Rolls-Royce Chief Warren East Spies Rebound For Air Travel
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on The Times.
It is a must-read article.
This is the first paragraph.
Warren East, the outgoing chief executive of Rolls-Royce, has sounded a bullish note on aviation’s recovery from Covid-19, reporting increased demand from the jet-engine maker’s airline customers and expressing his belief that China will gradually open up to international travel.
Certainly, with all the chaos at the Channel this weekend, people are starting to travel again.
Support For The Military
This is a paragraph in the article.
Tom Bell, head of Rolls-Royce Defence, said the company was in talks with the US and UK militaries about supplying “deployable” reactors for military bases.
I’m sure that a reactor would have advantages to a large diesel or gas-turbine generator to power a military base.
- Military bases need a lot of power.
- It would not need refuelling every day.
- It could be connected to an electrolyser, to generate hydrogen for vehicles.
- It would be a lot quieter.
- I wonder, if it could be transported in a large transport aircraft.
But I feel, it might have other applications.
- It could provide power support after a large earthquake or natural disaster.
- It could provide power in remote or difficult locations.
- If the only power station for a remote community had a catastrophic failure, a deployable reactor could be brought in.
- It could provide power for a large construction site, which would help to decarbonise the construction.
- Power would be zero-carbon at point of generation.
The reactors might even be rail-transportable, so they could be moved to where they are needed safely and quickly.
But I don’t think they would necessarily be the same size as the Rolls-Royce SMRs, which are 470 MW.
A Scalable Reactor
This is a paragraph in the article.
Rolls also has a contract with the UK Space Agency to develop a “micro reactor” for space vehicles and satellites, Bell added. “These are really exciting opportunities for us to not only perpetuate our business undersea, at sea, on land, in the air, but also to go to space,” he said. East noted the advantage of nuclear reactors in space: “You can’t have air-breathing engines on the moon.”
Note.
- East is Warren East, who is the outgoing Chief Executive of Rolls-Royce.
- Nuclear power sources have been used in space before, usually by using an isotope, that gives out heat, as it decays.
- How small is micro?
- The US deployed a 1.75 MW nuclear power plant in Antarctica under the Army Nuclear Power Program. That reactor also provided heating and hot water. It is worth reading the Wikipedia entry, especially the section about the MM-1 reactor.
It does seem that Rolls-Royce are designing a reactor that can be scaled in size, to cover a whole spectrum of applications.
UK-German Energy Link Reaches Financial Close
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on renews.biz.
These are the three introductory paragraphs.
A multibillion-euro 725 km interconnector between the UK and Germany has reached financial close, paving the way for construction works to begin in the coming months.
The £2.4bn (€2.8bn) NeuConnect interconnector will form an “invisible energy highway” with subsea cables allowing up to 1.4GW of electricity to flow in either direction between the UK and Germany and will help deliver a more secure and resilient energy supply, particularly as more renewable generation is added.
Independent analysis shows the project will create over £1.7bn in UK consumer benefits over 25 years.
Other points about NeuConnect include.
- It has been privately funded by a consortium of over twenty national and international banks.
- It will run between the Isle of Grain and a the new Fedderwarden substation in Wilhelmshaven.
- It should be operational in 2028.
Although, it is bi-directional, it appears that one of its major uses will be to provide Germany with UK wind energy to compensate for the loss of Putin’s bloodstained gas.
Will Our Gas Supplies Hold Up This Winter?
I am prompted to ask this question because of this article in The Times, which is entitled ‘Really High Gas Prices’ Loom For UK As Europe Faces Winter Rationing.
These are a few thoughts.
UK Gas-Fired Power Station Capacity
This entry in Wikipedia is entitled List Of Natural Gas Power Stations In The United Kingdom.
This statement summarises the capacity.
There are currently 32 active gas fired combined cycle power plants operating in the United Kingdom, which have a total generating capacity of 28.0 GW.
This section is entitled Decline Of Gas For Power In The United Kingdom, where this is said.
In 2016 gas fired power stations generated a total of 127 TWh of electricity. Generation has dropped to 119 TWh in 2017, 115 TWh in 2018, 114 TWh in 2019 and 95 TWh in 2020. The decline is largely due to the increase in renewable sources outweighing the decline of coal, and an overall reduction in demand.
Putting these pictures as a table and applying a simple numerical analysis technique gives the following.
- 2016 – 127 TWh
- 2017 – 119 TWh – Drop of 8TWh
- 2018 – 115 TWh – Drop of 4 TWh
- 2019 – 114 TWh – Drop of 1 TWh
- 2020 – 95 TWh – Drop of 19 TWh
In four years the amount of electricity generated each year by gas-fired power stations has dropped by an amazing 8 TWh on average per year.
Factors like the increase in renewables and an overall reduction in demand will still apply.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a continuous reduction of electricity generated by gas of 8 TWh per year.
Figures like these could be possible.
- 2021 – 87 TWh
- 2022 – 79 TWh
- 2023 – 71 TWh
- 2024 – 63 TWh
- 2025 – 55 TWh
- 2026 – 47 TWh
- 2027 – 39 TWh
I have stopped these figures at 2027, as one major event should happen in that year, as Hinckley Point C is planned to switch on in June 2027, which will contribute 3.26 GW. or 28.5 TWh per year.
In Will We Run Out Of Power This Winter?, I also summarised the energy that will be produced by the various projects, that were signed off recently in the Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4′, where I said this.
Summarising the figures for new capacity gives.
- 2022 – 3200 MW
- 2023 – 1500 MW
- 3024 – 2400 MW
- 2025 – 6576 MW
- 2026 – 1705 MW
- 2027 – 7061 GW
This totals to 22442 MW.
Note that a 1 GW power source would generate 8.76 TWh of electricity per year.
One problem we may have is too much electricity and as we are not blessed with much storage in the UK, where will be able to put it?
In a strange way, Vlad the Mad may solve the problem, by cutting off Europe’s gas.
Jackdaw Gas Field
This document on the Shell web site is the standard information sheet for the Jackdaw field development.
This is the short description of the development.
The Jackdaw field is an uHPHT reservoir that will be developed with a not permanently
attended WHP. Four wells will be drilled at the Jackdaw WHP. Produced fluids will be
exported via a subsea pipeline to the Shearwater platform where these will be processed
before onward export via the Fulmar Gas Line and the Forties Pipeline System.
The proposed development may be summarised as follows:
- Installation of a new WHP
- Drilling of four production wells
- Installation of a new approximately 31 km pipeline from the Jackdaw WHP to the Shearwater platform
- Processing and export of the Jackdaw hydrocarbons via the Shearwater host platform
First production expected between Q3 – Q4 2025.
Note.
- Production could start in just over three years.
- This gas will come ashore at the Bacton gas terminal in Norfolk.
- Bacton has two gas interconnectors to Europe; one to Belgium and one to The Netherlands, so is ideally connected to export gas to Europe.
Given the high gas prices, I am sure any company would pull out all the stops to shorten the project development time.
HyDeploy
I described HyDeploy, which is a project to blend up to 20 % of hydrogen into the distributed natural gas in HyDeploy.
In The Mathematics Of Blending Twenty Percent Of Hydrogen Into The UK Gas Grid, I worked how much electricity would be needed for HyDeploy’s target blending of hydrogen.
It was 8.2 GW, but!
- It would save a lot of carbon emissions.
- Boilers and other appliances wouldn’t have to be changed, although they would probably need a service.
- It would significantly cut the amount of natural gas we need.
- It might even be a product to export in its own right.
I certainly feel that HyDeploy is a significant project.
Gas Imports And Existing Fields
This entry in Wikipedia is entitled Energy in the United Kingdom.
In this section, which is entitled Natural Gas, this is said.
United Kingdom produced 60% of its consumed natural gas in 2010. In five years the United Kingdom moved from almost gas self-sufficient (see North Sea gas) to 40% gas import in 2010. Gas was almost 40% of total primary energy supply (TPES) and electricity more than 45% in 2010. Underground storage was about 5% of annual demand and more than 10% of net imports.
Gasfields include Amethyst gasfield, Armada gasfield, Easington Catchment Area, East Knapton, Everest gasfield and Rhum gasfield.
Consider.
- We know that the amount of gas used for generating electricity is reducing , due to the increase in renewables and an overall reduction in demand.
- The cost of both gas imports and exports are rising.
- In two years time the Jackdaw gas field should be producing gas.
Would it be sensible to squeeze as much gas out of the existing fields, as by the time they run out, renewables, an overall reduction in demand, the Jackdaw gasfield and other factors will mean that we will have enough gas and electricity for our needs.
The World Economic Forum Talk About Gravitricity
This article on the World Economic Forum is entitled How Gravity Batteries Will Help Us Switch To Renewable Energy.
The article is a must-read and Gravitricity must be very pleased with the contents and placement of the article.
As an investor in Gravitricity, through crowd-funding, I am certainly pleased.
Hydrogen Fuel Cells Could Get A Lot Cheaper With Newly Developed Iron Catalyst
The title of this post, is the same ass that of this article on Hydrogen Fuel News.
These are the first two paragraphs.
Scientists have been looking for an alternative to precious metals such as platinum for decades, in the hopes of bringing down the cost of hydrogen fuel cells.
An alternative to a platinum catalyst that costs considerably less will help to bring down the cost of hydrogen fuel cells and of using H2 as a carbon emission-free fuel. This would make it cheaper to both produce and use H2.
Researchers at the University of Buffalo, appear to be on the road to using iron as an affordable catalyst.
This paragraph describes he structure of the catalyst.
The researchers looked to iron because of its low cost and abundance. On its own, iron does not perform as well as platinum as a catalyst, particularly because it isn’t as durable in the face of highly corrosive and oxidative environments such as those within hydrogen fuel cells. The researchers bonded four nitrogen atoms to the iron in order to overcome that barrier, followed by embedding the material within a few graphene layers “with accurate atomic control of local geometric and chemical structures,” said Wu.
Gang Wu is leading the research.
In the early 1970s, I worked with one of ICI’s catalyst experts and he said, that improvements in this area will be large in the future.
Increasingly, I see his prediction being proved right, in the varied fields, where catalysts are used.
Global Electrolyzer Capacity To Reach 8.52GW By 2026
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Power Technology.
This is the first paragraph.
GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Hydrogen Electrolyzers Market Report Market Size, Share and Trends Analysis by Technology, Installed Capacity, Generation, Key Players and Forecast, 2021-2026’, reveals that the global electrolyzer capacity is estimated to grow to 8.52GW in 2026. Hydrogen is gaining prominence as a critical component of the energy transition, as significant policy support and government commitment to deep decarbonisation are spurring investments in hydrogen. By the end of 2021, seventeen governments released hydrogen strategies, with more than 20 governments publicly announcing that they are developing strategies, and numerous companies planning to tap business opportunities in hydrogen.
Hydrogen certainly appears to be coming.
In The Mathematics Of Blending Twenty Percent Of Hydrogen Into The UK Gas Grid, I calculated how much electricity would be needed to blend twenty percent of hydrogen into the UK gas grid.
To achieve this blending, which would reduce our carbon emissions by a large amount and still be compatible with existing boilers and appliances would 8.2 GW of electricity to generate the hydrogen.
The world needs to be developing more electrolysers for green hydrogen.
Will We Run Out Of Power This Winter?
Someone asked me if we will run out of power, if Vlad the Mad cuts all the gas to Western Europe.
This was my reply.
It appears that this year, 3.2 GW of new offshore wind farms could start producing electricity, followed by similar amounts in both 2023 and 2024.
One of those to come on stream about now is the 1.4 GW Hornsea 2 wind farm!
The follow-up 2.9 GW Hornsea 3, signed a contract last week for delivery in 2026/27.
Moray East in Scotland and Triton Knoll off Lincolnshire, are also scheduled to come on stream this year and they’re around 900 MW each.
As someone, who used to write project management software, I hope the companies building these fields have enough resources, in terms of people, boats, cranes and money. But as the companies are all the Shells of the wind industry, I would hope they have got their sums right.
What About The Contracts for Difference Awarded In Allocation Round 4?
We are currently fighting two wars at the moment.
- The main war in Ukraine, where we are giving that unfortunate country all the help we can.
- The secondary war in the UK against energy prices.
Would it help our cause in both wars, if we produced more energy?
- More renewable energy would reduce our dependence on imported gas.
- The gas saved could go to Europe.
- Europe would not be buying Vlad the Mad’s bloodstained gas.
- Replacing gas with solar and wind power might reduce energy prices.
If I put myself in the position of a struggling farmer with a contract for difference to build a solar farm on a poor field, I would want that farm to be earning money as soon as possible.
- Now that I have the contract can I start assembling that solar farm?
- Similar arguments can probably be used for onshore wind, which must be easier to assemble, than offshore wind.
- I don’t think that the hard-pressed energy suppliers would bother, if they received some quality cheap electricity earlier than they expected.
- Obviously, all the cables and the substations would need to be in place.
So I think that it is reasonable to assume, that energy might ramp up quicker than expected.
It could even be more front-loaded, if all the installers got a shift on.
Every little helps!
New Renewable Energy In 2023?
These wind farms are scheduled for commissioning in 2023.
- Neart Na Gaoithe – 450 MW
- Sofia Offshore Wind Farm – 1400 MW
- Seagreen Phase 1 – 1075 MW
We could see 2925 MW of offshore wind power commissioned in 2023.
New Renewable Energy In 2024?
These renewable energy sources are scheduled for commissioning in 2024.
- Dogger Bank A – 1200 MW
- Round 4 Solar – 125.7 MW
- Dogger Bank B – 1200 MW
- Dogger Bank C – 1200 MW
Note, where a windfarm is given a commissioning date of 2023/24 in Wikipedia , I will put it in 2024.
We could see 3726 MW of renewable energy commissioned in 2024.
New Renewable Energy In 2025?
These renewable energy sources are scheduled for commissioning in 2025.
- Moray West – 1200 MW
- Round 4 Solar – 1958 MW
- Round 4 Onshore Wind – 888 MW
- Round 4 Energy from Waste – 30 MW
- Vanguard Boreas Phase 1 – 1400 GW
We could see 6476 MW of renewable energy commissioned in 2025.
New Renewable Energy In 2026?
These renewable energy sources are scheduled for commissioning in 2026.
- East Anglia 1 North – 800 MW
- East Anglia 2 – 900 MW
- Round 4 Tidal Stream – 5.62 MW
We could see 1705 MW of renewable energy commissioned in 2026.
New Renewable Energy In 2027?
These renewable energy sources are scheduled for commissioning in 2027.
- Round 4 Tidal Stream – 35.2 MW
- Round 4 Floating Offshore Wind – 32 MW
- Round 4 Offshore Wind – 5594 MW
- Hornsea 3 Offshore Wind – 2852 MW
- Hinckley Point C Nuclear – 3,260 MW
We could see 13173 MW of renewable energy commissioned in 2027.
Too Much Electricity!
Summarising the figures for new capacity gives.
- 2022 – 3200 MW
- 2023 – 2925 MW
- 3024 – 3726 MW
- 2025 – 6476 MW
- 2026 – 1705 MW
- 2027 – 11773 MW
This totals to 28554 MW.
One problem we may have is too much electricity and as we are not blessed with much storage in the UK, where will be able to put it?
In a strange way, Vlad the Mad may solve the problem, by cutting off Europe’s gas.
We have a few interconnectors, where we can export the electricity to allow the Belgians, Dutch, French and the Germans to have a shower.
- BritNed – 1 GW – Isle of Grain and Rotterdam
- ElecLink – 1 GW – England and France through the Channel Tunnel.
- HVDC Cross-Channel – 2 GW – England and France
- IFA-2 – 1 GW – England and France
- Nemo Link – 1 GW – Richborough and Zeebrugge
- North Sea Link – 1.4 GW – Blyth and Norway
- Viking Link – 1.4 GW – Lincolnshire and Denmark
It looks like construction may be starting soon for another interconnector. NeuConnect will have a capacity of 1.4 GW between the Isle of Grain and Wilhelmshaven.
Conclusion
If I was the German Chancellor, I’d do everything in my power to accelerate the construction of NeuConnect!
2.2 GW Of Solar Farms To Be Installed In The UK
This document from the Department of Business, Industry and Industrial Strategy lists all the Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4 results for the supply of zero-carbon electricity that were announced yesterday.
There were sixty-six solar power projects, that totalled up to 2.2 GW, which gives an average size of 33.3 MW.
- Many complain that we don’t have enough sun in this country, so surely solar farms totalling up to 2.2 GW is an astonishing figure.
- For a comparison, Hinckley Point C will supply 3.26 GW.
- In Cleve Hill Solar Park, I wrote about the largest, which will be a 350 MW solar farm with a 700 MWh battery.
- Sixty-one are in England, two are in Wales and surprisingly three are in Scotland, So being that far North isn’t as bad for solar power, as you might think.
- It looks like 251.38 MW are proposed to be installed in 2023/24 and 1958.03 MW in 2024/25.
The Wikipedia entry for Solar Power In The United Kingdom, gives these numbers.
UK solar PV installed capacity at the end of 2017 was 12.8 GW, representing a 3.4% share of total electricity generation. Provisionally, as of the end of January 2019 there was 13,123 MW installed UK solar capacity across 979,983 installations. This is an increase of 323 MW in slightly more than a year. A new record peak generation from photovoltaics was set at 9.68 GW on 20 April 2020.
How many people correctly predicted that the UK would be be generating so much energy from the sun?
How Many Of These Solar Farms Will Be Co-located With Batteries Or Wind Farms?
Consider.
- Cleve Hill Solar Park will be a 350 MW solar farm, that is co-located with a 700 MWh battery.
- Is it significant that the battery could supply 350 MW for two hours?
- It also connects to the grid at the same substation, that connect the London Array offshore wind farm.
- As substations are complicated and probably expensive bits of electrical gubbins, sharing a substation is probably a good idea to save costs.
I hope that companies like wind and solar farm developers, the National Grid and Network Rail talk a lot to each other, so that efficient infrastructure is developed.
Conclusion
Over the years 2023 to 2025, we should develop these solar farms at a rate of around 0.7 GW per year.
Can we sustain that rate in the future or will we run out of land?
Cleve Hill Solar Park
This document from the Department of Business, Industry and Industrial Strategy lists all the Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4 results for the supply of zero-carbon electricity that were announced yesterday.
There were sixty-six solar power projects, that totalled up to 2.2 GW, which gives an average size of 33.3 MW.
I looked at the list and found the following.
- All contracts had the same strike price of £45.99 per MWh.
The largest solar farm with a contract is Cleve Hill Solar Park.
- ,Cleve Hill Solar Park received a contract for 112 MW.
- According to Wikipedia, the solar park will have a battery of 700 MWh.
- Will the battery enable the solar park to supply 112 MW on a twenty-four seven basis?
- According to Wikipedia, solar farms have a capacity factor of about 10 % in the UK.
- The Cleve Hill Solar Park will have a capacity of 350 MW.
- On a typical day, it will generate 350 * 24 *0.1 = 840 MWh
- The Contract for Difference mechanism means they get the strike price for each MWh of electricity up to the level in the contract, which is 112 MW.
- I suspect that for several months of the year, the solar park will be able to supply 112 MW to the grid.
- I do feel that overnight and on sunless winter days, the system will provide a lot less electricity.
- This page on the EMR web site explains Contract for Difference mechanism.
This extract from Wikipedia, describes, the solar park’s connection to the National Grid.
Across the marsh run the 400kV powerlines of the national grid. They are supported by eight 40m pylons. There is a large 150/400kV electricity substation at Cleve Hill, serving the London Array offshore wind farm that lies to the north beyond the mouth of the Thames Estuary. The output from the Solar Farm will use this substation to connect to the grid. Here, a battery array will placed, that will charge from the sunlight during the day and release the energy at night when it is needed.
I can build a table showing the earnings on a per day and per year basis, against average output.
- 20 MW – £22,076.20 per day – £8,057,448 per year
- 50 MW – £55,188 per day – £20,143,620 per year
- 70 MW – £77,263.20 per day – £28,201,068 per year
- 100 MW – £110,376 per day – £40,287,240 per year
- 112 MW – £123,621.12 per day – £45,121,708.80 per year
Note.
- I have assumed the year is 365 days.
- As a time-expired Control Engineer, I know that the battery can be optimised to supply the electricity, when it is needed and the price is highest.
- I wouldn’t be surprised to see co-operation between the London Array and Cleve Hill Solar Farm, as on a sunless but windy day, there may be scope to store excess wind energy in the battery for later release.
On this brief look, it appears that owning a solar farm, can be a nice little-earner.
Thoughts On The Battery
Consider.
- According to Wikipedia, the solar park will have a battery of 700 MWh.
- One of the largest lithium batteries in the UK is the one at Clay Tye in Essex, which is just under 200 MWh.
I suspect that lithium ion batteries will not be used.
Highview Power are building a 250 MWh battery in Manchester.
- This battery will be able to supply 50 MW.
- The batteries use liquid air as an energy storage medium.
- The company says the design can be extended up to a GWh by adding more tanks for the liquid air.
- The only fossil fuels used in Highview’s batteries is probably some lubricating oil.
I feel that a Highview battery or something similar would be an ideal solution at Cleve Hill Solar Farm.
I should be noted that the London Array is a 630 MW wind farm, so the London Array and Cleve Hill Solar Farm have a combined nameplate capacity of 980 MW.
I feel there is a case for a larger battery at the substation, to give the grid an almost-guaranteed GW all day.
It would be large than most if not all gas-fired power stations.
It could be used to balance the grid.
The controlling software would optimise the finances by buying and selling electricity at the right time.
Orbital Marine Power Awarded Two CfDs As Part Of UK Government Renewable Energy Auction
The title of this post, is the same as that of this news item on the Orbital Marine Power web site.
This is the heart of the news item.
Orbital, the renewable energy company focused on the development and global deployment of its pioneering floating tidal stream turbine technology, has been awarded two contracts for difference (CfDs) in the UK Allocation Round 4 (AR4) process.
This is a significant milestone in the company’s growth, with these CfDs underpinning the delivery of multi-turbine projects in Eday, Orkney.
Capable of delivering 7.2MW of predictable clean energy to the grid once completed, these Orbital tidal stream energy projects can power to up to 7,200 homes, supporting the UK’s security of supply, energy transition and broader climate change objectives.
This positive outcome also means Orbital can make a transformative investment in its UK supply chain, with around 150 jobs expected to be created through the manufacture and installation phase alone. On a jobs per MW installed basis, this would represent an unprecedented level of UK role creation for the construction phase of a renewable energy project.
It is good to see tidal power taken seriously.
The Strike Price For Tidal Stream Energy
Consider.
- Four contracts have been awarded for tidal stream energy.
- All have strike price of £178.54 per MWh of electricity.
- This may seem high, as all large wind farms have a strike price of only £37.35 per MWh of electricity.
On the other hand, there is a level playing field for all tidal stream energy developers. Just as there is for large wind farm developers, who have to live with £37.35 per MWh of electricity.
I think it will incentivise the developers and give them a reward for their technology.
All these strike prices are also mapped out for fifteen years, when trying to raise money for your tidal stream gubbins, you will know exactly where you stand.
I’ll give the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, at least four out of five for their strike price regime!
The Anonymous Widower 