The map from carto metro shows the lines through the station.
Thorney Mill is an aggregates depot on the former Staines and West Drayton Railway. There is also an aviation fuel terminal for Heathrow Airport at Colnbrook, which is further to the South.
I do wonder, if the former Staines and West Drayton Railway can be repurposed to improve the operation of Heathrow Airport.
This lunchtime a friend was passing through Stansted Airport on the way to Glasgow. As we hadn’t seen each other for a couple of years, we had decided to have a coffee at the Airport.
The maximum speed if a Class 745 train is 100 mph.
The operating speed of the West Anglia Main Line is given on Wikipedia as 100 mph maximum.
The train was didn’t exceed 70 mph on the Stansted Branch.
Between Stansted Airport and Stansted Mountfitchet, the train accelerated to 70 mph and then braked at the right time to stop precisely in the following station.
At all times, I felt the train was running very easily. But then there are 125 mph members of the Flirt family running in Norway.
I can see these trains cutting the current 49 minutes between Liverpool Street and Stansted Airport.
Other times to London’s airports are as follows.
London Bridge – Gatwick – Thameslink – 48 minutes.
Victoria – Gatwick – Gatwick Express – 30 minutes.
Victoria – Gatwick – Southern – 32 minutes.
Paddington – Heathrow Central – Heathrow Express – 15 minutes
Paddington – Heathrow Central – Crossrail – 28 minutes
With the exception of Heathrow Express, the new Stansted Express doesn’t stand up too badly.
U.K.-based companies Drax Group and Velocys are among 11 organizations that have launched the Coalition for Negative Emissions, which aims to achieve a sustainable and resilient recovery from COVID-19 by developing pioneering projects that can remove carbon dioxide and other pollutants from the atmosphere.
This paragraph details the companies and organisations involved.
In addition to Drax and Velocys, members of the coalition include Carbon Engineering, Carbon Removal Centre, CBI, Carbon Capture and Storage Association, Climeworks, Energy U.K., Heathrow, International Airlines Group, and the U.K. National Farmers Union.
They have sent a letter to the Government, which can be downloaded from the Drax website.
Conclusion
I have an open mind about biomass and products such as aviation biofuel and techniques such as carbon capture.
Keeping the wheels of commerce turning, needs a sustainable way to fly and ideas such as producing aviation biofuel from household and industrial waste, could enable sustainable transport in the short term.
Carbon capture is very difficult in a lot of processes, but I feel that in some, such as a modern gas-turbine powered station, if they are designed in an innovative manner, they an be made to deliver a pure stream of the gas. A pure gas must be easier to handle, than one contaminated with all sorts of unknowns, as you might get from burning some sources of coal.
I am pleased that the National Farmers Union is involved as using pure carbon dioxide, as a growth promoter for greenhouse crops is a proven use for carbon dioxide.
Overall, I am optimistic about the formation of the Coalition for Negative Emissions.
My trains left from and returned to Platform 11 in Paddington station. But although perhaps eighty percent of Heathrow Terminal 5 services appear to use this platform, not all do!
At least something is at last going right for Crossrail!
But there are other factors at work, that will have effects on passenger flying.
Electric Aircraft
Despite the technological problems electric aircraft, I can see that in a couple of years, an electric plane will be available with the following specification.
9-15 passenger capacity
100-200 mile range
Half-hour recharge time
These will improve as technology improves. But then everybody who uses a battery in their product says this.
Lightweight Structures
If you’ve ever looked at a high-performance glider, you’ll see that they are the featherweights of the aviation world and are built mainly from ultra lightweight composites.
Boeing have gone this route with the 787 Dreamliner and the aircraft has been a success.
Unfortunately, Boeing’s accountants have trashed the company, by trying to prolong the life of the obsolete 737 too far, instead of developing a composite replacement.
By the end of this decade all aircraft will be made from lightweight composite structures.
Interstingly, the only all new electric passenger aircraft; the Eviation Alice has a fully-composite airframe.
Lightweight structures will help create lower carbon emissions on traditional aircraft, by reducing fuel burn, but will really help in creating new aircraft types. Some of which will look very unusual.
Better Aerodynamics
Aerodynamics are getting more efficient and this will reduce fuel burn and have two effects on aircraft design.
They will make existing designs more efficient.
They will improve the design of electric aircraft designed on a clean sheet of paper.
Expect to see some very weird looking aircraft. Look at Eviation Alice, which could evolve into a twenty seat aircraft with a range exceeding six hundred miles.
Hybrid-Powered Aircraft
I can’t with current technology, see an all-electric aircraft powered by batteries having a range greater than perhaps six hundred miles and a capacity of greater than perhaps 20 passengers. The mathematics and the physics say no!
Some aero engine manufacturers are talking about hybrid power, where a small turbofan engine is paired with a battery and electric motors.
I think it could be a way to extend the range of electric aircraft, without creating significant emissions. Aviation biofuel would fit well with a hybrid aviation powerplant, as it would further remove emissions.
Completely Automatic Flight
The pilot of a modern airliner does very little flying and there is no reason, pilots couldn’t do as little to fly the plane, as a driver on a Victoria Line tube has done since 1967 to drive the train.
When a train is ready to depart, the driver presses a button and the train moves automatically to the next station.
If anything unusual happens, the driver takes control.
Why not with airliners?
Point-To-Point Air Services
In MagniX Electric Aircraft Engines Take To The Skies, I put this quote from magniX, who make the electric motors for electric aircraft.
magniX says 45% of all airline flights cover less than 800 km, while 5% of flights are sub-160 km.
These flights will be the first to go electric.
But they are not really suited for an airport like Heathrow or Gatwick, as each plane needs a separate take-off and landing slot to fit in with conventional flights.
Heathrow want a third runway to increase capacity.
Perhaps it should be for electric flights only!
Electric aircraft will be low-noise and create no pollution.
It would have its own terminal.
Charging facilities would be built into the terminal.
Taxi distances would be short.
The runway would only need to be short.
Passengers would have to arrive and leave by zero-carbon transport.
There might even be space for two runways; one for landing and one of take-off.
I can see a network of both smaller airports and satellites at major airports developing, that are designed for electric aircraft.
Some airports, like possibly London City, might convert to all-electric, due to their sensitive locations.
Other important towns and cities without an airport, might develop new all-electric airports.
Hubs might develop at convenient locations in the UK, for short trips to the Continent and Ireland. Perhaps a high speed rail-connected Manston Airport would be ideal for electric flights to Belgium, The Netherlands and Northern France.
Frequent point-to-point electric flights could create a zero-carbon short-haul network for flights of up to about six hundred miles.
Rail Journeys Less Than Four Hours
It is accepted by many analysts and rail companies, that if a train takes less than four hours, then it is a viable alternative to flying.
Could the success of Eurostar’s London and Amsterdam route, be partly down to the that it’s four hours?
First Group subsidiary; East Coast Trains have stated they will target air passengers, with a sub four-hour, one-class £25 train journey between London and Edinburgh.
High Speed Two is currently promising three hours and forty minute journeys between London and Edinburgh/Glasgow, when their service starts.
I believe that rail companies all over the world will see tempting air passengers to use rail, as a market to develop.
Zoom And Other Internet Techniques
During the COVID-19 pandemic, businesses, families and others have started using Internet conferencing in a big way.
But will other software develop, that will have the effect of both cutting flying or making it more zero-carbon.
Suppose, I wanted to visit several cities in the United States. Is there an Internet site that tells me how to do it to create the least amount of CO2?
Biofuel For Short Flights
When I laid out the factors, I only mentioned aviation biofuels once.
That was in conjunction with hybrid aircraft, that use both jet and electric power.
If the hybrid technology succeeds, it may mean that flights up to about a thousand miles are possible and this would include a lot of short haul flights around the world. With biofuels and hybrid powerplants, carbon dioxide emissions will be greatly reduced and could probably be managed by carbon offset measures like tree-planting.
Biofuel For Long Flights
As aircraft get more efficient using biofuel will help to reduce the amount of emissions, to a level that could be balanced by carbon offset.
This will be an expensive process for airlines, as probably most fleets will need to be replaced with more fuel efficient planes.
But this is happening, as 757s and A380 are being replaced by Dreamliners and other more fuel efficient types.
Conclusion
By 2035, most short haul flights will be electric or some form of hybrid power, although a lot will be replaced by high speed rail.
Biofuel won’t save long-haul flights, but it will make them economic for the airlines.
I suspect that there will be a lot of aluminium aircraft going for scrap.
Heathrow airport could make £1.2 billion a year from a congestion charge levied on drivers arriving at the airport by car, according to analysis.
The article also says.
The charge will start when the third runway opens.
The charge will be levied on all cars, even the cleanest.
It is designed to encourage drivers to use public transport, like buses, coaches and trains.
I don’t believe that you can force a lot of passengers to give up their cars, when going to the Airport,. But then for the sake of the planet, they must give up their diesel 4x4s and large cars.
As a non-driver and almost a non-flyer, I’m not affected!
An article with this title is on Page 3 of the Business Section in today’s Sunday Times.
This is the first paragraph.
Car companies could be encouraged to become electricity suppliers under an overhaul of the energy market being explored by the government and the regulator.
This is an excellent idea.
These are a few of my ideas.
All-In-One Deals
It would open up the scope for all-in-one deals for the purchase of electric cars.
The cost of the car, servicing and electricity would all be included.
A cost per mile could be guaranteed, which might rise with distance.
Most importantly, he car company would handle all the hassle and give the customers appropriate training.
It Could Be A Range Anxiety Solution
Some articles in the media, are saying that range anxiety is holding back sales of electric cars, as no-one wants to get stuck in remote locations with flat batteries.
Up market brands already have their own rescue service and I can envisage a network of electric trucks, which can rescue stranded vehicles, by giving them sufficient charge to get to the nearest charger.
These trucks could even be in a common fleet with video screens informing everybody they were a particular car company’s Electric Vehicle Rescue Truck. So when rescuing an Audi, they would say Audi’s El;ectric Vehicle Rescue Truck.
If a prospective punter, saw a rescue truck, with their favourite make on the side, it might persuade them to pop in to a showroom.
Free Or Reduced Cost Parking In Electric-Only Car Parks
I have tackled this before in October 2016 in a post called Changing Sides.
This was how I started that post.
There is an interesting article in The Sunday Times today, entitled Boris Retreats In Fight Against Third Runway.
Boris is apparently saying he won’t oppose a third runway at Heathrow, so if anything he’s being consistent in changing horses, just as he did with Michael Gove.
But perhaps more surprisingly, Willie Walsh, the Chief Executive of IAG, who own BA, is quoted as calling Heathrow a fantasy project, which has been gold-plated and inflated by the owners to maximise their returns, at the expense of the airlines.
The paper also says that Gatwick will build a new runway anyway.
Remember, it was written before Theresa May’s government decided to allow Heathrow’s Third Runway.
Since the decision to allow Heathrow to build a Third Runway was made nearly three years ago in October 2016, there have been a lot of changes.
Notably, Boris has gone from Foreign Secretary and an MP in a Heathrow Expansion-opposing constituency to Prime Minister.
As Prime Minister he is supposed to look at the bigger picture.
Unless he’s totally stupid he must have noted the following.
Brexit Has Changed From A Simple Quick Exit Into A Slow And Very Tortuous Process
I would expect an opinion poll would show that the UK population thinks that sorting out Brexit is a much more important problem, than the decision on a new runway in the South East of England.
So will Boris put Heathrow’s Third Runway on the back burner, given the following factors
Gatwick has been included in a number of reviews of airport capacity in southeastern England. Expansion options have included a third terminal and a second runway, although a 40-year agreement not to build a second runway was made in 1979 with West Sussex County Council. Expanded operations would allow Gatwick to handle more passengers than Heathrow does today, with a new terminal between two wide-spaced runways. This would complement or replace the South Terminal, depending on expected future traffic.
My project management knowledge tells me, that Gatwick could add a second runway and upgrade the terminals in a shorter time, than Heathrow can build a third runway.
But more importantly, Gatwick Airport could build the extra runway and terminal without disruption to airport passengers, aircraft and road traffic on the nearby M23.
Recent timetabling and construction fiascoes on Thameslink and Northern Rail should have sent a message to politicians, that large infrastructure projects must be created without disrupting train or air passengers and road traffic.
Can Heathrow Be Built Without Disrupting Traffic On The M25?
It is interesting to look back at the basic facts at the construction of Heathrow Terminal 5.
A public enquiry into the project lasted 525 days.
The terminal sits on a 260 hectare site.
Construction started in 2002.
The terminal opened in 2008.
Construction finisged in 2011.
The terminal cost £4.2billion.
The construction of Terminal 5, also needed the M25 to be widened and linked to the terminal.
This Google Map shows Heathrow Terminal 5 and its relationship to Heathrow’s current two runways and the M25.
I remember the construction of Terminal 5 well, if only because, I was stuck in or moving slowly along that section of the M25 so many times.
As this immense construction project, is probably in living memory of much of the population of West London, how will they react to the thought of all the disruption, that building the third runway will cause.
Would Uxbridge, throw Boris out, if he approved the building of a third runway at Heathrow?
Heathrow Is A Pollution Blackspot
Various factors mean, that the surroundings of Heathrow are a pollution blackspot, mainly caused by the large number of diesel vehicles on the M4 and M25 motorways and others bringing passengers and goods to the airport.
I believe that any Planning Permission for the third runway, will require Heathrow to do something about the pollution. This could be easier than anybody thinks, as more of us will be using electric vehicles by the time the runway opens.
Heathrow are already proposing their ULEZ or Ulta Low Emission Zone.
Heathrow Rail Access Will Improve
Crossrail will eventually serve Heathrow in a year or so and this will improve rail access to the Airport significantly.
This better rail access may reduce the traffic and pollution around the airport, but it will make it easier, for passengers to use the airport and traffic will grow.
High Speed Rail
Increasingly, Heathrow and the other London airports, will come under competition from High Speed Rail.
Eurostar has upwards of seventy percent of the London-Paris and London-Brussels passenger markets.
I have travelled a few times from London to Amsterdam on Eurostar and feel that four hours is my limit for comfortable train travel.
I estimate the following journeys would be possible on Eurostar.
London and Cologne via Brussels in four hours
London and Bordeaux via Paris in four and a half hours.
London and Frankfurt in Five hours.
Another competitor to air services out of London will be London and Edinburgh services on the East Coast Main Line, which are being updated with new faster trains and journey times under four hours.
Air Cargo And Heathrow
I looked up air cargo in Wikipedia and these points are there.
Fifty-percent of all air frieght is belly-cargo on airlines.
An industry expert estimates that 15-20 tonnes of air cargo is worth 30-40 economy passenger seats, when both are on passenger planes.
In 2017, the IATA observed a 9% rise in freight tonne kilometres
Boeing is doubling its 767F production since 2016 to three per month in 2020.
Heathrow dominates the air cargo traffic into and out of the UK and last year it handled 1,788,815 tonnes of cargo, which was a 5.3% increase in tonnage on 2017.
However, it does appear that the second largest cargo airport in the UK; East Midlands, handled about the same amount of freight as Heathrow in April 2018.
There is also the East Midlands Gateway close to that airport, which will be a massive logistics park., with a rail connection.
Perhaps the pressures of the congested Heathrow, with some nudging from the Government could remove the cargo aircraft from the airport to more suitable airports like East Midlands and Doncaster Sheffield.
Manchester Airport Is The Most Important Airport North Of London
Manchester Airport is the busiest Airport after Heathrow and Gatwick and over the next few years it will catch up to a certain extent.
In Changes Signalled For HS2 Route In North, I said this about Manchester Airport’s rail connectivity if High Speed Two and Northern Powerhouse Rail are combined across the Pennines.
If High Speed Two and Northern Powerhouse Rail are developed as laid out in the Transport for the North report, the following cities will be connected to Manchester Airport.
Birmingham – High Speed Two
Blackpool – Northern Powerhouse Rail/West Coast Main Line
Bradford – High Speed Two/Northern Powerhouse Rail
Carlisle – Northern Powerhouse Rail/West Coast Main Line
Edinburgh – Northern Powerhouse Rail/East Coast Main Line
Glasgow – Northern Powerhouse Rail/West Coast Main Line
Preston – Northern Powerhouse Rail/West Coast Main Line
Sheffield – Northern Powerhouse Rail
Sunderland – Northern Powerhouse Rail
York – High Speed Two/Northern Powerhouse Rail
Manchester Airport will probably become the most important station in the North with High Speed connections to a large part of England and Scotland.
Heathrow and Gatwick will find they have a very big and well-connected Northern competitor.
Extinction Rebellion And Other Environmental Protesters
Most of the environmental protesters like Extinction Rebellion seem to have focused their attention on Heathrow, where airports are concerned.
They will fight tooth and nail to stop Heathrow’s third runway.
Will Heathrow Get The Planning Permission They Need?
I think that this is the sort of planning decision, that will end up with the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; Theresa Villiers.
Her Wikipedia entry says this.
Villiers favours construction of a high-speed rail link from London to Birmingham and Manchester, arguing that flyers could use capacity at airports such as Birmingham International and Manchester International Airport.
She is also quoted as being against a third runway at Heathrow, when she was a member of Davisd Cameron’s cabinet.
Grant Schapps, who is the current Secretary of State for Transport, could be more supportive to Heathrow’s application.
The Mood Of The UK About The Environment
The view of the average UK voter on the environment has changed markedly in the last few years, driven by documentaries, events and politics from around the world.
Boris’s father; Stanley Johnson has written books on the environment and received the Greenpeace Award for Outstanding Services to the Environment, so this could fit with his opposition to a third runway at Heathrow, when he was Mayor of London.
The Times says this about the construction program.
Only the runway would be built by the opening date of early 2026.
Other facilities such as new terminals, car parks, hotels and transit systems would open from 2030, with an expansion of Terminal 5 the priority
This means that the extra runway capacity can be used initially to better accommodate the same number of flights.
Perhaps Plan B would mean changing the order of construction, leaving a space for the third runway and getting Planning Permission to build it in perhaps starting in 2028.
Conclusion
This is a tough one to call and I know what I would do. I would just let it fester until the decision was forced by another factor.
But Boris is the Prime Minister and will have to make a decision!
For comparison this Google Map shows the Airport recently.
These are some of my thoughts.
The Position Of The Third Runway
As can be seen, the new third runway is to the North-West of the North Runway.
It will extend all the way to the M25.
The M25 will be lowered and the new runway and two parallel taxiways will cross the road on a series of bridges.
This enlargement from the first image shows the crossing of the M25 and two other roads.
Note.
The runway is on the left, which increases the spacing with the North Runway
How openings between the runway and the taxiways will allow natural light onto the motorway.
In the picture you can see five angled taxiways joining the runway from the two taxiways. Does this design mean that aircraft spend a minimum of time queuing for take-off? Similar but not so extreme layouts can also be seen on the two existing runways.
What intrigues me, is what looks to be a hole in front of the ends of the taxiways.
Could it be rail or road access to the airport?
This map from Network Rail shows the route of the proposed Western Rail Approach To Heathrow.
It looks like the dark holes could be the railway, between Langley and Terminal 5.
This section of the rail link is supposed to be in tunnel, but I wonder if costs could be saved if it is in a buttressed cutting, designed in cooperation between Heathrow and Network Rail.
Obviously, it will need to be in tunnel to cross under the M25.
I think that rather cleverly, the runway has been slotted in with the best use of the limited land available.
A Phased Construction Program
The Times says this about the construction program.
Only the runway would be built by the opening date of early 2026.
Other facilities such as new terminals, car parks, hotels and transit systems would open from 2030, with an expansion of Terminal 5 the priority
This means that the extra runway capacity can be used initially to better accommodate the same number of flights.
If Heathrow get it right passengers. should see the following.
They would suffer less from construction.
Fewer taxi delays on the ground.
Less long fuel-burning taxiing between gate and runway.
More flights leaving on time.
It might also enable air traffic controllers to allocate aircraft noise in a fairer manner.
Car Psrking
Two huge new car parks are to be built North and South of the Airport, which in conjunction with new hotels would be connected to the terminals by an underground transit system.
So doesn’t the building of large car parks contradict this policy.
It would unless, the car parks are designed for the future.
Electric cars only.
Intelligent chargers for every parking space.
Whilst the cars are parked and connected, they would be a massive energy storage battery for the National Grid.
When you arrived back to your car after a week in Greece, there would be enough power in the battery for your next journey.
By 2030, there will be a substantial need for parking for electric cars at railway stations and airports. Parking solutions like this will help reduce the carbon footprint of airports.
Conclusion
2030 is ten years away and Heathrow will have to work hard to build an airport fit for those times.
What this blog will eventually be about I do not know.
But it will be about how I’m coping with the loss of my wife and son to cancer in recent years and how I manage with being a coeliac and recovering from a stroke. It will be about travel, sport, engineering, food, art, computers, large projects and London, that are some of the passions that fill my life.
And hopefully, it will get rid of the lonely times, from which I still suffer.