My Mother And Her Brother Shared a Birthday
My mother was born on the 22nd December 1911 and her eldest brother; Leslie had been born on the same day about eight years earlier.
These two pictures were drawn by Leslie of my mother as a child and his wife Gladys in later life.
Cousins Reunited
Gladys was a first cousin to my mother and her brother.
My mother and her brother were close and always phoned each other on their birthday and had a long chat.
Last Sunday, which would have been their birthday., I was thinking about my mother and her brother and wondered, if any other siblings shared a birthday. Other than twins of course.
It’s explained in the Wikipedia entry for the Birthday Problem, where this is the first paragraph.
In probability theory, the birthday problem asks for the probability that, in a set of n randomly chosen people, at least two will share the same birthday. The birthday paradox refers to the counterintuitive fact that only 23 people are needed for that probability to exceed 50%.
It would appear that to be certain in siblings to have a fifty percent chance of having two birthdays the same, you would need twenty-three siblings. My mother and her bother were only one of nine, so they got good odds.
How To Protect The UK Population From Future Pandemics
The Times today has an article, which is entitled Flu Jab: Single-Shot Vaccine ‘Within Five Years’ Could Stop Future Pandemic.
This is the introductory paragraph of The Times article.
A single-shot vaccine against flu that would provide a lifetime of protection even against future mutations could be available in “five years or less”, scientists have said after making a breakthrough.
The article is very much a must-read, but I believe if used alongside a simple proven medical test, it could be even more effective.
Since 1997, when I was diagnosed as coeliac and started eating gluten-free food exclusively, I have never had a dose of flu.
I may have had one very mild dose of Covid-19, but I have never had a serious dose.
Research At The University Of Padua
This partial immunity to Covid-19 has been shown in a peer-reviewed scientific paper, by the University of Padua in Italy.
I discuss the Padua research in Risk Of COVID-19 In Celiac Disease Patients.
Mathematical Modelling Of Pandemics
As a control engineer, mathematical modeller and statistician, I believe that our herd immunity to future pandemics could be increased, if all new entries to the UK population, like babies and migrants, were tested for coeliac disease.
These days the coeliac test is just a blood test, that costs just a few pounds and I believe that a high percentage of gluten-free coeliacs in the UK population, because of their low susceptibility to flu pandemics, would slow the spread of the pandemic.
In a nuclear reactor non-radioactive carbon rods are often used to control the speed of the reaction.
I believe that non-susceptible coeliacs on gluten-free diets would perform the same function in the UK population.
Should Diagnosed Coeliacs Be Forced To Be Gluten-Free?
I would not force coeliacs to go gluten-free.
They would have to face up to the consequences, if they didn’t.
My son was an undiagnosed coeliac, who refused to get tested.
He died at 37 of pancreatic cancer, as his immune system was useless.
Coeliac disease and a gluten-free diet is a good wingman, but undiagnosed it can kill you!
Why Should Migrants Be Tested?
I hope they are, as some might have something nasty.
But if everyone was tested for a wide range of health and genetic conditions, could it act as a deterrent to come to the UK?
Oxford And Cambridge Compared On COVID-19
In Oxford And Cambridge Compared On COVID-19, I compared the COVID-19 rates of the two University cities.
- Oxford and Cambridge are very similar-sized cities and both ae surrounded by similar counties and countryside.
- During the pandemic, Oxford had a much higher COVID-19 rate than Cambridge.
From my experiences and observations in Cambridge, I believe that the city has a high level of coeliacs.
Why Does Cambridge Have A High Level Of Coeliacs?
I doubt, it is due to the genetics of the local population, as if it was, my coeliac disease would have been picked up earlier.
The two most likely causes are.
- Someone in the Health Authority decided to have a Whack-a-Coeliac policy.
- Addenbrooke’s Hospital, in conjunction with Cambridge University and the Sanger Centre were testing the accuracy of the newly-develop genetic test for coeliac disease.
Note.
- Both routes would have needed a streamlined endoscopy unit to test all those thought to be coeliac.
- I was tested twice in such a unit to prove that I was coeliac, after the genetic test showed, I probably was.
- Fit, younger patients were pushed to have the endoscopy without a sedative, which cut the number and cost of recovery beds and staff.
- My endoscopies were performed without a sedative, by a doctor working alone.
- I was able to drive home, a few minutes after the procedure.
It was a classic case of applying good old-fashioned time-and-motion to a test that would have to be applied to a large number of patients.
If Cambridge’s army of coeliacs helped the city take the edge of the pandemic, what would a Whack-a-Coeliac policy, do for other cities?
Hospital Pioneers Cancer Service For Over 70s That Saves Lives And Money
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article in The Times.
This is the sub-heading.
Treatment is adapted to take into account age-related illnesses, such as heart disease, diabetes and dementia.
These three paragraphs outline, what the Christie Hospital is doing.
The Christie Hospital in Manchester is pioneering a specialist cancer service for elderly patients under plans to tackle a “silver tsunami” of cases.
More than 200 patients have been treated by the new team, which was set up to meet the more complex care needs of an ageing population.
The service has nearly halved the number of unplanned hospital admissions among older cancer patients, improving survival and quality of life.
But it’s the graph that follows that I find interesting.
It shows the cancer incidence rate (per 100,000 population) in 2020 by gender and age at diagnosis.
I am a control engineer and statistician and one of the most interesting things in a graph like this is the rate of increase or in this graph’s case the rate of decrease, as the graph effectively has the present at the top.
I have used an old trick and looked at the difference between the groups and the difference between the difference.
Note.
- It seems that the rate of increase of cancer diagnosis with age seems to increase with ages of 60-64 and 25-29.
- This would seem to correspond to those born before 1960 and those born before 1995.
- As a coeliac, I know that the first test for coeliac disease, which used endoscopy was introduced around 1960.
- The modern genetic test for coeliac disease was developed in the 1990s.
Is it coincidence, that the rate of increase of cancer diagnosis with age seems to increase, when a better diagnosis for coeliac disease was introduced?
These are my thoughts!
Coeliac Disease And Me
I am coeliac and I was born in 1947. I wasn’t diagnosed as coeliac until 1997.
I was an unhealthy child, with all sorts of avenues being chased, so in the end they just took my tonsils out.
- It should be remembered, that there was no test for coeliac disease in children until 1960.
- I’ve also only met one coeliac older than me and both her parents were GPs and she was diagnosed by food elimination.
- In fact, I never met a coeliac until I was about 25. He was the two-year-old son of one of C’s friends.
At fifty, an elderly locum gave me a present of a blood test to clear up my long-term health problems. The results showed that my body had very little Vitamin B12. Injections didn’t improve the level, so my GP sent me to Addenbrooke’s.
It was a Monday and all the consultant did was ask a nurse to take several vials of blood. He didn’t ask me any relevant questions or even touch me.
On the Wednesday morning, I got a letter from the hospital saying I was probably coeliac and it would be confirmed by endoscopy.
I must have been one of the first to have been diagnosed by a genetic test on a sample of blood.
Coeliac Disease And My Youngest Son
My youngest son was born in 1972 and after my diagnosis, my late wife felt he was coeliac, as physically he was so like me. But neither him nor our other two sons would get themselves tested.
I am now sure he was coeliac, as his daughter was born with a congenital hernia of the diaphragm and Swedish research says can happen with coeliac fathers. Luckily, she was born in the Royal London Hospital and thanks to heroic surgery at a few days old, she survived and is now in her first year at Southampton University.
Sadly my youngest son died of pancreatic cancer in 2011.
Coeliac Disease And Cancer
Nottingham University have shown that if you are coeliac and stick to a gluten-free diet, you are twenty-five percent less likely to suffer from cancer.
Cancer in the Over Sixties
The following is an extract from A Thought On Deaths Of The Elderly From Covid-19, which I wrote in April 2020.
How many undiagnosed coeliacs are there in those over seventy, who because they are coeliacs, have a compromised immune system?
I would be undiagnosed but for that elderly locum!
How many other coeliacs are there in the UK population?
- Age UK has a figure of twelve million who are over 65 in the UK.
- If 1-in-100, as stated by Coeliac UK, in the UK are coeliac, that is 120,000 coeliacs over 65, who are too old to have been diagnosed as a child, because no test existed.
Note that as of today 177,388 have been diagnosed with Covid-19.
Could the drop in the cancer rate of those born before 1960 be because of the availability of a test for coeliac disease, so that if they were a sickly child like me, they would be diagnosed? As I said earlier diagnosed coeliacs have a lower cancer rate than the general population.
Cancer in the Under Thirties
I was diagnosed in 1997 by a genetic blood test and there is no doubt that I have coeliac disease.
As the test is so simple, I wonder what proportion of coeliacs born since the Millennium have been diagnosed.
And how does this contribute to the drop in cancer cases?
More Research Needs To Be Done
It is obvious to me, that research needs to be done into the link between undiagnosed coeliacs and cancer.
It might be prudent to test every cancer patient for coeliac disease. My GP told me, that the test is not expensive and generally gives the right result.
Thoughts On The Lucy Letby Case
I was 76 last week and I can recall few cases as horrific as the Lucy Letby case.
In East Kent Maternity Deaths: Babies Might Have Survived With Better Care, I put forward my views about how we can identify systematic problems in healthcare, whether it is down to serious malpractice or just incompetence.
ULEZ: Impact Of Mayor’s Expansion Questioned
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the sub-heading.
One in six cars registered in outer London did not meet Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) standards last year, according to figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders
These paragraphs outline the analysis.
The data was released following a Freedom of Information request by the BBC to Transport for London (TfL).
It comes amid a dispute over whether existing data used by City Hall and TfL is accurate.
However, London Mayor Sadiq Khan said the newly released data was unreliable.
From the end of August, all those driving vehicles within Greater London that do not meet ULEZ pollutant limits will face a £12.50 daily charge or a £180 fine.
I’m sure that any Professor of Statistics from London’s universities or an expert from the Royal Statistical Society, could give a definitive answer on the statistics.
But then Khan is a lawyer and will hide behind the law in this case, by claiming he is both judge and jury.
If Khan really cared about London’s air, he would have a hydrogen policy, which would enable London’s local cement, construction and refuse trucks to be replaced or converted to hydrogen, so that the city’s air improved.
It would also make it easier to introduce more hydrogen-powered buses.
Companies like Tesco and Marks & Spencer, who regularly run trucks into London, should be encouraged to convert their delivery trucks to zero-carbon, by adjustment of the ULEZ charges.
The ULEZ has been badly thought out and needs to be realigned with what is practical and reduces the pollution.
Norway’s Answer To Wind Power Intermittency Lies Offshore – Study
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the first paragraph.
SINTEF has revealed in its recent study that there is no statistical covariation or systematic correlation in time between the occurrence of offshore wind conditions in southern and northern Norway, and adds that this knowledge will increase the commercial value of Norwegian offshore wind energy.
It does seem lucky for the Norwegians, that their wind farms appear to be able to supply a more constant amount of electricity, than many of those against wind farms would have you believe.
I hope that a reputable UK agency or university, is doing a similar analysis for UK wind farms.
It’s Hugo Lloris vs Jordan Pickford And There’s Only One Winner
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on The Telegraph.
This is the introductory paragraph.
By most measures, Jordan Pickford has been the better keeper than Hugo Lloris this season — especially when it comes to penalties
The Telegraph uses statistics from a specialist goalkeeping statistics site, which is called Goalkeeper-XG.
So I would tend to put a high level of trust in their deductions.
I found the Telegraph article, when I was looking for any article about the two team captains, Harry Kane and Hugo Lloris, who both play for Tottenham Hotspur, where Lloris is captain.
I also suspect that in training.
- Harry Kane has probably scored more penalties than any other player has against Hugo Lloris.
- Hugo Lloris has probably saved more penalties than any other keeper from Harry Kane.
The two players probably know each other’s strengths and weaknesses well and in addition.
- Eric Dier of Tottenham has played many games in front of Lloris, is also in the England team.
- I suspect several of the England team have taken penalties or been in one-on-one situations with the French goalkeeper in Premier League games.
- Some England players may feel they have scores to settle, after Lloris denied them of a goal, because of a superb save.
All of this information, will be powerful in the hands and minds of England’s coaches and psychologists.
On the other hand, with the notable exception of Olivier Giroud, I suspect that only a handful of the French players have faced Jordan Pickford in a goal-scoring opportunity.
I feel that the battle of the goalkeepers will be key tonight.
Blood Clot Risk Eight Times Higher From Covid Than AstraZeneca Vaccine, Study Finds
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on The Telegraph.
This is the first two paragraphs.
The risk of a rare brain clot from coronavirus is approximately eight times greater the risk presented by the AstraZeneca jab, a University of Oxford study has found.
The research, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, and compared blood clot rates among 500,000 coronavirus patients with data from the roll-out of 34 million vaccine doses across Europe.
I will certainly be having my second AstraZeneca jab next Monday.
This press release on the Astra-Zeneca web site is entitled Oxford Phase III trials interim analysis results published in The Lancet.
This is an extract.
In addition to the Oxford led programme, AstraZeneca is conducting a large study in the US and globally. In total, Oxford University and AstraZeneca expect to enrol more than 60,000 participants globally.
The Telegraph article also says this.
The incidence of rates for cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) – a rare blood clot on the brain – is 39 per million coronavirus patients, while it is five per million recipients of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Note that five per million is 0.3 per 60,000.
Any participant, who got a blood clot in the AstraZeneca Phase III trial would have been a very unlucky person.
Those who say, that the AstraZeneca vaccine was rushed and that many more people should participated in the trials may have a point.
But countering that is my belief that data analysis has improved so much in the last twenty years that all the data on all the vaccines has been so thoroughly analysed by some of the best data analysts and analytic software, that most more common problems have been identified.
A Thought On Covid-19
I am a Control Engineer, Mathematical Modeller and Statistician and have been following the data since the pandemic started.
Consider.
- Systems like the pandemic want to get to an equilibrium. And preferably one where they are in control. The virus tries to infect more people, so they can pass it on.
- But anybody, who is immune to the virus acts as a moderator does in a nuclear reactor, to slow the reaction down. So the more, who are immune in the population the better.
- As of today, 2,713,563 have tested positive for the virus and sadly 75,431 have died. That means at least 2.6 million have had the virus and survived. Are these people now immune to the virus? If they are, can they be added to those who are vaccinated?
- Also, how many people have had the virus and were not tested, but treated it like they might a cold? Are these safe from the virus, a second time around?
- What about children, who seem to have lower susceptibility to the virus?
- We can add in by the end of this week over a million, who have received the vaccine.
- We are at the present time having about 350,000 positive tests in a week. If these people with positive tests isolate as they should, that will be breaking the transmission of a lot of carriers.
- And then if the vaccine makers deliver two million a week and they are all used, that takes a lot of people out of the mix.
- How many people are shielding or working from home and never giving the virus a chance to infect them? It must be a couple of million.
These are all big numbers, but most of them are on our side and not that of the virus.
I watched BBC News at six and Emma Vardy said that in Northern Ireland, the vaccine might be having a positive effect. I wouldn’t have expected that this early!
I am more optimistic, than I was before I started to write this post.
Could the combination of lockdown and increasing numbers of vaccinations cut the rate of transmission of the virus?
The Government’s Terrible COVID-19 Statistics
In an article in The Times today, Sir David Speigelhalter lambasts the Government over their collection of COVID-19 statistics.
I have been involved in the analysis of several very large databases and four factors improve the quality of the answers you get.
- The more records or in this case tests you have, the better. So I back David Speigelhalter! We should stop people on the street and test them!
- The more fields or pieces of data in each test you have, the better. So perhaps each test should be linked to your NHS record.
- The quality of the data is important. In my experience NHS scores about two out of five for quality as a lot of medical staff, often fill it in badly. In one case, I was looking for reasons for low birth weight babies and in many cases, the field was filled with 9.99 Kg.
- And then there’s the output of the data. I was taught how to display data for idiots, by the former Chief Accountant of a FTSE 500 company, who was working as the Chief Management Accountant of a Clearing Bank. He had found showing scatter diagrams with each branch as a single point on a large sheet, really got Branch Managers to think about what they are doing, if they weren’t running with the herd. These diagrams made problem branches stand out like the sorest of thumbs!
So where are the scatter diagrams for all of the Health Authorities in the UK, so everybody can see how their area, is doing against everybody else?
By the way, I trust Sir David, as we have the same birthday and share it with James Cameron, Jeff Thomson, Katherine Hamnett, Lawrence of Arabia, Menachem Begin and Madonna.
The Anonymous Widower 