waverley was set by an InterCity225 train in 1993 at three hours and twenty-nine minutes, I suspect that with more digital signalling and some track improvements, that there are more journey time improvements to be squeezed out.
I certainly believe that a time of three hours and fifty minutes between London and Edinburgh Waverley will be regularly achieved. This is a journey time saving of around forty minutes.
Dundee
Dundee has an airport and a station on the East Coast Main Line.
Trains between London King’s Cross and Dundee take around five hours and 45 minutes.
LNER run three trains per day to and from London King’s Cross and one tpd to and from Leeds.
CrossCountry also run services.
Loganair has two flights per day to Heathrow.
Aberdeen
Aberdeen builds on the improvements South of Edinburgh.
The four direct tpd between London and Aberdeen take around seven hours and ten minutes.
This should come down to around six hours and thirty minutes with the journey time savings between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh Waverley.
Will this tempt travellers from the airlines?
Battery-Electric Trains To Dundee And Aberdeen
One thing that will help, is that Edinburgh and Aberdeen is to be partially electrified.
InPiling Work To Get Underway To Electrify Line To Fife, I included this Network Rail map of the electrification.
This map has been downloaded from the Network Rail web site.
The electrification is split into four phases.
- Haymarket and Dalmeny – 25 km
- Kirkcaldy and Thornton North – 25 km.
- Lochgelly and Thornton North – 20 km.
- Thornton North and Ladybank – 34 km.
Note.
- The last three phases of electrification connect to Thornton North.
- The new rail link to Leven will also be electrified. and connected to Thornton North.
- The Forth Bridge is not to be electrified.
As Ladybank station is just 91.4 miles from Aberdeen, I suspect LNER will use Hitachi Intercity Battery Hybrid Trains to serve Aberdeen.
If these trains haven’t got the range, then I suspect LNER’s new CAF Tri-Mode Trains could handle the route.
Inverness
Inverness has a problem.
Zero-carbon trains will be unlikely to get to the city without full electrification of the Highland Main Line.
- Dunblane is the nearest electrified station to Inverness, but it is 146.2 miles away over a route with lots of steep climbs.
- I doubt that a battery-electric train could handle that route.
One solution would be for LNER to run the new CAF Tri-Mode Trains to Inverness using HVO or biodiesel.
Glasgow
Glasgow is the only other Scottish city with an airport and good rail connections to the South.
I am sure that Avanti West Coast will target airline passengers, if LNER prove it is a successful policy.
Other Factors
These are other factors, that will come into a traveller’s choice.
First Class
Some travellers like a bit more comfort and service.
Ability To Work
Some travellers like to work on a train.
You Don’t Get Tables On a Plane
I like to open a paper or magazine flat, which is difficult on a plane.
Views Tend To Be Better On a Train
Providing you get a window!
Parking Tends To Be Better At An Airport
But it may be more expensive!
Security Is Less Hassle On A Train
At the moment!
You Don’t Need To Prove Your Identity On A Train
Not in the UK! Yet!
Conclusion
It looks like LNER can offer the airlines to four of our major Northern cities serious zero-carbon competition.
The Anonymous Widower 