UK CfD Round 4 Offshore Wind Projects Power Forward
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
These are the first two paragraphs.
All 99 contracts offered through the fourth Allocation Round (AR4) of the UK government’s Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme have now been signed and returned to Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC).
A total of 93 individual projects across Britain will now proceed to work with LCCC to meet the contractual milestones specified in the CfD, supporting projects’ development and the delivery of almost 11 GW of clean energy. The first AR4 projects are due to come online in 2023-24.
It does look like it’s a case of all systems go!
In Will We Run Out Of Power This Winter?, I estimated that these Round 4 projects would come onstream as follows.
- 2024 – Round 4 Solar – 125.7 MW
- 2025 – Round 4 Solar – 1958 MW
- 2025 – Round 4 Onshore Wind – 888 MW
- 2025 – Round 4 Energy from Waste – 30 MW
- 2026 – Round 4 Tidal Stream – 5.62 MW
- 2027 – Round 4 Tidal Stream – 35.2 MW
- 2027 – Round 4 Floating Offshore Wind – 32 MW
- 2027 – Round 4 Offshore Wind – 6994 MW
These are totals for the next four years from these contracts.
- 2024 – 125.7 MW
- 2025 – 2876 MW
- 2026 – 5.62 MW
- 2027 – 7061.2 MW
This is a total of over 10 GW.
Is The Morocco-UK Power Project Just A Taste Of The Future?
After writing WSP Lends Hand On Morocco-UK Power Link, about WSP’s involvement in the ambitious project to create a 3.6 GW interconnector to bring power from Morocco to the UK, I’m now certain, that this major project will come to fruition.
Out of curiosity, I created this Google Map of North-West Africa.
Note.
- Morocco is at the North edge of the map.
- The map is filled with the Sahara Desert.
- The Caqnary Islands are off the coast of Africa.
- Three of the least developed countries in the world; Western Sahara, Mauritania and Mali, circle the desert to the South-West and South.
I do wonder if the Morocco-UK Power Project is a success, if other developers and countries will decide to developer their renewable energy resources.
- France, Portugal and Spain may want to get involved.
- High-Temperature Electrolysis boosted by solar energy, could be used to generate hydrogen for shipment to Europe.
- The interconnectors to Europe will be upgraded.
Given the size of the desert, I’m sure that several GW of electricity could be delivered to Europe.
Renewable Power’s Effect On The Tory Leadership Election
I wouldn’t normally comment on the Tory Leadership Election, as I don’t have a vote and my preference has already been eliminated.
But after reading this article on the Telegraph, which is entitled Britain Will Soon Have A Glut Of Cheap Power, And World-Leading Batteries To Store It, I feel I have to comment both about this election and the General Election, that will follow in a few years.
These two paragraphs from the article illustrate the future growth of offshore wind power.
It is a point about the mathematical implications of the UK’s gargantuan push for renewables. Offshore wind capacity is going to increase from 11 to 50 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 under the Government’s latest fast-track plans.
RenewableUK says this country currently has a total of 86GW in the project pipeline. This the most ambitious rollout of offshore wind in the world, ahead of China at 78GW, and the US at 48GW.
If we assume that there is eight years left of this decade, that means that we should install about 4.9 GW of offshore wind every year until 2030. If we add in planned solar and onshore wind developments, we must be looking at at least 5 GW of renewable energy being added every year.
We have also got the 3.26 GW Hinckley Point C coming on stream.
I think we can say, that when it comes to electricity generation, we will not be worried, so Liz and Rishi can leave that one to the engineers.
If we have an electricity problem, it is about distribution and storage.
- We need more interconnectors between where the wind farms are being built and where the electricity will be used.
- National Grid and the Government have published plans for two interconnectors between Scotland and England, which I wrote about in New Electricity ‘Superhighways’ Needed To Cope With Surge In Wind Power.
- We need energy storage to back up the wind and solar power, when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining.
I think it is reasonable to assume, that we will get the interconnectors we need and the Telegraph article puts forward a very feasible and affordable solution to the energy storage problem, which is described in these two paragraphs from the article.
That is now in sight, and one of the world leaders is a British start-up. Highview Power has refined a beautifully simple technology using liquid air stored in insulated steel towers at low pressure.
This cryogenic process cools air to minus 196 degrees using the standard kit for LNG. It compresses the volume 700-fold. The liquid re-expands with a blast of force when heated and drives a turbine, providing dispatchable power with the help of a flywheel.
The article also talks of twenty energy storage systems, spread around the UK.
- They will have a total output of 6 GW.
- In total they will be able to store 600 GWh of electricity.
The first one for Humberside is currently being planned.
Surely, building these wind and solar farms, interconnectors and energy storage systems will cost billions of pounds.
Consider.
- Wind and solar farms get paid for the electricity they generate.
- , Interconnectors get paid for the electricity they transfer.
- Energy storage systems make a profit by buying energy when it’s cheap and selling it, when the price is better.
- In World’s Largest Wind Farm Attracts Huge Backing From Insurance Giant, I talked about how Aviva were funding the world’s largest wind farm at Hornsea.
- National Grid has a history of funding interconnectors like the North Sea Link from large financial institutions.
I believe that the islands of Great Britain and Ireland and the waters around our combined shores will become the largest zero-carbon power station in the world.
This will attract engineering companies and financial institutions from all over the world and we will see a repeat of the rush for energy that we saw for oil and gas in the last century.
If we get the financial regime right, I can see a lot of tax money flowing towards the Exchequer.
The big question will be what do we do with all this energy.
- Some will be converted into hydrogen for transport, the making of zero-carbon steel and cement and for use as a chemical feedstock.
- Industries that use a lot of electricity may move to the UK.
- A large supply of electricity and hydrogen will make it easy to decarbonise housing, offices and factories.
The Telegraph article also says this.
Much can be exported to the Continent through interconnectors for a fat revenue stream, helping to plug the UK’s trade deficit, and helping to rescue Germany from the double folly of nuclear closures and the Putin pact. But there are limits since weather patterns in Britain and Northwest Europe overlap – partially.
I suspect that more energy will be exported to Germany than most economists think, as it will be needed and it will be a nice little earner for the UK.
Given the substantial amount of German investment in our wind industry, I do wonder, if Boris and Olaf did a deal to encourage more German investment, when they met in April this year.
- BP have been backed with their wind farms by a German utility company.
- RWE are developing the Sofia wind farm.
- Only last week, the deal for the NeuConnect interconnector between the Isle of Grain and Wilhelmshaven was signed.
- Siemens have a lot of investments in the UK.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see more German investments in the next few months.
The Golden Hello
Has there ever been a Prime Minister, who will receive such a golden hello, as the one Liz or Rishi will receive in September?
The Tory Leadership Election
Some of the candidates said they would reduce taxes , if they won and Liz Truss is still saying that.
I wonder why Rishi isn’t saying that he would reduce taxes, as he must know the cash flow that is coming. It may be he’s just a more cautious soul.
Will We See More Multi-Country Renewable Energy Deals?
In this blog, I have talked about various deals, where two or more countries and/or companies are getting together to generate electricity in one country and transfer it to another, either as electricity or as hydrogen
Examples include.
- The Asian Renewable Energy Hub, which I first wrote about in Vast Australian Renewable Energy Site Powers BP’s Ambitions.
- The Australia-Asia PowerLink, which I first wrote about in Sun Cable’s Australia-Asia PowerLink.
- Fortescue Future Industries will convert cattle stations in Western Australia into renewable power stations.
- The EuroAfrica Interconnector is a HVDC interconnector and submarine power cable between the Greek, Cypriot, and Egypt power grids, which I first wrote about in The EuroAfrica Interconnector.
- The EuroAsia Interconnector is a proposed HVDC interconnector between the Greek, Cypriot, and Israeli power grids via the world’s longest submarine power cable, which I first wrote about in The EuroAsia Interconnector.
- Icelink is a proposed electricity interconnector between Iceland and Great Britain, which I first wrote about in Is Iceland Part Of The Solution To The Problem Of Russia?
- The Morocco-UK Power Project, which I first wrote about in Moroccan Solar-Plus-Wind To Be Linked To GB In ‘Ground-Breaking’ Xlinks Project.
- Namibian Green Hydrogen, which I first wrote about in Namibia Is Building A Reputation For The Cheapest Green Hydrogen.
There are also all the hydrogen deals done by Fortescue Future Industries.
Where Are There Possibilities Of More Multi-Country Renewable Energy Deals?
These are a few serious possibilities.
Argentina
This is an extract from this page on Wind Energy International, which is entitled Argentina.
Argentina has an estimated technical wind energy potential of 300 GW. In southern Patagonia (Chubut and Santa Cruz provinces), average wind speeds range between 9.0 and 11.2 m/s, whereas in the north (Neuquén and Río Negro provinces), wind speeds range from 7.2 to 8.4 m/s. The general average capacity factor for Argentina is 35% and in the Patagonia region it ranges between as much as 47% and 59%. Especially in Northwest Patagonia, locally known as the Comahue region, hydro and wind may seasonally complement each other and.benefit both technologies. One other promising region for wind power development is the Atlantic sea coast.
As I wrote in Australia’s FFI Plans $8.4 Billion Green Hydrogen Project In Argentina, it appears that Andrew Forrest and FFI are already on the ground.
Australia
There are already three major schemes based on Australia and I am certain they will be more. Especially, as Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Singapore will need the zero-carbon energy.
It would appear that except for the Australia-Asia PowerLink, the energy will be transferred as liquid hydrogen or liquid ammonia.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh wouldn’t be on the lists of many, where ideal countries for renewable energy are being discussed.
But, this report on Energy Tracker Asia is entitled The Renewable Energy Potential of Bangladesh, where this is said.
A report investigating the renewable energy technical capacity of Bangladesh found that the country could deploy up to 156 GW of utility-scale solar on 6,250 km2 of land and 150 GW of wind. Offshore wind power would account for 134 GW of this total capacity.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bangladesh, supplying renewable energy to the East, with international companies and organisations developing the renewable infrastructure.
I think it should be noted that international companies flock to countries, where the investment opportunities are good. That has happened in the UK, with offshore wind, where many wind farms have been developed by companies such as Equinor, Iberola, RWE and Wattenfall.
Chile
Chile has started to develop the 100,000 square kilometres of the Atacama Desert for solar power and I wrote about this in The Power Of Solar With A Large Battery.
This sentence in the Wikipedia entry for Energy In Chile, illustrates the potential of solar power in the Atacama Desert.
In 2013, Total S.A. announced the world’s largest unsubsidised solar farm would be installed with assistance from SunPower Corp into Chile’s Atacama desert.
I also wrote Chile Wants To Export Solar Energy To Asia Via 15,000km Submarine Cable, about Chile’s ambitions to supply Asia with energy.
Ethiopia
Andrew Forrest of Fortescue Future Industries is on the case, as I wrote in Fortescue Future Industries Enters Ethiopia to Produce Green Energy.
North Africa
Consider.
- The major North African countries of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, all have and depend on to a certain extent on fossil fuels.
- There are gas pipelines to Spain and Italy.
- Morocco will be the Southern end of the Morocco-UK Power Project, if it gets developed.
- All five countries have some nuclear power stations.
- All five countries have lots of sun for solar power.
- Some Saharan countries to the South of Morocco, Algeria and Libya could also provide energy from the sun.
- Egypt has substantial hydro-electric power on the River Nile.
- Egypt will be connected to Greece through the EuroAfrica Interconnector.
I believe that a well-designed and co-ordinated project could generate a lot of electricity and hydrogen for Europe and bring much-needed income and employment to North Africa.
I feel that if the Morocco-UK Power Project can be successfully built, then this could create a flurry of activity all over North Africa.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has a problem. As the rest of the world moves away from fossil fuels in the next few decades, they will see the revenues from oil and natural gas come under pressure.
But as a rich country, with 2.15 million km² of land and lots of sun, they must have some potential to generate solar electricity.
In the Wikipedia entry for Solar Power In Saudi Arabia, this is said.
The Saudi agency in charge of developing the nations renewable energy sector, Ka-care, announced in May 2012 that the nation would install 41 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity by 2032.[2] It was projected to be composed of 25 GW of solar thermal, and 16 GW of photovoltaics. At the time of this announcement, Saudi Arabia had only 0.003 gigawatts of installed solar energy capacity. A total of 24 GW of renewable energy was expected by 2020, and 54 GW by 2032.
Wikipedia also says that Saudi Arabia also has nuclear ambitions.
I can see that Saudi Arabia will replace some of their oil and gas exports with green hydrogen.
2.2 GW Of Solar Farms To Be Installed In The UK
This document from the Department of Business, Industry and Industrial Strategy lists all the Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4 results for the supply of zero-carbon electricity that were announced yesterday.
There were sixty-six solar power projects, that totalled up to 2.2 GW, which gives an average size of 33.3 MW.
- Many complain that we don’t have enough sun in this country, so surely solar farms totalling up to 2.2 GW is an astonishing figure.
- For a comparison, Hinckley Point C will supply 3.26 GW.
- In Cleve Hill Solar Park, I wrote about the largest, which will be a 350 MW solar farm with a 700 MWh battery.
- Sixty-one are in England, two are in Wales and surprisingly three are in Scotland, So being that far North isn’t as bad for solar power, as you might think.
- It looks like 251.38 MW are proposed to be installed in 2023/24 and 1958.03 MW in 2024/25.
The Wikipedia entry for Solar Power In The United Kingdom, gives these numbers.
UK solar PV installed capacity at the end of 2017 was 12.8 GW, representing a 3.4% share of total electricity generation. Provisionally, as of the end of January 2019 there was 13,123 MW installed UK solar capacity across 979,983 installations. This is an increase of 323 MW in slightly more than a year. A new record peak generation from photovoltaics was set at 9.68 GW on 20 April 2020.
How many people correctly predicted that the UK would be be generating so much energy from the sun?
How Many Of These Solar Farms Will Be Co-located With Batteries Or Wind Farms?
Consider.
- Cleve Hill Solar Park will be a 350 MW solar farm, that is co-located with a 700 MWh battery.
- Is it significant that the battery could supply 350 MW for two hours?
- It also connects to the grid at the same substation, that connect the London Array offshore wind farm.
- As substations are complicated and probably expensive bits of electrical gubbins, sharing a substation is probably a good idea to save costs.
I hope that companies like wind and solar farm developers, the National Grid and Network Rail talk a lot to each other, so that efficient infrastructure is developed.
Conclusion
Over the years 2023 to 2025, we should develop these solar farms at a rate of around 0.7 GW per year.
Can we sustain that rate in the future or will we run out of land?
Cleve Hill Solar Park
This document from the Department of Business, Industry and Industrial Strategy lists all the Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4 results for the supply of zero-carbon electricity that were announced yesterday.
There were sixty-six solar power projects, that totalled up to 2.2 GW, which gives an average size of 33.3 MW.
I looked at the list and found the following.
- All contracts had the same strike price of £45.99 per MWh.
The largest solar farm with a contract is Cleve Hill Solar Park.
- ,Cleve Hill Solar Park received a contract for 112 MW.
- According to Wikipedia, the solar park will have a battery of 700 MWh.
- Will the battery enable the solar park to supply 112 MW on a twenty-four seven basis?
- According to Wikipedia, solar farms have a capacity factor of about 10 % in the UK.
- The Cleve Hill Solar Park will have a capacity of 350 MW.
- On a typical day, it will generate 350 * 24 *0.1 = 840 MWh
- The Contract for Difference mechanism means they get the strike price for each MWh of electricity up to the level in the contract, which is 112 MW.
- I suspect that for several months of the year, the solar park will be able to supply 112 MW to the grid.
- I do feel that overnight and on sunless winter days, the system will provide a lot less electricity.
- This page on the EMR web site explains Contract for Difference mechanism.
This extract from Wikipedia, describes, the solar park’s connection to the National Grid.
Across the marsh run the 400kV powerlines of the national grid. They are supported by eight 40m pylons. There is a large 150/400kV electricity substation at Cleve Hill, serving the London Array offshore wind farm that lies to the north beyond the mouth of the Thames Estuary. The output from the Solar Farm will use this substation to connect to the grid. Here, a battery array will placed, that will charge from the sunlight during the day and release the energy at night when it is needed.
I can build a table showing the earnings on a per day and per year basis, against average output.
- 20 MW – £22,076.20 per day – £8,057,448 per year
- 50 MW – £55,188 per day – £20,143,620 per year
- 70 MW – £77,263.20 per day – £28,201,068 per year
- 100 MW – £110,376 per day – £40,287,240 per year
- 112 MW – £123,621.12 per day – £45,121,708.80 per year
Note.
- I have assumed the year is 365 days.
- As a time-expired Control Engineer, I know that the battery can be optimised to supply the electricity, when it is needed and the price is highest.
- I wouldn’t be surprised to see co-operation between the London Array and Cleve Hill Solar Farm, as on a sunless but windy day, there may be scope to store excess wind energy in the battery for later release.
On this brief look, it appears that owning a solar farm, can be a nice little-earner.
Thoughts On The Battery
Consider.
- According to Wikipedia, the solar park will have a battery of 700 MWh.
- One of the largest lithium batteries in the UK is the one at Clay Tye in Essex, which is just under 200 MWh.
I suspect that lithium ion batteries will not be used.
Highview Power are building a 250 MWh battery in Manchester.
- This battery will be able to supply 50 MW.
- The batteries use liquid air as an energy storage medium.
- The company says the design can be extended up to a GWh by adding more tanks for the liquid air.
- The only fossil fuels used in Highview’s batteries is probably some lubricating oil.
I feel that a Highview battery or something similar would be an ideal solution at Cleve Hill Solar Farm.
I should be noted that the London Array is a 630 MW wind farm, so the London Array and Cleve Hill Solar Farm have a combined nameplate capacity of 980 MW.
I feel there is a case for a larger battery at the substation, to give the grid an almost-guaranteed GW all day.
It would be large than most if not all gas-fired power stations.
It could be used to balance the grid.
The controlling software would optimise the finances by buying and selling electricity at the right time.
Octopus Energy On Xlinks
Today, Octopus Energy published a web page, which is entitled Backing Cheaper, Greener Energy Globally, giving more details of the Xlinks project.
I first wrote about the tie-up between Octopus Energy and Xlinks in Xlinks Welcomes New Investor Octopus Energy In Providing Cheap Green Power To Over 7 Million Homes.
Points made in the page on the Octopus web page include.
- The project will cover over 570 square miles in Morocco with 7GW of solar and 3.5GW of wind generation alongside a 20GWh battery storage facility.
- This green energy powerhouse will be connected to the UK via 2,361 miles of HVDC subsea cables.
- The cables will be built with British steel in a new factory in Hunterton, Scotland.
- It also appears that the site of the project has been chosen to optimise energy collection.
This project appears to be excellently-thought out to bring large benefits to all stakeholders.
Namibia Proposes Green Hydrogen Supply To EU To Replace Russian Oil And Gas
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on H2 Fuel News.
These paragraphs explain the plan.
The African country has considerable wind and sunshine resources available, providing the opportunity to use renewable energy for the production of H2. Namibia is located along the African South Atlantic coastline and is among the world’s driest countries. Its 3,500 hours of sunshine per year mean that solar panels will be able to absorb a tremendous amount of energy, without much unexpected downtime.
That energy will be used for producing yellow H2, a form of green (renewable) H2 made using electrolysers powered by solar electricity. The electrolyser will split seawater, another abundant resource for the country due to its position on the map. As a result, it has the potential to offer the European Union a clean fuel source that can help it to simultaneously combat the energy crisis and the climate crisis.
Note.
- Liquid hydrogen will be shipped to Europe by tanker.
- I don’t think Vlad the Mad will like the plan!
- How many other countries have the resources like Namibia to become hydrogen exporters?
This plan was proposed at the World Economic Forum at Davos.
Xlinks Welcomes New Investor Octopus Energy In Providing Cheap Green Power To Over 7 Million Homes
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from Xlinks.
These are the first three paragraphs.
Xlinks is pleased to announce a financial and strategic partnership with energy tech pioneer Octopus Energy Group.
The Morocco – UK Power Project will speed up the UK’s transition to net zero by laying four 3,800km-long subsea cables to connect a huge renewable energy farm in the Moroccan desert with Devon in South West England. Morocco is setting its sights on becoming a world leader in solar energy, already boasting some of the world’s largest solar arrays, and meeting two-fifths of its electricity demand with renewables. There will be huge economic benefits to both countries involved, with Xlinks bringing green energy and engineering jobs to both the UK and Morocco.
The project will diversify UK supply routes and boost energy security through the supply of 3.6 GW of reliable, clean power to the UK for an average of 20 hours a day, enough green energy to power about 7 million homes.
Note.
- The cables will be nearly 2,400 miles
- It is scheduled to be operational in 2027.
- Xlinks is expected to deliver power at £48/MWh, which is comparable with offshore wind.
- Wikipedia talks of a Hinkley Point C strike price of £92.50/MWh (in 2012 prices).
- Greg Jackson, founder of Octopus Energy Group, is also a personal investor in the project.
- Greg Jackson is interviewed in this article in today’s Sunday Times.
I wrote more about this project in Moroccan Solar-Plus-Wind To Be Linked To GB In ‘Ground-Breaking’ Xlinks Project.
Conclusion
This mega-project could be approaching the point, where the starting gun is fired.
Poland May Become A Green Hydrogen Tycoon
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Hydrogen Central.
This is the first two paragraphs.
In 2050, Poland may become one of the most competitive producers of green hydrogen in the European Union. In addition, we could export it to other countries, using the already existing infrastructure – e.g. the Yamal gas pipeline.
According to analysts of the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), in the next three decades Poland could become a very competitive producer of green hydrogen. Particularly economically beneficial in Polish conditions would be the production of hydrogen based on energy from onshore wind energy.
Note.
- The Yamal pipeline comes all the way from Siberia.
- The Baltic pipeline will connect Norway and Poland.
- Poland currently has over 7 GW of wind power.
- Wikipedia says this “In 2019, wind was the second most important source of electricity produced in Poland, after coal, and accounted for about 10% of the electricity production.”
- I have been to quite a few parts of Poland and it seems that it can be flat and windy.
- 1.2 GW of offshore wind is under development near Slupsk.
I very much feel that the conclusion of the article could be right.
The Anonymous Widower 