Manchester To London Train To Run Without Passengers
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC.
This is the sub-heading.
A train service taking commuters from Manchester to London is to run empty for around five months following a decision by the rail regulator.
These three paragraphs add more detail.
A decision by the Office of Rail and Road (ORR), means the 07:00 GMT service operated by Avanti West Coast from Manchester Piccadilly to London will still run but will only be used to carry staff from mid-December.
An Avanti West Coast spokesperson said they were “disappointed” with the decision, which would “clearly impact those customers who already use these services”.
An ORR spokesperson said the decision was made on “robust evidence” from Network Rail to guard against possible service disruption on the West Coast Main Line.
It is a long article on the BBC and I suspect, it is one of those, that should be fully-read before commenting.
I looked up last Friday’s service and found this.
- It was an eleven-coach Class 390 train.
- The train goes via Macclesfield, Stoke-on-Trent and Stafford, but only stops to pick up passengers at Stockport.
- It left on time at 07:00.
- It arrived in London at 09:20, which was twenty-one minutes late.
I think, I’ll see this train arrive on Monday.
Could Avanti West Coast Be Planning A Fast Service From Both Liverpool and Manchester?
Consider.
- Manchester Piccadilly has a 07:00 train to Euston, that takes two hours via Stoke-on-Trent.
- The train also stops at Stockport.
- The Manchester Piccadilly train is an eleven-car Class 390 train, that is 265.3 metres long.
- Liverpool Lime Street has a 06:43 train to Euston, that takes two hours and 11 minutes via Crewe, that stops at Runcorn.
- The Liverpool Lime Street train is a seven-car Class 807 train, that is 182 metres long.
Note.
- I wonder, if at some time in the future, these two services could both be run by seven-car Class 807 trains, that joined at Crewe.
- This might not have been possible with Class 390 trains, as the pair of trains would have been very long.
- Class 390 trains may not be able to split and join.
- I don’t think any extra paths would be needed.
This would give Crewe, Liverpool, Manchester, Runcorn and Stockport, a fast early train to Euston.
Could London And Central Scotland Air Passengers Be Persuaded To Use The Trains?
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Edinburgh?
Wikipedia gives these figures for 2024 for passengers from Edinburgh to London
- London City – 334,873
- London Gatwick – 476,152
- London Heathrow – 1,148,634
- London Luton – 338, 729
- London Stansted – 693,953
This gives a total of 2,992,341.
As Wikipedia doesn’t give complete figures for from London to Edinburgh, for the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume they are the same.
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Glasgow?
Wikipedia gives these figures for 2024 for passengers from Glasgow to London
- London City – 208,405
- London Gatwick – 456,002
- London Heathrow – 954,027
- London Luton – 255,095
- London Stansted – 225,110
This gives a total of 2,098,639.
As Wikipedia doesn’t give complete figures for from London to Glasgow, for the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume they are the same.
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
Adding the two figures gives 5,090,980. in both directions.
Which is an average of 97,903 per week or 13,948 per day.
How Many Train Seats Run Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
These figures are for Friday the 1st of August.
- Aventi West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 5 x 9-car Class 390 train – 2,345 seats
- Aventi West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 16 x 11-car Class 390 train – 6,677 seats
- LNER – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh – 26 x 9-car Class 801 train – 15,886 seats
- Lumo – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh – 5 x 5-car Class 803 train – 2,010 seats
Note.
- All services are all-electric.
- All services are fairly new or have recently been refurbished,
This gives a total of 26,918 train seats.
Adding Lumo’s Service To Glasgow
In Lumo Will Extend Its King’s Cross And Edinburgh Service To Glasgow, I suggested that the Glasgow service would be run as follows from December 2025.
- Two existing Lumo services will leave London as pairs of five-car trains.
- The pairs will split at Edinburgh.
- The leading train will go on to Glasgow Queen Street calling at Edinburgh Haymarket and Falkirk High stations.
- The trailing train will return to London King’s Cross.
- At the end of the day, the two trains in Glasgow will do a fast run back to London King’s Cross as a pair of 5-car trains.
This will add 804 seats per day between London and Glasgow Queen Street in both directions.
The daily total would now total 27,722 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
Adding Lumo’s Service To Stirling
In Lumo To Expand Scotland’s Rail Network With New London-Stirling Rail Route From Spring 2026, I talk about Lumo’s new service to Stirling.
- There will be five trains per day (tpd) in each direction.
- Lumo’s new route will link London Euston directly to Stirling, also calling at Milton Keynes, Nuneaton, Crewe, Preston, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet (serving Coatbridge), Greenfaulds (serving Cumbernauld) and Larbert.
- The service will use 6-car Class 222 trains, which in the linked post, I estimate will have a similar one-class capacity to the Class 803 trains between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh.
- If the capacity of the two train types is similar, this should give operational advantages and allow some more Class 803 trains to run the Euston and Stirling route.
This second Scottish route will add 2010 train seats per day between London Euston and Stirling in both directions.
The daily total would now total 29,732 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
Could More Capacity Be Added Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
I believe some of the Lumo services between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh could be doubled up to a pair of trains.
There would have to be no platform length issues at London King’s Cross, Stevenage, Newcastle and Morpeth stations.
If three trains could be doubled up, that would add 1,206 train seats per day between London and Edinburgh in both directions.
The daily total would now total 30,938 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
I also suspect, that some of the Stirling services could be doubled up.
Connectivity Of England’s Northern Airports To London And Central Scotland
Birmingham Airport
Consider.
- There are easyJet flights to Edinburgh and Glasgow
- There are 1.5 trains per hour (tph) between Birmingham New Street and Edinburgh.
- There are 6 tpd between Birmingham New Street and Glasgow.
You would make your choice and pay the money.
East Midlands Airport
There are no flights or trains to Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Leeds Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Leeds and Edinburgh
- There is one tpd between Leeds and Glasgow
Could Leeds and Glasgow get better connectivity?
Liverpool Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Liverpool Lime Street and Edinburgh
- There is three tpd between Liverpool Lime Street and Glasgow
The Liverpool area is well connected to Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston stations on the West Coast Main Line for alternative services to Glasgow.
Manchester Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Manchester Airport and Scotland via Manchester Piccadilly and Manchester Oxford Road, which alternates between Edinburgh and Glasgow.
The Manchester area is well connected to Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston stations on the West Coast Main Line for alternative services to Glasgow.
Omio gives this summary of flights between Heathrow and Manchester airports.
Flights from Manchester Airport to London Heathrow Airport depart on average 8 times per day, taking around 1h 6m. Cheap flight tickets for this journey start at £63 but you can travel from only £16 by coach.
Wrightbus and others will be producing mouse-quiet hydrogen-powered coaches in a couple of years. I suspect these will give short flights a good kicking.
Newcastle Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is three tph between Newcastle and Edinburgh with an additional 5 tpd from Lumo.
- There is two tpd between Newcastle and Glasgow.
- There is one tpd between Newcastle and Stirling.
- From December 2025, Lumo will add two tpd from Newcastle to Glasgow and one tpd from Glasgow to Newcastle.
- In Lumo Will Extend Its King’s Cross And Edinburgh Service To Glasgow, I stated that I believe that Lumo’s Glasgow to Newcastle service will be a late evening ten-car train, so travellers can have a long day in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Newcastle and still return to London.
Lumo would appear to fill in the gap between Newcastle and Glasgow.
Google AI gives this summary of flights between Heathrow and Newcastle airports.
There are usually 5-6 direct flights per day between Newcastle and Heathrow airports. These flights are operated by British Airways. The average flight time is around 1 hour and 10 minutes.
Note.
- In 2024, 497, 469 passengers flew between between Heathrow and Newcastle airports, which is an average of 681 passengers in each direction every day.
- This was an increase of 13.6 % on 2023.
- From December Lumo will be running extra London King’s Cross and Newcastle services, with each train having 402 seats.
- The improvements in rail services in and around Newcastle in recent months, will surely bring more passengers to use trains from Newcastle station.
- Will Lumo also target adverts at airline passengers?
London and Newcastle could be another route for mouse-quiet hydrogen-powered coaches.
Conclusion
These numbers summarise my calculations.
- Currently an average of 13,948 passengers per day fly between London and Central Scotland.
- Currently, there are 26,918 train seats available per day between London and Central Scotland.
- In December 2025, Lumo will add another 804 low-cost train seats between London King’s Cross and Glasgow Queen Street.
- In Spring 2026, Lumo will add 2010 low-cost train seats between London Euston and Stirling.
- From Spring 2026, there will be 29,732 train seats available per day between London and Central Scotland.
- This represents a 10 % increase of seats on the trains between London and Central Scotland.
How many passengers, who normally fly, will switch to using the train?
- Lumo may only offer one class, but you get a trolley and can order food from M & S and others to be delivered to your seat.
- Both LNER and Lumo accept dogs. I don’t know about Avanti.
- All services will be all-electric, when Lumo gets its new electric trains for Stirling, in a few years.
- It looks to me like Lumo could be offering a late train back to London from Edinburgh and Glasgow.
- Digital signalling on the East Coast Main Line should speed up services.
If Lumo to Glasgow and Stirling works out, it could also cut the total carbon footprint of travel between London and Central Scotland.
A Taste Of The Future
On Friday, I went to Chester and took a train home from Crewe to Euston.
It was a new Hitachi Class 805, that sped me to London, with just a stop at Milton Keynes.
This picture shows the train arriving at Crewe.
Note.
- High Speed Two it is not, but it went most of the way to Euston at 125 mph in an hour and 50 minutes.
- High Speed Two will take 56 minutes, although that is not cast in stone and steel yet.
- Crewe is one of the towns and cities, that will benefit most from High Speed Two.
But whether High Speed Two is delivered or or not, Crewe’s train service should improve in Spring 2026, as the first Lumo service on the West Coast Main Line service will be starting.
I describe the service in Lumo To Expand Scotland’s Rail Network With New London-Stirling Rail Route From Spring 2026.
This paragraph from the linked post, describes the route.
Lumo’s new route will link London Euston directly to Stirling, also calling at Milton Keynes, Nuneaton, Crewe, Preston, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet (serving Coatbridge), Greenfaulds (serving Cumbernauld) and Larbert.
It is fully-electrified and can support 125 mph running most, if not all, of the way.
It will certainly give knowledgeable travellers options on how they travel on the West Coast Main Line.
Lumo are also proposing another open access service on the West Coast Main Line to Rochdale, which will increase travel options.
My only worry is that Heidi Alexander will cancel it, on the grounds that open access services abstract the revenue of Great British Railways.
But then after announcing the service in a reception in Holyrood, she surely couldn’t cancel it now.
On the other hand, it could be that this Labour Government has discovered that open access trains are a more affordable way of developing rail services to and from London and over longer distances.
Consider.
- Recently, Lumo has proposed open access services from London to Carmarthen, Paignton, Rochdale and Stirling.
- Recently, Arriva has proposed open access services from London to Cleethorpes, Grimsby and Scunthorpe and between Newcastle and Brighton.
- Recently, Alsthom has proposed open access services from London to Shewsbury and Wrexham.
Not one of these services will cost the government a lot of money, but Network Rail will pick up access charges.
So has Heidi Alexander seen sense and feels that it is better to allow more open access services?
Could Any Other Open Access Services Be Opened On The West Coast Main Line?
London Euston and Rochdale is planned by Lumo and I wrote about it in FirstGroup’s Lumo Seeks To Launch Rochdale – London Open Access Service.
This sentence from the linked post, gives the route.
The trains would call at Warrington Bank Quay, Newton-le-Willows, Eccles and Manchester Victoria.
Other possibilities would surely be Blackpool and Barrow-in-Furness, but Blackpool gets a three trains per day (tpd) service from Euston and frequent trains from Preston.
Barrow-in-Furness could be a very useful destination.
With increased defence spending, the shipyards will be busy.
It could be another gateway to the Lake District.
Services could be extended to Sellafield, Whitehaven and Workington.
This OpenRailwayMap shows the Cumbrian Coast Line between the West Coast Main Line and Barrow-in-Furness.
Note.
- The red tracks on the Eastern side of the map is the electrified West Coast Main Line.
- At the bottom of the map on the West Coast Main Line is Lancaster, with its station.
- The black track going West from Lancaster is the Morecambe and Heysham branch.
- The black track going West across the top of the map is the Cumbrian Coast Line.
- Barrow-in-Furness station is indicated by the blue arrow.
- The length of track without electrification on the route is less than thirty miles.
One of Lumo’s battery-electric trains would easily handle a London Euston and Barrow-in-Furness route.
Conclusion
There is obviously scope for new railway routes in the UK and some will be suitable for open access operators.
Perhaps, we need the Office of Road and Rail to be more proactive in deciding, when a route is to be served and then select an operator.
It would need to be an unbiased apolitical process, to stop an incumbent political party running trains to marginal seats, they hoped to win.
Could High Speed Two Serve Chester And North Wales?
This diagram shows High Speed Two services, as they were originally envisaged before Phase 2 was discontinued.
Note.
- Trains to the left of the vertical black line are Phase 1 and those to the right are Phase 2.
- Full-Size trains are shown in blue.
- Classic-Compatible trains are shown in yellow.
- Blue circles are shown, where trains stop.
- The dotted circles are where trains split and join.
- In the red boxes routes alternate every hour.
Click on the diagram to enlarge it.
If I look at the trains counting from the left of the diagram, I see the following.
- Train 4 is a pair of Classic-Compatible trains, that split and join at Crewe, with one train going to Lancaster and the other to Liverpool Lime Street.
- Train 5 is a single Classic-Compatible train going to Liverpool Lime Street.
This gives Liverpool Lime Street two trains per hour (tph) and Lancaster one tph
Could train 5 be a a pair of Classic-Compatible trains, that split and join at Crewe, with one train going to Holyhead via Chester and the other to Liverpool Lime Street?
Consider.
- Yesterday, a pair of Class 805 trains, ran between Euston and Holyhead. Each Class 805 train is 130 metres long, so a pair of Class 805 trains is sixty metres longer than a High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train.
- I am certain, that a single High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train will fit the platforms between Crewe and Holyhead.
- Crewe and Holyhead is 105.5 miles and the route is not electrified.
- Crewe and Holyhead is double-track all the way except for the Britannia Bridge over the Menai Strait.
- With the exception of perhaps 2 to 3 miles, half the route between Crewe and Holyhead has a line speed of 90 mph. with the other half being 75 mph.
- Given the countryside and the number of important historic sites, electrification might be difficult, as the heritage Taliban will say no!
- It was promised by the last government that Crewe and Holyhead would be electrified, but I will assume it won’t be!
- Hitachi, who are part of the consortium building the High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains have developed battery-electric high speed train technology, which is likely to be applied to the Current Class 805 trains, that work the route.
- Hitachi’s battery-electric high speed train technology can propel the trains at up to 125 mph, provided the track allows it.
I feel that Crewe and Holyhead can be developed into one of the most iconic high speed railways in the world, by using battery-electric high-speed trains. Tourists would come from all over the world, to experience mouse-quiet battery-electric trains.
High Speed Two should go for it!
These are some thoughts.
It Would Be A Green Route To Ireland
Consider.
The fastest direct Avanti service to Holyhead is scheduled to take three hours and forty-two minutes, with one hour and 46 minutes between Euston and Crewe, and one hour and fifty-seven minutes between Crewe and Holyhead.
- High Speed Two will knock thirty-four minutes off the time between Euston and Crewe, when the core route between Euston and Crewe is complete, which will reduce the time to three hours eight minutes, with with one hour and 12 minutes between Euston and Crewe, and one hour and fifty-seven minutes between Crewe and Holyhead.
- The Crewe and Holyhead section of the route would still take one hours and fifty-seven minutes, which is an average speed of just 54 mph, along the North Wales Coast.
- An overall time of three hours between Euston and Holyhead, would require an average speed along the North Wales coast, which would be an average speed of just 62 mph.
- The operating speed is an average of around 80 mph between Crewe and Holyhead, and would run the section of the route in 79 minutes, which would mean a Euston and Holyhead time of two hours and 31 minutes.
- A 100 mph average between Crewe and Holyhead, would run the section of the route in 63 minutes, which would mean a Euston and Holyhead time of of two hours and 15 minutes.
I believe that with track improvements, a more efficient stopping pattern and using Hitachi’s battery technology, that battery-electric High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains could run between Euston and Holyhead in under two hours.
A fast ferry would complete the route between Holyhead and Dun Laoghaire.
Could More Than One Train Per Hour Be Sent To Chester And North Wales?
Consider.
- Because of the cancellation of Phase 2 of High Speed 2, there are spare paths on High Speed Two between London and the West Midlands.
- If the core section of High Speed Two is extended Northwards to Crewe, as advocated by Dyan Perry of the High Speed Rail Group, that I wrote about in The Future Of HS2 Could Lie In Its Original Vision, this would create extra paths to Crewe.
- If the West Midlands and Crewe section of the High Speed Two route has the same capacity as London Euston and the West Midlands it could handle seventeen tph.
- At present it looks like with the cancellation of Phase 2, the West Midlands and Crewe section will handle just ten tph.
, So there will be seven spare paths between Euston and Crewe!
In fact it will be better than that, as each train could be a pair of Classic-Compatible trains, that split and joined to serve two destinations.
Could A North Wales Service Call At Hawarden Airport?
Hawarden Airport is where Airbus build wings for their aircraft in the UK.This Google Map shows Hawarden Airport.
Note.
- The large runway.
- The various factory buildings.
- The North Wales Coast Line between Chester and Holyhead, runs along the North side of the Airport.
I doubt if Airbus wanted a station, it would be difficult to arrange.
Conclusion
Because of the vacant paths, it would appear that extra services to North Wales and North West England can be fitted in.
The Future Of HS2 Could Lie In Its Original Vision
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Railway Gazette.
This is the sub-heading.
High Speed 2 should be rescoped to run from London Euston to Crewe, taking advantage of the lessons learned and supply chain foundations established during Phase 1, says Dyan Perry, Chair of the High Speed Rail Group.
The article has been written by Dyan Perry, who knows her railways and especially high speed ones well.
These two first paragraphs introduce her arguments.
High Speed 2 stands at a defining crossroads. Phase 1 from Old Oak Common to Birmingham has the green light, and under the new leadership of HS2 Ltd CEO Mark Wild the project is undergoing a positive and much needed ’reset’. With around 31 000 jobs currently supported, more than 75% of tunnelling completed and construction underway on two-thirds of HS2’s viaducts, momentum is building again.
This fresh injection of energy is welcome after years of shifting goalposts and cuts to the project’s scope. However, while Phase I pushes ahead, the handbrake has been pulled on the next critical phases of the project: the route from the West Midlands to Crewe and Old Oak Common to London Euston.
In the short term, this may appear fiscally sensible. However, as with all infrastructure investments, the project and potential returns must be viewed through a long-term lens. After all, a half-built railway moulded by short-term decision-making risks squandering investment to date and losing billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money.
The High Speed Rail Group (HSRG) has these recommendations.
- A “Euston to Crewe” Core.
- West Midlands to Crewe must be given the go-ahead before the powers to do so run out. This would provide much needed capacity on the West Coast Main Line.
- Use the lessons learned on Phase 1 to build West Midlands to Crewe more effectively.
- Build a streamlined, cost effective station at Euston.
- HSRG believes a concession let for a London to Birmingham and Crewe railway line, one that takes learning from the High Speed One financing model, could generate between £7·5bn and £10bn in concession value, a significant return for taxpayers.
High Speed Two needs a cohesive long term plan.
I very much agree with what Dyan and the HSRG are saying.
I also have some related thoughts.
High Speed East Coast
I am a Control Engineer by training and I’ve felt for some time, that the some of the bottlenecks on the East Coast Main Line to the South of Doncaster could be solved by intelligent digital signalling.
I believe that the major cities of the North-East of England and Eastern Scotland would be best served by direct high speed trains from London on the East Coast Main Line. I also think, that such an approach would deliver similar times to High Speed Two via Birmingham.
North of York
Just as stations on the West Coast to the North of Crewe will be served by High Speed Two and the West Coast Main Line, stations North of York will be served by trains going up the East Coast Main Line.
The Element Of Competition
I said earlier, that if a 30-year concession were to be sold for the West Coast Main Line, it could raise between £7.5bn and £10bn.
So why not sell a concession for the East Coast Main Line?
A further benefit, is that competition between the two concessions and the budget airlines, might bring down timings and prices, just as competition did in the Railway Races of 1888 and 1895.
High Speed North Wales
I have believed for some time, that there is a need for a zero-carbon (green) route between London and Dublin and ultimately between the Channel Tunnel and Dublin.
The last Conservative government promised to electrify Crewe and Holyhead along the North Wales Coast.
This route could deliver passengers to Holyhead for a zero-carbon high speed catamaran to Dublin.
The EU would be a beneficiary and might like to help fund the route.
Destination Manchester
The title of this post is the same as the title of this page on the London North Western Railway web site.
The page introduces, the operator’s proposed new service to Manchester.
As a progressive rail operator we’re always looking to develop our services and timetables to provide a better travelling experience for our customers. We are ambitious and our team seek innovative solutions to create new journey opportunities.
That’s why we have developed proposals for our trains to begin serving Manchester for the first time. Under the plans, our existing hourly service between Crewe and London Euston would be extended to Manchester city centre from summer 2026.
Following the cancellation of the northern leg of HS2, these proposals will provide much-needed connectivity between Manchester, the West Midlands and London, with thousands of extra seats every day.
In more detail, the extended London Euston and Crewe service to Manchester Victoria station, will create the following.
- Additional capacity and comfortable, affordable journeys to and from Manchester city centre
- A great alternative to car and coach travel, with fares up to 50% cheaper than the main intercity train operator
- New regular direct services to Warrington for passengers at Milton Keynes, Rugby and Lichfield
- New regular direct services to Manchester for passengers at Rugeley, Lichfield, Tamworth and Atherstone
Note.
- The service will pass through Warrington Bank Quay, Stockport, Earlestown, Newton-le-Willows, Eccles and Salford Central to reach Manchester Victoria, so could be a comprehensive service to the Northern and Western parts of Manchester City Centre. It would just depend on the stopping pattern in the City Centre.
- There would be good connections to Manchester Metrolink at Eccles and Manchester Victoria.
- All stations on the Manchester Metrolink can be reached either direct or with a single change from Manchester Victoria.
- Manchester Metrolink is touch-in and out with a credit card.
- Manchester Victoria is very well connected by rail to cities and important destinations across the North including Blackburn, Blackpool, Bradford, Burnley, Halifax, Hebden Bridge, Huddersfield, Leeds, Liverpool, Preston, Wigan and York.
- The page talks of a London Euston and Manchester Victoria time of three hours and ten minutes.
- Manchester Stations is a group of the four stations; Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Oxford Road, Manchester Victoria and Deansgate. Often a ticket to Manchester Stations is a few pounds cheaper and more convenient, if you are visiting several places in the City Centre.
The London Euston and Manchester Victoria service looks to me to be a well-thought out proposal.
A New Connection To Manchester Airport
Under a title of Anything Else on the page on the London North Western Railway web site, this is said.
As well as the proposal to extend our London Euston-Crewe services to Manchester Victoria, we are also proposing to begin running trains to Manchester Airport. This will involve extending our existing service between Stafford and Crewe, providing direct connectivity to the airport from Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire. More details on this proposal will be announced in due course.
Note.
- The extended Stafford and Manchester Airport service could call at Stone, Stoke-on-Trent, Longport, Kidsgrove, Alsager, Crewe, and possibly Wilmslow and Styal.
- Stafford, Stone, Stoke-on-Trent, Longport, Kidsgrove and Alsager would gain direct services to and from Manchester Airport.
- It would appear that the current Stafford and Crewe service waits in Stafford station for at least fifteen minutes.
- The current Stafford and Crewe service appears to always use platform 6 at Stafford.
- The current Euston and Crewe service appears to always use platform 3 at Stafford.
- The current Crewe and Euston service appears to always use platform 1 at Stafford.
- The current Birmingham and Liverpool service appears to always use platform 5 at Stafford.
- The current Liverpool and Birmingham service appears to always use platform 4 at Stafford.
I suspect that trains can be timetabled, so that the following is possible.
- An hourly London Euston and Manchester Airport service with a quick step-free change at Stafford between the London Euston and Manchester Victoria service and the Stafford and Manchester Airport service.
- An hourly Manchester Airport and London Euston service with a quick step-free change at Stafford between the Manchester Airport and Stafford service and the Manchester Victoria and London Euston service.
- An hourly Birmingham New Street and Manchester Airport service with a quick cross-platform change at Stafford between the Birmingham New Street and Liverpool Lime Street service and the Stafford and Manchester Airport service.
- An hourly Manchester Airport and Birmingham New Street service with a quick step-free change at Stafford between the Manchester Airport and Stafford service and the Liverpool Lime Street and Birmingham New Street service.
Note.
- I suspect more changes at Stafford could be cross-platform.
- I also suspect that it is possible to arrange that all services to the same destination, leave from the same platform, at the same time or times each hour.
- It would appear too, that if you want a cheap ticket price to Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Victoria or Stoke-on-Trent, then you may have to change at Stafford.
It appears all more affordable London Northwestern Railway trains will go via Stafford.
I have some further thoughts.
Stafford And Manchester Airport Timings
With all the stops, it looks like Stafford and Manchester Airport will take about 78 minutes, but if they used the West Coast Main Line and didn’t stop the time could be reduced to just under an hour.
The Class 730 Trains
The services will be run by 110 mph Class 730 trains.
In 2018, there was talk of a bi-mode 125 mph Aventra, which I wrote about in Bombardier Bi-Mode Aventra To Feature Battery Power.
Currently, the Class 730 trains are 110 mph trains.
Would it help timetabling and capacity if these trains could be stretched to 125 mph?
Avanti West Coast
Several Avanti West Coast services stop at Stafford.
Their services could be half-an-hour quicker to Stafford, but they wouldn’t have the same stopping patterns.
In response to the competition, Avanti West Coast might run a few Manchester Airport Expresses using their new Class 805 trains.
A Second Service Between Stoke And Manchester Airport
I feel this might be needed and perhaps it could be faster, by using the direct route between Stafford and Crewe.
Avanti West Coast could use it to create a one-change fast service between London Euston and Manchester Airport, if they felt such a service were to be needed.
Conclusion
I like this proposal.
But there is a lot of fine tuning to do!
250,000 Seats A Day On The WCML?
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Rail Engineer.
These are the first three paragraphs.
In the Parliamentary debate on the cancellation of HS2 phase 2, Transport Minister Mark Harper claimed that what remains of HS2 will deliver “a massive increase in capacity to the West Coast Main Line (WCML)” by providing 250,000 seats a day. This figure was subsequently repeated by the Prime Minister and Rail Minister who advised that it applies “across the primary long-distance operator on the West Coast.”
Yet without HS2 phase 2a, there is to be no WCML capacity increase north of Lichfield. Furthermore, with no HS2 station in Manchester it will not be possible to run the planned two-unit 400-metre HS2 trains to the city. Instead, there can only be single 200-metre unit HS2 trains which are shorter than the current 265-metre Pendolino trains.
Furthermore, 250,000 seats a day is equivalent to running 17 x 605-seat Pendolinos an hour, 24 hours a day. This is clearly not credible.
Note.
- The writer’s assumptions about Manchester are correct.
- Liverpool Lime Street is already is already HS2-ready for trains between Crewe and London, after the recent upgrade.
- Liverpool Lime Street will certainly be able to take two London trains per hour (tph), which can only be single 200-metre unit HS2 trains.
- Liverpool Lime Street may be able to take a third London train per hour.
These are my thoughts.
Current Services
Current services include.
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Blackpool North via Birmingham New Street – 2 trains per day (tpd)
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Birmingham New Street – 5 tpd
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Edinburgh Waverley via Birmingham New Street – 7 tpd
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Birmingham New Street – 1 tph
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Holyhead – 10 tpd
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street – 1 tph – Increasing to 2 tph.
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and Stockport – 1 tph
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Stoke-on-Trent and Stockport – 1 tph
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport – 1 tph
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 1 tph.
- West Midlands Trains – London and Birmingham New Street – 2 tph
- West Midlands Trains – London and Crewe – 1 tph
- West Midlands Trains – Birmingham New Street and Liverpool Lime Street – 1 tph
It looks like there are eight Avanti West Coast tph and two West Midlands Trains tph between Stafford and Crewe.
High Speed Two Services
This diagram shows High Speed Two services, as they were originally envisaged before Phase 2 was discontinued.
Note.
- Trains to the left of the vertical black line are Phase 1 and those to the right are Phase 2.
- Full-Size trains are shown in blue.
- Classic-Compatible trains are shown in yellow.
- The dotted circles are where trains split and join.
- In the red boxes routes alternate every hour.
- Was Lancaster chosen as it’s close to the new Eden Project Morecambe?
Click on the diagram to enlarge it.
The Author’s Assumption
The author has made these assumptions.
- Current West Coast Main Line capacity North of Lichfield; Avanti West Coast – 8 tph, West Midlands – 1 tph and freight trains – 4 tph
- HS2 offers no extra capacity North of Lichfield.
- Max capacity ; Old Oak Common – 8 tph and London Euston – 10 tph.
- 400-metre long trains North of Birmingham ; Min – 1 tph to Edinburgh/Glasgow
- 400-metre long trains North of Birmingham ; Max – plus 3 tph to Liverpool/Manchester
- Trains operate a maximum of 14 hours per day.
I would add.
- All pairs of 200-metre long trains split and join at Crewe.
- Birmingham Curzon Street has seven platforms.
- Lancaster and Macclesfield have long bay platforms, that can handle 200-metre trains
- Liverpool Lime Street and Manchester Piccadilly have two platforms, that can handle 200-metre trains.
- I suspect
- Liverpool Lime Street and Manchester Piccadilly could both handle four 200-metre trains tph hour – Three for London and one for Birmingham.
There is a surprising amount of capacity in the North.
The Author’s Minimum Plan For HS1 – Phase 1
I think his minimum plan is as follows.
- Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street – 400-metre long trains – 3 tph
- Old Oak Common and Liverpool Lime Street/Lancaster – 400-metre long trains – 1 tph – Splits at Crewe.
- Old Oak Common and Liverpool Lime Street – 200-metre long trains – 1 tph
- Old Oak Common and Macclesfield via Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent – 200-metre long trains – 1 tph
- Old Oak Common and Manchester Piccadilly – 200-metre long trains – 2 tph
- Old Oak Common and Edinburgh Waverley/Glasgow Central – 400-metre long trains – 1 tph – Splits at Crewe.
Note.
- 400-metre long trains are a pair of 200-metre long trains, that can split and join.
- This fulfils all the requirements of the original HS2 timetable for Phase 1.
- The total is nine tph and Old Oak Common can only handle 8 tph.
- Perhaps, the Liverpool Lime Street service could be a Liverpool Lime Street/Manchester Piccadilly service, that splits at Crewe?
I think it could work with London having the following services.
- Birmingham Curzon Street – 400-metre long trains – 3 tph
- Birmingham International – 400-metre long trains – 4 tph
- Carlisle – 200-metre long trains – 1 tph
- Crewe – 400-metre long trains – 3 tph
- Edinburgh Waverley – 200-metre long trains – 1 tph
- Glasgow Central – 200-metre long trains – 1 tph
- Lancaster – 200 metre long trains – 1 tph
- Liverpool Lime Street – 200-metre long trains – 2 tph
- Macclesfield – 200-metre long trains – 1 tph
- Manchester Piccadilly – 200-metre long trains – 2/3 tph
- Preston – 200-metre long trains – 2 tph
- Stafford – 200-metre long trains – 1 tph
- Stoke-on-Trent – 200-metre long trains – 1 tph
- Warrington Bank Quay – 200-metre long trains – 1 tph
- Wigan North Western – 200-metre long trains – 1 tph
Services care as good or better than the current services.
The Author’s Maximum Plan For HS1 – Phase 1
I think his maximum plan is as follows.
- London Euston and Birmingham Curzon Street – 400-metre long trains – 3 tph
- London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street/Lancaster – 400-metre long trains – 1 tph – Splits at Crewe.
- London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street/Manchester Piccadilly – 400-metre long trains – 1 tph – Splits at Crewe.
- London Euston and Macclesfield via Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent – 200-metre long trains – 1 tph
- London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly – 200-metre long trains – 2 tph
- London Euston and Edinburgh Waverley/Glasgow Central – 400-metre long trains – 1 tph – Splits at Crewe.
Note.
- 400-metre long trains are a pair of 200-metre long trains, that can split and join.
- This fulfils all the requirements of the original HS2 timetable for Phase 1.
- That is nine tph and London Euston can handle 10 tph.
- Perhaps, a tenth train could serve Edinburgh Waverley/Glasgow Central with a split at Crewe.
It should work.
Could High Speed Birmingham Curzon Street and Liverpool Lime Street And Manchester Piccadilly Services Be Provided With A Reverse At Birmingham Curzon Street?
A train would take this route.
- A 400 metre long train would leave London and go to Birmingham Curzon Street.
- At Birmingham Curzon Street the train would reverse and travel to Crewe.
- At Crewe the train would split with separate trains going to Liverpool Lime Street and Manchester Piccadilly.
Note.
- Automation could be used extensively to do the joining and splitting.
- The train would have an onboard team of drivers, so all joins, reverses and splits are performed as fast as possible.
- A local service could be paired with each train, so that intermediate stations on the Liverpool and Manchester branches had excellent connections to Birmingham and the South.
Suppose the maximum plan is now as follows.
- London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street/Manchester Piccadilly via Birmingham Curzon Street – 400 metre long trains – 3 tph – Reverses at Birmingham Curzon Street – Splits at Crewe.
- London Euston and Birmingham Curzon Street – 400 metre long trains – 1 tph
- London Euston and Lancaster – 200 metre long trains – 1 tph
- London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street – 200 metre long trains – 1 tph
- London Euston and Macclesfield via Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent – 200 metre long trains – 1 tph
- London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly – 200 metre long trains – 1 tph
- London Euston and Edinburgh Waverley/Glasgow Central – 400 metre long trains – 2 tph – Splits at Crewe.
Note.
- Birmingham Curzon Street, Liverpool Lime Street and Manchester Piccadilly would all get four tph to and from London.
- Birmingham Curzon Street, Liverpool Lime Street and Manchester Piccadilly would all get one tph to and from London, that could be non-stop and didn’t join, reverse or split.
- Birmingham Curzon Street and Liverpool Lime Street would have a three tph service.
- Birmingham Curzon Street and Manchester Piccadilly would have a three tph service.
- Lancaster, Edinburgh Waverley, Glasgow Central and other stations would get the originally-promised service to and from London.
- That is ten tph to and from London Euston and the station can handle that number of trains.
It should work.
Could High Speed Birmingham Curzon Street and Edinburgh Waverley and Glasgow Central Services Be Provided With A Reverse At Birmingham Curzon Street?
In the previous section, I showed how, three tph between London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street/Manchester Piccadilly could be provided with a reverse at Birmingham Curzon Street.
So could the fourth train between London and Birmingham Curzon Street take this route?
- A 400 metre long train would leave London and go to Birmingham Curzon Street.
- At Birmingham Curzon Street the train would reverse and travel to Crewe, or another station, where the split can be performed.
- The train would split with separate trains going to Edinburgh Waverley and Glasgow Central.
Note.
- They would use the current paths used by Avanti West Coast Birmingham and Scotland services along the West Coast Main Line.
- This would give a third train to both Edinburgh Waverley and Glasgow Central.
It certainly appears that by using a reverse at Birmingham Curzon Street, more capacity can be created on the West Coast Main Line/HS2 route.
Could High Speed Two Serve North Wales?
It finally looks like the North Wales Coast Lines will finally be electrified.
- Would this allow a 200 metre long train to run all the way to Holyhead for the boats to Ireland?
- There could be a join and split at Crewe with another train.
- Chester would also be served by HS2.
It would create a zero-carbon route to Ireland.
What Would Be The Daily Number Of Passengers Carried?
The maximum plan could now be as follows.
- London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street/Manchester Piccadilly via Birmingham Curzon Street – 400 metre long trains – 3 tph – Splits at Crewe.
- London Euston and Edinburgh Waverley/Glasgow Central via Birmingham Curzon Street – 400 metre long trains – 1 tph – Splits at Crewe.
- London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street/Lancaster – 400 metre long trains – 1 tph – Splits at Crewe.
- London Euston and Macclesfield via Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent – 200 metre long trains – 1 tph
- London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly/Holyhead – 400 metre long trains – 1 tph – Splits at Crewe.
- London Euston and Edinburgh Waverley/Glasgow Central – 400 metre long trains – 2 tph – Splits at Crewe.
Note.
- There are eight 400 metre long trains and one 200 metre long trains in both directions.
- A 200 metre long train hold 550 passengers.
- There are seventeen 200 metre long tph in both directions.
- Trains operate a maximum of 14 hours per day.
The number of passengers per day is 261,800.
Mayors Propose New Staffordshire To Manchester Rail Line
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce.
These five paragraphs introduce the article.
The mayors of the West Midlands and Greater Manchester have set out proposals for a new railway line between Staffordshire and Manchester Airport in a bid to improve connections to the north.
Work commission by West Midlands mayor Andy Street and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has concluded the new line is the preferred option to tackle congestion on the West Coast Mainline, following the government’s decision to curtail HS2 beyond Birmingham.
A private sector group – chaired by infrastructure expert Sir David Higgins – had been looking at three potential options to improve connectivity between Birmingham and Manchester.
The options included undertaking significant engineering upgrades to the West Coast Main Line, building bypasses at the pinch points on the line and building a new railway between Handsacre and Manchester Airport.
The group, convened by the mayors, is led by global engineering firm Arup with input from over 60 partners from six other firms – Arcadis, Addleshaw Goddard, EY, Dragados, Mace and Skanska.
This paragraph gives the conclusion.
The group has provisionally concluded that a new line – running approximately 70 miles between HS2 at Handsacre and Northern Powerhouse Rail at High Legh – is likely to offer the best combination of costs and benefits.
It looks to me, that this professional approach has led to a sensible answer.
I will now look at the route.
This Open Railway Map shows the tracks to the South of Handsacre.
Note.
- The blue arrow in the North-West corner of the map, indicates the location of the former Armitage station, which had the village of Handsacre to its North-East.
- The red line through Armitage station is the Trent Valley Line.
- Lichfield Trent Valley station is at the bottom of the map.
- The line drawn with large dashes from the South-East corner of the map is the proposed line of High Speed Two. Red indicates under construction and black indicates proposed.
High Speed Two splits into two.
One branch goes North-West to join the Trent Valley Line, whilst the other just stops after about a kilometre.
- All trains for Liverpool, Manchester, North Wales, The North and Scotland will take the Trent Valley Line, when High Speed Two opens.
- Trains for Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and some to Manchester will leave the Trent Valley Line at Colwich Junction.
- All other trains, will take the same route as now and proceed to Crewe via Stafford.
The red dotted line leading from the cancelled branch of High Speed Two shows where the original fast line to Crewe was planned to go.
This Open Railway Map shows the tracks around Crewe.
Note.
- Crewe is the important junction station towards the North-West corner of the map.
- The orange line going South is the West Coast Main Line to The South and London.
- The red dotted line running along the West side of the West Coast Main Line was the proposed route of High Speed Two from Birmingham, London and the South.
This Open Railway Map shows the originally proposed direct route of High Speed Two between Crewe and Handsacre.
Note.
- Crewe is in the North-West corner of the map.
- The blue arrow in the South-East corner of the map, indicates the location of the former Armitage station, which had the village of Handsacre to its North-East.
- The dotted red line was the originally proposed route of High Speed Two.
I feel that this route between Handsacre and Crewe has advantages if it were to be chosen as part of a route between Handsacre and Northern Powerhouse Rail, as recommended by the Mayors and their consultants.
- The route seems to stay well clear of large conurbations.
- A lot of the design work has been at least started and major problems will be known.
- Crewe is the only station on the route, which will need to be upgraded.
- Services to Liverpool, Manchester, North Wales, The North and Scotland will be speeded up.
- With Crewe, Liverpool and North Wales, times could be as High Speed Two promised in the first place.
I feel that building the Handsacre and Crewe section, as originally envisaged, will score high in a benefit/cost analysis
This OpenRailwayMap shows the originally proposed route of High Speed Two between Crewe and Manchester Airport.
Note.
- Crewe is towards the South-West corner of the map.
- Manchester Airport is in the North-East corner of the map.
- The red line going North from Crewe is the West Coast Main Line.
- The dotted red line was the originally proposed route of High Speed Two, between the West Coast Main Line and Manchester Airport.
Northern Powerhouse Rail will go West from Manchester Airport towards Warrington and Liverpool and will join with High Speed Two at a junction at High Legh.
Northern Powerhouse Rail is currently being planned, but surely, if High Speed Two and Northern Powerhouse Rail share a line from High Legh to Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly, this will be a more affordable project.
Services To Crewe
In Could The High Speed Two Link Between Lichfield And Crewe Still Be Built?, which I wrote after much of High Speed Two was chopped in 2023, I said this.
Currently, Avanti West Coast trains take around one hour and thirty minutes between London and Crewe.
The Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two gives these times between London and Crewe.
- Fastest time before High Speed Two – one hour and thirty minutes.
- Time after Phase 2a of High Speed Two opens – fifty-six minutes.
Note.
- That is a time saving of thirty-four minutes.
- High Speed Two Trains will use the direct line between Lichfield and Crewe.
- High Speed Two will also add eighteen tph to the capacity between London and Crewe.
This would seem to mean that any trains going to or through Crewe will be thirty-four minutes faster, if they use High Speed Two between London and Crewe.
If the Handsacre and Crewe direct line is built, it looks like London and Crewe will be the full High Speed Two time of 56 minutes.
Services To Liverpool
Consider.
- Liverpool Lime Street was originally planned to get two trains per hour (tph) to and from London using High Speed Two.
- The approaches into Liverpool were improved a few years ago.
- No more improvements are planned between Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street stations.
- Between Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street stations currently takes 38 minutes.
- There could be time savings on the 16.3 miles between Crewe and Weaver Junction, which currently takes 21 minutes.
It looks like a time of one hour and 34 minutes could be possible, with under one hour and 30 minutes not being impossible.
Services To Manchester
Consider.
- Manchester was originally planned to get three tph to and from London using High Speed Two.
- No improvements are planned between Crewe and the Manchester stations.
- Between Crewe and Manchester Piccadilly stations currently takes 34 minutes.
It looks like a time of one hour and 30 minutes could be possible.
But there is still the option of building a new line between Crewe and Northern Powerhouse Rail at High Legh.
I showed this OpenRailwayMap earlier and it shows the originally proposed route of High Speed Two between Crewe and Manchester Airport.
Note.
- Crewe is towards the South-West corner of the map.
- Manchester Airport is in the North-East corner of the map.
- The red line going North from Crewe is the West Coast Main Line.
- The dotted red line was the originally proposed route of High Speed Two, between the West Coast Main Line and Manchester Airport.
Northern Powerhouse Rail is currently being planned. and will go West from Manchester Airport towards Warrington and Liverpool and will be built first.
A junction at High Legh will be built to link the West Coast Main Line to Northern Powerhouse Rail.
Services To North Wales
Why Not? With the cancellation of the Eastern Leg of High Speed Two, there must be a path available for North Wales.
Consider.
- The North Wales Main Line has been promised electrification.
- As Holyhead and Crewe is only 105.5 miles, it could even be in battery high speed train range in a few years.
- All times to and from Crewe are assumed to be as Avanti West Coast achieve now.
- As Crewe and Chester currently takes 23 minutes, London and Chester would take 1 hour and 19 minutes.
- As Crewe and Llandudno Junction currently takes 1 hour and 22 minutes, London and Llandudno Junction would take 2 hours and 18 minutes.
- As Crewe and Holyhead currently takes 2 hours and 7 minutes, London and Holyhead would take 3 hours and 3 minutes.
Could this open up a fast zero-carbon route between London and Dublin?
Services To Blackpool, Lancaster, Preston, Warrington And Wigan
Why Not, Blackpool? With the cancellation of the Eastern Leg of High Speed Two, there must be an extra path available, if it is needed.
Cpnsider.
- All routes are electrified.
- All times to and from Crewe are assumed to be as Avanti West Coast achieve now.
- As Crewe and Blackpool currently takes 1 hour and 20 minutes, London and Blackpool would take 2 hour and 16 minutes.
- As Crewe and Lancaster currently takes 60 minutes, London and Lancaster would take 1 hour and 56 minutes.
- As Crewe and Preston currently takes 40 minutes, London and Preston would take 1 hour and 36 minutes.
- As Crewe and Warrington Bank Quay currently takes 22 minutes, London and Warrington Bank Quay would take 1 hour and 18 minutes.
- As Crewe and Wigan North Western currently takes 33 minutes, London and Wigan North Western would take 1 hour and 29 minutes.
Note.
- Lancaster in under two hours will help the Eden Project Morecambe.
- For some areas of the North West, it might be more convenient to change at Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western or Preston.
Improvements to track and signalling could probably bring benefits.
Services To Carlisle And Central Scotland
Cpnsider.
- All routes are electrified.
- All times to and from Crewe are assumed to be as Avanti West Coast achieve now.
- As Crewe and Carlisle currently takes 1 hour and 55 minutes, London and Carlisle would take 2 hours and 51 minutes.
- As Crewe and Lockerbie currently takes 2 hours and 6 minutes, London and Lockerbie would take 3 hours and 1 minute.
- As Crewe and Motherwell currently takes 2 hours and 45 minutes, London and Motherwell would take 3 hours and 41 minutes.
- As Crewe and Edinburgh currently takes 3 hours and 9 minutes, London and Edinburgh would take 4 hours and 5 minutes.
- As Crewe and Glasgow Central currently takes 3 hours and 3 minutes, London and Glasgow Central would take 3 hours and 59 minutes.
Note.
- Just under four hours to Glasgow Central would please the Marketing Department.
- Selective splitting and joining could increase the number of destinations.
Improvements to track and signalling could probably bring benefits.
Services To Stirling
In ORR: Open Access Services Given Green Light Between London And Stirling, I wrote about Grand Union Trains’s new open access service to Stirling.
There has been good feedback on this service, so perhaps one of the spare paths on High Speed Two could be allocated to Open Access Operators, so that more of the country could have a high speed service to London Euston and Birmingham Curzon Street stations.
In the related post, I showed that London Euston and Stirling takes forty five minutes longer than a London Euston and Motherwell service.
This would mean that a London Euston and Stirling service via High Speed Two would take four hours and 26 minutes.
Services Between Birmingham Curzon Street and the North West
Under the plans for High Speed Two, the following services would have run North from Birmingham Curzon Street.
- One tph to Edinburgh or Motherwell and Glasgow via Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Lockerbie and Carstairs.
- Two tph to Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly.
But there are now spare paths South of Crewe, so Could a one tph Birmingham Curzon Street and Liverpool Lime Street service be squeezed in?
Could The Line Be Privately Financed?
I suspect that building the section between Handsacre and Crewe could be financed in perhaps a similar way, to the Chiltern improvements or the M6 Toll Road were financed.
- The Handsacre and Crewe section is just a simple stretch of rail, with a number of trains passing along it.
- The number of trains passing through, is likely to increase.
- Every train passing through would pay a track charge, just as they do to Network Rail.
- Those with lots of money to lend, like simple projects like wind farms or road tunnels, but think very hard about anything complicated like nuclear power stations or High Speed Two’s station at Euston.
Certainly, my late and very good friend, David, who dealt with the finance of some of London’s largest projects and was on the top table of London’s bankers, would have found a way. It might though have been unorthodox.
But then David was a rogue. But a rogue on the side of the angels.
Conclusion
I have come to these conclusions.
- Building the direct route between Handsacre and Crewe could be good value as it improves all routes that will pass through Crewe.
- Combining High Speed Two and Northern Powerhouse Rail could substantially cut the costs of both routes to the centre of Manchester.
- London and Crewe times should be 56 minutes.
- London and Liverpool Lime Street times could be under one hour and thirty minutes.
- London and Manchester Piccadilly times could start at one hour and thirty minutes and reduce when Northern Powerhouse Rail is built and linked to the West Coast Main Line.
- London and Holyhead could be just over three hours and could open up a fast zero-carbon route between London and Dublin.
- London and Lancaster in under two hours could help the Eden Project Morecambe.
It’s certainly not a bad plan and it should be looked at in more detail.
Could The High Speed Two Link Between Lichfield And Crewe Still Be Built?
The original plan for High Speed Two included two routes between Lichfield and Crewe.
This map clipped from the High Speed Two web site, shows the two routes.
Note.
- High Speed Two Phase 2a is shown in blue.
- High Speed Two Phase 2b is shown in orange.
- Crewe is in the North-West corner of the map, at the Southern end of the orange section.
- The junction at Lichfield is in the South-East corner of the map.
- The lighter blue route to the East, between the Lichfield junction and Crewe is the proposed new tracks of High Speed Two.
- The darker blue route to the West, between the Lichfield junction and Crewe is the existing route of the Trent Valley Line and the West Coast Main Line.
- The Trent Valley Line joins the West Coast Main Line at Stafford.
This second map clipped from the High Speed Two web site, shows the junction North of Lichfield, where High Speed Two connects to the Trent Valley Line through Stafford.
Note.
- High Speed Two runs North-South across the map.
- After the Junction by Fradley South, High Speed Two to Crewe and the North, is the branch to the East.
- The other branch connects to the Trent Valley Line at Handsacre junction.
- Trent Valley Line can be picked out North of Lichfield, where it passes through Lichfield Trent Valley station.
The Trent Valley Line is no Victorian double-track slow-speed bottleneck.
- The route between Rugby and Crewe is generally three or four tracks, with only one short stretch of double track, through Shugborough tunnel.
- The speed limit is generally 110 mph, with 90 mph at Shugborough.
- I wouldn’t be surprised to see Avanti West Coast’s Class 390 and Class 807 trains could be running at up to 140 mph on the route, if digital signalling were to be installed.
- This speed would probably be attained by High Speed Two trains.
London Euston and Stafford would only have under twenty miles of slower line and that could be 140 mph, so High Speed Two times on the route could be very fast.
Trains Between London And Stafford Before And After High Speed Two To Lichfield
Currently, Avanti West Coast trains take around one hour and seventeen minutes between London and Stafford.
The Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two gives these times between London and Stafford.
- Fastest time before High Speed Two – one hour and seventeen minutes.
- Time after Phase 2a of High Speed Two opens – fifty-five minutes.
Note.
- That is a time saving of twenty-two minutes.
- High Speed Two Trains will use the link between the junction at Lichfield and the Trent Valley Line.
- High Speed Two will also add eighteen trains per hour (tph) to the capacity between London and Lichfield.
This would seem to mean that any trains going to or through Stafford will be twenty-two minutes faster, if they use High Speed Two between London and Lichfield.
Trains Between London And Crewe Before And After High Speed Two To Crewe
Currently, Avanti West Coast trains take around one hour and thirty minutes between London and Crewe.
The Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two gives these times between London and Crewe.
- Fastest time before High Speed Two – one hour and thirty minutes.
- Time after Phase 2a of High Speed Two opens – fifty-six minutes.
Note.
- That is a time saving of thirty-four minutes.
- High Speed Two Trains will use the direct line between Lichfield and Crewe.
- High Speed Two will also add eighteen tph to the capacity between London and Crewe.
This would seem to mean that any trains going to or through Crewe will be thirty-four minutes faster, if they use High Speed Two between London and Crewe.
High Speed Two Between Lichfield And Crewe Only Saves An Extra Twelve Minutes
It appears that extending High Speed Two to Crewe only saves an extra twelve minutes.
But it will also have these benefits.
High Speed Two Full-Size trains will be able to run to Crewe.
High Speed Two will also add eighteen tph to the capacity between London and Crewe.
Savings From Scrapping High Speed Two Between Lichfield And Crewe
In addition to the savings of the scrapping of the line, I suspect that any modifications to Crewe station will be much simpler.
I wonder how much will be saved by not building High Speed Two to Crewe.
Could The High Speed Two Link Between Lichfield And Crewe Still Be Built?
This is the question I asked in the title.
We know the benefits of building High Speed Two and as time progresses we’ll know the costs and the disruption the building will cause with an increasing accuracy.
I also believe that even High Speed Two Lite will be a rip-roaring success, and other places will want their own High Speed Two service, which will need an increase in capacity North of Lichfield.
So there will come a point, when there is an overwhelming case to build the High Speed Two Link Between Lichfield and Crewe.
Because of that we must make sure, that any sales of land or properties, doesn’t compromise building the High Speed Two Link Between Lichfield and Crewe.
Conclusion
There will come a point, when the amount of traffic, will mean that it is worth building the High Speed Two Link Between Lichfield and Crewe.
My other conclusion is important and the route of the originally proposed High Speed Two Link Between Lichfield and Crewe, must not be compromised.
High Speed Two To Lancaster
There has been a lot of speculation about the Northern end of High Speed Two, so I might as well add sort out a few facts and add a bit of speculation of my own.
The Current Lancaster Service
I shall look at the 07:30 train on the 29th September 2023.
- It was a nine-car Class 390 train or Pendolino, which left on time.
- Euston and Lancaster are 230 miles apart.
- The train passed Crewe at 09:59
- The train arrived at Warrington Bank Quay at 09:14 and left at 09:15.
- The train arrived at Wigan North Western at 09:25 and left at 09:26.
- The train arrived at Preston at 09:39 and left at 09:41.
- The train arrived at Lancaster at 09:55 and left at 09:57.
- The journey took two hours and 25 minutes
- The average speed was 95.2 mph.
- There is at least one train per hour (tph).
Lancaster Will Get Its Own High Speed Two Service
This graphic shows High Speed Two services after Phase 2b is completed.
Note.
- Lancaster and Liverpool share a pair of High Speed Two Classic Compatible trains, that will split and join at Crewe.
- The Lancaster service will stop at Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston, to the North of Crewe.
The Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two gives these times for trains from London after Phase 2a opens to Crewe.
- Crewe – 56 minutes
- Warrington Bank Quay – One hour and 20 minutes
- Wigan North Western – One hour and 34 minutes
- Preston – One hour and 18 minutes
- Lancaster – Two hours and 3 minutes
- Oxenholme – One hour and 56 minutes
- Carlisle – Two hours and 23 minutes
Note.
- The Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Lancaster times will apply to the direct Lancaster service.
- The Preston and Carlisle times apply to the non-stop Scottish service.
- Oxenholme will be reached with a change from London.
- Currently, Pendolinos travel between Crewe and Lancaster in an hour or a few minutes less.
I feel the Lancaster time is suspect and a better time would be around one hour and 52-56 minutes.
140 Mph Running Between Crewe And Preston
Consider.
- London Euston and Crewe is 56 minutes
- One hour and 18 minutes to Preston infers a time of 22 minutes between Crewe and Preston.
- Crewe and Preston is 51 miles.
This implies an average speed of 139 mph.
As the West Coast Main Line was built for 140 mph, when digital signalling was installed, this would appear to be feasible, once the signalling is upgraded.
It may also mean, that faster times are possible in services to Warrington Bank Quay and Wigan North Western.
Crewe And Warrington Bank Quay
Consider.
- The distance is 24.1 miles
- HS2 will take 24 minutes with one acceleration and one deceleration, which probably take a maximum of 4 minutes in total.
- I explain the four minutes in High Speed Two To Crewe.
This gives an average speed of 72.3 mph.
Warrington Bank Quay And Wigan North Western
Consider.
- The distance is 11.7 miles
- HS2 will take 14 minutes with one acceleration and one deceleration, which probably take a maximum of 4 minutes in total.
This gives an average speed of 70.2 mph.
Wigan North Western And Lancaster
Consider.
- The distance is 36.1 miles
- HS2 will take 29 minutes with two accelerations and two decelerations, which probably take a maximum of 8 minutes in total.
- I will also allow a minute for the dwell time at Preston.
This gives an average speed of 108.3 mph.
Crewe And Lancaster
Consider.
- The distance is 72 miles
- HS2 will take 67 minutes with four accelerations and four decelerations, which probably take a maximum of 16 minutes in total.
- I will also allow a minute for the dwell times at Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan and Preston.
This gives an average speed of 90.6 mph.
I now feel happier about two hours and three minutes between London and Lancaster.
Conclusion
The West Coast Main Line needs upgrading to full in-cab digital signalling as soon as possible.
Once working it would give journey time savings for everybody travelling on the line.
See Also
Could High Speed Two Finish At Lichfield?
The Anonymous Widower 