Rumours Grow Over Future Of HS2
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on Railnews.
This is the first paragraph.
The future of HS2 appears to be increasingly in doubt, as reports suggest that the forthcoming Oakervee Review will axe Phase 2b between the West Midlands and Yorkshire and possibly cancel the project entirely.
The article also says this about the first phase of the project.
Another possibility is that Phase 1 between London and Birmingham could be built more cheaply by lowering the maximum speed from the presently-planned 250km/h. Such a reduction would reduce the new line’s capacity and lengthen journey times but still ease the pressure on the West Coast Main Line, where paths are in short supply.
There are three suggestions in these two paragraphs and before I discuss them, I’ll detail the various phases of the project as they are current proposed.
The Phases Of High Speed Two
High Speed Two will be two phases with the second phase split into two.
- Phase 1 – London and the West Midlands
- Phase 2a – West Midlands and Crewe
- Phase 2b – Crewe and Manchester and West Midlands and Leeds
The plan improves links between London and several major cities in the Midlands and North.
Northern Powerhouse Rail
I am a great believer in holistic design and in the economies of doing several similar projects together or in a well-defined sequence, that delivers benefits in a stream.
For that reason, I believe that the equally-important Northern Powerhouse Rail should be designed in conjunction with High Speed Two, to achieve the following objectives.
- A better railway, that connects more towns and cities.
- A phased delivery of benefits.
- Possible cost savings.
This report on the Transport for the North web site which is entitled At A Glance – Northern Powerhouse Rail, advocates a much better approach.
- High Speed Two would go from Crewe to Hull via Warrington, Manchester Airport, Manchester Piccadilly, Huddersfield, Bradford and Leeds.
- Northern Powerhouse Rail would go from Liverpool to Hull via Warrington, Manchester Airport, Manchester Piccadilly, Huddersfield, Bradford and Leeds.
- There would be a double junction at High Legh between Liverpool and Manchester, that connects the two routes.
- London and Liverpool services would use the Western end of Northern Powerhouse Rail from High Legh.
- There would be improvements East of Leeds to connect to Sheffield and the East Coast Main Line.
This map shows the high speed railways between Crewe, Liverpool, Manchester and Warrington.
I discussed, what has been proposed by Transport of the North in Changes Signalled For HS2 Route In North.
Cutting High Speed Two To An Affordable Budget
I’ll take the three suggestions in the Rail News article.
Suggestion One – Cancel The Project
This is actually the second suggestion, but I think the article kills it in the second paragraph, that I quoted, when it says that High Speed Two is needed to ease pressure on the West Coast Main Line.
Cancellation would probably be a vote loser and a big stick with which to beat Boris, if he brought forward any environmental proposals.
I doubt cancellation will happen, unless we get someone like Nigel Farage as Prime Minister.
Suggestion Two – Cancel Phase 2b Between The West Midlands And Yorkshire
This clip of a map from the Transport for the North report shows a schematic of the rail links to the East of Manchester.
Northern Powerhouse Rail would offer a lot of improvements, which are shown in purple.
There are also these projects that will improve trains to and from Yorkshire.
- Northern Powerhouse Rail between Liverpool and Hull via Manchester Airport, Manchester Piccadilly, Huddersfield, Bradford and Leeds.
- A possible connection between Northern Powerhouse Rail and High Speed Two at High Legh.
- Midland Main Line upgrade with 125 mph bi-mode trains between London and Sheffield.
- 140 mph running on the East Coast Main Line between London and Doncaster and onward to Bradford, Hull, Leeds and York.
I’ll add a few more flesh to the points.
High Speed Two To Hull
If High Speed Two connects to Northern Powerhouse Rail at High Legh it will join everything together.
- High Speed Two trains would run between London and Hull via Birmingham, Crewe, Manchester Airport, Manchester Piccadilly, Huddersfield, Bradford and Leeds.
- Very expensive infrastructure would be shared between High Speed Two and Northern Powerhouse Rail.
- Leeds and Manchester would be just twenty minutes apart, with trains from both lines on the same tracks.
- Hull station has the space to handle the trains.
Combining the two routes should save billions.
Midland Main Line To Sheffield, Rotherham, Barnsley, Wakefield And Leeds
This is already ptoposed for the Midland Main Line.
- New stations will be built at Rotherham and Barnsley.
- Four fast trains per hour between Sheffield and Leeds can be delivered.
- 125 mph bi-mode trains to Yorkshire via the East Midlands.
But what about the following?
- Could the Erewash Valley Line be used instead of a new High Speed Two line between the East Midlands and Sheffield?
- Could the Midland Main Line be electrified and upgraded to 140 mph running like the East Coast Main Line?
Similar connectivity to that of High Speed Two can be created at a lower cost.
Cancellation of the Eastern Leg of Phase 2b would mean there would be no improved link between the West and East Midlands.
Perhaps, the Eastern leg of High Speed Two, would run only to the proposed East Midlands Hub station at Toton.
Increasing Capacity On The East Coast Main Line
In Thoughts On A 140 mph East Coast Main Line Between London And Doncaster, I did a crude calculation to see how many extra trains could be run between London and Doncaster on a digitally signalled 140 mph East Coast Main Line.
This was my conclusion.
If something similar to what I have proposed is possible, it looks like as many as an extra seven tph can be accommodated between Kings Cross and the North.
That is certainly worth having.
Extra trains could be run between Kings Cross and Bradford, Hull, Leeds, Nottingham and Sheffield.
Estimated timings would be eighty minutes to Doncaster and under two hours to Leeds.
Suggestion Three – Reduce Speed In Phase 1
There is always a tendency for project promoters to make sure their project is the biggest and the best.
There will be an optimum speed for a London and Birmingham high speed line, which balances benefits, costs, noise and disturbance. One politician’s optimum will also be very different to another’s.
Such parameters like operating speed and capacity must be chosen with care.
Conclusion
I believe, that we need the capacity of both High Speed Two and Northern Powerhouse Rail to move passengers and freight.
So we should design them together and with other improvements like the Midland Main Line and the East Coast Main Line.
PM Backs Clean Air Law
The title of this post is the front page headline on today’s copy of The Times.
This is the sub-heading of the article on The Times web site.
PM promises binding targets to reduce pollution and praises Times campaign
In a separate box in the paper, which is entitled Our Manifesto, this is said.
- A new Clean Air Act to confer a legal right to unjpolluted air for everyone in the UK.
- A ban on new diesel and petrol cars from 2030 and cuts to green car grants to be traversed.
- Temporary traffic bans outside schools at drop-off and pick-up times.
- The extension of pre-2016 diesel and pre-2006 petrol pay zones to more cities.
- Pollution monitors in every postcode to empower people to take action.
How far will Boris Johnson go to meet the manifesto of The Times in the Queen’s Speech on Monday?
Boris Gets Screwed, Glued And Tattooed
I voted Remain, but just wish that this Brexit rubbish can be sorted one way or another!
With my circumstances as a non-driving, single pensioner living alone in a comfortable house with a more than adequate pension, Remain or Leave will probably make no or little difference to the rest of my life.
But other things could!
- Increasing air pollution in London and other cities.
- Global warming.
- A government that raided my pension fund or pursued policies that would reduce its value.
- The closure of more restaurants that are good at gluten-free food!
- A government that didn’t back public transport.
- Increasing violence on the streets.
- A government that didn’t back serious research in Universities.
I have listed them in a rough order.
Should We Leave Now?
I actually feel now, that we should leave the EU, as to disobey the referendum would set a bad and dangerous precedent.
Especially, if we have a second referendum, in the hope of getting a result more acceptable to government and/or parliament and it proves just as close.
Imagine a controversial referendum in the future, such as bringing back the death penalty or imposing high carbon taxes.
If the government and/or parliament does’t get an acceptable result, will they go for further referendums until they do?
Where Now?
Boris is in a corner of his own making!
In the days of Rab Butler, Joe Grimond and Harold Wilson, the solution would have been to call in The Queen, who would give the nod to the next Prime Minister chosen by the Great and Good of the strongest party in the House of Commons.
Now with more democratically elected party leaders and the Fixed Term Parliament Act, such old-fashioned methods are now considered undemocratic.
But will the current crop of comedians in the House break the deadlock?
Conclusion
House Of Cards has nothing on this!
What Happens When An Irresistible Force Meets An Immovable Object?
Wikipedia has an entry called Irresistible Force Paradox.
Read it and you won’t find any help with a solution to the Brexit impasse!
As someone, who is very much a European, who voted Remain and believes that we should always follow the first referendum result, Wikipedia didn’t help me either!
The only thing that will sort this stand-off out, is a good old-fashioned British compromise.
We can probably wait for ever for that!
What Will Boris Do About The Proposed Third Runway At Heathrow?
I have tackled this before in October 2016 in a post called Changing Sides.
This was how I started that post.
There is an interesting article in The Sunday Times today, entitled Boris Retreats In Fight Against Third Runway.
Boris is apparently saying he won’t oppose a third runway at Heathrow, so if anything he’s being consistent in changing horses, just as he did with Michael Gove.
But perhaps more surprisingly, Willie Walsh, the Chief Executive of IAG, who own BA, is quoted as calling Heathrow a fantasy project, which has been gold-plated and inflated by the owners to maximise their returns, at the expense of the airlines.
The paper also says that Gatwick will build a new runway anyway.
Remember, it was written before Theresa May’s government decided to allow Heathrow’s Third Runway.
Since the decision to allow Heathrow to build a Third Runway was made nearly three years ago in October 2016, there have been a lot of changes.
Notably, Boris has gone from Foreign Secretary and an MP in a Heathrow Expansion-opposing constituency to Prime Minister.
As Prime Minister he is supposed to look at the bigger picture.
Unless he’s totally stupid he must have noted the following.
Brexit Has Changed From A Simple Quick Exit Into A Slow And Very Tortuous Process
I would expect an opinion poll would show that the UK population thinks that sorting out Brexit is a much more important problem, than the decision on a new runway in the South East of England.
So will Boris put Heathrow’s Third Runway on the back burner, given the following factors
Gatwick Will Build A Second Runway Anyway
In the Wikipedia entry for Gatwick Airport, there is a section entitled Expansion Proposals, where this is the first paragraph.
Gatwick has been included in a number of reviews of airport capacity in southeastern England. Expansion options have included a third terminal and a second runway, although a 40-year agreement not to build a second runway was made in 1979 with West Sussex County Council. Expanded operations would allow Gatwick to handle more passengers than Heathrow does today, with a new terminal between two wide-spaced runways. This would complement or replace the South Terminal, depending on expected future traffic.
My project management knowledge tells me, that Gatwick could add a second runway and upgrade the terminals in a shorter time, than Heathrow can build a third runway.
But more importantly, Gatwick Airport could build the extra runway and terminal without disruption to airport passengers, aircraft and road traffic on the nearby M23.
Boris’s only problem with Gatwick expansion, is the amount of post he’ll get from Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells.
Disruption Must Be Avoided
Recent timetabling and construction fiascoes on Thameslink and Northern Rail should have sent a message to politicians, that large infrastructure projects must be created without disrupting train or air passengers and road traffic.
Can Heathrow Be Built Without Disrupting Traffic On The M25?
It is interesting to look back at the basic facts at the construction of Heathrow Terminal 5.
- A public enquiry into the project lasted 525 days.
- The terminal sits on a 260 hectare site.
- Construction started in 2002.
- The terminal opened in 2008.
- Construction finisged in 2011.
- The terminal cost £4.2billion.
The construction of Terminal 5, also needed the M25 to be widened and linked to the terminal.
This Google Map shows Heathrow Terminal 5 and its relationship to Heathrow’s current two runways and the M25.
I remember the construction of Terminal 5 well, if only because, I was stuck in or moving slowly along that section of the M25 so many times.
As this immense construction project, is probably in living memory of much of the population of West London, how will they react to the thought of all the disruption, that building the third runway will cause.
Would Uxbridge, throw Boris out, if he approved the building of a third runway at Heathrow?
Heathrow Is A Pollution Blackspot
Various factors mean, that the surroundings of Heathrow are a pollution blackspot, mainly caused by the large number of diesel vehicles on the M4 and M25 motorways and others bringing passengers and goods to the airport.
I believe that any Planning Permission for the third runway, will require Heathrow to do something about the pollution. This could be easier than anybody thinks, as more of us will be using electric vehicles by the time the runway opens.
Heathrow are already proposing their ULEZ or Ulta Low Emission Zone.
Heathrow Rail Access Will Improve
Crossrail will eventually serve Heathrow in a year or so and this will improve rail access to the Airport significantly.
Other rail links are also in prospect.
- The Western Rail Approach to Heathrow could be open by 2024.
- Heathrow Southern Railway could be built.
- The West London Orbital could be built.
The first two would be privately financed.
This better rail access may reduce the traffic and pollution around the airport, but it will make it easier, for passengers to use the airport and traffic will grow.
High Speed Rail
Increasingly, Heathrow and the other London airports, will come under competition from High Speed Rail.
Eurostar has upwards of seventy percent of the London-Paris and London-Brussels passenger markets.
I have travelled a few times from London to Amsterdam on Eurostar and feel that four hours is my limit for comfortable train travel.
I estimate the following journeys would be possible on Eurostar.
- London and Cologne via Brussels in four hours
- London and Bordeaux via Paris in four and a half hours.
- London and Frankfurt in Five hours.
Another competitor to air services out of London will be London and Edinburgh services on the East Coast Main Line, which are being updated with new faster trains and journey times under four hours.
Air Cargo And Heathrow
I looked up air cargo in Wikipedia and these points are there.
- Fifty-percent of all air frieght is belly-cargo on airlines.
- An industry expert estimates that 15-20 tonnes of air cargo is worth 30-40 economy passenger seats, when both are on passenger planes.
- In 2017, the IATA observed a 9% rise in freight tonne kilometres
- Boeing is doubling its 767F production since 2016 to three per month in 2020.
Heathrow dominates the air cargo traffic into and out of the UK and last year it handled 1,788,815 tonnes of cargo, which was a 5.3% increase in tonnage on 2017.
However, it does appear that the second largest cargo airport in the UK; East Midlands, handled about the same amount of freight as Heathrow in April 2018.
There is also the East Midlands Gateway close to that airport, which will be a massive logistics park., with a rail connection.
Perhaps the pressures of the congested Heathrow, with some nudging from the Government could remove the cargo aircraft from the airport to more suitable airports like East Midlands and Doncaster Sheffield.
Manchester Airport Is The Most Important Airport North Of London
Manchester Airport is the busiest Airport after Heathrow and Gatwick and over the next few years it will catch up to a certain extent.
In Changes Signalled For HS2 Route In North, I said this about Manchester Airport’s rail connectivity if High Speed Two and Northern Powerhouse Rail are combined across the Pennines.
If High Speed Two and Northern Powerhouse Rail are developed as laid out in the Transport for the North report, the following cities will be connected to Manchester Airport.
- Birmingham – High Speed Two
- Blackpool – Northern Powerhouse Rail/West Coast Main Line
- Bradford – High Speed Two/Northern Powerhouse Rail
- Carlisle – Northern Powerhouse Rail/West Coast Main Line
- Edinburgh – Northern Powerhouse Rail/East Coast Main Line
- Glasgow – Northern Powerhouse Rail/West Coast Main Line
- Hull – High Speed Two/Northern Powerhouse Rail
- Leeds – High Speed Two/Northern Powerhouse Rail
- London – High Speed Two
- Newcastle -High Speed Two/Northern Powerhouse Rail
- Preston – Northern Powerhouse Rail/West Coast Main Line
- Sheffield – Northern Powerhouse Rail
- Sunderland – Northern Powerhouse Rail
- York – High Speed Two/Northern Powerhouse Rail
Manchester Airport will probably become the most important station in the North with High Speed connections to a large part of England and Scotland.
Heathrow and Gatwick will find they have a very big and well-connected Northern competitor.
Extinction Rebellion And Other Environmental Protesters
Most of the environmental protesters like Extinction Rebellion seem to have focused their attention on Heathrow, where airports are concerned.
They will fight tooth and nail to stop Heathrow’s third runway.
Will Heathrow Get The Planning Permission They Need?
I think that this is the sort of planning decision, that will end up with the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; Theresa Villiers.
Her Wikipedia entry says this.
Villiers favours construction of a high-speed rail link from London to Birmingham and Manchester, arguing that flyers could use capacity at airports such as Birmingham International and Manchester International Airport.
She is also quoted as being against a third runway at Heathrow, when she was a member of Davisd Cameron’s cabinet.
Grant Schapps, who is the current Secretary of State for Transport, could be more supportive to Heathrow’s application.
The Mood Of The UK About The Environment
The view of the average UK voter on the environment has changed markedly in the last few years, driven by documentaries, events and politics from around the world.
Boris’s father; Stanley Johnson has written books on the environment and received the Greenpeace Award for Outstanding Services to the Environment, so this could fit with his opposition to a third runway at Heathrow, when he was Mayor of London.
Do Heathrow Airport Have A Plan B?
In Heathrow Plans Runway Over M25 In 30-Year Expansion, I outlined how I thought the runway would be built.
The Times says this about the construction program.
Only the runway would be built by the opening date of early 2026.
Other facilities such as new terminals, car parks, hotels and transit systems would open from 2030, with an expansion of Terminal 5 the priority
This means that the extra runway capacity can be used initially to better accommodate the same number of flights.
Perhaps Plan B would mean changing the order of construction, leaving a space for the third runway and getting Planning Permission to build it in perhaps starting in 2028.
Conclusion
This is a tough one to call and I know what I would do. I would just let it fester until the decision was forced by another factor.
But Boris is the Prime Minister and will have to make a decision!
D
Does The Acceleration Of The TransPennine Upgrade Have Anything To Do With Boris?
In Issue 885 of Rail Magazine, which was published on 14/08/19, there is an article, which is entitled Johnson Vows To Build New Manchester-Leeds Line, where this is said.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has pledged to fund a new line as part of Northern Powerhouse Rail in what has been described by leaders in the North as a “seminal moment”.
Speaking in Manchester on July 27, Johnson said. “I want to be the PM who does with Northern Powerhouse Rail what we did with Crossrail in London. And today I’m going to deliver on my commitment to that vision with a pledge to fund the Leeds to Manchester route.
“It will be up to local people and us to come to an agreement on the exact proposal they wat – but I have tasked officials to accelerate their work on these plans so that we are ready to do a deal in the autumn.”
Since Boris’s speech, plans for improvements between Huddersfield and Dewsbury have been announced and now it seems that Network Rail have published plans for full electrification between Huddersfield and Leeds, as I discussed in Is There Going To Be Full Electrification Between Leeds And Huddersfield?.
Whether you are for or against Boris, he certainly seems to have got action from Network Rail.
Has Boris Shot The Fox?
Has Boris shown Remoaners and the other parties to be bad losers?
They’ll all running around like headless chickens!
He’ll surely win the next election by a street!!
The only person, who can stop Boris, would be a brilliant orator, with total respect from everybody!
Metrolink Customers Complete 170k Trips Using Contactless System
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Rail Technology Magazine.
The high number of journeys is no surprise to me and Manchester should have introduced this system several years ago!
This post from September 2015 is ntitled Transport for London Are Leading The Contactless Revolution.
I’ll repeat the short post here.
This article from Rail Magazine is entitled Contactless Ticketing Booms In London.
It states the following.
- In the first year, 180 million journeys have been made using contactless cards.
- This accounts for a fifth of all pay-as-you-go journeys.
But what isn’t said is the fact that despite the predictions of some left-wing and green politicians, there has been no hint of any problems. If there had been, the various tabloids would have had a field-day.
When are the rest of the large cities of the UK going to copy London, so I don’t need to use that nineteenth century technology of paper tickets?
Manchester’s figure of 170,000 in four weeks is a rate of around two million in the first year.
- Greater Manchester is a lot smaller than Greater London.
- London had been running Oyster successfully since 2003.
- Oyster and contsctless ticketing could be used on the Underground, Overground, trams, trains and buses.
I will be very surprised if Manchester doesn’t expand their system.
This is said in the Wikipedia entry for Oyster card.
Since the launch of contactless payment in 2012, over 500 million journeys have been made, using over 12 million contactless bank cards.
Assuming the rate of use is level, which it isn’t as it’s increasing, this works out at 71.4 million journeys per year.
- Greater London’s population is 8.8 million
- Greater Manchester’s population is 2.8 million
Just doing a simple pro-rata means that Manchester should see 22 million journeys a year or 62,000 journeys a day.
According to Wikipedia, the Manchester Metrolink had 43.7 million riders in 2018/19.
Conclusion
Manchester must do the following as soon as possible.
- Extend contactless ticketing to all buses and trains in the Greater Manchester area.
- Make sure all taxis accept contactless cards.
- Extend the Mabchester Metrolink.
- Put in an order for some more trams, as soon as possible. They will be needed as traffic will grow exponentially.
- Purchase some vandal-proof terminals.
They should also enter into discussions with Cheshire, Lancashire, Leeds, Liverpool, Sheffield and Yorkshire about creating a common and integrated contactless card system for the North!
Contactless ticketing would transform lhe North!
Will Contactless Ticketing Generate Funding For Extensions?
Some extensions to the Manchester Metrolink will be fairly easy and not very costly to build. In Tram-Trains To Hale Station, I talked about a simple extension to Hale station, that could go a lot further to perhaps Northwich, Sandbach and Crewe.
When Transport for Greater Manchester get a decent financial model and data from a year of contactless ticketing, some of the routes for tram-trains might be possible to fund from a large insurance or pension fund.
I have used this tram-train extension as an example, as there is no need to lay a lot of new track, so costs can be less.
London should have been able to fund improvements, but Sadiq Khan brought in a fare freeze and Crossrail turned out to be late.
A Lesson For Brexit
Boris Johnson was Mayor of London, when full contactless ticketing was implemented in London.
- It was the first such system in the world.
- The left and the green were against it and said it would all end in tears.
- All Londoners and visitors have embraced the system and I’ve never found anybody who refuses to use it.
- Attacks on staff have dropped to a very low level, as there’s no money about.
- In my opinion it is one of the main reasons, that London has been so successful in recent years.
I voted Remain and still think, there are reasons we should stay in Europe.
- But the referendum went the other way and everyone must abide by the result.
- Boris probably had little to do with London’s contactless ticketing revolution, but if it had failed he would have got the blame.
- All politicians in London now embrace the technology and would be voted out of office, if they decided contactless bank cards couldn’t be used.
Boris is now in charge of Brexit and just like those of the left and the green who opposed contactless ticketing, those that oppose Brexit will be Yesterday’s Men.
Like contactless ticketing, it has nothing to do with Boris, but all to do with the power of the man and woman on the bus or in the voting booth.
I think it is too late to stop a No-Deal Brexit.
More New Trains On LNER Wish List
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Rail Magazine.
This is the introductory paragraph.
LNER has revealed it is in the market for new trains, despite only just starting to introduce its new Hitachi Azumas.
There would appear to be more work to be done for their original plan of using shortened InterCity 225 sets.
So to be able to fulfil the timetable to be introduced in 2021, LNER need perhaps another six ten-car trains.
Obviously, they would want Hitachi Class 800 trains or Azumas.
Now here’s a twist!
Under EU regulations, it has to be an open competition.
I thought that Boris Johnson had said we were leaving the EU!
High Speed Two And Brexit
This article on the BBC, is entitled HS2: High-Speed Line Cost ‘could Rise By £30bn’.
Brexiteers like Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage have said in the past, that they are minded to cancel the project.
But surely Boris and Nigel believe that we’ll all be better off under Brexit, so we will have the money for the NHS, kicking the foreigners out of the UK, building a wall to stop the emigrants walking across the Irish Border and High Speed Two.
They can’t have it both ways!
Or is it that both wouldn’t be seen dead on a train?
The Anonymous Widower 