Angus Peter Campbell: I’m In Two Minds About The Renewable Energy Revolution
The title of the post, is the same as that of this article in the Aberdeen Press and Journal.
This is the sub-heading.
The debate (argument) between development and environmentalism is as old as the hills.
In the article, Campbell puts all sides of the arguments over the Coire Glas pumped storage hydro-electric scheme, and the article is very much a must read.
I feel that this 1500 MW/30 GWh scheme should be built, as like Hinckley Point C and Sizewell C, it takes a large bite out of the new energy storage capacity that is needed.
But if we do build this large project, we should think very hard about how we do it.
These are a few thoughts.
Low Carbon, Disturbance And Noise During Construction
High Speed Two are doing this and I wrote about it in HS2 Smashes Carbon Target.
I do subject though, that increasingly large construction projects can go this way.
Electric Trucks, Cranes And Other Equipment
High Speed Two and big mining companies are increasingly using electric mining trucks, cranes and other equipment.
As this sort of equipment, also provides a better environment for workers, I suspect we’ll see more electric equipment.
Hydrogen Trucks And Construction Equipment
Hydrogen could play a big part and rightly so.
It is ideal for heavier equipment and one of its biggest advocates and developers is JCB.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a decision about an onsite electrolyser being made soon.
Low Carbon Concrete
There are various methods of making low- and zero-carbon concrete, some of which incorporate carbon dioxide into the material.
Use Of Loch Lochy And The Caledonian Canal
I wouldn’t be surprised if just as the Thames in London was used in the construction of Crossrail and the Northern Line extension, Loch Lochy and The Caledonian Canal will be used to take out construction spoil.
There’s certainly a lot of ways to be innovative in the movement of men and materials.
Conclusion
The construction of Coire Glas will make an epic documentary.
National Grid Energise World’s First T-Pylons
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from National Grid.
These are the four bullet points.
- Electricity is flowing to homes and businesses through the first new pylon design in the UK for nearly 100 years.
- Major milestone in National Grid’s Hinkley Connection project to connect 6 million homes and businesses in the South West to home grown, low carbon energy.
- The T-design, with a single pole and cross shaped arms, is around a third shorter than the traditional design with a smaller ground footprint.
- The T-pylons, along with a new substation and underground cabling, are now incorporated into National Grid’s electricity transmission network delivering electricity in Somerset and across England and Wales.
This is the first paragraph.
National Grid has successfully energised 36 of the world’s first T-pylons between Bridgwater and Loxton in Somerset. The new shaped pylons have been constructed as part of the £900 million Hinkley Connection Project, a new 57 km high-voltage electricity line that will connect six million homes and businesses to new sources of home grown, low carbon energy and help the UK to meet its net zero by 2050 target.
There is a video in the press release, which is well worth a view.
- The size of the pylons certainly reduces their visibility.
- It appears there are seven cables on either side.
These pictures show the transmission lines to the Sizewell power station site.
Note.
- The lower height is very noticeable.
- There seem’s to be a lot more wires.
- I would assume, that the reduced number of components, reduces the cost of installation and maintenance.
The installation proved that even in the most mundane of applications, innovation can bring positive results.
The T-pylons are a design by Danish company; Bystrup.
This is the specification from their comprehensive web-page.
- Power – 2 x 400 kV
- Height – 35 metres / 114 feet
- Units/km – 3 (5 units/mile)
- Material – Hot-dip galvanised steel, painted
- Assembly – On-site and quick – less than 10 parts
- Installation – Simple monopile foundation
- Production possible anywhere in the world
- Developed – 2011-2014
They’ve also won several awards.
- 1st prize in int. competition for RIBA
- Nominated for the IET Innovation Award 2014
- Gold Prize, CIGRE Seoul 2017
- Award winner, UK Steel Awards (SSDA) 2017
I would hope to see more in the UK.
Equinor And SSE Eye Green Hydrogen Production For 1.32 GW Dogger Bank D
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
SSE Renewables and Equinor, the developers of the Dogger Bank Wind Farm in the UK, are exploring two options for Dogger Bank D, the fourth wind farm the partners are looking to build as part of the development. These include using Dogger Bank D for electricity that would feed into the UK grid and/or for green hydrogen production.
This says to me, that depending on need, electricity from the Dogger Bank Wind Farms and D in particular, can be distributed in the grid or converted into green hydrogen.
- The article says that the electrolyser could become the UK’s largest green hydrogen project
- There will be plenty of hydrogen storage in the salt caverns at Aldbrough, which can currently store the equivalent of 320 GWh of electricity, It is currently being expanded to be one of the largest hydrogen stores in the world according to this page on the SSE web site.
- There are currently two gas-fired power stations at Keadby and they will in a few years be joined by a third, that will be fitted with carbon-capture and a hydrogen-fueled power station.
The various wind farms, power stations and gas storage on Humberside are growing into a very large zero-carbon power cluster, with an output approaching six GW.
Any shortfall in wind output, could be made-up by using the Keadby 3 gas-fired power station with carbon capture or the Keadby hydrogen power station.
Conclusion
Humberside is getting a cluster of power stations and wind farms, that can produce almost twice the electricity of Hinckley Point C nuclear power station.
Thoughts On The Mini-Budget
This article on the BBC is entitled At A Glance: What’s In The Mini-Budget?.
If nothing else KK has whipped up a storm, with the most tax-cutting budget in decades.
But!
According to my calculations in Will We Run Out Of Power This Winter?, the planned offshore wind that will be installed between 2022 and 2027 will be at least 19 GW. About 3 GW of this offshore wind is already producing electricity.
To this must be added 3.26 GW for Hinckley Point C, 2 GW for solar and 0.9 GW for onshore wind in Scotland, which will be developed by 2027.
So we have 25.2 GW for starters.
Following on from this is the 27.1 GW from ScotWind, about 4 GW from the Celtic Sea, 3 GW from Morecambe Bay and 10 GW from Aker’s Northern Horizons. All of these are firm projects and some are already being planned in detail.
These wind and solar farms are the collateral for KK’s borrowing.
The corporate tax changes will hopefully attract world class energy and manufacturing companies to set up UK-domiciled subsidiaries to develop more offshore wind farms and manufacture the turbines and the electrical gubbins close to where they will be installed.
As more wind farms are built, many GW of electricity and tonnes of hydrogen will be exported to Europe.
Note that 1 GW for a day costs around £ 960,000 and for a year costs £350.4 million.
A big benefit of all this electricity, will be that we won’t need to frack.
Technologies like green hydrogen, that will be created by electrolysis will reduce our need for gas.
We might develop a gas field like Jackdaw, to give us gas for a backup with a few gas-fired power stations, for when the wind doesn’t blow, but gas will only have a minor roll.
The force of the maths is with KK!
The Future Is Blowing In The Wind
In Can We Move The Equilibrium Point Of The Energy Market?, I have been adding up all of the renewable energy to be commissioned in the next few years.
I am only looking at schemes that are being built or are consulting the public, have contracts and are by reputable and reliable developers, like BP, Equinor, Orsted, Scottish Power, Shell, SSE and Wattenfall
The numbers are not small.
This year 3.2 GW, should be commissioned, with another 2.3 GW in 2023. But the total between now and 2028 is at least 30 GW plus Hinckley Point C. In fact it could be higher, as I have ignored nearly all of the 25 plus GW of the Scotwind projects in the seas around Scotland.
As the UK needs about 23 GW to wash its face and we already have 25.5 GW of renewables installed, by the mid point of the decade, we should be able to reorganise our energy, by cutting gas usage for power generation and exporting surpluses to Europe.
The future is blowing the wind!
Can We Move The Equilibrium Point Of The Energy Market?
Equilibrium In Systems
As a Control Engineer, I believe that most systems eventually end up in a state of equilibrium.
How many football batches have you watched between two evenly-matched teams that have ended, where the statistics are even and the match has ended in a nil-nil draw or a win by one goal.
Now suppose one manager makes an inspired substitution, one important player gets injured or one player gets sent off.
One team will have an advantage, the statistics will no longer be even and one team will probably win.
The equilibrium point will have been shifted.
Zopa’s Stable Peer-to-Peer Lending System
I used Zopa’s peer-to-peer lending system for several years and found it a very stable system, that over the years paid a steady return of between four and five percent before tax.
I even developed a method to maximise my savings income, which I wrote about in The Concept Of Hybrid Banking.
It was a sad day for me, when Zopa closed its ground-breaking peer-to-peer lending system.
As a Control Engineer, I believe that Zopa’s strength was a well-written computerised algorithm, that matched lenders and borrowers and spread the risk.
- There was no bias in the system, introduced by personal prejudices.
- The algorithm was agnostic and judged all borrowers on their profiles and credit ratings alone.
- Money was allocated under fair rules for borrowers.
- I never borrowed from Zopa, but from my experience of owning half of a finance company, their terms were the most customer-friendly I’ve ever seen.
Someone will go back to the basics of peer-to-peer lending and it can’t be soon enough for both savers and borrowers.
Zopa In Troubled Times
Over the years that I invested in Zopa, my returns stayed very much the same, as the algorithm seemed to be able to maintain sufficient difference between lenders’ returns and borrowers’ rates. I also suspect the dynamics of savvy lenders and borrowers helped to stabilise both the system and the difference between rates.
It even worked through the Banking Crisis of 2008 and other mini-hiccups along the way.
My Conclusion About Zopa
As someone, who knows computing well, I would rate Zopa, one of the best computer systems, I’ve ever seen.
But it showed how a large transactional system can work well.
One of the keys to its success and smooth operation was that the computer was totally in control and it took all transaction decisions without direct human intervention.
The Energy Market
The energy market is a network of energy providers and users.
It is controlled by complicated rules and it has settled into an equilibrium, which involves.
- Importation of energy, which I suspect is not at a low price
- Some high priced energy generators, based on gas, which has a high-price, due to Putin’s war.
- Waste of wind energy due to lack of energy storage.
- The intermittency of renewable sources.
- A lack of gas storage, means that we probably get the wrong end of fluctuations in the gas price.
This results in a high price to consumers.
Can We Move The Equilibrium Point Of The Energy Market?
And we also need to move it quickly to a more favourable place, which benefits everybody!
As a Control Engineer, I believe that there are five ways to move the equilibrium point.
- Stop Putin’s war.
- Increase gas storage.
- Generate more low-cost electricity.
- Increase electricity storage.
- Improve the control algorithm.
I will now look at each in more detail.
Stopping Putin’s War
Giving in to Putin’s ambitions, would be an easy way to solve our energy crisis. But at what cost?
My parents generation, watched as Nazi Germany took over Austria and Czechoslovakia, whilst the world did nothing.
- We mustn’t repeat that mistake.
- We must not flinch in our support of the Ukraine.
- We must be ready to support Moldova, Finland and the Baltic States if Putin expands his ambitions.
I do wonder, if Boris will turn up with Churchillian-style anti-Putin rhetoric all over Eastern Europe.
Increasing Gas Storage
The major gas storage facility is Rough, which is handily close to the Easington gas terminal.
The facility needs maintenance and this paragraph from the Wikipedia entry gives the current status.
In May 2022, the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Kwasi Kwarteng, began talks with the site’s owners with a view to reopening the site to help ease the ongoing cost-of-living crisis in the United Kingdom. In June 2022, owners Centrica submitted an application to the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), the licencing authority for the UK Government, to reopen the facility. Approval was granted in July. Subsequently, Centrica indicated that they are working hard to restore storage operations at Rough which would depend on securing subsidies from the British government. Centrica was aiming to have some capacity available for the winter of 2022/23 against an overall plan to increase storage capacity gradually over time.
Note.
- Rough can store around 2832 million cubic metres of gas.
- This article on Energy Live News is entitled Reopening Of Rough Storage Gets The All-Clear.
Less well-known is SSE and Equinor’s Aldborough Gas Storage.
These three paragraphs from SSE web site, describe the gas storage.
The Aldbrough Gas Storage facility, in East Yorkshire, officially opened in June 2011. The last of the nine caverns entered commercial operation in November 2012.
The facility, which is a joint venture between SSE Thermal (66%) and Equinor, has the capacity to store around 330 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas.
SSE Thermal and Equinor have consent to increase the storage capacity at the Aldbrough site (Aldbrough Phase 2) and during the last couple of years have been working to involve the local community where appropriate to refine aspects of this project, which has not been progressed to date due to market conditions.
Future plans for the facility, may include converting it to one of the world’s largest hydrogen stores.
In the grand scheme of things, Rough and Aldborough, when you consider that the UK uses 211 million cubic metres of gas every day, will only keep us going for a few days.
But it should be noted, that the Easington gas terminal is connected to the Norwegian gas fields, by the Langeled pipeline.
So Yorkshire and Humberside will be alright.
Generating More Low-Cost Electricity
The only low-cost electricity of any size to come on stream will be wind-power.
This article on Renewables Now is entitled UK Hits 25.5 GW Of Wind Power Capacity.
These wind farms seem to be coming on stream soon or have been commissioned recently.
- Dogger Bank A – 1200 MW – Commissioning 2023 expected
- Dogger Bank B – 1200 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
- Dogger Bank C – 1200 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
- Hornsea Two – 1386 MW – Commissioned 2022
- Moray East – 950 MW – Commissioning 2022 expected
- Neart Na Gaoithe – 450 MW – Commissioning 2024 expected
- Seagreen – 1075 MW – Commissioning 2023 expected
- Triton Knoll – 857 MW – Commissioning 2022 expected
That is expected to be over 5 GW of offshore wind by the end of 2023.
In case there is some double counting, I’ll only say that wind power capacity could be near to 30 GW by December 2023, with perhaps another 3 GW by December 2024.
Other large wind farms in the future include.
- Berwick Bank – 4100 MW – Commissioning 2028 expected
- East Anglia Two – 900 MW – Commissioning 2026 expected
- East Anglia Three – 1400 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Inch Cape Phase 1 – 1080 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Hornsea Three – 2800 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Moray West – 294 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Morgan and Mona – 3000 MW – Commissioning for 2028 expected
- Morven – 2900 MW – Commissioning for 2028 expected
- Norfolk Boreas – 1400 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Norfolk Vanguard – 1400 MW – Construction start planned for 2023
- Sofia – 1400 MW – Commissioning 2026 expected
That is over 14 GW of wind power.
I should also take note of solar and onshore wind power detailed in this document from the Department of Business, Industry and Industrial Strategy that lists all the Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4 results for the supply of zero-carbon electricity.
It gives these figures and dates.
- Solar – 251 MW – Commissioning 2023/24 expected
- Solar – 1958 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
- Onshore Wind – 888 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
I can now build a yearly table of renewables likely to be commissioned in each year.
- 2022 – 3193 MW
- 2023 – 2275 MW
- 2024 – 701 MW
- 2025 – 5246 MW
- 2026 – 2300 MW
- 2027 – 6974 MW
- 2028 – 11400 MW
Note.
- Where a double date has been given, I’m taking the latter date.
- I have assumed that Norfolk Vanguard will be commissioned in 2028.
- I have ignored Hinckley Point C, which should add 3.26 GW in mid-2027.
- I have only taken into account one of the Scotwind wind farms in Scotland, some of which could be commissioned by 2028.
- I have assumed that BP’s Mona, Morgan and Morven will all be commissioned by 2028.
This is a total of 32 GW or an average of nearly 5 GW per year.
Increasing Electricity Storage
Big schemes like the 1.5 GW/ 30 GWh Coire Glas and 600 MW Cruachan 2 will help, but with 32 GW of renewable energy to be installed before 2028 and energy prices rocketing, we need substantial energy storage in the next couple of years.
One feasible plan that has been put forward is that of Highview Power’s CEO; Rupert Pearce,, that I wrote about in Highview Power’s Plan To Add Energy Storage To The UK Power Network.
The plan is to build twenty of Highview Power’s CRYOBatteries around the country.
- Each CRYOBattery will be able to store 30 GWh.
- Each CRYOBattery will be one of the largest batteries in the world.
- They will have three times the storage of the pumped storage hydroelectric power station at Dinorwig.
- They will be able to supply 2.5 GW for twelve hours, which is more output than Sizewell B nuclear power station.
Note.
- The first 30 GWh CRYOBattery is planned to be operational by late 2024.
- 600 GWh distributed around the country would probably be sufficient.
I believe that as these batteries are made from standard proven components, they could be built fairly quickly.
Paying For The Energy Storage
This press release from Highview Power is entitled New Analysis Reveals Extent Of UK Renewable Energy Waste, which makes these three bullet points.
- Enough renewable energy to power 500,000 homes a day wasted since the energy crisis began.
- 8 out of 10 Britons want more investment in boosting Britain’s energy resilience.
- UK spent £390 million turning off wind farms and using gas since September 2021.
Note.
- As the press release was published in July 2022, was the £390 million for ten months.
- Will this level of spend continue, as we’re not creating any electricity storage or building any factories that will start in a year or so, that will need large amounts of electricity?
- The Germans are at least building the NeuConnect interconnector between the Isle of Grain and Wilhelmshaven.
- As we’re adding up to 5 GW per year to our renewable energy systems, this problem will surely get worse and we’ll spend more money switching off wind turbines.
We have the money to build a very large amount of energy storage.
Improving The Control Algorithm
A better control algorithm would always help and politicians should only be allowed to set objectives.
Conclusion
There is a chance we’ll have an oversupply of electricity, but this will have effects in the UK.
- Gas-fired power-stations will be retired from front-line service to produce electricity.
- Some will question the need for nuclear power.
- Gas may even be used selectively to provide carbon dioxide for agricultural, scientific and industrial processes.
- Industries that need a lot of electricity may build factories in the UK.
- We will have a large supply of green hydrogen.
But it should bring the price of electricity down.
Renewable Power’s Effect On The Tory Leadership Election
I wouldn’t normally comment on the Tory Leadership Election, as I don’t have a vote and my preference has already been eliminated.
But after reading this article on the Telegraph, which is entitled Britain Will Soon Have A Glut Of Cheap Power, And World-Leading Batteries To Store It, I feel I have to comment both about this election and the General Election, that will follow in a few years.
These two paragraphs from the article illustrate the future growth of offshore wind power.
It is a point about the mathematical implications of the UK’s gargantuan push for renewables. Offshore wind capacity is going to increase from 11 to 50 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 under the Government’s latest fast-track plans.
RenewableUK says this country currently has a total of 86GW in the project pipeline. This the most ambitious rollout of offshore wind in the world, ahead of China at 78GW, and the US at 48GW.
If we assume that there is eight years left of this decade, that means that we should install about 4.9 GW of offshore wind every year until 2030. If we add in planned solar and onshore wind developments, we must be looking at at least 5 GW of renewable energy being added every year.
We have also got the 3.26 GW Hinckley Point C coming on stream.
I think we can say, that when it comes to electricity generation, we will not be worried, so Liz and Rishi can leave that one to the engineers.
If we have an electricity problem, it is about distribution and storage.
- We need more interconnectors between where the wind farms are being built and where the electricity will be used.
- National Grid and the Government have published plans for two interconnectors between Scotland and England, which I wrote about in New Electricity ‘Superhighways’ Needed To Cope With Surge In Wind Power.
- We need energy storage to back up the wind and solar power, when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining.
I think it is reasonable to assume, that we will get the interconnectors we need and the Telegraph article puts forward a very feasible and affordable solution to the energy storage problem, which is described in these two paragraphs from the article.
That is now in sight, and one of the world leaders is a British start-up. Highview Power has refined a beautifully simple technology using liquid air stored in insulated steel towers at low pressure.
This cryogenic process cools air to minus 196 degrees using the standard kit for LNG. It compresses the volume 700-fold. The liquid re-expands with a blast of force when heated and drives a turbine, providing dispatchable power with the help of a flywheel.
The article also talks of twenty energy storage systems, spread around the UK.
- They will have a total output of 6 GW.
- In total they will be able to store 600 GWh of electricity.
The first one for Humberside is currently being planned.
Surely, building these wind and solar farms, interconnectors and energy storage systems will cost billions of pounds.
Consider.
- Wind and solar farms get paid for the electricity they generate.
- , Interconnectors get paid for the electricity they transfer.
- Energy storage systems make a profit by buying energy when it’s cheap and selling it, when the price is better.
- In World’s Largest Wind Farm Attracts Huge Backing From Insurance Giant, I talked about how Aviva were funding the world’s largest wind farm at Hornsea.
- National Grid has a history of funding interconnectors like the North Sea Link from large financial institutions.
I believe that the islands of Great Britain and Ireland and the waters around our combined shores will become the largest zero-carbon power station in the world.
This will attract engineering companies and financial institutions from all over the world and we will see a repeat of the rush for energy that we saw for oil and gas in the last century.
If we get the financial regime right, I can see a lot of tax money flowing towards the Exchequer.
The big question will be what do we do with all this energy.
- Some will be converted into hydrogen for transport, the making of zero-carbon steel and cement and for use as a chemical feedstock.
- Industries that use a lot of electricity may move to the UK.
- A large supply of electricity and hydrogen will make it easy to decarbonise housing, offices and factories.
The Telegraph article also says this.
Much can be exported to the Continent through interconnectors for a fat revenue stream, helping to plug the UK’s trade deficit, and helping to rescue Germany from the double folly of nuclear closures and the Putin pact. But there are limits since weather patterns in Britain and Northwest Europe overlap – partially.
I suspect that more energy will be exported to Germany than most economists think, as it will be needed and it will be a nice little earner for the UK.
Given the substantial amount of German investment in our wind industry, I do wonder, if Boris and Olaf did a deal to encourage more German investment, when they met in April this year.
- BP have been backed with their wind farms by a German utility company.
- RWE are developing the Sofia wind farm.
- Only last week, the deal for the NeuConnect interconnector between the Isle of Grain and Wilhelmshaven was signed.
- Siemens have a lot of investments in the UK.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see more German investments in the next few months.
The Golden Hello
Has there ever been a Prime Minister, who will receive such a golden hello, as the one Liz or Rishi will receive in September?
The Tory Leadership Election
Some of the candidates said they would reduce taxes , if they won and Liz Truss is still saying that.
I wonder why Rishi isn’t saying that he would reduce taxes, as he must know the cash flow that is coming. It may be he’s just a more cautious soul.
Will Our Gas Supplies Hold Up This Winter?
I am prompted to ask this question because of this article in The Times, which is entitled ‘Really High Gas Prices’ Loom For UK As Europe Faces Winter Rationing.
These are a few thoughts.
UK Gas-Fired Power Station Capacity
This entry in Wikipedia is entitled List Of Natural Gas Power Stations In The United Kingdom.
This statement summarises the capacity.
There are currently 32 active gas fired combined cycle power plants operating in the United Kingdom, which have a total generating capacity of 28.0 GW.
This section is entitled Decline Of Gas For Power In The United Kingdom, where this is said.
In 2016 gas fired power stations generated a total of 127 TWh of electricity. Generation has dropped to 119 TWh in 2017, 115 TWh in 2018, 114 TWh in 2019 and 95 TWh in 2020. The decline is largely due to the increase in renewable sources outweighing the decline of coal, and an overall reduction in demand.
Putting these pictures as a table and applying a simple numerical analysis technique gives the following.
- 2016 – 127 TWh
- 2017 – 119 TWh – Drop of 8TWh
- 2018 – 115 TWh – Drop of 4 TWh
- 2019 – 114 TWh – Drop of 1 TWh
- 2020 – 95 TWh – Drop of 19 TWh
In four years the amount of electricity generated each year by gas-fired power stations has dropped by an amazing 8 TWh on average per year.
Factors like the increase in renewables and an overall reduction in demand will still apply.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a continuous reduction of electricity generated by gas of 8 TWh per year.
Figures like these could be possible.
- 2021 – 87 TWh
- 2022 – 79 TWh
- 2023 – 71 TWh
- 2024 – 63 TWh
- 2025 – 55 TWh
- 2026 – 47 TWh
- 2027 – 39 TWh
I have stopped these figures at 2027, as one major event should happen in that year, as Hinckley Point C is planned to switch on in June 2027, which will contribute 3.26 GW. or 28.5 TWh per year.
In Will We Run Out Of Power This Winter?, I also summarised the energy that will be produced by the various projects, that were signed off recently in the Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4′, where I said this.
Summarising the figures for new capacity gives.
- 2022 – 3200 MW
- 2023 – 1500 MW
- 3024 – 2400 MW
- 2025 – 6576 MW
- 2026 – 1705 MW
- 2027 – 7061 GW
This totals to 22442 MW.
Note that a 1 GW power source would generate 8.76 TWh of electricity per year.
One problem we may have is too much electricity and as we are not blessed with much storage in the UK, where will be able to put it?
In a strange way, Vlad the Mad may solve the problem, by cutting off Europe’s gas.
Jackdaw Gas Field
This document on the Shell web site is the standard information sheet for the Jackdaw field development.
This is the short description of the development.
The Jackdaw field is an uHPHT reservoir that will be developed with a not permanently
attended WHP. Four wells will be drilled at the Jackdaw WHP. Produced fluids will be
exported via a subsea pipeline to the Shearwater platform where these will be processed
before onward export via the Fulmar Gas Line and the Forties Pipeline System.
The proposed development may be summarised as follows:
- Installation of a new WHP
- Drilling of four production wells
- Installation of a new approximately 31 km pipeline from the Jackdaw WHP to the Shearwater platform
- Processing and export of the Jackdaw hydrocarbons via the Shearwater host platform
First production expected between Q3 – Q4 2025.
Note.
- Production could start in just over three years.
- This gas will come ashore at the Bacton gas terminal in Norfolk.
- Bacton has two gas interconnectors to Europe; one to Belgium and one to The Netherlands, so is ideally connected to export gas to Europe.
Given the high gas prices, I am sure any company would pull out all the stops to shorten the project development time.
HyDeploy
I described HyDeploy, which is a project to blend up to 20 % of hydrogen into the distributed natural gas in HyDeploy.
In The Mathematics Of Blending Twenty Percent Of Hydrogen Into The UK Gas Grid, I worked how much electricity would be needed for HyDeploy’s target blending of hydrogen.
It was 8.2 GW, but!
- It would save a lot of carbon emissions.
- Boilers and other appliances wouldn’t have to be changed, although they would probably need a service.
- It would significantly cut the amount of natural gas we need.
- It might even be a product to export in its own right.
I certainly feel that HyDeploy is a significant project.
Gas Imports And Existing Fields
This entry in Wikipedia is entitled Energy in the United Kingdom.
In this section, which is entitled Natural Gas, this is said.
United Kingdom produced 60% of its consumed natural gas in 2010. In five years the United Kingdom moved from almost gas self-sufficient (see North Sea gas) to 40% gas import in 2010. Gas was almost 40% of total primary energy supply (TPES) and electricity more than 45% in 2010. Underground storage was about 5% of annual demand and more than 10% of net imports.
Gasfields include Amethyst gasfield, Armada gasfield, Easington Catchment Area, East Knapton, Everest gasfield and Rhum gasfield.
Consider.
- We know that the amount of gas used for generating electricity is reducing , due to the increase in renewables and an overall reduction in demand.
- The cost of both gas imports and exports are rising.
- In two years time the Jackdaw gas field should be producing gas.
Would it be sensible to squeeze as much gas out of the existing fields, as by the time they run out, renewables, an overall reduction in demand, the Jackdaw gasfield and other factors will mean that we will have enough gas and electricity for our needs.
Could Norfolk And Suffolk Be Powered By Offshore Wind?
This week this article on the BBC was published, which had a title of Government Pledges £100m For Sizewell Nuclear Site.
These are the first three paragraphs.
The government is putting up £100m to support the planned Sizewell C nuclear plant in Suffolk, Business and Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has announced.
The investment marks the latest stage in efforts to build the £20bn reactor on the east coast of England.
However, it does not commit the government to approving the project, which is still subject to negotiations.
My view of the proposed Sizewell C nuclear plant is that of an engineer, who used to live within thirty minutes of the Sizewell site.
- Hinckley Point C power station, which is currently being constructed, will have a nameplate capacity of 3.26 GW.
- Sizewell C would probably be to a similar design and capacity to Hinckley Point C.
- Sizewell C would likely be completed between 2033-2036.
- Sizewell B is a 1250 MW station, which has a current closing date of 2035, that could be extended to 2055.
- East Anglia and particularly the mega Freeport East, that will develop to the South at the Ports of Felixstowe and Harwich will need more electricity.
- One of the needs of Freeport East will be a large supply of electricity to create hydrogen for the trains, trucks, ships and cargo handling equipment.
- Sizewell is a large site, with an excellent connection to the National Grid, that marches as a giant pair of overhead cables across the Suffolk countryside to Ipswich.
But.
- We still haven’t developed a comprehensive strategy for the management of nuclear waste in the UK. Like paying for the care of the elderly and road pricing, it is one of those problems, that successive governments have kept kicking down the road, as it is a big vote loser.
- I was involved writing project management software for forty years and the building of large nuclear power plants is littered with time and cost overruns.
- There wasn’t a labour problem with the building of Sizewell B, as engineers and workers were readily available. But with the development of Freeport East, I would be very surprised if Suffolk could provide enough labour for two mega-projects after Brexit.
- Nuclear power plants use a lot of steel and concrete. The production of these currently create a lot of carbon dioxide.
- There is also a large number of those objecting to the building of Sizewell C. It saddened me twenty-five years ago, that most of the most strident objectors, that I met, were second home owners, with no other connection to Suffolk.
The older I get, the more my experience says, that large nuclear power plants aren’t always a good idea.
Small Modular Nuclear Reactors
In Is Sizewell The Ideal Site For A Fleet Of Small Modular Nuclear Reactors?, I looked at building a fleet of small modular nuclear reactors at Sizewell, instead of Sizewell C.
I believe eight units would be needed in the fleet to produce the proposed 3.26 GW and advantages would include.
- Less land use.
- Less cost.
- Less need for scarce labour.
- Easier to finance.
- Manufacturing modules in a factory should improve quality.
- Electricity from the time of completion of unit 1.
But it would still be nuclear.
Wind In The Pipeline
Currently, these offshore wind farms around the East Anglian Coast are under construction, proposed or are in an exploratory phase.
- East Anglia One – 714 MW – 2021 – Finishing Construction
- East Anglia One North 800 MW – 2026 – Exploratory
- East Anglia Two – 900 MW – 2026 – Exploratory
- East Anglia Three – 1400 MW – 2026 – Exploratory
- Norfolk Vanguard – 1800 MW – Exploratory
- Norfolk Boreas – 1800 MW – Exploratory
- Sheringham Shoal/Dudgeon Extension – 719 MW – Exploratory
Note.
- The date is the possible final commissioning date.
- I have no commissioning dates for the last three wind farms.
- The East Anglia wind farms are all part of the East Anglia Array.
These total up to 8.13 GW, which is in excess of the combined capacity of Sizewell B and the proposed Sizewell C, which is only 4.51 GW.
As it is likely, that by 2033, which is the earliest date, that Sizewell C will be completed, that the East Anglia Array will be substantially completed, I suspect that East Anglia will not run out of electricity.
But I do feel that to be sure, EdF should try hard to get the twenty year extension to Sizewell B.
The East Anglia Hub
ScottishPower Renewables are developing the East Anglia Array and this page on their web site, describes the East Anglia Hub.
This is the opening paragraph.
ScottishPower Renewables is proposing to construct its future offshore windfarms, East Anglia THREE, East Anglia TWO and East Anglia ONE North, as a new ‘East Anglia Hub’.
Note.
- These three wind farms will have a total capacity of 3.1 GW.
- East Anglia ONE is already in operation.
- Power is brought ashore at Bawdsey between Felixstowe and Sizewell.
I would assume that East Anglia Hub and East Anglia ONE will use the same connection.
Norfolk Boreas and Norfolk Vanguard
These two wind farms will be to the East of Great Yarmouth.
This map from Vattenfall web site, shows the position of the two wind farms.
Note.
- Norfolk Boreas is outlined in blue.
- Norfolk Vanguard is outlined in orange.
- I assume the grey areas are where the cables will be laid.
- I estimate that the two farms are about fifty miles offshore.
This second map shows the landfall between Eccles-on-Sea and Happisburgh.
Note the underground cable goes half-way across Norfolk to Necton.
Electricity And Norfolk And Suffolk
This Google Map shows Norfolk and Suffolk.
Note.
- The red arrow in the North-West corner marks the Bicker Fen substation that connects to the Viking Link to Denmark.
- The East Anglia Array connects to the grid at Bawdsey in the South-East corner of the map.
- Sizewell is South of Aldeburgh in the South-East corner of the map.
- The only ports are Lowestoft and Yarmouth in the East and Kings Lynn in the North-West.
There are few large towns or cities and little heavy industry.
- Electricity usage could be lower than the UK average.
- There are three small onshore wind farms in Norfolk and none in Suffolk.
- There is virtually no high ground suitable for pumped storage.
- There are lots of areas, where there are very few buildings to the square mile.
As I write this at around midday on a Saturday at the end of January, 49 % of electricity in Eastern England comes from wind, 20 % from nuclear and 8 % from solar. That last figure surprised me.
I believe that the wind developments I listed earlier could provide Norfolk and Suffolk with all the electricity they need.
The Use Of Batteries
Earlier, I talked of a maximum of over 7 GW of offshore wind around the cost of Norfolk and Suffolk, but there is still clear water in the sea to be filled between the existing and planned wind farms.
Batteries will become inevitable to smooth the gaps between the electricity produced and the electricity used.
Here are a few numbers.
- East Anglian Offshore Wind Capacity – 8 GW
- Off-Peak Hours – Midnight to 0700.
- Typical Capacity Factor Of A Windfarm – 20 % but improving.
- Overnight Electricity Produced at 20 % Capacity Factor – 11.2 GWh
- Sizewell B Output – 1.25 GW
- Proposed Sizewell C Output – 3.26 GW
- Largest Electrolyser – 24 MW
- World’s Largest Lithium-Ion Battery at Moss Landing – 3 GWh
- Storage at Electric Mountain – 9.1 GWh
- Storage at Cruachan Power Station – 7.1 GWh
Just putting these large numbers in a table tells me that some serious mathematical modelling will need to be performed to size the batteries that will probably be needed in East Anglia.
In the 1970s, I was involved in three calculations of a similar nature.
- In one, I sized the vessels for a proposed polypropylene plant for ICI.
- In another for ICI, I sized an effluent treatment system for a chemical plant, using an analogue computer.
- I also helped program an analysis of water resources in the South of England. So if you have a water shortage in your area caused by a wrong-sized reservoir, it could be my fault.
My rough estimate is that the East Anglian battery would need to be at least a few GWh and capable of supplying up to the output of Sizewell B.
It also doesn’t have to be a single battery. One solution would probably be to calculate what size battery is needed in the various towns and cities of East Anglia, to give everyone a stable and reliable power supply.
I could see a large battery built at Sizewell and smaller batteries all over Norfolk and Suffolk.
But why stop there? We probably need appropriately-sized batteries all over the UK, with very sophisticated control systems using artificial intelligent working out, where the electricity is best stored.
Note that in this post, by batteries, I’m using that in the loosest possible way. So the smaller ones could be lithium-ion and largest ones could be based on some of the more promising technologies that are under development.
- Highview Power have an order for a 50 MW/500 MWh battery for Chile, that I wrote about in The Power Of Solar With A Large Battery.
- East Anglia is an area, where digging deep holes is easy and some of Gravitricity’s ideas might suit.
- I also think that eventually someone will come up with a method of storing energy using sea cliffs.
All these developments don’t require large amounts of land.
East Anglia Needs More Heavy Consumers Of Electricity
I am certainly coming to this conclusion.
Probably, the biggest use of electricity in East Anglia is the Port of Felixstowe, which will be expanding as it becomes Freeport East in partnership with the Port of Harwich.
One other obvious use could be in large data centres.
But East Anglia has never been known for industries that use a lot of electricity, like aluminium smelting.
Conversion To Hydrogen
Although the largest current electrolyser is only 24 MW, the UK’s major electrolyser builder; ITM Power, is talking of a manufacturing capacity of 5 GW per year, so don’t rule out conversion of excess electricity into hydrogen.
Conclusion
Who needs Sizewell C?
Perhaps as a replacement for Sizewell B, but it would appear there is no pressing urgency.
Plans Announced For ‘Low Carbon’ Power Stations In Lincolnshire
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the introductory paragraph.
Hundreds of jobs could be created after plans were announced to build two “low carbon” power stations in North Lincolnshire.
Last year, I only had one night away from home and that was in Doncaster, from where I explored North East Lincolnshire and wrote Energy In North-East Lincolnshire, where I made a few predictions.
These are my thoughts on my predictions and other points made in the BBC article.
Keadby 1
Keadby 1 is a 734 MW gas-fired power station, that was commissioned in 1996.
Keadby 2
- Keadby 2 will be a 840 MW gas-fired power station.
- It will be possible to add Carbon Capture and Storage technology to Keadby 2 to make the plant net-zero carbon.
- Keadby 2 will be able to run on hydrogen.
Keadby 2 is under construction.
Keadby 3 And Keadby 4
I predicted that two new power stations would be added to the Keadby cluster.
- When I wrote the other post, SSE were still designing Keadby 3, but had said it would be a 910 MW station.
- This would mean that Keadby 1, Keadby 2 and Keadby 3 would have a combined capacity of 2484 MW of electricity.
- Adding a fourth station, which I called Keadby 4, which I proposed to be the same size as Keadby 3 would give a combined capacity of 3394 MW.
This will be more than the planned capacity of the under-construction Hinckley Point C nuclear power station will be able to generate 3200 MW.
The BBC article says this about the plans for Keadby.
One plant would burn natural gas and use carbon capture technology to remove the CO2 from its emissions. The CO2 would then be transported along pipelines before being securely stored in rocks under the North Sea.
The hydrogen power station would produce “zero emissions at the point of combustion”, its developers claimed.
It looks like Keadby will have the power of a Hinckley Point nuclear station, but running on gas.
Carbon Capture And Storage
From what I read on the sseThermal web site and published in Energy In North-East Lincolnshire, it looks like Keadby 2 and Keadby 3 will use carbon capture and storage and Keadby 4 will use hydrogen.
There are plenty of depleted gas fields connected to the Easington terminal that can be used for carbon-dioxide storage.
The Zero Carbon Humber Network
The Zero Carbon Humber is going to be a gas network along the Humber, that will distribute hydrogen to large industrial users and return carbon dioxide for storage under the North Sea.
This map shows the Zero Carbon Humber pipeline layout.
Note.
- The orange line is a proposed carbon dioxide pipeline
- The black line alongside it, is a proposed hydrogen pipeline.
- Drax, Keadby and Saltend are power stations.
- Easington gas terminal is connected to around twenty gas fields in the North Sea.
- The terminal imports natural gas from Norway using the Langeled pipeline.
- The Rough field has been converted to gas storage and can hold four days supply of natural gas for the UK.
I can see this network being extended, with some of the depleted gas fields being converted into storage for natural gas, hydrogen or carbon dioxide.
Enter The Vikings
This article on The Times is entitled SSE and Equinor’s ‘Blue Hydrogen’ Power Plant Set To Be World First.
This is the introductory paragraph.
The world’s first large-scale power station to burn pure hydrogen could be built in Britain this decade by SSE and Equinor to generate enough low-carbon energy to supply more than a million homes.
This second paragraph explains the working of the production of the blue hydrogen.
The proposed power station near Scunthorpe would burn “blue hydrogen”, produced by processing natural gas and capturing and disposing of waste CO2 in a process that has low but not zero emissions. Equinor is already working on plans for a blue hydrogen production facility at Saltend in the Humber.
This may seem to some to be a wasteful process in that you use energy to produce blue hydrogen from natural gas and then use the hydrogen to generate power, but I suspect there are good reasons for the indirect route.
I believe that green hydrogen will become available from the North Sea from combined wind-turbine electrolysers being developed by Orsted and ITM Power, before the end of the decade.
Green hydrogen because it is produced by electrolysis will have less impurities than blue hydrogen.
Both will be zero-carbon fuels.
According to this document on the TNO web site, green hydrogen will be used for fuel cell applications and blue hydrogen for industrial processes.
Blue hydrogen would be able to power Keadby 2, 3 and 4.
I can see a scenario where Equinor’s blue hydrogen will reduce the price of hydrogen steelmaking and other industrial processes. It will also allow the purer and more costly green hydrogen to be reserved for transport and other fuel cell applications.
Using The Carbon Instead Of Storing
The document on the TNO web site has this surprising paragraph.
Hydrogen produced from natural gas using the so-called molten metal pyrolysis technology is called ‘turquoise hydrogen’ or ‘low carbon hydrogen’. Natural gas is passed through a molten metal that releases hydrogen gas as well as solid carbon. The latter can find a useful application in, for example, car tyres. This technology is still in the laboratory phase and it will take at least ten years for the first pilot plant to be realised.
This technical paper is entitled Methane Pyrolysis In A Molten Gallium Bubble Column Reactor For Sustainable Hydrogen Production: Proof Of Concept & Techno-Economic Assessment.
This may be a few years away, but just imagine using the carbon dioxide from power stations and industrial processes to create a synthetic rubber.
But I believe there is a better use for the carbon dioxide in the interim to cut down the amount that goes into long-term storage, which in some ways is the energy equivalent of landfill except that it isn’t in the least way toxic, as carbon-dioxide is one of the most benign substances on the planet.
Lincolnshire used to be famous for flowers. On a BBC Countryfile program a couple of weeks ago, there was a feature on the automated growing and harvesting of tulips in greenhouses.
There are references on the Internet to of carbon dioxide being fed to flowers in greenhouses to make them better flowers.
So will be see extensive building of greenhouses on the flat lands of Lincolnshire growing not just flowers, but soft fruits and salad vegetables.
Conclusion
The plans of SSE and Equinor as laid out in The Times and the BBC could create a massive power station cluster.
- It would be powered by natural gas and hydrogen.
- Blue hydrogen will be produced by an efficient chemical process.
- Green hydrogen will be produced offshore in massive farms of wind-turbine/electrolysers.
- It would generate as much electricity as a big nuclear power station.
- All carbon-dioxide produced would be either stored or used to create useful industrial products and food or flowers in greenhouses.
Do power stations like this hasten the end of big nuclear power stations?
Probably, until someone finds a way to turn nuclear waste into something useful.
The Anonymous Widower 