Could London And Central Scotland Air Passengers Be Persuaded To Use The Trains?
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Edinburgh?
Wikipedia gives these figures for 2024 for passengers from Edinburgh to London
- London City – 334,873
- London Gatwick – 476,152
- London Heathrow – 1,148,634
- London Luton – 338, 729
- London Stansted – 693,953
This gives a total of 2,992,341.
As Wikipedia doesn’t give complete figures for from London to Edinburgh, for the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume they are the same.
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Glasgow?
Wikipedia gives these figures for 2024 for passengers from Glasgow to London
- London City – 208,405
- London Gatwick – 456,002
- London Heathrow – 954,027
- London Luton – 255,095
- London Stansted – 225,110
This gives a total of 2,098,639.
As Wikipedia doesn’t give complete figures for from London to Glasgow, for the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume they are the same.
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
Adding the two figures gives 5,090,980. in both directions.
Which is an average of 97,903 per week or 13,948 per day.
How Many Train Seats Run Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
These figures are for Friday the 1st of August.
- Aventi West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 5 x 9-car Class 390 train – 2,345 seats
- Aventi West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 16 x 11-car Class 390 train – 6,677 seats
- LNER – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh – 26 x 9-car Class 801 train – 15,886 seats
- Lumo – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh – 5 x 5-car Class 803 train – 2,010 seats
Note.
- All services are all-electric.
- All services are fairly new or have recently been refurbished,
This gives a total of 26,918 train seats.
Adding Lumo’s Service To Glasgow
In Lumo Will Extend Its King’s Cross And Edinburgh Service To Glasgow, I suggested that the Glasgow service would be run as follows from December 2025.
- Two existing Lumo services will leave London as pairs of five-car trains.
- The pairs will split at Edinburgh.
- The leading train will go on to Glasgow Queen Street calling at Edinburgh Haymarket and Falkirk High stations.
- The trailing train will return to London King’s Cross.
- At the end of the day, the two trains in Glasgow will do a fast run back to London King’s Cross as a pair of 5-car trains.
This will add 804 seats per day between London and Glasgow Queen Street in both directions.
The daily total would now total 27,722 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
Adding Lumo’s Service To Stirling
In Lumo To Expand Scotland’s Rail Network With New London-Stirling Rail Route From Spring 2026, I talk about Lumo’s new service to Stirling.
- There will be five trains per day (tpd) in each direction.
- Lumo’s new route will link London Euston directly to Stirling, also calling at Milton Keynes, Nuneaton, Crewe, Preston, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet (serving Coatbridge), Greenfaulds (serving Cumbernauld) and Larbert.
- The service will use 6-car Class 222 trains, which in the linked post, I estimate will have a similar one-class capacity to the Class 803 trains between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh.
- If the capacity of the two train types is similar, this should give operational advantages and allow some more Class 803 trains to run the Euston and Stirling route.
This second Scottish route will add 2010 train seats per day between London Euston and Stirling in both directions.
The daily total would now total 29,732 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
Could More Capacity Be Added Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
I believe some of the Lumo services between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh could be doubled up to a pair of trains.
There would have to be no platform length issues at London King’s Cross, Stevenage, Newcastle and Morpeth stations.
If three trains could be doubled up, that would add 1,206 train seats per day between London and Edinburgh in both directions.
The daily total would now total 30,938 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
I also suspect, that some of the Stirling services could be doubled up.
Connectivity Of England’s Northern Airports To London And Central Scotland
Birmingham Airport
Consider.
- There are easyJet flights to Edinburgh and Glasgow
- There are 1.5 trains per hour (tph) between Birmingham New Street and Edinburgh.
- There are 6 tpd between Birmingham New Street and Glasgow.
You would make your choice and pay the money.
East Midlands Airport
There are no flights or trains to Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Leeds Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Leeds and Edinburgh
- There is one tpd between Leeds and Glasgow
Could Leeds and Glasgow get better connectivity?
Liverpool Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Liverpool Lime Street and Edinburgh
- There is three tpd between Liverpool Lime Street and Glasgow
The Liverpool area is well connected to Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston stations on the West Coast Main Line for alternative services to Glasgow.
Manchester Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Manchester Airport and Scotland via Manchester Piccadilly and Manchester Oxford Road, which alternates between Edinburgh and Glasgow.
The Manchester area is well connected to Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston stations on the West Coast Main Line for alternative services to Glasgow.
Omio gives this summary of flights between Heathrow and Manchester airports.
Flights from Manchester Airport to London Heathrow Airport depart on average 8 times per day, taking around 1h 6m. Cheap flight tickets for this journey start at £63 but you can travel from only £16 by coach.
Wrightbus and others will be producing mouse-quiet hydrogen-powered coaches in a couple of years. I suspect these will give short flights a good kicking.
Newcastle Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is three tph between Newcastle and Edinburgh with an additional 5 tpd from Lumo.
- There is two tpd between Newcastle and Glasgow.
- There is one tpd between Newcastle and Stirling.
- From December 2025, Lumo will add two tpd from Newcastle to Glasgow and one tpd from Glasgow to Newcastle.
- In Lumo Will Extend Its King’s Cross And Edinburgh Service To Glasgow, I stated that I believe that Lumo’s Glasgow to Newcastle service will be a late evening ten-car train, so travellers can have a long day in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Newcastle and still return to London.
Lumo would appear to fill in the gap between Newcastle and Glasgow.
Google AI gives this summary of flights between Heathrow and Newcastle airports.
There are usually 5-6 direct flights per day between Newcastle and Heathrow airports. These flights are operated by British Airways. The average flight time is around 1 hour and 10 minutes.
Note.
- In 2024, 497, 469 passengers flew between between Heathrow and Newcastle airports, which is an average of 681 passengers in each direction every day.
- This was an increase of 13.6 % on 2023.
- From December Lumo will be running extra London King’s Cross and Newcastle services, with each train having 402 seats.
- The improvements in rail services in and around Newcastle in recent months, will surely bring more passengers to use trains from Newcastle station.
- Will Lumo also target adverts at airline passengers?
London and Newcastle could be another route for mouse-quiet hydrogen-powered coaches.
Conclusion
These numbers summarise my calculations.
- Currently an average of 13,948 passengers per day fly between London and Central Scotland.
- Currently, there are 26,918 train seats available per day between London and Central Scotland.
- In December 2025, Lumo will add another 804 low-cost train seats between London King’s Cross and Glasgow Queen Street.
- In Spring 2026, Lumo will add 2010 low-cost train seats between London Euston and Stirling.
- From Spring 2026, there will be 29,732 train seats available per day between London and Central Scotland.
- This represents a 10 % increase of seats on the trains between London and Central Scotland.
How many passengers, who normally fly, will switch to using the train?
- Lumo may only offer one class, but you get a trolley and can order food from M & S and others to be delivered to your seat.
- Both LNER and Lumo accept dogs. I don’t know about Avanti.
- All services will be all-electric, when Lumo gets its new electric trains for Stirling, in a few years.
- It looks to me like Lumo could be offering a late train back to London from Edinburgh and Glasgow.
- Digital signalling on the East Coast Main Line should speed up services.
If Lumo to Glasgow and Stirling works out, it could also cut the total carbon footprint of travel between London and Central Scotland.
Sutton Station To Gatwick Airport By Hydrogen-Powered Bus
In Central London and Gatwick Airport For Free On A Freedom Pass, I indicated it was possible to go to Gatwick Airport for nothing, if you had a Freedom Pass, which is also a free bus pass for England.
This morning I took public transport to Gatwick Airport by this route.
- I took a 43 bus to London Bridge station.
- This bus terminates in the bus station in front of the train station, so it was a simple step-free entry into the part of the station, where Southern Trains terminate.
- I took a Southern Train to Sutton station.
- I then took a Metrobus 420 bus from Sutton station to Gatwick Airport.
These pictures show the journey.
Note.
- The bus stop is directly outside the entrance to Sutton station.
- Sutton station is step-free.
- The information on the Metrobus’s buses at Sutton station is poor.
- The bus had a 74 number plate, so was registered after September 1st, 2024.
- The bus said it was a hydrogen bus.
- The seats were comfortable with leather facings.
- The route was mainly through rural Surrey.
- There were sections of dual-carriageway road with continuous 40 mph running.
- There were a number of steep hills.
- Previously, I have been told by a Bradford Councillor, that the City of Bradford is going for hydrogen-powered buses , as the city has lots of steep hills.
- The unusual Reigate and Redhill War Memorial on the A25.
- The route goes past Hadworth, Reigate and Redhill stations.
- Just before Gatwick Airport, the bus called at East Surrey Hospital.
I have some thoughts.
Does This Hydrogen Bus Have Almost The Quality Passengers Would Expect From A Coach?
Consider.
- I was very impressed with the quality of the bus and its fittings.
- But its biggest assets were the ride and mouse-quiet noise and being vibration-free.
- It was certainly up there, with the best British buses on UK roads.
- Strangely, I never rode in any of London’s Green Line coaches of the 1950s and 1960s.
But as Wrightbus are selling hydrogen-powered single-decker buses to the Germans, the quality must be of a certain standard.
The Performance Of The Bus
I would sum up the bus as follows.
- The bus didn’t hang around and it was well-driven.
- On much of the dual-carriageway, the bus appeared to be at the maximum speed limit of 40 mph
- Ride and seats were comfortable.
- There was virtually no vibration.
- At times, you almost felt you were in a top-of-the-range coach.
- The running gear is from German company ZF, which certainly doesn’t hinder the ride.
- The journey from Sutton to Gatwick Airport is twenty miles and took about ninety minutes.
I would feel that if Wrightbus design their CoachH2 chassis to the same standard of this bus, they’ll have a difficulty to meet sales demand.
Wrightbus Hydrogen Buses For My Local Bus Route 141
Consider.
- The 141 bus route is my local bus, which gets me to Moorgate, Bank, London Bridge and Manor House.
- The length of the full route is twenty miles and it takes about an hour to go from London Bridge station to Palmers Green.
- The route is currently run by older Wrightbus hybrid diesel-electric buses.
- I suspect that modern hydrogen buses could last almost all day on one fill of hydrogen, with perhaps a top-up at lunchtime.
They would have no difficulty handling the route and would greatly increase the customers current rock-bottom satisfaction.
Hydrogen Buses In Leafy Suburbs
- Where I live, is not particularly leafy or a suburb.
- But I seems to remember, when I moved here, that some of my neighbours complained about the noise of the 76 bus route.
- So Transport for London put on some quieter buses.
I would expect, that Metrobus might use the mouse quieter hydrogen buses in post areas, to avoid annoyance.
Hydrogen Buses As Route Extenders
Effectively, the Metrobus route 420 is acting as a route extender for Southern and Thameslink services coming South from London.
As it is a quality bus, that gets a move on, I suspect that some travellers, who previously took a train to Sutton, Tadworth, Reigate, Redhill or other stations and were then picked up, may take a hydrogen bus to a more convenient bus stop.
Because of the long range of a hydrogen bus or coach, zero-carbon performance, should be achieved without any range anxiety for passengers, driver or bus company.
Onward From Oakhampton Parkway Station
Consider.
- In 2014, storms destroyed the railway at Dawlish in Devon.
- As there was no alternative route, the storms cut everything west of Dawlish off from the rest of the UK.
- It is now likely, that a Park-and-Ride station will be built close to Okehanpton, which commuters would use for travel to Exeter.
- The main road to the South-West ; the A 30 will pass nearby.
It would appear, that Okehampton Interchange station could be used, if Nepture decided to show his power again.
Hopefully, the emergency plan will scare Nepture away.
Lumo To The Scottish Borders
Consider.
- Lumo have applied to extend some of their Edinburgh services to Glasgow.
- Talking to a friend in the Scottish Borders, they said, that travelers drive to Newcastle or Morpeth to catch Lumo for London.
- Four or five Lumo services every day stop in each direction at Morpeth station.
- So would it be sensible to run a bus or coach through the Scottish Borders to connect with the Lumo services?
This Google Map shows Morpeth in relation to the Border towns.
Note.
- Morpeth is marked by the red arrow in the South-East corner of the map.
- Galashiels, Galashiels, Hawick, Jedburgh, Peebles, Saint Boswells and Selkirk can be picked out on the map.
- The coach service would probably terminate at Galashiels, as it has a large bus terminal and and a railway station.
- Click the map to show it to a larger scale.
Morpeth to Galashiels is 69 miles and it should take about an hour and a half.
Hydrogen Buses As Rail Replacement Buses
Consider.
- I have had Rail Replacement Coaches as opposed to buses a few times in the UK.
- Once on the East Coast Main Line but usually on the Great Eastern Main Line to Ipswich or Norwich.
- They are generally more suited to their task. as they are faster and more luxurious.
- Many of our major rail lines run alongside trunk roads or motorways or fast dual carriageways.
So because hydrogen buses and coaches a have superior performance, than their diesel cousins, will hydrogen be the better fuel for a Rail Replacement Bus.
Metrobus’s Hydrogen Buses
This press release on the Metrobus web site is entitled Hydrogen Buses.
This is the sub-heading.
Our commitment to Zero Emissions
As part of our commitment to reducing emissions, twenty new hydrogen fuelled buses will operate on Fastway routes 10 & 20. These new buses demonstrate an ongoing commitment to reducing our local emissions. They deliver against science-based targets set by Metrobus and its parent company, The Go-Ahead Group, of becoming a net zero business by 2045 and decarbonising our bus fleet by 2035.
Conclusion
This bus is the best I’ve ridden in.
Cafe Plans For Derelict Building On New Rail Line
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the sub-heading.
A disused building on a newly reopened railway line could be saved if planners back proposals, external for its renovation.
These three paragraphs give more details.
One structure at Bedlington station in Northumberland has already been demolished but plans have been submitted which would save the building on the northbound side.
It was used until 1964 when the line closed, and while passenger services on the Northumberland Line between Ashington and Newcastle resumed last year, a new station in Bedlington has not yet been completed.
East Bedlington Parish Council chair Keith Grimes said: “It’s one of the oldest buildings in the parish, so it’s definitely worth keeping.”
I wrote about my visit to the new Northumberland Line in My First Trip On The Northumberland Line – 18th December 2024.
If the Northumberland Line is going to attract leisure travelers, a sprinkling of cafes along the line is a must.
These are pictures of Bedlington from my earlier trip.
Note.
- I’d hoped I’d got a picture of the prospective cafe. But no luck.
- I didn’t see any Bedlington Terriers either.
- But then there are several of those excellent and distinctive dogs, near where I live in London.
The station should be operational this year, but it appears there’s still a lot of work to do.
Access To The Coast
This OpenRailwayMap shows the railway lines of Northumberland in relation to the coast.
Note.
- The orange line is the East Coast Main Line between Newcastle and Edinburgh.
- Morpeth is the station on the Western edge of the map.
- The yellow line is the Northumberland Line between Newcastle and Ashington.
- The site of the new Bedlington station is indicated by the blue arrow.
It looks to me, that there are a lot of disused railway lines, that could be used to develop the Northumberland Line into a system with a much wider coverage.
The Wikipedia entry for the Northumberland line does say this about Ashington station.
Ashington station has been developed in such a way that an extension, such as that previously proposed to Newbiggin-by-the-Sea and Woodhorn could still be built, albeit part of a separate scheme.
Note.
- Newbiggin-by-the-Sea is East of Ashington.
- Woodburn is on a line that goes to the West of the East Coast Main Line.
- The extensions would open up the area for more housing and rail-oriented leisure activities.
This OpenRailwayMap shows the railway lines to the West and North of Newcastle.
Note.
- The orange line on the East side of the map is the East Coast Main Line between Newcastle and Edinburgh via Morpeth.
- The yellow line to the East of the East Coast Main Line, is the Northumberland Line between Newcastle and Ashington.
- The green line is the Tyne and Wear Metro
- The orange line going along the bottom edge of the map is the Tyne Valley Line between Newcastle and Carlisle via Corbridge and Hexham.
- All the lines meet at Newcastle station.
- Woodburn station is indicated by the arrow on disused lines that connect Morpeth on the East Coast Main Line with the Tyne Valley Line.
Reopening the lines to Woodburn would create a new railway, that would encircle Newcastle and surely create lots of housing, business and leisure opportunities.
But let’s get Phase One finished first and see how passenger numbers develop.
50% Increase For Northumberland Passengers Heading To London
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Rail Advent.
These two paragraphs introduce the article.
In the last two years, the number of customers travelling by Lumo‘s train services between Morpeth and London has increased by 50%.
According to Lumo, the increased demand for its services is due to leisure and business customers looking to travel more sustainably and the area’s tourism opportunities.
I don’t feel that the fifty percent increase is unexpected, as LNER now run seven trains per day (tpd) in both directions between Morpeth and London and Lumo now run five.
- Not all passengers travel between North of Morpeth and London.
- If you live in the Borderlands, you may find Morpeth a better alternative than driving to Edinburgh or Newcastle.
- Morpeth station has only 72 car parking spaces.
- Local buses and taxis may play a part.
- Car hire is available at Newcastle and Morpeth.
- Low fares will certainly play a part.
It will start to get interesting, when services start to run between Newcastle and Morpeth via the Northumberland Line.
Could The New Northumberland Line Be Used As A Diversion For The East Coast Main Line?
This question was asked by a friend, so I thought I’d investigate.
This OpenRailwayMap shows the Southern end of the Northumberland Line.
Note.
- Tracks in red are the 25 KVAC overhead electrified East Coast Main Line.
- Tracks in blue are the 1.5 kV overhead electrified Tyne and Wear Metro.
- The track in black running alongside the Metro and then turning North is the Northumberland Line.
- The Northumberland Line is mainly double track, with some single-track sections.
- The blue arrow indicates Northumberland Park station.
At Benton Junction junction in the South-West corner of the map, trains can be handled in the following directions.
- Trains going North on the East Coast Main Line can go North on the Northumberland Line.
- Trains going South on the Northumberland Line can go South on the East Coast Main Line.
Currently, only the occasional freight train uses the junction.
When the Northumberland Line opens, there will be two trains per hour (tph) in each direction.
This second OpenRailwayMap shows the Northern end of the Northumberland Line.
Note.
- Tracks in red are the 25 KVAC overhead electrified East Coast Main Line.
- The blue arrow indicates the Ashington station, which will be the Northern terminus of Northumberland Line services.
- The Northumberland Line runs down the Eastern side of the map.
- The village of Bedlington, which will have a station on the Northumberland Line is in the South-East corner of the map.
- A second track connects Bedlington on the Northumberland Line to the East Coast Main Line, where trains can go North or South.
It does appear that because of the track layout at both ends of the Northumberland Line, the following is possible.
A train going in either direction on the East Coast Main Line can use the Northumberland Line as a diversion.
Passenger services between Newcastle and Morpeth could use the Northumberland Line.
Passenger services between Newcastle and North of Morpeth could use the Northumberland Line.
Note.
- Although High Speed Two through Newcastle is probably dead, there is still a need to increase capacity through the area.
- I suspect diversions could be useful, when there were problems between Newcastle and Morpeth.
- Could the Northumberland Line be used for freight trains to increase capacity through Newcastle?
- We shouldn’t ignored the possibilities offered by a reopened Leamside Line.
But I suspect that as housing and other developments get proposed in Northumberland, that more passenger services will be developed.
Conclusion
The Northumberland Line will have limited use for diversions, but could general other services.
The Anonymous Widower 