America’s Looming Electricity Crisis Is Trump’s Achilles’ Heel
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article in the Telegraph.
This is the sub-heading.
Culture war banter and point-scoring have left Maga facing a self-inflicted energy shortage
These are the first three paragraphs.
The US is in danger of losing the global AI race for the most banal and careless of reasons: it is critically short of electricity.
The country is sitting on a neglected pre-modern grid that cannot meet surging power demand for data centres, cryptocurrencies, the reshoring of semiconductor plants and the proclaimed revival of the American industrial base.
Nor can it meet the needs for air conditioning through hotter and more humid summers. While we all talk about AI, the chief cause of rising electricity use last year was for cooling. Bitcoin mining took another 2pc of US power, for no productive purpose.
It looks like we can add simple arithmetic to the skills the Trump Administration lacks.
The Telegraph article and myself have some other thoughts.
The Planned Increase In Electricity Is A Fifth Of What’s Needed
This is a paragraph from the Telegraph.
The US Energy Department said in its Resource Adequacy Report in July that the planned increase in firm electricity supply is a fifth of what is needed by 2030.
In Renewable Power By 2030 In The UK, I stated that by 2030, the UK would add nearly 59 GW of offshore wind.
Surely, using the population size difference of four times, 240 GW of offshore wind, would do the USA nicely?
But, Trump doesn’t like wind turbines.
Texas Has A Shortage Of Electricity
These are two paragraphs from the Telegraph.
The Texas grid operator Ercot expects peak power demand in its region to soar from 87 gigawatts (GW) this year to 138 GW by 2030. This is physically impossible.
Texas passed a law in June giving the state emergency authority to cut off power to data centres. Ercot is already having to deploy “mobile generation plants” at exorbitant cost to avert blackouts even today.
It sounds pretty desperate.
Texas needs another 51 GW by 2030, which is less than we intend to delivery from just offshore wind.
If Little Great Britain can do it, then surely Texas can? After all, Texas is three almost times larger than the UK.
I get the idea, that someone isn’t doing any planning.
The United States Needs A Lot Of Transformers
These are three paragraphs from the Telegraph.
The National Infrastructure Advisory Council (Niac) says the average age of America’s 60 million large power transformers is 38 years. Many are beyond their design life.
The US supply chain is not capable of delivering the 12 million new transformers needed each year to keep the show on the road. The backlog has risen to four years. The cost of transformers has jumped 80pc since the pandemic.
There is an acute shortage of electrical steel needed to make them. This comes mostly from China, Japan, Korea or Germany. In his infinite wisdom, Trump has imposed 50pc tariffs on steel, aluminium and copper. That cost shock has yet to feed through.
The Niac says it is a similar tale for “other critical grid components such as conduit, smart meters, switchgear and high-voltage circuit breakers”.
It looks like, there’s another fine mess, you’ve got us in, Donny!
Maga Wants More Coal
These are three paragraphs from the Telegraph.
The quickest way to generate more power is to roll out wind and solar. Trump is actively intervening to obstruct this. Maga wants coal instead.
This week the administration announced $625m of taxpayer subsidy to “expand and reinvigorate” the coal industry. It will open new federal lands, slash the royalty fees for extracting coal, and lift curbs on mercury pollution.
“In addition to drill, baby drill, we need to mine, baby, mine,” said Doug Burgum, the interior secretary.
When it should be spin, baby, spin.
Conclusion
Read the article in full.
We certainly, don’t want anybody, with an energy policy like Trump, influencing the UK’s energy policy.
If Trump carries on like this, he’ll end up in a terrible mess.
Ørsted In Talks To Sell Half Of Huge UK Wind Farm To Apollo
The title of this post, is the same as that as this article in The Times.
This is the sub-heading.
The US investment giant is eyeing a 50 per cent stake in the Danish energy company’s £8.5 billion Hornsea 3 project off the Yorkshire coast
These are the first three paragraphs, which add more detail.
An American investment giant is negotiating a deal to buy half of what will be the world’s largest off-shore wind farm off the coast of Yorkshire from the troubled Danish energy company Ørsted.
New York-based Apollo, which oversees assets of about $840 billion, is in talks with Ørsted about acquiring a 50 per cent stake in Hornsea 3, an £8.5 billion project that started construction in 2023 and will be capable of powering more than three million UK homes.
A transaction would be a boost for Orsted, which has come under pressure in recent months from rising costs and a backlash against renewables in the United States by President Trump. Orsted started the process of selling a stake in Hornsea 3 in 2024 and said last month that it had an unnamed preferred bidder for the asset, which the Financial Times first reported was Apollo.
I have written several times about Ørstedregularly building a large wind farm and then selling it, so they must be doing something right.
In World’s Largest Wind Farm Attracts Huge Backing From Insurance Giant, I wrote about how Aviva bought Hornsea 1 from Ørsted.
One of the guys at Aviva explained that these sort of investments gave the right sort of cash flow to fund insurance risks and pensions.
Now that Trump has attempted to give his kiss of death to wind power in the United States, will US funds be looking for quality investments like Hornsea 3 in the UK and other large wind farms in France, Germany, Norway, Japan and Korea?
Already, Blackrock are investing billions to build a massive data centre at Blyth, where there are Gigawatts of offshore wind power and an interconnector to Norway, so that UK and Norwegian wind can be backed up by UK nuclear and Norwegian hydropower.
Highview Power And Ørsted
I wrote Highview Power, Ørsted Find Value In Integrating Offshore Wind With Liquid Air Energy Storage in November 2023.
I would have thought, that by now a battery would have been announced in one of Ørsted’s many projects.
I asked Google AI if Highview Power and Ørsted were still talking about liquid air energy storage and received this reply.
Yes, Highview Power and Ørsted are still actively involved in Liquid Air Energy Storage (LAES), having completed a joint study in late 2023 on combining LAES with offshore wind to benefit the UK grid, and the findings were presented to the government for its long-duration energy storage (LDES) consultation. They believe LAES can reduce wind curtailment, increase energy productivity, and support grid resilience, with potential projects aligned with offshore wind farm timelines.
Perhap’s Ørsted are getting their finances aorted first?
Conclusion
The Times They Are A-Changing!
Offshore Construction Work Resumes On Revolution Wind After US Judge’s Ruling
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
A US judge in Washington has cleared the way for work to resume on the 704 MW Revolution Wind offshore wind farm after granting a temporary injunction that lifted the federal stop-work order imposed in August.
These two paragraphs add details to the post.
On 22 August, the US Department of the Interior’s (DOI) Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) issued a stop-work order halting all offshore construction activities on the 704 MW project, which is already 80 per cent completed, according to its developers, Ørsted and Skyborn Renewables.
A few days later, the joint venture challenged the stop-work order in the US District Court for the District of Columbia, while Connecticut and Rhode Island filed their own lawsuits against the decision on the same day.
I’ve written about this project before in ‘This Has Nothing To Do With National Security’ | Revolution Wind Halt Leaves Connecticut Leaders Demanding Answers
How Will The UK Power All These Proposed Data Centres?
On Wednesday, a cardiologist friend asked me if we have enough power to do Trump’s UK AI, so I felt this post might be a good idea.
Artificial Intelligence Gave This Answer
I first asked Google AI, the title of this post and received this reply.
The UK will power proposed data centres using a mix of grid-supplied low-carbon electricity from sources like offshore wind and through on-site renewable generation, such as rooftop solar panels. Data centre operators are also exploring behind-the-meter options, including battery storage and potential future nuclear power, to meet their significant and growing energy demands. However, the UK’s grid infrastructure and high energy prices present challenges, with industry calls for grid reform and inclusion in energy-intensive industry support schemes to facilitate sustainable growth.
Google also pointed me at the article on the BBC, which is entitled Data Centres To Be Expanded Across UK As Concerns Mount.
This is the sub-heading.
The number of data centres in the UK is set to increase by almost a fifth, according to figures shared with BBC News.
These are the first three paragraphs.
Data centres are giant warehouses full of powerful computers used to run digital services from movie streaming to online banking – there are currently an estimated 477 of them in the UK.
Construction researchers Barbour ABI have analysed planning documents and say that number is set to jump by almost 100, as the growth in artificial intelligence (AI) increases the need for processing power.
The majority are due to be built in the next five years. However, there are concerns about the huge amount of energy and water the new data centres will consume.
Where Are The Data Centres To Be Built?
The BBC article gives this summary of the locations.
More than half of the new data centres would be in London and neighbouring counties.
Many are privately funded by US tech giants such as Google and Microsoft and major investment firms.
A further nine are planned in Wales, one in Scotland, five in Greater Manchester and a handful in other parts of the UK, the data shows.
While the new data centres are mostly due for completion by 2030, the biggest single one planned would come later – a £10bn AI data centre in Blyth, near Newcastle, for the American private investment and wealth management company Blackstone Group.
It would involve building 10 giant buildings covering 540,000 square metres – the size of several large shopping centres – on the site of the former Blyth Power Station.
Work is set to begin in 2031 and last for more than three years.
Microsoft is planning four new data centres in the UK at a total cost of £330m, with an estimated completion between 2027 and 2029 – two in the Leeds area, one near Newport in Wales, and a five-storey site in Acton, north-west London.
And Google is building a data centre in Hertfordshire, an investment worth £740m, which it says will use air to cool its servers rather than water.
There is a map of the UK, with dots showing data centres everywhere.
One will certainly be coming to a suitable space near you.
Concerns Over Energy Needs
These three paragraphs from the BBC article, talk about the concerns about energy needs.
According to the National Energy System Operator, NESO, the projected growth of data centres in Great Britain could “add up to 71 TWh of electricity demand” in the next 25 years, which it says redoubles the need for clean power – such as offshore wind.
Bruce Owen, regional president of data centre operator Equinix, said the UK’s high energy costs, as well as concerns around lengthy planning processes, were prompting some operators to consider building elsewhere.
“If I want to build a new data centre here within the UK, we’re talking five to seven years before I even have planning permission or access to power in order to do that,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
But in Renewable Power By 2030 In The UK, I calculated that by 2030 we will add these yearly additions of offshore wind power.
- 2025 – 1,235 MW
- 2026 – 4,807 MW
- 2027 – 5,350 MW
- 2028 – 4,998 MW
- 2029 – 9,631 MW
- 2030 – 15,263 MW
Note.
- I have used pessimistic dates.
- There are likely to be more announcements of offshore wind power in the sea around the UK, in the coming months.
- As an example in Cerulean Winds Submits 1 GW Aspen Offshore Wind Project In Scotland (UK), I talk about 3 GW of offshore wind, that is not included in my yearly totals.
- The yearly totals add up to a total of 58,897 MW.
For solar power, I just asked Google AI and received this answer.
The UK government aims to have between 45 and 47 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacity by 2030. This goal is set out in the Solar Roadmap and aims to reduce energy bills and support the UK’s clean power objectives. The roadmap includes measures like installing solar on new homes and buildings, exploring solar carports, and improving access to rooftop solar for renters.
Let’s assume that we only achieve the lowest value of 45 GW.
But that will still give us at least 100 GW of renewable zero-carbon power.
What will happen if the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine?
I have also written about nuclear developments, that were announced during Trump’s visit.
- Centrica And X-energy Agree To Deploy UK’s First Advanced Modular Reactors
- Is Last Energy The Artemis Of Energy?
- National Grid And Emerald AI Announce Strategic Partnership To Demonstrate AI Power Flexibility In The UK
- Nuclear Plan For Decommissioned Coal Power Station
- Raft Of US-UK Nuclear Deals Ahead Of Trump Visit
- Rolls-Royce Welcomes Action From UK And US Governments To Usher In New ‘Golden Age’ Of Nuclear Energy
This is an impressive array of nuclear power, that should be able to fill in most of the weather-induced gaps.
In Renewable Power By 2030 In The UK, I also summarise energy storage.
For pumped storage hydro, I asked Google AI and received this answer.
The UK’s pumped storage hydro (PSH) capacity is projected to more than double by 2030, with six projects in Scotland, including Coire Glas and Cruachan 2, potentially increasing capacity to around 7.7 GW from the current approximately 3 GW. This would be a significant step towards meeting the National Grid’s required 13 GW of new energy storage by 2030, though achieving this depends on policy support and investment.
There will also be smaller lithium-ion batteries and long duration energy storage from companies like Highview Power.
But I believe there will be another source of energy that will ensure that the UK achieves energy security.
SSE’s Next Generation Power Stations
So far two of these power stations have been proposed.
Note.
- Both power stations are being designed so they can run on natural gas, 100 % hydrogen or a blend of natural gas and hydrogen.
- Keadby will share a site with three natural gas-powered power stations and be connected to the hydrogen storage at Aldbrough, so both fuels will be available.
- Ferrybridge will be the first gas/hydrogen power station on the Ferrybridge site and will have its own natural gas connection.
- How Ferrybridge will receive hydrogen has still to be decided.
- In Hydrogen Milestone: UK’s First Hydrogen-to-Power Trial At Brigg Energy Park, I describe how Centrica tested Brigg gas-fired power station on a hydrogen blend.
- The power stations will initially run on natural gas and then gradually switch over to lower carbon fuels, once delivery of the hydrogen has been solved for each site.
On Thursday, I went to see SSE’s consultation at Knottingley for the Ferrybridge power station, which I wrote about in Visiting The Consultation For Ferrybridge Next Generation Power Station At Knottingley.
In the related post, I proposed using special trains to deliver the hydrogen from where it is produced to where it is needed.
Could HiiROC Be Used At Ferrybridge?
Consider.
- HiiROC use a process called thermal plasma electrolysis to split any hydrocarbon gas into hydrogen and carbon black.
- Typical input gases are chemical plant off gas, biomethane and natural gas.
- Carbon black has uses in manufacturing and agriculture.
- HiiROC uses less energy than traditional electrolysis.
- There is an independent power source at Ferrybridge from burning waste, which could be used to ower a HiiROC system to generate the hydrogen.
It might be possible to not have a separate hydrogen feed and still get worthwhile carbon emission savings.
Conclusion
I believe we will have enough electricity to power all the data centres, that will be built in the next few years in the UK.
Some of the new power stations, that are proposed to be built, like some of the SMRs and SSE’s Next Generation power stations could even be co-located with data centres or other high energy users.
In Nuclear Plan For Decommissioned Coal Power Station, I describe how at the former site of Cottam coal-fired power station, it is proposed that two Holtec SMR-300 SMRs will be installed to power advanced data centres. If the locals are objecting to nuclear stations, I’m sure that an SSE Next Generation power station, that was burning clean hydrogen, would be more acceptable.
There Are Lies, Damned Lies And Trumpkopf’s Medical Statistics
With apologies to Benjamin Disraeli and/or Mark Twain
US Interior Secretary: ‘No Future For Offshore Wind Under This Administration’
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said at a press conference on 10 September that offshore wind has no future in the US under the Trump administration and that the government was reviewing five offshore wind projects that are now under construction.
There is also this quote from Burgum.
Offshore wind was too expensive and not reliable enough.
Many of those projects weren’t really about electricity, they were about tax subsidies
I think the fact that the subsidies have been either cut back or limited means that it is likely that there will not be future offshore wind built in America.
He also added that there were concerns that wind turbines interfered with whales and radar systems.
I asked Google AI a few questions.
Is Offshore Wind Extremely Expensive?
Google AI replied.
No, offshore wind is not considered extremely expensive when compared to other energy sources, particularly gas-fired power stations, and its costs are projected to fall further. While initially more expensive to construct than onshore wind due to the marine environment, the higher and more consistent wind speeds offshore generate more power, leading to a competitive or lower overall levelised cost of energy (LCOE) in many regions. Recent economic challenges like inflation and supply chain disruptions have increased costs temporarily, but the sector’s financial position is recovering, and cost reductions are expected to continue.
That looks pretty fair to me.
Is Offshore Wind Reliable?
Google AI replied.
Yes, offshore wind is a reliable energy source because it generates power more consistently than onshore wind due to higher, more dependable wind speeds at sea, and can be integrated with other renewables and energy storage to provide continuous power. Offshore wind turbines operate almost all the time, and the power can be backed up by grid-level storage to ensure a steady electricity supply, even when the wind isn’t blowing.
That looks pretty fair to me.
Are Subsididies And Tax Breaks Important For Offshore Wind?
Google AI replied.
Yes, subsidies and tax breaks are important for the offshore wind industry, which faces high upfront costs and inflationary pressures, to make it more cost-competitive with fossil fuels and secure financing for projects. These incentives help reduce costs for developers, de-risk investments, and ensure the technology can meet climate targets by fostering investment and ensuring long-term viability.
That looks pretty fair to me, but if you were in the oil and gas industry you might think differently.
On the other hand some countries like Norway and the UK, are encouraging the linking of offshore wind farms to offshore oil and gas production to decarbonise offshore operations.
Does Offshore Wind Kill Whales?
This article on the BBC is entitled Fact-Checking Donald Trump’s Claim That Wind Turbines Kill Whales.
It goes into detail about Trump’s claims about wind turbines and marine life.
These are four paragraphs.
“We know what the main threats are to humpback whales: it’s very much the impact from things like fishing and ship strikes,” says Rob Deaville from the Zoological Society of London’s Cetacean Strandings Investigation Programme.
“To talk about wind farms being a problem takes away discussion around the very real threats that are a problem for those species.”
Many other areas with high numbers of wind farms have not seen an increase in whale mortality.
For example, the UK is home to the world’s four largest wind farms, but no humpback whale strandings there have been conclusively linked to the impact of those farms.
That looks pretty fair to me.
But because of our massive portfolio of offshore wind farms and top universities, who research the marine environment, the UK is in a unique position to expose fake science, that was made up on the back of a used envelope.
Does Offshore Interfere With Radar?
Google AI replied.
Yes, offshore wind farms can interfere with radar by reflecting radar signals, causing “radar clutter” or false echoes that can obscure real targets, like aircraft or ships, or create phantom images on a radar display. This interference, also known as a “blade flash,” can negatively impact air defense, air traffic control, and maritime navigation, leading to reduced accuracy and potential safety risks.
That looks pretty fair to me.
Have Wind Turbines Caused Any Air Accidents?
Google AI replied.
Yes, wind farms have caused air accidents, though they are rare. These incidents primarily involve light aircraft colliding with wind turbines or experiencing loss of control due to turbulence from turbine wakes. Examples include a pilot crashing near a wind farm due to turbulence and another fatal crash involving an aircraft hitting a turbine blade.
That looks pretty fair to me.
I learned to fly light aircraft in the 1970s and I remember being told about wake turbulence from airliners, which has been strong enough in some cases to flip an aircraft like a Cessna 150 upside down or into a spin.
What Are The CAA’s Rules For Flying Near Wind Turbines?
Google AI replied.
The primary CAA rule for flying near wind turbines is related to their visibility and safety, focusing on lighting requirements and potential hazards like turbulence. Structures 150 meters or higher require medium-intensity red lights. Pilots must avoid dazzling lights with their own, and wind turbine developers must assess and mitigate risks such as turbulence, radar interference, and impact on Instrument Flight Procedures (IFPs).
That looks like what I would have expected.
Conclusion
I have tried not to be selective with my evidence, but if you are there are reasons that could be used to ban wind turbines.
I am also happy to add any other questions.
‘Targeted Attack’ | US DOI Plans To Revoke More Permits; White House Seeking To Engage Health And Human Services Department?
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
In a matter of months, the US offshore wind industry went from a growing investor and employer to an industry that is now undergoing what Oceantic Network called a “targeted attack” after reports emerged that the US Department of the Interior (DOI) plans to revoke federal permits for two more projects. The Trump administration has reportedly also asked multiple agencies, some of which are typically not involved in offshore energy permitting, to get involved in reviewing the impacts of offshore wind.
The whole article is very much a must-read.
The last two paragraphs are a quote from Sam Salustro, who is SVP Policy & Market Strategy at Oceantic Network.
“The Trump administration is singling out an American energy industry, undermining a 40-state, $25 billion domestic supply chain while holding American business investments hostage. This is from a political playbook that should make every industry worry whether they will be targeted by this administration or the next”
“We call on federal leaders to halt this targeted attack and restore certainty and predictability to our energy industry and the thousands ready to get back to work.”
Trump has no right to destroy an industry along with thousands of jobs, just because he doesn’t like it, when there is no commercial or environmental reason.
I will certainly not welcome Trump and his fellow travellers to the UK for his State Visit.
Rolls-Royce mtu Series 4000 engines To Power New Catalina Express Ferry In California
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from Rolls-Royce.
These two bullet points act as sub-headings.
High-capacity ferry to feature four EPA Tier 4-certified engines, delivering over 7463 kW (10,000 bhp)
Cutting-edge propulsion system will integrate SCR and DPF once certified by the EPA, USCG, and CARB to meet commercial harbour craft regulations
These three paragraphs from the press release, describe the ferry and its operation.
Rolls-Royce has been selected by Catalina Express of San Pedro, CA (USA) to supply the marine propulsion system for its new high-capacity ferry. The 500-passenger vessel, which will be the largest in the Catalina Express fleet upon completion, will be powered by four mtu 12V4000 M65L engines, delivering a combined output of over 7463 kW (10,000 bhp).
The new ferry is part of the Port of Los Angeles’ $31 million LA MER project, which is funded by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). Via the project, Catalina Express received a $15 million grant, matching it with $15 million of its own investment. The goal of the LA MER project is to test ways to reduce emissions as the Port works toward becoming a zero-emission port.
The new 42-meter ferry, which will be able to reach speeds up to 37 knots, will replace three older Catalina Express vessels maintaining capacity and increasing environmental performance. The vessel will serve as a next-generation leader of the fleet, showcasing the company’s commitment to sustainable operations.
The Wikipedia entry for Catalina Express has this first paragraph.
Catalina Express is an American passenger ferry service that operates scheduled trips between Santa Catalina Island and mainland California. The company began service in 1981 with a single sixty-passenger vessel. As of 2016, the Catalina Express fleet includes eight high-speed vessels that can make the roughly 30-mile (48 km) crossing in about an hour.
There appears to be strong commitment of the California Air Resources Board and Catalina Express to air quality and zero emissions.
In Liberty Lines Commissions First High-Speed Ferry With mtu Hybrid System From Rolls-Royce, I wrote about another high-speed ferry, that will be powered by a Rolls-Royce mtu hybrid system.
The European ferry will be able take 281 passengers at 34.5 mph, and also use battery-power in port.
I can see larger, faster and more advanced ferries being developed, with lower-emission power systems, that will take over some of the shorter sea routes.
US Transportation Dept Cancels Funding For 12 Offshore Wind Port Projects To ‘Invest In Real Infrastructure’
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
The US Department of Transportation (USDOT) has withdrawn or terminated funding for twelve offshore wind-related port projects, totalling USD 679 million (approximately EUR 580 million). These funds will be used, where possible, “to invest in real infrastructure, restoring American maritime dominance,” according to a press release issued by USDOT on 29 August.
The rest of the article is in two sections.
- US Wind-Backed Sparrows Point Steel Marshalling Port on the List
- ‘Prioritizing Real Infrastructure Improvements Over Fantasy Wind Projects’
Both sections are worth a detailed read.
They sound even more stupid decisions, if read in a voice reminiscent of Baldrick with an American accent.
‘This Has Nothing To Do With National Security’ | Revolution Wind Halt Leaves Connecticut Leaders Demanding Answers
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
Connecticut officials say they have been left in the dark about why the US federal government suddenly ordered construction of the Revolution Wind offshore project to stop, even as billions of US dollars, hundreds of jobs, and counted-on grid capacity hang in the balance.
This paragraph outlines what has happened.
On 25 August, the Connecticut State Government, joined by congressional leaders and representatives from the offshore wind supply chain, held a press conference at the New London State Pier after the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) issued a directive on 22 August halting all offshore activities on the almost-completed Revolution Wind, citing national security concerns and interference with US waters.
This may only appear to be about Trump stopping the erection of a wind farm in its tracks, but it is classic example of how to not do things.
He has left two states very angry, because of his prejudices.
The Anonymous Widower 