Thoughts On The COVID-19 Testing
I must first congratulate all those involved in organising and carrying-out the tests.
As someone, who has analysed many large databases for patterns of perhaps marketing information, product recalls or criminal activity, 100,000 tests per day or million in ten days, is a very large amount of hopefully reliable data, that I believe can be used to answer a lot of relevant questions about the progress of this pandemic and our very boring (For me, at least!) lockdown.
I hope, that the tests collect all the right data to go along with the physical data.
But I suspect that some important scientifically-correct questions won’t be asked. For instance.
- What is your place of birth?
- What is your BMI?
- How much exercise do you do every day?
- What is your religion?
- How often do you attend a religious service?
- How many in your household?
- How many generations in your household?
- Do you have a pet that needs exercise?
- Do you have any drug habits?
- Do you have any allergies?
- Do you smoke?
- How much alcohol do you drink?
- Are you vegetarian?
Only by collecting a full database alongside the testing process, will we get maximum value out of the testing.
Highview Power Keeping Up Momentum
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on Gas World.
This is the introductory paragraph.
It’s full steam ahead for Highview Power as the energy storage provider’s CEO and President today updated on operations.
It does look thatHighview are optimistic since their partnership with Sumitomo Heavy Industries was announced, that I wrote about in Japanese Giant Sumitomo Heavy Invests In Liquid-Air Energy Storage Pioneer.
I am optimistic too!
- Highview’s system uses no difficult technology or rare materials.
- The system can provide large amounts of storage, which we are going to need with all the wind farms we are developing.
- From my Control Engineering and mathematical modelling experience, I believe, these systems can be used to boost power, where it is needed, in the same way gas-fired power stations do.
But above all, Highview Power has created a standalone energy storage system for the Twenty-First Century, that catches the needs and moods of the Age!
Our energy system is changing and it not expressed any better, than in this article on Physics World, which is entitled Does The UK Need 40 GW Of Firm Capacity?
This is the opening sentence.
Whether it comes from nuclear plants or fossil fuel-fired power stations with carbon capture and storage (CCS), the UK will need 30-40 GW of new “firm” low-carbon baseload generation by 2050 to meet the net-zero emissions target, Greg Clark reportedly said.
I don’t think that the country will allow any Government of the UK to build that much nuclear capacity and I have my doubts about the feasibility of large scale CCS. I also don’t think, the public will allow the building of large coal-fired power stations, even with CCS. And they don’t like nuclear either!
On Wikipedia, Wind Power in the UK, says this about the current Round 3 of proposals for wind farms.
Following on from the Offshore wind SEA announced by the Government in December 2007, the Crown Estate launched a third round of site allocations in June 2008. Following the success of Rounds 1 and 2, and important lessons were learnt – Round 3 was on a much bigger scale than either of its predecessors combined (Rounds 1 and 2 allocated 8 GW of sites, while Round 3 alone could identify up to 25 GW).
If you think UK politics is a lot of wind and bluster, that is pussy-cat’s behaviour compared to the roaring lions around our shores.
Wikipedia then lists nine fields, with a total power of 26.7 GW, but some are not being built because of planning.
But we ain’t seen noting yet!
Wikipedia says this about Round 4.
Round 4 was announced in 2019 and represented the first large scale new leasing round in a decade. This offers the opportunity for up to 7GW of new offshore capacity to be developed in the waters around England and Wales.
The Agreements for Lease will be announced in 2021.
Wikipedia then makes these points.
- Nuclear power stations have funding and technical problems.
- Since the Fukushima nuclear disaster public support for new nuclear has fallen
- The UK government increased its previous commitment for 40 GW of Offshore wind capacity by 2030, in the Queen’s Speech in December 2019.
- In 2020, this represents a 355% increase in ten years.
- It is expected the Crown Estate will announce multiple new leasing Rounds and increases to existing bidding areas throughout the 2020-2030 period to achieve the governments aim of 40 GW.
- The Scottish Government has plans to chip in 6 GW.
I will add these feelings of my own
- I have ignored the contribution, that better wind-power technology will make to get more GW for each billion pounds of investment.
- I can see a day, in the not too distant future, when on a day in the summer, no electricity in the UK comes from fossil fuel.
- There will be a merging between wind power and hydrogen generation, as I described in ITM Power and Ørsted: Wind Turbine Electrolyser Integration.
- Traditional nuclear is dead, although there may be applications for small nuclear reactors in the future.
- In parallel to the growth of wind power, there will be a massive growth of solar power.
But we will need to store some of this energy for times when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining.
- Pumped storage hydroelectric schemes, as at Electric Mountain in Snowdonia may have a part to play as I described in The New Generation Of Pumped Storage Systems. But sadly, the UK doesn’t have the terrain for another 9.1 GWh scheme.
- A lot of electricity will be converted to hydrogen to power industrial processes and augment and possibly replace natural gas in the UK’s gas network.
- Some electricity will be stored in batteries in houses and vehicles, when it is most affordable and used, when it is more expensive.
- Companies and funds, like Gresham House Energy Storage Fund will fund and build storage facilities around the UK.
- Traditional lithium-ion batteries require a lot of expensive raw materials controlled by the Chinese!
- But if we develop all these options, and generate tens of GWs using renewables, the UK will still need a substantial amount of GW-scale affordable energy storage systems.
It is my belief, that Highview Power is the only practical GW-scale affordable energy storage system.
My only worry about their system, is that the idea could be ripped off, by an unscrupulous country with a solid process plant industry!
To Revive Economy, Think Infrastructure
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on CommonWealth.
This is the sub-title.
It worked in the Great Recession and it can work now.
The author is talking about Massachusetts in 2008, but I’m sure it would work in the UK and other countries in 2020.
Projects I would bring forward in the UK.
- Build lots of wind farms, both onshore and offshore.
- Build energy storage. I would go for Highview Power.
- Use wind energy to generate hydrogen for industrial processes. ITM Power in Rotherham, have the technology.
- Build a refuelling network for hydrogen-powered cars, buses, trucks and other vehicles.
- Add new rail stations to the network, where needed.
- Update all possible rail, tram, light rail and Underground stations so they are step-free.
- Build the electrified Huddersfield and Leeds upgrade to the TransPennine Route.
- Expand the Blackpool Tram, the Edinburgh Tram, the Manchester Metrolink, Merseyrail, the Nottingham Express Transit, the Sheffield Supertram, the Tyne and Wear Metro and the West Midlands Metro.
- Extend the Docklands Light Railway West to Charing Cross, Euston, St. Pancras and Victoria.
I would setup a construction pipeline, so all areas of the country got a share of the new infrastructure.
We must be bold.
The Death Of My Son George
In some ways our youngest son; George, was more my baby, than my wife’s!
When you have three children under three, you have to devise a system so they can all be fed, watered and managed.
In the early 1970s, I was working at home, writing software for the likes of companies like Lloyds Bank, Plessey, Ferranti and others, usually by means of a dial-up line to a company called Time Sharing Ltd. in Great Portland Street.
- So most days George sat on my desk in a plastic baby chair, as I worked.
- C would look after the two elder children, generally taking them to the park or friends.
- George was still in nappies, real not disposable. We did use a nappy service!
- I sometimes wonder, if I can still install a proper nappy on a baby!
- I would feed him as I worked.
- George also used to come with me to visit clients, I had to meet at Great Portland Street. Usually, the secretaries would steal him away.
It was a system, that worked well for all of us.
Of our three children, George was the only one, that C thought could be coeliac, as I am. Mothers know their families! We once tried to test him with a self-test kit from the Internet. but the results were inconclusive.
I now believe he was coeliac for one genetic reason. His daughter was born with a severe congenital hernia of the diaphragm and research shows this can be linked to a coeliac father.
At least I was lucky with my three boys in this respect, but it points to George being coeliac.
George worked in the music business and was the sound engineer on some of the work of Diane Charlemagne. I met Diane once, when I stood on The Fourth Plinth in Trafalgar Square, which I wrote about in Fun and Games at the Fourth Plinth.
- Diane was working as the security guard and it was an amazing coincidence, that we realised our connection through George.
- She spoke highly of his work.
Sadly Diane died of kidney cancer in 2015.
George didn’t drink, but he smoked heavily and not just tobacco. He also lived on a very gluten-rich diet of Subways and the like.
I suspect that his immune system was as good as much protection as a chocolate colander in a tsunami!
I have discussed this with doctors, who specialise in cancer and they feel that it could have contributed to his death from pancreatic cancer.
- George died at home.
- He was not in much pain due to the morphine he was controlling through a pump and the cannabis he was smoking.
- One day, he was in bed and talking to my then aristocratic girlfriend and myself, when he just expired.
- There was no drama and he just went to sleep.
A few minutes later, my girlfriend and the housekeeper, laid out the body for the undertaker.
I had been at George’s quiet death, just like I had been at the birth of all three sons.
Looking Back
George died ten years ago and his death has left some marks on my mind.
- Because of our early relationship, some of my grief for George was more like that of a mother.
- George died a peaceful death, which with modern medicine should be almost a right for many!
- His death has driven me to fund and take part in medical research, especially for pancreatic cancer.
- I also feel strongly, we should steer clear of cannabis, eat sensibly and check as many as possible for coeliac disease.
But now above all, I have no fear of Covid-19 or death.
Thoughts On Coeliacs And Covid-19 In Cambridgeshire
I was diagnosed as a coeliac by Addenbrooke’s Hospital in Cambridge.
- One of the consultants there told me, that they had a very high number of coeliacs on the books and the number was one of the highest in the country.
- I also used to eat in Carluccios in the centre of Cambridge and the manager once told me that they did an Annual Dinner for the local branch of Coeliac UK.
- He also told me, that they had the highest gluten-free sales in the group.
I think it is fairly likely that Cambridge has a lot of diagnosed coeliacs.
But it is not a place with health problems, that jump out of the pages of the tabloids.
My theory is that because Cambridge does a lot of gastroenterology research, they have a good rate in finding coeliacs.
So how is Cambridgeshire doing in the COVID-19 pandemic?
In Five Eastern Counties, I said this about COVID-19 in Cambridgeshire and Suffolk, where a lot of patients go to Addenbrooke’s.
- Cambridgeshire – 673 of 852,523 or 0.08%
- Suffolk – 936 of 768,556 or 0.12%
Both seem to be low. How do they compare to Oxfordshire?
- Oxfordshire – 1515 of 887, 564 or 0.17%
I wouldn’t have thought that Oxfordshire would have a rate twice that of Cambridgeshire!
- The counties are similar in population.
- Both have proportions of industry, farming and academia
- The cities of Oxford and Cambridge are similar in character
Could it be that Addenbrooke’s has diagnosed most of the coeliacs in Cambridgeshire?
I’m no medical expert, but someone should look at it!
A Thought On Deaths Of The Elderly From Covid-19
It has been shown, that a lot of the deaths from Covid-19 are over seventy.
I am seventy-two and a coeliac, which was diagnosed when I was fifty.
As my GP practice nurse said at the time of my diagnosis, as we read my doctors notes together, the signs are there of coeliac disease in a lot of my visits to a doctor.
So why wasn’t I diagnosed earlier?
- There wasn’t a test for young children until 1960, so my early bad health couldn’t be diagnosed.
- No clue as to my problems was obtained until an elderly but extremely competent locum decided that my blood should be analysed as a fiftieth birthday present. I had no B12 and was running on empty.
- Eventually, I was sent to Addenbrooke’s and I was diagnosed by a blood test. I suspect it was a trial of a new genetic test, as I got the result by post in two days.
How many undiagnosed coeliacs are there in those over seventy, who because they are coeliacs, have a compromised immune system?
I would be undiagnosed but for that elderly locum!
How many other coeliacs are there in the UK population?
- Age UK has a figure of twelve million who are over 65 in the UK.
- If 1-in-100, as stated by Coeliac UK, in the UK are coeliac, that is 120,000 coeliacs over 65.
Note that as of today 177,388 have been diagnosed with Covid-19.
Conclusion
Many of those 120,000 coeliacs will have been born before 1960 and have a high probably of not having been diagnosed. for the simple reason, that a childhood test for coeliac disease didn’t exist.
Will these undiagnosed coeliacs have a compromised immune system, that makes them more susceptible to Covid-19?
It has been said, that a good immune system helps you fight Covid-19!
InPipe Energy: Power Through Pressure
The title of this post is the same as that of this story on CleantechConcepts.
This is the introductory paragraph.
It’s the new hydropower. Not dams, no reservoirs, just pipes. With help from Oregon State engineering researchers, an Oregon startup company is developing a system to generate carbon-free electricity from a previously untapped water source: the pipes under our streets.
I think this could be an interesting idea. But could it be applied in the UK and Europe?
Solar Freeze
I found this simple idea on an awards web-site.
Solar Freeze is designed to solve this problem.
In much of the developing world, postharvest losses are as high as 80% and the cold‐storage chain is virtually non‐existent due to the high cost of equipment and spotty electricity. Because fresh produce can perish in a matter of days under ambient temperatures, temperature control alone can extend the shelf life by weeks or even months.
And this is their solution.
Solar Freeze is pioneering mobile cold storage units powered by renewable energy for rural smallholder farmers, to help them reduce the huge challenge of post-harvest loss in much of the developing world, postharvest losses are as high as 80% and the cold-storage chain is virtually non-existent due to the high cost of equipment and spotty electricity.
I do like the term spotty electricity!
They’ve come up with products like this mobile solar-powered cold room.
I’ve also found this video.
This is the sort of help and innovation, that a lot of the world needs.
London Church Investigated Over ‘Protection’ Oil
The title of this post, is the same as that as this story on the BBC.
This is the first two paragraphs.
A faith healer who sold £91 “plague protection kits” claiming they could shield people from Covid-19 is being investigated by the charity watchdog.
Bishop Climate Wiseman of the Kingdom Church in Camberwell, London, claimed a bottle of oil and some red yarn would protect his followers from the virus.
Surely, he should be being investigated by the Metropolitan Police!
As far as I can see, the purpose of some religion is to let a few men, live a good life, at the expense of others.
Wrightbus Boss Eyes All-Island Green Transport Plan
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the Irish Independent.
This is the introductory paragraph.
THE new owner of manufacturer Wrightbus says 12,000 buses on the island of Ireland as well as trains could be replaced with hydrogen engines to usher in a new era of environmentally friendly transport.
These points are made in the article.
- Jo Bamford, who is the owner of Wrightbus, plans to decarbonise all buses and trains on the island.
- A hydrogen infrastructure would need to be setup.
- The Enterprise train between Belfast and Dublin would be run by hydrogen.
- Jo Bamford has yet to talk to the Irish Government.
- Wrightbus is seeking a £500m subsidy from the UK Government to built 3,000 hydrogen-powered buses by 2024.
- This would bring 1,500 jobs to Ballymena.
- The ydrogen-powered buses, will be the same price as diesel.
- New Whightbus hydrogen buses will be on the streets of London and Aberdeen later this year.
This is one of the last paragraphs of the article.
He (Jo Bamford) said that the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on the environment, with a clearer sky and cleaner air resulting from the fall in traffic, could be an inspiration for greener transport.
It may be an ambitious plan, but then you would expect ambition to be flowing in large quantifies in the veins of someone from the family, that gave us JCB.
Will Hydrogen Double-Deck Buses Become Commonplace?
There are now three different designs of hydrogen-powered double-deck bus in design, if not production.
- AlexanderDennis – See New Facility To Power Liverpool’s Buses With Hydrogen
- Optare – See New Hydrogen Double-Decker Bus Launched
- Wrightbus
There is also the hydrogen-powered version of the Van Hool ExquiCity tram-bus, that I wrote about in Ballard-Powered Fuel-Cell Tram-Buses From Van Hool Now In Revenue Service In France.
There are some big players making large investments in hydrogen-powered buses. I suspect at least three and possibly all four will succeed.
Designing A Hydrogen-Powered Vehicle
Two hydrogen-powered vehicle designs have impressed me this week.
- The Optare design, where the battery of an electric bus was replaced by a hydrogen power system.
- The mining dump-truck, that I wrote about in Thirsty High-Rollers … Mining’s Heavy Haulers Prime Candidates For Hydrogen Conversion.
Both designs use the existing electric transmission and seem to have been relatively straightforward for experienced engineers who are working in the field.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see other suitable vehicles redesigned for hydrogen power.
The Anonymous Widower 