‘Phantom’ Power Projects Are Holding Back The UK’s Energy Security – Centrica Report
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from Centrica.
These are the three bullet points.
- New report shows queue for new energy projects is blocked by developers that may not even have land rights and haven’t applied for planning consents
- Estimated size of these power projects in the queue is 62GW, roughly one fifth of all power in the queue
- Centrica CEO argues such ‘phantom’ projects should have Construction Agreements terminated if developers miss key milestones – and urges Ofgem to give National Grid ESO the power to remove projects from the existing grid queue
This is the first two paragraphs.
A new independent report, commissioned by Centrica, has revealed the extent of the power projects holding back the UK’s energy security and creating risk around hitting net zero.
The report examined the UK’s existing queue for Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) – the queue for connecting new projects to the transmission grid – and discovered that it is up to four times oversubscribed. Not only that, but this oversubscription has become significantly worse in the last few years.
The report found these three totals.
- There are currently 371GW of projects in the queue, enough to significantly improve the UK’s energy security.
- Around 114GW worth of projects have listed their connection date as before 2029.
- But around 62GW of these projects are only in the scoping phase and developers may not even have secured land rights or applied for planning consent.
This is both good and bad news!
Here Is The Good News!
Currently, the UK is using 37 GW of electricity, of which 32 GW are generated in the UK, 5 GW is being imported through interconnectors and around 6 GW are coming from renewables.
So this means that when we build all the 371 GW in the queue, we’ll have around eleven times the electricity we are using today.
Of the 114 GW of projects listed for connection before 2029, it looks like 62 GW won’t be delivered, as they haven’t secured land rights or applied for planning consent.
But that still means that as much as 52 GW could be delivered by 2029.
Even this reduced level of new projects still increases the amount of electricity that can be generated by nearly 150 %.
If I’m being ultra pessimistic, I would say that the average capacity factor of the extra capacity was 50 %, so we’d only be adding 26 GW, so the electricity, that can be generated would only rise by around 70 %.
I suspect all in the UK can live with these paltry increases.
Here Is The Bad News!
This is a paragraph from the report.
The report suggests that the oversubscribed queue, and longer wait for connections. has a damaging effect on the investments that could drive the UK’s energy transition and energy security.
Developers and investors will decamp to countries, where they be sure of getting a return on their time and money.
Think of having two supermarkets close to you live, where one is professional and one is chaotic. Where would you shop?
The congestion caused by phantom projects must be solved.
Ofgem’s Solution
This is the solution in the press release.
Ofgem is exploring rule changes (CMP376) to address queue issues and is expected to decide these before 10 November. These rule changes would grant the ESO the ability to remove projects from the queue if they miss key milestones. Ofgem is currently considering whether to apply this rule change to just new projects entering the queue, or whether the rule change should also be applied to projects already in the queue.
They can probably come up with a solution.
An Alternative Method From My Past
In 1969, I worked for ICI, where one of my jobs was building specialist instruments for chemical plants.
Most instruments, that were designed by the group I belonged to, included a chassis on which the components and electronics were mounted. So we had a workshop and about seven or eight staff at our disposal to build the chassis and the parts outside of our skills. As they were used by several groups in the building, where we were all based, the workshop was very busy and everything was delivered late.
Eventually, a manager decided to get a grip on the situation.
He insisted, that the workshop would not do what you wanted if your delivery date was as soon as possible, rather than a date agreed by both parties.
The results were amazing and everything was delivered on the agreed date.
With the renewable energy connection queue, I am sure, that if a procedure was developed, that only allowed fully-planned projects with an agreed completion date to enter the queue, then the problems of phantom projects would be solved.
It might also reduce the cost of developing these renewable projects.
National Grid’s London Power Tunnels Breakthrough Completes £1 Billion Project’s Tunnelling Activity
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from National Grid.
These bullet points sum up the press release.
- Landmark moment for London Power Tunnels project as 140-tonne boring machine emerges at Eltham site following final subterranean journey
- Breakthrough marks the completion of 32.5km of tunnelling at depths of up to 60m under seven South London boroughs
- Due for completion in 2026, the project is rewiring the capital’s electricity network to boost resilience and future-proof supplies as demand grows
This is the seventh major tunnel in London in recent years to be completed.
- Elstree and St. John’s Wood Cable Tunnel – Electricity – 12 miles – 2005
- Lower Lea Valley Cable Tunnels – Electricity – 3.7 miles – 2008
- Lee Tunnel – Sewage – 4.3 miles – 2016
- New Cross and Finsbury Market Cable Tunnel – Electricity – 3.5 miles – 2017
- Northern Line Extension To Battersea – Rail – 2 miles – 2021
- Elizabeth Line – Rail – 26 miles – 2022
- Silvertown Tunnel – Road – 1 mile – Under Construction
- Thames Tideway Tunnel – Sewage – 16 miles – Under Construction
- Euston Tunnel – Rail – 4.5 miles – Under Construction
Note.
- It is likely that there will be CrossRail 2 and an extension to the Bakerloo Line.
- It certainly seems to have been a prudent decision to create Tunneling and Underground Construction Academy or TUCA to train more tunnellers, before the Elizabeth Line was built.
But I don’t believe that will be all the large tunnels that will be built in the capital.
Is Sizewell C Needed?
I am generally pro-nuclear, but I am not sure if building a large nuke at Sizewell is the right action.
Consider.
- East Anglia has 3114 MW of offshore wind in operation.
- East Anglia has 6772 MW of offshore wind under construction, with Contracts for Difference or proposed.
- Vattenfall are considering abandoning development of their large wind farms off the Norfolk coast, which are proposed to have a capacity of 3196 MW.
- If the two Vattenfall wind farms don’t get built, it is likely that East Anglia will have around 6700 MW of offshore wind capacity.
- Sizewell C has a proposed nameplate capacity of 3260 MW. Some might argue, that to back up East Anglia’s offshore wind power, it needs to be larger!
- Norfolk and Suffolk no large electricity users, so are Vattenfall finding they have a product no one wants to buy.
- National Grid is developing four interconnectors to bring power from Scotland to the Eastern side of England, which will back up wind power in the East with the massive Scottish pumped storage, that is being developed.
- National Grid and their Dutch equivalent; TenneT are developing LionLink to connect the UK and the Netherlands to clusters of wind farms between our countries in the North Sea.
- Kent and East Anglia have several gas and electric interconnectors to Europe.
- Sizewell is well-connected to England’s grid.
These are my thoughts.
Energy Storage At Sizewell
Consider.
- Sizewell is well connected to the grid.
- It has the sea on one side.
- It could easily be connected to the large offshore wind farms, thirty miles out to sea.
If large energy storage could be built on the Sizewell site or perhaps under the sea, then this energy could be recovered and used in times of low wind.
Perhaps the technology of the STORE Consortium, which I discussed in UK Cleantech Consortium Awarded Funding For Energy Storage Technology Integrated With Floating Wind, could be used.
In this system, energy is stored in 3D-printed concrete hemispheres under the sea.
A Small Nuclear Reactor Cluster At Sizewell
Rolls-Royce are proposing that their small modular reactors will have a capacity of 470 MW.
Perhaps a cluster of seven small modular reactors at Sizewell, with a building schedule matched to the need to back up wind farms would be better and easier to finance.
I also feel a cluster of SMRs would have less risk and would be less likely to be delayed.
Where Is Generating Capacity Needed In The UK?
These areas already have large amounts of offshore wind in operation or proposed to be built before 2030.
- Celtic Sea
- North Wales
- Liverpool Bay
- Cumbria
- Scotland
- Scotland’s Offshore Islands
- North East England
- Humberside
- Lincolnshire
- East Anglia
- Thames Estuary
- Kent
- Sussex
Amongst the back up for these wind farms, there are only two modern nuclear stations; Sizewell B and the still-to-open Hinckley Point C.
If you look at a map of England and its power generation, there is a tremendous gap of capacity South of a line between Hinckley Point and Brighton, with little or no offshore wind and no nuclear.
There is probably a need for a large nuke near Weymouth.
Alternatively, perhaps several SMRs could be built underneath places like Salisbury Plain, Dartmoor and Exmoor!
Conclusion
We probably need the nuclear electricity from another Hinckley Point C-sized nuclear power station, so that we have adequate back-up for offshore wind.
But I am not sure that Sizewell is the right place to build it.
T-Pylons To The West Of Yatton Station
I talked about National Grid’s first T-pylons in National Grid Energise World’s First T-Pylons.
Today, I went and had a look for them and found where they cross the Bristol-Exeter Line between Yatton and Worle stations.
I took these pictures.
Note.
- The first nine pictures were taken going West between Yatton and Worle and the last eleven were taken going East.
- Some of the mature trees seem to hide the pylons, as the train passes.
T-pylons are deliberately smaller than traditional pylons, as these pictures show.
It is certainly a good attempt at producing a less noticeable electricity transmission line.
It’s T-time! All T-Pylons Now Erected On Hinkley Connection Project
The title of this post, is the same as that as this press release from National Grid.
These are the three bullet points.
- All 116 world-first T-structures now complete as part of the Hinkley Connection Project
- Last of 232 diamond ‘earrings’ lifted onto a T-pylon between Yatton and Kenn in North Somerset
- 36 of the new T-pylons between Woolavington and Loxton were energised in March
This is the first paragraph.
National Grid’s Hinkley Connection Project reached another milestone with the completion of all 116 of its iconic new T-pylons, which will connect six million homes and businesses in the South West to home grown, low-carbon energy.
There is a video in the press release, which is well worth a view.
Vattenfall Stops Developing Major Wind Farm Offshore UK, Will Review Entire 4.2 GW Zone
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
Vattenfall has stopped the development of the Norfolk Boreas offshore wind power project in the UK and will review the way forward for the entire 4.2 GW Norfolk Zone, the Swedish energy company revealed in its interim report.
This is the first paragraph.
The developer said that the decision to stop the project was made due to ”challenging market conditions”, adding that ”financial frameworks have not adapted to reflect the current market conditions” so far.
Vattenfall are also complaining about inflation and cost increases if up to 40 %.
I have my thoughts.
Great Yarmouth Support Base
In some ways, I find this decision to pull out strange, as it was only in March this year that Vattenfall signed a contract with Peel Ports to build a support base for their Norfolk wind farms at Great Yarmouth.
I don’t think that Peel Ports will be too bothered, as they are a well-funded company and there are plenty of wind farm proposals in the sea around Norfolk, who could use a base at Great Yarmuth.
Cable Routes And Nimbys
These Norfolk wind farms have suffered opposition from Nimbys to the cable route, that will be taking the electricity away from the coast. This may have increased the cost of delivery of the electricity to market.
An Offshore Cable Route
In January 2022, I wrote Is There A Need For A Norfolk-Suffolk Interconnector?, where I analysed the amount of energy, that will be produce in Norfolk and Suffolk.
This was my conclusion.
I believe there are a lot of possibilities, that would meet the three objectives, I stated earlier.
-
- Avoid as much disruption on the land as possible.
- Create the capacity to deliver all the energy generated to customers, either as electricity or hydrogen.
- Create an expandable framework, that would support all the wind farms that could be built in the future.
In addition, simple mathematics says to me, that either there will need to be extra capacity at both Bicker Fen and Bullen Lane substations and onward to the rest of the country, or a large electrolyser to convert several gigawatts of electricity into hydrogen for distribution, through the gas network.
Note.
- An offshore Multiple Purpose Interconnector (MPI) could be built between Bicker Fen in Lincolnshire and the Isle of Grain.
- An electrolyser could be built offshore, joined to the MPI and connected to the Bacton gas terminal.
- There could be local offshore hydrogen storage.
- Bicker Fen is connected to the Viking Link to Denmark.
- An offshore link could have its Southern end at the Isle of Grain, from where the electricity can be exported to Germany, by the NeuConnect interconnector, that is under construction.
There must be sufficient capacity, so that all energy is delivered to customers, as either electricity or hydrogen.
I’ve always favoured delivering electricity from these and other East Anglian wind farms with an offshore cable route away from the coast between perhaps Bicker Fen in Lincolnshire and the the Isle of Grain, from where the electricity can be exported to Germany, by an interconnector, that is being built.
Competition From Scotland
National Grid are improving the offshore grid between Scotland and Humberside, so perhaps Vattenfall might have a competition problem, when it comes to selling their electricity.
If you have no market for a product, then the price drops.
Is East Anglia A Bad Place To Have Surplus Electricity?
Consider.
- It should also be remembered that East Anglia has no heavy electricity users.
- There are also no substantial mountains for building large pumped-storage hydro schemes, as Scotland is proposing to do.
- The construction of Sizewell C will add more electricity to the area.
In my view the best thing to do would be to build a giant electrolyser near the Bacton gas terminal.
Was It A Mistake For Vattenfall To Make A Bid?
Looking at the delivery problems for the Norfolk wind farms, I think that Vattenfall made a bad decision to bid for them.
- The wind farms are too far North to serve London and the South-East and to export the electricity to the Continent.
- They are also too far South to serve the industry in the North around the Humber and the Tees.
It looks an obvious case of wrong Location, Location and Location.
Could Norfolk Boreas And Norfolk Viking Work Economically?
I suspect these ideas could help.
- A Multiple Purpose Interconnector (MPI) would be built between Bicker Fen in Lincolnshire and the Isle of Grain.
- The MPI would connect to any wind farms on the route.
- An offshore electrolyser opposite Bacton would be connected to the MPI to use surplus electricity to generate hydrogen, which would be distributed through the gas grid.
The whole network of wind farms, interconnectors, electrolysers and storage needs to be comprehensively designed, so that it provides the South-East corner of England, with enough reliable electricity and hydrogen.
National Grid And SSEN Transmission Agree Joint Venture For UK’s Largest Ever Electricity Transmission Project
The title of this post is the same as that of this press release from National Grid.
This is the sub-heading.
Joint Venture Agreement Important Milestone In Subsea Electricity Superhighway – Eastern Green Link 2
These four paragraphs outline the project.
National Grid Electricity Transmission (NGET) and SSEN Transmission have taken a big step forward in the development of a new subsea electricity superhighway project along the east coast of Scotland after reaching agreement on the terms of their joint venture (JV).
The ‘Eastern Green Link 2’ (EGL2) project will see the creation of a 525kW, 2GW high-voltage direct current (HVDC) subsea transmission cable from Peterhead in Scotland to Drax in England. The UK’s single largest electricity transmission project ever.
The subsea HVDC cable system is approximately 436km in length with new converter stations at either end to connect it into the existing transmission network infrastructure. HVDC technology provides the most efficient and reliable means of transmitting large amounts of power over long distances subsea.
The EGL2 link will support the growth of new renewable electricity generation, creating jobs and delivering a pathway to net zero emissions targets, as well as helping to alleviate existing constraints on the electricity network.
The Wikipedia entry for Eastern HVDC has a detailed description of the two 2GW Scotland-England interconnectors, that are planned.
This is the first section.
Eastern HVDC and Eastern HVDC projects are the names used by Ofgem for two planned HVDC submarine power cables from the East coast of Scotland to Northeast England to strengthen the National Grid. The two links combined will deliver 4 GW of renewable energy from Scottish wind farms to England.
Ofgem state that “At an estimated cost of £3.4 billion for the two links, the Eastern HVDC projects would be the largest electricity transmission investment project in the recent history of Great Britain.
The Project Background Document for SEGL1 can be viewed here.
EGL2 also has its own web site.
Grain LNG Launches Market Consultation For Existing Capacity
The title of this post is the same as that of this press release from National Grid.
This is the sub-heading.
Grain LNG, the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Europe, is pleased to announce the launch of a market consultation for the auction of 375 Gwh/d (approx. 9 mtpa) of existing capacity. The initial consultation phase for the Auction of Existing Capacity will commence on 14 June and run until 26 July.
These paragraphs detail what Grain LNG, which is a subsidiary of National Grid are offering.
GLNG has used the positive feedback received from the recent ‘Expression of Interest’ exercise and subsequent market engagement to offer three lots of capacity:
- Each lot will be entitled to 42 berthing slots, 200,000 m3 of storage and 125GWh/d (approx. 3 mtpa) of regasification capacity from as early as January 2029.
- This product is specifically designed for parties who wish to acquire a substantial stake in a major terminal in Northwest Europe, at a reduced cost and with shorter contract lengths when compared to new-build projects.
- As the terminal’s capacity already exists, parties involved will not be subjected to the FID approvals or potential delays that can arise from construction issues commonly associated with new build terminals.
Simon Culkin, Importation Terminal Manager at Grain LNG, said: “We are really pleased with the high level of interest shown by the market at a time of significant geo-political influence on our energy markets. It has allowed us to engage with potential customers and shape our offering to best meet their needs, whilst optimising access to this strategic asset. “
Reading the Wikipedia entry for the Grain LNG Terminal, it looks like it gets used as a handy store for natural gas.
About Phase 1 (2002–05), Wikipedia says this.
The new facilities enabled the Grain terminal to become a base supply to the NTS, with the ability to deliver gas continuously when required. The cost of the Phase 1 project was £130m. A 20-year contract with BP / Sonatrach enabled Grain LNG to import LNG on a long-term basis from July 2005.
About Phase 2 (2005–08), Wikipedia says this.
The development provided an additional five million tonnes of capacity per annum. All this capacity was contracted out from December 2010. Customers included BP, Iberdrola, Sonatrach, Centrica, E.ON and GDF Suez.
Under Current Facilities, Wikipedia says this.
Grain LNG Ltd does not own the LNG or the gas that it handles but charges for gasifying it. Current (2016) users include BP, Centrica (British Gas Trading), Iberdrola (Spain), Sonatrach (Algeria), Engie (France), and Uniper (Germany).
National Grid must be pleased that some customers seem loyal.
I feel that National Grid’s basic plan is to carry on with more of the same.
But will they develop more storage and other facilities on the site.
There are certainly other projects and interconnectors, that make the Isle of Grain and energy hub connecting the UK, Netherlands and Germany.
- In Did I See The UK’s Hydrogen-Powered Future In Hull Today?, I mentioned, that I thought that the Isle of Grain could be a location for an electrolyser and a hydrogen store.
- In EuroLink, Nautilus And Sea Link, I talk about new interconnectors, if which Nautilus might come to the Isle of Grain.
- In UK-German Energy Link Reaches Financial Close, I talk about NeuConnect, which will be an interconnector between the Isle of Grain ans Wilhelmshaven in Germany.
- The Isle of Grain is the landing point for the BritNed undersea power cable between The Netherlands and the UK.
I could also see National Grid building an East Coast interconnector to bring power from the wind farms off the East Coast of England to the Isle of Grain for distribution.
These are major wind farms South of the Humber.
- Dudgeon – 402 MW
- East Anglia 1 – 714 MW
- East Anglia 1 North – 800 MW
- East Anglia 2 – 900 MW
- Galloper – 504 MW – RWE
- Greater Gabbard – 504 MW
- Gunfleet Sands – 174 MW
- Hornsea 1 – 1218 MW
- Hornsea 2 – 1386 MW
- Hornsea 3 – 2852 MW
- Humber Gateway – 219 MW
- Lincs – 270 MW
- London Array – 630 MW
- Lynn and Inner Dowsing – 194 MW
- Race Bank – 580 MW
- Scroby Sands – 60 MW
- Sheringham Shoal – 317 MW
- Triton Knoll – 857 MW – RWE
- Dogger Bank A – 1235 MW
- Dogger Bank B – 1235 MW
- Dogger Bank C – 1218 MW
- Dogger Bank D – 1320 MW
- Dogger Bank South – 3000 MW RWE
- East Anglia 3 – 1372 MW
- Norfolk Boreas – 1396 MW
- Norfolk Vanguard – 1800 MW
- Outer Dowsing – 1500 MW
- North Falls – 504 MW – RWE
- Sheringham Shoal and Dudgeon Extensions – 719 MW
- Five Estuaries – 353 MW – RWE
Note.
- These figures give a total capacity of 28,333 MW.
- Five wind farms marked RWE are owned by that company.
- These five wind farms have a total capacity of 5618 MW.
- Will RWE export, their electricity to Germany through NeuConnect?
I can certainly see National Grid building one of the world’s largest electrolysers and some energy storage on the Isle of Grain, if an East Coast Interconnector is built.
Gresham House Energy Storage Sets GBP80 Million Fundraise
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund must be doing something right, as similar headlines are used in half-a-dozen places on the Internet and they regularly seem to be raising more money.
But then, as a Graduate Control Engineer and a previous owner of half a finance company, I’ve always thought raising money to build batteries was a good idea.
My only niggle with Gresham House, is that I would have thought by now, they would have put some money into building one of the excellent new technology batteries that are coming through.
The storage fund or some of its employees, may of course have contributed to some of the crowdfunding for these new technologies, all of which I feel have a good chance of being a success.
Note.
- Energy Dome is Italian and all the others are at least fifty percent British.
- Most of the British batteries have had backing from the UK government.
- All these batteries are environmentally-friendly.
- None of these batteries use large quantities of rare and expensive materials.
- Energy Dome even uses carbon dioxide as the energy storage medium.
In addition, in Scotland, there is traditional pumped storage hydro-electricity.
Project Iliad
This article on renews.biz has a slightly different headline of Gresham House To Raise £80m For US Battery Buildout.
This is the first two paragraphs.
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund is seeking to raise £80m through a share placing.
The new equity raised will primarily be used to finance 160MW of solar with co-located four-hour battery projects in California, US, known as Project Iliad.
The article then gives a lot of financial details of Project Iliad and Gresham House.
Will Gresham House be backing co-located solar/battery projects in the UK?
- In Cleve Hill Solar Park, I write about a co-located solar/battery project in Kent.
- This press release from National Grid is entitled UK’s First Transmission-Connected Solar Farm Goes Live, which also describes a co-located solar/battery project, being built near Bristol.
These two projects are certainly serious and could be pathfinders for a whole host of co-located solar/battery projects.
WillGresham House back some of this new generation?
The Anonymous Widower 