High Speed Two To Liverpool
There has been a lot of speculation about the Northern end of High Speed Two, so I might as well add sort out a few facts and add a bit of speculation of my own.
The Current Liverpool Service
I shall look at the 08:43 train on the 18th September 2023.
- It was a nine-car Class 390 train or Pendolino, which left on time.
- Euston and Liverpool Lime Street are 193.7 miles apart.
- The train called at Milton Keynes Central, Crewe and Runcorn
- The train arrived at Crewe at 10:24 and left at 10:26.
- The train arrived at Runcorn at 10:43 and left at 10:44.
- The train arrived at Liverpool Lime Street at 11:04 on time.
- The journey took two hours and 21 minutes
- The average speed was 82.4 mph.
- The Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street section is 39.7 miles and the train is scheduled to take forty minutes.
- The average speed between Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street is almost exactly 60 mph.
- The slower average speed is because the train is slowing for a gradual stop in Liverpool and the only fast section is the 110 mph section between Crewe and Weaver Junction, where the Liverpool Branch leaves the West Coast Main Line.
- There is one train per hour (tph).
There are probably only limited ways that time can be saved between Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street.
- The West Coast Main Line between Crewe and Weaver Junction takes twelve minutes and has an operating speed of 110 mph, so saving a few minutes might be possible, by upgrading the speed on this line with digital signalling to allow 140 mph running.
- It might be possible to save a couple of minutes at the Runcorn stop by using the superior performance of the new Class 807 or High Speed Two trains.
- The slowing down into and accelerating out of Liverpool might be improved by digital signalling and trains with better performance.
It should be noted that Liverpool Lime Street station was recently remodelled to improve operation of the station and the tracks connecting it to Runcorn.
I would be fairly sure that Network Rail and Avanti West Coast have got Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street times to a minimum. As this route will become part of High Speed Two, I suspect that Network Rail/Avanti have done extensive computer simulations of the route, to make sure they get it as quick and efficient as possible.
The New Class 807 Trains
The Class 807 trains, which enter service this year or early next, are the Lotuses in Hitachi’s AT 300 family of high speed trains.
- They are electric only and have no heavy diesel engines or traction batteries.
- They don’t even have emergency batteries for when the catenary fails.
- They have a redesigned nose. Is it more aerodynamic?
- As with all the other Hitachi high speed trains, they are capable of 125 mph, or 140 mph if the signalling permits.
These trains will undoubtedly have faster acceleration and deceleration and could probably knock minutes off the timings at all the stops.
A Second Hourly Train To Liverpool
Tucked away beside the Grand Union Sets Out Stirling Ambitions article in the December 2022 Edition of Modern Railways is a report on Avanti West Coast’s application for a second service between Euston and Liverpool.
This is said.
Avanti West Coast has applied for access rights for its second hourly Euston to Liverpool service, starting from December 2023, although a phased introduction of the new service is likely. This would make use of Avanti’s new fleet of 10×7-car Class 807 Hitachi EMUs, which are expected to enter service from Autumn 2023. The ‘807s’ would be deployed on the current hourly Liverpool service, on which a call at Liverpool South Parkway would be added. (provision is made for this in the December 2022 timetable.).
Pendolinos would then operate the second service each hour, calling at Lichfield Trent Valley and Tamworth.
A linespeed project is in progress to raise the permissible speed for non-tilting trains on the West Coast Main Line, and Avanti’s new Hitachi trains will take advantage of this.
Note.
- The current Liverpool service stops at Milton Keynes Central, Crewe and Runcorn.
- Liverpool South Parkway station is too short for the longest Pendolinos or Class 390/1 trains.
- When the second service is implemented will it stop at Milton Keynes Central, Crewe, Runcorn and Liverpool South Parkway?
- Will the Pendolinos only stop at Lichfield Trent Valley and Tamworth?
Will Avanti West Coast use the trains to take advantage of their strengths?
- The new lighter Class 807 trains will use their superior acceleration and deceleration to execute fast stops at more stations.
- The shorter Class 807 trains will call at Liverpool South Parkway.
- The current Pendolinos will use their tilt to run as fast as possible between London Euston and Liverpool.
I also suspect that Avanti West Coast will adjust the stopping pattern to attract passengers. I read somewhere, that a stop at Nuneaton to connect to Leicester, Peterborough, Cambridge and Stansted Airport, was a possibility.
More Details Of A Second Hourly Train To Liverpool – 30th September 2023.
Real Time Trains is now showing the details of the second service between London Euston and Liverpool.
These are the future timings of the 09:13 train from Liverpool.
- Liverpool – Leave at 09:13
- Runcorn – Arrive at 09:28 and leave at 09:29½
- Crewe – Arrive at 09:49 and leave at 09:56
- Stafford – Arrive at 10:14½ and leave at 10:16½
- Lichfield Trent Valley – Arrive at 10:29½ and leave at 10:31½
- Tamworth – Arrive at 10:36½ and leave at 10:38½
- Nuneaton – Arrive at 10:49 and leave at 10:51
- Milton Keynes Central – Arrive at 11:21 and leave at 11:23
- Euston – Arrive at 11.59
Note.
- This service has not been activated yet.
- It is pathed for a Class 80x train.
- There are seven stops.
- It will take two hours and 46 minutes.
- Liverpool and Crewe will take 36 minutes.
- There are two other inactivated services like this running through Birmingham and Northampton.
Could these services have been timetabled to test connectivity?
High Speed Two Classic Compatible Trains
These High Speed Two Classic Compatible trains are to be built for High Speed Two.
- They will be able to run on both High Speed Two and current high speed lines like the East Coast Main Line and the West Coast Main Line.
- They will have an operating speed of 205 mph on High Speed Two.
- They will be able to operate at appropriate speeds on existing high speed lines. Typically, that is 125 mph, but with full digital signalling that is 140 mph.
- They are two hundred metres long and are sixty metres shorter than an eleven-car Pendolino.
- They are being built by a Hitachi-Alstom joint venture.
This document on the Government web site is the Train Technical Specification for High Speed Two Classic-Compatible Trains.
Introducing The High Speed Two Classic Compatible Trains Into Service
Consider.
- London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street services can be run by eleven-car Pendolinos.
- It looks like after the introduction of the second service between London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street is introduced, it will be run by Pendolinos and it could be a two-stop service.
- The High Speed Two Classic Compatible trains should be able to run any service currently run by an eleven-car Pendolino.
So will Avanti West Coast use this second hourly London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street service to introduce the new High Speed Two Classic Compatible trains into public service?
- It would make sure the trains and existing track and signals were fully debugged.
- It would inform the public that High Speed Two is on its way.
- It would be good marketing for High Speed Two.
- They might shave a few minutes off journey times.
- It could use all the existing infrastructure.
- It will provide work for Alstom in Derby.
I feel Avanti West Coast just might!
London Euston And Liverpool Lime Street Before Phase 2a Of High Speed Two Opens
According to the Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two, these are the fastest timings.
- London Euston and Crewe – One hour and 30 minutes
- London Euston and Runcorn – One hour and 53 minutes
- London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street – Two hours and 3 minutes
Currently, the fastest London and Liverpool Lime Street trains take two hours and 21 minutes, so are the Class 807 trains going to be eighteen minutes faster?
From these figures and the times of the 0843, I can deduce these journey times.
- Currently, Crewe and Runcorn takes 17 minutes and the Class 807 train will take 23 minutes
- Currently, Runcorn and Liverpool Lime Street takes 20 minutes and the Class 807 train will take 10 minutes
- Currently, Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street takes 38 minutes and the Class 807 train will take 33 minutes
It looks like there may be slight problems with Wikipedia’s figures. But they were published before Avanti West Coast had run a Class 807 train between Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street. I think we’ll have to wait and see what turns up on Saturday, the 9th of December 2023, when the timetables change.
But I do feel now that the Class 807 trains will achieve London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street in two hours and three minutes.
London Euston And Liverpool Lime Street After Phase 2a Of High Speed Two Opens
According to the Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two, these are the timings.
- London Euston and Crewe – 56 minutes
- London Euston and Runcorn – One hour and 14 minutes
- London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street – One hour and 32 minutes
From these figures and the times of the 0843, I can deduce these journey times.
- Currently, Crewe and Runcorn takes 17 minutes and High Speed Two will take 18 minutes
- Currently, Runcorn and Liverpool Lime Street takes 20 minutes and High Speed Two will take 18 minutes
- Currently, Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street takes 38 minutes and High Speed Two will take 36 minutes
There doesn’t seem to be much of a saving between today’s Pendolino and High Speed Two between Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street.
Could it be that the work to improve Liverpool Lime Street station and its approaches a few years ago sorted out a lot of problems and Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street is now almost to the standard needed for High Speed Two?
If savings are made anywhere by High Speed Two, it could be between Runcorn and Liverpool Lime Street.
Looking at the operating speeds on OpenRailwayMap, there appears to be a 30 mph section of track for a couple of miles out of Liverpool Lime Street, which includes a sharp curve.
This Google Map shows the approaches to Lime Street station.
Note.
- The tracks across the top of the map are the main electrified Liverpool and Manchester tracks.
- The building in the middle is Alstom Traincare’s Liverpool Depot.
- The line to Runcorn enters the map in the South-East corner and curves around the depot to join the tracks into Lime Street station.
- The operating speed gradually reduces from 30 mph on this map to less than 15 mph in Lime Street station.
Perhaps, this 30 mph section is to be improved to gain the couple of minutes.
I also think, that savings could be possible at Runcorn station.
If when the second service starts, the Pendolinos don’t stop at Runcorn, that would save a few minutes.
The Class 807 and the High Speed Two Classic Compatible trains with their superior acceleration and deceleration could save a couple of minutes in the stop at Runcorn.
I very much feel that as the Pendolinos manage to achieve Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street in 38 minutes, that Pendolinos on the second service, Class 807 and the High Speed Two Classic Compatible trains, will all manage 36 minutes or less on the route.
London Euston And Liverpool Lime Street After Phase 2b Of High Speed Two Opens
There will be no changes as the full-size High Speed Two trains are not planned to run into Liverpool Lime Street.
Conclusion
It looks to me, that the Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street leg of High Speed Two is more or less complete.
Times between London and Liverpool will be as follows.
- Before High Speed Two Phase 2a – 2 hours and 3 minutes
- After High Speed Two Phase 2a – 1 hour and 32 minutes
- After High Speed Two Phase 2b – 1 hour and 32 minutes
I believe that for many this will be fast enough, especially as it’s nearly complete.
See Also
Could High Speed Two Finish At Lichfield?
The Crystal Palace Bus Charger – 19th September 2023
I went to see the new charger at Crystal Palace for the new Irizar ie trams that will be introduced on route 358.
I took these pictures.
Note.
- It is not finished yet or someone has nicked the pantograph.
- Irizar seem to make their own chargers.
- It looks a well-designed installation.
This Spanish video shows the bus inside and outside.
I have a few thoughts.
The Specification Of The Bus
This document on the Irizar web site is the specification of the ie trams, that London are buying.
Passenger Capacity
According to the specification, these twelve metre long buses have a capacity of 97-99 passengers, with 21-28 seated, depending on layout.
Is that a bit tight? Especially, if people are carrying large cases.
Climbing Anerley Hill
I wonder how these buses will manage to climb Anerley Hill.
- This page on a cycling blog, rates the hill as the fourth stiffest in London.
- A typical Wrightbus or AlexanderDennis single-decker diesel bus has a kerb weight of 13-14 tonnes.
- The ie tram gives maximum front and rear axle loadings which total 21.2 tonnes. But that includes the passengers, which at 60 Kg each account for a lot of the difference in weight with the diesel buses.
- Anerley Hill has a rise of upwards of 30 metres.
Using Omni’s Potential Energy Calculator gives a figure of less than 2 KWh of energy needed to get up the hill.
That should be possible!
News Of The Bus
But there has been very little news on the Internet of these buses and their chargers, with the last story dated a year ago. Given Sadiq Khan’s love of publicity, does that mean anything?
Conclusion
It seems that Irizar have pulled out all the stops in the design of this bus.
Do Thunderstorms Cause Strokes?
On Saturday evening, we had a severe thunderstorm in North London.
All day long, I’d been drinking heavily, but as it was only tea and low-alcohol Adnams Ghost Ship 0.5 %, the worst that could happen is an accident on an extra visit to the toilet.
I came to the conclusion though, that most of the fluids was leaving my body through my skin.
Does this lower my INR? I do know that in hot and humid weather, I have difficulty raising it. In the last week or so, it has been hovering around 2.2, but yesterday, it was a very safe 2.7.
But as I test regularly, this may well help to protect me from another stroke.
Typing “Thunderstorms and Strokes” into Google, I found this paper on the National Library of Medicine, which is entitled Relationship Between Weather Conditions And Admissions For Ischemic Stroke And Subarachnoid Hemorrhage.
It is an interesting read.
This was the aim of the study.
To assess impacts of different weather conditions on hospitalizations of patients with ischemic strokes and subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAH) in South Florida.
And this was the conclusion.
Higher number of ischemic stroke and SAH cases can be expected with the daily lowest and highest air pressure, highest air temperature. Presence of hurricanes or tropical storms increased the risk of ischemic stroke but not the SAH. These findings can help to develop preventive health plans for cerebrovascular diseases.
From my own observations on INR for nearly ten years, I certainly believe that INR moves up and down with the weather because of the laws of physics.
Next time a severe thunderstorm is forecast, I will track my INR throughout the day.
Is Sizewell C Needed?
I am generally pro-nuclear, but I am not sure if building a large nuke at Sizewell is the right action.
Consider.
- East Anglia has 3114 MW of offshore wind in operation.
- East Anglia has 6772 MW of offshore wind under construction, with Contracts for Difference or proposed.
- Vattenfall are considering abandoning development of their large wind farms off the Norfolk coast, which are proposed to have a capacity of 3196 MW.
- If the two Vattenfall wind farms don’t get built, it is likely that East Anglia will have around 6700 MW of offshore wind capacity.
- Sizewell C has a proposed nameplate capacity of 3260 MW. Some might argue, that to back up East Anglia’s offshore wind power, it needs to be larger!
- Norfolk and Suffolk no large electricity users, so are Vattenfall finding they have a product no one wants to buy.
- National Grid is developing four interconnectors to bring power from Scotland to the Eastern side of England, which will back up wind power in the East with the massive Scottish pumped storage, that is being developed.
- National Grid and their Dutch equivalent; TenneT are developing LionLink to connect the UK and the Netherlands to clusters of wind farms between our countries in the North Sea.
- Kent and East Anglia have several gas and electric interconnectors to Europe.
- Sizewell is well-connected to England’s grid.
These are my thoughts.
Energy Storage At Sizewell
Consider.
- Sizewell is well connected to the grid.
- It has the sea on one side.
- It could easily be connected to the large offshore wind farms, thirty miles out to sea.
If large energy storage could be built on the Sizewell site or perhaps under the sea, then this energy could be recovered and used in times of low wind.
Perhaps the technology of the STORE Consortium, which I discussed in UK Cleantech Consortium Awarded Funding For Energy Storage Technology Integrated With Floating Wind, could be used.
In this system, energy is stored in 3D-printed concrete hemispheres under the sea.
A Small Nuclear Reactor Cluster At Sizewell
Rolls-Royce are proposing that their small modular reactors will have a capacity of 470 MW.
Perhaps a cluster of seven small modular reactors at Sizewell, with a building schedule matched to the need to back up wind farms would be better and easier to finance.
I also feel a cluster of SMRs would have less risk and would be less likely to be delayed.
Where Is Generating Capacity Needed In The UK?
These areas already have large amounts of offshore wind in operation or proposed to be built before 2030.
- Celtic Sea
- North Wales
- Liverpool Bay
- Cumbria
- Scotland
- Scotland’s Offshore Islands
- North East England
- Humberside
- Lincolnshire
- East Anglia
- Thames Estuary
- Kent
- Sussex
Amongst the back up for these wind farms, there are only two modern nuclear stations; Sizewell B and the still-to-open Hinckley Point C.
If you look at a map of England and its power generation, there is a tremendous gap of capacity South of a line between Hinckley Point and Brighton, with little or no offshore wind and no nuclear.
There is probably a need for a large nuke near Weymouth.
Alternatively, perhaps several SMRs could be built underneath places like Salisbury Plain, Dartmoor and Exmoor!
Conclusion
We probably need the nuclear electricity from another Hinckley Point C-sized nuclear power station, so that we have adequate back-up for offshore wind.
But I am not sure that Sizewell is the right place to build it.
Iarnród Éireann And Latvia’s DIGAS To Trial Europe’s First Retrofitted Hydrogen Freight Locomotive
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from Irish Rail.
This is the sub-heading.
Cleaner, cheaper and practical initiative towards decarbonisation goals
These are the first three sections.
Cleaner
Iarnród Éireann Irish Rail is providing a locomotive and will test a retrofitted hydrogen locomotive using a cleaner burning renewable fuel.
Cheaper
DIGAS will provide a cost-effective way how to introduce a hydrogen in the fleet of existing diesel locomotives by retrofitting diesel locomotives with a specialised internal combustion engine (ICE) hydrogen system.
Practical
The collaboration will demonstrate a practical path towards complete decarbonisation of the diesel locomotive fleet.
Note.
- The eighteen 071 Class locomotives were built in Canada by General Motors.
- Some date from as early as 1976.
- In the UK, there is a similar project to convert Class 66 locomotives to dual fuel, which I wrote about in Clean Air Power Adds Hydrogen To Class 66 Fuel Mix.
It does look that the technology is being developed to convert freight locomotives to hydrogen.
What Percentage Of Government Finance Is Fuel Duties?
I typed the title of this post into Google.
Google found this page from the Office of Budget Responsibility.
This was the first paragraph.
Fuel duties are levied on purchases of petrol, diesel and a variety of other fuels. They represent a significant source of revenue for government. In 2023-24, we expect fuel duties to raise £24.3 billion. That would represent 2.3 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to £867 per household and 0.9 per cent of national income.
I don’t drive after a stroke ruined my eyesight, so I pay nothing directly.
But when everybody is in electric vehicles, how is the £24.3 billion hole in the government’s finances caused by no-one paying duty on petrol and diesel to be filled?
I would assume that everyone will have a black box in their vehicle and they’ll pay according to the miles they drive, their speed, the congestion and the vehicle type.
And of course if a driver exceeds the speed limit, they’ll be automatically sent a ticket.
I can understand why Labour politicians like Mark Drakeford and Sadiq Khan are so keen on 20 mph limits.
Has that nice Rachel Reeves told them what she has planned for motorists?
Their eyes must be rolling like cash registers.
Heritage Buses On The 38 Bus Route
Today, was one of those days, when the 38 bus was augmented by a few heritage buses.
Everybody was swapping stories of buses and their childhoods.
Ricardo Develops Advanced Ranger HEX 6×6 Conversion With Hybrid Electric Drivetrain
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from Ricardo.
This is the sub-heading.
The new vehicle has been conceived to help improve the sustainability of future defence mobility while retaining the highest performance demanded by the toughest environments
This picture is from the press release.
My first thought is that it looks the ultimate technical.
These two paragraphs introduce the vehicle.
Ricardo, a global strategic, environmental, and engineering consulting company, has developed the Ranger HEX, a 6×6 vehicle conversion designed to offer a significant improvement in payload of up to 3,800kg over the harshest of terrains. It comes with a hybrid drivetrain to maintain performance and improve fuel consumption.
This new conversion benefits from Ricardo’s expertise and experience in creating high quality, cost effective special vehicles for defence, security and utility applications. The vehicle will benefit from enhanced levels of capability, robustness and availability.
These three paragraphs describe the design.
The HEX solution differs from conventional conversions as it has been conceived as an overlay bolt-on system that does not require any alteration of the Ford Ranger base vehicle, which is Europe’s number one commercial pick-up platform. This ensures that the base vehicle retains all the robustness and quality of the standard vehicle and allows the system to be removed and re-installed on a different vehicle.
An electric rear drive system has been adopted that uses a production Ford drive unit to provide up to an additional 210kW of power, over and above the class leading 186kW of power from the existing 3.0L V6 diesel engine. The De Dion rear suspension design is not only weight efficient and robust but also provides better wheel control for improved traction and ride. In addition, the De Dion arrangement decouples the suspension and drive systems to allow a range of drive units to be used or deleted for a cost-effective 6×4 variant with maximum payload using an undriven ‘lazy’ axle.
The electric drive is designed as a self-contained through-the-road hybrid system. Braking energy is harvested under deceleration to charge the battery pack. This energy is then used to provide electric torque under acceleration to mitigate the usual drop in performance whist carrying a high payload. A selection of battery capacities are available, depending on customer requirements. All high voltage components are contained within a single integrated enclosure for safety and ease of maintenance and repair.
Note.
- The conversion would appear to bolt on to the standard Ford Ranger base vehicle.
- The vehicle has regenerative braking.
- It has a payload of 3.8 tonnes.
- It appears to have a very sophisticated rear suspension.
- Judging by the colour and the mention of the word defence in the article, I suspect this vehicle has been initially designed for a military application.
- Over 300,000 Rangers were sold worldwide in 2021.
- In the UK, it looks like a Ford Ranger will cost around £30,000 excluding VAT.
In addition I’ve read in this article on Autoweek that, the conversion itself has been designed as an overlay bolt-on modification that requires no alterations to the base vehicle, even preserving its existing warranty.
I have my thoughts.
Applications
The press release talks about high quality, cost effective special vehicles for defence, security and utility applications.
Use your imagination!
Perhaps.
- It is going to be used as the ultimate technical by the Ukrainians.
- A missile manufacturer has a system, that weighs around 3.5 tonnes and needs a launch vehicle.
- The RNLI needs an affordable vehicle to launch lifeboats from the beach.
- It is going to be used as rough terrain ambulance.
- It would make an excellent towing vehicle.
With all the problems in Morocco and Libya at the moment, it has been launched at the right time.
Zero-Carbon Operation
I believe that a zero-carbon version is essential. Especially, as the sub-heading mentions sustainable defence mobility.
The easiest way to achieve this would be to run on HVO or some form of biodiesel.
I suspect between them Ford and Ricardo have enough knowledge to create a hydrogen powered version.
Are There Autonomous Ford Rangers?
Google says, “Yes!”
This article on foresttech is entitled Ford Ranger Goes Fully-Autonomous, where this is said.
An Australian mining group has advanced the future of mobility (in mining at least) with the deployment of a fleet of fully-autonomous Ford Rangers at one of its mines.
Fortescue Metals Group has retrofitted four Rangers at its Christmas Creek mine in Western Australia with autonomous systems created by the company’s Technology and Automation team, to remove the need for fitters to make around 12,000 28-kilometre round trips each year to collect equipment and parts.
Of course, it’s not quite as ground-breaking as it sounds: mining operations don’t need to deal with road rules, pedestrians or many other vehicles, which hugely complicate the matter. Nevertheless, it’s still impressive.
Three applications suggest themselves.
- Delivering supplies in a disaster zone, after an earthquake, flooding,, landslide or volcanic eruption.
- Delivering supplies, including ammunition on a battlefield.
- Moving supplies along a long linear construction site, like a new railway or road.
Note.
In all three applications, six-wheel drive will be important, if ground conditions are bad.
- Could Fortescue Metals Group be behind this project?
- Disasters seem to be getting more common.
- Autonomous battlefield delivery must be safer for personnel.
I suspect there will be agricultural applications of an autonomous vehicle.
Is There An ERTMS-based Solution To The Digswell Viaduct?
Consider.
- Airliners have been flown automatically and safely from airport to airport for perhaps four decades.
- The Victoria Line has been running automatically and safely at over twenty tph for five decades.
- I worked with engineers developing a high-frequency sequence control system for a complicated chemical plant in 1970.
We also can’t deny that computers are getting better and more capable.
For these reasons, I believe there could be an ERTMS-based solution to the problem of the Digswell Viaduct, which could be something like this.
- All trains running on the two track section over the Digswell Viaduct and through Welwyn North station would be under computer control between Welwyn Garden City and Knebworth stations.
- Fast trains would be slowed as appropriate to create spaces to allow the slow trains to pass through the section.
- The driver would be monitoring the computer control, just as they do on the Victoria Line.
Much more complicated automated systems have been created in various applications.
The nearest rail application in the UK, is probably the application of digital signalling to London Underground’s Circle, District, Hammersmith & City and Metropolitan Lines.
This is known at the Four Lines Modernisation and it will be completed by 2023 and increase capacity by up to twenty-seven percent.
I don’t think it unreasonable to see the following numbers of services running over the Digswell Viaduct by 2030 in both directions in every hour.
- Sixteen fast trains
- Four slow trains
That is one train every three minutes.
Currently, it appears to be about ten fast and two slow.
As someone, who doesn’t like to be on a platform, when a fast train goes through, I believe that some form of advanced safety measures should be installed at Welwyn North station.
Conclusion
It will surely be more affordable to use clever signalling and train sequencing, than rebuilding the viaduct with four tracks.
The Anonymous Widower 