National Grid’s North Sea Link Strengthens Electricity Supply And Repays Its Carbon Cost In Just Six Months
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from National Grid.
These are three bullet points from the press release.
- World’s longest subsea electricity cable has been in operation since Oct 2021.
- 5.7 terawatt (TWh) hours of clean power have been shared between GB and Norway, strengthening security of supply for consumers in both countries.
- It has saved 800,000 tonnes of carbon in the first year, paying off its carbon cost after only six months of operation.
This must surely be considered a good start.
These two paragraphs describe the operation in the first year.
During its first year of operation, the link has imported 4.6 TWh of clean electricity – enough to power 1.5 million British homes for a year.
North Sea Link has also exported 1.1 TWh to Norway, demonstrating the vital role that interconnectors play in strengthening energy security and maximising the benefits of clean energy sources for consumers across the UK and Europe.
In The Monster In The Mountains That Could Save Europe’s Winter, I describe what makes the North Sea Link so important.
It gives the UK access to the Norwegian Bank Of Electricity or Ulla-Førre, which is a complex of five hydroelectric power stations and a massive lake in the Norwegian mountains to the East of Stavanger.
- The power stations have a total generating capacity of 2.1 GW.
- Lake Blåsjø is able to hold enough water to generate 7800 GWh of electricity.
- Ulla-Førre can also supply electricity to Germany, through the 1.4 GW NordLink.
If Ulla-Førre has a problem, it is that if Norwegian weather is dry, the filling of Lake Blåsjø could be difficult, which is where the interconnector comes into its own, as excess UK wind power or the 1,185 MW Hartlepool nuclear power station, can be used to send electricity to Norway for storage.
In An Update To Will We Run Out Of Power This Winter?, I predicted we will add the following capacity to our renewable generation in the next three years.
- 2023 – 2925 MW
- 3024 – 3726 MW
- 2025 – 6476 MW
This is a total of 13,127 MW.
As a Control Engineer, I can see the following happening.
- Several of the UK’s gas-fired power stations will be mothballed.
- Some of the UK’s gas-fired power stations will be fitted with advanced control systems so they can supply more precise amounts of electricity.
- Some UK electricity is stored in Ulla-Førre for onward sale to Germany.
- Some UK electricity is stored in Ulla-Førre for withdrawal back to the UK, when needed.
One of Ulla-Førre’s main tasks could be to ensure that no UK electricity is wasted.
Conclusion
With all these wind generated electricity and electricity transfers, the Crown Estate, National Grid and the Treasury should be coining it.
The Germans are already building the 1.4 GW NeuConnect between the Isle of Grain and Wilhelmshaven to import more electricity.
But I do believe that another interconnector will be needed.
CIP Picks Stiesdal Floater For 100MW Scottish Offshore Wind Farm
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Offshore Engineering.
These two paragraphs introduce the project.
Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) has selected Stiesdal Offshore’s TetraSub floating foundation structure for the 100MW Pentland Floating Offshore Wind Farm project, to be located off the coast of Dounreay, Caithness, Scotland.
The technology has been said to offer a lightweight and cost-effective floating solution, based on factory-made modules which are then assembled domestically in port to form a complete foundation.
Note.
- The TetraSub seems to have been designed for ease of manufacture.
- One if the aims appears to be to build a strong local supply chain.
- The TetraSub was designed with the help of Edinburgh University.
- The TetraSpar Demonstrator is in operation off the coast of Norway.
- This page on Mission Innovation describes the TetraSpar in detail.
- The TetraSpar foundation, owned by Shell, TEPCO RP, RWE, and Stiesdal.
- It can be deployed in water with a depth of up to 200 metres.
- Currently, they carry a 3.6 MW turbine.
- At that size, they’d need 27 or 28 turbines to create a 100 MW wind farm.
The home page of the Pentland Offshore Wind Farm gives more details.
This article on offshoreWIND.biz is entitled CIP And Hexicon To Halve Pentland Floating Wind Project Area.
- The project area has been halved.
- The number of turbines has been reduced from ten to seven.
- Compact turbines will be used.
- The project will be built in two phases, one turbine in 2025 and six in 2026.
- Effectively, the first turbine will help to fund the second phase, which eases cash flow.
The changes show how the wind farm has changed during development due to local pressures and improved technology.
Conclusion
It does seem that the competition is growing in the field of floating wind turbines.
Given the quality of the research and backing for these floats and the fact they now have an order, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this technology be a success.
Carbon-Neutral Concrete Prototype Wins €100k Architecture Prize For UK Scientists
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the Architect’s Journal.
Under a picture of two white-coated scientists with their protective boots on concrete samples, the story and their invention is outlined.
A pair of PhD students at Imperial College London have won a global architecture prize for devising a groundbreaking method of creating carbon-neutral concrete
Material scientists Sam Draper and Barney Shanks landed the €100,000 2022 Obel Award with their ‘simple way’ to capture carbon from industrial production processes and create an end product that can eliminate the CO₂ footprint of concrete.
The prototype technology, dubbed Seratech, takes industrial CO₂ emissions directly from flues and produces a carbon-negative cement replacement material (silica). According to the scientists, when this is used in combination with Portland cement, the carbon capture associated with producing the silica means the concrete products can be zero carbon.
One of the products, we will need in the world is concrete and if we can make it in a carbon-neutral manner, then that will surely reduce worldwide carbon emissions.
The Technology Explained
This page on the Seratech website is entitled Our Technology.
It gives this description of the technology.
Seratech has developed a process that consumes olivine and waste CO₂ from flue gases and produces two products which both have significant value in construction.
Silica is produced which can be used as a supplementary cementitious material (SCM) in concrete meaning the amount of Portland cement in the concrete can be reduced by up to 40%. As the silica comes from a process that captures CO₂ it is “carbon negative” and the concrete can become carbon neutral.
Magnesium carbonate is produced that can be used to make a range of zero carbon construction materials and consumer products, including alternatives to building blocks and plasterboard.
The aim is for humanity to be able to continue building robust cities and infrastructure, but without the climate cost of traditional cement mixes and with the Seratech technology this goal is achievable!
Note that olivine in Europe is generally mined in Norway.
Replacement Of Steel By Concrete
Could we also replace steel in some applications with concrete?
In UK Cleantech Consortium Awarded Funding For Energy Storage Technology Integrated With Floating Wind, I talked about some of ground-breaking methods used by a company called RCAM Technologies to create infrastructure using 3D printing of concrete.
If Imperial’s concrete, which is called Seratech can be 3D printed, I can see lots of applications for the technology.
So you could kill two sources of large carbon emissions with one technology.
Conclusion
I have said on this blog before, that we will have to keep or even build more gas-fired power stations, as they can be an efficient source of pure carbon dioxide, that will be needed as a feedstock to create an increasing number of agricultural and building products.
Will Norwegian Pumped Storage Hydro Help Us Through The Winter?
In UK To Norway Sub-Sea Green Power Cable Operational, I discussed the North Sea Link interconnector to Norway.
The North Sea Link is no ordinary interconnector, as it is a lot more than a 1.4 GW cable linking the electricity grids of the UK and Norway.
- At the UK end, there is an increasing amount of wind power. The UK has added 3.5 GW in 2022.
- At the Norway end, there is the 2.1 GW Ulla-Førre hydropower complex.
- The water to generate electricity at Ulla-Førre comes from the artificial Lake Blåsjø, which contains enough water to generate 7.8 TWh of electricity.
- The storage capacity at Ulla-Førre is 857 times greater than that at the UK’s largest pumped storage hydroelectric power station at Dinorwig in North Wales.
- The power complex consists of five power stations and some can also be used as a pump powered by UK electricity to fill Lake Blåsjø with water.
Effectively, the North Sea Link, the Ulla-Førre power complex and Lake Blåsjø are a giant pumped storage hydro battery, that can either be filled by Norwegian precipitation and water flows or by using surplus UK electricity, through the North Sea Link, which opened a year ago.
If the Norwegian precipitation goes on strike, the only way to fill Lake Blåsjø is to use surplus UK power, which I suspect will be British wind and nuclear in the middle of the night!
But then I thought we will be short of electricity this winter.
- I suspect we will be at times, but then at others there will be a surplus.
- So the surplus will be pumped to Norway to top up the reservoir at Lake Blåsjø.
- When we are short of electricity, the Norwegians will turn water back into electricity and send it back through the North Sea Link.
It will be more sophisticated than that, but basically, I believe it provides us with the electricity we need, at the times, when we need it.
I wouldn’t be surprised to be told, that we’ve been squirreling away overnight wind energy to Norway over the last few months.
I have written more about Ulla-Førre in The Monster In The Mountains That Could Save Europe’s Winter.
It includes a video about the building of the complex.
North Seas Countries Commit To 260 GW Of Offshore Wind By 2050
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Renewables Now.
This is the first two paragraphs.
The nine member countries of the North Seas Energy Cooperation (NSEC) on Monday committed to at least 260 GW of offshore wind energy by 2050.
The NSEC aims to advance offshore renewables in the North Seas, including the Irish and Celtic Seas, and groups Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the European Commission.
Note.
Intermediate targets are 76 GW by 2030 and 193 GW by 2040.
The UK has a target of 50 GW by 2030, of which 5 GW will be floating offshore wind.
The UK is not mentioned, but has joint projects with the Danes, Germans, Irish, Norwegians, Spanish and Swedes.
There is nothing about energy storage or hydrogen!
On the figures given, I think we’re holding our own. But then we’ve got more sea than anybody else.
Can We Move The Equilibrium Point Of The Energy Market?
Equilibrium In Systems
As a Control Engineer, I believe that most systems eventually end up in a state of equilibrium.
How many football batches have you watched between two evenly-matched teams that have ended, where the statistics are even and the match has ended in a nil-nil draw or a win by one goal.
Now suppose one manager makes an inspired substitution, one important player gets injured or one player gets sent off.
One team will have an advantage, the statistics will no longer be even and one team will probably win.
The equilibrium point will have been shifted.
Zopa’s Stable Peer-to-Peer Lending System
I used Zopa’s peer-to-peer lending system for several years and found it a very stable system, that over the years paid a steady return of between four and five percent before tax.
I even developed a method to maximise my savings income, which I wrote about in The Concept Of Hybrid Banking.
It was a sad day for me, when Zopa closed its ground-breaking peer-to-peer lending system.
As a Control Engineer, I believe that Zopa’s strength was a well-written computerised algorithm, that matched lenders and borrowers and spread the risk.
- There was no bias in the system, introduced by personal prejudices.
- The algorithm was agnostic and judged all borrowers on their profiles and credit ratings alone.
- Money was allocated under fair rules for borrowers.
- I never borrowed from Zopa, but from my experience of owning half of a finance company, their terms were the most customer-friendly I’ve ever seen.
Someone will go back to the basics of peer-to-peer lending and it can’t be soon enough for both savers and borrowers.
Zopa In Troubled Times
Over the years that I invested in Zopa, my returns stayed very much the same, as the algorithm seemed to be able to maintain sufficient difference between lenders’ returns and borrowers’ rates. I also suspect the dynamics of savvy lenders and borrowers helped to stabilise both the system and the difference between rates.
It even worked through the Banking Crisis of 2008 and other mini-hiccups along the way.
My Conclusion About Zopa
As someone, who knows computing well, I would rate Zopa, one of the best computer systems, I’ve ever seen.
But it showed how a large transactional system can work well.
One of the keys to its success and smooth operation was that the computer was totally in control and it took all transaction decisions without direct human intervention.
The Energy Market
The energy market is a network of energy providers and users.
It is controlled by complicated rules and it has settled into an equilibrium, which involves.
- Importation of energy, which I suspect is not at a low price
- Some high priced energy generators, based on gas, which has a high-price, due to Putin’s war.
- Waste of wind energy due to lack of energy storage.
- The intermittency of renewable sources.
- A lack of gas storage, means that we probably get the wrong end of fluctuations in the gas price.
This results in a high price to consumers.
Can We Move The Equilibrium Point Of The Energy Market?
And we also need to move it quickly to a more favourable place, which benefits everybody!
As a Control Engineer, I believe that there are five ways to move the equilibrium point.
- Stop Putin’s war.
- Increase gas storage.
- Generate more low-cost electricity.
- Increase electricity storage.
- Improve the control algorithm.
I will now look at each in more detail.
Stopping Putin’s War
Giving in to Putin’s ambitions, would be an easy way to solve our energy crisis. But at what cost?
My parents generation, watched as Nazi Germany took over Austria and Czechoslovakia, whilst the world did nothing.
- We mustn’t repeat that mistake.
- We must not flinch in our support of the Ukraine.
- We must be ready to support Moldova, Finland and the Baltic States if Putin expands his ambitions.
I do wonder, if Boris will turn up with Churchillian-style anti-Putin rhetoric all over Eastern Europe.
Increasing Gas Storage
The major gas storage facility is Rough, which is handily close to the Easington gas terminal.
The facility needs maintenance and this paragraph from the Wikipedia entry gives the current status.
In May 2022, the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Kwasi Kwarteng, began talks with the site’s owners with a view to reopening the site to help ease the ongoing cost-of-living crisis in the United Kingdom. In June 2022, owners Centrica submitted an application to the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), the licencing authority for the UK Government, to reopen the facility. Approval was granted in July. Subsequently, Centrica indicated that they are working hard to restore storage operations at Rough which would depend on securing subsidies from the British government. Centrica was aiming to have some capacity available for the winter of 2022/23 against an overall plan to increase storage capacity gradually over time.
Note.
- Rough can store around 2832 million cubic metres of gas.
- This article on Energy Live News is entitled Reopening Of Rough Storage Gets The All-Clear.
Less well-known is SSE and Equinor’s Aldborough Gas Storage.
These three paragraphs from SSE web site, describe the gas storage.
The Aldbrough Gas Storage facility, in East Yorkshire, officially opened in June 2011. The last of the nine caverns entered commercial operation in November 2012.
The facility, which is a joint venture between SSE Thermal (66%) and Equinor, has the capacity to store around 330 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas.
SSE Thermal and Equinor have consent to increase the storage capacity at the Aldbrough site (Aldbrough Phase 2) and during the last couple of years have been working to involve the local community where appropriate to refine aspects of this project, which has not been progressed to date due to market conditions.
Future plans for the facility, may include converting it to one of the world’s largest hydrogen stores.
In the grand scheme of things, Rough and Aldborough, when you consider that the UK uses 211 million cubic metres of gas every day, will only keep us going for a few days.
But it should be noted, that the Easington gas terminal is connected to the Norwegian gas fields, by the Langeled pipeline.
So Yorkshire and Humberside will be alright.
Generating More Low-Cost Electricity
The only low-cost electricity of any size to come on stream will be wind-power.
This article on Renewables Now is entitled UK Hits 25.5 GW Of Wind Power Capacity.
These wind farms seem to be coming on stream soon or have been commissioned recently.
- Dogger Bank A – 1200 MW – Commissioning 2023 expected
- Dogger Bank B – 1200 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
- Dogger Bank C – 1200 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
- Hornsea Two – 1386 MW – Commissioned 2022
- Moray East – 950 MW – Commissioning 2022 expected
- Neart Na Gaoithe – 450 MW – Commissioning 2024 expected
- Seagreen – 1075 MW – Commissioning 2023 expected
- Triton Knoll – 857 MW – Commissioning 2022 expected
That is expected to be over 5 GW of offshore wind by the end of 2023.
In case there is some double counting, I’ll only say that wind power capacity could be near to 30 GW by December 2023, with perhaps another 3 GW by December 2024.
Other large wind farms in the future include.
- Berwick Bank – 4100 MW – Commissioning 2028 expected
- East Anglia Two – 900 MW – Commissioning 2026 expected
- East Anglia Three – 1400 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Inch Cape Phase 1 – 1080 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Hornsea Three – 2800 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Moray West – 294 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Morgan and Mona – 3000 MW – Commissioning for 2028 expected
- Morven – 2900 MW – Commissioning for 2028 expected
- Norfolk Boreas – 1400 MW – Commissioning 2027 expected
- Norfolk Vanguard – 1400 MW – Construction start planned for 2023
- Sofia – 1400 MW – Commissioning 2026 expected
That is over 14 GW of wind power.
I should also take note of solar and onshore wind power detailed in this document from the Department of Business, Industry and Industrial Strategy that lists all the Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 4 results for the supply of zero-carbon electricity.
It gives these figures and dates.
- Solar – 251 MW – Commissioning 2023/24 expected
- Solar – 1958 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
- Onshore Wind – 888 MW – Commissioning 2024/25 expected
I can now build a yearly table of renewables likely to be commissioned in each year.
- 2022 – 3193 MW
- 2023 – 2275 MW
- 2024 – 701 MW
- 2025 – 5246 MW
- 2026 – 2300 MW
- 2027 – 6974 MW
- 2028 – 11400 MW
Note.
- Where a double date has been given, I’m taking the latter date.
- I have assumed that Norfolk Vanguard will be commissioned in 2028.
- I have ignored Hinckley Point C, which should add 3.26 GW in mid-2027.
- I have only taken into account one of the Scotwind wind farms in Scotland, some of which could be commissioned by 2028.
- I have assumed that BP’s Mona, Morgan and Morven will all be commissioned by 2028.
This is a total of 32 GW or an average of nearly 5 GW per year.
Increasing Electricity Storage
Big schemes like the 1.5 GW/ 30 GWh Coire Glas and 600 MW Cruachan 2 will help, but with 32 GW of renewable energy to be installed before 2028 and energy prices rocketing, we need substantial energy storage in the next couple of years.
One feasible plan that has been put forward is that of Highview Power’s CEO; Rupert Pearce,, that I wrote about in Highview Power’s Plan To Add Energy Storage To The UK Power Network.
The plan is to build twenty of Highview Power’s CRYOBatteries around the country.
- Each CRYOBattery will be able to store 30 GWh.
- Each CRYOBattery will be one of the largest batteries in the world.
- They will have three times the storage of the pumped storage hydroelectric power station at Dinorwig.
- They will be able to supply 2.5 GW for twelve hours, which is more output than Sizewell B nuclear power station.
Note.
- The first 30 GWh CRYOBattery is planned to be operational by late 2024.
- 600 GWh distributed around the country would probably be sufficient.
I believe that as these batteries are made from standard proven components, they could be built fairly quickly.
Paying For The Energy Storage
This press release from Highview Power is entitled New Analysis Reveals Extent Of UK Renewable Energy Waste, which makes these three bullet points.
- Enough renewable energy to power 500,000 homes a day wasted since the energy crisis began.
- 8 out of 10 Britons want more investment in boosting Britain’s energy resilience.
- UK spent £390 million turning off wind farms and using gas since September 2021.
Note.
- As the press release was published in July 2022, was the £390 million for ten months.
- Will this level of spend continue, as we’re not creating any electricity storage or building any factories that will start in a year or so, that will need large amounts of electricity?
- The Germans are at least building the NeuConnect interconnector between the Isle of Grain and Wilhelmshaven.
- As we’re adding up to 5 GW per year to our renewable energy systems, this problem will surely get worse and we’ll spend more money switching off wind turbines.
We have the money to build a very large amount of energy storage.
Improving The Control Algorithm
A better control algorithm would always help and politicians should only be allowed to set objectives.
Conclusion
There is a chance we’ll have an oversupply of electricity, but this will have effects in the UK.
- Gas-fired power-stations will be retired from front-line service to produce electricity.
- Some will question the need for nuclear power.
- Gas may even be used selectively to provide carbon dioxide for agricultural, scientific and industrial processes.
- Industries that need a lot of electricity may build factories in the UK.
- We will have a large supply of green hydrogen.
But it should bring the price of electricity down.
New Proton Ceramic Reactor Stack For Highly Efficient Hydrogen Production And Carbon Capture In A Single Step
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Green Car Congress.
This is the opening paragraph.
A team of researchers from CoorsTek Membrane Sciences and SINTEF in Norway, and Universitat Politècnica de València in Spain, has demonstrated a 36-cell well-balanced proton ceramic reactor stack enabled by a new interconnect that achieves complete conversion of methane with more than 99% recovery to pressurized hydrogen, leaving a concentrated stream of carbon dioxide. The team has also demonstrated that the process can be scaled up for commercial application.
A paper has been published in the journal; Science.
I find this concept interesting for a number of reasons.
- I’ve believed for some time, that applications, that need a good supply of pure carbon dioxide will be developed. One obvious use is feeding it to plants in large greenhouses, so we can have our CO2 and eat it!
- 99 % is a very high efficiency.
- Ammonia, natural gas or biogas can be used as a feedstock.
Coors were an Artemis user for project management and I had an enjoyable few days Golden, Colorado and at the Coors brewery, sometime in the 1980s.
- It was then that I first heard of CoorsTek, who used to make ceramics for the US defence industry.
- In those days, the beer was made to German brewing rules and was unpasteurised.
- The beer had to be delivered to customers within a certain time, so long distance deliveries used trains.
- Coors Brewing Company has since merged with Molson, but CoorsTek appears to be still owned by the Coors family.
- I had taken a few small bottles of Adnams Broadside with me and one of their managers analysed one before drinking the rest of the bottle. He informed me that it was a felony to be in possession of such a strong beer in Colorado.
Coors were and probably still are in some ways not your average brewing company.
Coors News Item On Proton Ceramic Membranes For Hydrogen Production
This page on the CoorsTek web site, which is entitled Proton Ceramic Membranes For Hydrogen Production Published In ‘Science’, gives more details.
Conclusion
This technology could be massive.
How Britannia With Help From Her Friends Can Rule The Waves And The Wind
The Government doesn’t seem to have published its future energy plans yet, but that hasn’t stopped the BBC speculating in this article on their web site, which is entitled Energy Strategy: UK Plans Eight New Nuclear Reactors To Boost Production.
These are the first two paragraphs.
Up to eight more nuclear reactors could be delivered on existing sites as part of the UK’s new energy strategy.
The plan, which aims to boost UK energy independence and tackle rising prices, also includes plans to increase wind, hydrogen and solar production.
Other points include.
- Up to 95% of the UK’s electricity could come from low-carbon sources by 2030.
- 50 gigawatts (GW) of energy through offshore wind farms, which would be more than enough to power every home in the UK.
- One of the big points of contention is thought to have been the construction of onshore wind turbines.
- Targets for hydrogen production are being doubled to help provide cleaner energy for industry as well as for power, transport and potentially heating.
- A new licensing round for North Sea oil and gas projects.
- A heat pump accelerator program.
In this post I shall only be looking at one technology – offshore wind and in particular offshore floating wind.
Who Are Our Friends?
I will start with explaining, who I see as our friends, in the title of this post.
The Seas Around Us
If we are talking about offshore winds around the the UK, then the seas around the UK are surely our biggest and most-needed friend.
The Island Of Ireland
The seas are shared with the island of Ireland and the UK and the Republic must work together to maximise our joint opportunities.
As some of the largest offshore wind farm proposals, between Wales and Ireland involve a Welsh company called Blue Gem Wind, who are a partnership between Irish company; Simply Blue Energy, and French company; TotalEnergies, we already seem to be working with the Irish and the French.
The City Of London
Large insurance and pension companies, based in the City of London like, abrdn, Aviva, L & G and others are always looking for investments with which to provide income to back their insurance business and our pensions.
In World’s Largest Wind Farm Attracts Huge Backing From Insurance Giant, I describe why and how, Aviva back wind farms.
Germany
Germany are certainly on our side, despite being in a mess of Mutti Merkel’s making, because she got the country too deeply dependant on Vlad the Mad’s tainted gas.
- German utilities are providing finance to build wind farms in British waters.
- German company; Siemens is manufacturing turbine blades in Hull.
- Germany wouldn’t mind buying any electricity and hydrogen we have spare. Especially, as we haven’t invaded them since 1944.
I suspect a mutually-beneficial relationship can be negotiated.
Norway
I have customised software for a number of countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and the United States and despite selling large numbers of systems to Norway, the Norwegians never requested any modifications.
They are generally easy-going people and they are great friends of the UK. They were certainly a fertile country for the sale of Artemis systems.
Just as the UK worked together with the Norwegians to deliver North Sea Oil, we are now starting to work together to develop renewable energy in the North Sea.
In UK To Norway Sub-Sea Green Power Cable Operational, I describe how we have built the North Sea Link with the Norwegians, which will link the British and Norwegian energy networks to our mutual benefit.
In Is This The World’s Most Ambitious Green Energy Solution?, I describe an ambitious plan called Northern Horizons, proposed by Norwegian company; Aker Solutions to build a 10 GW floating wind farm, which will be 120 km to the North-East of the Shetlands.
Floating Wind Turbines
This is the introduction of the Wikipedia entry for floating wind turbines.
A floating wind turbine is an offshore wind turbine mounted on a floating structure that allows the turbine to generate electricity in water depths where fixed-foundation turbines are not feasible. Floating wind farms have the potential to significantly increase the sea area available for offshore wind farms, especially in countries with limited shallow waters, such as Japan, France and US West coast. Locating wind farms further offshore can also reduce visual pollution, provide better accommodation for fishing and shipping lanes, and reach stronger and more consistent winds.
At its simplest a floating wind farm consists of a semi-submersible platform, which is securely anchored to the sea-bed to provide a firm platform on which to erect a standard wind turbine.
There are currently two operational floating wind farms off the East Coast of Scotland and one in the Atlantic off the Portuguese coast.
- These wind farms are fairly small and use between three and five turbines to generate between 25-50 MW.
- The largest current floating turbines are the 9.5 MW turbines in the Kincardine Wind Farm in Scotland, but already engineers are talking of 14 MW and 20 MW floating turbines.
- Experience of the operation of floating wind turbines, indicates that they can have capacity factors in excess of 50 %.
- Floating wind turbines can be erected on their floats in the safety of a port using a dockside crane and then towed into position.
- Floating wind turbines can be towed into a suitable port for servicing and upgrading.
Many serious engineers and economists, think that floating wind farms are the future.
The Energy Density of Fixed Foundation And Floating Wind Farms
In ScotWind Offshore Wind Leasing Delivers Major Boost To Scotland’s Net Zero Aspirations, I summarised the latest round of Scotwind offshore wind leases.
- Six new fixed foundation wind farms will give a capacity of 9.7 GW in 3042 km² or about 3.2 MW per km².
- Ten new floating wind farms will give a capacity of 14.6 GW in 4193 km² or about 3.5 MW per km².
Note.
- Floating wind farms have a small advantage in terms of energy density over those with fixed foundations.
- Suppose these energy densities are achieved using 14 MW turbines.
- Engineers are talking of 20 MW turbines.
- Using large turbines could increase the energy density by 20/14 or 43 %
We could see in a few years with 20 MW turbines, fixed foundation turbines having an energy density of 4.6 MW per km², with floating turbines having 5 MW per km².
The Potential Of A Ten-Mile Square In The Seas Around Us
I will assume.
- It is at least 100 km from land.
- The water would be at least 100 metres deep.
- There are no structures in the area.
And calculate.
- The area will be a hundred square miles, which is smaller than the county of Rutland.
- This will be 259 square kilometres.
If it were to be filled with floating wind turbines at a density of 5 MW per km², the capacity would be 1300 MW or 1.3 GW.
There must be hundreds of empty ten-mile squares in the seas around us.
Offshore Hydrogen Production And Storage
I believe in the near future, that a lot of offshore wind energy will be converted to hydrogen offshore.
- Electrolysers could be combined with wind turbines.
- Larger electrolysers could be combined with sub-stations collecting the electricity.
- In Torvex Energy, I discuss a method to create hydrogen from seawater, without having to desalinate the water. Surely, this technology would be ideal for offshore electrolysis.
Hydrogen would be brought to shore using pipelines, some of which could be repurposed from existing gas pipelines, that are now redundant, as the gas-fields they served have no gas left.
I also suspect that hydrogen could be stored in a handy depleted gas field or perhaps some form of specialist storage infrastructure.
Combining Wind And Wave Power In A Single Device
Marine Power Systems are a Welsh company, that has developed a semi-submersible structure, that can support a large wind turbine and/or a wave-power generator.
This is the mission statement on their home page.
Marine Power Systems is revolutionising the way in which we harvest energy from the world’s oceans.
Our flexible technology is the only solution of its type that can be configured to harness wind and wave energy, either as a combined solution or on their own, in deep water. Built on common platform our devices deliver both cost efficiency and performance throughout the entire product lifecycle.
Our structurally efficient floating platform, PelaFlex, brings excellent stability and straightforward deployment and maintenance. The PelaGen wave energy converter represents market-leading technology and generates energy at an extremely competitive cost of energy.
Through optimised farm layout and the combination of wind and wave energy, project developers can best exploit the energy resource for any given area of seabed.
We are unlocking the power of oceans.
There is a link on the page to more pages, that explain the technology.
It looks to me, that it is well-designed technology, that has a high-chance of being successful.
It should also be noted that according to this news page on the Marine Power Systems web site, which is entitled MPS Lands £3.5M Of Funding From UK Government, the UK government feel the technology is worth backing.
I certainly believe that if Marine Power Systems are not successful, then someone else will build on their original work.
If wind and wave power can successfully be paired in a single float, then this must surely increase the energy production at each float/turbine in the floating wind farm.
Energy Storage In Wind Turbines
The output of wind farms can be very variable, as the wind huffs and puffs, but I believe we will see energy storage in wind turbines to moderate the electricity and deliver a steadier output.
Using lithium-ion or other batteries may be possible, but with floating offshore turbines, there might be scope to use the deep sea beneath the float and the turbine.
Hybrid Wind Farms
In the latest round of Scotwind offshore wind leases, one wind farm stands out as different. Magnora ASA’s ScotWind N3 Offshore Wind Farm is described as a floating offshore wind farm with a concrete floater.
I can see more wind farms built using this model, where there is another fixed or floating platform acts as control centre, sub-station, energy store or hydrogen electrolyser.
How Much Electricity Could Be Produced In UK And Irish Waters?
I will use the following assumptions.
- Much of the new capacity will be floating wind turbines in deep water.
- The floating wind turbines are at a density of around 5 MW per km²
This Google Map shows the British Isles.
I will look at various seas.
The Celtic Sea
The Celtic Sea is to the South-West of Wales and the South of Ireland.
In Blue Gem Wind, I posted this extract from the The Our Projects page of the Blue Gem Wind web site.
Floating wind is set to become a key technology in the fight against climate change with over 80% of the worlds wind resource in water deeper than 60 metres. Independent studies have suggested there could be as much as 50GW of electricity capacity available in the Celtic Sea waters of the UK and Ireland. This renewable energy resource could play a key role in the UK meeting the 2050 Net-Zero target required to mitigate climate change. Floating wind will provide new low carbon supply chain opportunities, support coastal communities and create long-term benefits for the region.
Consider.
- The key figure would appear 50 GW of electricity capacity available in the Celtic Sea waters of the UK and Ireland.
- Earlier I said that floating turbines can have a wind turbine density of 5 MW per km².
- According to Wikipedia, the surface area of the Celtic Sea is 300,000 km².
To accommodate enough floating turbines to generate 50 GW would need 10000 km², which is a 100 km. square, or 3.33 % of the area of the Celtic Sea.
This wind generation capacity of 50 GW would appear to be feasible in the Celtic Sea and still leave plenty of space for the shipping.
The Irish Sea
According to Wikipedia, the surface area of the Irish Sea is 46,000 km².
Currently, there are ten wind farms in the Irish Sea.
- Six are in English waters, three are in Welsh and one is in Irish.
- None are more than sixteen kilometres from the coast.
The total power is 2.7 GW.
I feel that the maximum number of wind farms in the Irish Sea would not cover more than the 3.33 % proposed for the Celtic Sea.
3.33 % of the Irish Sea would be 1532 km², which could support 7.6 GW of wind-generated electricity.
I can’t leave the Irish Sea without talking about two wind farms Mona and Morgan, that are being developed by an enBW and BP joint venture, which I discussed in Mona, Morgan And Morven. This infographic from the joint venture describes Mona and Morgan.
That would appear to be a 3 GW development underway in the Irish Sea.
Off The Coast Of South-East England, East Anglia, Lincolnshire And Yorkshire
These wind farms are proposed in these areas.
- Hornsea – 6 GW
- Triton Knoll – 900 MW
- Dogger Bank – 3.6 GW
- Norfolk Boreas – 1.8 GW
- Norfolk Vanguard – 1.8 GW
- East Anglia Array – 7.2 GW
- Rampion Extension – 1.2 GW
Note.
All wind farms have comprehensive web sites or Wikipedia entries.
The total capacity of these wind farms is 22.5 GW
The North Sea
According to Wikipedia, the surface area of the North Sea is 570,000 km².
Would it is reasonable to assume, that perhaps a tenth of this area would be available for new wind farms in UK waters?
3.33 % of the available North Sea would be 1898 km², which could support 9.5 GW of wind-generated electricity.
On The East Coast Of Scotland
In Wind Farms On The East Coast Of Scotland, I summarised the wind farms off the East coast of Scotland, that are being built in a cluster in the First of Forth.
This map shows the proposed wind farms in this area.
There are five wind farms in the map.
- The green area is the cable corridor for Seagreen 1a
- Inch Cape is the odd-shaped wind farm to the North and West of the green area
- Seagreen at the top of the map, to the North of Inch Cape.
- Marr Bank with the pink NE-SW hatching
- Berwick Bank with the green NW-SE hatching
- Neart Na Gaoithe is edged in blue to the South of the green area.
Berwick Bank and Marr Bank are both owned by SSE and appear to have been combined.
The capacity of the wind farms can be summarised as follows.
- Seagreen – 1075 MW
- Neart Na Gaoithe – 450 MW
- Inch Cape – 1000 MW
- Berwick Bank and Marr Bank – 4100 MW
This gives a total of 6625 MW or just over 6.6 GW.
Around The North Of Scotland
This map shows the latest successful ScotWind leases.
Note.
- Several of these proposed wind farms have detailed web sites.
These seventeen leases total up to 24.3 GW.
An Interim Total
I believe these figures are realisable.
- Celtic Sea – 50 GW
- Irish Sea – 7.6 GW – 3 GW already underway
- South East England, East Anglia, Lincolnshire And Yorkshire – 22.5 GW
- North Sea – 9.5 GW
- On The East Coast Of Scotland – 6.6 GW
- Around The North Of Scotland – 24.3 GW
Note.
- I have tried to be as pessimistic as possible.
- Irish and North Sea estimates are based on Blue Gem Wind’s professional estimate for the Celtic Sea.
- I have used published figures where possible.
My estimates total up to 120.1 GW of extra wind-power capacity. As I write this, current UK electricity production is around 33 GW.
Vikings Will Invade
This Google Map shows the Faroe Islands, the North of Scotland, Norway and Denmark.
To get an idea of scale, the Shetland Isles are around 70 miles or 113 km. from North to South.
In Is This The World’s Most Ambitious Green Energy Solution?, I talked about Norwegian company; Aker Solutions’s plan for Northern Horizons.
- It would be a 10 GW offshore floating wind farm 136 km to the North-East of the Shetlands.
- This position would probably place it about halfway between the Faroes and the Norwegian coast.
- The project is best described in this article on the Engineer, which is entitled Northern Horizons Plans Clean Energy Exports For Scotland.
- In the article, there is a good graphic and a video.
This will be offshore engineering of the highest class, but then I first came across Norwegian offshore engineering like this in the 1970s, where nothing was too difficult for Norwegian engineers.
There are two major points to remember about the Norwegians.
- They have the Sovereign Wealth Fund to pay for the massive investment in Northern Horizons.
- They need to replace their oil and gas income, with a zero-carbon investment stream.
I feel that Northern Horizons will not be a one-off and the virgin sea in the map above will be liberally carpeted with more floating wind farms.
- On Shetland, electricity can be fed into the UK grid.
- On Norway, electricity can be fed into the Norwegian grid or stored in Norwegian pumped storage systems.
- On Scotland, more pumped storage systems can be built to store energy.
- Hydrogen can be piped to where it is needed to decarbonise heavy industry and transport.
- Norwegian fjords, Shetland harbours, Scottish lochs and possibly Scapa Flow would be ideal places to assemble and service the giant floating turbines and build the other needed floating infrastructure.
- I can also see Denmark getting in on the act, as they will probably want to decarbonise the Faroe Islands.
I estimate that between the Faroes, Scotland and Norway, there are 510,000 km² of virgin sea.
With a potential of 5 MW per km², that area has the potential to create an amazing amount of both electricity and hydrogen.
Exporting Power To Europe
There will need to be more interconnectors from the UK to Europe.
These are already working.
- BritNed – 1 GW – Isle of Grain and Rotterdam
- ElecLink – 1 GW – Through the Channel Tunnel
- HVDC Cross-Channel – 2 GW – England and France
- IFA-2 – 1 GW – England and France
- NemoLink – 1 GW – Kent and Belgium
- North Sea Link – 1.4 GW – Blyth and Norway
- Viking Link – 1.4 GW – Lincolnshire and Denmark
These are proposed.
- GridLink – 1.4 GW – Kent and Dunkirk
- NeuConnect – 1.4 GW – Isle of Grain and Germany
- North Connect – 1.4 GW – Scotland and Norway
There are also gas interconnectors, that could be converted to hydrogen.
This press release from National Grid, which is entitled Undersea Electricity Superhighways That Will Help Deliver Net Zero Move A Step Closer, has these bullet points.
- Positive progress on plans for £3.4bn electricity super-highway projects – Scotland to England Green Links.
- Ofgem opens consultation that recognises the “clear case” and “consumer benefit” of two subsea high voltage cables to transport clean between Scotland and England.
- The cables form part of a planned 16 project £10 billion investment from National Grid to deliver on the government’s target of 40GW of offshore wind generation by 2030.
This paragraph expands on the work by National Grid to meet the third point.
These projects are part of National Grid’s work upgrading the electricity transmission system to deliver the UK government’s target of 40GW of offshore wind generation by 2030. In addition to the Eastern Links, it is developing 14 major projects across its network to facilitate the target representing a £10 billion investment. This includes two further Scotland to England high voltage links (also in partnership with the Scottish transmission network owners) and proposals in the Humber, Lincolnshire, East Midlands, North of England, Yorkshire, North Kent, as well as four in East Anglia (one of which is a proposed offshore link between Suffolk and Kent).
I think we can assume, that National Grid will do their part to allow the UK government’s target of 40GW of offshore wind generation by 2030 to be met.
Will The UK Have 40 GW Of Offshore Wind Generation By 2030?
In the Wikipedia entry for Windpower In The UK, this is the opening sentence.
The United Kingdom is one of the best locations for wind power in the world and is considered to be the best in Europe. By the beginning of March 2022, the UK had 11,091 wind turbines with a total installed capacity of over 24.6 gigawatts (GW): 14.1 GW of onshore capacity and 10.4 GW of offshore capacity.
It would appear an extra 30 GW of wind power is needed.
In An Interim Total earlier, I gave these figures.
- Celtic Sea – 50 GW
- Irish Sea – 7.6 GW – 3 GW already underway
- South East England, East Anglia, Lincolnshire And Yorkshire – 22.5 GW
- North Sea – 9.5 GW
- On The East Coast Of Scotland – 6.6 GW
- ScotWind – 24.3 GW
The wind farms in South East England, East Anglia, Lincolnshire And Yorkshire and ScotWind and Mona and Morgan are either being planned or under construction, and in many cases leases to construct wind farms are being paid.
I would feel, that at least 30 GW of these 56.4 GW of wind farms will be completed by 2030.
Conclusion
Boris’s vision of the UK becoming a Saudi Arabia of wind is no fantasy of a man with massive dreams.
Standard floating wind turbines, with the possibility of also harvesting wave power could be assembled in ports along the coasts, towed into position and then connected up.
Several GW of wind-power capacity could probably be added each year to what would become the largest zero-carbon power station in the world.
By harvesting the power of the winds and waves in the seas around the British Isles it is an engineering and mathematical possibility, that could have been developed by any of those great visionary Victorian engineers like Armstrong, Bazalgette, Brunel and Reynolds, if they had had access to our modern technology.
Up Yours! Putin!
Is This The World’s Most Ambitious Green Energy Solution?
In the 1970s and 1980s, when I was developing Artemis, which was the first desk-sized project management system, we were heavily involved in North Sea Oil, with dozens of systems in Aberdeen. As Norway developed the oil business on the other side of the North Sea, the number of systems there grew to at least twenty.
Increasingly, I became aware of a Norwegian company called Kværner, which seemed to have large numbers of Artemis systems.
In 2002, Kværner merged with Aker Maritime and this eventually led to the formation of Aker Solutions in 2008, which is a company that is headquartered in Oslo and employs nearly 14,000.
According to Wikipedia, the Kværner name was dropped somewhere along the way, as non-Scandinavians have difficulty pronouncing Kværner.
Aker Solutions appears to be wholly Scandinavian-owned, with Aker ASA owning a third of the company.
They are a very respected company, when it comes to offshore engineering for oil and gas and wind projects.
Aker ASA also have a subsidiary called Aker Horizons, which has this web site, where they call themselves a planet-positive company.
This page on the Aker Horizons is entitled Northern Horizons: A Pathway for Scotland to Become a Clean Energy Exporter.
These first two paragraphs outline the project.
A vision to utilise Scottish offshore wind resources in the North Sea to make the country an exporter of clean energy has been unveiled at the COP 26 climate change conference in Glasgow.
The Northern Horizons Project has been unveiled by Aker Horizons’ portfolio companies Aker Offshore Wind and Aker Clean Hydrogen, who have the technical know-how and expertise to realise the project, and DNV, the independent energy expert and assurance provider.
Various targets and ambitions are listed.
- 10 GW of renewable energy in the North Sea.
- 5 GW of green hydrogen.
- Giant turbines nearly as tall as the London Shard on floating platforms more than 130km from Shetland.
- Enough liquid hydrogen will be produced to power 40 percent of the total mileage of local UK buses.
- Enough synthetic fuel to make 750 round trips from the UK to New York.
A completion date of 2030 for this project is mentioned.
This article on The Engineer is entitled Northern Horizons Plans Clean Energy Exports For Scotland.
The article is dated the 4th of November 2021 and starts with this sub-heading and an informative video.
Aker Horizons’ new initiative, Northern Horizons, aims to make Scotland a clean energy exporter by utilising offshore wind resources in the North Sea.
There is an explanatory graphic of the project which shows the following.
- Floating wind turbines.
- A floating DC substation.
- A floating hydrogen electrolyser.
- An onshore net-zero refinery to produce synthetic aviation fuel and diesel.
- A hydrogen pipeline to mainland Scotland.
- Zero-carbon energy for Shetland.
It is all very comprehensive.
These are some other thoughts.
Project Orion
Project Orion how has its own web site and the project that seems to have similar objectives to Northern Horizons.
The title on the home page is Building A World-Leading Clean Energy Island.
There is this statement on the home page.
Orion is a bold, ambitious project that aims to transform Shetland into the home of secure and affordable clean energy.
We will fuel a cleaner future and protect the environment by harnessing the islands’ renewables potential, using onshore and offshore wind, tidal and wave energy.
The graphic has similar features to that Northern Horizons in the article on The Engineer, with the addition of providing an oxygen feed to Skyrora for rocket fuel.
German Finance
I feel very much, that the Germans could be providing finance for developments around Shetland, as the area could be a major source of hydrogen to replace Vlad the Mad’s tainted gas.
In Do BP And The Germans Have A Cunning Plan For European Energy Domination?, I described how BP is working with German utilities and finance to give Germany the hydrogen it needs.
NorthConnect
The NorthConnect (also known as Scotland–Norway interconnector) is a proposed 650 km (400-mile) 1,400 MW HVDC interconnector over the floor of the North Sea.
- It will run between Peterhead in North-East Scotland and Norway.
This project appears to be stalled, but with the harvesting of more renewable energy on Shetland, I can see this link being progressed, so that surplus energy can be stored in Norway’s pumped storage hydro.
Icelink
Icelink is a proposed electricity interconnector between Iceland and Great Britain.
- It would be the longest undersea interconnector in the world, with a length of 620 to 750 miles.
- It would be a 800–1,200 MW high-voltage direct current (HVDC) link.
- National Grid is part of the consortium planning to build the link.
- Iceland has a surplus of renewable energy and the UK, is the only place close enough for a connection.
I believe that if Icelink were to be built in conjunction with energy developments on and around Shetland, a more powerful and efficient interconnector could emerge.
Conclusion
This ambitious project will transform the Shetlands and the energy industry in wider Scotland.
This project is to the North-East of Shetland, but the islands are surrounded by sea, so how many other Northern Horizons can be built in a ring around the islands?
Germany Weighs Norway Hydrogen Pipeline To Avoid Russian Energy
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Hydrogen Central.
This the introductory paragraphs.
Germany and Norway are considering building a hydrogen pipeline linking the two nations to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy supplies.
The countries plan to soon conduct a feasibility study on the project that would eventually transport green hydrogen from Norway to Germany, they said after a meeting between German Economy Minister Robert Habeck and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store.
There is a joint statement that gives more details.
Developments like this and lots of wind power in the North Sea and around the UK, are the sort of actions, that could seriously reduce the size of Russia’s oil and gas industry and the money it pays to that group of war criminals like Vlad the Mad and his friends.
The Anonymous Widower 