Optimal Prediction of Sand For Adhesion
This project was one of the winners in the First Of A Kind 2022 competition run by Innovate UK.
In this document, this is said about the project.
Project No: 10039258
Project title: Optimal Prediction of Sand For Adhesion
Lead organisation: GOVIA THAMESLINK RAILWAY LIMITED
Project grant: £153,228
Public description: Train services are affected by seasonal variables particularly leaf fall between September and
December. They can also be compromised by wet weather, icy and snowy conditions at a regional
or very localised level on a particular route. Maintaining wheel-rail contact to ensure adequate and
safe braking requires the use of sand in low adhesion conditions. Sand is dispensed to trains in
response to a combination of train service plans and of weather forecast. However, not all trains
are currently able to be replenished during overnight stabling and servicing with attendant risks of
delays and damage to trains and infrastructure. Also, there is a high level of safety risk when sand
replenishment on trains is carried out on a third-rail yard.
“Optimal Prediction of Sand for Adhesion” (OPSA) lead by Govia Thameslink Railway, the major
Train Operating Company on third rail in the UK, will deliver a more efficient and cost-effective
means of predicting the dispensing of sand to trains to ensure services are not compromised by
adhesion losses and train sets are not required to be removed from planned operating diagrams
because of inadequate on board sand supplies. The algorithm developed as a results of this project
will base the estimates on an integrated framework that includes the forecast adhesion, track
maintenance and the expected speed profile in order to capture the change in weather and the seasonal factors.
The algorithm developed represents a cost effective solution to predict the use of sand and
schedule the maintenance of trains enhancing in turn safety and reducing the impact of delays on
the timetable. The algorithm will be developed including direct measure of sand dispersion, braking,
wheel slip and line speed diagram also accounting for human behaviour effects such as driving
style.
Govia Thameslink Railway has engaged with Cranfield University to deliver the disruptive
innovation proposed in this project. The algorithm will enable a more efficient train scheduling
improving public performance measure (PPM) addressing train delay targeting in particular the
25% of delay up to 15 minutes cause by several concurrent issues including train rescheduling and
the National Rail Passenger Survey satisfaction.
My Thoughts And Conclusions
X1wind – Disrupting Offshore Wind
The X1wind web site talks about disrupting offshore wind.
On the home page, they have this statement.
Oceans Contain The Largest Energy Resource On The Planet, Which Remains Untapped
They back it up with this reference.
We estimate the total global technical potential of offshore wind as 71 TW (World Bank, 2021), of which 70% is in deep waters, suited to floating wind.
The home page also has a continuous video of their floating wind turbine, which they call a PivotBuoy.
- The wind turbine is mounted on a triangular float.
- The turbine nacelle is supported on a tripod.
- The turbine faces downwind.
- The float is held in place by a single point mooring.
The float and the turbine automatically align with the wind.
This article on offshoreWIND.biz is entitled X1 Wind Installs Downwind Floating Prototype and gives more details of the turbine.
It’s certainly different.
Cerulean Winds Is A Different Type Of Wind Energy Company
I introduced Cerulean Winds in a post called What Is INTOG?, but I have decided it is too important a concept to be buried in another post.
Cerulean sounds like it could be a sea monster, but it is actually a shade of blue.
This article on offshoreWind.biz is entitled Cerulean Reveals 6 GW Floating Offshore Wind Bid Under INTOG Leasing Round.
These are the two introductory paragraphs.
Green energy infrastructure developer Cerulean Winds has revealed it will bid for four seabed lease sites with a combined capacity of 6 GW of floating wind to decarbonise the UK’s oil and gas sector under Crown Estate Scotland’s Innovation and Targeted Oil and Gas (INTOG) leasing round.
This scale will remove more emissions quickly, keep costs lower for platform operators and provide the anchor for large-scale North-South offshore transmission, Cerulean Winds said.
Note.
- It is privately-funded project, that needs no government subsidy and will cost £30 billion.
- It looks like each site will be a hundred turbines.
- If all the sites are the same, they could be 1.5 GW each, with the use of 15 MW turbines.
- Each site will need £7.5 billion of investment. So it looks like Cerulean have access to a similar magic money tree as Kwasi Kwarteng.
This paragraph describes their four hundred floating bases.
The steel floating bases would constitute hundreds of thousands of tonnes of steel, which unlike cement fixtures, can be floated out from shore which is said to be ideal for the UK.
Building those bases, is a very large project.
On their web site, Cerulean Winds have a page entitled Targeted Oil And Gas Decarbonisation.
This the page’s mission statement.
Cerulean Winds, a green energy & infrastructure developer, is leading a pioneering bid to reduce carbon emissions from oil and gas production through floating offshore wind.
These three paragraphs describe the scheme.
Cerulean Winds pioneering bid proposes an integrated floating wind and hydrogen development across four offshore floating wind farms located West and East of the Shetland Islands and in the North and the South of the Central North Sea (CNS). The objective of the project is to generate electricity from floating wind farms located far offshore on otherwise unallocated and uneconomic seabed areas in order to power oil and gas platforms with green energy.
Cerulean Winds’ dedicated power transmission network will offer both green electrons and green molecules to oil & gas production facilities across the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) with surplus energy used in the production of green hydrogen. This dual approach allows the project to support all ages of oil and gas platforms with constant, reliable power and minimal brownfield modifications.
The optimised scale at which Cerulean Winds’ proposed scheme operates makes it the world’s largest decarbonisation project. It offers green energy to operators for asset power generation, delivered through an affordable Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). Another big advantage is the scheme does not require any public subsidies, but funded entirely through private investment.
That is sensational.
Effectively, they’re building four 1.5 GW power stations in the seas around us to power a large proportion of the oil and gas rigs.
I do have some thoughts.
Who Pays For This Massive Project?
This project overview on the Cerulean web site is entitled The Cerulean Winds INTOG Scheme and it gives many more details of the project.
I will refer to this page as the project overview in the subsequent text.
This is the first sentence of the first paragraph.
Our basin-wide scheme represents more than £30 billion of private investment in a single strategic infrastructure project.
Consider.
- The London Olympics in 2012 cost £9 billion.
- The Elizabeth Line will probably cost around £20 billion.
- The Channel Tunnel in 1994 cost £9 billion.
This project is a lot bigger than these.
Will your spare fifty pounds, still be in your mattress, when Cerulean Winds has put its £30 billion together?
I think so, as this is the last sentence on the page.
The scheme is ‘private wire’ and will not require Government subsidies… being funded entirely through private investment, with no cost to the tax payer.
There will of course, be tax rebates available, as they are for any business from the smallest to the largest.
Green Hydrogen Will Be Produced Offshore
The project overview says this about green hydrogen.
The scheme would use floating offshore wind to power oil and gas assets with surplus energy converted into green hydrogen. Cerulean Winds recognise each brownfield site has a different set of requirements and this would give operators the flexibility to electrify some Brownfield assets without the need to interrupt existing production or shutdown. It would also safeguard oil and gas jobs and create new green energy jobs within the floating wind and hydrogen sectors within the next five years.
The operator will have a choice of energy – electricity or hydrogen.
How Will The Project Earn An Income?
It appears that the project, will have a number of income streams.
The main stream, is described in this sentence from the project overview on the web site.
We have a deep understanding across the energy sector and will partner with the operator to agree the best way to achieve decarbonisation targets at the lowest possible cost. Our approach offers both green electrons and green molecules to the platforms through an affordable Power Purchase Agreement (PPA).
It looks like the oil and gas companies that own the rigs will be significant contributors to Cerulean’s cash flow.
Green electrons (electricity) and green molecules (hydrogen) will also be brought ashore and sold to various operators and the grid.
What Happens To The Gas That Is Currently Used To Power The Oil And Gas Rigs?
I do wonder, the gas, which will no longer be needed to power the rigs will give a boost to the supply to UK consumers.
They’ve thought of that one.
Under a heading of Reducing Gas Imports, this is said.
The project also aims to maximise recovery of energy from offshore platforms. With few exceptions, each platform have their own gas turbines for power generation, burning gas extracted from the reservoirs. Approximately 10% of the gas produced each year is used in offshore power generation. By replacing the need for gas power generation with a supply of clean, green energy, Cerulean Winds’ project frees important volumes of gas produced by platforms for consumption and reduces the UK’s import of gas from overseas.
This project, when it is fully implemented could increase UK gas production by up to ten per cent.
What’s In It For The Rig Operators?
They will have some benefits.
- They will cut their carbon dioxide emissions.
- They will sell about ten percent more of the gas they extract.
- Decarbonisation will not necessarily mean large capital expenditure on the rig.
- I also suspect, that some conveniently-placed rigs will be used to send excess hydrogen from Cerulean Winds’ electrolysers to the shore.
Some rig operators will make money from decarbonisation.
When Will The Project Be Complete?
This is the first paragraph on the project overview.
Our basin-wide scheme represents more than £30 billion of private investment in a single strategic infrastructure project. The locations will be West and East of the Shetland Islands and in the Central North Sea (CNS). They will become operational by 2028.
So we don’t have to wait for ever!
What Happens To Cerulean’s Project, When The Oil And Gas Runs Out Or We Stop Using Oil And Gas?
There would now be four 1.5 GW wind farms in the North Sea, that could be connected to the National Grid.
Conclusion
It looks like Cerulean Winds are a very different energy company.
Ease Up IPA Goes Gluten Free!
The title of this post, is the same as that of this page on the Adnams web site.
I am now 75 and I have been drinking Adnams beer, almost exclusively since I was thirteen.
My father introduced me to halves of Adnams bitter, whilst playing snooker at Felixstowe Conservative Club.
Part of his logic behind doing this was to teach me to drink alcohol responsibly, like he did and to prevent me ending up like his father, who was a drunk, who died before the age of forty.
The other thing, that my father’s teaching did was give me a preference for good real ale. And especially Adnams!
As I write this, I’m drinking a bottle of their 0.5 % Ghost Ship.
I drink it for three reasons.
- Obviously, I like the taste.
- It is low-alcohol, so it doesn’t affect the action of the Warfarin, that stops me having another stroke.
- I also find, that because the beer is made with low amounts of barley to keep the alcohol low, it doesn’t affect my gut, despite the fact that I’m a coeliac.
I have yet to find a low-alcohol beer, that has had an adverse effect on my body.
But Will Ease Up Be Safe For A Coeliac To Drink?
These paragraphs describe how Ease Up is brewed and the testing of the product.
When producing Ease Up, we now use an enzyme called Clarex® which breaks down gluten-type proteins, reducing gluten content to below 20 parts per million (ppm). Only foods that contain 20ppm or less can be labelled as ‘gluten-free.’ According to Coeliac UK, research shows people diagnosed as coeliac can consume products with gluten present at or less than this level, but customers are advised to consider their own individual tolerances.
Clarex® is added in the fermentation vessel, where it mixes well during a normal, vigorous fermentation. Our beer is tested at the end of fermentation and then, after packaging, it is put on hold while it undergoes a thorough external validation process before it is confirmed gluten free and released. Just look out for the new, updated branding.
Note the phrase about individual tolerances.
Conclusion
It looks like Adnams have produced the ideal real ale to have in your pub, club or house, if you have some coeliac customers, family or friends.
Never did I think, I would ever write about disruptive innovation in the brewing industry.
Essex Firm’s Hydrogen Lorry On Show In Stoneleigh
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
These paragraphs describe the truck.
Tevva, the maker in Tilbury, Essex, says it is the first hydrogen fuel cell-supported truck to be designed, built and mass produced in the UK.
The company adds the vehicle has a range of up to 310 miles (500 km) via the tech, with hydrogen tanks able to be refilled in 10 minutes.
It says it wants to help the transport industry adapt to a “post-fossil fuel future”.
To that end, it developed a fuel cell to top up electric battery-powered trucks, giving them a longer range while reducing the size of the electric battery needed.
I think that this truck is a superb example of disruptive innovation.
- Tevva have looked at the 7.5 tonne truck market and have developed a truck that fits it.
- Using hydrogen as a range extender up to to 500 km. is probably a good fit for the use of these vehicles.
- So many local delivery companies will look at these trucks, so they can tell their customers, that they now offer zero-carbon deliveries.
- They will also be useful to go into cities, that charge diesel vehicles.
I also suspect, that a lot of parts follow the route pioneered by the great Colin Chapman – Borrow from other manufacturers.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see other companies following Tevva’s route all over the world.
Zopa Co-Founders Speak Out Against Fintech’s Peer-To-Peer Exit
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Financial News.
Read it, as it a cautionary tale about what happens to disruptive innovation.
Eventually, the big bad boys make sure you don’t disrupt their easy life.
Zopa has been part of my life for fourteen years and it did me well. Especially in the bad times and when I had a personal crisis.
I wrote Stability in Financial Systems in 2012, where I said this.
I have a strong feeling that Zopa, the peer-to-peer lender, is also a stable system. Other companies of the same type may well be too! but I am not as familiar with them as I am with Zopa.
Unfortunately, the decision makers in Zopa decided to become a bank, broke the stability and crashed the company.
Son of Zopa will arise!
A Way Out Of The AstraZeneca Vaccine Row With The EU
This article on the BBC is entitled Brexit: EU Introduces Controls On Vaccines To NI.
These are the introductory paragraphs of the article.
The EU is introducing controls on vaccines made in the bloc, including to Northern Ireland, amid a row about delivery shortfalls.
Under the Brexit deal, all products should be exported from the EU to Northern Ireland without checks.
But the EU believed this could be used to circumvent export controls, with NI becoming a backdoor to the wider UK.
The row involving AstraZeneca, the UK and the EU is now getting serious,
I think, the EU are missing an opportunity.
My Experience Of The AstraZeneca Vaccine
Yesterday, I received my first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine, which I wrote about in Job Done – I’ve Now Had My First Covid-19 Vaccination.
As I am an engineer, who helped to finance a drug-delivery system, I know a bit about the subject of drug delivery.
My jab yesterday seemed to have been administered very quickly and painlessly, without fuss. I regularly have B12 injections as I’m coeliac and this AstraZeneca one was certainly less painful for me.
Have AstraZeneca designed the vaccine and its delivery system so that it will have application in mass vaccination situations like refugee camps, where thousands may need to be vaccinated quickly?
Consider.
- It can be transported and stored at easy-to-manage temperatures.
- I suspect that a skilled vaccinator can vaccinate more patients per hour, than with other vaccines.
- I didn’t feel a thing, which must help those with needle phobia.
- The vaccinator didn’t need to apply a plaster, just using a cotton wool pad and pressure. This must save time.
This looks to me, like disruptive innovation is at work.
Surely, though by streamlining the vaccination process, this will increase the number of patients vaccinated by a well-trained team. This will be what doctors ordered.
The Real Problem With The AstraZeneca Vaccine
I have worked a lot in the design of project management systems and very often, when projects go awry, it is due to a lack of resources.
It strikes me that the problem with the AstraZeneca vaccine, is that there are not enough factories to make the vaccine.
As it is easier to distribute and AstraZeneca are making it without profit, perhaps the EU should approach the UK about creating a couple of large factories to make the vaccine in suitable places across the UK and the EU.
A proportion of this increased production could be distributed to countries, that couldn’t afford a commercial vaccine or didn’t want to get ensnared by the Chinese in a Vaccines-for-Resources deal.
It should also be remembered that Oxford are at the last stages in the testing of a vaccine for malaria. That would surely be a superb encore for Oxford University and AstraZeneca. I suspect the UK will back it, but it would surely be better, if the EU backed it as well.
INEOS Launches A New Clean Hydrogen Business To Accelerate The Drive To Net Zero Carbon Emissions
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from inovyn, which is an INEOS company.
The press release starts with these points.
- The targets set out by the UN and National Governments around the world requires concrete action. INEOS is aiming not only to contribute by decarbonising energy for its existing operations, but also by providing hydrogen that will help other businesses and sectors to do the same.
- The new business will be based in the UK and will invest in ‘first intent’ Clean Hydrogen production across Europe.
- The production of hydrogen based on electrolysis, powered by zero carbon electricity, will provide flexibility and storage capacity for heat and power, chemicals and transport markets.
- The European Union Hydrogen Strategy, which outlines an infrastructure roadmap for widespread utilisation of hydrogen, across Europe by 2030, present new opportunities for the business.
- Geir Tuft CEO INOVYN said, “INEOS is uniquely placed to play a leading role in developing these new opportunities, driven by emerging demand for affordable, low-carbon energy sources, combined with our existing capabilities in operating large-scale electrolysis.”
With revenue in 2019 of $85 billion in 2019, INEOS has the financial resources to make their ambitions come true.
These are my thoughts on statements in the press release.
Geir Tuft’s Statement
Geir Tuft is reported in the press release as saying.
INEOS is uniquely placed to play a leading role in developing these new opportunities, driven by emerging demand for affordable, low-carbon energy sources, combined with our existing capabilities in operating large-scale electrolysis.
This is the first paragraph of the Wikipedia entry for electrolysis.
In chemistry and manufacturing, electrolysis is a technique that uses direct electric current (DC) to drive an otherwise non-spontaneous chemical reaction. Electrolysis is commercially important as a stage in the separation of elements from naturally occurring sources such as ores using an electrolytic cell. The voltage that is needed for electrolysis to occur is called the decomposition potential.
From my experience of working in ICI’s hydrogen plant at Runcorn in the 1970s and my knowledge of the technology and companies involved in the production of hydrogen, there are two standard routes to produce hydrogen by electrolysis.
- Water can be electrolysed as in the classic school physics experiment to produce hydrogen and oxygen.
- Brine can be electrolysed to produce hydrogen, chlorine, sodium metal and sodium hydroxide.
I worked as an instrument engineer in a plant, where brine was electrolysed using the Caster-Kellner process. As the process uses mercury, it is a process that is not without problems. There is a History section in the Wikipedia entry for the Castner-Kellner process, from where this was extracted.
The mercury cell process continues in use to this day. Current-day mercury cell plant operations are criticized for environmental release of mercury leading in some cases to severe mercury poisoning as occurred in Japan Minamata_disease. Due to these concerns, mercury cell plants are being phased out, and a sustained effort is being made to reduce mercury emissions from existing plants.
My work in the plant, involved developing instruments to measure the mercury in the air inside the plant. I was also developing other instruments and programming a Ferranti Argus 500 computer.
Because of the death of her father, C wasn’t happy in Liverpool and when the chance came of a transfer to ICI Plastics at Welwyn Garden City, I took it.
In his statement Geir Tuft says this.
Combined with our existing capabilities in operating large-scale electrolysis.
Large-scale electrolysis was certainly handled professionally in 1970 and I’m certain that INEOS, which now owns the Runcorn plant, handles the hydrogen just as well, if not better with the help of modern technology.
Hydrogen As A By-Product
In some ways, fifty years ago, the hydrogen was considered a by-product and to some a nuisance, as I don’t think, there was much of a mass market for the gas.
I used to see it being taken away in specialist trailers, but there didn’t seem to be a major use.
300,000 Tonnes Of Clean Hydrogen
This paragraph of the press release, outlines the structure of the business.
INEOS has today launched a new business to develop and build Clean Hydrogen capacity across Europe, in support of the drive towards a zero-carbon future. INEOS currently produces 300,000 tonnes of hydrogen a year mainly as a co-product from its chemical manufacturing operations.
Note that co-product is used, but I suspect in many places they have too much of it, so new markets are welcome.
I have used a figure of 23 MWh, as being needed to obtain ten tonnes of hydrogen, but I can’t find where I obtained it. If it is correct then INEOS will need 690 GWh of electricity.
INEOS, Electrolysis And Hydrogen
This paragraph of the press release, outlines the relationship between INEOS, electrolysis and hydrogen
Through its subsidiary INOVYN, INEOS is Europe’s largest existing operator of electrolysis, the critical technology which uses renewable energy to produce hydrogen for power generation, transportation and industrial use. Its experience in storage and handling of hydrogen combined with its established know-how in electrolysis technology, puts INEOS in a unique position to drive progress towards a carbon-free future based on hydrogen.
All they need is the renewable energy, to add to their expertise in turning it into hydrogen.
INEOS’s Vision
This paragraph of the press release, outlines INEOS vision for hydrogen.
INEOS is already involved in several projects to develop demand for hydrogen, replacing existing carbon-based sources of energy, feedstocks and fuel. It expects to develop further partnerships with leading organisations involved in the development of new applications. INEOS will also work closely with European Governments to ensure the necessary infrastructure is put in place to facilitate hydrogen’s major role in the new Green Economy.
It is certainly a comprehensive vision.
The Conclusion Of The Press Release
Wouter Bleukx, Business Unit Manager Hydrogen has said this.
Hydrogen is an important part of a climate neutral economy that has been discussed for decades. Finally, a hydrogen-fuelled economy is within reach as transportation in the UK, Germany, France and other countries begins to run on this carbon free technology. With extensive experience in electrolysis, INEOS is uniquely placed to support these new opportunities, driven by emerging demand for affordable zero-carbon energy sources.
You can’t say the company lacks ambition.
Conclusion
This looks to me to be ambition and disruptive innovation on a grand scale.
But it is a plan that can only get bigger and more far reaching.
If the company succeeds, I believe, it will bring hydrogen for all.