Is Match Of The Day Better Without The Chattering?
The BBC have just announced that last night’s Match of the Day-Lite had a million more viewers than last week’s full-fat edition.
I watched last night’s program and enjoyed it.
Perhaps, if the BBC wants to save money, they could go to a lite-format for MotD.
And whilst, they’re at it if they want more viewers, why not do MotD editions for the three other divisions?
Diversifying A US$200 billion Market: The Alternatives To Li-ion Batteries For Grid-Scale Energy Storage
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Energy Storage News.
This is the introductory paragraph.
The global need for grid-scale energy storage will rise rapidly in the coming years as the transition away from fossil fuels accelerates. Energy storage can help meet the need for reliability and resilience on the grid, but lithium-ion is not the only option, writes Oliver Warren of climate and ESG-focused investment bank and advisory group DAI Magister.
Oliver starts by saying we need to ramp up capacity.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), to decarbonise electricity globally the world’s energy storage capacity must increase by a factor of 40x+ by 2030, reaching a total of 700 GW, or around 25% of global electricity usage (23,000TWh per annum). For comparison, this would be like swelling the size of the UK’s land to that of the USA.
Similar to how “nobody ever gets fired for buying IBM”, lithium-ion holds a similar place in grid scale electrical storage today.
And just as IBM did in the last decades of the last century, the builders of lithium-ion will fight back.
He then lists the problems of grid-scale lithium-ion batteries.
- Shortage of cobalt.
- Toxic and polluting extraction of some much needed metals and rare earths from unstable countries.
- Lack of capacity to load follow.
- Limited lifespan.
He does suggest vehicle-to-grid can provide 7TWh of storage by 2030, but it has similar problems to lithium-ion grid scale batteries.
Finally, he covers these what he considers several viable methods of energy storage in detail.
He introduces them with this paragraph.
No single killer application or technology exists to get the job done. Diversification is key with success dependent on the wide-scale adoption of multiple grid-scale energy storage solutions.
- Energy Dome – Italy – Stylish Use of CO2
- Augwind Energy – Israel – Stores Energy As Compressed Air Underground
- Cheesecake Energy – UK – Stores Energy As Heat And Compressed Air
- Highview Power – UK – Stores Energy As Liquefied Air
- Ocean Grazer – Netherlands – Ocean Battery
- RheEnergise – UK – High Density Hydro
- Lumenion – Germany/Japan – Stores Energy As Heat
- Energy Vault – Switzerland – Raising And Lowering Of Weights
Note.
- All systems are environmentally-friendly and use readily-available materials like air, water, sea-water, steel and concrete for their systems.
- The most exotic materials used are probably in the control computers.
- Some systems use readily-available proven turbo-machinery.
- Most systems appear to be scalable.
- All systems would appear to have a working life measured in decades.
- I would expect that most well-educated teenagers could understand how these systems worked.
Only Augwind Energy and Lumenion are new to me.
He finally sums up the economics and the market potential.
Our ability to expand energy storage capacity is one of the most pressing issues that will determine whether this defining ‘transitional’ decade is a success. But we’ll need to invest wisely into the right technologies that get the greatest bang for the buck (in terms of GWh capacity and return on capital) given the limited lifespan of Li-Ion and the decarbonisation of the grid.
At a current capital cost of US$2,000 per kW quoted by the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for 6-hour Li-ion battery storage, the 700GW of capacity needed by 2030 equates to around a US$1.5 trillion market over the coming decade, making it worth nearly US$200 billion a year.
The Energy Storage News article is a comprehensive must read for anyone, who is considering purchasing or investing in energy storage.
I have some further thoughts.
From My Experience Would I Add Any Other Systems?
I would add the following.
- Form Energy, because its iron-air battery is well-backed financially.
- Gravitricity, because it can use disused mine shafts to store energy and the world has lots of those.
- STORE Consortium, because its 3D-printed concrete hemispheres, that store energy using pressurised sea-water can be placed within a wind farm.
I also suspect that someone will come up with an energy storage system based on tidal range.
Finance
When we started Metier Management Systems, finance to breakout from the first initial sales was a problem. We solved the problem with good financial planning and an innovative bank manager who believed us all the way.
David, was a rogue, but he was a rogue on the side of the angels. Long after Metier, he even came to my fiftieth birthday party.
David would have found a way to fund any of these systems, as they tick all the boxes of demonstrated, environmentally-friendly, safe and understandable. They are also likely to be bought by companies, governments and organisations with a high net value, a very respectable reputation and/or large amounts of money.
I also think, that just as we did with the original Artemis project management system, some of these systems can be leased to the operators.
Second-Use Of Systems
Several of these systems could be moved on to a new location, if say they were supporting an industry that failed.
That would surely help the financing of systems.
Floating Offshore Wind Could Reach Full Commercialisation By 2035, Research Says
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub-heading.
Floating offshore wind could reach full commercialisation by 2035, said 60 per cent of respondents in the latest research that was done by DNV, with 25 per cent believing it will be as early as 2030.
I’ll go along with that, but as a serial disruptive innovator, I believe full commercialisation could be earlier than 2027.
It will be for these reasons.
Capacity Factor
There is reason to believe from the figures from existing floating wind turbines, that the capacity factor is very good and could be higher than those of turbines with fixed foundations.
Wikipedia says this about the world’s first commercial floating offshore windfarm; Hywind Scotland.
In its first 5 years of operation it averaged a capacity factor of 54%, sometimes in 10 meter waves.
If other floating technologies show as good capacities as this, then the technology may well find it easier to attract finance.
Design
We have only seen a couple of designs deployed; Hywind and WindFloat.
There will be plenty more to come.
This visualisation shows five D-Floaters being transported on a ship.
Note.
- D-Floaters are being developed by Bassoe Technology.
- As many floats will be manufactured, a long way from their final mooring, why not make them easy to transport.
- Other companies are developing floats that can be bolted or welded together from standard components.
I wouldn’t be surprised if one design came to dominate the market.
This might be a good thing, as it would surely speed up deployment of floating wind farms.
Construction And Installation
This video shows the construction and installation if Principle Power‘s, Windfloat prototype.
Note.
- All the construction and assembly is done in a dock with a suitable crane.
- This is much easier than doing it the assembly out at sea, as has to be done with turbines with fixed foundations.
- I suspect that with the best design of float and turbine, high rates of turbine assembly can be achieved.
- Health and Safety will prefer this type of assembly.
I suspect other floating wind turbines will be similarly assembled.
Suppose you were assembling 15 MW floating turbines at a rate of one per day, that would be a production rate of over 5 GW of turbines per year from just one dock.
Early Delivery Of Power
I suspect that to build a floating wind farm, one of the first things to be towed out would be the substation to which all the turbines will be connected.
- This could even be floating.
- I’ve seen floating sub station designs, that incorporate energy storage and hydrogen production.
Once the substation is fully-installed and tested, floating turbines could be towed out, anchored, connected to the substation and immediately start to produce electricity.
I have built a lot of cash-flow models in my time and I believe that one for say a 2 GW floating wind farm would be very friendly to proposers, investors and operators.
There’s A Lot Of Sea Out There!
And after nearly sixty years of offshore semi-submersible platforms in UK water, we now how to work in the conditions.
In ScotWind Offshore Wind Leasing Delivers Major Boost To Scotland’s Net Zero Aspirations, I said this, about the total capacity, that will be developed under the ScotWind leasing round.
- Adding up these fixed foundation wind farms gives a capacity of 9.7 GW in 3042 km² or about 3.2 MW per km².
- Adding up the floating wind farms gives a capacity of 14.6 GW in 4193 km² or about 3.5 MW per km².
Note.
- You appear to get ten percent more capacity in a given area of sea with floating wind farms.
- The energy density of floating wind farms is 3.5 MW per km².
I suspect investors will prefer the floating wind farms.
Lower Visibility
Floating wind farms will generally be further out to sea and less likely to be objected to, than installations nearer to land.
Maintenance And Updating
Floating wind farms can be towed into port for servicing and updating, which must ease the process.
Project Management
I believe that floating wind farms, are projects, that would benefit highly from good project management.
Sometimes, I wish I was still writing project management software and I am always open to offers to give my opinion and test anybody’s software in that area!
Finance
I can see that floating wind farms could offer better cash flows to investors and this will make them invest in floating wind farms at the expense of those with fixed foundations.
Conclusion
For all these reasons, but with my instinct telling me that floating wind farms could offer a better return to investors, I wouldn’t be surprised if floating wind farms came to dominate the market.
Elizabeth Line: More Than 100 Million Journeys On Elizabeth Line, Says YouGov
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
These three paragraphs introduce the article.
More than 100 million journeys have been made on London Underground’s new Elizabeth Line since it opened last May, according to a survey.
The YouGov poll suggested 45% of the capital’s residents had also used the line from Reading, Berkshire, to Abbey Wood and Shenfield in Essex.
Transport for London (TfL) said on 1 February it had completed about 600,000 daily journeys.
That is all well and good, but to me, this is the most significant paragraph.
TfL said the railway was “on track to break even” based on operating costs by the end of the 2023/24 financial year.
So it looks like that the planners got the modelling of the operation of the railway correct.
From my experience of project management, I believe that the Elizabeth Line project could have been considered as five main projects.
- The boring of the Central Tunnel
- The updating of the existing branches to Abbey Wood, Heathrow, Reading and Shenfield
- The building of the Class 345 trains
- The signalling
- The fitting out of the stations in the Central Tunnel
Delivery though was a bit patchy!
These are my thoughts on each sub-project.
The Boring Of The Central Tunnel
I was told, that early on, it was realised by the contractors that they didn’t have enough workers, who were certified to work underground.
So the Tunneling and Underground Construction Academy or TUCA in Ilford, was built to train more workers.
This helped the Central Tunnel to be completed on time.
Since then, two more tunnels; the Thames Tideway and the London Power Tunnel have been successfully completed on time and on budget, thus vindicating the building of TUCA.
The Updating Of The Existing Branches To Abbey Wood, Heathrow, Reading and Shenfield
There were a few hiccups, but generally the branches were updated and were operating into Paddington and Shenfield before the line opened.
The Building Of The Class 345 Trains
This wasn’t perfect and Bombardier’s financial state didn’t help, but the trains had good tests running out of Liverpool Street and Paddington.
The Signalling
A lot of commentators have said the signalling was too complicated. But eventually, it all seems to be working.
Was enough testing done away from the Elizabeth Line?
My feeling is that a new UK test track should have been built in the early 2010s, so that some testing could have been done professionally away from London.
The Fitting Out Of The Stations In The Central Tunnel
This was certainly a cause of late handover of stations like Bond Street, Farringdon, Whitechapel and others.
I heard tales, where other projects in London, were offering more money, so consequently workers were moving with the money, thus delaying the completion of stations.
I certainly heard a tale, where all the electricians on one station project moved en masse to complete the new Tottenham Hotspur stadium.
Some of the projects were office projects, paid for by sovereign wealth funds with bottomless projects, so they could make sure their project finished on time.
There were also the problems caused by Brexit, the pandemic and major projects running late in Germany and Europe.
It is my view that Elizabeth Line should have been given more priority, by delaying commercial projects, so that the pool of available labour wasn’t exhausted.
Some of the forest of projects around Elizabeth Line stations, should have been given planning permission, that meant they couldn’t start until Elizabeth Line was finished.
In the 1960s, there was certainly a similar labour problem in Aberdeen. I was told, that the oil majors, who nearly all used the project management system; Artemis, that I had written, talked to each other to make sure the situation didn’t get any worse.
I wonder, if someone was watching the labour shortage problems in City Hall?
Conclusion
I believe that if Elizabeth Line had been given the priority it should have been, that it would have been opened earlier and just as it is now, it would be showing a sensible cash flow.
Now it is a question of catching up financially.
Denmark’s Bank Robbers Count The Cost Of Cashless Society
The title of this post is the same as that of this article on The Times.
This is the second paragraph.
Figures from Finans Danmark, an industry association, show the number of attacks has collapsed in recent years as the shift towards online transactions has led many Danish banks to abandon cash services in branches. While there were 221 bank robberies in 2000, the number of hold-ups in Denmark fell to 121 in 2004, before declining to one in 2021 and none last year.
There were also no attacks on ATM machines.
Doing away with cash certainly cuts crime and it must be twelve years, since a Unite representative on Manchester buses told me he wanted cashless ticketing on Manchester’s buses and trams, as since it had been introduced in London, attacks on staff had declined dramatically.
I also wonder by how much the Income Tax take would rise?
Grand Union Sets Out Stirling Ambitions
The title of this post, is the same as that of an article in the December 2022 Edition of Modern Railways.
This is the first paragraph.
Grand Union Trains has updated its plans to operate services between Stirling and London Euston. It is targeting a 10-year track access agreement with services starting in May 2025.
I have a few thoughts.
The Route
The route between Stirling and Euston is as follows.
- Trains will call at Larbert, Greenfauds, Whifflet, Motherwell, Lockerbie, Carlisle, Preston, Nuneaton and Milton Keynes.
- Station upgrades are proposed for Larbert, Greenfauds, Whifflet and Lockerbie.
- The route is fully-electrified.
- There will be four trains per day in both directions, with a slightly reduced service on Saturday evenings and Sunday mornings.
This sentence from the article sums up the philosophy of Grand Union Trains.
The company says the aim is to link towns which have no or limited long-distance services and to improve connectivity for some station pairs on the West Coast Main Line.
Note.
Currently Larbert, Greenfauds and Whifflet don’t have services running past Stirling or Motherwell.
- Currently, Nuneaton and Milton Keynes have no Scottish services.
- Nuneaton is well connected to Peterborough and the East.
- Milton Keynes will be on the East-West Railway to Oxford and Cambridge.
It looks to be a service that has been well-planned and offers good possibilities for travel.
The Trains
The article says this about the trains.
New bi-mode rolling stock would be used and GUT says discussions with potential suppliers and manufacturers are ongoing.
Why Are Bi-Mode Trains Needed?
I can think of these reasons.
- Grand Union Trains want to run their South Wales services with the same trains.
- They might want to extend Scottish services from Stirling to perhaps Perth or Dundee.
- They want to offer a reliable service, when the electrification is damaged.
Bi-mode trains will certainly offer flexibility and reliability.
How Long Will The Trains Be?
Consider.
- An eleven-car Class 390/1 train is 265.3 metres long.
- A pair if five-car Class 802 trains is 260 metres long.
I suspect a train has a maximum length of 260 metres and these can be run between London Euston and Stirling.
Could it be that station upgrades are needed for Larbert, Greenfauds, Whifflet and Lockerbie, is that these stations have short platforms?
Could the trains and platforms start short and grow with the business?
The Trains Will Have Three Classes
These classes will be offered.
- First Class in compartments
- Standard in a 2+1 arrangement
- Standard Economy in a 2+2 arrangement
You pays your money and you make your choice.
Vanload Freight May Be Carried
Consider.
- There has been a lot of speculation and some serious train conversions, looking at the possibilities of high speed freight.
- Imagine a train of perhaps five passenger cars and one freight car for containerised freight.
- I suggested earlier, that the trains might grow with the business.
- As business develops, extra cars can be added as appropriate.
- If business booms, then it might be best to run separate passenger and freight services.
Modern trains and refurbished older ones, offer a multitude of solutions.
The Finance
The article says this about finance.
Grand Union Trains has linked with European independent investment firm Serena Industrial Partners to support its ambitions for its new Great Western service, and the project is supported by Spanish operator RENFE.
Serena Industrial Partners are Spanish, so does that mean, that the trains could be Spanish too?
100 MW Scottish Floating Wind Project To Deliver Lifetime Expenditure Of GBP 419 Million
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on offshoreWIND.biz.
This is the sub heading, that gives more details on lifetime expenditure and full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs created.
The 100 MW Pentland Floating Offshore Wind Farm in Scotland is estimated to deliver lifetime expenditure of GBP 419 million in the UK and to support the creation of up to 1,385 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs.
It does seem these figures have been compiled using the rules that will apply to all ScotWind leases and have used methods laid down by Crown Estate Scotland. So they should be representative!
Does it mean that a 1 GW floating wind farm would have a lifetime expenditure of £4.19 billion and create 13, 850 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs?
This article from Reuters is entitled UK Grid Reforms Critical To Hitting Offshore Wind Targets and contains this paragraph.
The government aims to increase offshore wind capacity from 11 GW in 2021 to 50 GW by 2030, requiring huge investment in onshore and offshore infrastructure in England, Wales and Scotland.
If I assume that of the extra 39 GW, half has fixed foundations and half will float, that means that there will be 19.5 GW of new floating wind.
Will that mean £81.7 billion of lifetime expenditure and 270,075 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs?
Conclusion
It does seem to me, that building floating offshore wind farms is a good way to bring in investment and create full time jobs.
How Is The XLinks Project Progressing?
The Wikipedia entry for the XLinks project has this introductory paragraph.
The Xlinks Morocco-UK Power Project is a proposal to create 10.5 GW of renewable generation, 20 GWh of battery storage and a 3.6 GW high-voltage direct current interconnector to carry solar and wind-generated electricity from Morocco to the United Kingdom. Morocco has far more consistent weather, and so should provide consistent solar power even in midwinter.
I ask the question in the title of this post, as there are two articles about the XLinks project in The Times today.
This article is optimistic and is entitled Xlinks Morocco Project Could Throw Britain A Renewable Energy Lifeline.
On the other hand this article is more pessimistic and is entitled Britain ‘Risks Losing Out’ On Green Energy From The Sahara.
This is the first paragraph of the second article.
Sir Dave Lewis has complained of “frustratingly slow” talks with the government over an £18 billion plan to generate power in the Sahara and cable it to Britain. The former Tesco chief executive has warned that the energy could be routed elsewhere unless ministers commit to the scheme.
It appears there have been little agreement on the price.
I have some thoughts.
Will XLinks Get Funding?
Xlinks is going to be privately funded, but I have doubts about whether the funding will be made available.
As an engineer, who was involved in many of the major offshore projects of the last forty years of the last century, I believe that the XLinks project is feasible, but it is only 3.6 GW.
These wind farm projects are also likely to be privately funded.
- SSE’s Berwick Bank project opposite Berwick is 4.1 GW
- Aker’s Northern Horizon off Shetland is 10 GW.
- The Scotwind Leasing Round is 25 GW.
- There is talk of 10 GW being possible off East Anglia.
- 50 GW may be being possible in the Celtic Sea.
- BP is planning 3 GW in Morecambe Bay.
Many of these enormous wind power projects are looking for completion on or before 2030, which is the date given for the Morocco cable.
I do wonder, if those financing these energy projects will find these and other projects better value than a link to Morocco.
Is the Project Bold Enough?
Consider.
- Spain has high levels of solar, wind and hydro power.
- France is developing wind to go with their nuclear.
- Both countries and Portugal, also have mountains for sensibly-sized pumped-storage hydroelectric power stations.
- France, Spain, Portugal and Ireland also have the Atlantic for wind, tidal and wave power.
Perhaps, the solution, is an Atlantic interconnector linking the UK, Ireland, France, Spain, Portugal and Gibraltar to West Africa.
Any excess power would be stored in the pumped-storage hydroelectric power stations and withdrawn as required.
In the UK, the National Grid are already using the huge 7800 GWh Ulla-Førre pumped-storage hydroelectric power station to store excess wind-generated energy using the North Sea Link from Blyth.
To my mind XLinks is just a UK-Morocco project.
BP’s Project In Mauretania
In bp And Mauritania To Explore Green Hydrogen At Scale, I discussed BP’s deal to create green hydrogen in Mauretania.
Is this a better plan, as hydrogen can be taken by tanker to where it is needed And for the best price.
Conclusion
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the XLinks project change direction.
The Anonymous Widower 