Thoughts On The Mini-Budget
This article on the BBC is entitled At A Glance: What’s In The Mini-Budget?.
If nothing else KK has whipped up a storm, with the most tax-cutting budget in decades.
But!
According to my calculations in Will We Run Out Of Power This Winter?, the planned offshore wind that will be installed between 2022 and 2027 will be at least 19 GW. About 3 GW of this offshore wind is already producing electricity.
To this must be added 3.26 GW for Hinckley Point C, 2 GW for solar and 0.9 GW for onshore wind in Scotland, which will be developed by 2027.
So we have 25.2 GW for starters.
Following on from this is the 27.1 GW from ScotWind, about 4 GW from the Celtic Sea, 3 GW from Morecambe Bay and 10 GW from Aker’s Northern Horizons. All of these are firm projects and some are already being planned in detail.
These wind and solar farms are the collateral for KK’s borrowing.
The corporate tax changes will hopefully attract world class energy and manufacturing companies to set up UK-domiciled subsidiaries to develop more offshore wind farms and manufacture the turbines and the electrical gubbins close to where they will be installed.
As more wind farms are built, many GW of electricity and tonnes of hydrogen will be exported to Europe.
Note that 1 GW for a day costs around £ 960,000 and for a year costs £350.4 million.
A big benefit of all this electricity, will be that we won’t need to frack.
Technologies like green hydrogen, that will be created by electrolysis will reduce our need for gas.
We might develop a gas field like Jackdaw, to give us gas for a backup with a few gas-fired power stations, for when the wind doesn’t blow, but gas will only have a minor roll.
The force of the maths is with KK!
The Future Is Blowing In The Wind
In Can We Move The Equilibrium Point Of The Energy Market?, I have been adding up all of the renewable energy to be commissioned in the next few years.
I am only looking at schemes that are being built or are consulting the public, have contracts and are by reputable and reliable developers, like BP, Equinor, Orsted, Scottish Power, Shell, SSE and Wattenfall
The numbers are not small.
This year 3.2 GW, should be commissioned, with another 2.3 GW in 2023. But the total between now and 2028 is at least 30 GW plus Hinckley Point C. In fact it could be higher, as I have ignored nearly all of the 25 plus GW of the Scotwind projects in the seas around Scotland.
As the UK needs about 23 GW to wash its face and we already have 25.5 GW of renewables installed, by the mid point of the decade, we should be able to reorganise our energy, by cutting gas usage for power generation and exporting surpluses to Europe.
The future is blowing the wind!
Can We Move The Equilibrium Point Of The Energy Market?
Equilibrium In Systems
As a Control Engineer, I believe that most systems eventually end up in a state of equilibrium.
How many football batches have you watched between two evenly-matched teams that have ended, where the statistics are even and the match has ended in a nil-nil draw or a win by one goal.
Now suppose one manager makes an inspired substitution, one important player gets injured or one player gets sent off.
One team will have an advantage, the statistics will no longer be even and one team will probably win.
The equilibrium point will have been shifted.
Zopa’s Stable Peer-to-Peer Lending System
I used Zopa’s peer-to-peer lending system for several years and found it a very stable system, that over the years paid a steady return of between four and five percent before tax.
I even developed a method to maximise my savings income, which I wrote about in The Concept Of Hybrid Banking.
It was a sad day for me, when Zopa closed its ground-breaking peer-to-peer lending system.
As a Control Engineer, I believe that Zopa’s strength was a well-written computerised algorithm, that matched lenders and borrowers and spread the risk.
- There was no bias in the system, introduced by personal prejudices.
- The algorithm was agnostic and judged all borrowers on their profiles and credit ratings alone.
- Money was allocated under fair rules for borrowers.
- I never borrowed from Zopa, but from my experience of owning half of a finance company, their terms were the most customer-friendly I’ve ever seen.
Someone will go back to the basics of peer-to-peer lending and it can’t be soon enough for both savers and borrowers.
Zopa In Troubled Times
Over the years that I invested in Zopa, my returns stayed very much the same, as the algorithm seemed to be able to maintain sufficient difference between lenders’ returns and borrowers’ rates. I also suspect the dynamics of savvy lenders and borrowers helped to stabilise both the system and the difference between rates.
It even worked through the Banking Crisis of 2008 and other mini-hiccups along the way.
My Conclusion About Zopa
As someone, who knows computing well, I would rate Zopa, one of the best computer systems, I’ve ever seen.
But it showed how a large transactional system can work well.
One of the keys to its success and smooth operation was that the computer was totally in control and it took all transaction decisions without direct human intervention.
The Energy Market
The energy market is a network of energy providers and users.
It is controlled by complicated rules and it has settled into an equilibrium, which involves.
- Importation of energy, which I suspect is not at a low price
- Some high priced energy generators, based on gas, which has a high-price, due to Putin’s war.
- Waste of wind energy due to lack of energy storage.
- The intermittency of renewable sources.
- A lack of gas storage, means that we probably get the wrong end of fluctuations in the gas price.
This results in a high price to consumers.
Can We Move The Equilibrium Point Of The Energy Market?
And we also need to move it quickly to a more favourable place, which benefits everybody!
As a Control Engineer, I believe that there are five ways to move the equilibrium point.
- Stop Putin’s war.
- Increase gas storage.
- Generate more low-cost electricity.
- Increase electricity storage.
- Improve the control algorithm.
I will now look at each in more detail.
Stopping Putin’s War
Giving in to Putin’s ambitions, would be an easy way to solve our energy crisis. But at what cost?
My parents generation, watched as Nazi Germany took over Austria and Czechoslovakia, whilst the world did nothing.
- We mustn’t repeat that mistake.
- We must not flinch in our support of the Ukraine.
- We must be ready to support Moldova, Finland and the Baltic States if Putin expands his ambitions.
I do wonder, if Boris will turn up with Churchillian-style anti-Putin rhetoric all over Eastern Europe.
Increasing Gas Storage
The major gas storage facility is Rough, which is handily close to the Easington gas terminal.
The facility needs maintenance and this paragraph from the Wikipedia entry gives the current status.
In May 2022, the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Kwasi Kwarteng, began talks with the site’s owners with a view to reopening the site to help ease the ongoing cost-of-living crisis in the United Kingdom. In June 2022, owners Centrica submitted an application to the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), the licencing authority for the UK Government, to reopen the facility. Approval was granted in July. Subsequently, Centrica indicated that they are working hard to restore storage operations at Rough which would depend on securing subsidies from the British government. Centrica was aiming to have some capacity available for the winter of 2022/23 against an overall plan to increase storage capacity gradually over time.
Note.
- Rough can store around 2832 million cubic metres of gas.
- This article on Energy Live News is entitled Reopening Of Rough Storage Gets The All-Clear.
Less well-known is SSE and Equinor’s Aldborough Gas Storage.
These three paragraphs from SSE web site, describe the gas storage.
The Aldbrough Gas Storage facility, in East Yorkshire, officially opened in June 2011. The last of the nine caverns entered commercial operation in November 2012.
The facility, which is a joint venture between SSE Thermal (66%) and Equinor, has the capacity to store around 330 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas.
SSE Thermal and Equinor have consent to increase the storage capacity at the Aldbrough site (Aldbrough Phase 2) and during the last couple of years have been working to involve the local community where appropriate to refine aspects of this project, which has not been progressed to date due to market conditions.
Future plans for the facility, may include converting it to one of the world’s largest hydrogen stores.
In the grand scheme of things, Rough and Aldborough, when you consider that the UK uses 211 million cubic metres of gas every day, will only keep us going for a few days.
But it should be noted, that the Easington gas terminal is connected to the Norwegian gas fields, by the Langeled pipeline.
So Yorkshire and Humberside will be alright.
Generating More Low-Cost Electricity
The only low-cost electricity of any size to come on stream will be wind-power.
This article on Renewables Now is entitled UK Hits 25.5 GW Of Wind Power Capacity.
These wind farms seem to be coming on stream soon or have been commissioned recently.
- Dogger Bank A – 1200 MW – Commissioning 2023 expected
- Dogger Bank B – 1200 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
- Dogger Bank C – 1200 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
- Hornsea Two – 1386 MW – Commissioned 2022
- Moray East – 950 MW – Commissioning 2022 expected
- Neart Na Gaoithe – 450 MW – Commissioning 2024 expected
- Seagreen – 1075 MW – Commissioning 2023 expected
- Triton Knoll – 857 MW – Commissioning 2022 expected
That is expected to be over 5 GW of offshore wind by the end of 2023.
In case there is some double counting, I’ll only say that wind power capacity could be near to 30 GW by December 2023, with perhaps another 3 GW by December 2024.
Other large wind farms in the future include.
- Berwick Bank – 4100 MW – Commissioning 2028 expected
- East Anglia Two – 900 MW – Commissioning 2026 expected
- East Anglia Three – 1400 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Inch Cape Phase 1 – 1080 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Hornsea Three – 2800 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Moray West – 294 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Morgan and Mona – 3000 MW – Commissioning for 2028 expected
- Morven – 2900 MW – Commissioning for 2028 expected
- Norfolk Boreas – 1400 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Norfolk Vanguard – 1400 MW – Construction start planned for 2023
- Sofia – 1400 MW – Commissioning 2026 expected
That is over 14 GW of wind power.
I should also take note of solar and onshore wind power detailed in this document from the Department of Business, Industry and Industrial Strategy that lists all the Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4 results for the supply of zero-carbon electricity.
It gives these figures and dates.
- Solar – 251 MW – Commissioning 2023/24 expected
- Solar – 1958 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
- Onshore Wind – 888 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
I can now build a yearly table of renewables likely to be commissioned in each year.
- 2022 – 3193 MW
- 2023 – 2275 MW
- 2024 – 701 MW
- 2025 – 5246 MW
- 2026 – 2300 MW
- 2027 – 6974 MW
- 2028 – 11400 MW
Note.
- Where a double date has been given, I’m taking the latter date.
- I have assumed that Norfolk Vanguard will be commissioned in 2028.
- I have ignored Hinckley Point C, which should add 3.26 GW in mid-2027.
- I have only taken into account one of the Scotwind wind farms in Scotland, some of which could be commissioned by 2028.
- I have assumed that BP’s Mona, Morgan and Morven will all be commissioned by 2028.
This is a total of 32 GW or an average of nearly 5 GW per year.
Increasing Electricity Storage
Big schemes like the 1.5 GW/ 30 GWh Coire Glas and 600 MW Cruachan 2 will help, but with 32 GW of renewable energy to be installed before 2028 and energy prices rocketing, we need substantial energy storage in the next couple of years.
One feasible plan that has been put forward is that of Highview Power’s CEO; Rupert Pearce,, that I wrote about in Highview Power’s Plan To Add Energy Storage To The UK Power Network.
The plan is to build twenty of Highview Power’s CRYOBatteries around the country.
- Each CRYOBattery will be able to store 30 GWh.
- Each CRYOBattery will be one of the largest batteries in the world.
- They will have three times the storage of the pumped storage hydroelectric power station at Dinorwig.
- They will be able to supply 2.5 GW for twelve hours, which is more output than Sizewell B nuclear power station.
Note.
- The first 30 GWh CRYOBattery is planned to be operational by late 2024.
- 600 GWh distributed around the country would probably be sufficient.
I believe that as these batteries are made from standard proven components, they could be built fairly quickly.
Paying For The Energy Storage
This press release from Highview Power is entitled New Analysis Reveals Extent Of UK Renewable Energy Waste, which makes these three bullet points.
- Enough renewable energy to power 500,000 homes a day wasted since the energy crisis began.
- 8 out of 10 Britons want more investment in boosting Britain’s energy resilience.
- UK spent £390 million turning off wind farms and using gas since September 2021.
Note.
- As the press release was published in July 2022, was the £390 million for ten months.
- Will this level of spend continue, as we’re not creating any electricity storage or building any factories that will start in a year or so, that will need large amounts of electricity?
- The Germans are at least building the NeuConnect interconnector between the Isle of Grain and Wilhelmshaven.
- As we’re adding up to 5 GW per year to our renewable energy systems, this problem will surely get worse and we’ll spend more money switching off wind turbines.
We have the money to build a very large amount of energy storage.
Improving The Control Algorithm
A better control algorithm would always help and politicians should only be allowed to set objectives.
Conclusion
There is a chance we’ll have an oversupply of electricity, but this will have effects in the UK.
- Gas-fired power-stations will be retired from front-line service to produce electricity.
- Some will question the need for nuclear power.
- Gas may even be used selectively to provide carbon dioxide for agricultural, scientific and industrial processes.
- Industries that need a lot of electricity may build factories in the UK.
- We will have a large supply of green hydrogen.
But it should bring the price of electricity down.
SSE Renewables Completes Acquisition Of European Renewable Energy Development Platform
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from SSE.
This paragraph introduces the deal.
SSE Renewables has completed the transaction with Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy (SGRE) to acquire its existing European renewable energy development platform for a consideration of €580m.
I have a few thoughts.
Why Have Siemens Gamesa Sold Their European Renewable Energy Development Platform?
This article on Renewables Now is entitled Siemens Gamesa Wraps Up Sale Of 3.9-GW Wind Portfolio To SSE Renewables, gives a reason.
For the turbine maker, the sale represents one of the measures implemented to rein in profit losses quarter after quarter due to internal challenges, high costs and supply chain issues.
As with many things, it appears to be all about the money.
Can SSE Renewables Afford It?
Consider.
- SSE are developing the 1.5 GW/30 GWh Coire Glas pumped stored hydroelectric power station. I doubt the cost of that will be under a billion pounds.
- SSE developed the 0.5 GW Greater Gabbard wind farm and that development cost £1.5 billion
- SSE Renewables and Equinor are estimated on the web to be investing £9 billion in the Dogger Bank wind farm, which could deliver 3.6 GW.
- SSE Renewables have just announced the 4.1 GW Berwick Bank wind farm, which must need at least £9 billion.
SSE seem to have found a Scottish magic money tree.
€580m is just small change.
What Projects Are Included In The Deal?
This is a paragraph from the press release.
The SGRE portfolio includes c.3.8GW of onshore wind development projects – around half of which is located in Spain with the remainder across France, Italy and Greece – with scope for up to 1.4GW of additional co-located solar development opportunities. Development of the portfolio of projects has continued to progress since the acquisition was announced in April, with additional opportunities identified and permits and grid connections advancing. Over 2GW of the total pipeline is considered to be at a secured stage, where a grid connection or land agreement has been secured or relevant permits granted.
Note.
- As an engineer, I note that there is no offshore wind, which surely is the renewable energy development with most risk and installation costs.
- SSE Renewables have a lot of experience of onshore wind, so delivering and financing the extra 3.8 GW, shouldn’t be a problem.
- The 1.4 GW of solar comes with the word co-located. Wind and solar together, perhaps with a battery must surely be a good investment in the sunnier climes of Europe.
It doesn’t look to me that SSE Renewables have bought a load of assets that no-one wants.
I do wonder thought, if Siemens Gamesa were having trouble progressing this large diverse portfolio of projects, due to a shortage of resources like money and engineers.
So are SSE finishing off a few projects and they can transfer a few engineers to these projects?
Are SSE Spreading The Risk?
SSE operate mainly in the UK and Ireland, so is adding Spain, France, Italy and Greece a good idea?
Of the four new countries, it’s unlikely that all will perform well, but a mixed portfolio is usually a good idea.
Will SSE Renewables Buy Siemens Gamesa Turbines In The Future?
SSE Renewables seem to do an individual deal on each wind farm, as no one manufacturer dominates.
But now Siemens Gamesa may be more financially stable, perhaps they can get a better deal for the turbines they want.
Conclusion
I don’t think SSE Renewables have done a bad deal.
UK CfD Round 4 Offshore Wind Projects Power Forward
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
These are the first two paragraphs.
All 99 contracts offered through the fourth Allocation Round (AR4) of the UK government’s Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme have now been signed and returned to Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC).
A total of 93 individual projects across Britain will now proceed to work with LCCC to meet the contractual milestones specified in the CfD, supporting projects’ development and the delivery of almost 11 GW of clean energy. The first AR4 projects are due to come online in 2023-24.
It does look like it’s a case of all systems go!
In Will We Run Out Of Power This Winter?, I estimated that these Round 4 projects would come onstream as follows.
- 2024 – Round 4 Solar – 125.7 MW
- 2025 – Round 4 Solar – 1958 MW
- 2025 – Round 4 Onshore Wind – 888 MW
- 2025 – Round 4 Energy from Waste – 30 MW
- 2026 – Round 4 Tidal Stream – 5.62 MW
- 2027 – Round 4 Tidal Stream – 35.2 MW
- 2027 – Round 4 Floating Offshore Wind – 32 MW
- 2027 – Round 4 Offshore Wind – 6994 MW
These are totals for the next four years from these contracts.
- 2024 – 125.7 MW
- 2025 – 2876 MW
- 2026 – 5.62 MW
- 2027 – 7061.2 MW
This is a total of over 10 GW.
Is The Morocco-UK Power Project Just A Taste Of The Future?
After writing WSP Lends Hand On Morocco-UK Power Link, about WSP’s involvement in the ambitious project to create a 3.6 GW interconnector to bring power from Morocco to the UK, I’m now certain, that this major project will come to fruition.
Out of curiosity, I created this Google Map of North-West Africa.
Note.
- Morocco is at the North edge of the map.
- The map is filled with the Sahara Desert.
- The Caqnary Islands are off the coast of Africa.
- Three of the least developed countries in the world; Western Sahara, Mauritania and Mali, circle the desert to the South-West and South.
I do wonder if the Morocco-UK Power Project is a success, if other developers and countries will decide to developer their renewable energy resources.
- France, Portugal and Spain may want to get involved.
- High-Temperature Electrolysis boosted by solar energy, could be used to generate hydrogen for shipment to Europe.
- The interconnectors to Europe will be upgraded.
Given the size of the desert, I’m sure that several GW of electricity could be delivered to Europe.
Renewable Power’s Effect On The Tory Leadership Election
I wouldn’t normally comment on the Tory Leadership Election, as I don’t have a vote and my preference has already been eliminated.
But after reading this article on the Telegraph, which is entitled Britain Will Soon Have A Glut Of Cheap Power, And World-Leading Batteries To Store It, I feel I have to comment both about this election and the General Election, that will follow in a few years.
These two paragraphs from the article illustrate the future growth of offshore wind power.
It is a point about the mathematical implications of the UK’s gargantuan push for renewables. Offshore wind capacity is going to increase from 11 to 50 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 under the Government’s latest fast-track plans.
RenewableUK says this country currently has a total of 86GW in the project pipeline. This the most ambitious rollout of offshore wind in the world, ahead of China at 78GW, and the US at 48GW.
If we assume that there is eight years left of this decade, that means that we should install about 4.9 GW of offshore wind every year until 2030. If we add in planned solar and onshore wind developments, we must be looking at at least 5 GW of renewable energy being added every year.
We have also got the 3.26 GW Hinckley Point C coming on stream.
I think we can say, that when it comes to electricity generation, we will not be worried, so Liz and Rishi can leave that one to the engineers.
If we have an electricity problem, it is about distribution and storage.
- We need more interconnectors between where the wind farms are being built and where the electricity will be used.
- National Grid and the Government have published plans for two interconnectors between Scotland and England, which I wrote about in New Electricity ‘Superhighways’ Needed To Cope With Surge In Wind Power.
- We need energy storage to back up the wind and solar power, when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining.
I think it is reasonable to assume, that we will get the interconnectors we need and the Telegraph article puts forward a very feasible and affordable solution to the energy storage problem, which is described in these two paragraphs from the article.
That is now in sight, and one of the world leaders is a British start-up. Highview Power has refined a beautifully simple technology using liquid air stored in insulated steel towers at low pressure.
This cryogenic process cools air to minus 196 degrees using the standard kit for LNG. It compresses the volume 700-fold. The liquid re-expands with a blast of force when heated and drives a turbine, providing dispatchable power with the help of a flywheel.
The article also talks of twenty energy storage systems, spread around the UK.
- They will have a total output of 6 GW.
- In total they will be able to store 600 GWh of electricity.
The first one for Humberside is currently being planned.
Surely, building these wind and solar farms, interconnectors and energy storage systems will cost billions of pounds.
Consider.
- Wind and solar farms get paid for the electricity they generate.
- , Interconnectors get paid for the electricity they transfer.
- Energy storage systems make a profit by buying energy when it’s cheap and selling it, when the price is better.
- In World’s Largest Wind Farm Attracts Huge Backing From Insurance Giant, I talked about how Aviva were funding the world’s largest wind farm at Hornsea.
- National Grid has a history of funding interconnectors like the North Sea Link from large financial institutions.
I believe that the islands of Great Britain and Ireland and the waters around our combined shores will become the largest zero-carbon power station in the world.
This will attract engineering companies and financial institutions from all over the world and we will see a repeat of the rush for energy that we saw for oil and gas in the last century.
If we get the financial regime right, I can see a lot of tax money flowing towards the Exchequer.
The big question will be what do we do with all this energy.
- Some will be converted into hydrogen for transport, the making of zero-carbon steel and cement and for use as a chemical feedstock.
- Industries that use a lot of electricity may move to the UK.
- A large supply of electricity and hydrogen will make it easy to decarbonise housing, offices and factories.
The Telegraph article also says this.
Much can be exported to the Continent through interconnectors for a fat revenue stream, helping to plug the UK’s trade deficit, and helping to rescue Germany from the double folly of nuclear closures and the Putin pact. But there are limits since weather patterns in Britain and Northwest Europe overlap – partially.
I suspect that more energy will be exported to Germany than most economists think, as it will be needed and it will be a nice little earner for the UK.
Given the substantial amount of German investment in our wind industry, I do wonder, if Boris and Olaf did a deal to encourage more German investment, when they met in April this year.
- BP have been backed with their wind farms by a German utility company.
- RWE are developing the Sofia wind farm.
- Only last week, the deal for the NeuConnect interconnector between the Isle of Grain and Wilhelmshaven was signed.
- Siemens have a lot of investments in the UK.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see more German investments in the next few months.
The Golden Hello
Has there ever been a Prime Minister, who will receive such a golden hello, as the one Liz or Rishi will receive in September?
The Tory Leadership Election
Some of the candidates said they would reduce taxes , if they won and Liz Truss is still saying that.
I wonder why Rishi isn’t saying that he would reduce taxes, as he must know the cash flow that is coming. It may be he’s just a more cautious soul.
Will We See More Multi-Country Renewable Energy Deals?
In this blog, I have talked about various deals, where two or more countries and/or companies are getting together to generate electricity in one country and transfer it to another, either as electricity or as hydrogen
Examples include.
- The Asian Renewable Energy Hub, which I first wrote about in Vast Australian Renewable Energy Site Powers BP’s Ambitions.
- The Australia-Asia PowerLink, which I first wrote about in Sun Cable’s Australia-Asia PowerLink.
- Fortescue Future Industries will convert cattle stations in Western Australia into renewable power stations.
- The EuroAfrica Interconnector is a HVDC interconnector and submarine power cable between the Greek, Cypriot, and Egypt power grids, which I first wrote about in The EuroAfrica Interconnector.
- The EuroAsia Interconnector is a proposed HVDC interconnector between the Greek, Cypriot, and Israeli power grids via the world’s longest submarine power cable, which I first wrote about in The EuroAsia Interconnector.
- Icelink is a proposed electricity interconnector between Iceland and Great Britain, which I first wrote about in Is Iceland Part Of The Solution To The Problem Of Russia?
- The Morocco-UK Power Project, which I first wrote about in Moroccan Solar-Plus-Wind To Be Linked To GB In ‘Ground-Breaking’ Xlinks Project.
- Namibian Green Hydrogen, which I first wrote about in Namibia Is Building A Reputation For The Cheapest Green Hydrogen.
There are also all the hydrogen deals done by Fortescue Future Industries.
Where Are There Possibilities Of More Multi-Country Renewable Energy Deals?
These are a few serious possibilities.
Argentina
This is an extract from this page on Wind Energy International, which is entitled Argentina.
Argentina has an estimated technical wind energy potential of 300 GW. In southern Patagonia (Chubut and Santa Cruz provinces), average wind speeds range between 9.0 and 11.2 m/s, whereas in the north (Neuquén and Río Negro provinces), wind speeds range from 7.2 to 8.4 m/s. The general average capacity factor for Argentina is 35% and in the Patagonia region it ranges between as much as 47% and 59%. Especially in Northwest Patagonia, locally known as the Comahue region, hydro and wind may seasonally complement each other and.benefit both technologies. One other promising region for wind power development is the Atlantic sea coast.
As I wrote in Australia’s FFI Plans $8.4 Billion Green Hydrogen Project In Argentina, it appears that Andrew Forrest and FFI are already on the ground.
Australia
There are already three major schemes based on Australia and I am certain they will be more. Especially, as Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Singapore will need the zero-carbon energy.
It would appear that except for the Australia-Asia PowerLink, the energy will be transferred as liquid hydrogen or liquid ammonia.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh wouldn’t be on the lists of many, where ideal countries for renewable energy are being discussed.
But, this report on Energy Tracker Asia is entitled The Renewable Energy Potential of Bangladesh, where this is said.
A report investigating the renewable energy technical capacity of Bangladesh found that the country could deploy up to 156 GW of utility-scale solar on 6,250 km2 of land and 150 GW of wind. Offshore wind power would account for 134 GW of this total capacity.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bangladesh, supplying renewable energy to the East, with international companies and organisations developing the renewable infrastructure.
I think it should be noted that international companies flock to countries, where the investment opportunities are good. That has happened in the UK, with offshore wind, where many wind farms have been developed by companies such as Equinor, Iberola, RWE and Wattenfall.
Chile
Chile has started to develop the 100,000 square kilometres of the Atacama Desert for solar power and I wrote about this in The Power Of Solar With A Large Battery.
This sentence in the Wikipedia entry for Energy In Chile, illustrates the potential of solar power in the Atacama Desert.
In 2013, Total S.A. announced the world’s largest unsubsidised solar farm would be installed with assistance from SunPower Corp into Chile’s Atacama desert.
I also wrote Chile Wants To Export Solar Energy To Asia Via 15,000km Submarine Cable, about Chile’s ambitions to supply Asia with energy.
Ethiopia
Andrew Forrest of Fortescue Future Industries is on the case, as I wrote in Fortescue Future Industries Enters Ethiopia to Produce Green Energy.
North Africa
Consider.
- The major North African countries of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, all have and depend on to a certain extent on fossil fuels.
- There are gas pipelines to Spain and Italy.
- Morocco will be the Southern end of the Morocco-UK Power Project, if it gets developed.
- All five countries have some nuclear power stations.
- All five countries have lots of sun for solar power.
- Some Saharan countries to the South of Morocco, Algeria and Libya could also provide energy from the sun.
- Egypt has substantial hydro-electric power on the River Nile.
- Egypt will be connected to Greece through the EuroAfrica Interconnector.
I believe that a well-designed and co-ordinated project could generate a lot of electricity and hydrogen for Europe and bring much-needed income and employment to North Africa.
I feel that if the Morocco-UK Power Project can be successfully built, then this could create a flurry of activity all over North Africa.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has a problem. As the rest of the world moves away from fossil fuels in the next few decades, they will see the revenues from oil and natural gas come under pressure.
But as a rich country, with 2.15 million km² of land and lots of sun, they must have some potential to generate solar electricity.
In the Wikipedia entry for Solar Power In Saudi Arabia, this is said.
The Saudi agency in charge of developing the nations renewable energy sector, Ka-care, announced in May 2012 that the nation would install 41 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity by 2032.[2] It was projected to be composed of 25 GW of solar thermal, and 16 GW of photovoltaics. At the time of this announcement, Saudi Arabia had only 0.003 gigawatts of installed solar energy capacity. A total of 24 GW of renewable energy was expected by 2020, and 54 GW by 2032.
Wikipedia also says that Saudi Arabia also has nuclear ambitions.
I can see that Saudi Arabia will replace some of their oil and gas exports with green hydrogen.
2.2 GW Of Solar Farms To Be Installed In The UK
This document from the Department of Business, Industry and Industrial Strategy lists all the Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4 results for the supply of zero-carbon electricity that were announced yesterday.
There were sixty-six solar power projects, that totalled up to 2.2 GW, which gives an average size of 33.3 MW.
- Many complain that we don’t have enough sun in this country, so surely solar farms totalling up to 2.2 GW is an astonishing figure.
- For a comparison, Hinckley Point C will supply 3.26 GW.
- In Cleve Hill Solar Park, I wrote about the largest, which will be a 350 MW solar farm with a 700 MWh battery.
- Sixty-one are in England, two are in Wales and surprisingly three are in Scotland, So being that far North isn’t as bad for solar power, as you might think.
- It looks like 251.38 MW are proposed to be installed in 2023/24 and 1958.03 MW in 2024/25.
The Wikipedia entry for Solar Power In The United Kingdom, gives these numbers.
UK solar PV installed capacity at the end of 2017 was 12.8 GW, representing a 3.4% share of total electricity generation. Provisionally, as of the end of January 2019 there was 13,123 MW installed UK solar capacity across 979,983 installations. This is an increase of 323 MW in slightly more than a year. A new record peak generation from photovoltaics was set at 9.68 GW on 20 April 2020.
How many people correctly predicted that the UK would be be generating so much energy from the sun?
How Many Of These Solar Farms Will Be Co-located With Batteries Or Wind Farms?
Consider.
- Cleve Hill Solar Park will be a 350 MW solar farm, that is co-located with a 700 MWh battery.
- Is it significant that the battery could supply 350 MW for two hours?
- It also connects to the grid at the same substation, that connect the London Array offshore wind farm.
- As substations are complicated and probably expensive bits of electrical gubbins, sharing a substation is probably a good idea to save costs.
I hope that companies like wind and solar farm developers, the National Grid and Network Rail talk a lot to each other, so that efficient infrastructure is developed.
Conclusion
Over the years 2023 to 2025, we should develop these solar farms at a rate of around 0.7 GW per year.
Can we sustain that rate in the future or will we run out of land?
Cleve Hill Solar Park
This document from the Department of Business, Industry and Industrial Strategy lists all the Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4 results for the supply of zero-carbon electricity that were announced yesterday.
There were sixty-six solar power projects, that totalled up to 2.2 GW, which gives an average size of 33.3 MW.
I looked at the list and found the following.
- All contracts had the same strike price of £45.99 per MWh.
The largest solar farm with a contract is Cleve Hill Solar Park.
- ,Cleve Hill Solar Park received a contract for 112 MW.
- According to Wikipedia, the solar park will have a battery of 700 MWh.
- Will the battery enable the solar park to supply 112 MW on a twenty-four seven basis?
- According to Wikipedia, solar farms have a capacity factor of about 10 % in the UK.
- The Cleve Hill Solar Park will have a capacity of 350 MW.
- On a typical day, it will generate 350 * 24 *0.1 = 840 MWh
- The Contract for Difference mechanism means they get the strike price for each MWh of electricity up to the level in the contract, which is 112 MW.
- I suspect that for several months of the year, the solar park will be able to supply 112 MW to the grid.
- I do feel that overnight and on sunless winter days, the system will provide a lot less electricity.
- This page on the EMR web site explains Contract for Difference mechanism.
This extract from Wikipedia, describes, the solar park’s connection to the National Grid.
Across the marsh run the 400kV powerlines of the national grid. They are supported by eight 40m pylons. There is a large 150/400kV electricity substation at Cleve Hill, serving the London Array offshore wind farm that lies to the north beyond the mouth of the Thames Estuary. The output from the Solar Farm will use this substation to connect to the grid. Here, a battery array will placed, that will charge from the sunlight during the day and release the energy at night when it is needed.
I can build a table showing the earnings on a per day and per year basis, against average output.
- 20 MW – £22,076.20 per day – £8,057,448 per year
- 50 MW – £55,188 per day – £20,143,620 per year
- 70 MW – £77,263.20 per day – £28,201,068 per year
- 100 MW – £110,376 per day – £40,287,240 per year
- 112 MW – £123,621.12 per day – £45,121,708.80 per year
Note.
- I have assumed the year is 365 days.
- As a time-expired Control Engineer, I know that the battery can be optimised to supply the electricity, when it is needed and the price is highest.
- I wouldn’t be surprised to see co-operation between the London Array and Cleve Hill Solar Farm, as on a sunless but windy day, there may be scope to store excess wind energy in the battery for later release.
On this brief look, it appears that owning a solar farm, can be a nice little-earner.
Thoughts On The Battery
Consider.
- According to Wikipedia, the solar park will have a battery of 700 MWh.
- One of the largest lithium batteries in the UK is the one at Clay Tye in Essex, which is just under 200 MWh.
I suspect that lithium ion batteries will not be used.
Highview Power are building a 250 MWh battery in Manchester.
- This battery will be able to supply 50 MW.
- The batteries use liquid air as an energy storage medium.
- The company says the design can be extended up to a GWh by adding more tanks for the liquid air.
- The only fossil fuels used in Highview’s batteries is probably some lubricating oil.
I feel that a Highview battery or something similar would be an ideal solution at Cleve Hill Solar Farm.
I should be noted that the London Array is a 630 MW wind farm, so the London Array and Cleve Hill Solar Farm have a combined nameplate capacity of 980 MW.
I feel there is a case for a larger battery at the substation, to give the grid an almost-guaranteed GW all day.
It would be large than most if not all gas-fired power stations.
It could be used to balance the grid.
The controlling software would optimise the finances by buying and selling electricity at the right time.
The Anonymous Widower 