125 mph Upgrade For MML OLE South Of Bedford
The title of this post, is the same as that of an article in the June 2023 Edition of Modern Railways.
This is the sub-heading.
Targeted Investment Benefits From Project SPEED Approach
The main objective was to upgrade the 1980s electrification between Bedford and St. Pancras, so that it could support 125 mph running by East Midlands Railway’s new Class 810 trains.
Originally, a total replacement was envisaged, but in the end a more selective approach will be carried out.
This paragraph indicates the benefits of the approach.
The proposal for wholesale replacement of the OLE South of Bedford would have cost several hundreds of millions of pounds, whereas the approved scheme comes in at just £84 million, around one-third of the previous cost – testament to the application of SPEED principles.
I have a couple of thoughts.
Network Rail’s Project Management
If I go back to the 1970s and 1980s, when we were developing and selling the project management system; Artemis to the world, we sold very few systems to the UK Government and none to British Rail or the NHS. Later Artemis was used on the Channel Tunnel and the Rail Link to London, the Jubilee Line Extension, sections of the Docklands Light Railway and railways in Australia and Hong Kong.
So it is good to see, Network Rail getting to grips with managing the electrification upgrade of the Midland Main Line with some good project management.
An Encounter With A Group Of Drivers
It might have been five years ago, when I travelled with a group of drivers from East Midlands Trains positioning to St. Pancras.
- One of the observations they had was that the Class 700 trains coming into service were not fast enough as they were only 100 mph trains, whereas their Class 222 trains were capable of 125 mph.
- Since then the Class 360 trains have been introduced on Corby services. These trains have been uprated from 100 to 110 mph.
- We now have the situation, where Class 810 trains capable of running at 125 mph will replace the Class 222 train.
If you look at the traffic at West Hampstead Thameslink station, you can see that Both Thameslink and East Midlands Railway are using the fast lines, through platforms 3 and 4.
The fast lines have a maximum speed of 125 mph North of Luton and generally 100-110 mph between Luton and West Hampstead Thameslink station.
Would it help the timetabling of services on the Midland Main Line, if the Thameslink services were capable of running faster, when they were using the fast lines?
I feel the drivers may have a point.
A Waste Of Valuable Resources Between Paddington And Heathrow
Much of my working life was spent in writing project management software.
I like to think, I was an expert at writing software to juggle resources.
I wrote my first piece of software in that field in ICI, to get my boss out of trouble, after he’d promised the department a program to allocate the department’s office space more efficiently.
Unfortunately, the student, who’d written the software, without leaving anything that worked or any decent instructions.
So I told my boss;Colin, that I’d have a go.
In my previous position at ICI in Runcorn, I’d worked out an algorithm to decode mass spectrometer traces, which started with a rough idea of what was there, which was entered by an operator and then used permutations and combinations to fit the output.
I used the algorithm in every resource scheduler, I ever wrote and it worked a treat.
So when I see a waste of resources, I get angry, as I know those who devised the system could have done a lot better.
Look at these pictures, I took of a Heathrow Express, that I took today.
It is barely ten percent full.
It has become a waste of resources; train, valuable paths in the Heathrow tunnel, and platform space at Paddington.
These are a few thoughts.
Capacity To And From Heathrow
Consider.
- Heathrow Express uses twelve-car Class 387 trains, with a capacity of 672 seats, that run at a frequency of four trains per hour (tph), which is 2,688 seats per hour.
- The Elizabeth Line uses nine-car Class 345 trains, with a capacity of 454 seats, that run at a frequency of six tph, which is 2,724 seats per hour.
- The Class 345 trains can also carry another 1046 standing passengers on each journey, which adds up to a maximum of 6276 standees per hour.
- The Piccadilly Line uses 73 Stock trains, with a capacity of 684 seats, that run at a frequency of twelve tph, which is 8,208 seats per hour.
This gives a capacity of 19,896 passengers, staff and visitors per hour, or which 13,620 get seats.
Expressed as percentages, the four modes of transport are as follows.
- Heathrow Express – 13.5 %
- Elizabeth Line – Sitting – 13.7 %
- Elizabeth Line – Standees – 33.8 %
- Piccadilly Line – 41.2 %
In Effects Of The ULEZ In West London, I said this about journeys to and from the airport.
Heathrow Airport is one of the world’s busiest airports and 76,000 people work at the airport, with many more employed nearby.
The airport handled 61.6 million passengers in 2022, which is a few short of 170,000 per day.
If you consider that those that work at the airport do two trips per day and passengers generally do one, that means there are 322,000 trips per day to or from the airport.
But as it now so easy to get to the Airport using the Elizabeth Line will more people use the new line to meet and greet and say goodbye to loved ones or business associates. Since the Elizabeth Line opened, I’ve met a couple of friends at Heathrow, who were passing through.
I wonder, if that daily journey total of 322,000 could be nearer to 350,000 or even 400,000.
If the ULEZ charge makes some passengers and staff switch from their car to using a bus or train, this probably means that public transport to and from the airport, will need to be boosted by a substantial amount.
322,000 trips per day is 13,416 per hour assuming a 24 hour day.
Consider.
- The ULEZ will drive employees and passengers to trains to Heathrow.
- A lot of would-be travellers to Heathrow have had a tough couple of years.
- Because of the Elizabeth Line more meeters and greeters will go to the airport.
- The Elizabeth Line is making it easy to get to Heathrow for a large proportion of those living in the South-East.
- There have been numerous car parking scandals at Heathrow and other airports.
- Are there enough charging points for electric cars in Heathrow’s parking?
- Parking at Heathrow is expensive.
- Taxis to the airport are very expensive.
- Passengers with large cases can use the Elizabeth Line.
- Good reports of the Elizabeth Line will push people to use it.
- The Elizabeth Line serves the City, Canary Wharf and the West End.
- The Elizabeth Line has a step-free connection with Thameslink.
- Passengers seem to travel with very large cases.
- Passengers seem to be deserting Heathrow Express, as I wrote in Elizabeth Line Takes Fliers Away From Heathrow Express.
Note.
- The train, I took back from Heathrow this morning was full with all seats taken and quite a few standees.
- And it was a Sunday morning!
- We won’t know the effect of the ULEZ until August, but I believe it will be significant.
Obviously, I’m only using rough figures, but they lead me to believe that in a few months, the Elizabeth Line will be at full capacity to and from Heathrow.
Heathrow Express’s Train Paths Should Be Re-Allocated To The Elizabeth Line
This would increase hourly passenger capacity from 19,896 to 23,208 or by seventeen percent.
Great Western Railway would get two extra platforms at Heathrow and the Class 387 trains could be reallocated.
Where Would Great Western Railway Run Trains From Two Extra Platforms?
Consider.
- Various government levelling up funding has been allocated to Wales and the West.
- I talk about the Mid-Cornwall Metro in Landmark Levelling Up Fund To Spark Transformational Change Across The UK.
- The Mid-Cornwall Metro could include direct trains between London and Newquay.
- There are also plans for a new station at Okehampton Parkway.
- Given all the wind farm development in the Celtic Sea, I can see more trains between London and Pembrokeshire.
- Cardiff and Bristol would probably welcome extra services.
I don’t think Great Western Railway will have problems finding destinations to serve from two extra platforms.
What Will Happen To The Class 387 Trains?
Currently, twelve Class 387 trains are used for Heathrow Express.
In The Future Of The Class 387 And Class 379 Trains, I said this.
The Battery-Electric Class 379 Train
I rode this prototype train in 2015.
An Outwardly Normal Class 379 Train
I think it is reasonable to assume, that as battery technology has improved in the seven years since I rode this train, that converting Class 379 trains to battery-electric operation would not be a challenging project.
Creating A Battery-Electric Class 387 Train
If the Class 387 train is as internally similar to the Class 379 train as it outwardly looks, I couldn’t believe that converting them to battery-electric operation would be that difficult.
I could see a lot of the Class 379 and Class 387 trains converted to 110 mph battery-electric trains.
Would Heathrow Express Completely Disappear?
If the Elizabeth Line trains are going between Heathrow Airport and Central London, at a frequency of 10 tph or one train every six minutes, I feel there may be scope for marketing and operational reasons to create a sub-fleet of the Class 345 trains.
The trains would be identical to the Elizabeth Line’s current fleet, except for livery, seating and some internal passenger features.
- Perhaps, they could be called the Heathrow Train boldly on the outside, so even the dimmest passenger didn’t get on a Reading train instead of a Heathrow one.
- All trains would have wi-fi and 4G connectivity. These features have been promised for the Class 345 trains.
- Some coaches would be fitted with luggage spaces for the outsize cases people carry.
I could envisage the Heathrow Trains terminating at a wide number of places in addition to Abbey Wood and Shenfield. Possibilities must include Beaulieu Park, Ebbsfleet, Gravesend, Northfleet and Southend Victoria
BlueFloat, Renantis Ink Exclusivity Agreements For Scottish Floaters
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
The BlueFloat Energy and Renantis partnership has signed exclusivity agreements with Crown Estate Scotland to develop its Sinclair and Scaraben innovation projects which will now be part of a phased delivery of the partnership’s Broadshore project
This is the first two paragraphs.
The two 99.5 MW floating offshore wind farms will now be developed as part of a phased delivery of the partnership’s Broadshore project, located 47 kilometres north of Fraserburgh.
Sinclair and Scaraben will explore innovative foundation technologies, associated fabrication works, and mooring systems with a view to maximise opportunities for the Scottish supply chain, driving local investment and job creation, said the partners.
This would seem to be very sensible for manufacturing and project management reasons.
HS2 Tackles Materials Shortfall By Opening A New On-Site Rebar Components Facility
The title of this post, is the same as that of this news item from High Speed Two.
These are the three bullet points.
- A new facility on HS2’s Copthall tunnel site addresses materials shortages by making rebar products on site
- A team of 14 will make 92,000 rebar couplers needed for the Copthall tunnel in Hillingdon
- The innovative solution has created jobs, saves time and money, reduces waste and cuts lorry movements
These three paragraphs outline what was done.
HS2 has set up a rebar threading facility to address materials shortages at its Copthall tunnel construction site in Hillingdon – creating jobs, cutting waste and reducing lorry movements. The new facility will make 92,000 rebar couplers, needed to construct the Copthall tunnel.
The Skanska Costain STRABAG joint venture (SCS JV) team constructing the tunnel were faced with delays due to a shortfall of available prefabricated fatigue rated rebar couplers, after suppliers had exited the market. To address this, the team has constructed a threading facility on site to produce the required quantities of the materials themselves.
As well as addressing supply shortfall, the threading facility has resulted in a significant financial saving on the project by reducing waste, costs and lorry movements, and overall creating a more efficient way of working.
This looks like the sort of solution that could be applied more often.
There’s also an excellent video.
I have definitely been impressed with the project management of High Speed Two.
SSE, Marubeni & CIP’s Floating Wind Farm In Scotland Could Have 270 Turbines And 6 Offshore Substations
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
SSE Renewables, Marubeni and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) have submitted the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Scoping Report for the array area of their Ossian floating wind farm to Marine Scotland. According to the report, the wind farm could have up to 270 wind turbines and six offshore substations.
Ossian floating wind farm will be one of the world’s largest floating wind farms.
- If it sticks to 3.6 GW, 270 turbines will mean 13 MW turbines.
- 14 MW would be 3.8 GW and 15 MW would be 4 GW, with the same number of turbines.
- If they stick to 3.6 GW, this could be 257 x 14 MW or 240 x 15 MW turbines.
- Knowing ambitious engineers as I do and given that 15 MW turbines are on the way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 15 MW turbines, to get the full 4 GW.
- According to this press release from Siemens Gamesa, they can make the turbine blades for their 15 MW turbines in Hull.
These two paragraphs outline the design possibilities.
For the floating wind turbine foundations, the consortium is considering either semi-submersible or Tension Leg Platform (TLP) structures and three mooring configurations; catenary, semi taut and taut mooring lines. Anchoring options currently under consideration include driven piles, and a number of different embedded anchor types, including suction piles, Drag Embedment Anchors (DEA) and VLA, with up to nine anchors required per foundation.
Floating foundations might not only be used for the wind turbines, but also for Ossian’s offshore substations.
When I look at a project like this, I also think of the project management possibilities.
- Will the six offshore sub-stations be positioned, so that as turbines are installed, they can be commissioned and start generating electricity?
- Is there software to optimise the order of installation?
- Has a specialist project management system been written for wind farms?
If you need a program to do analyse anything like that, buy me a drink and we’ll talk about it.
It’s about time, some of the algorithms in my brain were put to use.
The article also says this.
The 3.6 GW Ossian floating wind farm is planned to be up and running before the end of the decade.
My experience tells me, that if the right philosophy is used, that estimated date could be beaten.
It’s just that it is a project with so many complexities, that a proper mathematical model of its construction would yield benefits.
How Sideshore Technology Can Optimise The Layout Of Your Offshore Wind Farm By Applying State-Of-The-Art Algorithms
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
Smarter offshore wind farm layouts will accelerate the energy transition
These paragraphs outline the problem.
Wind farm layout optimisation is the art of defining the optimal locations of wind turbines, infield cables and substation structures. It presents a golden opportunity to increase project value.
The academic community has done extensive research into numerical wind farm layout optimization, however, in real projects, it is hardly ever applied. Wind farm layout optimisation is complex because it is multidisciplinary. A wind farm development is typically split into work packages (turbine, foundations, cables, substation). The location of each turbine influences the project cost across the various work packages. While wake effects are important, other aspects need to be considered as well. For example, water depth affects the foundation size. Turbulence levels need to be restricted. And cables, seabed preparation, and soil conditions are often neglected, while they too can have a substantial impact on costs. Fully optimising the turbine positions requires not only insight into wake interactions and the cost drivers across all work packages but also a way of linking everything together.
My project management software writing experience would take a system like this further and use the output pf their system to create the project network for a project management system.
The possibilities then are endless.
Maritime UK Launches Offshore Wind Plan
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
Maritime UK has unveiled its Offshore Wind Plan which makes a series of recommendations for how the maritime sector, the offshore wind sector, and governments can work together to maximise growth
These are the first three paragraphs and they outline the plan.
The plan outlines how the growth of offshore wind can provide opportunities across the maritime supply chain in sectors like ports, shipbuilding, crewing, and professional services.
Opportunities identified in the Offshore Wind Plan include building vessels in the UK to support developments and further growing UK ports as centres for manufacturing and assembly for offshore developments
Key recommendations and proposals within the plan include: creating quality career pathways for young people; rewarding higher UK supply chain content in offshore wind projects; reforming the planning system to enable green projects to be delivered quicker; and encouraging lenders and investors to finance infrastructure and vessels
Note.
- Maritime UK have a web site.
- The report seems to be comprehensive.
- The report predicts hundreds of ships to build and service wind farms will be needed.
Overall, Maritime UK feel that the maritime sector has a lot to gain from co-operation with the offshore wind sector.
Improved Service Operation Vessels (SOVs)
I don’t see why the large number of Service Operation Vessels (SOVs) needed to serve all the wind farms around our shores, can’t be designed and substantially built in the UK.
In the 1970s, one of Metier Management Systems’ customers for Artemis were the shipbuilders; Austin & Pickersgill, who at the time were building a cargo ship called the SD14, which had been designed to replace the American Liberty ships.
In total 211 SD14s were built in the UK, Greece, Brazil and Argentina.
SD14 stands for Shelter Deck – 14,000 tonnes.
We surely have the technology from companies like BAe Systems, Rolls-Royce and others to design an advanced Service Operation Vessel.
Elizabeth Line: More Than 100 Million Journeys On Elizabeth Line, Says YouGov
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
These three paragraphs introduce the article.
More than 100 million journeys have been made on London Underground’s new Elizabeth Line since it opened last May, according to a survey.
The YouGov poll suggested 45% of the capital’s residents had also used the line from Reading, Berkshire, to Abbey Wood and Shenfield in Essex.
Transport for London (TfL) said on 1 February it had completed about 600,000 daily journeys.
That is all well and good, but to me, this is the most significant paragraph.
TfL said the railway was “on track to break even” based on operating costs by the end of the 2023/24 financial year.
So it looks like that the planners got the modelling of the operation of the railway correct.
From my experience of project management, I believe that the Elizabeth Line project could have been considered as five main projects.
- The boring of the Central Tunnel
- The updating of the existing branches to Abbey Wood, Heathrow, Reading and Shenfield
- The building of the Class 345 trains
- The signalling
- The fitting out of the stations in the Central Tunnel
Delivery though was a bit patchy!
These are my thoughts on each sub-project.
The Boring Of The Central Tunnel
I was told, that early on, it was realised by the contractors that they didn’t have enough workers, who were certified to work underground.
So the Tunneling and Underground Construction Academy or TUCA in Ilford, was built to train more workers.
This helped the Central Tunnel to be completed on time.
Since then, two more tunnels; the Thames Tideway and the London Power Tunnel have been successfully completed on time and on budget, thus vindicating the building of TUCA.
The Updating Of The Existing Branches To Abbey Wood, Heathrow, Reading and Shenfield
There were a few hiccups, but generally the branches were updated and were operating into Paddington and Shenfield before the line opened.
The Building Of The Class 345 Trains
This wasn’t perfect and Bombardier’s financial state didn’t help, but the trains had good tests running out of Liverpool Street and Paddington.
The Signalling
A lot of commentators have said the signalling was too complicated. But eventually, it all seems to be working.
Was enough testing done away from the Elizabeth Line?
My feeling is that a new UK test track should have been built in the early 2010s, so that some testing could have been done professionally away from London.
The Fitting Out Of The Stations In The Central Tunnel
This was certainly a cause of late handover of stations like Bond Street, Farringdon, Whitechapel and others.
I heard tales, where other projects in London, were offering more money, so consequently workers were moving with the money, thus delaying the completion of stations.
I certainly heard a tale, where all the electricians on one station project moved en masse to complete the new Tottenham Hotspur stadium.
Some of the projects were office projects, paid for by sovereign wealth funds with bottomless projects, so they could make sure their project finished on time.
There were also the problems caused by Brexit, the pandemic and major projects running late in Germany and Europe.
It is my view that Elizabeth Line should have been given more priority, by delaying commercial projects, so that the pool of available labour wasn’t exhausted.
Some of the forest of projects around Elizabeth Line stations, should have been given planning permission, that meant they couldn’t start until Elizabeth Line was finished.
In the 1960s, there was certainly a similar labour problem in Aberdeen. I was told, that the oil majors, who nearly all used the project management system; Artemis, that I had written, talked to each other to make sure the situation didn’t get any worse.
I wonder, if someone was watching the labour shortage problems in City Hall?
Conclusion
I believe that if Elizabeth Line had been given the priority it should have been, that it would have been opened earlier and just as it is now, it would be showing a sensible cash flow.
Now it is a question of catching up financially.
Is Old Street Roundabout A ‘Too Many Cooks’ Project?
The remodelling of Old Street station and the roundabout on top was the lead item on BBC London news this morning.
The project is certainly not going well and seems to be proceeding at a snail’s pace.
Progress On The 24th February 2023
I took these pictures a few days after I wrote the original post.
Compare these pictures with those in Old Street Station – 9th September 2022, which were the last ones I took.
Conclusion
I do wonder, if this project is suffering from too many politicians trying to manage the project at the top.
I suspect Hackney and Islington Councils, the City of London, the Greater London Authority, Transport for London and the Mayor of London are all having a say.
And I suspect other interested parties like Moorfields Hospital, the various bus companies, and many disgruntled passengers are all adding their four pennyworth.
What is needed is for someone with authority to take charge!
Unfortunately for the project, the guy with the authority; Sadiq Khan won’t be interested, as it’s a North London project.
But please someone, get a grip on this important project!
An American View Of The Harrier
In The Times today there is the obituary of Ralph Hooper.
This is the sub-heading.
Aeronautical engineer who designed the revolutionary Harrier jump jet and the versatile Hawk used by the Red Arrows.
I have two tales that must be told.
An Artemis Users Conference In Denver
The project management software I wrote; Artemis, was used by both British Aerospace and McDonnell Douglas to build Harriers.
One day, soon after the end of the Falklands War, I was at an Artemis Users Conference in Denver and got chatting to three users.
- The Project Manager for the US Harrier.
- A Senior Project Manager for Long Beach Naval Shipyard.
- A banker from a famous New York Bank.
Because of the times and two project managers working on military projects, the conversation naturally turned to the recent war.
The banker, then said something like. “What you need is a big flat-top with a squadron of Tomcats, to blow the Argies out of the sky.”
Tomcats were top-of-the-range US naval fighter jets.
Whereupon, the McDonnell Douglas guy said. “We’re getting the weather reports! There’s no other aircraft, that can take-off and land in the terrible conditions!”
An A-10 Pilot’s View Of The Harrier
In the 1970s, I used to drink in the Clopton Crown pub. Sometimes, I got drinking with one of the USAF A10 Thunderbolt II pilots from Bentwaters.
As I was a pilot myself at the time, we had quite a few chats about flying.
One night he told how two A10s would fly as a pair, at a fairly low altitude.
To protect themselves from MiGs, one would break away and do a steep turn through a complete circle, scanning the horizon for any threat.
Then the other would do the movement the other way.
He felt that in hostile combat, that they would give any opposition fighter a real kicking, as the attacker would have to keep out of the way of two GAU-8 Avenger 30 mm Gatling-style autocannons, firing large numbers of heavy shells.
He also told me, that he had flown A-10s up against other aircraft on a simulator. He just said, he found AV-8As, as the US called Harriers, very difficult to beat.
The Anonymous Widower 