Can We Move The Equilibrium Point Of The Energy Market?
Equilibrium In Systems
As a Control Engineer, I believe that most systems eventually end up in a state of equilibrium.
How many football batches have you watched between two evenly-matched teams that have ended, where the statistics are even and the match has ended in a nil-nil draw or a win by one goal.
Now suppose one manager makes an inspired substitution, one important player gets injured or one player gets sent off.
One team will have an advantage, the statistics will no longer be even and one team will probably win.
The equilibrium point will have been shifted.
Zopa’s Stable Peer-to-Peer Lending System
I used Zopa’s peer-to-peer lending system for several years and found it a very stable system, that over the years paid a steady return of between four and five percent before tax.
I even developed a method to maximise my savings income, which I wrote about in The Concept Of Hybrid Banking.
It was a sad day for me, when Zopa closed its ground-breaking peer-to-peer lending system.
As a Control Engineer, I believe that Zopa’s strength was a well-written computerised algorithm, that matched lenders and borrowers and spread the risk.
- There was no bias in the system, introduced by personal prejudices.
- The algorithm was agnostic and judged all borrowers on their profiles and credit ratings alone.
- Money was allocated under fair rules for borrowers.
- I never borrowed from Zopa, but from my experience of owning half of a finance company, their terms were the most customer-friendly I’ve ever seen.
Someone will go back to the basics of peer-to-peer lending and it can’t be soon enough for both savers and borrowers.
Zopa In Troubled Times
Over the years that I invested in Zopa, my returns stayed very much the same, as the algorithm seemed to be able to maintain sufficient difference between lenders’ returns and borrowers’ rates. I also suspect the dynamics of savvy lenders and borrowers helped to stabilise both the system and the difference between rates.
It even worked through the Banking Crisis of 2008 and other mini-hiccups along the way.
My Conclusion About Zopa
As someone, who knows computing well, I would rate Zopa, one of the best computer systems, I’ve ever seen.
But it showed how a large transactional system can work well.
One of the keys to its success and smooth operation was that the computer was totally in control and it took all transaction decisions without direct human intervention.
The Energy Market
The energy market is a network of energy providers and users.
It is controlled by complicated rules and it has settled into an equilibrium, which involves.
- Importation of energy, which I suspect is not at a low price
- Some high priced energy generators, based on gas, which has a high-price, due to Putin’s war.
- Waste of wind energy due to lack of energy storage.
- The intermittency of renewable sources.
- A lack of gas storage, means that we probably get the wrong end of fluctuations in the gas price.
This results in a high price to consumers.
Can We Move The Equilibrium Point Of The Energy Market?
And we also need to move it quickly to a more favourable place, which benefits everybody!
As a Control Engineer, I believe that there are five ways to move the equilibrium point.
- Stop Putin’s war.
- Increase gas storage.
- Generate more low-cost electricity.
- Increase electricity storage.
- Improve the control algorithm.
I will now look at each in more detail.
Stopping Putin’s War
Giving in to Putin’s ambitions, would be an easy way to solve our energy crisis. But at what cost?
My parents generation, watched as Nazi Germany took over Austria and Czechoslovakia, whilst the world did nothing.
- We mustn’t repeat that mistake.
- We must not flinch in our support of the Ukraine.
- We must be ready to support Moldova, Finland and the Baltic States if Putin expands his ambitions.
I do wonder, if Boris will turn up with Churchillian-style anti-Putin rhetoric all over Eastern Europe.
Increasing Gas Storage
The major gas storage facility is Rough, which is handily close to the Easington gas terminal.
The facility needs maintenance and this paragraph from the Wikipedia entry gives the current status.
In May 2022, the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Kwasi Kwarteng, began talks with the site’s owners with a view to reopening the site to help ease the ongoing cost-of-living crisis in the United Kingdom. In June 2022, owners Centrica submitted an application to the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), the licencing authority for the UK Government, to reopen the facility. Approval was granted in July. Subsequently, Centrica indicated that they are working hard to restore storage operations at Rough which would depend on securing subsidies from the British government. Centrica was aiming to have some capacity available for the winter of 2022/23 against an overall plan to increase storage capacity gradually over time.
Note.
- Rough can store around 2832 million cubic metres of gas.
- This article on Energy Live News is entitled Reopening Of Rough Storage Gets The All-Clear.
Less well-known is SSE and Equinor’s Aldborough Gas Storage.
These three paragraphs from SSE web site, describe the gas storage.
The Aldbrough Gas Storage facility, in East Yorkshire, officially opened in June 2011. The last of the nine caverns entered commercial operation in November 2012.
The facility, which is a joint venture between SSE Thermal (66%) and Equinor, has the capacity to store around 330 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas.
SSE Thermal and Equinor have consent to increase the storage capacity at the Aldbrough site (Aldbrough Phase 2) and during the last couple of years have been working to involve the local community where appropriate to refine aspects of this project, which has not been progressed to date due to market conditions.
Future plans for the facility, may include converting it to one of the world’s largest hydrogen stores.
In the grand scheme of things, Rough and Aldborough, when you consider that the UK uses 211 million cubic metres of gas every day, will only keep us going for a few days.
But it should be noted, that the Easington gas terminal is connected to the Norwegian gas fields, by the Langeled pipeline.
So Yorkshire and Humberside will be alright.
Generating More Low-Cost Electricity
The only low-cost electricity of any size to come on stream will be wind-power.
This article on Renewables Now is entitled UK Hits 25.5 GW Of Wind Power Capacity.
These wind farms seem to be coming on stream soon or have been commissioned recently.
- Dogger Bank A – 1200 MW – Commissioning 2023 expected
- Dogger Bank B – 1200 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
- Dogger Bank C – 1200 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
- Hornsea Two – 1386 MW – Commissioned 2022
- Moray East – 950 MW – Commissioning 2022 expected
- Neart Na Gaoithe – 450 MW – Commissioning 2024 expected
- Seagreen – 1075 MW – Commissioning 2023 expected
- Triton Knoll – 857 MW – Commissioning 2022 expected
That is expected to be over 5 GW of offshore wind by the end of 2023.
In case there is some double counting, I’ll only say that wind power capacity could be near to 30 GW by December 2023, with perhaps another 3 GW by December 2024.
Other large wind farms in the future include.
- Berwick Bank – 4100 MW – Commissioning 2028 expected
- East Anglia Two – 900 MW – Commissioning 2026 expected
- East Anglia Three – 1400 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Inch Cape Phase 1 – 1080 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Hornsea Three – 2800 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Moray West – 294 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Morgan and Mona – 3000 MW – Commissioning for 2028 expected
- Morven – 2900 MW – Commissioning for 2028 expected
- Norfolk Boreas – 1400 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Norfolk Vanguard – 1400 MW – Construction start planned for 2023
- Sofia – 1400 MW – Commissioning 2026 expected
That is over 14 GW of wind power.
I should also take note of solar and onshore wind power detailed in this document from the Department of Business, Industry and Industrial Strategy that lists all the Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4 results for the supply of zero-carbon electricity.
It gives these figures and dates.
- Solar – 251 MW – Commissioning 2023/24 expected
- Solar – 1958 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
- Onshore Wind – 888 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
I can now build a yearly table of renewables likely to be commissioned in each year.
- 2022 – 3193 MW
- 2023 – 2275 MW
- 2024 – 701 MW
- 2025 – 5246 MW
- 2026 – 2300 MW
- 2027 – 6974 MW
- 2028 – 11400 MW
Note.
- Where a double date has been given, I’m taking the latter date.
- I have assumed that Norfolk Vanguard will be commissioned in 2028.
- I have ignored Hinckley Point C, which should add 3.26 GW in mid-2027.
- I have only taken into account one of the Scotwind wind farms in Scotland, some of which could be commissioned by 2028.
- I have assumed that BP’s Mona, Morgan and Morven will all be commissioned by 2028.
This is a total of 32 GW or an average of nearly 5 GW per year.
Increasing Electricity Storage
Big schemes like the 1.5 GW/ 30 GWh Coire Glas and 600 MW Cruachan 2 will help, but with 32 GW of renewable energy to be installed before 2028 and energy prices rocketing, we need substantial energy storage in the next couple of years.
One feasible plan that has been put forward is that of Highview Power’s CEO; Rupert Pearce,, that I wrote about in Highview Power’s Plan To Add Energy Storage To The UK Power Network.
The plan is to build twenty of Highview Power’s CRYOBatteries around the country.
- Each CRYOBattery will be able to store 30 GWh.
- Each CRYOBattery will be one of the largest batteries in the world.
- They will have three times the storage of the pumped storage hydroelectric power station at Dinorwig.
- They will be able to supply 2.5 GW for twelve hours, which is more output than Sizewell B nuclear power station.
Note.
- The first 30 GWh CRYOBattery is planned to be operational by late 2024.
- 600 GWh distributed around the country would probably be sufficient.
I believe that as these batteries are made from standard proven components, they could be built fairly quickly.
Paying For The Energy Storage
This press release from Highview Power is entitled New Analysis Reveals Extent Of UK Renewable Energy Waste, which makes these three bullet points.
- Enough renewable energy to power 500,000 homes a day wasted since the energy crisis began.
- 8 out of 10 Britons want more investment in boosting Britain’s energy resilience.
- UK spent £390 million turning off wind farms and using gas since September 2021.
Note.
- As the press release was published in July 2022, was the £390 million for ten months.
- Will this level of spend continue, as we’re not creating any electricity storage or building any factories that will start in a year or so, that will need large amounts of electricity?
- The Germans are at least building the NeuConnect interconnector between the Isle of Grain and Wilhelmshaven.
- As we’re adding up to 5 GW per year to our renewable energy systems, this problem will surely get worse and we’ll spend more money switching off wind turbines.
We have the money to build a very large amount of energy storage.
Improving The Control Algorithm
A better control algorithm would always help and politicians should only be allowed to set objectives.
Conclusion
There is a chance we’ll have an oversupply of electricity, but this will have effects in the UK.
- Gas-fired power-stations will be retired from front-line service to produce electricity.
- Some will question the need for nuclear power.
- Gas may even be used selectively to provide carbon dioxide for agricultural, scientific and industrial processes.
- Industries that need a lot of electricity may build factories in the UK.
- We will have a large supply of green hydrogen.
But it should bring the price of electricity down.
Energy Storage Will Deliver ‘Tens Of Billions Of Pounds A Year’
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Energy Live News.
This is the first paragraph.
This week’s Net Hero Podcast delves into how energy storage is being underappreciated as a key to cutting costs on our energy bills.
I have listened to the half-hour podcast and it is a fascinating interview with Rupert Pearce, who is the CEO of Highview Power.
He talks about.
- Green stability services
- Power stations in a box
- Vehicle-to-grid storage
- How Highview Power is location agnostic.
- And lots of other topics.
He also talks about the twenty Highview Power CRYOBatteries located around the country and financed traditionally, as there is money to be made.
Listen to what he has to say!
Conclusion
Rupert Pearce is a man with vision. And I like what he says!
Pumped Storage Development In Scotland
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on International Water Power & Dam Construction.
It describes and gives the current status of the two large pumped storage hydroelectric schemes under development in Scotland.
The 1.5 GW/30 GWh scheme at Coire Glass, that is promoted by SSE.
The Cruachan 2 scheme, that is promoted by Drax, that will upgrade Cruachan power station to 1.04 GW/7.2 GWh.
Note.
- Construction of both schemes could start in 2024, with completion in 2030.
- Both, SSE and Drax talk of a substantial uplift in employment during the construction.
- Both companies say that updated government legislation is needed for schemes like these.
The article is very much a must-read.
Conclusion
Welcome as these schemes are, given the dates talked about, it looks like we will need some other energy storage to bridge the gap until Coire Glas and Cruachan 2 are built.
Will Highview Power step forward with a fleet of their 2.5 GW/30 GWh CRYOBatteries, as was proposed by Rupert Pearce in Britain Will Soon Have A Glut Of Cheap Power, And World-Leading Batteries To Store It.
- The site needed for each CRYOBattery could be smaller than a football pitch.
- In Could A Highview Power CRYOBattery Use A LNG Tank For Liquid Air Storage?, I came to the conclusion that a single LNG tank could hold a lot of liquid air.
- The storing and recovery of the energy uses standard turbomachinery from MAN.
- Highview Power should unveil their first commercial system at Carrington near Manchester this year.
I am sure, that when they get their system working, they could build one in around a year.
Where Are The Magnificent Eighteen?
In the two classic Japanese and American films of the fifties, there were seven saviours, who worked together.
This page on the Highview Power web site talks about their proposed CRYOBattery in Yorkshire, where this is said.
Highview Power’s second commercial renewable energy power station in the UK is a 200MW/2.5GWh facility in Yorkshire. This is the first of 18 sites for UK wide deployment strategically located to benefit from the existing transmission infrastructure.
As the UK’s energy problem is much worse than the problems in the films, perhaps we need more saviours.
In this article on the Telegraph, which is entitled Britain Will Soon Have A Glut Of Cheap Power, And World-Leading Batteries To Store It, Rupert Pearce, who is Highview’s chief executive, is quoted as saying the following.
Highview is well beyond the pilot phase and is developing its first large UK plant in Humberside, today Britain’s top hub for North Sea wind. It will offer 2.5GW for over 12 hours, or 0.5GW for over 60 hours, and so forth, and should be up and running by late 2024.
Further projects will be built at a breakneck speed of two to three a year during the 2020s, with a target of 20 sites able to provide almost 6GW of back-up electricity for four days at a time, or whatever time/power mix is optimal.
Is this Humberside CRYOBattery, the one on the web site described as in Yorkshire? It’s certainly in the old East Riding.
In Highview Power’s Plan To Add Energy Storage To The UK Power Network, I came to the conclusion, that the Humberside CRYOBattery will most likely be built near Creyke Beck substation, which is close to Cottingham.
- Dogger Bank A, Dogger Bank B and Hornsea 4 offshore wind farms will all be connected to the Creyke Beck substation.
- These wind farms have a total capacity of 3.4 GW.
- The Humberside CRYOBattery, now looks to have a maximum output of 2.5 GW.
- It looks like the Humberside CRYOBattery would be a well-matched backup to the three planned wind farms and perhaps even a few more turbines.
Building the Humberside CRYOBattery at Creyke Beck substation would appear to be a sensible decision.
We Only Have Half A Story
It looks like we’ve only got half a story, with a lot of detail missing.
- Will there be eighteen or twenty of Highview Power’s CRYOBatteries?
- Will they have a power output of 400 MW or nearly 6 GW for four hours?
- Will they have a storage capacity of 2.5 GWh or 30 GWh?
- Is the web site or the CEO correct?
- Have Highview Power and National Grid signed a deal for the next few CRYOBatteries?
I am expecting to see a big press statement at some time, perhaps even in the next few days, that will clear everything up.
If it was me, I would invite the new Prime Minister to the opening of the Carrington CRYOBattery and make the statement there.
The joint publicity could be equally valuable to both the Prime Minister and Highview Power.
New Octopus Energy Makes First Investment To Develop UK’s Largest Battery
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Renewable Energy Magazine.
This is the first paragraph.
Octopus Energy Group has launched its new renewables fund Octopus Energy Development Partnership (OEDP) which has just made its debut investment in renewables developer Exagen to build new green energy and rapidly grow the UK’s energy storage capacity.
These three paragraphs outline the deal with Exagen.
This latest multi-million pound deal sees OEDP take a 24 percent stake in Exagen, which is working on large-scale solar and battery facilities, partnering with farmers, landowners and local communities to build projects that help bring energy security.
This deal includes the option to purchase one of the UK’s largest batteries at 500 MW/1 GWh located in the Midlands, England, scheduled to be operational by 2027. This standalone battery would be the UK’s largest, and with the capacity to export the equivalent electricity usage of 235,000 homes in a single day. Batteries provide grid-balancing services by storing cheap green energy when it is abundant, and releasing it when it is needed.
As part of the agreement, OEDP has also acquired three solar farms with batteries on-site in the Midlands and North East of England, which Exagen is currently developing. The solar farms have a combined capacity of approximately 400 MW. Exagen already has 2 GW of solar and battery storage projects in their pipeline, which Octopus will be able to invest in once they’re ready to build.
I am intrigued about the 500 MW/1 GWh battery!
Will it be lithium-ion?
The largest lithium-ion battery in the world is currently the 400 MW/1.6 GWh battery at Moss Landing Power Plant in California, which offers more storage capacity, but less output than Exagen’s proposed battery.
Exagen’s battery needs to be operational by 2027, which means that there is almost five years for an alternative technology to be thoroughly tested.
Highview Power say this about their proposed CRYOBattery in Yorkshire, on their web site.
Highview Power’s second commercial renewable energy power station in the UK is a 200MW/2.5GWh facility in Yorkshire. This is the first of 18 sites for UK wide deployment strategically located to benefit from the existing transmission infrastructure.
A battery similar to Highview’s proposed battery in Yorkshire, would surely be big enough.
Exagen’s battery could be one of the eighteen mentioned on Highview Power’s web site.
As Highview are currently building their first commercial system at Carrington in Manchester and hope to commission it this year, there should be enough time to debug the design.
But there are other companies, who may have the capability to build a large enough battery in the timescale.
On the other hand, lithium-ion would be the conservative choice.
The Creation Of The Coire Glas Monster
Loch Ness is probably most famous for the mythical monster, but it is about to be joined by a man-made monster of a different kind.
To the South-West of Loch Ness lies Loch Lochy.
This Google Map shows the South-Western part of the Great Glen, which runs diagonally across the Highlands from Fort William in the South-West to Inverness in the North-East.
Note.
- Fort Augustus in the North-East corner of the map, is at the South-West end of Loch Ness.
- In the South-West corner of the map, Loch Lochy can be seen.
- To the North-West of Loch Lochy, there are mountains.
This second Google Map shows Loch Lochy and the mountains.
SSE plan to create a pumped storage hydroelectric power station called Coire Glas.
- Loch Lochy will be the lower reservoir.
- The upper reservoir will be in the mountains to the North-West of the loch.
- Energy will be stored by pumping water from the lower to the higher reservoir.
- The power station will be able to provide 1.5 GW of electricity.
- The upper reservoir will be able to store enough water to generate 30 GWh of electricity.
If that isn’t a monster of a power station, I don’t know what is! It has more than three times the storage capacity of both Dinorwig or Cruachan.
This article on Utility Week, which is entitled Inside £1bn Pumped Hydro Plans To ‘More Than Double’ Britain’s Electricity Storage, gives more details.
This is the sort of heroic engineering, that will defeat Vlad the Mad and his bloodstained gas.
First Ever Gravity Green Energy Storage System Set For North Yorkshire Town
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the Yorkshire Post.
These paragraphs give an outline of the project.
Plans to create the UK’s first below ground gravity energy storage system have been unveiled in North Yorkshire.
Scottish energy storage firm Gravitricity is to apply to Ryedale District Council with its plan for a facility at East Knapton in Ryedale on the site of the former Knapton gas generator.
If completed, it could store up to four megawatt hours (4MWhs) of electricity – sufficient to power more than 9,000 homes for an hour.
It looks like the system will have an output of 4 MW.
This Google Map shows the two villages of West and East Knapton.
Note.
- The A64 road between Malton and Scarborough going across the map.
- Scarborough and the coast is about fifteen miles to the East.
- The Third Energy site in the North-East corner of the map.
This second Google Map shows the Third Energy site in more detail.
Note.
- The substation and a power line in the North-East corner of the map.
- The 42 MW Knapton Generating Station used to be on this site and it was powered by local gas wells.
Third Energy have now called the site Knapton Energy Park and it now has a web page, which has this mission statement.
Third Energy is developing the former Knapton Generating Station into the Knapton Energy Park. The energy park will house multiple sources of power generation and energy storage. The aim of the project is to pay a part in the development and generation of renewable energy systems in North Yorkshire, and contribute to making the UK Net Zero by 2050.
This paragraph talks about weights.
One of our technology partners has also received government funding to conduct feasibility studies for a pilot project at Knapton which would utilise suspended weights to store energy as an alternative to the traditional battery storage technologies. This project will be developed through 2022 onwards.
It looks like Gravitricity has planted an acorn in Yorkshire.
The Third Energy web site is worth an explore. This is the mission statement on the home page.
At Third Energy our aim is to be at the forefront of North Yorkshire’s transition from fossil fuels to sustainable energy. Our team are proactively playing a part in innovative energy solutions and energy development; transforming our facilities into a multi-purpose energy park and research centre.
I particularly like this page, which is entitled Plug & Abandon.
This is the outline of their P % A philosophy on the page.
As wells near the end of their life cycle they must be decommissioned and the land returned to its original state. Unfortunately, the current P&A practices of the oil and gas industry are cost prohibitive, resulting in delays to abandonment (as companies attempt to avoid the high cost), and poor abandonment practices that may be harmful to the environment.
Fortunately, there are solutions to this problem. Our ambition is to use new and innovative technologies to P&A the wells in a more effective and sustainable manner, and first to extend the period our wells may service the community by re-purposing them for geothermal energy.
Can they really convert abandoned gas wells into geothermal energy sources?
ILI Group Secures Planning Consent For 50MW Energy Storage Project
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Solar Power Portal.
ILI Group or Intelligent Land Investments Group to give them their full name, are a Scottish-based company, that I follow as I like their energy storage developments.
The home page of their web site, lists three main areas of activity.
The home page also has a scrolling mission statement of
- UK Energy Security
- 4GW of Energy Storage Projects
- Aligned with government policy
- Saving over 200million tonnes of CO2e
- Over £4 billion of Investment
It is very much worth reading the section of the ILI Group web site, which talks about pumped-storage hydroelectricity.
It starts with a overview of the Pump Storage Sector.
Between 2007 and 2015, the total installed capacity of renewables electricity in Scotland has more than doubled. Due to its intermittent nature, the rise in renewable generation has resulted in increased demand for flexible capacity to help meet energy balancing requirements for the national grid system.
Pumped storage hydro is considered by the Directors to be the most developed and largest capacity form of grid energy storage that currently exists. This can help reduce renewable energy curtailment and therefore promote grid stability.
It then gives an overview of how pumped-storage hydroelectricity works and the benefits of the technology.
The section finishes by noting that the company has secured planning permission for the Red John pumped-storage hydroelectric power station.
The article on the Solar Power Portal, also has this paragraph on ILI Group’s ambitions for pumped-storage hydroelectricity.
ILI Group is also responsible for the development of a 1.5GW pumped storage hydro project at Loch Awe. The Balliemeanoch project based at Dalmally in Argyll and Bute will be able to supply 1.5GW of power for up to 30 hours. It is the third and largest of ILI’s pumped storage hydro projects, with the other two being Red John at Loch Ness and Corrievarkie at Loch Ericht.
Note these points about the Balliemeanoch project.
- It has a storage capacity of 45 GWh, which is around the total amount of electricity, the whole of the UK would use in two hours.
- It couldn’t power the UK, as it has an output of only 1.5 GW and the UK needs at least 23 GW.
- The largest pumped storage hydroelectric power station in the UK is Dinorwig power station, which has an output of 1.8 GW and a storage capacity of 9.1 GWh.
In terms of storage capacity, the Balliemeanoch project will probably be the largest in the UK.
The section of the ILI Group web site, that talks about battery storage, opens with an overview of battery storage opportunities, where this is said.
Battery storage projects provide an enticing new opportunity for landowners and investors alike. As a market that will see significant growth over the coming years (National Grid predict up to 40GW of storage could be required by 2050) we see exciting new opportunities in a sector that will be critical to meeting our climate change needs.
Whereas our pumped storage hydro projects will provide long-term storage capacity, our batteries will provide short-term services (less than 4 hours) to the electricity system. As the system decarbonises, becoming steadily more reliant on intermittent green renewable generation, storage will play a role of increasing importance in balancing the grid and ensuring security of supply.
Note.
- This is a sales pitch to landowners and investors.
- National Grid’s prediction of 40GW of storage by 2050, could be able to store as much as 1200 GWh of electricity.
- I agree with their statement that there will be a need for both pumped storage hydro and batteries.
The section finishes with a status summary of 21 battery projects that they are developing.
Conclusion
I feel that ILI Group is a company that means business and knows where it’s going.
The UK probably needs several more companies like the ILI Group.
Significant Step Forward For Keadby 3 Carbon Capture Power Station
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from SSE.
These three paragraphs outline the project.
A landmark project in the Humber which could become the UK’s first power station equipped with carbon capture technology has taken a major leap forward following an announcement by the UK Government today.
Keadby 3 Carbon Capture Power Station, which is being jointly developed by SSE Thermal and Equinor, has been selected to be taken forward to the due diligence stage by the Department for Business, Energy and Industry Strategy (BEIS) as part of its Cluster Sequencing Process.
This process will give the project the opportunity to receive government support, allowing it to deploy cutting edge carbon capture technology, and to connect to the shared CO2 pipelines being developed through the East Coast Cluster, with its emissions safely stored under the Southern North Sea. The common infrastructure will also supply low-carbon hydrogen to potential users across the region.
The press release also says this about the power station.
- Keadby 3 power station could have a generating capacity of up to 910MW.
- It could be operational by 2027.
- It would capture up to one and a half million tonnes of CO2 a year.
It would provide low-carbon, flexible power to back-up renewable generation.
The H2H Saltend Project
The press release also says this about the H2H Saltend project.
Equinor’s H2H Saltend project, the ‘kick-starter’ for the wider Zero Carbon Humber ambition, has also been taken to the next stage of the process by BEIS. The planned hydrogen production facility could provide a hydrogen supply to Triton Power’s Saltend Power Station as well as other local industrial users. In June, SSE Thermal and Equinor entered into an agreement to acquire the Triton Power portfolio.
I wrote about H2H Saltend and the acquisition of Triton Power in SSE Thermal And Equinor To Acquire Triton Power In Acceleration Of Low-Carbon Ambitions.
In the related post, I added up all the power stations and wind farms, that are owned by SSE Thermal and it came to a massive 9.1 GW, which should all be available by 2027.
Collaboration Between SSE Thermal And Equinor
The press release also says this about collaboration between SSE Thermal and Equinor.
The two companies are also collaborating on major hydrogen projects in the Humber. Keadby Hydrogen Power Station could be one of the world’s first 100% hydrogen-fuelled power stations, while Aldbrough Hydrogen Storage could be one of the world’s largest hydrogen storage facilities. In addition, they are developing Peterhead Carbon Capture Power Station in Aberdeenshire, which would be a major contributor to decarbonising the Scottish Cluster.
This collaboration doesn’t lack ambition.
I also think, that there will expansion of their ambitions.
Horticulture
Lincolnshire is about horticulture and it is a generally flat county, which makes it ideal for greenhouses.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a large acreage of greenhouses built close to the Humber carbon dioxide system, so that flowers, salad vegetables, soft fruit, tomatoes and other plants can be grown to absorb the carbon dioxide.
It should also be noted that one of the ingredients of Quorn is carbon dioxide from a fertiliser plant, that also feeds a large tomato greenhouse.
We would have our carbon dioxide and eat it.
Other Uses Of Carbon Dioxide
Storing carbon dioxide in depleted gas fields in the North Sea will probably work, but it’s a bit like putting your rubbish in the shed.
Eventually, you run out of space.
The idea I like comes from an Australian company called Mineral Carbonation International.
- I wrote about their success at COP26 in Mineral Carbonation International Win COP26 Clean Energy Pitch Battle.
- The company has developed the technology to convert carbon dioxide into building products like blocks and plasterboard.
- Their mission is to remove a billion tonnes of CO2 by 2040 safely and permanently.
We would have our carbon dioxide and live in it.
I also think other major uses will be developed.
A Large Battery
There is the hydrogen storage at Aldbrough, but that is indirect energy storage.
There needs to be a large battery to smooth everything out.
In Highview Power’s Second Commercial System In Yorkshire, I talk about Highview Power’s proposal for a 200MW/2.5GWh CRYOBattery.
This technology would be ideal, as would several other technologies.
Conclusion
Humberside will get a giant zero-carbon power station.
Equinor Is Counting On Tax Breaks With Plans For North Sea Oilfield
The title of this post, is the same as that, of this article in The Times.
These paragraphs outline the project.
Norway’s state-owned oil company is pushing ahead with plans to develop Britain’s biggest untapped oilfield after confirming that it stands to benefit from “helpful” tax breaks introduced alongside the windfall levy.
Equinor could lower its windfall tax bill by as much as £800 million in the years to come thanks to investment relief if it develops the Rosebank field, according to Uplift, a campaign group.
Rosebank, to the west of Shetland, could cost £4.1 billion to develop and may account for about 8 per cent of British oil output in the second half of this decade, producing 300 million barrels of oil by 2050.
Equinor said yesterday that it hoped to take a final investment decision on the field by next year and to start production by 2026. It has applied for environmental approval from the government.
Needless to say Greenpeace are not amused.
We Have Both Long Term And Short Term Energy Problems
In the UK, energy is generally used as electricity or gas and to power industry and transport.
Electricity
In the long term, we need to decarbonise our electricity production, so that all our electricity is produced from zero-carbon sources like nuclear, solar, tidal, wave and wind.
- As I write this, our electricity production is around 26.8 GW of which 62 % is coming from renewable sources.
- Surprisingly around 45 % of the renewables is coming from solar. Who’d have ever thought that in an predominantly-grey UK?
- As we have committed to around 50 GW of wind power by 2030 and the 3.26 GW Hinckley Point C will be on stream by the end of the decade, the long term future of electricity production looks to be fairly secure.
- It would be even more secure, if we added around 600 GWh of storage, as proposed in Highview Power’s Plan To Add Energy Storage To The UK Power Network, which would be used as backup when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow.
It looks to me, that our long term electricity problem is capable of being solved.
For the next few years, we will need to rely on our existing gas-fired power stations until the renewables come on stream.
Gas
Gas could be more of a problem.
- I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of resistance to the replacement of natural gas for heating, cooking and industrial processes.
- Natural gas is becoming increasingly difficult to source.
- As I said in the previous section, we will still need some gas for electricity generation, until the massive wind farms are completed.
On the other hand, there is HyDeploy.
I like the HyDeploy concept, where up to 20 % of hydrogen is blended with natural gas.
- Using a blend of hydrogen and natural gas doesn’t require any changes to boilers, appliances or industrial processes.
- The hydrogen blend would make the most of our existing world class gas network.
- Customers do not require disruptive and expensive changes in their homes.
- Enormous environmental benefits can be realised through blending low carbon hydrogen with fossil gas.
- The hydrogen blending could happen, where the natural gas enters the network at terminals which receive gas from the UK continental shelf or where liquified natural gas is imported.
- Alternatively, it may be possible to surround a gas production platform with an offshore wind farm. This could enable hydrogen production and blending to be performed offshore.
The amount of gas we need would drop by twenty percent.
In The Mathematics Of Blending Twenty Percent Of Hydrogen Into The UK Gas Grid, I calculated that 148.2 tonnes per hour of hydrogen would be needed, to blend twenty per cent of hydrogen into UK natural gas supplies.
I also said this about the electricity needed.
To create 148.2 tonnes per hour of hydrogen would need 8,180.64 MW of electricity or just under 8.2 GW.
I also calculated the effect of the hydrogen on carbon dioxide emissions.
As twenty percent will be replaced by hydrogen, carbon dioxide emission savings will be 24,120,569.99 tonnes.
I believe that generating the 8.2 GW of electricity and delivering the 148.2 tonnes per hour of hydrogen is feasible.
I also believe that HyDeploy could be a valuable way to reduce our demand for natural gas by twenty per cent.
Transport
Not every vehicle, ship, aircraft and train can be powered by electricity, although batteries will help.
Hydrogen will help, but we must also develop our capability for sustainable fuels made from rubbish diverted from landfill and biologically-derived ingredients like used cooking oil.
Summing Up Our Long Term And Short Term Energy Problems
We obviously have got the problem of creating enough renewable energy for the future, but there is also the problem of how we keep everything going in the interim.
We will need gas, diesel, petrol and other fossil fuel derived products for the next few years.
Is Rosebank Our Short Term Solution?
This page on the Equinor web site is entitled Rosebank Oil And Gas Field.
This introductory paragraph described the field.
Rosebank is an oil and gas field 130 kilometres off the coast of the Shetland Islands. Equinor acquired the operatorship in 2019 and has since then been working to optimise and mature a development solution for the field together with our partners.
Could the field with its resources of oil and gas, be just the sort of field to tide us over in the next few difficult years.
But given the position, it will surely not be an easy field to develop.
These two paragraphs set out Equinor’s strategy in developing the field.
Equinor believes the field can be developed as part of the UK Government North Sea Transition deal, bringing much needed energy security and investment in the UK while supporting the UKs net zero target. According to a socioeconomic study (see link below) based on data and analysis by Wood Mackenzie and Voar Energy, if sanctioned Rosebank is estimated to create GBP 8.1 billion of direct investment, of which GBP 6.3 billion is likely to be invested in UK-based businesses. Over the lifetime of the project, Rosebank will generate a total of GBP 24.1 billion of gross value add (GVA), comprised of direct, indirect and induced economic impacts.
Equinor together with our partners are working with the supply chain to ensure that a substantial part of investment comes to Scotland and the UK. A supplier day was held in Aberdeen in partnership with EIC in order to increase the number of local suppliers to tender.
Note.
- The sums that could accrue to the UK economy are worthwhile.
- The Government North Sea Transition Deal is worth a read.
- A lot of the deal is about converting oil and gas skills to those of a renewable energy economy.
Planned properly, we should get all the oil and gas we need to get through difficult years.
I particularly like these two paragraphs, which are towards the end of the Government North Sea Transition Deal.
Through the Deal, the UK’s oil and gas sector and the government will work together to deliver
the skills, innovation and new infrastructure required to decarbonise North Sea oil and gas
production as well as other carbon intensive industries. Not only will it transform the sector in
preparation for a net zero future, but it will also catalyse growth throughout the UK economy.
Delivering large-scale decarbonisation solutions will strengthen the position of the existing UK
energy sector supply chain in a net zero world, securing new high-value jobs in the UK,
supporting the development of regional economies and competing in clean energy export
markets.
By creating the North Sea Transition Deal, the government and the UK’s oil and gas sector are
ambitiously seeking to tackle the challenges of reaching net zero, while repositioning the UK’s
capabilities to serve the global energy industry. The Deal will take the UKCS through to
maturity and help the sector pivot towards new opportunities to keep the UK at the forefront of
the changing 21st century energy landscape.
I believe that developing Rosebank could enable the following.
- The oil and gas we need in the next few years would be obtained.
- The economic situation of the UK would be improved.
- The skills and techniques we need to decarbonise the UK would be delivered.
- Net-zero would be reached in the required time.
- Jobs will be created.
- The export of surplus oil and gas.
I strongly believe that developing the Rosebank field would be worthwhile to the UK.
I have some other thoughts.
Electrification Of Platforms
This page on the Equinor web site is entitled Electrification Of Platforms.
This paragraph explains what that means.
Electrification means replacing a fossil-based power supply with renewable energy, enabling a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Equinor is fully committed to reducing emissions from our offshore oil & gas production.
Note.
- Typically, platforms use gas turbine engines running on natural gas to provide the electricity needed on the platform.
- Platforms in the future will get their electricity from renewable sources like wind and will have an electricity cable to the shore.
- Rosebank will be powered in this way.
This document on the Equinor web site is entitled Rosebank: Investing In Energy Security And Powering A Just Transition, which has a section called How Is Rosebank Different?, where this is said.
The key difference of Rosebank compared to other oil fields is that it
aims to draw on new technology applications to help reduce carbon
emissions from its production, through FPSO electrification.Building offshore installations that can be powered by electricity reduces
reliance on gas powered generators which are the biggest source
of production emissions. The electrification of UKCS assets is vital to
meeting the North Sea Transition Deal’s target of reducing production
emissions by 50% by 2030, with a view to being net zero by 2050.Electrification of Rosebank is a long-term investment that will drastically
cut the carbon emissions caused by using the FPSO’s gas turbines for
power. Using electricity as a power source on Rosebank results in a
reduction in emissions equivalent to taking over 650,000 cars off the
road for a year compared with importing 300 million barrels of oil from
international sources.
Note.
- An FPSO is a Floating Production Storage And Offloading Unit, which is the method of production, that Equinor have chosen for the Rosebank field.
- If we are going to extract fossil fuels then we must extract them in a manner, that doesn’t add to the problem by emitting extra carbon dioxide.
- We will probably extract fossil fuels for some years yet, as they are the easiest route to some important chemicals.
- I also believe that we will increasingly find uses for any carbon dioxide captured in combustion and chemical processes.
I already know of a farmer, who heats greenhouses using a gas-powered combined heat and power unit, who pipes the carbon dioxide to the tomatoes in the greenhouses.
Despite what Greenpeace and others say, carbon dioxide is not all bad.
Energy Security
The last page of this document on the Equinor web site is entitled Rosebank: Investing In Energy Security And Powering A Just Transition, is entitled Energy Security.
Look at the numbers.
- £8.1 billion – Total field investment with 78% of this being spent in the UK
- 1600 – Estimated peak number of direct FTE jobs
- £24.1 billion – Estimated gross value add
- 8 % – Of UK oil production from Rosebank to 2030
- 39 million cubic feet per day – Average daily gas production over the first 10 years of field life, equivalent to almost twice Aberdeen’s daily gas consumption
- 250kt CO2 – Carbon avoided by reusing existing FPSO
And if you have time read it fully.
Could The Rosebank FPSO Be Powered By Floating Offshore Wind?
Floating wind turbines are now being installed around the world.
- They can use the largest turbines.
- Some designs perform in the roughest of seas.
- They have a high capacity factor.
- They are generally brought into a suitable port for servicing and updating.
- Floating wind farms can be connected to floating substations
There is at least 20 GW of floating wind turbines planned for UK waters.
So could an appropriately-sized floating wind farm be placed near the Rosebank FPSO to provide it with electricity?
I don’t see why not, if there were some energy storage in the system, for when the wind wasn’t blowing.
Floating Offshore Wind Close To The Rosebank FPSO Would Be Challenging
Rosebank is an oil and gas field 130 kilometres off the West coast of the Shetland Islands.
That would be a challenging location for floating wind turbines.
But solving the installation problems would set precedents for floating wind farms all over the world.
Could The Rosebank FPSO Handle Hydrogen From Floating Offshore Wind?
It would surely be possible to put an electrolyser in the system somewhere, so that hydrogen was also stored in the tanks of the FPSO.
I also don’t think it unfeasible, that twenty percent of hydrogen could be blended into the natural gas to create the low-carbon natural gas, that has been proposed by the HyDeploy project.
The Anonymous Widower 