Will We Vote For Cameron’s Deal On Europe?
I don’t know the answer and there are probably only a couple of people who can predict the result with any certainty.
I’ve just looked at the reliable Odds Checker web site for their Brexit Referendum Betting Odds and as I write this post, it is 5/2 On to stay in and 5/2 that we’ll leave.
If I vote and I probably will, as the first time I voted was for the EU Referendum of 1975, it will probably be to stay in, as I am a committed European in habit and probably culture.
I also think that we should be in a reformed Schengen Area and that we need a more flexible payment system.
Schengen is an ideal, but in the modern world of terrorism, international crime and immigration pressures, it falls down a deep hole.
What could replace it, I know not, but surely we can find something, that is better than what we have now.
Flexible payments will happen, as cash is replaced by contactless payments on cards and mobile phones.
How long will it be until I look at my credit card statement and see real -time transactions in pounds despite spending them all over the world in euros, dollars and Ruritanian groats?
We will be moving inexorably towards a World electronic currency, that appears to everybody as the one they want to use.
Let’s face it, it’s only software.
The currency merging will be led by the Anglo-Saxon English-speaking triumvirate; the US/Canada, the UK and Hong Kong/Singapore.
The Eurozone will be unable to keep the Euro out of this juggernaut.
Europe’s biggest problem is migration and despite what you read in the Mail and the Express, because of our island status, we are isolated from the worst excesses of uncontrolled migration into the European Union.
I think it will have further effects after it destroys Schengen in its present form.
There are elections in a lot of European states soon!
Will we see fruit-cake parties campaigning against more migration and for a renegotiating of their relationship with the European Union, as David Cameron has just done?
You bet we will!
David Cameron has truly opened Pandora’s Box!
Putin And Europe’s Far Right
There was a headline in The Times yesterday of Le Pen’s party asks Russia for €27m loan.
So I searched for Putin’s links to far right parties and found this article in the Guardian entitled We should beware Russia’s links with Europe’s right. This is said.
It sounds like a chapter from a cheesy spy novel: far-right European party, in financial trouble, borrows a big sum of cash from a hawkish Russian president. His goal? To undermine the European Union and to consolidate ties between Moscow and the future possible leader of pro-Kremlin France.
Europe isn’t the problem! It’s Putin and Russia!
Heathrow Express And Crossrail
There is an interesting report on the front of the Business section of the Sunday Times entitled Heathrow starts fight over bill for Crossrail link.
Apparently, the airport want to charge passengers using Crossrail to the Airport for using the part of the Airport Rail Link, that was funded by the Airport. The Airport wants to raise a total of £40million every year.
My first reaction is to think this is an story worthy of April the First or someone in the negotiations for the route of Crossrail has made a big mistake.
If I wanted to build a new railway into say a small town, before I started to construct the railway, I would make sure all of the legals were tightly sown up and agreed.
Surely with a fourteen billion pound project like Crossrail, where since 1974, there has been talk of a link to Heathrow, you wouldn’t start construction of the project, unless you had everything nailed before starting construction.
The Crossrail Bill was approved in 2005 and has since been backed by all Governments and most political parties.
According to Wikipedia, Heathrow Airport Holdings,owns or part owns the Heathrow Airport branch of Crossrail. So it would appear that they may have some basis for charging passengers to use the line.
As I said the Crossrail Bill was signed in 2005 and then because of competition concerns, the company was made to divest themselves of most of the other Airports, that it owned. Competition Concerns in the Wikipedia entry for Heathrow Airport Holdings details the competition concerns.
Wikipedia describes Heathrow Airport as being owned like this.
The airport is owned and operated by Heathrow Airport Holdings, which itself is owned by FGP TopCo Limited, an international consortium led by the Spanish Ferrovial Group that includes Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec and Government of Singapore Investment Corporation.
From what I can gather the Spanish group took over the old BAA plc, which had been privatised in 1986, in July 2006. So surely, as the Crossrail Bill had been signed in the previous year, they would have known all about the rail project.
So why just four years before Crossrail opens and everybody in London is getting excited about the project and especially the link to a major airport, should Heathrow Airport come up with a demand for forty million pounds a year?
I think there is a clue in the comments placed on the article, by subscribers to the Sunday Times web site. who are probably a fair cross section of the people who regularly use Heathrow.
There is not one comment, that thinks that Heathrow has a valid case and many are hostile even about the existence of Heathrow.
So has Heathrow just done a bit of research on the Heathrow Express?
They will have found some or all of the following.
- Heathrow Express only goes to Paddington.
- Passengers for Heathrow come from all parts of London and the South-East and don’t use Heathrow Express because getting to Paddington is difficult.
- Many of the workers at the airport, take public transport to get to the Airport and few use Heathrow Express.
- Crossrail will serve Central London and other important districts like Canary Wharf, Reading and South Essex.
- Crossrail links directly to Thameslink and the services out of Liverpool Street.
- Many passengers will use Crossrail instead of driving to and from the Airport.
- Crossrail will run all night.
- Londoners see London Overground and Underground as theirs and use them.
- Crossrail will be part of Transport for London’s system.
- Crossrail will use hassle-free contactless ticketing. Most travellers will just use a bank card and expect no waiting time.
- There will be a big row, if pensioners can’t use their Freedom Passes on Crossrail to Heathrow.
- No Mayoral candidate in next May’s election will back Heathrow over Transport for London.
- Gatwick Airport will introduce contactless ticketing in a few months.
- Paddington to Terminal One takes fifteen minutes on Heathrow Express and will take only nine minutes longer on Crossrail.
- A big enthusiasm for Crossrail
- As seen in the Sunday Times comments, deep resentment for Heathrow and Heathrow Express.
They will also probably have had some very forthright comments about the cost of tickets for Heathrow Express.
At the moment Heathrow Express is the only fast and comfortable train service to get between Heathrow and Central London.
But Crossrail will be a game-changer, as it will be not much slower, spacious, frequent, more convenient and hopefully comfortable.
For a few years, Crossrail will also have the new factor and passengers will at least give it a try.
I think that all this means there will be a massive shift of passengers away from Heathrow Express to Crossrail.
So seeing this projected loss of revenue, they have come to the conclusion that they must get another income stream to make up the losses.
But travellers are not stupid any more and unless their company is paying, now chose the most convenient route to their ultimate destination at the best price.
I may not be typical, but I have five convenient local airports, so on many flights, I have a choice of airport. Unfortunately for Heathrow, more and more of their possible travellers, have this luxury of choice.
All this leads to my view, that Heathrow will be forced to apply the-if-you-can’t-beat-em-join-em principle, as I think Heathrow possibly needs Crossrail, more than Crossrail needs Heathrow.
Consider the following.
- Crossrail links at Farringdon to Thameslink, which serves Luton and Gatwick Airports.
- Crossrail links directly to the City and Canary Wharf.
- Crossrail avoids the bottleneck at Paddington.
- Crossrail will link Heathrow to the West Coast Main Line and the future HS2 at Old Oak Common.
- Crossrail will expand in the next few years to give better connectivity to many more places.
- Heathrow needs to build a direct link to Reading.
- Heathrow needs to link Crossrail to Terminal 5.
- Routes are possible, that could link Crossrail 2 to Heathrow.
- Heathrow will lose credibility and passengers, if it is not just seen as a stop on London’s transport network.
If Crossrail didn’t serve Heathrow for the first few years after it opened, I don’t think that Transport for London would get the blame!
In some ways, Heathrow’s best policy might be to cut their losses and sell the Heathrow Airport Links and its stations to Crossrail, after agreeing extensions to the Airport Rail Links.
But that would give in the eyes of some, London’s Mayor too much control over airports policy for the South East! Surely, he or she would know more about Heathrow and the problems the airport causes, than a faceless multi-national.
New Trains For The North
That is the headline on a two page article in Modern Railways magazine.
It is an article that is strong on promises, in what it says that First TransPennine and Arriva Northern Trains will do.
Under a sub-heading of Bi-Modes for TransPennine, this is said.
FirstGroup is to invest over £400 million in a fleet of 44 new five-car 125 mph trains, which are expected to be based on the Hitachi AT300 design already being procured by sister operator Great Western Railway.
It also states that twelve will be electric only and the rest will be bi-modes.
The timetables state that the first bi-mode will enter service in December 2017.
Under a sub-heading of New and Upgraded Fleet for Northern, this is said.
Arriva is to invest £400 in 98 new air-conditioned 100 mph trains comprising 281 carriages, of which 43 will be three- and four-car EMUs and 55 two- and three-car DMUs. The latter will enable the withdrawal of all Pacers by the end of 2019.
The delivery schedule for the new trains stretches to 2020.
All these promises are all well and good, but I do wonder if they are deliverable with new trains.
AT300
Hitachi have been clever and have bought AnsaldoBreda, so they can build AT300 trains in Italy. This is said in the Wikipedia entry for the AT300, which is based on the Class 800 train, they are building in Newton Aycliffe.
In mid 2015 Eversholt Rail, a rolling stock operating company signed a £361m contract with FGW to purchase 173 new AT300 carriages, consisting of 22 five-car and seven nine-car trains. The AT300 trains are to be built at Hitachi Rail Italy’s Pistoia plant.
The trains are expected to enter service with Great Western Railway from December 2018. and are also expected to reduce journey times from London to Exeter by up to 5min, to Plymouth by up to 6min, and to Penzance by up to 14min.
It puzzles me how First TransPennine will be able to introduce the first bi-mode into service in December 2017, as where will the train be built?
It can’t be built in Italy, as Hitachi won’t have even delivered their first train until December 2017.
The only possibility will be to take trains from Newton Aycliffe and delay deliveries to Great Western Railway and Virgin Trains East Coast. Wikipedia and other sources is rather short on dates for the delivery of the Class 800 and Class 801 trains.
Hitachi in Newton Aycliffe are also involved in the building of AT200 trains for Abellio ScotRail. This is said in Wikipedia.
Abellio ScotRail will introduce a fleet of 46 three car and 24 four car Hitachi AT200 electric trains from December 2017, to operate services on the lines being electrified as part of the Edinburgh to Glasgow Improvement Programme, if it granted a three-year optional franchise extension, it will order a further 10 three car units
I doubt that we’ll see more than a token AT300 running on First TransPennine before the end of 2017.
Class 185 Trains
The Modern Railways article says this about TransPennine’s Class 185 trains
First is expected to retain 28 of the current 51×3 car fleet of Class 185s; the units to be retained will be refurbished.
This means that twenty-three of the Class 185 trains will be available for cascade.
Modern Railways says the two franchises will be jointly managed from Leeds, so would it be sensible to perhaps keep the current fleet together for refurbishment and maintenance?
So perhaps if the answer is yes, then common sense would dictate that the cascaded twenty-three trains would go to Arriva Northern.
Class 319 Trains
Handsome is as handsome does, goes the old horseman’s phrase and you couldn’t call a Class 319 train beautiful.
But for some of the electric routes in the North, they’re all we’ve got! And like some elderly actresses, they scrub up well.
The Modern Railways article says this about Northern’s use of the Class 319.
It is understood that refurbished Class 319s will be used on these services on an interim basis until new build units arrive.
I suspect that these will soldier on for a few years yet!
At least there are eighty-six of these 100 mph four-car trains.
There must be a lot of laughter at reunions of engineers from BREL York, when they see how far their Bedpan Special has gone. after being built especially for the Bedford-Brighton route through the tunnels under London via St. Pancras in the 1980s.
He who laughs last, laughs longest!
Class 442 Trains
This is said in the Modern Railways article about Class 442 trains.
First says it did evaluate the use of Class 442 EMUs displaced from Gatwick Express workings hauled by diesel locomotives.
But they found it was too challenging and have discounted them.
So it looks like the Class 442s won’t be going anywhere in the North and probably have no worthwhile future.
Class 390 Trains And The West Coast Main Line
Virgin Trains have aspirations to run their Class 390 trains that work the West Coast Main Line, at their design speed of 140 mph in as many places on the route as possible. This section in Wikipedia gives more details.
At present because of signalling and regulations, trains are limited to 125 mph, but it is likely that once ERTMS is fully implemented, that pressure will increase to allow 140 mph in places on the West Coast Main Line.
TransPennine’s Scottish Services
TransPennine are increasing their Scottish services and this timetable is given.
- December 2018 – Liverpool-Glasgow service launched
- December 2019 – 12 new electric trains introduced on Anglo-Scottish services.
- December 2019 – Liverpool-Newcastle services extended to Edinburgh
This is said about the Class 350 trains currently running their Scottish services.
The 10 four-car Class 350/4 EMUs currently used on Manchester-Scotland services are expected to be phased out over the first three years and offered to other franchises. First say these trains are too small to run on many diagrams as single units.
So it looks like trains with this specification will be needed.
- Electric power only
- 140 mph top speed, as parts of the West Coast Main Line, will probably get upgraded to this speed, within the service lifetime of the trains.
- Five cars or longer.
- The ability to work in pairs. As all Glasgow trains will probably call at Preston, it might be sensible to join and split Liverpool and Manchester trains there to save train paths on the West Coast Main Line.
- Full on-board customer service.
The specification fits the Hitachi AT300 well, as these trains are available in five car sets and can be upgraded with minor modification for 140 mph running.
But will the timetable of 2019 for twelve new trains, fit the production capabilities?
As delivery into service by December 2019, to give TransPennine their promised service might be exceedingly challenging, could we be seeing something from another manufacturer?
After all, there are several around the world, who could create five-car 140 mph electric express trains?
- Some open-access operators like Alliance Rail are talking about using Pendolinos on Scottish routes, so Class 390 trains or an updated design of Italian-built Pendolino train must be a very real possibility.
- Siemens must also have a suitable train perhaps based on a German ICE design.
- The Chinese, Koreans, Spanish and Swiss shouldn’t be discounted.
If Hitachi can’t deliver, I’d put my money on a five-car Pendolino. After all, it is proven on the West Coast Main Line.
EMUs For Northern
Arriva have said, they will be buying forty-three 100 mph air-conditioned electric multiple units (EMUs), in a mixture of three- and four-car units.
These are probably the easiest trains to source and they might even already have been ordered or even built, in the shape of Class 387 trains. These have the following specification.
- Modern air-conditioned four car electric train.
- 110 mph capability
- Proven performance and certification.
- Bombardier can probably build them alongside all their Aventras at Derby.
But there are few electrified routes in the North, where they can be run.
However on the other hand!
I’ve believed ever since I rode the Class 379 BEMU or IPEMU demonstrator, that battery-powered trains based on this technology, are ideal for some of Northern’s routes.
Partially electrified routes or ones that run between electrified hub stations at Carlisle, Doncaster, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle and York, could have virtually brand-new four-car electric trains, as soon as Bombardier can add IPEMU systems to Class 387 trains, currently in service or on order and staff can be trained.
A few months ago, I wrote Rumours Of Battery Powered Trains, where I said there were rumours of some of Great Western Railway’s order for Class 387 trains would be delivered as IPEMUs to help solve the shambles of the Great Western Main Line electrification.
Using an IPEMU is an attractive approach for several reasons.
- IPEMUs have a range of around sixty miles on the battery, if it is fully charged.
- IPEMUs have regenerative braking at all times, whether there is an electric supply or not! This improves efficiency and increased on-battery range!
- Bombardier feel that all trains should have energy storage for myriad operational reasons and the upcoming Aventra will be designed to accept an energy storage device as standard.
- Passengers will have the same experience on overhead line or battery power.
- On many routes, IPEMUs need no modifications to be able to run, except perhaps lengthening platforms for four-cars.
- On a scenic line or one in the middle of nowhere, the problems of electrification and its maintenance can be avoided, if services can be run by IPEMUs.
- Electrified hubs can be upgraded or created to charge the trains. In the North, Carlisle is being upgraded and Hull and Middlesbrough could be electrified.
- Some lines are currently run by some of the better diesel multiple units (DMUs) like Class 158 trains. Releasing these would probably eliminate a few of the dreaded Pacers on other lines.
All stakeholders will like these trains.
- Operators know that new four-car trains will attract more fare-paying customers.
- Network Rail will save money on electrification and can skip difficult bits.
- On many routes, opening up bridges and tunnels for the overhead wires is difficult, very disruptive and a time- and money-consuming process.
- Passengers and staff like new trains.
- More places can be served by electric trains.
- New four-car trains replacing ageing diesels will improve the prosperity of an area.
Routes that could be easily converted include.
- Barrow to Manchester Airport
- Chester to Manchester Victoria
- Windermere to Manchester Airport
- Blackpool North to Manchester Airport
- Liverpool to Manchester Airport via Warrington
Add in some electrified hubs and short lengths of tactical electrification to charge the trains and other lines like the scenic Tyne Valley Line between Newcastle and Carlisle could be run using new four-car electric trains.
I believe that these trains have enough energy storage to actually bridge the notorious forty mile gap in the electrification between Manchester Victoria and Leeds, thus creating an electric train service from Liverpool to Edinburgh via Manchester, Leeds, York and Newcastle
Note that news on development of IPEMU trains has been very quiet for several months and the only report is this article in the Derby Telegraph, which is entitled Battery-powered trains win award for Bombardier.
So someone other than I do, think the technology works and deserves its place on the railways of the UK.
Class 323 Trains
Before leaving Northern’s EMUs something must be said about the seventeen three-car Class 323 trains, that run services out of Manchester.
As they are being transferred to London Midland, they will need to be replaced.
Also, according to Wikipedia at times, some of the Class 323s are currently replaced by a pair of Pacers. So perhaps they need a bigger fleet anyway!
So until new units are ordered, will we see Class 319s working these routes? Or could they be a home for some of Porterbrook’s Class 387s?
It’ll all come out in time and in the contracts?
DMUs For Northern
Arriva have said, they will buy fifty-five two- and three-car DMUs.
Two factors could decrease this number.
- If Arriva go down the Class 387 IPEMU route, more routes will be running electric trains.
- The twenty-three Class 185 trains cascaded from TransPennine should they end up with Arriva.
- It seems likely that other companies including Great Western Railway could use the IPEMU route, thus making some high-quality DMUs available.
I won’t speculate on how many new DMUs will be actually ordered and built. If any!
Northern Connect
Northern Connect will be a sub-brand comprising a dozen long distance routes across the North.
Modern Railways publishes a table of the routes and indicates eight routes will be run by new DMUs, two by refurbished trains and two by new EMUs.
Obviously, Northern have a plan to create five of these routes by the end of 2018 and the rest by the end of 2019.
Where will the various classes of train fit?
- Some routes could be run by EMUs, with Class 319s providing an interim service until the new build arrive.
- Some routes could be run by Class 387 IPEMUs, once they are delivered.
- Some of the longer routes around Sheffield and Hull would be ideal for Class 185s.
If the long-rumoured Class 387 IPEMUs do appear, Barrow and Windermere to Manchester Airport, would be ideal routes on which to trial and showcase the technology.
Northern’s Train Philosophy
The Modern Railways article also says this.
Arriva says that it is still in negotiations with the supply chain but expects to sign a contract by April. It also says that the new fleet ‘has the capacity to grow’ with the trains ‘ordered as a family that are expandable’. The first 92 carriages will enter service by the end of 2018, with a further 163 by the end of 2019 to ensure all Pacers are replaced and the final 26 in 2020.
That is a very sound train procurement philosophy, which has a fairly relaxed delivery schedule, given the shortage of train building capacity in the UK and Europe. I suspect the Chinese could build them, but would that be politically acceptable?
I would not be surprised if Arriva went for a purchase of Class 387 trains, of which a proportion were IPEMU variants and some tactical electrification to produce electrified hubs in places like Huddersfield, Hull, Scarborough and Sheffield. It would be an afordable way of getting the benefits of new electric trains at an affordable price.
They would still need a few diesel multiple units, over and above the good ones they replaced with electric trains. But London Overground and hopefully Great Western Railway should be releasing some that are suitable.
Only as a last resort, would any new ones be ordered.
Class 387 Trains
I believe that the Class 387 Trains will play a large part in Northern’s plans.
They are a 110 mph four-car modern unit and currently there are twenty-nine units in service and another twenty-eight on order, if you ignore the separate order of twenty-seven trains for the Gatwick Express.
Thirty seven units are destined for the Great Western Railway and in Rumours Of Battery Powered Trains, I wrote about unconfirmed reports that some of these trains for the GWR would be IPEMU variants. I suspect that this will be confirmed, as it will enable electric services to be started on the shambles that is the Great Western.
The Gatwick Express variant of the Class 387 is going to be a train, worth looking at, as it will be the first Airport train we’ve ordered since the Heathrow Express.
There are to be twenty-seven four car trains replacing twenty-four five-car Class 442 trains.
There may be a few less carriages, but they are designed for the route.
They are also built as dual-voltage trains. Is that just so they can be tested on the West Coast Main Line, as was reported in this article in Rail Magazine, or because they think the type will have other Airport applications, like possibly Manchester, Cardiff, Glasgow, Luton, East Midlands and Stansted.
I can’t wait to ride one in the near future, as I think it might offer, a whole new experience of getting to an airport by train.
A lot of the services in the North West go via Manchester Airport. So would a follow-on order of this variant be ideal to get passengers to the fast growing airport?
Some questions have to be asked.
- As some of these services go all the way to Scotland, could the train be certified to the 125 mph of the West Coast Main Line?
- Could an IPEMU variant be created to bridge the gap between Manchester and Leeds?
- Could an IPEMU variant link Manchester Airport to Barrow, Blackpool North, Liverpool and Windermere?
- Can Class 387 trains be built in five-car formations?
If the answer to all or some of these questions is in the affirmative, Manchester Airport and the Nortrh might receive some interesting trains from Derby to create a 125 mph network of five-car Airport trains all across the North.
I suspect that Bombardier are working hard to see if they can fulfil that dream, as if they can, the rewards to the company, Arriva Northern, First TransPennine, Network Rail and the North in general, could be substantial!
There would be no waiting until 2018 for true bi-mode trains.
Could the silence on the IPEMUs be just because all parties don’t want to show their hands until all of the tiniest details are totally settled?
Political And Commercial Considerations
I mentioned in the section on the Class 387 trains, how important to get any trains, that can improve services in the North is to the companies involved and Bombardier in particular.
Bombardier have been going through a rough patch and were bailed out by the Quebecois. They seem to be sorted with large orders, but creating some more Class 387 trains, must be good cash-flow and profitable.
Network Rail are in a deep mess over electrification everywhere and desperately need some help in creating lines for electric trains. Peter Hendy is trying to sort out the shambles and there is a report in Modern Railways this month with a headline of Hendy Finds £2.5 Billion To Save Enhancements. The article says assets will be sold and there will be more money from the Government.
Arriva and FirstGroup have spent a lot of time and effort to create plans to give the North a modern world-class railway system. It is unlikely, that the train manufacturers will fail to deliver to agreed contracts, as all trains proposed for the North or either in service or at the certification and trial stage. The problem is the tracks. They will not be pleased if Network Rail fail to deliver, the electrification they have promised on time, as pictures of new trains stored in sidings are not good publicity.
Read a lot of the stories about new trains to run on newly electrified lines and dates have a vague air about them.
I suspect all will become a lot clearer, when Peter Hendry fills out his plan for Network Rail in the Spring. All we are getting at the moment are worthwhile aspirations.
And then there is the small matter of the local elections in May!
If the shambles is still persisting before the election, Corbyn and the Labour Party will have a field day, when they say they will nationalise the railways.
This would be a disaster for Arriva, FirstGroup and probably Peter Hendy. The companies would probably lose millions and Peter Hendy would have totally failed.
With my engineering hard-hat on, I’m getting more and more convinced that those clever engineers in Derby will pull the IPEMU rabbit out of the hat.
They have form for this, as in the 1970s, they created the peerless InterCity 125, after the wreckage of the APT.
Conclusion
Wait for April and hopefully before then a lot more will be revealed!
What’s Got Twenty-Eight Legs and An IQ Of Fourteen?
As there are fourteen of them at the moment, it’s Republican Party presidential candidates, 2016.
This is a joke that might get bigger!
Trump Forgot The Ace Of Clubs
This article on the BBC web site, is entitled Donald Trump loses wind farm legal challenge. This is said.
Donald Trump’s legal challenge to a planned offshore wind farm has been rejected by the UK’s Supreme Court.
The UK Supreme Court is probably the end of an expensive road.
My late friend; Brian, would have said that an old accountancy phrase would apply – Screwed, Glued and Tattooed.
Seeing as it’s Scotland, perhaps it should be the Scottish version – Screwed, Glued and Bagpiped. I’m certain, there are a large number of Scots, who have innovative uses of a set of bagpipes as an instrument of torture.
There is this article on the Aberdeen Renewable Energy Group, entitled EOWDC partners welcome Supreme Court decision. This is said.
Vattenfall and Aberdeen Renewable Energy Group (AREG), partners of Aberdeen Offshore Wind Farm Ltd, the company behind the European Offshore Wind Deployment Centre (EOWDC), welcomed today’s Supreme Court decision.
Andy Paine, Project Director for AOWFL, said: “This is another significant step forward for the EOWDC. It affirms the scheme’s potential to position Scotland, and particularly the North-east, as a centre of innovative offshore wind power. The project partners remain committed to seeing the EOWDC come to fruition and delivering long-term economic benefits to the region.”
It certainly looks like Trump didn’t have the heaviest club; the Ace, in his bag.
I’ll leave the last word to the Professional Golfers Association, as detailed in this report on the BBC entitled Donald Trump controversy bad for golf – PGA chief Sandy Jones. This is said.
The chief executive of the Professional Golfers’ Association says the ongoing controversy generated by Donald Trump is “not a positive thing for golf.”
Trump, who owns two Scottish courses, has been criticised for comments made during his bid to become the Republican Party’s US presidential candidate.
And Sandy Jones says the negative publicity around Trump is bad for golf.
“Sadly his political campaign in America seems to be getting in the way of all the great things golf offers.”
Tìoraidh!
While Cameron Dithers About London, Manchester Decides!
I picked up two reports on airports this week.
This report on the BBC is entitled Heathrow airport delay gutless, says business group and talks about a lot of the fallout from David Cameron’s decision not to decide on a new runway for the South-East.
In contrast, you have this report in the Manchester Evening News entitled New images shows possible high-tech future of Manchester Airport’s check-in after ‘Super Terminal’ transformation, which describes the airports expansion plans.
Expanding Heathrow seems to generate controversy in super-tanker loads, whereas Manchester doesn’t sem to attract anything like the same level, even when you take the different sizes into account.
Look at this Google Map of Heathrow.
Heathrow Airport
Compare it with this one of Manchester Airport.
Manchester Airport
I don’t know for sure, but it would appear from these maps and larger ones, that Heathrow has used up much more of the available space around the runways, whereas Manchester hasn’t!
When Heathrow wanted to build Terminal 5, they had to move a sewage works, and another terminal would be difficult on the same site. Manchester has some space left.
So any expansion at Heathrow needs to expand the airport site, which is where a lot of the opposition comes from.
In my view the only way to expand Heathrow is to make better use of the current runways and the terminals. But that can only go on for so long!
And would the locals object to more landings and take-offs? You bet they would!
David Cameron is no fool and he knows that with the opposition of Boris Johnson and nearly all the candidates for the London Mayor against Heathrow, that it will never gain a third runway.
I hate to look backwards but the Roskill Commission of the 1960s and their eventual decision by a roundabout route was for an airport on Maplin Sands to the East of Southend.
But Harold Wilson’s government cancelled this airport, just as they did the Picc-Vic Tunnel in Manchester and improvement of the rail lines across the Pennines.
In my view as air traffic increases, Heathrow needs to expand to just survive, as there is competition all around.
- Schipol, Paris Charles de Gaulle and even Manchester competing for the interchange traffic.
- Trains to the Continent
- Birmingham, Gatwick, Luton, Southend, Stansted and others nibbling Heathrow’s markets.
- HS2
- Passengers are increasingly savvy and go from any convenient airport, using an acceptable airline at the right time and price.
- Internet technology will guide people to the best and cheapest way to travel from say Cambridge to Boston. An expensive Heathrow could be its own worst enemy.
- Other airports will offer better car-friendly solutions.
So as it can’t expand, due to the politicians and local residents, Heathrow must accept that it can’t and it must prepare itself for downgrade to just an airport for London and those living locally.
It also means, the South East must eventually find another site for a new airport to replace Heathrow.
The only place is the Thames Estuary!
So why didn’t the Davies Airport Commission recommend the Boris Island?
Howard Davies is a man of the City Establishment, who are very conservative with a small c and love the convenience, which Crossrail will make better, of Heathrow. How many submissions were against the Boris Island because it would mean too much change in their business?
But a properly designed Thames Hub Airport, could also incorporate the new Thames Barrier and Lower Thames Crossing that London needs.
To many of London’s residents and a lot of their politicians, it is a no-brainer! But for the City, only an expanded Heathrow will do!
So how will Manchester Airport affect London’s Airport mess in the future.
I believe that Manchester Airport will start to dominate air transport in the North of England and Scotland, just as Heathrow used to dominate the South.
- It has space for new terminals and aircraft and car parking.
- A rail network is developing to bring passengers to the airport from all over the North and Scotland.
- HS2 and probably HS3 are coming to the Airport.
- When it needs to expand it decides to and does!
It could also be combined with Liverpool Airport using a very high speed train, if it needed more runway capacity. It’s just forty-four kilometres as a Maglev would fly at 200 kilometres per hour, up the Mersey. Manchester and Liverpool airports could work together, much better than Heathrow can work with either Gatwick, Luton or Stansted.
So will an expanded Manchester Airport take a big bite out of Heathrow’s traffic? You bet it will. Especially, if Heathrow continues to not expand.
I think we should start to plan a Thames Estuary Airport now, even if we don’t built it for twenty years.. If we don’t, then when we need to start building, we’ll take another fifty years to make a decision.
Or we could always do what we’re doing now and let market forces, various interests and passenger choice decide our airports policy?
And as ever, engineers and architects, will improve aircraft and airports, so that we find them acceptable.
The airports problem won’t be solved until perhaps in about 2060, when the Dutch get fed up with Schipol and we join with them and the Belgians to create an airport perhaps slightly east of the Thames Estuary connected to various countries by high speed rail lines. It could be called Canute International!
The only certainty, is that I won’t be here to see it built!
Torotrak Share Price Rises
On of my Google Alerts picked up this article from www.financialmagazin.com which is entitled How Analysts Feel About Torotrak plc After Today’s Huge Increase?
Torotrak is an engineering company behind some kinetic energy recovery systems, that are seen in motor sport like Formula One. But the technology also has applications in the general motor industry to save fuel and we all know the hole VW has dug for itself.
But could the rise in the share price be driver by the big event happening tomorrow – The Chancellor’s Autumn Statement?
Probably not, but Torotrak’s system might be part of a suitable energy storage system for an Independently Powered Electrical Multiple Unit or IPEMU.
One of George Osborne’s biggest problems is funding the electrification of the railways, as if we are to modernise this country, then most rail lines need to be electrified or at least provided with modern trains.
I believe that the IPEMU is one solution to reduce costs, by avoiding the horrendous problems and costs of putting up the wires.
So will George go for it?
Which Constituencies Lie On Crossrail 2?
Alexandra Palace – Catherine West – Labour
Angel – Emily Thornberry – Labour
Angel Road – Kate Osamor – Labour
Balham – Sadiq Khan – Labour
Berrylands – James Berry – Conservative
Brimsdown – Joan Ryan – Labour
Broxbourne – Charles Walker – Conservative
Cheshunt – Charles Walker – Conservative
Chessington North – James Berry – Conservative
Chessington South – James Berry – Conservative
Clapham Junction – Jane Ellison – Conservative
Dalston – Meg Hillier – Labour
Enfield Lock – Joan Ryan – Labour
Epsom – Chris Grayling – Conservative
Ewell West – Chris Grayling – Conservative
Euston Kings Cross St. Pancras – Keir Starmer – Labour
Fulwell – Tania Mathias – Conservative
Hampton – Tania Mathias – Conservative
Hampton Court – Dominic Raab – Conservative
Hampton Wick – Tania Mathias – Conservative
Kempton Park – Kwasi Kwateng – Conservative
Kingston – James Berry – Conservative
Kings Road Chelsea – Greg Hands – Conservative
Malden Manor – James Berry – Conservative
Motspur Park – James Berry – Conservative
New Malden – James Berry – Conservative
New Southgate – David Burrowes – Conservative
Norbiton – James Berry – Conservative
Northumberland Park – David Lammy – Labour
Ponders End – Kate Osamor – Labour
Raynes Park – Stephen Hammond – Conservative
Seven Sisters – David Lammy – Labour
Shepperton – Kwasi Kwateng – Conservative
Sunbury – Kwasi Kwateng – Conservative
Stoneleigh – Chris Grayling – Conservative
Surbiton – James Berry – Conservative
Teddington – Tania Mathias – Conservative
Thames Ditton – Dominic Raab – Conservative
Tolworth – James Berry – Conservative
Tottenham Court Road – Keir Starmer – Labour
Tottenham Hale – David Lammy – Labour
Turnpike Lane – Catherine West – Labour
Upper Halliford – Kwasi Kwateng – Conservative
Victoria – Mark Field – Conservative
Waltham Cross – Charles Walker – Conservative
Wimbledon – Stephen Hammond – Conservative
Wood Green – Catherine West – Labour
Worcester Park – Paul Scully – Conservative
Totalling it up, there are fifteen stations in Labour consituencies and thirty-three in Conservative ones.
What has surprised me is how many MPs have more than one station in their constituency. James Berry has eleven for example.
Crossrail 2 October 2015 – Tooting Broadway Or Balham
In Crossrail 2 Changes its Mind under Tooting Broadway Or Balham, I wrote this.
Both Tooting Broadway and Balham stations are on the Northern Line, but I think Balham is being preferred as it is also a busy main line station.
As some of the main line services through Balham, are duplicated by Crossrail 2, the new line now offers opportunities to release the pressure off the lines through Balham.
If you look at a map of the railway lines in the area, it may be that Crossrail 2 will send the new tunnels in a wide circle from Balham to Wimbledon under Tooting and Haydons Road stations, so that the tunnels are dug totally under existing railway land.
Using Balham rather than Tooting Broadway seems a good idea.
I don’t live in |South London, or even know it too well, so I’ll accept that what I said could have been a comment in haste.
This report from This is South London is entitled Sadiq Khan demands answers as Balham is proposed instead of Tooting Broadway in Crossrail and says this.
It comes after ground faults near Tooting were discovered, meaning work there would take two years longer than originally estimated and cost more.
The news was met with frustration as many said Tooting needed the station more than Balham.
I know he’s the local MP, so he will stick up for his constituents.
Let’s look at the two stations.
This Crossrail 2 document is entitled Wimbledon To Clapham Junction and I’ve used it for information.
Tooting Broadway
These pictures show the area around Tooting Broadway station.
Tooting Broadway station is a typical Underground station on a busy surburban shopping street, that appears to be ruined by heavy traffic. I certainly wouldn’t go there to shop.
Tooting Broadway station is in the London Borough of Wandsworth
It is on the Northern Line
The Crossrail 2 document says this about a station at Tooting Broadway.
To relieve crowding on the Northern line, we had proposed a station at Tooting Broadway. Land for this was safeguarded earlier this year and further work on the station design has been completed to inform this consultation. Recent assessments have identified that ground conditions in the Tooting area would make it significantly more difficult to build a station at Tooting Broadway than originally thought. As a result of these challenges, we are looking at an alternative station location at Balham.
Work to date has suggested that a station at Balham could be built with significantly less disruption and would still provide many of the same transport benefits as a station at Tooting Broadway.
A station at Tooting Broadway would take up to two years longer to build, would require much larger worksites and thousands more lorry movements. This is because a station there would have to be built from the surface with more material removed by road. This would mean it would be more disruptive and cost nearly twice as much to build than a station at Balham.
I also think that even the world’s greatest architect, would have problems creating a decent station for the area.
If I lived in Tooting, I’d think that all those lorry movements would say that Balham can have the station and I’ll go there for shopping and entertainment.
Perhaps the only reason to build a station at Tooting Broadway, would be that it would make it easy to get away from the place.
Balham
These pictures show both the Tube and main line station at Balham.
I have a feeling that Balham is a very rare design for a Tube station in that it has two buildings on either side of the road and I can imagine that Crossrail 2 could serve Balham with a double-ended station with entrances on both sides of the High Road.
A good architect could create a world-class station here, that could act as a magnet for visitors and businesses to the area.
Balham station is in the London Borough of Wandsworth
It is on the Northern Line and also a busy station, through which the Brighton Main Line passes.
There are three trains an hour from Victoria to Epsom via Balham, which is a route duplicated by Crossrail 2. Could there be scope for cutting a few services?
This Google Map shows Balham station.
BalhamStation
The Northern Line crosses the main line at virtually a right angle following Balham High Road. The Crossrail 2 line will be built on the Western side of and parallel to the Northern Line.
The two lines would be linked by dedicated passenger tunnels, effectively creating a four platform underground station.
This link means that Crossrail 2 will go some way to meeting a secondary objective of relieving capacity on the Northern line.
It also enables anybody coming from or going to stations south of Balham, like Tooting Broadway for instance, will have a faster route to Central London.
Two work-sites would be used to sink shafts to the new line and Crossrail 2 station.
- Site B – A Northern one on the site of Balham Waitrose.
- Site A – A Southern one just south of where the Northern Line crosses the main rail lines.
It is worthwhile looking at the main lines through Balham on this Google Map.
Lines Through Balham Station
Note how the lines split to the East of Balham station, with the Brighton Main Line going south.
If you’re building a new Crossrail 2 station at Balham, you should probably rebuild and extend Balham station if that is required to improve services on the Brighton Main Line.
You’ve certainly got a lot of space!
Balham and its new Crossrail 2 station looks an excellent solution, especially as the link between the Northern Line and Crossrail 2 could be made so simple and totally step-free.
Making The Decision
So on a quick look, it would appear that Balham offers the better connectivity and Tooting has ground faults and would be much more difficult, expensive and disruptive to build.
Let’s face it, Tooting does not have any of the charm and space of Balham and save for complete demolition, Tooting Broadway is probably beyond redemption.
In some ways, it gives Sadiq Khan a difficult problem if he is elected Mayor next year. Should he insist as Mayors possibly can, that Crossrail 2 call at Tooting Broadway in his current constituency?
On what I have written here, I think it would be a seriously wrong decision to chose Tooting Broadway.
The Anonymous Widower 