Scotland’s Renewable Energy Jackpot: Hydrogen Exports Alone Could Be worth £25 Billion A Year By 2045
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the Edinburgh News.
This is the sub-heading.
Scotland is a phenomenally energy rich country. For decades the largest oil-producing nation in the European Union, it is now set to trail-blaze as a leader in renewable energy.
The title and sub-heading say it all for Scotland.
But these words could equally well apply to Anglesey, Cornwall, Devon, East Anglia, Humberside, Liverpool and Morecambe Bays, the Severn Estuary and Pembrokeshire.
We also mustn’t forget the Dogger Bank!
High Risk Of Coeliac Disease In Punjabis. Epidemiological Study In The South Asian And European Populations Of Leicestershire
The title of this post, is the same as that of this peer-reviewed paper on PubMed.gov.
This is the abstract of the paper.
The purpose of this study was to measure the incidence of coeliac disease in different ethnic communities and investigate the hypothesis that the incidence is decreasing in most European countries and the role incomplete retrieval of data may play. In a retrospective study of histologically confirmed cases of coeliac disease between 1975 and 1989 in the City of Leicester, 106 patients with coeliac disease were identified. Of these 86 were European and 20 Asian. The overall incidence of coeliac disease in Europeans was 2.5/10(5)/year (95% CI 2-3.2), in Gujaratis 0.9/10(5)/year (95% CI 0.4-1.8), and in Punjabis 6.9 (95% CI 3.2-12.3). These differences were independent of religious belief. The relative risk to Punjabis compared with Europeans is 2.9 (95% CI 1.5-5.3; chi 2 = 12.5, p < 0.01) and to Gujaratis 8.1 (95% CI 3-22.4; chi 2 = 25; p < 0.001). Gujaratis were at 0.4 risk of Europeans (90% CI 0.2-0.8; chi 2 = 6.7; p < 0.01). The incidence in the urban populations of Leicester was 6/10(5)/year (95% CI 1.3-1.9) which was significantly lower than the 3.2/10(5)/year (95% CI 2.7-3.8; chi 2 = 5.6; p < 0.001) in surrounding rural areas. This study shows that the incidence of coeliac disease in Punjabis (Sikhs, Hindus and Muslims) is 8 times higher than in Gujaratis (Hindus and Muslims) and 4 times higher than in Europeans in Leicester.
I find the last sentence in particular very significant.
I’m no medic, but I think it is reasonable to assume, that in a particular community for every diagnosed coeliac, there will be several undiagnosed coeliacs out there.
In this overview of coeliac disease on the NHS web site, this is said about the incidence of coeliac disease.
Coeliac disease is a condition that affects at least 1 in every 100 people in the UK.
But some experts think this may be underestimated because milder cases may go undiagnosed or be misdiagnosed as other digestive conditions, such as irritable bowel syndrome (IBS).
Reported cases of coeliac disease are around 3 times higher in women than men.
The one-in-100 figure is often used in web pages in European countries or Australia, Canada and the United States, so I’ll go along with that.
So does that mean that Punjabis living in Leicester, have a one-in-twenty-five likelihood of being coeliac?
Whether you have been diagnosed though, is a matter of pure luck.
I had been having gut problems for years and then one Autumn, I didn’t see my GP, but a very elderly locum, who as I had recently had my fiftieth birthday, gave me a present of my first blood test.
It turned out my B12 levels were very low and after several months of B12 injections, which made little difference to my B12, my GP decided to send me to a consultant at Addenbrooke’s Hospital in Cambridge.
My appointment was on a Monday morning and consultant took about ten minutes to ask a few questions, after which he said they would take a few bloods.
On the Wednesday morning, I received a letter that said, that I was probably suffering from coeliac disease and this would be confirmed by endoscopy.
Was I diagnosed solely by analysis of my blood? This was in 1997, which is after the date of the Leicester study.
Two endoscopies without sedative or anaesthetic were performed and I was confirmed as coeliac.
The first was performed by Dr. Richard Hardwick and the second by Dr. Rebecca Fitzgerald.
Both doctors feature in this story on the Cambridge University Hospitals web site, which is entitled Familial Gastric Cancer – Case Study.
My problems have been minor compared to the two sisters in the story.
My luck had been good and I recommend that everyone who feels they could be coeliac should get themselves tested.
Cases Of Covid-19 In Leicestershire
This article on the Leicester Mercury is entitled 11 Areas Of Leicestershire Have Among Worst Infection Rates in the UK.
In Coeliac Disease: Can We Avert The Impending Epidemic In India?, I started like this.
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the Indian Journal Of Research Medicine.
With the high levels of COVID-19 in Leicester and an Indian population who make up 28.3 % of the population of the city, I was searching the internet to see if there was any connection between those of Indian heritage and coeliac disease.
I know you should not try to prove a theory. But as a coeliac, I’m very interested to see how the millions of diagnosed coeliacs on a gluten-free diet like me, are faring in this pandemic.
I then talk about some extracts from the Indian research.
In a section entitled, which is entitled All Wheats Are Not Equal, I say this.
The other dimension to this problem is that not all wheat is alike when it comes to inducing celiac disease. The ancient or diploid wheats (e.g. Triticum monococcum) are poorly antigenic, while the modern hexaploid wheats e.g. Triticum aestivum) have highly antigenic glutens, more capable of inducing celiac disease in India, for centuries, grew diploid and later tetraploid wheat which is less antigenic, while hexaploid wheat used in making bread is recently introduced. Thus a change back to older varieties of wheat may have public health consequences.
So did all these factors come together to create the high levels of Covid-19 in Leicestershire?
Conclusion
I am getting bored with saying this. More research needs to be done!
A Walk From London City Airport Through Silvertown To The Elizabeth Line
I went for a walk from London City Airport, this morning.
This Google Map shows the area between London City Airport and the Elizabeth Line.
Note.
- The airport is just off the map at the top.
- A plane is partially visible in the middle.
- The Docklands Light Railway runs across the map from the top-left corner, through the station for the airport.
- The Elizabeth Line runs across the map from the middle of the left hand side.
- The blue dots alongside the Elizabeth Line are bus stops.
- The bus stop, that is shown in the third picture, is marked by the rightmost blue dot.
- I estimate it’s about a three-hundred metre walk between Railway and the airport.
This second map shows the footbridge over the Elizabeth Line from where I took some of the pictures.
Note.
- The bridge has been designed to have lifts added.
- Squeezing a station in here, appears to be just about possible, but it would need a precision design.
- For safety reasons platform-edge doors would be needed.
- I suspect, it would be the first station of its design ever built.
The biggest problem would be the actual building, as it would probably mean closing the railway for at least a few weeks.
Conclusion
This was a station, that should have been built in the first phase of the creation of the Elizabeth Line.
Why A Lucky Few May Help The Rest Of Us Beat Disease
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article in The Times.
This is the sub-title.
A British biotech firm believes patients who defy odds could hold the key in their blood.
These three paragraphs introduce the article.
Patient 82 should be dead. At the age of 63 he was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. In most cases, he would not have lasted a year. But seven years on, patient 82 is alive. Not merely alive — thriving.
He enjoys gardening. He likes seeing his grandchildren. He enjoys life.
How? The answer, a British biotech company believes, could lie in his blood. Now, with the help of dozens of other anonymous patients, all of whom have defied their cancer prognoses, they hope to find it.
Note, that the company is Alchemab Therapeutics.
The article got me thinking about myself.
I belong to a group of people, who are twenty-five percent less likely to suffer from cancer according to peer-reviewed research at Nottingham University.
I am coeliac and adhere to a strict gluten-free diet.
There may be other benefits too!
I have not had a serious dose of the covids, although I may have had a very mild case at the beginning of 2020 after I shared a train with a large number of exuberant Chinese students, who had recently arrived at Manchester Airport and were going to their new University across the Pennines.
I have also since found at least another seventy coeliacs, who have avoided serious doses of the covids.
Research From The University Of Padua
This paper on the US National Library of Medicine, which is from the University of Padua in Italy.
The University followed a group of 138 patients with coeliac disease, who had been on a gluten-free diet for at least six years, through the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in Padua.
This sentence, sums up the study.
In this analysis we report a real life “snapshot” of a cohort of CeD patients during the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Italy, all followed in one tertiary centre in a red area of Northern Italy. Our data show, in accordance with Emmi et al., the absolute absence of COVID-19 diagnosis in our population, although 18 subjects experienced flu-like symptoms with only one having undergone naso-pharyngeal swab.
It says that no test subject caught Covid-19, in an admittedly smallish number of patients.
But it reinforces my call for more research into whether if you are a diagnosed coeliac on a long-term gluten-free diet, you have an immune system, that gives you a degree of protection from the Covids.
The Times article mentions the immune system.
I believe my immune system to be strong after the reaction I had to the Astra Zeneca vaccine. I didn’t feel well to say the least after my Astra Zeneca vaccine and my GP and other doctors felt that it could be due to my immune system, thinking that the chimpanzee virus-based vaccine was a danger and attacking it.
Significantly, I had no reaction to the second dose. So had my immune system recognised the vaccine as a friend not a foe?
My son, who my late wife was sure was an undiagnosed coeliac, died of pancreatic cancer at just 37.
How did my late wife know? Don’t question her intuition and also she felt that my son and myself felt the same to her touch.
It should be noted that my son’s daughter was born with a Congenital hernia of the Diaphragm. Congenital defects can happen to people, who have a coeliac father.
At the age of 20, my granddaughter is fine now, after heroic surgery at the Royal London Hospital, at just a few days old.
Second Life Energy Storage Firm Smartville Inc On Modules vs Packs, Ramp-Up Plans And Tesla’s Approach
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Energy Storage News.
I like the concept of taking the life-expired batteries out of electric vehicles and giving them a second life as grid batteries.
Smartville seem to have taken this simple and useful idea to a new level.
These are my thoughts.
The Internet Of Batteries
By the use of clever software, it appears, that they can control different types of battery packs, in a manner that could be called the Internet of Batteries.
They can also measure the state and performance and calculate the replacement date of each battery pack.
The Mother Of All Batteries
The implementation of this concept in their MOAB product allows the controlling software to manage a number of battery packs precisely to deliver a battery of the precise number of MWh, that the customer ordered.
- Provided an interface driver can be written, any type and make of battery pack can be incorporated.
- Nearly new, salvaged or elderly battery packs cab be used.
- The operating system can predict, when a battery pack must be replaced.
- Smartville are planning to install a 4MWh grid battery in central California that will be co-located with an existing power plant.
In some ways, the controlling software, is like the Chief Coach of a tug-of-war team, of mixed sexes, weights and strengths, that by asking for the right level of power from each member, gets the required performance.
Working With Tesla
The article talks about why, they don’t work with Tesla, where this is said.
Our experience in the US is that Tesla does not seem to be interested in working with outside partners. They’ve also publicly stated that they’re not focused on battery repurposing, not in their current business model at least, which I think might change over time. But that’s their public stance at the moment. We’re absolutely open to working directly with them but the opportunity hasn’t presented itself.
Does this indicate, that Tesla and Elon Musk are not the easiest people to deal with?
Conclusion
I shall be following Smartville.
Could Greater Anglia Run A Comprehensive Service For East Anglia?
Consider.
- In the last fifty years, there have been direct trains between London Liverpool Street and Lowestoft stations.
- In the last forty years, there have been direct trains between London Liverpool Street and Peterborough stations.
- Greater Anglia currently run an hourly train between London Liverpool Street and Ipswich stations, with stops at Stratford, Shenfield, Chelmsford, Hatfield Peverel, Witham, Kelvedon, Marks Tey, Colchester and Manningtree
- Frequencies on both routes were not high and less than four trains per day (tpd), but they must have been a demand for these services.
- Greater Anglia promised to run a Lowestoft service, when they successfully reapplied for the franchise.
- Greater Anglia have 38 Class 755 trains, of which 14 are three-cars and 24 are four-cars.
- Class 755 trains can run in twoses and possibly threeses. (Suffolk dialect for twins and triplets!)
Could these elements be assembled to provide a comprehensive East Anglia service?
- A pair of Class 755 trains would leave Liverpool Street for Ipswich.
- They would takeover some of the paths of the hourly Liverpool Street and Ipswich service and run possibly about four or five tpd, according to demand.
- Between Liverpool Street and Ipswich the trains could stop at Stratford, Shenfield, Chelmsford, Hatfield Peverel, Witham, Kelvedon, Marks Tey, Colchester and Manningtree
- The services would splitgoing North and join going South at Ipswich
- One train would go to Peterborough with stops at Needham Market, Stowmarket, Elmswell, Thurston, Bury St. Edmunds, Soham, Ely, Manea, March and Whittlesea.
- The other would go to Lowestoft with stops at Woodbridge, Melton, Wickham Market, Saxmundham, Darsham, Halesworth, Brampton, Beccles and Oulton Broad South.
Note.
- The Class 755 trains would use electricity, where electrification exists.
- They would use diesel on lines without electrification.
- They would be able to hold 100 mph, so wouldn’t delay other trains.
- Seventeen towns would get new direct services to and from London.
- A Class 745 train is 236.6 metres long, whereas a pair of four-car Class 755 trains is only 161.4 metres.
- A three-train formation of Class 755 trains is only 5.5 metres longer than a single Class 745 train.
I am fairly sure no new substantial infrastructure would be required.
I have some further thoughts.
Example Timings
These timings to and from London are based on current timings of the Class 745 and 755 trains.
- Ipswich – 60 mins
- Stowmarket -70 mins
- Bury St. Edmunds – 88 mins
- Soham – 108 mins
- Ely – 117 mins
- March – 136 mins
- Peterborough – 158 mins
- Woodbridge – 75 mins
- Melton – 80 mins
- Wickham Market – 86 mins
- Saxmundham – 97 mins
- Darsham – 104 mins
- Halesworth – 113 mins
- Brampton – 119 mins
- Beccles – 128 mins
- Oulton Broad South – 138 mins
- Lowestoft – 146 mins
Notes.
- Times to and from Ipswich are based on typical services at the current time.
- I have assumed that there are no stops South of Ipswich.
- Saxmundham is the closest station to Sizewell and could be important in bringing in construction workers for Sizewell C.
I think some of the times like those to and from Bury St. Edmunds, Ipswich, Lowestoft, Saxmundham and Woodbridge could create popular routes.
Battery-Electric Trains
Consider.
- I wrote about Stadler’s expertise with battery-electric trains in Stadler FLIRT Akku Battery Train Demonstrates 185km Range.
- 185 km. is 115 miles.
- The Class 756 trains for Transport for Wales are similar trains to the Class 755 trains fitted with batteries.
- In Battery Power Lined Up For ‘755s’, I wrote about plans to put batteries in the Class 755 trains.
These sections of lines are not electrified on the routes I have talked about.
- Haughley Junction and Ely – 38 miles
- Ely and Peterborough – 30.5 miles
- Westerfield and Lowestoft – 38 miles
As there is electrification at Ely, Haughley, Peterborough and Westerfield and South to London, I am fairly certain the route could be run by battery-electric trains.
Electrification To Sizewell C
In the January 2023 Edition of Modern Railways, there is an article, which is entitled Rail Set To Support Sizewell C Construction.
It details how sidings will be built to support the construction, with up to four trains per day (tpd), but the electrification word is not mentioned.
This is surprising to me, as increasingly, big construction projects are being managed to emit as small an amount of carbon as possible. High Speed Two is being built this way and I suspect Rolls-Royce’s SMR design will minimise carbon emissions during manufacture and construction. It will be very surprising if Sizewell C doesn’t follow High Speed Two’s example. After all, it may be an isolated site, but in Sizewell B, it’s got one of the UK’s biggest carbon-free electricity generators a couple of hundred metres away.
The writer of the Modern Railways article, thinks an opportunity is being missed.
I feel the following should be done.
- Improve and electrify the East Suffolk Line between Ipswich and Saxmundham Junction.
- Electrify the Aldeburgh Branch Line and the sidings to support the construction or agree to use battery-electric or hydrogen zero-carbon locomotives.
One of the collateral benefits of electrifying from Ipswich to Saxmundham Junction, is that it will make it easier for battery-electric Class 755 trains to work Ipswich and Lowestoft services.
- If the trains were to leave Saxmundham Junction going North with a full battery, they should be able to travel to Lowestoft and return.
- Battery-electric Class 755 trains could bring in workers from Ipswich or Lowestoft and further afield.
- It could even leave behind a zero-carbon branch line to Sizewell, Leiston and Aldeburgh, with two tph to Ipswich.
Sizewell C could be a superb demonstration project for low-carbon construction!
The Lowestoft-Great Yarmouth Conurbation
The Wikipedia entry for Lowestoft says this about the town.
The estimated population in the built-up area exceeds 70,000. Its development grew with the fishing industry and as a seaside resort with wide sandy beaches. As fishing declined, oil and gas exploitation in the North Sea in the 1960s took over. While these too have declined, Lowestoft is becoming a regional centre of the renewable energy industry.
Whilst the Wikipedia entry for Great Yarmouth says this about the town.
Great Yarmouth, often called Yarmouth, is a seaside town and unparished area in, and the main administrative centre of, the Borough of Great Yarmouth in Norfolk, England; it straddles the River Yare and is located 20 miles (30 km) east of Norwich. A population of 38,693 in the 2011 Census made it Norfolk’s third most populous. Its fishing industry, mainly for herring, shrank after the mid-20th century and has all but ended.[3] North Sea oil from the 1960s supplied an oil-rig industry that services offshore natural gas rigs; more recently, offshore wind power and other renewable energy industries have ensued.
Wikipedia also said this about the population of the wider Great Yarmouth.
The wider Great Yarmouth borough had a population of around 92,500, which increased to 97,277 at the 2011 census.
Taken together they are one of the largest conurbations in East Anglia.
The main means of transport between the two towns is by road.
Surely, two towns of over 70,000 people, who are only a few miles apart need a rail connection.
Onward From Lowestoft To Great Yarmouth
If the comprehensive East Anglia service, I’m discussing is to be truly comprehensive, it must serve the Norfolk Broads and Great Yarmouth.
This would also improve the connectivity between two of the largest coastal towns in East Anglia, that I indicated in the last section.
This OpenRailwayMap shows a cunning plan proposed by Network Rail to connect Lowestoft and Great Yarmouth.
Note.
- Great Yarmouth is in the North East corner of the map.
- Two lines lead West from Great Yarmouth station, with the more Northerly route going direct to Norwich and the more Southerly one going to Norwich via Berney Arms and Reedham.
- Lowestoft is in the South East corner of the map.
- Two lines lead West from Lowestoft station, with the Northern route going to Norwich via Reedham and the Southern one going to Ipswich via Oulton Broad South.
- The route of a coastal railway connecting the two towns is also shown.
Network Rail’s cunning plan is indicated on this second nap from OpenRailwayMap.
Note.
- Reedham station is in the North-West corner of the map on the line to Norwich.
- To the East of the station is a triangular junction.
- The track from the North-East corner of the junction is the line to Great Yarmouth.
- The track from the Southern corner of the junction is the line to Lowestoft.
- Unfortunately, the South-Eastern leg of the junction was removed in 1880.
In Norfolk Rail Line To Remain Closed As £68m Upgrade Project Overruns, I said this.
Network Rail are talking about reinstating the Reedham Chord to create a more direct route between East Anglia’s largest North-Eastern towns. This is said about the Reedham Chord in Direct Yarmouth Services in the Wikipedia entry for Lowestoft station.
In January 2015, a Network Rail study proposed the reintroduction of direct services between Lowestoft and Yarmouth by reinstating a spur at Reedham. Services could once again travel between two East Coast towns, with an estimated journey time of 33 minutes, via a reconstructed 34-chain (680 m) north-to-south arm of the former triangular junction at Reedham, which had been removed in c. 1880. The plans also involve relocating Reedham station nearer the junction, an idea which attracted criticism.
This sounds a good plan to me.
- It would allow direct services between Lowestoft and Great Yarmouth.
- It would allow direct services between Ipswich and Great Yarmouth with a reverse at Lowestoft in about two hours.
- With possible charging at Lowestoft and/or Great Yarmouth, a scenic route could be created between Ipswich and Norwich for battery-electric Class 755 trains. If that doesn’t get people out of their cars then nothing will!
- Various leisure, tourism and work-related opportunities would be created.
Never in the field of railway engineering would such a small chord have given so much.
Sizewell C Issues
Sizewell C will be a massive project and I also suspect that like High Speed Two, it will be built in a manner that will be zero-carbon where possible.
We already know from the Modern Railways article, that four tpd will shuttle material to a number of sidings close to the site. This is a good start.
Since Sizewell A opened, trains have regularly served the Sizewell site to bring in and take out nuclear material. These occasional trains go via Ipswich and in the last couple of years have generally been hauled by Class 88 electro-diesel locomotives.
It would be reasonable to assume that the Sizewell C sidings will be served in the same manner.
But the route between Westerfield Junction and Ipswich station is becoming increasingly busy with the following services.
- Greater Anglia’s London and Norwich services
- Greater Anglia’s Ipswich and Cambridge services
- Greater Anglia’s Ipswich and Felixstowe services
- Greater Anglia’s Ipswich and Lowestoft services
- Greater Anglia’s Ipswich and Peterborough services
- Freight services serving the Port of Felixstowe, which are expected to increase significantly in forthcoming years.
But the Modern Railways article says this about Saxmundham junction.
Saxmundham junction, where the branch meets the main line, will be relaid on a slightly revised alignment, retaining the existing layout but with full signalling giving three routes from the junction protecting signal on the Down East Suffolk line and two in the Down direction on the bidirectional Up East Suffolk line. Trap points will be installed on the branch to protect the main line, with the exit signal having routes to both running lines.
Does the comprehensive signalling mean that a freight train can enter or leave the Sizewell sidings to or from either the busy Ipswich or the quieter Lowestoft direction in a very safe manner?
I’m no expert on signalling, but I think it does.
- A train coming from the Lowestoft direction needing to enter the sidings would go past Saxmundham junction on the Up line. Once clear of the junction, it would stop and reverse into the branch.
- A train coming from the Ipswich direction needing to enter the sidings would approach in the wrong direction on the Up line and go straight into the branch.
- A train leaving the sidings in the Lowestoft direction would exit from the branch and take the Up line until it became single track. The train would then stop and reverse on to the Down line and take this all the way to Lowestoft.
- A train leaving the sidings in the Ipswich direction would exit from the branch and take the Up line all the way to Ipswich.
There would need to be ability to move the locomotive from one end to the other inside the Sizewell site or perhaps these trains could be run with a locomotive on both ends.
The advantage of being able to run freight trains between Sizewell and Lowestoft becomes obvious, when you look at this Google Map, which shows the Port of Lowestoft.
Note.
- The Inner Harbour of the Port of Lowestoft.
- The East Suffolk Line running East-West to the North of the Inner Harbour.
- Lowestoft station at the East side of the map.
I doubt it would be the most difficult or expensive of projects to build a small freight terminal on the North side of the Inner Harbour.
I suspect that the easiest way to bring the material needed to build the power station to Sizewell would be to do the following.
- Deliver it to the Port of Lowestoft by ship.
- Tranship to a suitable shuttle train for the journey to the Sizewell sidings.
- I estimate that the distance is only about 25 miles and a battery or hydrogen locomotive will surely be available in the UK in the next few years, that will be able to provide the motive power for the return journey.
In The TruckTrain, I wrote about a revolutionary freight concept, that could be ideal for the Sizewell freight shuttle.
Great Yarmouth Racecourse
Great Yarmouth Racecourse is one of my favourite racecourses and I believe it is one of the attractions in Great Yarmouth, that would benefit from an improved rail service between Lowestoft and Great Yarmouth, as it would almost double those with efficient public transport access to the racecourse.
The walking distance between Great Yarmouth station and the racecourse is walkable for many and I remember doing it since C died.
With the train connection to Lowestoft and perhaps a courtesy bus from the station, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that a Lowestoft-Yarmouth rail connection being very good for the racecourse. Especially as road traffic between the two towns can be not the best.
Finishing At Norwich
There are operational reasons to carry on to Norwich, where Crown Point, is the home base for the Class 755 trains.
But it would also link a lot of places that are dependant on tourism and are also heavily involved in East Anglia’s energy industry.
Onward From Peterborough To Lincoln
If the Lowestoft service can extend to Great Yarmouth, an extension of the Peterborough service to Lincoln via Spalding and Sleaford might be possible.
But with LNER also serving Lincoln from Kings Cross, I doubt the route would carry many passengers to and from London.
Conclusion
A service from London, that splits into two trains at Ipswich for Lowestoft and Peterborough has possibilities.
The Anonymous Widower 