Will We Run Out Of Power This Winter?
Someone asked me if we will run out of power, if Vlad the Mad cuts all the gas to Western Europe.
This was my reply.
It appears that this year, 3.2 GW of new offshore wind farms could start producing electricity, followed by similar amounts in both 2023 and 2024.
One of those to come on stream about now is the 1.4 GW Hornsea 2 wind farm!
The follow-up 2.9 GW Hornsea 3, signed a contract last week for delivery in 2026/27.
Moray East in Scotland and Triton Knoll off Lincolnshire, are also scheduled to come on stream this year and they’re around 900 MW each.
As someone, who used to write project management software, I hope the companies building these fields have enough resources, in terms of people, boats, cranes and money. But as the companies are all the Shells of the wind industry, I would hope they have got their sums right.
What About The Contracts for Difference Awarded In Allocation Round 4?
We are currently fighting two wars at the moment.
- The main war in Ukraine, where we are giving that unfortunate country all the help we can.
- The secondary war in the UK against energy prices.
Would it help our cause in both wars, if we produced more energy?
- More renewable energy would reduce our dependence on imported gas.
- The gas saved could go to Europe.
- Europe would not be buying Vlad the Mad’s bloodstained gas.
- Replacing gas with solar and wind power might reduce energy prices.
If I put myself in the position of a struggling farmer with a contract for difference to build a solar farm on a poor field, I would want that farm to be earning money as soon as possible.
- Now that I have the contract can I start assembling that solar farm?
- Similar arguments can probably be used for onshore wind, which must be easier to assemble, than offshore wind.
- I don’t think that the hard-pressed energy suppliers would bother, if they received some quality cheap electricity earlier than they expected.
- Obviously, all the cables and the substations would need to be in place.
So I think that it is reasonable to assume, that energy might ramp up quicker than expected.
It could even be more front-loaded, if all the installers got a shift on.
Every little helps!
New Renewable Energy In 2023?
These wind farms are scheduled for commissioning in 2023.
- Neart Na Gaoithe – 450 MW
- Sofia Offshore Wind Farm – 1400 MW
- Seagreen Phase 1 – 1075 MW
We could see 2925 MW of offshore wind power commissioned in 2023.
New Renewable Energy In 2024?
These renewable energy sources are scheduled for commissioning in 2024.
- Dogger Bank A – 1200 MW
- Round 4 Solar – 125.7 MW
- Dogger Bank B – 1200 MW
- Dogger Bank C – 1200 MW
Note, where a windfarm is given a commissioning date of 2023/24 in Wikipedia , I will put it in 2024.
We could see 3726 MW of renewable energy commissioned in 2024.
New Renewable Energy In 2025?
These renewable energy sources are scheduled for commissioning in 2025.
- Moray West – 1200 MW
- Round 4 Solar – 1958 MW
- Round 4 Onshore Wind – 888 MW
- Round 4 Energy from Waste – 30 MW
- Vanguard Boreas Phase 1 – 1400 GW
We could see 6476 MW of renewable energy commissioned in 2025.
New Renewable Energy In 2026?
These renewable energy sources are scheduled for commissioning in 2026.
- East Anglia 1 North – 800 MW
- East Anglia 2 – 900 MW
- Round 4 Tidal Stream – 5.62 MW
We could see 1705 MW of renewable energy commissioned in 2026.
New Renewable Energy In 2027?
These renewable energy sources are scheduled for commissioning in 2027.
- Round 4 Tidal Stream – 35.2 MW
- Round 4 Floating Offshore Wind – 32 MW
- Round 4 Offshore Wind – 5594 MW
- Hornsea 3 Offshore Wind – 2852 MW
- Hinckley Point C Nuclear – 3,260 MW
We could see 13173 MW of renewable energy commissioned in 2027.
Too Much Electricity!
Summarising the figures for new capacity gives.
- 2022 – 3200 MW
- 2023 – 2925 MW
- 3024 – 3726 MW
- 2025 – 6476 MW
- 2026 – 1705 MW
- 2027 – 11773 MW
This totals to 28554 MW.
One problem we may have is too much electricity and as we are not blessed with much storage in the UK, where will be able to put it?
In a strange way, Vlad the Mad may solve the problem, by cutting off Europe’s gas.
We have a few interconnectors, where we can export the electricity to allow the Belgians, Dutch, French and the Germans to have a shower.
- BritNed – 1 GW – Isle of Grain and Rotterdam
- ElecLink – 1 GW – England and France through the Channel Tunnel.
- HVDC Cross-Channel – 2 GW – England and France
- IFA-2 – 1 GW – England and France
- Nemo Link – 1 GW – Richborough and Zeebrugge
- North Sea Link – 1.4 GW – Blyth and Norway
- Viking Link – 1.4 GW – Lincolnshire and Denmark
It looks like construction may be starting soon for another interconnector. NeuConnect will have a capacity of 1.4 GW between the Isle of Grain and Wilhelmshaven.
Conclusion
If I was the German Chancellor, I’d do everything in my power to accelerate the construction of NeuConnect!
Green Hydrogen Magnate Forrest Sanctioned By Russia After Calling Putin A ‘Murderer’
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Recharge.
Andrew Forest’s reply or the part that can be printed included.
You’re not worth talking to unless you’ve been sanctioned
I think that to many experts, Forrest’s plans for green hydrogen are one of the biggest threats to Russia’s oil industry.
Namibia Proposes Green Hydrogen Supply To EU To Replace Russian Oil And Gas
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on H2 Fuel News.
These paragraphs explain the plan.
The African country has considerable wind and sunshine resources available, providing the opportunity to use renewable energy for the production of H2. Namibia is located along the African South Atlantic coastline and is among the world’s driest countries. Its 3,500 hours of sunshine per year mean that solar panels will be able to absorb a tremendous amount of energy, without much unexpected downtime.
That energy will be used for producing yellow H2, a form of green (renewable) H2 made using electrolysers powered by solar electricity. The electrolyser will split seawater, another abundant resource for the country due to its position on the map. As a result, it has the potential to offer the European Union a clean fuel source that can help it to simultaneously combat the energy crisis and the climate crisis.
Note.
- Liquid hydrogen will be shipped to Europe by tanker.
- I don’t think Vlad the Mad will like the plan!
- How many other countries have the resources like Namibia to become hydrogen exporters?
This plan was proposed at the World Economic Forum at Davos.
Ukraine’s New Stealth Weapon
This article on Electrek is entitled Ukraine Is Now Using These 200-Mile-Range Electric Bikes With NLAW Rockets To Take Out Russian Tanks.
This is the first paragraph.
Ukrainian electric motorbike company Delfast has seen its electric bikes used for some vastly diverse tasks, such as breaking Guinness World Records and outfitting Mexican police. But their latest use is perhaps the bikes’ most important mission yet: helping Ukrainian soldiers strike a David vs. Goliath blow against Russia’s barbaric invasion of their country.
How do you protect your tank against a silent by deadly soldier coming to get you with a Belfast-made NLAW on a Ukrainian Delfast at 50 mph?
I suspect a fit well-trained soldier can outride a Russian T72 tank, hide in the forest and setup his NLAW. Now that’s humiliation!
It also appears from these two paragraphs, that Ukrainian snipers are also enjoying the advantages of electric bikes.
Another local Ukrainian company, ELEEK, has also supplied its country’s armed forces with silent, powerful electric motorbikes for use on the battlefield.
In that case, the electric motorbikes were requested for use by sniper teams.
The Ukranians seem to be a very inventive nation.
Call For Rail Sector To Mobilise To Get Ukrainian Agricultural Exports Moving
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Railway Gazette.
These are the first two paragraphs.
Rail has a central role in the European Commission’s plan to establish ‘Solidarity Lanes’ for the transport of Ukrainian agricultural exports which would normally use the Black Sea ports that are being blockaded by Russia.
Announcing its plan, the commission said the Russian blockade is threatening global food security, creating an urgent need for alternative transport routes. Ukraine is the largest exporter of sunflower oil (50% of world exports), the third largest of rapeseed (20%) and barley (18%), the fourth of maize (16%) and the fifth of wheat (12%).
It certainly is a big problem and not just for Ukraine, but for any country that habitually buys these agricultural products from Ukraine.
But it will probably require a lot of investment to solve.
These are points from the article.
- Trains handling 1,400 tonnes are possible.
- The average waiting time for wagons at the Ukrainian border is sixteen days.
- The capacity of existing freight corridors must be expanded and new ones must be created.
After reading the whole article, it does seem that an EU plan is being created.
I have my thoughts.
Gauge Change
Consider.
- There will be a gauge change between standard and Russian gauge.
- Spanish company; Talgo has developed the technology, so that trains can run on both gauges and even change between gauges at a slow speed.
- The technology is used on the Strizh train, which runs passenger services between Berlin and Moscow via Warsaw.
I feel it is likely, that Talgo could develop freight wagons to move the agricultural products between Ukraine and ports in Poland or Germany.
Talgo’s Plans
In A Spaniard In The Works!, I outlined Talgo’s plans, which included building a factory at Longannet in Scotland.
But their plans must have been disrupted, as the company did not secure the High Speed Two Classic-Compatible rolling stock contract.
On the other hand Longannet could be an ideal place to build trains for Eastern Europe. They could go on a ferry to Gdansk, Helsinki or other ports.
Could Fortescue Future Industries’ Green Hydrogen Help Europe Ditch Russian Energy?
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Motley Fool Australia.
This is the first paragraph.
Green hydrogen may help interrupt the Kremlin’s ability to conduct “war games”, says Fortescue chief Andrew Forrest.
I very much think that Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest is right.
My last three hydrogen articles were.
- Poland May Become A Green Hydrogen Tycoon.
- Will The Orkney Become A Major Green Hydrogen Production Centre?
- Wind And Solar Boom Will Bring Energy Surplus.
If the projects in these articles don’t blow the bottom out of the market for Russia’s bloodstained gas, with a little bit of help from Twiggy’s hydrogen kanganaut, then I’ll be very surprised. Especially, as countries like Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Jordan, Japan, Kenya, Namibia, Morocco, Norway, Papua New Guinea, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and the United States are all planning to produce green hydrogen in large quantities.
A Massive Task For Ukraine?
After the Russians are thrown out of Ukraine, it will be a massive task to rebuild Ukraine.
But one of Ukraine’s traditional industries can also be used to transform the world.
The Transformation Of Energy Production To Floating Offshore Wind
I believe that over the next few years, we will see an enormous transformation of zero-carbon energy to floating offshore wind.
- The floating offshore wind industry is planning to use the next-generation of larger wind turbines of up to 20 MW.
- These turbines are too large and intrusive to install onshore.
- Floating wind turbines generally have a higher capacity factor of over 50 %, than onshore turbines.
- Each wind turbine will be mounted on a substantial semi-submersible float, which is built out of large-diameter steel tubes
- The wind turbines are of the same design, as those installed onshore.
- There are several designs for the floats and they are usually based on designs that have worked in the oil and gas industry.
The world will need millions of floating turbines and an equivalent number of floats to fully decarbonise.
Could The Ukrainians Build The Floats?
Consider.
- The Russians have destroyed Mariupol, whilst the Ukrainians have defended the city in the steelworks.
- Mariupol used to have a large shipbuilding industry.
- Ukraine is in the world’s top ten of iron ore producers.
- There is a lot of scrap steel available in the Ukraine, that the Russians have left behind.
- The Ukrainians probably have a lot of workers, who have the skills to build the floats.
I’m sure something could be arranged for the benefit of everybody.
Even A Relic Of The True Cross Couldn’t Keep The 12,500-ton Moskva Afloat
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on The Times.
The relic and what happened to it, is described in this extract.
More unusually, it was also carrying a purported splinter from the cross on which Jesus Christ was said to have been crucified. The holy relic was purchased from a Catholic church in Europe by Russian Orthodox Christian businessmen and handed over to the cruiser in 2020. Just a few millimeters across, it was stored inside a 19th-century cross that was kept in the cruiser’s on-board chapel, the Tass news agency reported.
The article also claimed that an unnamed Russian businessman paid $40 million for the relic and that Putin’s admirals believed the thin sliver of wood deflected missiles and torpedoes.
This is comedy gold of the highest class.
It is time to unleash the dogs of comedy!
Is Volodymyr Zelenskyy Planning A Mosquito Moment?
Just imagine the scene in Berlin on January 30th, 1943, which was the tenth anniversary of Adolf Hitler’s rise to power.
A celebration had been planned with speeches by Goering and Goebbels to the Nazi faithful, which would be broadcast over the radio.
But precisely as Goering started to speak, three RAF Mosquitos arrived over Berlin.
This article on The Smithsonian Magazine, which is entitled When the RAF Buzzed Over Germany to Drown Out Nazi Broadcasts, describes the interruption like this.
When the bombs and the British engines intruded on the broadcast of Goering’s speech, radio engineers cut his feed and scrambled for safety. A bewildered German public instead heard the cacophony of bombers, which was soon replaced on their radios with a crackly recording of marching band music. It was more than an hour before a furious Goering returned to the airwaves.
Hours later, three more Mosquitos, gave Goebbels a similar treatment.
Wikipedia gives this quote from Goering about the Mosquito.
In 1940 I could at least fly as far as Glasgow in most of my aircraft, but not now! It makes me furious when I see the Mosquito. I turn green and yellow with envy. The British, who can afford aluminium better than we can, knock together a beautiful wooden aircraft that every piano factory over there is building, and they give it a speed which they have now increased yet again. What do you make of that? There is nothing the British do not have. They have the geniuses and we have the nincompoops. After the war is over I’m going to buy a British radio set – then at least I’ll own something that has always worked.
He was lecturing a group of German aircraft manufacturers.
It has been reported that Vlad the Mad is planning a spectacular parade on Victory Day, which is May 9th, 2022.
I can imagine that Ukrainian planners are working on ways to interrupt any speeches.
A drone spraying blue and yellow paint would be intensely funny and totally within the expertise of high-quality special forces.
Armoured Vehicles For Ukraine
I have just listened to extracts of the press conference by Boris and Olaf on the BBC and there was talk of boxers.
Not the Mayor of Kyiv, the admirable Vitali Klitschko, but the German-produced armoured fighting vehicle.
Looking at the Wikipedia entry for the Boxer, it states that up to 1500 Boxers for the British Army will start to be delivered from an updated BAe factory in Telford this year, for entry into service in 2023. So with two factories in Europe and another in Australia, will this allow older armoured vehicles to be passed on to Ukraine?
Australia has already stated they will send the Ukraine twenty of their thousand Bushmasters.
Perhaps we could send Ukraine some Mastiffs.
The Anonymous Widower 