First Digitally Signalled Passenger Train Comes To Northern City Line
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Rail Advent.
These two paragraphs introduce the article.
The Northern City Line experienced its first taste of digital signalling, as a passenger train controlled by the in-cab technology ran between Finsbury Park and Moorgate on Monday the 27th of November.
The introduction of this type of signalling – known as the European Train Control System, or ETCS – is a first step towards wider adoption across the rail network and represents an important milestone in the government-backed £1.4bn East Coast Digital Programme (ECDP). The programme is designed to improve journeys between London and north of Peterborough, with reliability and environmental outcomes at the forefront of the project’s deliverables.
I hope that one of the benefits will be more trains between Moorgate and Hertford North, Stevenage and Welwyn Garden City.
Are LNER Going To Take On The Airlines?
Nine years ago, I wrote Edinburgh – Plane Or Train?, after a trip to Scotland, where I took easyJet up and came back in First Class by train.
- Both trips were about five hours door-to-door.
- The flight was about six quid more,
- But I got free food and drink on the train.
- Security on the plane was a pain.
- I had to take my passport for identification at Stansted.
I haven’t flown internally in Great Britain since, although, I have flown to Belfast.
For shorter flights the market is going towards rail, as these posts seem to suggest.
- 2.7M Tonnes Of Co2 Could Be Saved Per Year If UK Domestic Flights Went Electric
- Air Travellers To Be Hit By Carbon Charge On All Tickets
- Climate Change ‘May Curb Growth In UK Flying’
- France Bans Short-Haul Flights To Cut Carbon Emissions
- KLM Replaces Plane With High Speed Train
- Lumo Carbon Data Shows Its Trains Are 22 Times Greener Than Flying
- Next Time I’ll Go By Train
- Ryanair One Of Europe’s Top Polluters, EU Data Suggests
- Stop Taking Internal Flights And Go Green, Says Lib Dem Contender Davey
The climate seems to be turning against flying short-haul.
This is a paragraph, in this press release from LNER, which is entitled First Tri-Mode Long Distance Trains For The East Coast Main Line.
This new fleet of trains will keep LNER on track to reduce its emissions by 67 per cent by 2035 and be net zero by 2045. LNER has already reduced carbon emissions by 50 per cent compared with 2018/19. Per mile, LNER trains produce 15 times less carbon emissions than a domestic flight.
Are LNER building a number of climate-based sticks, with which to beat the airlines on the routes, where they compete?
These are my thoughts on the various routes, where LNER compete with airlines.
Newcastle
Newcastle is an interesting one.
- Newcastle station is in the city centre and is on the Tyne and Wear Metro.
- London King’s Cross is one of London’s major Underground hubs.
- There are lots of buses and local trains within walking distance of both stations.
- There are three trains every two hours and an additional eight trains per day (tpd) between the two London King’s Cross and Newcastle stations.
- Lumo also run five tpd on the route.
- There are generally no security delays at rail stations.
- London King’s Cross is laid out to maximise passenger flows. If it gets busy, everybody just walks out into King’s Cross Square.
- I’ve never had a problem at Newcastle station with overcrowding.
Perhaps, if you live near one of the airports, flying is more convenient.
LNER’s weapons against the airlines between London King’s Cross and Newcastle will be convenience and journey times.
Convenience is all about the location of the stations, their excellent local transport networks and good walking routes around the station.
Journey times will only get better, as the magic of digital in-cab signalling, allows the Azumas, the new CAF tri-mode long distance trains and the few remaining InterCity 225s to show what they were designed to do.
Dalton-on-Tees, where the first phase of the digitally signalling will end, is 39.8 miles South of Newcastle, so once the Newcastle train is passes Dalton-on-Tees on the East Coast Main Line, it will be a digital-signalled electrified railway all the way to Woolmer Green.
- Dalton-on-Tees is 39.8 miles South of Newcastle
- Woolmer Green is 244.8 miles South of Newcastle.
- Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green is 205 miles.
- Newcastle and Dalton-on-Tees takes 37 minutes.
- Woolmer Green and King’s Cross takes 18 minutes
- Trains take typically an average three hours and nine minutes between London and Newcastle.
- A typical train time by LNER between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green is two hours and 14 minutes.
- This is an average speed of 91.8 mph between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green.
- Between London King’s Cross and Newcastle is fully-electrified.
I can build a table of timings and savings at various average speeds.
- 120 mph – 103 minutes – two hours and 38 minutes – 31 minutes
- 125 mph – 98 minutes – two hours and 33 minutes – 36 minutes
- 130 mph – 95 minutes – two hours and 30 minutes – 39 minutes
- 135 mph – 91 minutes – two hours and 26 minutes – 43 minutes
- 140 mph – 88 minutes – two hours and 23 minutes – 46 minutes
Note.
- The first field is the average speed between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green.
- The second field is the time between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green.
- The third field is the time between London and Newcastle.
- The fourth field is the saving over current timings.
- The London and Newcastle time is calculated by adding the times for the three sections together.
I have regularly timed trains at a very constant 125 mph, so with digital signalling, I suspect an average of 130 mph is possible.
This would mean, times of a few minutes under two hours and thirty minutes could be possible between London and Newcastle.
Edinburgh
Edinburgh builds on the improvements South of Newcastle.
Edinburgh station Waverley is a well-connected station.
- There are lots of buses, local trains and the Edinburgh Tram within walking distance of Edinburgh Waverley station.
- There are three trains every two hours and an additional seven tpd between the London King’s Cross and Edinburgh Waverley stations.
- Lumo also run five tpd on the route.
- Trains take typically an average four hours and thirty minutes between London and Edinburgh Waverley.
- Any savings because of the digital in-cab signalling between London and Newcastle can be applied to London and Edinburgh Waverley services.
As my calculations showed that averaging 130 mph between Dalton-on-Tees and Woolmer Green could save 39 minutes on journey times, I am fairly sure than a sub-four hour journey time will be possible between London and Edinburgh Waverley.
It should also be noted that that the power supply has been improved between Newcastle and Edinburgh Waverley.
- The distance between Newcastle and Edinburgh Waverley is 124.2 miles
- Newcastle and Edinburgh Waverley takes around one hour and 30 minutes.
- This is an average speed of 82.8 mph between Newcastle and Edinburgh Waverley.
- Between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh Waverley is fully-electrified.
As the record time for between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh Waverley was set by an InterCity225 train in 1993 at three hours and twenty-nine minutes, I suspect that with more digital signalling and some track improvements, that there are more journey time improvements to be squeezed out.
I certainly believe that a time of three hours and fifty minutes between London and Edinburgh Waverley will be regularly achieved. This is a journey time saving of around forty minutes.
Dundee
Dundee has an airport and a station on the East Coast Main Line.
Trains between London King’s Cross and Dundee take around five hours and 45 minutes.
LNER run three trains per day to and from London King’s Cross and one tpd to and from Leeds.
CrossCountry also run services.
Loganair has two flights per day to Heathrow.
Aberdeen
Aberdeen builds on the improvements South of Edinburgh.
The four direct tpd between London and Aberdeen take around seven hours and ten minutes.
This should come down to around six hours and thirty minutes with the journey time savings between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh Waverley.
Will this tempt travellers from the airlines?
Battery-Electric Trains To Dundee And Aberdeen
One thing that will help, is that Edinburgh and Aberdeen is to be partially electrified.
InPiling Work To Get Underway To Electrify Line To Fife, I included this Network Rail map of the electrification.
This map has been downloaded from the Network Rail web site.
The electrification is split into four phases.
- Haymarket and Dalmeny – 25 km
- Kirkcaldy and Thornton North – 25 km.
- Lochgelly and Thornton North – 20 km.
- Thornton North and Ladybank – 34 km.
Note.
- The last three phases of electrification connect to Thornton North.
- The new rail link to Leven will also be electrified. and connected to Thornton North.
- The Forth Bridge is not to be electrified.
As Ladybank station is just 91.4 miles from Aberdeen, I suspect LNER will use Hitachi Intercity Battery Hybrid Trains to serve Aberdeen.
If these trains haven’t got the range, then I suspect LNER’s new CAF Tri-Mode Trains could handle the route.
Inverness
Inverness has a problem.
Zero-carbon trains will be unlikely to get to the city without full electrification of the Highland Main Line.
- Dunblane is the nearest electrified station to Inverness, but it is 146.2 miles away over a route with lots of steep climbs.
- I doubt that a battery-electric train could handle that route.
One solution would be for LNER to run the new CAF Tri-Mode Trains to Inverness using HVO or biodiesel.
Glasgow
Glasgow is the only other Scottish city with an airport and good rail connections to the South.
I am sure that Avanti West Coast will target airline passengers, if LNER prove it is a successful policy.
Other Factors
These are other factors, that will come into a traveller’s choice.
First Class
Some travellers like a bit more comfort and service.
Ability To Work
Some travellers like to work on a train.
You Don’t Get Tables On a Plane
I like to open a paper or magazine flat, which is difficult on a plane.
Views Tend To Be Better On a Train
Providing you get a window!
Parking Tends To Be Better At An Airport
But it may be more expensive!
Security Is Less Hassle On A Train
At the moment!
You Don’t Need To Prove Your Identity On A Train
Not in the UK! Yet!
Conclusion
It looks like LNER can offer the airlines to four of our major Northern cities serious zero-carbon competition.
First Tri-Mode Long Distance Trains For The East Coast Main Line
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from LNER.
This is the sub-heading.
London North Eastern Railway (LNER) is pleased to confirm that CAF has been named as the successful bidder to deliver a fleet of 10 new tri-mode trains for LNER. Porterbrook has been chosen as the financier of the new fleet. The trains will be able to operate in electric, battery or diesel mode.
These are the first two paragraphs.
Benefits of tri-mode trains range from a reduction in emissions, particulates, noise and vibration pollution, lower maintenance and operating costs and upgradeable technology, with an expected increase in range and performance as technology develops further. Battery power reduces the need to use diesel traction in areas where overhead powerlines are not available.
Complementing the modern Azuma fleet of 65 trains, the new ten-coach trains will help LNER achieve its vision of becoming the most loved, progressive and trusted train operator in the UK, delivering an exceptional service for the customers and communities served along its 956-mile network.
I have a few thoughts.
Will The Trains Have Rolls-Royce mtu Diesel Engines?
Consider.
- CAF’s Class 195, 196 and 197 Civity trains for the UK all have Rolls-Royce mtu diesel engines.
- Porterbrook are headquartered in Derby.
- Rolls-Royce are headquartered in Derby.
- In Rolls-Royce And Porterbrook Agreement Will Drive Rail Decarbonisation, I talked about how the two companies were planning to decarbonise trains using techniques like mtu Hybrid PowerPacks and hydrogen fuel cells.
I would think it very likely that the new trains will have Rolls-Royce mtu engines.
Will The Trains Have Rolls-Royce mtu Hybrid PowerPacks?
It was in 2018, that I first wrote about mtu Hybrid PowerPacks in Rolls-Royce And Porterbrook Launch First Hybrid Rail Project In The UK With MTU Hybrid PowerPacks.
- Examples of these power packs are now running in Germany, Ireland and the UK.
- The mtu Hybrid PowerPack how has its own web site.
- There is also this YouTube video.
- If CAF use off-the-shelf mtu Hybrid PowerPacks in their Civity trains, there is one big massive plus – They don’t have to develop the complicated control software to get a combination of diesel engines and batteries to perform as immaculately as Busby Berkeley’s dancers or a Brigade of Guards.
- The mtu Hybrid PowerPacks also have a big plus for operators – The batteries don’t need separate charging infrastructure.
- In Rolls-Royce Releases mtu Rail Engines For Sustainable Fuels, I talk about how mtu engines can run on sustainable fuels, such as biodiesel or HVO.
I think it is extremely likely that CAF’s new trains for LNER will be powered by mtu Hybrid PowerPacks.
Class 800 And Class 397 Trains Compared
The Class 800 train is LNER’s workhorse to Scotland from London.
The Class 397 train used by TransPennine Express, is a 125 mph Civity train.
Differences include.
- The Class 800 train can run at 140 mph, where the signalling allows, but is the Class 397 train only capable of 125 mph?
- The Class 397 train accelerate at 0.92 m/s², whereas the Class 800 train can only manage 0.7 m/s².
- The Hitachi train has 14 % more seats, 36 First and 290 Standard as opposed to 22 First and 264 Standard in five-car trains.
I will add to this list.
Will The New Trains Be Capable Of 140 mph Running?
As the East Coast Main Line is being fully digitally signalled to allow 140 mph running of the numerous Hitachi expresses on the route, I wouldn’t be surprised to see, that the new CAF trains will be capable of 140 mph.
In this article on Modern Railways, which is entitled LNER Orders CAF Tri-mode Sets, this is said.
The new fleet will be equipped with CAF Signalling’s European Rail Traffic Management System digital signalling. This will align with the East Coast Digital Programme, which aims to introduce European Train Control System (ETCS) on the southern stretch of the East Coast main line from King’s Cross to Stoke Tunnel by 2029.
Later in the article this is said.
LNER has retained 12 ‘91s’ hauling eight rakes of Mk 4s, and the rollout of ETCS is another reason the operator has sought to order the replacement fleet. LNER’s passenger numbers have rebounded more quickly than other operators post-Covid, which has helped make the case for confirming the order.
This does seem sensible.
What Will Be The Range Of The CAF Trains Without Electrification?
The longest LNER route without electrification is the Northern section of the Inverness service between Inverness and Dunblane, which is 146.1 miles. There are also eight stops and some hills.
In Edinburgh to Inverness in the Cab of an HST, there’s a video of the route.
I’m sure that even, if they don’t normally run the new trains to Inverness, being able to do so, could be useful at some point.
It should be noted that the Guinness World Record for battery-electric trains is 139 miles, which is held by a Stadler Akku.
I am left with the conclusion that London and Inverness needs a tri-mode train or lots of electrification. Did this rule out Hitachi?
The Number Of Trains Ordered
The Modern Railways article says this about the number of trains.
The contract includes an eight-year maintenance services agreement with an option to extend; CAF says the order value, including maintenance, exceeds €500 million. When the tender was published the intention was to include an option for five additional sets; LNER confirmed to Modern Railways there is an option to purchase additional sets on top of the base order of 10.
Can we assume this means that other trains will be ordered, if the trains are a success?
Can These New CAF Trains Be Made Net Zero?
This is a paragraph, in the LNER press release.
This new fleet of trains will keep LNER on track to reduce its emissions by 67 per cent by 2035 and be net zero by 2045. LNER has already reduced carbon emissions by 50 per cent compared with 2018/19. Per mile, LNER trains produce 15 times less carbon emissions than a domestic flight.
As the new CAF trains will probably have a service life of at least forty years, there must be some way, that these new trains can be made net zero.
Consider.
- I am absolutely certain, that the new CAF trains will have Rolls-Royce mtu diesel engines.
- LNER’s existing Class 800 and 801 trains have Rolls-Royce mtu diesel engines.
Rolls-Royce mtu according to some of Rolls-Royce’s press releases appear to be developing net zero solutions based on hydrogen or net zero fuels.
This press release from Rolls-Royce is entitled Rolls-Royce Successfully Tests mtu Engines With Pure Hydrogen, suggests that Rolls-Royce mtu are working on a solution.
Routes They Will Serve
The Modern Railways article says this about the routes to be served.
Modern Railways understands the new fleet will be maintained at Neville Hill depot in Leeds and, like the ‘225’ sets, will be used predominantly on services between London and Yorkshire, although unlike the ‘225s’ the tri-modes, with their self-power capability, will be able to serve destinations away from the electrified network such as Harrogate and Hull.
Note.
- This surprised me, as I’d always expected the Yorkshire routes will be served by Hitachi battery-electric trains.
- But it does look that both Harrogate and Hull stations, have long enough platforms to hold a ten-car train.
- With their tri-mode technology, it also looks like the CAF trains won’t be needed to be charged before returning to London.
The last point would enable them to try out new routes.
These are distances from the electrification of the East Coast Main Line of the destinations that LNER served, where there is not full electrification.
- Aberdeen via Ladybank – 91.4 miles
- Carlisle via Skipton – 86.8 miles
- Cleethorpes via Newark and Lincoln – 63.9 miles
- Harrogate via Leeds – 18.3 miles
- Huddersfield via Leeds – 17.2 miles
- Hull via Temple Hirst junction – 36.1 miles
- Inverness via Dunblane – 146.1 miles
- Lincoln via Newark – 16.7 miles
- Middlesbrough via Northallerton – 22.2 miles
- Scarborough via York – 42.1 miles
- Sunderland via Northallerton – 47.4 miles
Note.
- The first place after the ‘via’ is where the electrification ends.
- Carlisle could be a possibility during High Speed Two upgrading of the West Coast Main Line or for an enthusiasts’ special or tourist train.
- Cleethorpes is a possible new service for LNER. I wrote about this in LNER To Serve Cleethorpes.
- Scarborough must be a possible new service for LNER.
- All stations can take ten-car trains, with the possible exception of Middlesbrough, which is currently being upgraded.
- Huddersfield and Leeds is being electrified under the TransPennine Upgrade.
This would appear to show that LNER need enough bi-mode or tri-mode trains to run services to Aberdeen, Cleethorpes, Harrogate, Hull, Inverness, Lincoln, Middlesbrough and Sunderland.
But.
- It would appear that the initial batch of trains, will not be serving the North of Scotland.
- Aberdeen and Inverness could be served, when there is enough electrification at the Southern end.
I am also fairly sure, that no significant infrastructure is required.
Do Hitachi Have A Problem?
I am starting to wonder, if Hitachi are having trouble with the designing and building of their battery packs.
- It’s not like Hitachi to allow someone to run off with a €500 million contract from under their nose.
- Are they short of capacity to build the trains at Newton Aycliffe?
But then they’re probably up to their elbows in work on the High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
Are There Any Other Routes, Where The New CAF Trains Could Be Employed?
The trains would certainly be suitable for these routes.
- Chiltern – InterCity services.
- CrossCountry Trains – Fleet replacement
- Grand Central Trains – Fleet replacement
- Grand Union Trains – For Carmarthen and Stirling open access services.
- Great Western Railway – Replacing Castles in the South West.
- ScotRail – Replacing Inter7City trains.
- South Western Railway – Basingstoke and Exeter St. Davids and other routes.
Note.
- CAF could sell a lot of trains.
- I estimate that fleet replacement for Grand Central Trans would cost around €350 million
- The specification would vary according to the route.
Could CAF have got the LNER order, because they have the capacity in the Newport factory?
Conclusion
It looks like CAF have done a good job in designing the trains.
I’m also fairly sure that CAF are using Rolls-Royce mtu PowerPacks.
A First Trip To Headbolt Lane Station – 13th October 2023
Headbolt Lane station opened a week ago and I went to take a look today, where I took these pictures.
Note.
- It is a three-platform station, with two platforms pointing towards Liverpool and one towards Wigan Wallgate station.
- Changing trains is about a fifty metre walk.
- The toilets are trans-ready. But the toilets at Peterborough station, that I wrote about in A Pair Of Toilets At Peterborough Station were too.
I have a few thoughts.
Could There Be Through Running Between Headbolt Lane and Wigan Wallgate Stations?
This picture shows the walkway between Platform 2 on the South side of the tracks and Platforms 1 and 3 on the North side.
Note.
- Platform 1 is the platform on the left and Platform 2 is on the right.
- Platform 3 is in line with Platform 1 behind the fence at the far end of Platforms 1 and 2.
- The tracks don’t go straight through.
- There are two concrete blocks forming the walkway between platforms.
I suspect the answer is no at the moment.
But I wouldn’t be surprised to find, that the blocks have been designed to be lifted out and there is space to put a footbridge over the tracks, so that if in the future, through running were to be required, it is possible.
How Would A Station To Skelmersdale Be Connected?
In New Express Bus Improves Links Between Skelmersdale And Liverpool, I talked about a new express bus service between Kirkby and Skelmersdale.
This page on Bus Times gives details of the service.
The 319 Trainlink service will surely give useful information on possible passenger numbers.
In Would A Lower Cost Rail Link To Skelmersdale Be Possible?, I looked at options for the rail line.
Wigan’s Comprehensive Local Connections
Wigan North Western and Wigan Wallgate station have services to all these stations.
- Accrington
- Appley Bridge
- Ashton-under-Lyne
- Atherton
- Bescar Lane
- Blackburn
- Blackpool North
- Bolton
- Broad Green
- Bryn
- Burnley Manchester Road
- Burscough Bridge
- Clifton
- Daisy Hill
- Deansgate
- Eccleston Park
- Edge Hill
- Euxton Balshaw Lane
- Farnworth
- Garswood
- Gathurst
- Hag Fold
- Headbolt Lane
- Hindley
- Hoscar
- Huyton
- Ince
- Kearsley
- Leyland
- Littleborough
- Manchester Oxford Road
- Manchester Victoria
- Meols Cop
- Moorside
- Moses Gate
- New Lane
- Orrell
- Parbold
- Pemberton
- Poulton-le-Fylde
- Prescot
- Rainford
- Toby
- Rochdale
- Rose Grove
- Salford Central
- Salford Crescent
- Smithy Bridge
- Southport
- Stalybridge
- St Helens Central
- Swinton
- Todmorden
- Thatto Heath
- Upholland
- Walkden
- Wavertree Technology Park
- Westhoughton
Fifty-eight stations is certainly comprehensively connected.
The Connection To High Speed Two At Wigan North Western
This map from OpenRailwayMap shows the two Wigan stations; North Western and Wallgate.
Note.
- The orange tracks are the West Coast Main Line, which in the future, will carry High Speed Two services to and from Preston, Lancaster, Carlisle and Scotland.
- The yellow tracks are the local lines between Manchester in the East and Kirkby and Southport in the West.
- The local lines split after they pass under the West Coast Main Line, with the North-Western branch going to Southport and the Western branch going to Headbolt Lane, Kirkby and Liverpool.
- Wigan North Western is on the West Coast Main Line.
- Wigan Wallgate is on the local lines.
The stations are close enough to be converted into a superb combined station, where local passengers can join high speed services.
This picture shows the platforms of Wigan North Western station.
Wigan North Western station can’t be far off being able to accept pairs of High Speed Two Classic Compatible trains, that will be 400 metres long.
This graphic shows High Speed Two services after Phase 2b is completed.
Only two High Speed Two services stop at Wigan North Western.
- The London and Lancaster service, which splits and joins with a London and Liverpool service at Crewe.
- The Birmingham and Scotland service.
As Wigan North Western has comprehensive local connections to the Northern areas of Liverpool and Manchester, it surely needs more services.
North West To Benefit From £19.8 billion Transport Investment
This is the title of this government document, which has this sub-heading.
Multibillion-pound plan to link major cities in the North via bus, rail and new and improved roads.
It says this about Greater Manchester and Liverpool City Region.
- Greater Manchester will also receive around £1.5 billion from the CRSTS2 budget and around £900 million additional funding – funded from HS2 – which is an unprecedented investment in local transport networks. That is more than double their allocation under the previous programme
- Liverpool City Region will also receive c.£1 billion from the CRSTS2 budget, plus a further £600 million on top – funded from HS2. That is more than double their allocation under the last round
Some of that amount of money could go a long way to improve Liverpool and Manchester connections through Wigan and create a link to High Speed Two.
TransPennine Services Between Liverpool/Manchester And Scotland
Currently, the following services run between Liverpool and Manchester, and Scotland.
- Manchester Airport and Glasgow Central – 1 tp2h – via Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Oxford Road, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme Lake District, Penrith North Lakes, Carlisle, Lockerbie and Motherwell
- Manchester Airport and Edinburgh Waverley – 1 tp2h – via Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Oxford Road, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme Lake District and Haymarket Penrith North Lakes, Carlisle and Lockerbie and Haymarket
- Liverpool Lime Street and Glasgow Central – 2 tpd – via St Helens Central, Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme Lake District, Carlisle, Lockerbie and Motherwell
Note.
- tp2h is trains per two hours.
- tpd is trains per day.
- Only the Liverpool services go through Wigan.
- North of Preston all trains will use the same route.
- All three services are run by Class 397 trains.
- When High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains start running to Glasgow and Edinburgh, they will use the same route North of Preston.
Point 5 surely means that High Speed Two’s trains will be limited to the same speed as the current Class 397 trains, which is 125 mph. Although, this might be increased to up to 140 mph, by the use of in-cab digital signalling.
Consider.
- Edinburgh to Preston is 191.4 miles.
- The current TransPennine express service from Edinburgh to Preston is scheduled for two hours and 34 minutes, with five stops, at an average speed of 74.6 mph.
- The Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two says that the London-Edinburgh service from Edinburgh to Preston is scheduled for two hours and 30 minutes, with two stops and a split/join at Carlisle, at an average speed of 76.6 mph.
- The Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two says that the Birmingham-Edinburgh service from Edinburgh to Preston is scheduled for two hours and 24 minutes, with four stops, at an average speed of 79.8 mph.
Note.
- The first timing is based on a Class 397 train and the others will be High Speed Two Classic Compatible trains.
- The times would appear to be vaguely in line with each other.
- The removal of the split/join could explain why the Birmingham service is six minutes faster.
The following would appear to be true.
- Both the Class 397 and High Speed Two Classic Compatible trains can run at similar speeds North of Preston.
- The High Speed Two Classic Compatible train may have faster acceleration and deceleration, which could save a few minutes.
- Nothing substantial has been done to improve the tracks between Edinburgh and Preston.
- As the current times are run without digital signalling and the Class 397 train, is within ten minutes of that, I would be very surprised if digital signalling will be installed before High Speed Two services reach Edinburgh.
I also suspect that if digital signalling and a few other improvements were made to the North of Preston, a few extra minutes could be saved.
The Future Of TransPennine Services Between Liverpool/Manchester And Scotland
Will the TransPennine services between Liverpool/Manchester and Scotland continue after High Speed Two services start running to North of the border?
Consider.
- I have never seen any plans from High Speed Two for services between Liverpool/Manchester and Scotland.
- If the TransPennine services, aren’t kept, travelling between Liverpool/Manchester and Scotland will need a change at Wigan North Western or Preston.
- The TransPennine services will probably need only a single train per hour (tph) on the West Coast Main Line to the North of Preston.
I can see them continuing. But possibly in a different form.
In 1967, I went from Glasgow to Manchester on a train.
- The Glasgow and Edinburgh trains joined at Carstairs.
- They then split again at Preston.
- One half went to Manchester and the other half went to Liverpool.
I remember that the train was late, because of late arrival of the Edinburgh train at Carstairs.
I needed to take a taxi. But I wrote my first complaint letter and got a cheque from British Rail.
Could similar joining and splitting be used again, as it uses only one train path between Preston and Scotland?
Would it also be better, if the service were to be under the Management of High Speed Two?
There are several possibilities, but I feel the TransPennine services will continue.
High Speed Two To Blackpool
There has been a lot of speculation about the Northern end of High Speed Two, so I might as well add sort out a few facts and add a bit of speculation of my own.
The Current Blackpool Service
I shall look at the 05:35 train on the 5th October 2023.
- It was a pair of Voyagers or Class 221 trains.
- Euston and Blackpool North are 226.5 miles apart.
- The train called at Preston, Wigan North Western, Warrington Bank Quay, Crewe and Stafford
- The train should have arrived at Preston at 05:56 and left at 0600.
- The train should have arrived at Wigan North Western at 06:11 and left at 06:12.
- The train should have arrived at Warrington Bank Quay at 06:22 and left at 06:24.
- The train should have arrived at Crewe at 06:46 and left at 06:55.
- The train should have arrived at Stafford at 07:13 and left at 07:14.
- The train should have arrived at London Euston at 08:35
- The journey took three hours.
- The average speed was 75.5 mph.
- The Crewe and Blackpool North section is 68.5 miles and the train is scheduled to take one hour and eleven minutes.
- The average speed between Crewe and Blackpool North is 57.9 mph.
- There are three trains per day (tpd).
Note.
- Other services between London Euston and Blackpool North are run by eleven-car Class 390 trains or Pendolinos.
- Blackpool North is fully electrified to London.
This means that London Euston and Blackpool North could be run using High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
I have a few questions.
What Time Would Be Possible At The Present Time?
Consider.
- According to the Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two, one hour and seventeen minutes is the fastest time between London Euston and Stafford.
- The 05:35 is timed to take one hour and thirteen minutes with the four stops, between Blackpool North and Stafford.
This would give a London Euston and Blackpool North time of two hours and thirty minutes.
What Time Would Be Possible When High Speed Two Lite Opens To Handsacre Junction?
Consider.
- According to the Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two, fifty-five minutes will be the fastest time between London Euston and Stafford, after High Speed Two opens to Handsacre junction.
- The 05:35 is timed to take one hour and thirteen minutes with the four stops, between Blackpool North and Stafford.
This would give a London Euston and Blackpool North time of two hours and eight minutes.
What Frequency Would Be Needed?
LNER seem to run their secondary services to places like Harrogate and Lincoln using a frequency of one train per two hours (tp2h).
That could be an ideal frequency.
Would There Be A Path For The Train To And From London Euston?
This graphic shows High Speed Two services after Phase 2b is completed.
Note.
- Services shown in blue are run by High Speed Two Full Size trains.
- Services shown in yellow are run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
- Each of these trains will have a frequency of one tph.
- The nine paths to the right of the vertical black line will not be needed for some time. If ever!
- It looks like a maximum of only eleven paths will be needed to the South of Birmingham.
- It looks like a maximum of only fourteen paths will be needed to the North of Birmingham.
In Will High Speed Two Lite Make Stafford An Important Station?, I totted up all the services through Stafford after High Speed Two Lite opened to Handsacre junction and got these figures.
- Through Stafford station, there are totals of 11 tpd and 14 tph.
- Along the Trent Valley Line, there are totals of 11 tpd and 12 tph.
- North of Stafford on the West Coast Main Line, there are totals of 9 tpd and 12 tph.
- South of Stafford on the West Coast Main Line, there are totals of 2 tpd and 2 tph.
- Between Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent, there are totals of 2 tph.
I accounted for services moving from the West Coast Main Line to High Speed Two.
Consider.
- A large proportion of the route between Preston and Handsacre junction, where the route would join High Speed Two Light has two dedicated high speed tracks and two tracks for freight and local services.
- Digital signalling on High Speed Two has been designed to handle eighteen trains per hour (tph) at 225 mph.
- Surely, the two dedicated high speed tracks, if fitted with High Speed Two digital signalling could handle say 16 tph at 140 mph.
- Network Rail are good at juggling trains to squeeze in more services.
- Extra paths could be created by splitting and joining trains at Crewe or Preston.
My Control Engineering training and practice tells me that it should be possible to add perhaps two tph between Preston and Euston.
Conclusion
I believe that High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains could be close to two hours between Blackpool and London Euston, when High Speed Two Lite opens from Handsacre junction.
Will High Speed Two Lite Make Stafford An Important Station?
Stafford station is where the Trent Valley Line joins the West Coast Main Line and with the current proposals for High Speed Two, which I refer to as High Speed Two Light, it will also have to handle those High Speed Two services to and from Crewe.
Current Services Through Stafford Station
These are current services through Stafford station.
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Blackpool North via Birmingham – 2 tpd – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Birmingham – 5 tpd – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Edinburgh via Birmingham – 7 tpd – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Blackpool North via Trent Valley – 1 tpd – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Non-Stop
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Holyhead via Trent Valley – 8 tpd – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- CrossCountry – Birmingham New Street and Manchester via Wolverhampton and Stoke-on-Trent – 2 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.
- West Midlands – London Euston and Crewe via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- West Midlands – Birmingham New Street and Crewe via Wolverhampton and Stoke-on-Trent – 1 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent and Crewe
- West Midlands – Birmingham New Street and Liverpool Lime Street via Wolverhampton – 1 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
Note.
- tpd is trains per day.
- tph is trains per hour.
- Through Stafford station, there are totals of 23 tpd and 8 tph.
- Along the Trent Valley Line, there are totals of 9 tpd and 4 tph.
- North of Stafford on the West Coast Main Line, there are totals of 23 tpd and 4 tph.
- South of Stafford on the West Coast Main Line, there are totals of 14 tpd and 4 tph.
- Between Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent, there are totals of 3 tph.
Stafford is a very busy station.
Services have these frequencies from Stafford.
- Crewe – 21 tpd and 3 tph.
- Stoke-on-Trent – 3 tph.
- London Euston – 23 tpd and 4 tph.
- Wolverhampton – 13 tpd and 4 tph.
Could Stoke-on-Trent and Stafford do with a few extra services?
High Speed Two Services Through Stafford Station
This graphic shows High Speed Two services after Phase 2b is completed.
Note.
- Services shown in blue are run by High Speed Two Full Size trains.
- Services shown in yellow are run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
- Each of these trains will have a frequency of one tph.
These could be High Speed Two services through Stafford station, when High Speed Two Lite opens.
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street/Lancaster via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Macclesfield via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 3 tph
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Glasgow/Edinburgh via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 2 tph
- High Speed Two – Birmingham and Glasgow/Edinburgh via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph
- High Speed Two – Birmingham and Manchester Piccadilly via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 2 tph
Note.
- Through Stafford station, there are totals of 11 tph.
- Along the Trent Valley Line, there are totals of 11 tph.
- North of Stafford on the West Coast Main Line, there are totals of 11 tph.
- Between Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent, there are totals of 1 tph.
There are a lot of trains to squeeze through. But remember that High Speed Two signalling is designed to handle 18 tph.
Combined Services Through Stafford Station
These could be the combined current High Speed Two services through Stafford station, when High Speed Two Lite opens.
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Blackpool North via Birmingham – 2 tpd – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Birmingham – 5 tpd – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Edinburgh via Birmingham – 7 tpd – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Blackpool North via Trent Valley – 1 tpd – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Non-Stop
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Holyhead via Trent Valley – 8 tpd – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- CrossCountry – Birmingham New Street and Manchester via Wolverhampton and Stoke-on-Trent – 2 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.
- West Midlands – London Euston and Crewe via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- West Midlands – Birmingham New Street and Crewe via Wolverhampton and Stoke-on-Trent – 1 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent and Crewe
- West Midlands – Birmingham New Street and Liverpool Lime Street via Wolverhampton – 1 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street/Lancaster via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Macclesfield via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 3 tph
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Glasgow/Edinburgh via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 2 tph
- High Speed Two – Birmingham and Glasgow/Edinburgh via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph
- High Speed Two – Birmingham and Manchester Piccadilly via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 2 tph
Note.
- Through Stafford station, there are totals of 23 tpd and 19 tph.
- Along the Trent Valley Line, there are totals of 9 tpd and 15 tph.
- North of Stafford on the West Coast Main Line, there are totals of 23 tpd and 15 tph.
- Between Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent, there are totals of 4 tph.
But there are duplicate services.
High Speed Two services to Liverpool, Manchester and Scotland, will replace Avanti West Coast services.
High Speed Two services between Birmingham and Manchester, will replace CrossCountry services.
Removing these current services gives.
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Blackpool North via Birmingham – 2 tpd – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Blackpool North via Trent Valley – 1 tpd – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Holyhead via Trent Valley – 8 tpd – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- West Midlands – London Euston and Crewe via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- West Midlands – Birmingham New Street and Crewe via Wolverhampton and Stoke-on-Trent – 1 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent and Crewe
- West Midlands – Birmingham New Street and Liverpool Lime Street via Wolverhampton – 1 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street/Lancaster via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Macclesfield via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 3 tph
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Glasgow/Edinburgh via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 2 tph
- High Speed Two – Birmingham and Glasgow/Edinburgh via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph
- High Speed Two – Birmingham and Manchester Piccadilly via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 2 tph
Note.
- Through Stafford station, there are totals of 11 tpd and 14 tph.
- Along the Trent Valley Line, there are totals of 11 tpd and 12 tph.
- North of Stafford on the West Coast Main Line, there are totals of 9 tpd and 12 tph.
- South of Stafford on the West Coast Main Line, there are totals of 2 tpd and 2 tph.
- Between Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent, there are totals of 2 tph.
With these frequencies, I suspect digital signalling will be needed.
Services have these frequencies from Stafford.
- Crewe – 11 tpd and 5 tph.
- Stoke-on-Trent – 2 tph.
- London Euston – 11 tpd and 4 tph.
- Wolverhampton – 3 tpd and 2 tph.
Note.
- Stoke-on-Trent needs more trains.
- There is virtually no trains on the West Coast Main Line to the South of Stafford.
- The frequencies indicate digital signalling will be needed.
On this brief look, I think that High Speed Two Lite will open up a lot of possibilities.
High Speed Two To Lancaster
There has been a lot of speculation about the Northern end of High Speed Two, so I might as well add sort out a few facts and add a bit of speculation of my own.
The Current Lancaster Service
I shall look at the 07:30 train on the 29th September 2023.
- It was a nine-car Class 390 train or Pendolino, which left on time.
- Euston and Lancaster are 230 miles apart.
- The train passed Crewe at 09:59
- The train arrived at Warrington Bank Quay at 09:14 and left at 09:15.
- The train arrived at Wigan North Western at 09:25 and left at 09:26.
- The train arrived at Preston at 09:39 and left at 09:41.
- The train arrived at Lancaster at 09:55 and left at 09:57.
- The journey took two hours and 25 minutes
- The average speed was 95.2 mph.
- There is at least one train per hour (tph).
Lancaster Will Get Its Own High Speed Two Service
This graphic shows High Speed Two services after Phase 2b is completed.
Note.
- Lancaster and Liverpool share a pair of High Speed Two Classic Compatible trains, that will split and join at Crewe.
- The Lancaster service will stop at Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston, to the North of Crewe.
The Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two gives these times for trains from London after Phase 2a opens to Crewe.
- Crewe – 56 minutes
- Warrington Bank Quay – One hour and 20 minutes
- Wigan North Western – One hour and 34 minutes
- Preston – One hour and 18 minutes
- Lancaster – Two hours and 3 minutes
- Oxenholme – One hour and 56 minutes
- Carlisle – Two hours and 23 minutes
Note.
- The Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Lancaster times will apply to the direct Lancaster service.
- The Preston and Carlisle times apply to the non-stop Scottish service.
- Oxenholme will be reached with a change from London.
- Currently, Pendolinos travel between Crewe and Lancaster in an hour or a few minutes less.
I feel the Lancaster time is suspect and a better time would be around one hour and 52-56 minutes.
140 Mph Running Between Crewe And Preston
Consider.
- London Euston and Crewe is 56 minutes
- One hour and 18 minutes to Preston infers a time of 22 minutes between Crewe and Preston.
- Crewe and Preston is 51 miles.
This implies an average speed of 139 mph.
As the West Coast Main Line was built for 140 mph, when digital signalling was installed, this would appear to be feasible, once the signalling is upgraded.
It may also mean, that faster times are possible in services to Warrington Bank Quay and Wigan North Western.
Crewe And Warrington Bank Quay
Consider.
- The distance is 24.1 miles
- HS2 will take 24 minutes with one acceleration and one deceleration, which probably take a maximum of 4 minutes in total.
- I explain the four minutes in High Speed Two To Crewe.
This gives an average speed of 72.3 mph.
Warrington Bank Quay And Wigan North Western
Consider.
- The distance is 11.7 miles
- HS2 will take 14 minutes with one acceleration and one deceleration, which probably take a maximum of 4 minutes in total.
This gives an average speed of 70.2 mph.
Wigan North Western And Lancaster
Consider.
- The distance is 36.1 miles
- HS2 will take 29 minutes with two accelerations and two decelerations, which probably take a maximum of 8 minutes in total.
- I will also allow a minute for the dwell time at Preston.
This gives an average speed of 108.3 mph.
Crewe And Lancaster
Consider.
- The distance is 72 miles
- HS2 will take 67 minutes with four accelerations and four decelerations, which probably take a maximum of 16 minutes in total.
- I will also allow a minute for the dwell times at Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan and Preston.
This gives an average speed of 90.6 mph.
I now feel happier about two hours and three minutes between London and Lancaster.
Conclusion
The West Coast Main Line needs upgrading to full in-cab digital signalling as soon as possible.
Once working it would give journey time savings for everybody travelling on the line.
See Also
Could High Speed Two Finish At Lichfield?
Is There An ERTMS-based Solution To The Digswell Viaduct?
Consider.
- Airliners have been flown automatically and safely from airport to airport for perhaps four decades.
- The Victoria Line has been running automatically and safely at over twenty tph for five decades.
- I worked with engineers developing a high-frequency sequence control system for a complicated chemical plant in 1970.
We also can’t deny that computers are getting better and more capable.
For these reasons, I believe there could be an ERTMS-based solution to the problem of the Digswell Viaduct, which could be something like this.
- All trains running on the two track section over the Digswell Viaduct and through Welwyn North station would be under computer control between Welwyn Garden City and Knebworth stations.
- Fast trains would be slowed as appropriate to create spaces to allow the slow trains to pass through the section.
- The driver would be monitoring the computer control, just as they do on the Victoria Line.
Much more complicated automated systems have been created in various applications.
The nearest rail application in the UK, is probably the application of digital signalling to London Underground’s Circle, District, Hammersmith & City and Metropolitan Lines.
This is known at the Four Lines Modernisation and it will be completed by 2023 and increase capacity by up to twenty-seven percent.
I don’t think it unreasonable to see the following numbers of services running over the Digswell Viaduct by 2030 in both directions in every hour.
- Sixteen fast trains
- Four slow trains
That is one train every three minutes.
Currently, it appears to be about ten fast and two slow.
As someone, who doesn’t like to be on a platform, when a fast train goes through, I believe that some form of advanced safety measures should be installed at Welwyn North station.
Conclusion
It will surely be more affordable to use clever signalling and train sequencing, than rebuilding the viaduct with four tracks.
Thoughts On Rail Capacity Between London And The North
This is just a rough calculation to see how many trains can be run between London and the North.
I shall do the calculation by station.
Euston
Trains are.
- Avanti – Birmingham – 1 tph (trains per hour)
- Avanti – Blackpool North – 1 tpd (trains per day)
- Avanti – Blackpool North via Birmingham – 2 tpd
- Avanti – Edinburgh via Birmingham – 1 tp2h – (trains per two hours)
- Avanti – Glasgow – 1 tph
- Avanti – Glasgow via Birmingham – 5 tpd
- Avanti – Holyhead – 8 tpd
- Avanti – Liverpool – 1 tph
- Avanti – Manchester – 3 tph
- WMT – Birmingham – 2 tph
- WMT – Crewe – 1 tph
This gives totals of 9 tph, 1 tp2h and 16 tpd
King’s Cross
Trains are.
- Grand Central – Bradford – 4 tpd
- Grand Central – Sunderland – 6 tpd
- Hull Trains – Beverley – 2 tpd
- Hull Trains – Hull – 5 tpd
- LNER – Bradford- 2 tpd
- LNER – Edinburgh – 3 tp2h
- LNER – Harrogate – 1 tp2h
- LNER – Hull – 1 tpd
- LNER – Leeds – 3 tp2h
- LNER – Lincoln – 1 tp2h
- LNER – Middlesbrough – 1 tpd
- LNER – Skipton – 1 tpd
- LNER – Sunderland – 1 tpd
- LNER – York- 1 tp2h
- Lumo – Edinburgh – 5 tpd
This gives totals of 9 tp2h and 28 tpd
Marylebone
Trains are.
- Chiltern – Birmingham – 2 tph
This gives totals of 2 tph
St. Pancras
Trains are.
- EMR – Corby – two tph
- EMR – Nottingham – two tph
- EMR – Sheffield- two tph
This gives totals of 6 tph
Grand Totals
Grand totals are 17 tph, 10 tp2h and 44 tpd
I will assume.
- 10 tp2h is equivalent to 5 tph.
- 44 tpd is equivalent to 3 tph if trains start journeys between 0600 and 2100.
This means that currently, there is the equivalent of 25 tph between London and the North.
The Effect Of High Speed Two
The capacity of High Speed Two is 17 tph, so, that appears to be a 68 % increase in paths to the North.
Consider.
- Assume we need 25 tph between London and the North.
- 17 tph will be on High Speed Two.
- 8 tph will be on classic routes like the East Coast Main Line, Midland Main Line and West Coast Main Line.
- High Speed Two trains are 400 metres long.
- Current trains are about 240 metres long.
I have done a weighted calculation, which shows that passenger capacity between London and the North, will increase by around 45 %.
High Speed Two will surely release paths between London and the North on the classic routes, that could accommodate somewhere around 17 tph.
These could be used for.
- Services not suitable for High Speed Two
- New services
- Freight services
- Open access services
There is a lot of capacity that can be reused.
What Will Happen To Classic Routes Between London And The North?
Consider.
- The East Coast Main Line between London and Doncaster, is being upgraded with full digital signalling to allow running at up to 140 mph and increased train frequencies.
- Similar upgrades will be surely be applied to the other classic routes between London and the North.
- Important destinations, that will not be served by High Speed Two, like Coventry, Derby, Leicester, Luton, Milton Keynes and Peterborough could be given high speed connections, to Birmingham, London and Manchester.
- The East Coast Main Line, Midland Main Line and West Coast Main Line will all be electrified with some sections of quadruple track in a few years.
- Currently, the East Coast Main Line, Midland Main Line and West Coast Main Line are mainly 125 mph lines and these could be upgraded to 140 mph with digital signalling.
I could envisage the East Coast Main Line, Midland Main Line and West Coast Main Line being developed into a secondary 140 mph network based on the existing stations lines and services.
Conclusion
High Speed Two is going to have a lot of collateral benefits in Middle England.
More Trains To Carmarthen
The last time, I looked at the number of GWR trains to Carmarthen its Wikipedia entry, it was just a couple.
Today, one train per hour (tph) is shown between London Paddington and Swansea, with this supplementary information.
- 7 trains per day continue to Carmarthen, calling at Gowerton (limited), Llanelli, Pembrey & Burry Port, Kidwelly (limited) and Ferryside (limited)
- On Summer Saturdays, 2 trains per day run to Pembroke Dock, calling at all stations between Carmarthen and Pembroke Dock
In Regulator Approves New Grand Union Train Service From Carmarthen To London Paddington, I talked about the plans of Grand Union Trains to run five trains per day (tpd) between London Paddington and Carmarthen.
This would appear to give a total of twelve tpd between London Paddington and Carmarthen.
This page on the Crown Estate web site is entitled Celtic Sea Floating Offshore Wind, where this is said.
The Government has set an ambition to deliver up to 5GW of floating wind by 2030, with rapid expansion anticipated thereafter.
At The Crown Estate, we are committed to helping the UK achieve its net zero ambitions. To support this, we are excited to deliver a new leasing opportunity in the Celtic Sea for the first generation of commercial-scale floating offshore windfarms – unlocking up to 4GW of new clean energy capacity by 2035, kick-starting industry in the region, and providing power to almost four million homes.
We will be inviting full commercial scale projects up to 1GW, which may be developed in a phased or ‘stepping stone’ approach. Recognising the need to develop the UK supply chain and supporting infrastructure for this nascent technology, this approach is deliberately intended to provide opportunities for growth and investment. This will also facilitate the co-ordination of the necessary infrastructure, such as ports and grid connections, all of which are key to the sustainable development of the UK floating wind sector over the long term.
This leasing opportunity will provide the foundation for greater capacity in the future and help establish an exciting new industrial sector for the UK, creating opportunities for significant new investment in jobs, skills and infrastructure for the communities onshore.
It appears to me, that Great Western Railway and Grand Union Trains both believe that there will be large increase in demand for rail travel between London Paddington and Carmarthen and also along the South Wales Coast.
Grand Union Trains are also proposing the building of a new parkway station at Parc Felindre North of Swansea.
But then this area of South Wales and the Celtic Sea, has the four things needed for the development of up to 5 GW of offshore wind; a lot of wind, a large area of empty sea, steel and deep water ports to assemble all the floating wind turbines.
A Zero-Carbon High Speed Railway Between London Paddington And Carmarthen
Consider.
- The Great Western Railway between London Paddington and Carmarthen is 222.5 miles and trains take around three hours and fifty minutes, which is an average speed of 58 mph.
- Between Bristol Parkway and Reading stations, the operating speed is 125 mph.
- In South Wales, the operating speed is generally between 70 and 100 mph.
- Only the 77.4 miles between Cardiff Central and Carmarthen via Swansea is not electrified.
There is probably scope to increase the operating speed using digital signalling and by improving the track.
I would suspect that a time between London Paddington and Carmarthen of under three-and-a-half hours is possible.
The Range Of Battery-Electric Trains
Hitachi have not been specific about the zero-carbon range of their Intercity Tri-Mode Battery Train, which is described in this Hitachi infographic.
In Stadler FLIRT Akku Battery Train Demonstrates 185km Range, I talk about Stadler’s record-braking Battery-electric; Akku, which covered 185 km or 115 miles.
I suspect that Hitachi’s engineers and those at their battery suppliers; Turntide Technology will be ultra-competitive, so I wouldn’t be surprised that the zero-carbon range of the Hitachi train is very competitive to the Stadler FLIRT Akku.
A hundred mile range would allow electric services to be run on these routes.
- Cardiff and Carmarthen – 77.4 miles
- Chippenham and Bristol Temple Meads and return – 48.8 miles
- Chippenham and Bristol Western-super-Mare and return – 86.9 miles
- Swindon and Cheltenham Spa and return – 86.5 miles
- East Coast Main Line and Hull and return – 72.2 miles
- Plymouth and Penzance – 79.5 miles
- Taunton and Newbury – 89.6 miles
- York and Scarborough and return – 84.1 miles
I am fairly sure that Hitachi will aim for at least a hundred mile battery range for their Intercity Tri-Mode Battery Train.
- This would be competitive with other train manufacturers like Stadler and Siemens.
- They would handle a lot of important routes.
- With development they could probably handle Edinburgh and Inverness.
I can’t wait to have a ride.
The Anonymous Widower 