AstraZeneca May Explain Britain’s Lower Death Rate
The title for this post, is the same as that of this article on the The Times.
These are the second and third paragraph of the article.
Dr Clive Dix said he believed that the jab could help to stave off serious Covid-19 illness for longer than RNA-based alternatives made by Pfizer and Moderna. “If you look across Europe, with the rise in cases, there’s also a corresponding lagged rise in deaths, but not in the UK,” he told The Daily Telegraph. “I personally believe that’s because most of our vulnerable people were given the AstraZeneca vaccine.”
Dix suggested that the T cell response to the AstraZeneca jab may explain the lower level of hospital admissions and deaths.
Dr, Clive Dix is a former Deputy Chair of the Vaccines Taskforce.
I think that Dr. Dix may have a point.
I am coeliac and I know I have a strong immune system.
When I had my dose of AstraZeneca vaccine, I was fairly sure that my immune system gave the viral vector vaccine a good kicking, as it thought the chimpanzee adenovirus on which it is based could be a dangerous intruder.
But with the second dose, I got no reaction. Had my immune system decided that the vaccine was a friend?
I have mentioned this reaction to people and I have found some coeliacs, who had a similar reaction to the one that I had with the AstraZeneca vaccine.
But more significantly, this summer, I suffered badly from hay fever. My GP told me that the high level could have been because the AstraZeneca vaccine had boosted my immune system.
I’ve only had it as bad once before and I suspect that was a couple of years after I went gluten-free, after being diagnosed as a coeliac. I suspect that that would have boosted my immune system.
I can do a small calculation.
I suspect, that there are about 40,000,000 in the UK who have been vaccinated with two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
If we assume coeliacs are 1-in-100 of the population, as stated on this page on the NHS web site, and most have been vaccinated, as they tend to be cautious about their food and health, that equates to 400,000 people who could be fully vaccinated and have an immune system with all the defensive strength of a whole regiment of special forces soldiers on steroids.
For some time now, various sources have been saying the models of the pandemic aren’t right.
I do wonder, if coeliacs with the AstraZeneca vaccine are super-immune and they are skewing the models. After all 400,000 with a super-immunity is a large number in comparison to the total number of deaths from the Covids in the UK, which stood at 171,801 with the Covids on their death certificate tonight.
Conclusion
I am drawn to one big conclusion and that is more research needs to be done.
It would be a great help, if we knew how many coeliacs on long-term gluten-free diets had ended up in hospital.
I wouldn’t ask the doctors, but the catering departments, who would be providing the gluten-free food, that the coeliacs will be demanding.
Infection, Mortality And Severity Of Covid-19 In Coeliac Disease – Prof Jonas Ludvigsson
The title of this post is the same as that of this presentation on the Coeliac UK web site.
If you are coeliac and worried about catching the Covids, I suggest you watch the presentation.
The presentation is about eighteen minutes long and this is the last-but-one screen.
Coeliac Disease and Covid-19
- No increased risk of death from Covid-19
- No increased risk of ICU for Covid-19
- No increased risk of any (!) Covid-19
THEN: Coeliac patients with Covid-19, have no increased risk of death compared to other patients with Covid-19.
Conclusion
The professor concludes it is good news and there is no need for coeliac patients to get the jab earlier than other people.
I would also like to add my fourpennyworth!
The professor was only analysing diagnosed coeliacs, who were probably on a long-term gluten-free diet.
My son was an undiagnosed coeliac, who lived the rock and roll lifestyle, generally living on ciggies, high-strength cannabis and Subways. His immune system, probably gave him all the protection of a plastic colander.
He died at just 37 from pancreatic cancer.
Covid in Wales: Groups Of Six Allowed To Meet In Pubs
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the first paragraph.
Groups of no more than six people will be allowed to meet in pubs, cinemas and restaurants in Wales from 26 December, the first minister has said.
I’m glad I don’t live in a nanny socialist state like Wales.
We should be treated like adults and allowed to develop our own rules.
- I am doubly-vaccinated with AstraZeneca
- I have recently had a booster Pfizer vaccine.
- I generally wear a mask, when I’m outside my house.
- I avoid crowded places when I’m outside my house.
- I only invite a selected group of people into my house.
- I obey social distancing rules.
But my biggest protection comes from being coeliac on a long-term gluten free diet, which gives me an immune system, which is immensely strong.
I’ve yet to meet or hear of any coeliac on a long-term gluten-free diet, who has had a serious dose of the Covids.
Are Vaccinators Scraping The Bottom Of The Barrel?
Yesterday, the vaccinations given were as follows.
- First – 3123
- Second – 4871
- Booster – 121439
Boosters still seem to be jabbing away, but first and second appear to have dropped off a cliff.
According to worldometer, the UK population is estimated at 68,411,061.
As 51,364,110 have had the first vaccination, that means that 17,046,951 or around 25 % of the UK population have not received any vaccination at all.
From this page on Statista, my rough estimate is that there are about twelve million in the UK under twelve.
I have used twelve as those over that age can be vaccinated according to this page on the NHS web site.
I suspect there are about five million in the UK or around seven percent of the over-12 UK population have not received any vaccination at all.
Are there that number of anti-vaxxers in the UK?
It now appears that I jumped the gun and the statistics were wrong.
This important data is not up to the quality I expect!
I suppose it is understandable as sums isn’t part of the PPE degree at Oxbridge.
The Operated On Left Eye Is Working Well
I have just completed The Times Deadly Killer Sudoku in forty minutes on the phone using only my left eye. It certainly works better than it did.
I’m actually doing most typing on my phone using the left eye as it is much better than the right.
The wonders of modern surgery. And all paid for by the NHS in a private hospital.
Germans Turn To Humour In ‘Spritzkrieg’ On Antivaxers
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on The Times.
A German television show has proposed a plan to persuade far-right antivaxers to get jabbed by offering them free swastika-shaped Bratwursts, dressing staff up as Nazi nurses and calling the vaccination centre Spritzkrieg (Jab War).
Reading the article it sounds like the Germans have asked Mel Brooks for advice.
We should use humour much more against the covids. Or does it have protection under the Virus Rights Act?
The Times says there is a clip on YouTube, but I can’t find it.
Thanks to Robin, here is the video.
If there was an British mockumentary in the same vein perhaps Call The Midwife or Casualty should be given the Blackadder treatment?
Was The Name Omicron For This Variant Of The Covids Chosen Deliberately?
We are trained to respond to single-word commands as are our pets and other animals. But then some animals and especially birds have alarm calls, when one sees danger.
Before omicron, we’ve had alpha, beta, gamma and delta variants of Covid-19, so surely, if they were following the Greek alphabet, epsilon, zeta, eta, theta, iota, kappa, lambda, mu, nu and xi all should have had precedence.
Consider.
- Perhaps zeta, eta and theta could get misheard when spoken.
- iota might be difficult for some to pronounce.
- mu and nu could be mistyped.
- xi risks confusion with the Chinese leader.
- omicron could stand out like a bird’s alarm call.
Omicron is also a word, you don’t hear often in normal conversation unlike some Greek letters.
Could it have been chosen as it is a word that will be picked out in conversation and those that hear it will be nudged towards covid-correct behaviour like wearing a mask or keeping, keeping apart or remembering to get a booster jab.
If people constantly say booster, covid and omicron in the same sentence would it nudge people to do the right thing?
It probably would work unless omicron meas something different in the local language.
Voters In Trump Counties Far More Likely To Die Of Covid
The title of this post is the same as that of this article in The Times.
These are the first two paragraphs.
Americans in areas that voted for President Trump are almost three times more likely to die of Covid-19 than those in counties that supported Joe Biden, an analysis has found.
In the most strongly pro-Trump areas there was an almost sixfold difference in pandemic mortality with the most pro-Biden areas, according to National Public Radio (NPR).
I suppose Trummkopf will say it is fake news.
Would A Lumo-Style Service Work Between King’s Cross And Norfolk?
This is a bit of a fantasy and you’ll never know the real reason why I have written it!
With the upgrade of the East Coast Main Line to full digital signalling, there will be a problem South of Hitchin with 140 mph Azumas and Hitachi Class 802 trains and similar from Grand Central , Hull Trains and Lumo hogging the fast lines to and from King’s Cross. I first wrote about it in Call For ETCS On King’s Lynn Route.
One solution would be to replace the current Class 387 trains with a 140 mph train , such as a Hitachi Class 802 variant. This would enable these fast King’s Lynn and Cambridge trains to join the 140 mph trains on a fast run to and from King’s Cross.
The Future Of Cambridge
Cambridge is one of the UK’s four world cities, with its heritage and lately its high position in any technology league table.
The Current Rail Service Between London And Cambridge
Currently, it has a good service into King’s Cross, Liverpool Street and St. Pancras.
- Great Northern – two tph to King’s Cross – A stopping train using Class 700 or Class 387 trains.
- Great Northern – one tph between Ely and King’s Cross – A fast train using Class 387 trains.
- Great Northern – one tph between King’s Lynn and King’s Cross – A fast train using Class 387 trains.
- Thameslink – two tph to Brighton – A semi-fast train using Class 700 trains.
- Greater Anglia – two tph to Liverpool Street – A semi-fast train using Class 720 or Class 379 trains.
Note.
- tph means trains per hour.
- The similar Class 387 and Class 379 trains are both late-model Bombardier Electrostars with sensible seats and a large number of tables. Both train types can or could be modified to run at 110 mph.
- The Class 700 trains are unsuitable for the route, as they have ironing-board seats and no tables. These are only 100 mph trains.
- The Queen’s bottom doesn’t like the Class 700 trains.
A large proportion of the passengers and commuters between to and from Cambridge work in high-tech or information-rich businesses and I believe if the trains were more geared to this market they would attract passengers away from the roads.
The Cambridge Employment Problem
Fast-growing Cambridge is taking over the region and it is always looking for towns and villages to develop as places for dormitories and to build premises for the hundreds of high-tech businesses.
This is one of the reasons why Greater Anglia acquired new Stadler Class 755 trains to run services from Cambridge to Bury St. Edmunds, Ipswich, Norwich, Peterborough and Stansted Airport.
If you’re going to lure Cambridge’s well-paid high-tech commuters out of their cars, you must give them an equivalent seat to their car. The Class 379, 387 and 755 trains do this.
Living In Norfolk And Suffolk And Working In Cambridge
This has always been the choice of many who work in Cambridge, but using rail into Cambridge didn’t really take-off seriously until modern three-car Class 170 trains replaced the single-car Class 153 trains.
Greater Anglia have followed the upward trend in passenger numbers, by running hourly four-car Class 755 trains from Cambridge to both Ipswich and Norwich.
Before the pandemic, it was starting to look like Norwich and Cambridge would soon need a second service, especially with the planned opening of the new Cambridge South station in 2025.
Addenbrooke’s Hospital And The Cambridge Biomedical Campus
Cambridge South station is being built to serve Addenbrooke’s Hospital and Cambridge Biomedical Campus, which intend to be create the foremost medical research cluster in the world.
Staycations And Holiday Homes In East Anglia
Life is changing because of the covids and more people are taking staycations or buying holiday homes.
And many are following the example of the Queen and going to Norfolk for their relaxation.
The Undoubted Need To Improve Rail Services Between London King’s Cross And Norfolk Via Cambridge
These factors convince me that there is a need for a new or repurposed rail service between London King’s Cross and Norfolk via Cambridge.
- The need to provide a high-class commuter service between London and Cambridge.
- The need to bring workers into Cambridge from Norfolk.
- The need to provide a fast high-class rail link to Cambridge South station with all its medical research.
- The need to provide a comprehensive working environment on the trains.
- The need to cater for all those people relaxing in Norfolk after a hard week in London.
It is my view, that a radical design of train is needed for this route.
- It would need to have a high-class interior.
- It would need at least a 125 mph capability, so that it can use the fast lines between Hitchin and King’s Cross.
- The train may need the ability to split and join.
- It would need an independent power capability for running on the Breckland Line between Ely and Norwich.
- Because of Cambridge and because East Anglia is easy country for cycling, it would need a sensible capacity for cycles.
I also believe that because of the need to decarbonise, the train should be zero-carbon.
These are my thoughts.
Operating Speed
Because of running on the fast lines between Hitchin and King’s Cross with the 140 mph trains from the North, I suspect that an operating speed of at least 125 mph is needed. But if the Hitachi trains of LNER, Hull Trains, Lumo and in the future possibly other operators like Grand Central, will be capable of 140 mph, this speed could be desirable.
Speed limits once the trains have left the East Coast Main Line at Hitchin North junction are as follows.
- Hitchin and Cambridge – 90 mph
- Cambridge and King’s Lynn – 90 mph
- Ely and Norwich – 75-90 mph
I can see Network Rail using their expertise to raise the speed limit on sections of these lines.
Flighting Of Trains On The East Coast Main Line
To increase capacity on the East Coast Main Line, I believe that at some point in the not too distant future that trains will be flighted. This will involve two or more trains leaving King’s Cross in a sequence and proceeding with all trains at a safe distance from each other.
I can envisage a flight like this from King’s Cross.
- An Edinburgh train with York as the first stop – Leaves at XX.00
- A Leeds train with Doncaster as the first stop – Leaves at XX.03
- A Lincoln train with Peterborough as the first stop – Leaves at XX.06
- A Cambridge train with Stevenage as the first stop – Leaves at XX.09
Note.
- The Edinburgh train would set the speed.
- Trains would maintain their time behind the lead train.
- Everything could be controlled by the digital signalling.
- Gaps between the trains would be sufficient for a safe stop.
- No train in the flight would make a station stop unless it was the last train in the flight.
- The last train in the flight would drop off and go to their destination.
As there are at least two tph to Edinburgh, Leeds and Cambridge, there would be two main flights per hour leaving King’s Cross, with the second flight perhaps incorporating a service to Hull.
Digital signalling and precise driving would enable the flights to be built in the opposite direction into King’s Cross.
The big advantage would be that instead of needing eight paths per hour on the East Coast Main Line, only two would be needed.
All trains would need to have similar performance, so this is another reason why the Cambridge trains need to be at least 125 mph trains.
Train Interiors
Lumo has broken new ground in train interiors.
- It is one class.
- Everybody gets a decent seat.
- Everybody gets good legroom.
- Everybody gets some form of table.
- There are decent-sized overhead racks for hand-baggage and coats.
- There is space for bicycles and heavy luggage appropriate to the route.
This can be built on to provide a good working and playing environment suited to the passengers who would use a fast King’s Cross and Norfolk service via Cambridge.
- Lots of tables for four, as in the high-class Electrostars.
- Better bicycle storage.
- Better alignment of seats with windows.
Hitachi could obviously produce a train to this specification.
But what about other manufacturers.
Stadler’s Class 755 trains are surely a possibility.
- A senior driver from Greater Anglia told me that the design speed for a Class 755 train is 200 kph or 125 mph.
- They have good seats.
- They have flat floors.
- They have large windows.
- They have step-free access between train and platform.
- Like the Hitachi trains, they are in service.
I believe the closely-related Class 745 trains are probably the best commuter trains in the UK and are the only alternative to the Hitachi trains on a125 mph fully-electrified route.
Bridging The Electrification Gap Between Ely And Norwich
Between Norwich and Ely stations is 53.8 miles and this section is not electrified, although both stations have full electrification.
The line is not heavily used with typically only two passenger trains and the occasional freight trains in each direction in an hour.
This Hitachi infographic describes the Hitachi Regional Battery Train.
A 90 km. range could be sufficient to cover the gap between Norwich and Ely.
Could Hitachi build a Class 802 train or similar with a battery range of 90 km or 56 miles?
Certainly, a speed of 100 mph would probably be sufficient to bridge the gap in a decent time.
Improving The Breckland Line
The Breckland Line is the route between Cambridge and Norwich.
- Cambridge and Norwich is 68.5 miles
- Only the sixteen miles between Cambridge and Ely North junction is electrified.
- There are thirteen stops between the two cities.
- A typical time is 79 minutes
- This is an average speed of just 52 mph.
- The operating speed is 75-90 mph.
I am sure that Network Rail can squeeze a few minutes here and there to get the operating speed up to the 100 mph of the Great Eastern Main Line.
But the big problem at Norwich is the Trowse swing bridge.
It is only single track and it is likely that this bridge will be replaced soon.
This Google Map shows Trowse junction, a short distance South of the swing bridge.
Note.
- The electrified double-track of the Great Eastern Main Line goes across the map from North East to South West.
- The double-track railway to the East of the main line is the unelectrified Breckland Line to Cambridge, which turns West and goes under the main line.
- On the West of the main lines are the Victoria sidings that I wrote about in Greater Anglia Completes Directly-Managed Norwich Victoria Sidings Project.
As the replacement of the swing bridge will require some work to be done to the electrification, I wonder if at the same time Network Rail would electrify the Norwich end of the Breckland Line.
There must be a balance point adding electrification or batteries to the trains.
As the Breckland Line has few freight trains, electrification is not needed for freight.
Ticketing
A high-speed high-capacity service as I’m proposing must be easy to use.
It is a classic route, where nothing short of London-style contactless ticketing will do, as I’m certain this encourages people to use the trains.
As East Anglia is self-contained and has few services that don’t terminate in the area or in London, I am certain that this could be achieved.
If you remove First Class as Greater Anglia has done on many services, you actually simplify the ticketing, so a Lumo-style mid-class is ideal.
High Speed Train Services
Currently Great Northern run two tph from King’s Cross to Ely via Cambridge.
- One service is extended to King’s Lynn.
- I could see the second service extended to Norwich.
Both services would need to be run by 125 mph trains because of the speed of other trains on the East Coast Main Line.
Conclusion
I think duch a system would be possible.
A Simple Solution To The Tricky Problem Of Eye Drops
Since the cataract in my left eye has been removed, I have supposed to be putting drops in my eyes seven times a day. It’s four of one and three of another.
But it has all changed since the District Nurse brought me a pair of these shields.
The bottle with the drops is poked through the bottom of the shield and the cut goes over the eye. To get one drop, you squeeze the bottle gently.
I find the best place to be drop the drops, is lying on my back on my Chinese carpet, with my head on a cushion that C embroidered.
My father would have liked this device.
In his printing business he specialised in creating special cards and forms for the office systems of the 1950s and 1960s. So he would create guides and spacers out of wood in his workshop, so that his staff could perform complex operations quickly and efficiently.
It has certainly made putting the drops in my eye a lot easier.
Conclusion
The hospital should have given me a shield with the drops. The wholesale price can’t be that expensive.
The Anonymous Widower 