Could London And Central Scotland Air Passengers Be Persuaded To Use The Trains?
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Edinburgh?
Wikipedia gives these figures for 2024 for passengers from Edinburgh to London
- London City – 334,873
- London Gatwick – 476,152
- London Heathrow – 1,148,634
- London Luton – 338, 729
- London Stansted – 693,953
This gives a total of 2,992,341.
As Wikipedia doesn’t give complete figures for from London to Edinburgh, for the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume they are the same.
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Glasgow?
Wikipedia gives these figures for 2024 for passengers from Glasgow to London
- London City – 208,405
- London Gatwick – 456,002
- London Heathrow – 954,027
- London Luton – 255,095
- London Stansted – 225,110
This gives a total of 2,098,639.
As Wikipedia doesn’t give complete figures for from London to Glasgow, for the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume they are the same.
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
Adding the two figures gives 5,090,980. in both directions.
Which is an average of 97,903 per week or 13,948 per day.
How Many Train Seats Run Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
These figures are for Friday the 1st of August.
- Aventi West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 5 x 9-car Class 390 train – 2,345 seats
- Aventi West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 16 x 11-car Class 390 train – 6,677 seats
- LNER – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh – 26 x 9-car Class 801 train – 15,886 seats
- Lumo – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh – 5 x 5-car Class 803 train – 2,010 seats
Note.
- All services are all-electric.
- All services are fairly new or have recently been refurbished,
This gives a total of 26,918 train seats.
Adding Lumo’s Service To Glasgow
In Lumo Will Extend Its King’s Cross And Edinburgh Service To Glasgow, I suggested that the Glasgow service would be run as follows from December 2025.
- Two existing Lumo services will leave London as pairs of five-car trains.
- The pairs will split at Edinburgh.
- The leading train will go on to Glasgow Queen Street calling at Edinburgh Haymarket and Falkirk High stations.
- The trailing train will return to London King’s Cross.
- At the end of the day, the two trains in Glasgow will do a fast run back to London King’s Cross as a pair of 5-car trains.
This will add 804 seats per day between London and Glasgow Queen Street in both directions.
The daily total would now total 27,722 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
Adding Lumo’s Service To Stirling
In Lumo To Expand Scotland’s Rail Network With New London-Stirling Rail Route From Spring 2026, I talk about Lumo’s new service to Stirling.
- There will be five trains per day (tpd) in each direction.
- Lumo’s new route will link London Euston directly to Stirling, also calling at Milton Keynes, Nuneaton, Crewe, Preston, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet (serving Coatbridge), Greenfaulds (serving Cumbernauld) and Larbert.
- The service will use 6-car Class 222 trains, which in the linked post, I estimate will have a similar one-class capacity to the Class 803 trains between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh.
- If the capacity of the two train types is similar, this should give operational advantages and allow some more Class 803 trains to run the Euston and Stirling route.
This second Scottish route will add 2010 train seats per day between London Euston and Stirling in both directions.
The daily total would now total 29,732 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
Could More Capacity Be Added Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
I believe some of the Lumo services between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh could be doubled up to a pair of trains.
There would have to be no platform length issues at London King’s Cross, Stevenage, Newcastle and Morpeth stations.
If three trains could be doubled up, that would add 1,206 train seats per day between London and Edinburgh in both directions.
The daily total would now total 30,938 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
I also suspect, that some of the Stirling services could be doubled up.
Connectivity Of England’s Northern Airports To London And Central Scotland
Birmingham Airport
Consider.
- There are easyJet flights to Edinburgh and Glasgow
- There are 1.5 trains per hour (tph) between Birmingham New Street and Edinburgh.
- There are 6 tpd between Birmingham New Street and Glasgow.
You would make your choice and pay the money.
East Midlands Airport
There are no flights or trains to Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Leeds Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Leeds and Edinburgh
- There is one tpd between Leeds and Glasgow
Could Leeds and Glasgow get better connectivity?
Liverpool Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Liverpool Lime Street and Edinburgh
- There is three tpd between Liverpool Lime Street and Glasgow
The Liverpool area is well connected to Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston stations on the West Coast Main Line for alternative services to Glasgow.
Manchester Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Manchester Airport and Scotland via Manchester Piccadilly and Manchester Oxford Road, which alternates between Edinburgh and Glasgow.
The Manchester area is well connected to Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston stations on the West Coast Main Line for alternative services to Glasgow.
Omio gives this summary of flights between Heathrow and Manchester airports.
Flights from Manchester Airport to London Heathrow Airport depart on average 8 times per day, taking around 1h 6m. Cheap flight tickets for this journey start at £63 but you can travel from only £16 by coach.
Wrightbus and others will be producing mouse-quiet hydrogen-powered coaches in a couple of years. I suspect these will give short flights a good kicking.
Newcastle Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is three tph between Newcastle and Edinburgh with an additional 5 tpd from Lumo.
- There is two tpd between Newcastle and Glasgow.
- There is one tpd between Newcastle and Stirling.
- From December 2025, Lumo will add two tpd from Newcastle to Glasgow and one tpd from Glasgow to Newcastle.
- In Lumo Will Extend Its King’s Cross And Edinburgh Service To Glasgow, I stated that I believe that Lumo’s Glasgow to Newcastle service will be a late evening ten-car train, so travellers can have a long day in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Newcastle and still return to London.
Lumo would appear to fill in the gap between Newcastle and Glasgow.
Google AI gives this summary of flights between Heathrow and Newcastle airports.
There are usually 5-6 direct flights per day between Newcastle and Heathrow airports. These flights are operated by British Airways. The average flight time is around 1 hour and 10 minutes.
Note.
- In 2024, 497, 469 passengers flew between between Heathrow and Newcastle airports, which is an average of 681 passengers in each direction every day.
- This was an increase of 13.6 % on 2023.
- From December Lumo will be running extra London King’s Cross and Newcastle services, with each train having 402 seats.
- The improvements in rail services in and around Newcastle in recent months, will surely bring more passengers to use trains from Newcastle station.
- Will Lumo also target adverts at airline passengers?
London and Newcastle could be another route for mouse-quiet hydrogen-powered coaches.
Conclusion
These numbers summarise my calculations.
- Currently an average of 13,948 passengers per day fly between London and Central Scotland.
- Currently, there are 26,918 train seats available per day between London and Central Scotland.
- In December 2025, Lumo will add another 804 low-cost train seats between London King’s Cross and Glasgow Queen Street.
- In Spring 2026, Lumo will add 2010 low-cost train seats between London Euston and Stirling.
- From Spring 2026, there will be 29,732 train seats available per day between London and Central Scotland.
- This represents a 10 % increase of seats on the trains between London and Central Scotland.
How many passengers, who normally fly, will switch to using the train?
- Lumo may only offer one class, but you get a trolley and can order food from M & S and others to be delivered to your seat.
- Both LNER and Lumo accept dogs. I don’t know about Avanti.
- All services will be all-electric, when Lumo gets its new electric trains for Stirling, in a few years.
- It looks to me like Lumo could be offering a late train back to London from Edinburgh and Glasgow.
- Digital signalling on the East Coast Main Line should speed up services.
If Lumo to Glasgow and Stirling works out, it could also cut the total carbon footprint of travel between London and Central Scotland.
Hotel Tycoon Reveals Heathrow Expansion Proposal
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the sub-heading.
Hotel tycoon Surinder Arora has announced he is submitting a Heathrow expansion plan which rivals a proposal from the airport’s owners.
These three paragraphs add more details.
The billionaire’s Arora Group said the “primary benefit” of the plan it submitted to the government was a shorter new runway which would avoid the costly and disruptive need to divert the M25 motorway.
Building a 2,800-metre (9,200 ft) third runway instead of the full-length 3,500-metre (11,500 ft) runway planned by the airport would result in “reduced risk” and avoid “spiralling cost”, the company said.
The airport declined to comment on the Arora Group’s proposal.
Note.
- In Heathrow Willing To Build Shorter Runway After Airline Outcry Over Cost, I proved to my satisfaction, that a shorter third runway would work.
- Any scheme that involves diverting the M25, is not fit to get to be on the short list, as construction will be too disruptive.
- I also remember the problems of the M 25, during the construction of Terminal 5.
The last paragraph is the most important, as it illustrates Heathrow’s attitude to outside ideas.
- Was HS4Air, that I talked about in Ambitious £10bn Plans For Gatwick Heathrow HS4Air Rail Service Rejected properly considered?
- Was Heathrow Southern Railway, that I talked about in Why I Like The Heathrow Southern Railway Proposal, properly considered?
Perhaps, Heathrow’s management suffers from Not-Invented-Here Syndrome?
Conclusion
I suspect that Surinder Arora’s project will be a non-starter.
Heathrow Willing To Build Shorter Runway After Airline Outcry Over Cost
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article in The Telegraph.
This is the sub-heading.
BA and Virgin have objected to expansion plan that could see departure fees swell to as much as £100
These are the first two paragraphs.
Heathrow has said it is willing to build a shorter, cheaper third runway following an outcry from airlines over cost.
Europe’s busiest airport will indicate its readiness to negotiate with carriers over runway options when it submits a formal pitch to ministers next week, said Thomas Woldbye, the airport’s chief executive.
This is a map of the new proposal from the DfT.
Note.
- The current Northern and Southern runways, with terminals 5, 3 and 2 between them from West to East.
- Terminal 4 is South of the Southern runway.
- The runway shown in red to the North of the Northern runway is the current proposal for a full-length new runway.
- The runway shown in blue to the North of the Northern runway is the new proposal for a shorter-length new runway.
- The M25 can be picked out going North-South to the West of the current runways and the new shorter runway.
- But the M25 is crossed by the full-length new runway.
It would appear that the proposal for the new shorter runway will avoid putting the M25 in a tunnel.
So hopefully, it would reduce the cost and disruption incurred, by building the new shorter runway.
Was The Price Of Fuel A Factor In The Ahmedabad Plane Crash?
I am asking this question, as I know that a prudent airline, is careful where it buys the fuel for its aircraft.
I asked Google, if jet fuel is more expensive at Gatwick or in India and got this reply.
Jet fuel (Jet A-1/AVTUR) is more expensive at Gatwick Airport compared to India. At Gatwick, the price is 906.8 GBP/1000L. While in India, the price varies by location, for example, ₹97,975.72/kl in Delhi. This indicates that Jet A-1/AVTUR costs more at Gatwick than in India.
I suspect, if they can that Air India would prefer to fill up their planes in India.
Consider.
- The flight that crashed was AI 171.
- The aircraft was a Boeing 787-8.
- The Air India flight that crashed was flying direct to Gatwick Airport, which is a great circle distance of 4254.3 miles.
- Afterwards, it would fly from Gatwick Airport to Goa, which is a great circle distance of 4703.7 miles.
- Wikipedia gives the range of a Boeing 787-8 as 8410 miles.
As a former private pilot, who did many long flights, if I were Air India, I might use a strategy like this.
- Fill the plane with as much fuel, as it can carry at Ahmedabad.
- Fly to Gatwick on an efficient great circle route.
- Top up the plane, with enough fuel to fly safely to Goa, at Gatwick.
The cost of fuel would be minimised, but it would mean a heavy take-off at Ahmedabad.
The temperature at Ahmedabad yesterday was around the low thirties and as the altitude is only 53 metres, I don’t think it would have been a hot-and-high take-off.
Heart Aerospace Relocates Corporate Headquarters To Los Angeles, California
The title of this post, is the same as that of this news item from Heart Aerospace.
This is the sub-heading.
Hybrid-electric airplane manufacturer Heart Aerospace has announced the relocation of its corporate headquarters from Gothenburg, Sweden to Los Angeles, California. This strategic move aims to bolster the company’s product development in the United States, supporting the upcoming experimental flights of its Heart X1 prototype and the future Heart X2 prototype.
These two introductory paragraphs add ,ore detail.
Scheduled for its maiden flight in 2025, the X1 marks a major milestone in Heart’s innovation journey, setting the stage for X2.
“Our move to Los Angeles marks a new chapter in Heart Aerospace’s journey—one that prioritizes iterative development and deeper vertical integration,” said Anders Forslund, co-founder and CEO of Heart Aerospace. “For the X2, we’re developing key technologies like batteries, actuation systems, software, and hybrid-electric hardware in-house. This approach allows us to refine and enhance our systems continuously, just as we’ve done with the X1 prototype, which has seen extensive testing and major design updates since its initial rollout in 2024.”
In some ways, I find this move to California slightly sad, as I suspect most of those associated with the airliner, would have liked to see the development stay in Sweden.
This paragraph gives more details on the reasons for the move.
“We are deeply grateful to our team in Sweden for being part of this chapter of Heart’s journey, and for all the support we have received in Sweden,” said Anders Forslund. “However, as our customers, partners, and investors are increasingly based in the U.S, we see greater opportunity in focusing our resources here. By consolidating our operations in Los Angeles, we can accelerate development, strengthen collaboration, and better position Heart Aerospace for the future.”
They are not mentioned, but I do hope, Trump’s tariffs have nothing to do with it.
Gatwick To Accept ‘Stricter Limits’ On Plane Noise
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the sub heading.
Gatwick Airport has said it will accept stricter limits on aircraft noise and has put forward what it called improved plans in response to the government’s approval for a second runway.
These two introductory paragraphs give a bit of detail about the deal that seems possible.
Last month Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said that she was “minded” to give consent for the airport to bring its second runway into use.
Gatwick has now responded to the Secretary of State’s letter with what it called an “improved noise scheme for local residents.”
This certainly appears to be a fruitful start to negotiations.
The airport also seems to have put forward a package of proposals.
- The airport said it accepts a requirement to have 54% of passengers using public transport before it brings the Northern Runway into operation. – but it needs support.
- Gatwick said it needs help from others, including the Department for Transport, to meet the target.
- The full Gatwick Express train service should be reinstated.
- If the 54% public transport target is not achieved then an alternative cars-on-the-road limit should be met instead.
- If neither the public transport mode share or the cars-on-the-road limit are met, then the second runway would be delayed until £350m of road improvements have been completed.
- The airport also responded on sustainable design and reducing emissions.
I also think, we should note, that Heidi Alexander was seen at Newton Aycliffe, at the launch of Grand Central’s new trains, which I wrote about in Arriva Group Invests In New Battery Hybrid Train Fleet In Boost To UK Rail Industry.
It does seem, that after one trip to Hitachi’s factory in the North-East and she has softened her attitude on open access operators.
Perhaps, the sushi was excellent?
Since that trip to the North-East, Arriva Group have put in another application for an open access service, which I wrote about in Arriva Group Submits Open Access Rail Application To Connect Newcastle And Brighton, Via London Gatwick.
This proposal could mean the following.
- Lots of neglected places between Newcastle and Brighton get an improved and better connected rail service.
- Gatwick gets extra trains, which will increase the proportion of passengers going to Gatwick by train.
- Arriva Group’s owner ; I_Squared meet one of their corporate objectives of improving transport links.
- This could help the airport meet the conditions for a new runway.
- Hitachi get an order for a few more trains.
- An optimist, might even think, that this deal could result in some exports of Hitachi trains.
Being a politician, Heidi will claim the credit, if it all works out well.
The UK’s Worst Airport For Flight Delays Revealed
The title of this post, is the same as that, as this article in The Times.
This is the sub-heading.
The shortage of air traffic controllers is a European problem but some in the industry have blamed early retirement during the pandemic
These are the first two paragraphs.
Gatwick was the country’s worst airport for delays last year as it struggled with air traffic issues and capacity.
Departures were an average of more than 23 minutes late, according to analysis of Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) data. It is the second year in a row it has topped the late league table.
It does look that the first paragraph is saying they need more air traffic controllers and that second runway.
Ironically, one of the adverts in my copy of the article was for Avanti West Coast.
Doncaster-Sheffield Airport And Hydrogen
I believe that the airport of the future will need a lot of hydrogen.
I am probably more optimistic than most, that we will see hydrogen-powered aircraft by around 2035, as my calculations say it is probably the only way to move a hundred people by air at a time, without using fossil fuels.
Airports also have a large number of larger vehicles, that will I believe be ideal for hydrogen power.
Hydrogen buses and coaches will be more common, than they are now.
Heavy goods vehicles are likely to turn to hydrogen power.
Humberside has a large hydrogen network, which is fed by two massive hydrogen stores at AldBrough and Brough.
I suspect that Nimbys will object to hydrogen around airports on safety grounds.
But Doncaster Sheffield Airport could be an ideal location for an airport for hydrogen-powered aircraft.
London Gatwick Implementing Time-Based Separation On Single Mixed-Mode Runway
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Flight Global.
These four paragraphs introduce the technique.
UK air navigation service NATS has applied its intelligent arrival separation system to a mixed-mode single runway for the first time, with implementation at London Gatwick.
The system uses dynamic time-based – rather than distance-based – approach spacing in order to maintain sufficient arrival rates in strong headwind conditions.
Headwinds reduce the groundspeed of inbound aircraft flying at a set airspeed. This means a longer interval between two arrivals spaced a fixed distance apart.
“Having to maintain set separation distances in those conditions reduces the landing rate and can have a significant knock-on effect to the airport operation,” says NATS.
I have flown light aircraft onto main runways at major airports several times, including Cardiff, Dublin, Edinburgh, Hamburg, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Naples, Nice, Southend and Stansted.
In one approach I made to Dublin airport, this type of approach may well have been of assistance.
I was flying into Dublin in my Piper Arrow; G-JMTT.
- I had crossed over Anglesey to leave Wales and I was talking to RAF Valley, whilst I crossed the Irish Sea in more of a direct line for Dublin Airport.
- The RAF handed me over to Dublin Approach, who gave me a series of vectors to point me at the main runway at Dublin Airport.
- Dublin Tower, then gave me the instruction. “Tango-Tango Can you speed it up a bit! There’s a Jumbo on your tail!”
- I replied. “Affirmative! Tango-Tango!” I then lowered the nose and pointed it at the runway to speed things up a bit.
- Dublin Tower, then asked. “Tango-Tango On landing, can you expedite clearing the runway?”
- There was then a brief exchange, where I negotiated my route off the runway, by taking the first taxiway on the left and then stopping.
- After a safe landing and a stop on the taxiway, Dublin Tower called. “Tango-Tango! We’ll give you ten out of ten for that!”
- After which the Jumbo rushed past on the runway, with the pilot giving a quick laugh over the radio.
- Dublin Tower called. “Welcome to Dublin!”
The Irish have different ways of doing things!
But, seriously, NATS are probably just implimenting a computerised form of what good air traffic controllers have done for years.
In that arrival at Dublin, the controllers had stretched the time and distance between my small Piper and the Jumbo, so everything was safe.
There alternative would have been to delay one of the planes.
Conclusion
It looks to me that the application of a new algorithm by NATS, will squeeze a few more aircraft into Gatwick’s single runway.
Heathrow: Where Was The Redundancy?
In the early 1970s, I was involved in a small way, in the design of chemical plants for ICI.
When designing a chemical plant, you obviously want a plant that will have a high availability, so output is maximised, even if some parts have to be shut down.
With chemical plants, you might duplicate some reaction vessels, pipework or pumps for example.
But surely, when you are designing large infrastructure, it should be designed to keep going.
This document from Network Rail is entitled £140m Transformation Of Liverpool Lime Street Completed On Time.
These bullet points serve as sub-headings.
- Track, platform and signalling improvements
- Paving the way for bigger, better trains with more seats for more customers in future
- Part of the wider Great North Rail Project
- Part of #StationsDay – celebrating the £5.2billion investment to regenerate Britain’s rail stations
But I also believe two other important sub-projects were carried out during the work.
The Station Has Been Substantially Prepared For High Speed Two
Consider.
- Platforms were lengthened so they can accept 265.3-metre long eleven-car Class 390 trains.
- Platforms were widened, so they could handle the 607 passengers, that can be carried in an eleven-car train.
- There appears to be five full-size platforms numbered 6-10.
- Is there the possibility of a sixth platform, which is currently numbered E (for Emergency (?))?
- The approaches to the station have been remodeled, so trains can enter the station very efficiently.
- The Class 390 trains are going between Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street stations, in times that are not far off those expected from High Speed Two trains.
As Liverpool Lime Street will only need to handle half-length 200-metre long classic compatible High Speed Two trains, Liverpool Lime Street station is now ready for High Speed Two.
Liverpool Lime Street Station Is Now Effectively Two Five Platform Stations
This OpenRailwayMap shows the platform layout at Liverpool Lime Street station.
Note.
- The platforms indicated by blue dots with numbers are the ten platforms of the station.
- The platforms in the Northern-half of the station are numbered 1-5.
- The platforms in the Southern-half of the station are numbered 6-10.
- All platforms; 1-10 are electrified.
- The white line running diagonally across the map, shows the route of the loop of the Wirral Line.
Click the map to show it to a larger scale.
These are some of my pictures of the station.
It is without doubt, one of the best stations aesthetically and operationally in the world.
The Anonymous Widower 