Flybe Appears To Be On The Way Back
I was alerted to the relaunch of the Flybe airline being a serious proposition by this article on the Birmingham Mail, which is entitled Watch As First Of 32 New Flybe Planes Lands At Birmingham Airport.
These are the first two paragraphs.
The first of Flybe’s more eco-friendly planes has landed in Birmingham ready for the launch of the airline’s new city HQ.
Part of a planned 32-aircraft fleet, the De Havilland Canada Dash 8-400 turboprop touched down on the runway at Birmingham Airport on Friday.
The new Flybe will be based at Birmingham Airport and will have a fleet consisting of thirty-two De Havilland Canada Dash 8-400 aircraft.
The De Havilland Canada Dash 8-400
Note these facts about the aircraft.
- According to Wikipedia, 645 aircraft have been ordered, with 587 having been delivered.
- Different variants can handle between 40 and 80 passengers.
- All aircraft delivered since 1996 are dubbed Q-Series and have active noise and vibration suppression, which is designed to improve the cabin ambience.
- A Dash 8-400 is also called a Q400.
But the most interesting development of the Dash 8 aircraft, is that developments are underway, so that the aircraft will be able to be powered by hydrogen.
Universal Hydrogen And A Hydrogen-Powered Q400
This article on Future Flight is entitled Universal Assembles Hydrogen Aircraft Conversion Team In Washington State.
This is the first two paragraphs.
Universal Hydrogen and its hydrogen fuel cell partner Plug Power are joining forces with electric motor specialists MagniX and AeroTec to set up a Hydrogen Aviation Test and Service Center at Grant County International Airport in Moses Lake, Washington. The partners will use the new facility to convert a Dash 8 regional airliner to hydrogen propulsion in time to start commercial operations in 2025. Flight testing is due to begin in 2022.
The new hydrogen powertrain will consist of an electric propulsion unit (EPU) developed by MagniX and fuel cells provided by Plug Power, which has extensive experience converting trucks to hydrogen. Seattle-based AeroTec will take the lead on converting the Dash 8s to hydrogen propulsion, conducting flight tests, and arranging for certification under FAA supplemental type certificates. The system installation work will be conducted at the Moses Lake facility.
This paragraph gives details of the design.
The hydrogen-powered Dash 8 aircraft, which carry between 41 and 60 passengers, will be able to operate on routes of up to around 625 miles. Universal Hydrogen’s plan calls for the fuel to be delivered directly to aircraft in capsules that are installed in a compartment at the rear of the fuselage.
These are my thoughts on the design.
Power Required
Wikipedia says this about the engines of the Dash 8-400 (Q400).
The Series 400 uses Pratt & Whitney Canada PW150A engines rated at 4,850 shp (3,620 kW).
This means that the aircraft will need fuel cells capable of delivering over 7 MW.
This data sheet on the Plug Power web site, says that the company has fuel cells up to 125 KW, which weigh 350 Kg and need a cooling module, that weighs a further 103 Kg. Scaling up shows the power unit could weigh around 25.4 tonnes.
As the maximum take-off weight of a Q400 is around 30.5 tonnes, this wouldn’t leave much weight for the airframe, the two electric motors and propellers, the hydrogen and the passengers and their luggage.
It would appear that Plug Power must be using some form of lighter-weight fuel cell.
Or could they be using an appropriately-sized gas turbine generator from Pratt & Whitney Canada?
It should be noted that a Pratt & Whitney Canada PW150A engine, weighs under a tonne and generates over 3.5 MW.
Obviously, they wouldn’t be developing the plane, if they hadn’t figured out how to generate enough electricity to get it off the ground.
The Hydrogen Capsules
The Product page on the Universal Hydrogen web site is revealing.
This paragraph from the Product page describes how they would convert Regional Aircraft to Hydrogen.
Our first product is a conversion kit for existing regional aircraft, starting with the ATR72 and the De Havilland Canada Dash-8, to fly on hydrogen. This consists of a fuel cell electric powertrain that replaces the existing turboprop engines. It also accommodates, in the rear of the fuselage, our proprietary, lightweight, modular hydrogen capsules that are transported from green hydrogen production sites to the airport and loaded directly into the aircraft using the existing intermodal freight network and cargo handling equipment. By providing both an aircraft conversion solution for the existing fleet and a fuel services offering directly to regional airlines, we will be in passenger service with zero emissions by 2025 and in cargo service shortly thereafter.
Note.
- The cutaway on the Product page of a De Havilland Canada Dash-8, which has three capsules in the rear fuselage.
- The cutaway shows forty seats in the aircraft.
- If you scroll the pictures, you’ll see the design of the capsule.
- The product can be used to convert two regional airliners both of which are in production.
- Airports will need no new infrastructure to handle the hydrogen.
Universal Hydrogen has also signed a deal with Fortescue Future Industries to supply green hydrogen to fill the capsules.
Are A First Flight In 2022 And An in-Service Date Of 2025 Over Ambitious?
The article in Future Flight says this.
AeroTec will take the lead on converting the Dash 8s to hydrogen propulsion, conducting flight tests, and arranging for certification under FAA supplemental type certificates.
FAA Supplemental Type Certificates are outlined on this page on the FAA web site, where this introductory paragraph is given.
A supplemental type certificate (STC) is a type certificate (TC) issued when an applicant has received FAA approval to modify an aeronautical product from its original design. The STC, which incorporates by reference the related TC, approves not only the modification but also how that modification affects the original design.
They are a much-used and well-proven method to update aircraft for new purposes and new power units.
I suspect that going this route will enable Q400 and ATR 72 aircraft will be flying on hydrogen by 2025.
How Far Will A Range Of 625 Miles Take The Plane From Birmingham?
I have used the Air Miles Calculator to calculate distances in miles from Birmingham.
- Amsterdam Schiphol – 276
- Barcelona – 791
- Belfast City 225
- Berlin Schönefeld – 644
- Biarritz – 621
- Bilbao – 635
- Bordeaux – 529
- Cologne – 397
- Copenhagen – 624
- Cork – 290
- Dublin – 200
- Dusseldorf – 373
- Edinburgh – 251
- Frankfurt – 452
- Geneva – 556
- Glasgow – 260
- Hamburg – 495
- Inverness – 364
- Jersey – 225
- Kirkwall – 474
- Lerwick – 536
- Lyon – 558
- Munich – 660
- Newcastle – 179
- Newquay – 198
- Nice – 735
- Oslo – 726
- Paris-Charles de Gaulle – 303
- Paris-Orly – 315
- Rotterdam – 265
- Strasbourg – 494
Note.
- It might be possible to serve some routes without refuelling at the other end.
- Some routes could be paired for efficiency and still be well below 600 miles.
- The large intercontinental airports of Amsterdam Schiphol, Frankfurt and Paris-Charles de Gaulle should be reached easily.
- Amsterdam Schiphol Airport has a well-connected railway station.
- Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport has a TGV station.
- Frankfurt Airport has a long distance railway station on the Cologne-Frankfurt high speed line.
- If you’re flying to the South of France or Switzerland, it looks like flying from London City Airport is about a hundred miles shorter.
It would appear that the range of 625 miles could be very useful, especially if you use a long distance train at both ends of the flight.
I can certainly understand why Flybe has chosen Birmingham as its main base.
Will Flybe Convert Their Aircraft To Hydrogen?
This is obviously up to the company, but if they don’t, someone else will and Flybe will lose their regional market in the UK.
Conclusion
I think those behind the new Flybe could be looking to create the UK’s first zero-carbon airline.
High-Speed Low-Carbon Transport Between Great Britain And Ireland
Consider.
- According to Statista, there were 13,160,000 passengers between the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic in 2019.
- In 2019, Dublin Airport handled 32,907,673 passengers.
- The six busiest routes from Dublin were Heathrow, Stansted, Amsterdam, Manchester, Birmingham and Stansted.
- In 2018, Belfast International Airport handled 6,269,025 passengers.
- The four busiest routes from Belfast International Airport were Stansted, Gatwick. Liverpool and Manchester, with the busiest route to Europe to Alicante.
- In 2018, Belfast City Airport handled 2,445,529 passengers.
- The four busiest routes from Belfast City Airport were Heathrow, Manchester, Birmingham and London City.
Note.
- The busiest routes at each airport are shown in descending order.
- There is a lot of air passengers between the two islands.
- Much of the traffic is geared towards London’s four main airports.
- Manchester and Liverpool get their fair share.
Decarbonisation of the air routes between the two islands will not be a trivial operation.
But technology is on the side of decarbonisation.
Class 805 Trains
Avanti West Coast have ordered thirteen bi-mode Class 805 trains, which will replace the diesel Class 221 trains currently working between London Euston and Holyhead.
- They will run at 125 mph between Euston and Crewe using electric power.
- If full in-cab digital signalling were to be installed on the electrified portion of the route, they may be able to run at 140 mph in places under the wires.
- They will use diesel power on the North Wales Coast Line to reach Holyhead.
- According to an article in Modern Railways, the Class 805 trains could be fitted with batteries.
I wouldn’t be surprised that when they are delivered, they are a version of the Hitachi’s Intercity Tri-Mode Battery Train, the specification of which is shown in this Hitachi infographic.
Note.
- I suspect that the batteries will be used to handle regenerative braking on lines without electrification, which will save diesel fuel and carbon emissions.
- The trains accelerate faster, than those they replace.
- The claimed fuel and carbon saving is twenty percent.
It is intended that these trains will be introduced next year.
I believe that, these trains will speed up services between London Euston and Holyhead.
- Currently, services take just over three-and-a-half hours.
- There should be time savings on the electrification between London Euston and Crewe.
- The operating speed on the North Wales Coast Line is 90 mph. This might be increased in sections.
- Some extra electrification could be added, between say Crewe and Chester and possibly through Llandudno Junction.
- I estimate that on the full journey, the trains could reduce emissions by up to sixty percent compared to the current diesel trains.
I think that a time of three hours could be achievable with the Class 805 trains.
New trains and a three hour journey time should attract more passengers to the route.
Holyhead
In Holyhead Hydrogen Hub Planned For Wales, I wrote about how the Port of Holyhead was becoming a hydrogen hub, in common with several other ports around the UK including Felixstowe, Harwich, Liverpool and Portsmouth.
Holyhead and the others could host zero-carbon hydrogen-powered ferries.
But this extract from the Wikipedia hints at work needed to be done to create a fast interchange between trains and ferries.
There is access to the port via a building shared with Holyhead railway station, which is served by the North Wales Coast Line to Chester and London Euston. The walk between trains and ferry check in is less than two minutes, but longer from the remote platform 1, used by Avanti West Coast services.
This Google Map shows the Port of Holyhead.
I think there is a lot of potential to create an excellent interchange.
HSC Francisco
I am using the high-speed craft Francisco as an example of the way these ships are progressing.
- Power comes from two gas-turbine engines, that run on liquified natural gas.
- It can carry 1024 passengers and 150 cars.
- It has a top speed of 58 knots or 67 mph. Not bad for a ship with a tonnage of over 7000.
This ship is in service between Buenos Aires and Montevideo.
Note.
- A craft like this could be designed to run on zero-carbon liquid hydrogen or liquid ammonia.
- A high speed craft already runs between Dublin and Holyhead taking one hour and forty-nine minutes for the sixty-seven miles.
Other routes for a specially designed high speed craft might be.
- Barrow and Belfast – 113 miles
- Heysham and Belfast – 127 miles
- Holyhead and Belfast – 103 miles
- Liverpool and Belfast – 145 miles
- Stranraer and Larne – 31 miles
Belfast looks a bit far from England, but Holyhead and Belfast could be a possibility.
London And Dublin Via Holyhead
I believe this route is definitely a possibility.
- In a few years, with a few improvements on the route, I suspect that London Euston and Holyhead could be fairly close to three hours.
- With faster bi-mode trains, Manchester Airport and Holyhead would be under three hours.
- I would estimate, that a high speed craft built for the route could be under two hours between Holyhead and Dublin.
It certainly looks like London Euston and Dublin and Manchester Airport and Dublin would be under five hours.
In A Glimpse Of 2035, I imagined what it would be like to be on the first train between London and Dublin via the proposed fixed link between Scotland and Northern Ireland.
- I felt that five-and-a-half hours was achievable for that journey.
- The journey would have used High Speed Two to Wigan North Western.
- I also stated that with improvements, London and Belfast could be three hours and Dublin would be an hour more.
So five hours between London Euston and Dublin using current technology without massive improvements and new lines could be small change well spent.
London And Belfast Via Holyhead
At 103 miles the ferry leg may be too long for even the fastest of the high speed craft, but if say the craft could do Holyhead and Belfast in two-and-a-half hours, it might just be a viable route.
- It might also be possible to run the ferries to a harbour like Warrenpoint, which would be eighty-six miles.
- An estimate based on the current high speed craft to Dublin, indicates a time of around two hours and twenty minutes.
It could be viable, if there was a fast connection between Warrenpoint and Belfast.
Conclusion
Once the new trains are running between London Euston and Holyhead, I would expect that an Irish entrepreneur will be looking to develop a fast train and ferry service between England and Wales, and the island of Ireland.
It could be sold, as the Greenest Way To Ireland.
Class 807 Trains
Avanti West Coast have ordered ten electric Class 807 trains, which will replace some of the diesel Class 221 trains.
- They will run at 125 mph between Euston and Liverpool on the fully-electrified route.
- If full in-cab digital signalling were to be installed on the route, they may be able to run at 140 mph in places.
- These trains appear to be the first of the second generation of Hitachi trains and they seem to be built for speed and a sparking performance,
- These trains will run at a frequency of two trains per hour (tph) between London and Liverpool Lime Street.
- Alternate trains will stop at Liverpool South Parkway station.
In Will Avanti West Coast’s New Trains Be Able To Achieve London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street In Two Hours?, I came to the conclusion, that a two-hour journey time was possible, when the new Class 807 trains have entered service.
London And Belfast Via Liverpool And A Ferry
Consider.
- An hour on the train to and from London will be saved compared to Holyhead.
- The ferry terminal is in Birkenhead on the other side of the Mersey and change between Lime Street station and the ferry could take much longer than at Holyhead.
- Birkenhead and Belfast is twice the distance of Holyhead and Dublin, so even a high speed craft would take three hours.
This Google Map shows the Ferry Terminal and the Birkenhead waterfront.
Note.
- The Ferry Terminal is indicated by the red arrow at the top of the map.
- There are rows of trucks waiting for the ferries.
- In the South East corner of the map, the terminal of the Mersey Ferry sticks out into the River
- Hamilton Square station is in-line with the Mersey Ferry at the bottom of the map and indicated with the usual red symbol.
- There is a courtesy bus from Hamilton Square station to the Ferry Terminal for Ireland.
There is a fourteen tph service between Hamilton Square and Liverpool Lime Street station.
This route may be possible, but the interchange could be slow and the ferry leg is challenging.
I don’t think the route would be viable unless a much faster ferry is developed. Does the military have some high speed craft under development?
Conclusion
London and Belfast via Liverpool and a ferry is probably a trip for enthusiasts or those needing to spend a day in Liverpool en route.
Other Ferry Routes
There are other ferry routes.
Heysham And Barrow-in-Furness
,These two ports might be possible, but neither has a good rail connection to London and the South of England.
They are both rail connected, but not to the standard of the connections at Holyhead and Liverpool.
Cairnryan
The Cairnryan route could probably be improved to be an excellent low-carbon route to Glasgow and Central Scotland.
Low-Carbon Flight Between The Islands Of Great Britain And Ireland
I think we’ll gradually see a progression to zero-carbon flight over the next few years.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Obviously zero-carbon would be better, but until zero-carbon aircraft are developed, there is always sustainable aviation fuel.
This can be produced from various carbon sources like biowaste or even household rubbish and disposable nappies.
British Airways are involved in a project called Altalto.
- Altalto are building a plant at Immingham to turn household rubbish into sustainable aviation fuel.
- This fuel can be used in jet airliners with very little modification of the aircraft.
I wrote about Altalto in Grant Shapps Announcement On Friday.
Smaller Low-Carbon Airliners
The first low- and zero-carbon airliners to be developed will be smaller with less range, than Boeing 737s and Airbus A 320s. These three are examples of four under development.
- Aura Aero Era – 19 passengers – 500 miles
- Eviation Alice – 9 passengers – 620 miles
- Faradair Aerospace BEHA – 19 passengers – 1150 miles
- Heart Aerospace ES-19 – 19 passengers – 400 km.
I feel that a nineteen seater aircraft with a range of 500 miles will be the first specially designed low- or zero-carbon airliner to be developed.
I believe these aircraft will offer advantages.
- Some routes will only need refuelling at one end.
- Lower noise and pollution.
- Some will have the ability to work from short runways.
- Some will be hybrid electric running on sustainable aviation fuel.
They may enable passenger services to some smaller airports.
Air Routes Between The Islands Of Great Britain And Ireland
These are distances from Belfast City Airport.
- Aberdeen – 228 miles
- Amsterdam – 557 miles
- Birmingham – 226 miles
- Blackpool – 128 miles
- Cardiff – 246 miles
- Edinburgh – 135 miles
- Gatwick – 337 miles
- Glasgow – 103 miles
- Heathrow – 312 miles
- Jersey – 406 miles
- Kirkwall – 320 miles
- Leeds – 177 miles
- Liverpool – 151 miles
- London City – 326 miles
- Manchester – 170 miles
- Newcastle – 168 miles
- Southampton – 315 miles
- Southend – 344 miles
- Stansted – 292 miles
- Sumburgh – 401 miles
Note.
- Some airports on this list do not currently have flights from Belfast City Airport.
- I have included Amsterdam for comparison.
- Distances to Belfast International Airport, which is a few miles to the West of Belfast City Airport are within a few miles of these distances.
It would appear that much of Great Britain is within 500 miles of Belfast City Airport.
These are distances from Dublin Airport.
- Aberdeen – 305 miles
- Amsterdam – 465 miles
- Birmingham – 199 miles
- Blackpool – 133 miles
- Cardiff – 185 miles
- Edinburgh – 208 miles
- Gatwick – 300 miles
- Heathrow – 278 miles
- Jersey – 339 miles
- Kirkwall – 402 miles
- Leeds – 190 miles
- Liverpool – 140 miles
- London City – 296 miles
- Manchester – 163 miles
- Newcastle – 214 miles
- Southampton – 268 miles
- Southend – 319 miles
- Stansted – 315 miles
- Sumburgh – 483 miles
Note.
- Some airports on this list do not currently have flights from Dublin Airport.
- I have included Amsterdam for comparison.
It would appear that much of Great Britain is within 500 miles of Dublin Airport.
I will add a few long routes, that someone might want to fly.
- Cork and Aberdeen – 447 miles
- Derry and Manston – 435 miles
- Manston and Glasgow – 392 miles
- Newquay and Aberdeen – 480 miles
- Norwich and Stornaway – 486 miles.
I doubt there are many possible air services in the UK and Ireland that are longer than 500 miles.
I have a few general thoughts about low- and zero-carbon air services in and around the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
- The likely five hundred mile range of the first generation of low- and zero-carbon airliners fits the size of the these islands well.
- These aircraft seem to have a cruising speed of between 200 and 250 mph, so flight times will not be unduly long.
- Airports would need to have extra facilities to refuel or recharge these airliners.
- Because of their size, there will need to be more flights on busy routes.
- Routes which are less heavily used may well be developed, as low- or zero-carbon could be good for marketing the route.
I suspect they could be ideal for the development of new routes and even new eco-friendly airports.
Conclusion
I have come to the conclusion, that smaller low- or zero-carbon are a good fit for the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
But then Flybe and Loganair have shown that you can make money flying smaller planes around these islands with the right planes, airports, strategy and management.
Hydrogen-Powered Planes From Airbus
Hydrogen-powered zero-carbon aircraft could be the future and Airbus have put down a marker as to the way they are thinking.
Airbus have proposed three different ZEROe designs, which are shown in this infographic.
The turboprop and the turbofan will be the type of designs, that could be used around Great Britain and Ireland.
The ZEROe Turboprop
This is Airbus’s summary of the design for the ZEROe Turboprop.
Two hybrid hydrogen turboprop engines, which drive the six bladed propellers, provide thrust. The liquid hydrogen storage and distribution system is located behind the rear pressure bulkhead.
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the plane.
It certainly is a layout that has been used successfully, by many conventionally-powered aircraft in the past. The De Havilland Canada Dash 8 and ATR 72 are still in production.
I don’t think the turboprop engines, that run on hydrogen will be a problem.
If you look at the Lockheed-Martin C 130J Super Hercules, you will see it is powered by four Rolls-Royce AE 2100D3 turboprop engines, that drive 6-bladed Dowty R391 composite constant-speed fully-feathering reversible-pitch propellers.
These Rolls-Royce engines are a development of an Allison design, but they also form the heart of Rolls-Royce’s 2.5 MW Generator, that I wrote about in Our Sustainability Journey. The generator was developed for use in Airbus’s electric flight research program.
I wouldn’t be surprised to find the following.
- , The propulsion system for this aircraft is under test with hydrogen at Derby and Toulouse.
- Dowty are testing propellers suitable for the aircraft.
- Serious research is ongoing to store enough liquid hydrogen in a small tank that fits the design.
Why develop something new, when Rolls-Royce, Dowty and Lockheed have done all the basic design and testing?
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the front view of the plane.
From clues in the picture, I estimate that the fuselage diameter is around four metres. Which is not surprising, as the Airbus A320 has a height of 4.14 metres and a with of 3.95 metres. But it’s certainly larger than the fuselage of an ATR-72.
So is the ZEROe Turboprop based on a shortened Airbus A 320 fuselage?
- The ATR 72 has a capacity of 70 passengers.
- The ZEROe Turboprop has a capacity of less than a hundred passengers.
- An Airbus A320 has six-abreast seating.
- Could the ZEROe Turboprop have sixteen rows of seats, as there are sixteen windows in front of the wing?
- With the seat pitch of an Airbus A 320, which is 81 centimetres, this means just under thirteen metres for the passengers.
- There could be space for a sizeable hydrogen tank in the rear part of the fuselage.
- The plane might even be able to use the latest A 320 cockpit.
It looks to me, that Airbus have designed a larger ATR 72 based on an A 320 fuselage.
I don’t feel there are any great technical challenges in building this aircraft.
- The engines appear to be conventional and could even have been more-or-less fully developed.
- The fuselage could be a development of an existing design.
- The wings and tail-plane are not large and given the company’s experience with large composite structures, they shouldn’t be too challenging.
- The hydrogen storage and distributing system will have to be designed, but as hydrogen is being used in increasing numbers of applications, I doubt the expertise will be difficult to find.
- The avionics and other important systems could probably be borrowed from other Airbus products.
Given that the much larger and more complicated Airbus A380 was launched in 2000 and first flew in 2005, I think that a prototype of this aircraft could fly around the middle of this decade.
It may seem small at less than a hundred seats, but it does have a range of greater than a 1000 nautical miles or 1150 miles.
Consider.
- It compares closely in passenger capacity, speed and range, with the De Havilland Canada Dash 8/400 and the ATR 72/600.
- The ATR 72 is part-produced by Airbus.
- The aircraft is forty percent slower than an Airbus A 320.
- It looks like it could be designed to have a Short-Takeoff-And Landing (STOL) capability.
I can see the aircraft replacing Dash 8s, ATR 72s and similar aircraft all over the world. There are between 2000 and 3000 operational airliners in this segment.
The ZEROe Turbofan
This is Airbus’s summary of the design.
Two hybrid hydrogen turbofan engines provide thrust. The liquid hydrogen storage and distribution system is located behind the rear pressure bulkhead.
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the plane.
This screen capture taken from the video, shows the front view of the plane.
The aircraft doesn’t look very different different to an Airbus A320 and appears to be fairly conventional. It does appear to have the characteristic tall winglets of the A 320 neo.
I don’t think the turbofan engines, that run on hydrogen will be a problem.
These could be standard turbofan engines modified to run on hydrogen, fuelled from a liquid hydrogen tank behind the rear pressure bulkhead of the fuselage.
If you want to learn more about gas turbine engines and hydrogen, read this article on the General Electric web site, which is entitled The Hydrogen Generation: These Gas Turbines Can Run On The Most Abundant Element In the Universe,
These are my thoughts of the marketing objectives of the ZEROe Turbofan.
- The cruising speed and the number of passengers are surprisingly close, so has this aircraft been designed as an A 320 or Boeing 737 replacement?
- I suspect too, that it has been designed to be used at any airport, that could handle an Airbus A 320 or Boeing 737.
- It would be able to fly point-to-point flights between most pairs of European or North American cities.
It would certainly fit the zero-carbon shorter range airliner market!
In fact it would more than fit the market, it would define it!
I very much believe that Airbus’s proposed zero-carbon hydrogen-powered designs and others like them will start to define aviation on routes of up to perhaps 3000 miles, from perhaps 2035.
- The A 320 neo was launched in December 2010 and entered service in January 2016. That was just five years and a month.
- I suspect that a lot of components like the fuselage sections, cockpit, avionics, wings, landing gear, tailplane and cabin interior could be the same in a A 320 neo and a ZEROe Turbofan.
- Flying surfaces and aerodynamics could be very similar in an A 320 neo and a ZEROe Turbofan
- There could even be commonality between the ZEROe Turboprop and the ZEROe Turbofan, with respect to fuselage sections, cockpit, avionics and cabin interior.
There also must be the possibility, that if a ZEROe Turbofan is a hydrogen-powered A 320 neo, that this would enable the certification process to be simplified.
It might even be possible to remanufacture a A 320 neo into a ZEROe Turbofan. This would surely open up all sorts of marketing strategies.
My project management, flying and engineering knowledge says that if they launched the ZEROe Turbofan this year, it could be in service by the end of the decade on selected routes.
Conclusion
Both the ZEROe Turboprop and ZEROe Turbofan are genuine zero-carbon aircraft, which fit into two well-defined market segments.
I believe that these two aircraft and others like them from perhaps Boeing and Bombardier could be the future of aviation between say 500 and 3000 miles.
With the exception of the provision of hydrogen refuelling at airports, there will be no need for any airport infrastructure.
I also wouldn’t be surprised that the thinking Airbus appear to have applied to creating the ZEROe Turbofan from the successful A 320 neo, could be applied to perhaps create a hydrogen-powered A 350.
I feel that Airbus haven’t fulling disclosed their thinking. But then no company would, when it reinvents itself.
T also think that short-haul air routes will increasing come under pressure.
The green lobby would like airlines to decarbonise.
Governments will legislate that airlines must decarbonise.
The rail industry will increasingly look to attract customers away from the airlines, by providing more competitive times and emphasising their green credentials.
Aircraft manufacturers will come under pressure to deliver zero-carbon airliners as soon as they can.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a prototype ZEROe Turbofan or Boeing’s equivalent fly as early as 2024.
Short Term Solutions
As I said earlier, one solution is to use existing aircraft with Sustainable Aviation Fuel.
But many believe this is greenwash and rather a cop out.
So we must do better!
I don’t believe that the smaller zero- and low-carbon aircraft with a range of up to 500 miles and a capacity of around 19 seats, will be able to handle all the passengers needing to fly between and around the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
- A Boeing 737 or Airbus A 320 has a capacity of around two hundred passengers, which would require ten times the number of flights, aircraft and pilots.
- Airports would need expansion on the airside and the terminals to handle the extra planes.
- Air Traffic Control would need to be expanded to handle the extra planes.
But the smaller planes would be ideal for the thinner secondary routes.
So I tend to think, that the greens will have to lump it, as Sustainable Aviation Fuel will increasingly be the only viable solution.
This will increase the need for Airbus or Boeing to develop a viable A 320 or 737-sized aircraft as soon as possible.
Air Bridges
I said earlier, that I believe using ferries between Ireland and Holyhead and new bi-mode Class 805 trains between London Euston and Holyhead could be a competitor to airlines.
- The ferries would be high speed craft capable of Holyhead and Ireland in around 90-100 minutes.
- The ferries would be zero-carbon.
- The trains would have a sixty percent reduction in carbon emissions compared to current trains on the route.
If we can skim across the water in a zero-carbon high speed craft, are there any reasons we can’t cross the water in a low- or zero-carbon aircraft.
In the next few sub-sections, I’ll suggest a few air bridges.
Glasgow
Glasgow Airport could be an ideal airport for a low or zero-carbon air bridge to Northern Ireland.
- A rail link could eventually be built.
- There is a reasonable amount of traffic.
- The distance to Belfast City Airport is only 103 miles.
As the airport serves islands and other places that could be ideal low- and zero-carbon routes, I could see Glasgow becoming a hub for battery and hydrogen-powered aircraft.
Heathrow
Heathrow must prepare itself for an uncertain future.
It will be some years before a third runway is both needed and will have been constructed.
I believe the following will happen.
- Smaller up to nineteen seat low- or zero-carbon airliners will be in service by 2025.
- From around 2024, Heathrow will get requests to refuel or charge low- or zero-carbon airliners.
- Low- or-zero- carbon A 320-size airliners will be in service by 2030.
- Most ground equipment at Heathrow like tugs and fuel bowsers will be zero-carbon.
If I were Boris or Prime Minister, I would say that Heathrow could have its third runway with the following conditions.
- All aircraft using the third runway must be zero-carbon
- All air-side vehicles must be zero-carbon.
- All vehicles bringing passengers on the last mile to the airport must be zero-carbon.
- All aircraft using the airport that are not zero-carbon must use sustainable aviation fuel.
I suspect that the conditions would be met by a large margin.
When an airport knows it is effectively going to be closed, it will make sure it survives.
Liverpool
Liverpool Airport could be an ideal airport for a low or zero-carbon air bridge to the island of Ireland.
- There is a nearby Liverpool South Parkway station, with frequent services to both the local area and places further away.
- An improved London train service starts in 2022 or 2023.
- There would need to be a people mover between the station and the airport.
- The airport can probably have piped hydrogen from across the Mersey.
- There is already significant traffic to and from the island of Ireland.
- Flight times Between Liverpool and Dublin and Belfast would be under an hour.
I also feel that Liverpool could develop lots of other low- and zero-carbon routes to perhaps Cardiff, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Norwich, Southampton and the Isle of Man.
I could even see Liverpool having a Turn-Up-And-Go shuttle service to Dublin and Belfast, with small zero-carbon planes running every fifteen minutes or so.
Manston
I wouldn’t rule out Manston as a low- and zero-carbon airport for flights to the Benelux countries and Northern France and parts of Germany.
These are a few distances from Manston Airport.
- Amsterdam – 160 miles
- Brussels – 134 miles
- Cologne – 253 miles
- Dusseldorf – 234 miles
- Frankfurt – 328 miles
- Geneva – 414 miles
- Hamburg – 396 miles
- Le Touquet – 59 miles
- Lille – 49 miles
- Luxembourg – 243 miles
- Ostend – 66 miles
- Strasbourg – 339 miles
Manston’s position on the tip of Kent gives it an advantage and I think low- and zero-carbon services could reach Cologne, Frankfurt, Geneva, Hamburg and Strasbourg.
The airport also has other advantages.
- A big electrolyser to produce hydrogen is being built at Herne Bay.
- The area is rich in wind and solar energy.
- I suspect the airspace to the East of the airport isn’t very busy and short hops to the Continent could be easy to slot in.
There is a new station being built at Thanet Parkway, which is on the Ashford and Ramsgate Line, which has regular services to London, including some services on High Speed One.
This Google Map shows the location of the airport and the station.
Note.
- The runway of Manston Airport.
- The Ashford and Ramsgate Line running across the South-East corner of the map.
- The station could be built to the West of the village of Cliffsend, which is indicated by the red arrow.
- I’m sure, a people mover or a zero-carbon bus could be built to connect the station and the airport.
There would need to be improvements in the frequency of services to and from London, but I’m sure Manston Airport could become an ideal airport for low- and zero-carbon aircraft serving the near Continent.
Southampton
Southampton Airport could be the ideal design for an airport to serve an air bridge.
- The Southampton Airport Parkway station is connected to the terminal.
- The station has numerous rail services, including a fast service to and from London.
- The airport is expanding and could make sure all works are compatible with a low- and zero-carbon future.
Southampton is not ideally placed for services to Ireland, but with low- and zero-carbon aircraft it could be ideal for running services to the Channel Islands and Western France.
Other Airports
I suspect other airports will go the low- and zero-carbon route.
Conclusion
I started this post, with the intention of writing about writing about low- and zero-carbon transport between the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
But it has grown.
I have now come to the conclusion that there are several low- and zero-carbon routes that could be developed.
The most promising would appear to be.
- London Euston and Belfast by new Class 805 train to Holyhead and then zero-carbon high speed ferry.
- London Euston and Dublin by new Class 805 train to Holyhead and then zero-carbon high speed ferry.
- Glasgow and Belfast by train to Cairnryan and then zero-carbon high speed ferry.
- Point-to-point air routes using new small nineteen seat low- or zero-carbon airliners with a range of 500 miles.
- London Euston and Belfast by new Class 807 train to Liverpool Airport and then smaller low- or zero-carbon airliner.
- London Euston and Dublin by new Class 807 train to Liverpool Airport and then and then smaller low- or zero-carbon airliner.
- Other air bridges will develop.
But I am fairly certain by the end of the decade, there will be A320-size airlines powered by hydrogen taking us to Ireland and Western Europe.
I believe that the survival and ultimate prospering of Airbus and Boeing depends on the development of a range of zero-carbon airliners.
For this reason alone, they will succeed.
Do Low Cost Airlines Get it Right?
I ask this question because over the weekend I used two to get to and from Holland. As I had to visit someone at Winchester, I went out from Southampton on FlyBe to Schipol and came back to Stansted on easyJet.
Southampton Airport couldn’t have been more convenient for the train. It was just a short walk from the train to the check-in without any steps.
I did have a problem in that I arrived very early as my meeting had not gone on as long as I thought it might. So although I was booked on the 18:10 flight, I could have actually caught the earlier 14:25.
Could I change to the earlier flight?
I could, but only for a charge of eighty pounds. Now, I know they have rules about changing, which means that you pay the difference between prices and an administration fee, but surely there comes a point at which it is in the airline’s interest to bump someone forward. After all, they may sell your seat to someone later. But once a flight closes they can’t sell it.
So I waited the extra four hours. I think if the woman on the desk hadn’t been so firm, I might have tried to negotiate!
It has to be said that some airlines, allow you to change to an earlier flight, but only on your way home.
This may be simple but it is wrong or perhaps something that security rules won’t countenance.
Surely though if there are still seats on the 14:25, then as it gets nearer to the closure, the price of the seats should decrease, as the demand for them is smaller. You could argue that they should drop to almost nothing, but to stop people buying a later and cheaper flight and then transferring, the price would probably only drop to that of the next flight.
So in some cases there might be a charge and there could probably be an adminstration fee of a few pounds, but it would mean that the passenger didn’t have a long wait and the empty seat would be delayed for a few hours. They just might just sell it, in which case they would have made a profit.
At least though Southampton Airport wasn’t a bad place to wait, as they had a viewing gallery where I could watch the planes taking off and landing.
The flight was fine, although some passengers didn’t like the ride in the Dash 8. But it would have been bumpy in anything else. I’ve also piloted a light aircraft in worse. Only when you’ve done that do you really appreciate what the conditions are truly like.
Coming back by easyJet we were about an hour late. It was foggy and the pilot explained this had caused the delay. Fine! And I’m all for safety. But couldn’t we have had better information?
So to take everything into consideration it wasn’t a bad experience.
Except for the miles you have to walk at Schipol. How much of that is caused because the UK doesn’t belong to the Schengen Agreement, so we get the awkward gates?
We are the only major country in Europe that doesn’t belong to the Agreement. Most think this is correct, but I don’t!