America’s Looming Electricity Crisis Is Trump’s Achilles’ Heel
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article in the Telegraph.
This is the sub-heading.
Culture war banter and point-scoring have left Maga facing a self-inflicted energy shortage
These are the first three paragraphs.
The US is in danger of losing the global AI race for the most banal and careless of reasons: it is critically short of electricity.
The country is sitting on a neglected pre-modern grid that cannot meet surging power demand for data centres, cryptocurrencies, the reshoring of semiconductor plants and the proclaimed revival of the American industrial base.
Nor can it meet the needs for air conditioning through hotter and more humid summers. While we all talk about AI, the chief cause of rising electricity use last year was for cooling. Bitcoin mining took another 2pc of US power, for no productive purpose.
It looks like we can add simple arithmetic to the skills the Trump Administration lacks.
The Telegraph article and myself have some other thoughts.
The Planned Increase In Electricity Is A Fifth Of What’s Needed
This is a paragraph from the Telegraph.
The US Energy Department said in its Resource Adequacy Report in July that the planned increase in firm electricity supply is a fifth of what is needed by 2030.
In Renewable Power By 2030 In The UK, I stated that by 2030, the UK would add nearly 59 GW of offshore wind.
Surely, using the population size difference of four times, 240 GW of offshore wind, would do the USA nicely?
But, Trump doesn’t like wind turbines.
Texas Has A Shortage Of Electricity
These are two paragraphs from the Telegraph.
The Texas grid operator Ercot expects peak power demand in its region to soar from 87 gigawatts (GW) this year to 138 GW by 2030. This is physically impossible.
Texas passed a law in June giving the state emergency authority to cut off power to data centres. Ercot is already having to deploy “mobile generation plants” at exorbitant cost to avert blackouts even today.
It sounds pretty desperate.
Texas needs another 51 GW by 2030, which is less than we intend to delivery from just offshore wind.
If Little Great Britain can do it, then surely Texas can? After all, Texas is three almost times larger than the UK.
I get the idea, that someone isn’t doing any planning.
The United States Needs A Lot Of Transformers
These are three paragraphs from the Telegraph.
The National Infrastructure Advisory Council (Niac) says the average age of America’s 60 million large power transformers is 38 years. Many are beyond their design life.
The US supply chain is not capable of delivering the 12 million new transformers needed each year to keep the show on the road. The backlog has risen to four years. The cost of transformers has jumped 80pc since the pandemic.
There is an acute shortage of electrical steel needed to make them. This comes mostly from China, Japan, Korea or Germany. In his infinite wisdom, Trump has imposed 50pc tariffs on steel, aluminium and copper. That cost shock has yet to feed through.
The Niac says it is a similar tale for “other critical grid components such as conduit, smart meters, switchgear and high-voltage circuit breakers”.
It looks like, there’s another fine mess, you’ve got us in, Donny!
Maga Wants More Coal
These are three paragraphs from the Telegraph.
The quickest way to generate more power is to roll out wind and solar. Trump is actively intervening to obstruct this. Maga wants coal instead.
This week the administration announced $625m of taxpayer subsidy to “expand and reinvigorate” the coal industry. It will open new federal lands, slash the royalty fees for extracting coal, and lift curbs on mercury pollution.
“In addition to drill, baby drill, we need to mine, baby, mine,” said Doug Burgum, the interior secretary.
When it should be spin, baby, spin.
Conclusion
Read the article in full.
We certainly, don’t want anybody, with an energy policy like Trump, influencing the UK’s energy policy.
If Trump carries on like this, he’ll end up in a terrible mess.
UK Among Tri-Axle Zero-Emission Wrightbus StreetDeck Prospects
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on routeone.
This is the sub-heading.
Orders for new product ‘already lined up’ in Europe and the Far East, the manufacturer has said
These are the first two paragraphs.
Wrightbus sees UK sales opportunity for its new tri-axle zero-emission StreetDeck double-deck bus platform in addition to core Far Eastern markets for that class of vehicle, it says.
That was noted by CEO Jean-Marc Gales (pictured) when debuting prototype examples of the 6×2 bus that it says are “simultaneously” coming off production lines in Northern Ireland and Malaysia. The manufacturer adds that orders are “already lined up” for the product in Europe and the Far East.
I seem to remember that London’s electric trolleybuses used to have three axles.
So I asked Google AI if London’s trolleybuses did have three axles and got this reply.
Yes, London’s trolleybuses were predominantly three-axle vehicles. To accommodate their length and the power of their electric motors, most London trolleybuses, designed to replace trams, were built with three axles. This design allowed them to be larger and carry more passengers, similar to the trams they replaced.
So my memory was correct.
Where I live in De Beauvoir Town, the main North-South bus route is the 141 between London Bridge and Palmers Green.
- They are ten-year-old diesel hybrid buses.
- The route is busy and the buses are far too small.
- During my childhood, the route was the 641 trolleybus, which I used regularly.
- Southgate Road, where the trolleybuses ran is wider than most roads in London.
It would be ironic, if our inadequate 141 buses were to be replaced by new three-axle buses following some of the design rules of trolleybuses.
Is A Three-Axle Bus Better At Climbing Hills Than A Two-Axle?
In the UK, Bradford, Brighton and Sheffield are cities with hills.
If a three-axle bus is better at climbing hills, then this could be a big selling point.
The Chinese Won’t Be Pleased
This is said in the article.
The manufacturer adds that orders are “already lined up” for the product in Europe and the Far East
The Chinese won’t like Wrightbus stealing their markets.
Surgeon Invents Plastic-Reducing Urine Collection Pot
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the sub-heading.
A hospital specialist has invented a new product that manages to reduce plastic and simplify the process of testing urine.
These three introductory paragraphs, add more detail.
Consultant urologist Dr Nick Burns-Cox has been working on his own innovation, the Pee-In-Pot (PiP) for 10 years.
Made from bamboo and sugar cane, it removes four items from the current urine collection process, three of them plastic.
Mr Burns-Cox, who works at Musgrove Park Hospital in Taunton, said he hoped it would cut down the use of single-use plastic in the NHS and reduce the chance of errors.
I like the design of this simple device.
But, personally, I hope it becomes universal, as I have trouble giving urine samples.
I had my stroke in Hong Kong and the Chinese nurses, were so aggressive, when it came to taking urine samples, they have given me an aversion to them.
In my view the device could help the patient psychologically, at what could be a difficult time.
Wrightbus To Build 1,000 Zero-Emission Buses
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on The Times.
This is the sub-heading.
Northern Ireland company to ramp up production by 40% and recruit hundreds more employees as it also develops the UK’’s first long-distance hydrogen coach
These are the first two paragraphs, which add more detail.
Wrightbus, the Northern Ireland bus manufacturer, could be supplying as many as 1,000 zero-emission vehicles to depots around the UK as it increases production by 40 per cent over a two-year period and takes on hundreds more workers.
The company, best known for the redesigned 21st century take on the Routemaster ordered by the former mayor of London Boris Johnson, also announced it is to spend £5 million developing the UK’s first long-distance hydrogen coach capable of travelling 1,000km (621 miles) on a single recharging of its fuel cells.
These two paragraphs describe their production and employment plans.
Jean-Marc Gales, the former senior Peugeot director who is Wrightbus’s chief executive, said production at its Northern Ireland plant would go from 1,000 vehicles last year to 1,200 this year and 1,400 in 2026.
Over the same period the company’s workforce will grow from 1,500 to 2,500.
Peter Kyle, the secretary of state for science, innovation and technology, said this.
The level of innovation at Wrightbus and their quality standards have been recognised.
That is surely rare praise for a private company from a Labour Minster.
I first wrote about Wrightbus’s new hydrogen coach in early March, when I wrote Wrightbus Goes Back To The Future As It Relaunches The Contour Coach, which was based on this Wrightbus press release, which has the same title.
I said this in my post.
Wrightbus is entering the coach market for the first time in more than 30 years with the launch of two new vehicles in the next 18 months.
The first vehicle to hit the market is the Contour, a low-emission 55-seater coach that was launched at a customer showcase event today (March 5).
It’s a case of back to the future for Wrightbus, which last produced a Contour coach in 1987 before retiring the vehicle.
The second vehicle, a zero-emission hydrogen coach – which is under development in Ballymena, Northern Ireland – will be added to the Wrightbus coach range within the next 18 months to help drive decarbonisation of the sector.
The low emission Contour has a lead time of just six months from order, which is considerably faster than the current one-to-two-year average wait customers have come to expect from the sector. Featuring a Cummins Euro 6 400BHP X11 engine and a ZF automatic gearbox, the modern-day Contour has been built with comfort in mind, with up to 55 reclining seats – each with its own USB port – alongside other modern safety features. Competitively priced and available with or without PSVAR compliance, there is also the option of the vehicle being ‘pre-prepared’, protecting the vehicle’s ‘second life’ and flexibility.
The coach has a range of bespoke options for customers to choose from and is designed to maximise luggage space and functionality.
The low emission Contour coach was to have been built in China.
But events have moved on fast in the last month, with Trump and China trading insults on tariffs almost daily.
From today’s article in The Times and a press release from the Government, which is entitled Science Secretary Hails Wrightbus As Company Pledges £25 million To Bolster UK’s Green Transport Revolution And Drive Growth, it appears that the Chinese coach has been dropped.
Could the plan now be something like this?
- The low emission Contour coach will either be dropped, built in Ballymena or perhaps even built on JCB’s site in Texas.
- It might possibly be advantageous to build the coach in the United States to balance the tariffs and target the North American market.
- I would feel, that North America could be a lucrative market for the larger thousand kilometre coach.
- With the low emission Contour coach, Cummins get a chance to show the United States their excellent hydrogen technology.
- Trump can claim, that he’s brought jobs back to the United States.
- If Wrightbus and/or JCB build the low emission Contour coach, they could probably create a better product and get it to market earlier.
I suspect we’ll learn more of Wrightbus’s plans in the next few weeks.
Hovercraft
I’ve only ever ridden in a hovercraft once and that was in Hong Kong, when to celebrate the sale of Artemis to Lockheed, C and myself had a few days holiday in the colony.
We did the tourist trip to Canton, where you took a hovercraft up the Pearl River and then took a train back.
This is a Chinese video from YouTube of a hovercraft similar to the one on which we rode.
I asked Google, “What Killed The Hovercraft” and found two articles on the BBC.
The first was an emotional article, which was entitled Hovercraft Capsize Disaster Off Hampshire Coast Recalled 50 years On.
Just look what has happened in recent times to Boeing, after the problems with the 737 MAX.
The second is a more factual article, which is entitled What happened to passenger hovercraft?, where this is the sub-heading.
It’s 60 years since the British inventor Christopher Cockerell demonstrated the principles of the hovercraft using a cat food tin and a vacuum cleaner. Great things were promised for this mode of transport, but it never really caught on. Why?
I saw that demonstration.
These three paragraphs of the BBC article discuss the end of passenger hovercraft.
The cross-Channel service from Dover to Calais closed, external in 2000. The two vessels, the Princess Anne and the Princess Margaret, could carry only 52 cars. Larger ferries and cheaper-to-power catamarans, as well as the Channel Tunnel, proved too much competition. Routes in Japan and Sierra Leone have also since ceased.
“The problem militating against expansion has always been the noise for residents, who have to hear the hovercraft all day, 365 days a year,” says Warwick Jacobs, who runs the Hovercraft Museum, at Gosport, Hampshire. “The sound can travel quite a way, depending on the wind speed. We could have had hovercraft running on the Thames, for instance, but they’d have been too noisy.”
Recent models are quieter than their predecessors because of more efficient engines, while plans are in place to build electric-powered hovercraft, which will reduce the decibel count even further, Jacobs says.
Note.
- Over the years, I have been involved with anti-noise technology and even talked to McDonnell Douglas about it for one of their airliners.
- Electric propulsion and anti-noise technology are just two of those technologies that could transform the economics and unfriendly features of the hovercraft.
But what hovercraft need is a killer application in a high profile area, that gets engineers thinking.
Australian Volgren Rolls Out First Hydrogen Bus Based On Wrightbus Chassis Technology
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Sustainable Bus.
These four paragraphs outline the progress.
Australian bus bodybuilder Volgren is rolling out of production a first hydrogen-powered bus model manufactured in cooperation with Northern Irish bus manufacturer Wrightbus.
Back in 2019, Volgren announced launch of its first battery-electric on BYD chassis. The deal with Wrightbus for fuel cell bus manufacturing in Australia dates back to May 2022.
With over 150 zero-emission buses already in operation, spanning six variants of both battery-electric and fuel-cell technologies, this hydrogen-powered bus represents the latest addition in Volgren’s offer.
A second hydrogen bus is already in production and will be delivered to the customer in the coming months, Volgren says.
It will be interesting to see how this deal develops.
Will it follow the successful path set by some of JCB’s deals around the world, or will the Chinese feel Australia is their patch and find a way to kick Wrightbus and its technology, out of the country?
Korean Hydrogen Bus Adoption Emerging To Block Low-Priced Electric Buses From China
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on BusinessKorea.
These are the first two paragraphs.
Major Korean business groups such as Samsung, SK, Hyundai Motor, and POSCO are expanding the introduction of hydrogen buses. They are more efficient than electric buses, and can run 635 kilometers on a single charge, making them suitable for long-distance commuting. Expanding hydrogen mobility, including buses, is considered the first step in building an entire hydrogen ecosystem.
SK Group is one of the most active companies in expanding hydrogen buses. According to SK Group on May 26, SK siltron has decided to replace its commuter buses for employees of its Gumi plant in North Gyeongsang Province with hydrogen buses. Additional deployments are under consideration after a pilot run in the first half of the year. In early May, SK hynix introduced three of the Universe model, Hyundai’s hydrogen bus for commuting. SK E&S recently completed the world’s largest liquefied hydrogen plant in Incheon and plans to soon expand its hydrogen refueling stations nationwide to 20.
The Korean bus seem to have developed a strategy to protect themselves from the Chinese.
I have a few thoughts.
Korea And HiiROC
Hyundai and Kia have joined Centrica in taking stakes in Hull-based startup HiiROC, which I wrote about in Meet HiiROC, The Startup Making Low-Cost Hydrogen Free From Emissions.
London’s Future Bus Fleet
There are rumours on the Internet that Sadiq Khan, will replace all London’s buses with new Chinese buses.
How will I get around, as I don’t ride in anything that was made in China?
Conclusion
We live in interesting times.
Crown Estate To Spend £1.5bn On New Laboratories
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on The Times.
These three paragraphs introduce the Crown Estate’s plan.
The Crown Estate is to spend £1.5 billion over the next decade building more laboratories nationwide and will start by redeveloping the old Debenhams store in Oxford city centre.
The King’s property company, which looks after the royal family’s £16 billion historic land portfolio, will invest £125 million to buy the former department store and will turn it into laboratory space.
The building has been empty for omore than three years, having closed down in early 2021 after Debenhams collapsed during the pandemic. The Crown has bought a long leasehold of the store from DTZ Investors, the freeholder, which is keeping the street-level retail units. Subject to planning, construction is expected to start at the site next year, with the labs expected to be fully operational in 2027 or 2028.
This looks very much like a smaller version of British Land’s plan for the Euston Tower, which I wrote about in British Land Unveils Plans To Transform London’s Euston Tower Into A Life Sciences And Innovation Hub.
These are my thoughts.
Helping Start-Ups
I have been involved with perhaps half a dozen start-up ventures. Two were very successful and the others generally scraped along or just failed.
One common theme, was the lack of small convenient premises, where perhaps up to a dozen people could work.
- I don’t know Oxford well, but I would assume that the Debenhams site, is good for public transport and cycle parking.
- I also hope there’s a good real ale pub nearby, for some productive group thinking!
If this venture from Crown Estate helps start-ups to get over the first difficult hurdle, then it will be a development to be welcomed.
Location, Location, Location
It has been said, that the three most important things in property development are location, location and location.
This 3D Google Map shows the approximate location of the Debenhams building.
Note.
- The red arrow indicates a pub called the Wig and Pen , which is on the opposite side of George Street to the Debenhams building.
- The railway with its excellent connections runs North-South down the Western edge of the map.
- I estimate that walking distance to the station is about 500-600 metres.
I shall be going to Oxford in the next couple of days to take some pictures of the building and the walk.
We Can’t Have Too Many Laboratories
The British and the sort of people we attract to these isles seem to be born innovators and inventors.
My father’s male line is Jewish and my paternal great-great-great-grandfather had to leave his home city of Königsberg in East Prussia for the sole reasons he was eighteen, male and Jewish. As both Königsberg and London, were on the trading routes of the Hanseatic League, he probably just got on a ship. As he was a trained tailor, he set up in business in Bexley.
My mother’s male line is Huguenot and somewhere in the past, one of her ancestors left France for England. My grandfather was an engraver, which is a common Huguenot craft. Intriguingly, my mother had very French brown eyes.
Why did my ancestors come here?
It was probably a choice between escape to the UK or die!
This Wikipedia entry, which us entitled History of the Jews in Königsberg, gives a lot of detail.
Note.
- My ancestor left Königsberg around 1800.
- He probably brought my coeliac disease with him.
- In 1942, many of the Jews remaining in Königsberg were sent to the Nazi concentration camps.
- About 2,000 Jews remain in Königsberg, which is now Kaliningrad in Russia.
I am an atheist, but some years ago, I did a computing job for a devout Orthodox Jewish oncologist and he felt my personal philosophy was very much similar to his.
This Wikipedia entry, which is entitled Huguenots, gives a brief history of the Huguenots.
Whatever you’re attitude to immigration, you can’t deny these facts.
- Immigration increases the population.
- As the population increases, we’re going to need more innovation to maintain a good standard of living.
- Just as we need more places to house immigrants, we also need more places, where they can work.
- Immigration brings in those with all types of morals, sexualities and intelligences.
- Like the Jews and Huguenots of over two centuries ago, some emigrants will dream of using their skills and intelligence to start a successful business.
- It is likely, that some immigrants, who came here to study, might also want to stay on and seek employment here, using the skills they’ve learned and acquired. Some may even start successful businesses.
I also wonder, if immigration is difficult, does this mean, that the intelligent and resourceful are likely to be successful migrants. I heard this theory from a Chinese lady, who started her immigration to the UK, by swimming from mainland China to Hong Kong.
I feel, that unless we are prepared to ban immigration completely, not allow students to come here and study and be prepared to accept our current standard of living for the future, then we will need more laboratories and suitable places for entrepreneurs to start new businesses.
Conclusion
The Crown Estate appears to be getting more entrepreneurial.
In UK Unveils GBP 50 Million Fund To Boost Offshore Wind Supply Chain, I describe how they6 are using funds to accelerate the building of wind farms in theCetic Sea.
Has the King changed the boss or the rules?
Or have they employed a world-class mathematical modeller?
It is my experience, that modelling financial systems, can bring surprising results.
Building Inside Mountains: Global Demand For Pumped Hydroelectric Storage Soars
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Construction-Europe.
This is the sub-heading.
Pumped hydroelectric storage plants around the world have been secretly storing electricity in remote mountain lakes for the last century. But the switch to renewable energy sources is prompting a surge in new construction.
These two paragraphs introduce the article.
Looking out over the ragged beauty of the Scottish Highlands, Coire Glas, a horseshoe-shaped valley holding a clear mountain lake above the shores of Loch Lochy, seems like an unlikely spot to build a megaproject.
In this remote location, surrounded by clumps of pine trees, a team of construction workers from contractor Strabag are tunnelling their way through the rock which they hope will form part of a vast new power storage facility.
The article is a must-read that talks about pumped storage hydroelectricity in general and SSE Renewables’s 1500MW/30 GWh Coire Glas power station in particular.
The Future Of Pumped Hydroelectric Storage
These two paragraphs from the article give a glimpse into the future.
According to the International Energy Agency, global pumped storage capacity is set to expand by 56% to reach more than 270 GW by 2026, with the biggest growth in India and China.
Current pumped storage megaprojects currently in construction include the Kannagawa Hydropower Plant near Minamiaki in Japan which when fully completed in 2032 is expected to have a total installed capacity of 2,820MW; and Snowy Hydro 2.0 in New South Wales, Australia, which is currently expected to complete in 2028.
Note.
- I can count two Indian and ninety Chinese systems under construction. All have a capacity of upwards of one GW.
- The Kannagawa Hydropower Plant appears to be the largest with a capacity of 2.82 GW. The Japanese are keeping quiet about the storage capacity.
- The Snowy Hydro 2.0 has a capacity of 2 GW and a storage capacity of 350 GWh.
- The Wikipedia entry for Snowy Hydro 2.0 states that it is the largest renewable energy project under construction in Australia.
Against this onslaught of massive systems, SSE Renewables are pitching the 1500MW/30 GWh Coire Glas and the 252MW/25 GWh Loch Sloy systems.
Pumped hydroelectric storage will have a big part to play in decarbonising the world. Even in little old and relatively flat UK.
Singapore Nods To 1.2 GW Of Low-Carbon Electricity Imports From Vietnam
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
Singapore’s Energy Market Authority (EMA) has granted conditional approval to Sembcorp Utilities (SCU), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sembcorp Industries, to import 1.2 GW of low-carbon electricity, including offshore wind power, from Vietnam
This is the first paragraph.
The conditional approval means the project by SCU has been preliminarily assessed to be technically and commercially viable. The approval facilitates the process of obtaining necessary regulatory nods and licences for the project.
So now the real planning can begin.
This map shows Singapore and Vietnam.
The article says this about the electricity connection.
The low-carbon electricity is planned to be transmitted from Vietnam to Singapore via new subsea cables that will span a distance of around 1,000 kilometres.
My only worry about this project, is will China object to wind farms in the South China Sea, which they seem to increasingly regard as solely belonging to them.
I have a few thoughts.
Singapore’s Energy Import Policy
These last two paragraphs of the article describe Singapore’s energy import policy.
In 2021, Singapore unveiled its plans to import up to 4 GW of low-carbon electricity by 2035.
To date, EMA has granted conditional approvals to projects from various sources, comprising 2 GW from Indonesia, 1 GW from Cambodia, and 1.2 GW from Vietnam.
Note.
- 4.2 GW of interconnectors will be available from Indonesia, Cambodia and Vietnam.
- In 2022, Singapore’s total electricity consumption was 54.9 TWh, according to the Singapore government.
- 54.9 TWh averaged out over the year is 6.3 GW.
- According to Wikipedia, 95 % of their electricity is generated by gas.
It looks like Singapore will will be needing to import more energy.
Will Developing Countries Benefit From Energy Exports?
Singapore is purchasing electricity from its neighbours in this example.
I believe that there are many countries around the world, who will be able to develop energy exports based on renewable energy.
Conclusion
We will see lots more projects like this.
The Anonymous Widower 