Coeliac Journey Through Covid-19 – Oxford And Cambridge Compared
Oxford And Cambridge Compared
In May 2020, I had been looking at the statistics of the two cities and the country around them and found that the numbers of Covid-19 cases were twice as high in Oxford, when related to population.
In Oxford And Cambridge Compared On COVID-19, I give my reasons for why Cambridge has lower levels of Covid-19.
Consider.
- Both cities and surrounding counties have a similar character.
- Both have well-respected hospitals, medical schools and medical research.
- Air pollution appears to be low in both areas.
- Both cities probably have a similar ethnic mix and large student populations.
As I used to live near Cambridge, I have my own mad personal theory.
Addenbrooke’s Hospital
I have used several hospitals in my life, but only two changed my life totally.
- I had my vasectomy in the old Hackney Hospital.
- Addenbrooke’s, who with a simple blood test decided I was probably coeliac.
So perhaps, I’m biased.
But consider these possible facts.
- My coeliac consultant at Addenbrooke’s told me, that he had more patients with the disease than any other in the UK.
- The manager at Carluccio’s in Cambridge, told me that they sold more gluten-free food, than any other restaurant in the group.
- In 1997, I was diagnosed fast, because Addenbrooke’s were using a new genetic test. I was later checked using an endoscopy.
Could it be that someone at Addenbrooke’s had decided they wanted to find all the coeliacs in and around Cambridge?
What would be the effects of diagnosing as many coeliacs as you could find in an area?
- A doctor of my acquaintance talked of coeliac disease as the many-headed hydra, as it led to so many other medical problems. So extra diagnosed coeliacs might improve health statistics in an area.
- Personally, I have said good-bye to migraines, nail-biting and lots of joint pains, after going gluten-free.
- I also haven’t had a serious dose of flu since diagnosis. Since 2005, I’ve probably had the flu jab.
- Joe West at Nottingham University, has shown that coeliacs on a gluten-free diet have lower cancer rates than the general population.
Consider.
- Immunotherapy is a medical technique, where the patient’s immune system is activated or suppressed to help them fight a disease.
- Coeliac disease is an autoimmune disease, where gluten causes damage to the gut.
So could coeliacs on a gluten-free diet have a more powerful immune system?
Undiagnosed Coeliacs
Coeliac disease is genetic, with mine coming from an Ashkenazi Jewish ancestor from Konigsberg in the Baltic.
- Other roots of coeliac disease are Irish, Italian and black people, who have slaves as ancestors.
- There was no test for coeliac disease in children until 1960.
- There was no genetic test for coeliac disease until the late 1990s.
- Research has shown that coeliacs are at least 1-in-100 of the UK population, but could be higher.
- The NHS quotes the 1-in-100 figure on this web page, which also says reported cases of coeliac disease are higher in women than men.
If coeliacs on a gluten-free diet have a good immune system, do undiagnosed coeliacs have a poorer one?
Oxford And Cambridge Compared
Is the large number of diagnosed coeliacs around Cambridge, the reason the area has a lower COVID-19 rate than Oxford?
Conclusion
What do I know?
I’m just a mad engineer and mathematician with coeliac disease.
Coeliac Journey Through Covid-19 – Thoughts On Leicestershire
Thoughts On Leicestershire
In High Risk Of Coeliac Disease In Punjabis. Epidemiological Study In The South Asian And European Populations Of Leicestershire, I wrote a section entitled Cases Of Covid-19 In Leicestershire, where I said this.
This article on the Leicester Mercury is entitled 11 Areas Of Leicestershire Have Among Worst Infection Rates in the UK.
In Coeliac Disease: Can We Avert The Impending Epidemic In India?, I started like this.
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the Indian Journal Of Research Medicine.
With the high levels of COVID-19 in Leicester and an Indian population who make up 28.3 % of the population of the city, I was searching the internet to see if there was any connection between those of Indian heritage and coeliac disease.
I know you should not try to prove a theory. But as a coeliac, I’m very interested to see how the millions of diagnosed coeliacs on a gluten-free diet like me, are faring in this pandemic.
I then talk about some extracts from the Indian research.
In a section entitled, which is entitled All Wheats Are Not Equal, I say this.
The other dimension to this problem is that not all wheat is alike when it comes to inducing celiac disease. The ancient or diploid wheats (e.g. Triticum monococcum) are poorly antigenic, while the modern hexaploid wheats e.g. Triticum aestivum) have highly antigenic glutens, more capable of inducing celiac disease in India, for centuries, grew diploid and later tetraploid wheat which is less antigenic, while hexaploid wheat used in making bread is recently introduced. Thus a change back to older varieties of wheat may have public health consequences.
So did all these factors come together to create the high levels of Covid-19 in Leicestershire?
Conclusion
I am getting bored with saying this. More research needs to be done!
Coeliac Journey Through Covid-19 – Keeping Calm And Carrying On
Keeping Calm And Carrying On
I decided that this was the best action to take.
- Coeliac-UK were still not giving any specific advice.
- Lockdowns didn’t bother me!
- During the pandemic, I didn’t have one food item or takeaway meal delivered.
- In March 2020, I wrote Carry On Blogging, which details how I was carrying on.
Throughout 2020 my blog posts on Covid-19 were only a trickle for much of the year.
These are some other thoughts.
Lockdowns
Lockdowns didn’t bother me, although as a Graduate Control Engineer, I’m against them in principle.
If you’re trying to control a complex system, you don’t use bang-bang control, where you switch something on and off.
Try riding a bike, by only steering hard-left and hard-right.
Interviewing Coeliacs
Coeliac disease must be the one condition, where you regularly meet others with the same condition as you shop.
So every time, I go shopping for gluten-free products and I meet someone in the Free From aisle, I try to get a conversation going.
I must have met nearly a hundred coeliacs in the last four years and I have yet to find one that has suffered a serious dose of Covid-19.
Conclusion
Admittedly, my research has been rather haphazard and random, but my findings generally follows the pattern of the Padua research I wrote about in Risk of COVID-19 In Celiac Disease Patients.
This is the paper on the US National Library of Medicine, which is from the University of Padua in Italy.
This is an extract from the paper.
Among the 171 patients included in our registry and on gluten free diet from at least six months, we contacted 138 CeD subjects (80.7%), aged 41.3 years old (SD 14.9), 73.9% were females on a gluten-free diet from a mean of 6.6 years (SD 6.0). Two patients had a diagnosis of refractory celiac disease type one and one of refractory celiac disease type 2. Among them, none reported to have been diagnosed with COVID-19, whereas 19 CeD patients experienced flu-like symptoms with 1 of them having undergone a negative naso-pharyngeal swab.
Their study certainly gave me confidence to carry on until the vaccines arrived.
Coeliac Journey Through Covid-19 – The Elderly And Covid-19
The Elderly And Covid-19
Note that this page is an updated version of A Thought On Deaths Of The Elderly From Covid-19, which I wrote in April 2020.
The main update concern dates and ages.
It has been shown, that a lot of the deaths from Covid-19 are over seventy.
I am seventy-five and a coeliac, which was diagnosed when I was fifty in 1997.
As my GP practice nurse said at the time of my diagnosis, as we read my doctors notes together, the signs are there of coeliac disease in a lot of my earlier visits to a doctor.
So why wasn’t I diagnosed earlier?
- There wasn’t a test for young children until 1960, so my early bad health couldn’t be diagnosed.
- No clue as to my problems was obtained until an elderly but extremely competent locum decided that my blood should be analysed as a fiftieth birthday present. I had no B12 and was running on empty.
- Eventually, I was sent to Addenbrooke’s and I was diagnosed by a blood test. I suspect it was a trial of a new genetic test, as I got the result by post in two days.
How many undiagnosed coeliacs are there in those over seventy, who because they are coeliacs, have a compromised immune system?
I would be undiagnosed but for that elderly locum!
How many other coeliacs were there in the UK population in 2020?
- Age UK had a figure of twelve million who were over 65 in the UK.
- If 1-in-100, as stated by Coeliac UK and the NHS, in the UK are coeliac, that is 120,000 coeliacs over 65.
- The NHS quotes the 1-in-100 figure on this web page, which also says reported cases of coeliac disease are higher in women than men.
Note that as of 2020, 177,388 have been diagnosed with Covid-19.
Conclusion
Many of those 120,000 coeliacs will have been born before 1960 and have a high probability of not having been diagnosed, for the simple reason, that a childhood test for coeliac disease didn’t exist.
Will these undiagnosed coeliacs have a compromised immune system, that makes them more susceptible to Covid-19?
It has been said, that a good immune system helps you fight Covid-19! From my personal experience of living fifty years as an undiagnosed coeliac and over twenty-three years after diagnosis, that my immune system is now a lot stronger.
A full statistical calculation of the elderly and Covid-19 needs to be done.
Coeliac Journey Through Covid-19 – Dexamethasone
Dexamethasone
In June 2020, I wrote Dexamethasone Declared First Drug To Save Lives Of Coronavirus Patients, after reading an article with the same title in The Times.
Out of curiosity, I typed “Dexamethasone and coeliac disease” into Google.
I found this page on SpringerLink, which is entitled The Role of Corticosteroids In Celiac Disease.
This is the first sentence.
Since Dickie first described the benefits of a gluten-free diet in the 1940s and 1950s, this diet is the standard of care for all patients with celiac disease. For patients with a new diagnosis, dietary compliance can be difficult to achieve, possibly resulting in a clinical course marked by delayed recovery and persistent symptoms. This is of particular concern for patients in the developing world, where gluten-free food items may be difficult to obtain or to identify. While dietary modifications are likely to remain the treatment of choice in celiac disease, the use of adjuvant corticosteroids in newly diagnosed patients is a topic that has been addressed previously.
According to a retired Senior Hospital Pharmacist friend, Dexamethasone has been around a long time and is used in shock. She added “So don’t know why not tried before.”
It does seem though that the drug has similar affects as a gluten-free diet on coeliacs.
Budesonide
Budesonide was also recommended for Covid-19 patients at one time, and is also linked to the treatment of coeliac disease.
As I keep saying more research needs to be done.
Will Hollywood Celebrity Involvement Be The Catalyst To Spark Development Of the Borderlands Line?
In Wrexham General Station – 4th May 2023, I showed this map, of Wrexham General station and the Racecourse Ground.
Consider.
- Wrexham A. F. C. are certainly a club, whose fans won’t need much encouragement to go to matches by train.
- I also feel that given the celebrity ownership, it will be one of those grounds where away supporters will want go.
- Its ground and Wrexham General station is well-served by direct trains from Birmingham, Cardiff, Liverpool and London.
- Interesting matches next year could be against Crewe, Newport and Tranmere.
I’m sure that because of the location of the ground and the celebrity owners, there will be pressure to improve the Borderlands Line to Liverpool.
The Wikipedia entry for the Borderlands Line has a section called Development, where this is said.
The doubling of the journey frequency on the line is one of the aims of the Growth Track 360 group, a consortium of business, politicians and public sector leaders. The group aims to improve transport and create jobs in the North Wales, Merseyside and Cheshire area over the next 20 years. During the 2017 Autumn budget, Chancellor Philip Hammond stated that part of the additional £1.2 billion funding Wales was receiving would be used to look into proposals to improve journey times on the line and developing a business case.
In October 2019, Transport for Wales announced £280,000 have been allocated to revamp stations along the line in north Wales and Merseyside, as part of TfW’s £194 million station improvement programme.
In a section called Proposed New Stations, these improvements have been proposed.
- Build a new station at Deeside Industrial Park.
- Build a new station at Woodchurch.
- Build a new station at Beechwood.
- Incorporate the line into the Merseyrail Wirral line to provide direct connectivity with Liverpool city centre.
- Replace the High and Low levels at Shotton station with a dedicated interchange station, improving connectivity between the North Wales Coast Main Line & the Borderlands line.
- Remove level crossings to improve line speed.
All these proposals seem reasonable.
There is also a section called Proposed Electrification, where this is said.
There have been proposals for the full or partial electrification of the line since 1999 with participation of Merseytravel and the devolved institutions in Wales. Such electrification is usually intertwined with proposals for the full incorporation of the line into the electrified Merseyrail network, allowing for services from either Wrexham Central or partway along the line to travel all the way to Birkenhead and Liverpool Central.
In 2008, a Network Rail study estimated the cost for third-rail electrification of the entire line to be £207 million. To lower costs, Merseytravel suggested overhead-wire electrification as an alternative, bringing estimates down to £66 million. However, this would mean trains running between Wrexham and Liverpool would have to be compatible with both electric systems, therefore incompatible with the third-rail only trains in use at the time.
There is political support to electrify the line from both Welsh and Merseyside authorities, however the responsibility of rail infrastructure lies with the UK Government’s Department for Transport. The Welsh Government aims to increase services between North Wales and Merseyside, in particular Wrexham and Deeside with Liverpool and Liverpool John Lennon Airport. Whereas Merseyside authorities would like to increase services to stations on the line on the Wirral Peninsula in particular, as well as the rest of the line.
In 2016, a working group had been set up to examine improving the line, including proposals to increase the frequency of trains on the line. It is hoped that an increase in the number of passengers would improve the case for electrification.
It seems that various solutions have been proposed.
Consider what will be available to Merseyrail and Transport for Wales within a year or so.
- Merseyrail will be running a new fleet of electric Class 777 trains.
- These new trains will be running from Bidston station and under Liverpool City Centre using the Wirral Line.
- Merseytravel has an option for a further 60 units.
- Class 777 trains are designed for running with 25 KVAC overhead electrification, should this be required in the future.
- Merseyrail and Transport for Wales will be working with Stadler on the use of battery-electric trains.
- Bidston and Wrexham Central are only 27.5 miles apart.
- The Borderlands Line is not the most challenging of rail lines to improve, as it is fairly straight and level.
- It is unlikely that Health and Safety would allow any more third rail electrification. But would this ban also apply in Wales?
- West Kirby trains run for 10.4 miles in 34 minutes to perform their loop under from Bidston under Liverpool City Centre.
- If Wrexham trains could turn under Liverpool City Centre, this would improve shopping, business and educational opportunities for those living along the Borderlands Line.
This section of the Wikipedia entry for the Borderlands Line says this about the range of the Class 777 trains on battery power.
The Liverpool City Region Combined Authority announced that trials of the seven battery electric multiple unit (BEMU) versions of their new Class 777 had shown that they were capable of travelling up to 20 miles (32 km) without a charge. Further trials by Stadler reached a range of 84 miles (135 km). This would allow the line to be served without the full electrification.
In Battery Answer To Schleswig-Holstein’s Diesel Replacement Question, I talked about how Stadler were using battery-electric trains to replace diesels in Schleswig-Holstein.
It seems obvious to me, that Stadler would have experience of a suitable battery-electric train and charging system, that could be applied to the Borderlands Line.
- I would suspect that the 34 minutes that the train would take to go from Bidston to Liverpool and back to Bidston would be more than adequate to fully charge the batteries on a train.
- This would be enough to get a full train to Wrexham, even when Liverpool or Everton were playing an FA Cup match against Wrexham A. F. C.
But how would trains recharge at Wrexham? This map from OpenRailwayMap shows the track layout at Wrexham.
Note.
- Wrexham Central station is in the South-East corner of the map.
- Wrexham General station is towards the top of the map marked by blue letters.
- A single track connects Platform 4 at Wrexham General station to the single platform at Wrexham Central station.
It looks like space could be a bit limited at Wrexham Central station, so would it be an idea to electrify between the two stations?
A train takes typically about seven minutes from arrival at Wrexham General station from Bidston until it leaves the station to return to Bidston.
- This should be enough to charge the train fully.
- Theoretically, it would allow Wrexham to have a four trains per hour (tph) service to Liverpool.
- Electrifying between the two stations would be about 0.6 miles of single-track electrification.
- Connection and disconnection to the electrification would be in Wrexham General station.
- The electrification would only be switched on, when there is a train using it. This could be arranged using simple automation or by employing another signaller.
I do wonder if Welsh Health and Safety would allow third-rail electrification? If it’s a UK matter, then give it to the Welsh Government. But it would be the only third-rail electrification in the Principality.
Conclusion
I believe that if the Welsh Government would allow third-rail electrification, the service could start as soon as Merseyrail has enough battery trains.
South Korea Targets Over 2,000 Hydrogen Buses By 2026
The title of this post, is the same as that of this news item from Argus Media.
This is the sub-heading.
South Korea plans to convert more than 250 commuter buses intro hydrogen-fuelled buses by this year and more than 2,000 by 2026, in a concerted effort to raise the uptake of hydrogen vehicles.
It appears to be a well-thought plan.
This last paragraph gives South Korea’s long-term objective.
A higher uptake of hydrogen vehicles is in line with the hydrogen roadmap the government released in November 2022, where it envisioned the transportation sector as one of the key drivers of large-scale hydrogen demand. South Korea aims to raise its supply of high-mobility vehicles such as hydrogen buses and trucks, with a goal of producing 30,000 hydrogen commercial vehicles and building 70 liquid hydrogen refuelling stations in the country by 2030.
We need an ambitious plan like this in the United Kingdom.
As the UK population is thirty percent larger than South Korea’s we probably need one with similar but larger ambitions.
Green Hydrogen Production Facility
The title of this post is the same as this project on the Arup web site.
This is the introduction.
Green hydrogen – hydrogen produced using 100% renewable energy – holds promise as a future, low emission energy source. Across the world many players are beginning to explore or invest in its production at scale.
Statkraft are Europe’s largest renewable energy producer and are investing heavily in green hydrogen as an energy source for use in transportation and industry. Statkraft have identified a site in Pembrokeshire for a green hydrogen production facility near to the Haven Waterway Enterprise Zone, an area focusing on developing opportunities within the energy and environment sectors.
This green energy hub will be located on the former Royal Navy Armaments Depot in Trecwn, Pembrokeshire. During development, the site employed over 3,000 people, and it is hoped that this new facility can continue to support highly skilled jobs in the area, while contributing to the Welsh Government’s net zero strategy.
Statkraft have a web page for the Trecwn Green Energy Hub, where this is said about the expected production.
It is estimated that the 15MW hydrogen plant will generate up to 4 tonnes of hydrogen a day, the equivalent of powering a single bus for over 40,000 miles. The hydrogen produced could be used locally for a range of purposes including transport, as a feedstock or heat source for industry and manufacturing, as well as for heating buildings.
This Google Map shows the location of Trecwn in Pembrokeshire.
Note.
- The red arrow indicates Trecwn.
- The port of Fishguard is just to the North of Trecwn.
The site appears to be at RNAD Trecwn, which is a decommissioned Royal Navy Armaments Depot.
This second Google Map shows the remains of some of the site.
Note the railway line to the site, which is visible in West of the map, which connects to Carmarthen, Fishguard, Milford Haven and Pembroke Dock.
Wikipedia says this about its condition.
Network Rail have not only kept the railway connection operational, but refurbished it to allow the site to develop as an Intermodal freight traffic distribution site from Fishguard.
Note.
This would surely enable local trains, port operations, railway locomotives and ships to be hydrogen-powered.
- Trains and railway locomotives could be filled on the site.
- Buses and trucks could be filled on the site.
- Ports could be supplied by hydrogen trains.
- Strangely, I’ve not seen a design for a short hydrogen delivery train, which would be needed to supply the ports. But I doubt, it would be difficult to design and build.
All the Health and Safety protocols could probably easily be created, given the former use of the site.
Conclusion
Statkraft seem to have chosen an ideal site for the hydrogen electrolyser.
Coeliac Journey Through Covid-19 – Three Peer-Reviewed Papers
Three Peer-Reviewed Papers
As the pandemic took hold, I was spending more time looking for peer-reviewed papers concerning coeliacs and Covid-19.
By mid-2020, because of the lockdown in Leicester, the large numbers of deaths of South Indian medical staff in London and the situation in India, I had increased the number of searches to include papers about coeliac disease in India.
These three posts on my blog all have the same title as peer-reviewed papers I have found.
Risk of COVID-19 In Celiac Disease Patients
Coeliac Disease: Can We Avert The Impending Epidemic In India?
Wrexham General Station – 4th May 2023
I took these pictures on my trip to Wrexham General station, yesterday.
Note.
- The station is next to the Racecourse Ground, which is the home of Wrexham A.F. C.
- I didn’t walk to the ground, but there can be few league grounds, in England, Scotland or Wales, that are closer to a station.
- There is a one train per hour (tph) service along the Borderlands Line to Bidston station on the Wirral Line.
- It is a well-equipped station with lifts, toilets and a cafe.
It was tastefully refurbished in the 1990s.
This Google Map shows the relationship between the Racecourse Ground and Wrexham General station.
It can’t be much for than about two hundred metres between the station and the ground.
The Anonymous Widower 