Could London And Central Scotland Air Passengers Be Persuaded To Use The Trains?
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Edinburgh?
Wikipedia gives these figures for 2024 for passengers from Edinburgh to London
- London City – 334,873
- London Gatwick – 476,152
- London Heathrow – 1,148,634
- London Luton – 338, 729
- London Stansted – 693,953
This gives a total of 2,992,341.
As Wikipedia doesn’t give complete figures for from London to Edinburgh, for the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume they are the same.
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Glasgow?
Wikipedia gives these figures for 2024 for passengers from Glasgow to London
- London City – 208,405
- London Gatwick – 456,002
- London Heathrow – 954,027
- London Luton – 255,095
- London Stansted – 225,110
This gives a total of 2,098,639.
As Wikipedia doesn’t give complete figures for from London to Glasgow, for the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume they are the same.
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
Adding the two figures gives 5,090,980. in both directions.
Which is an average of 97,903 per week or 13,948 per day.
How Many Train Seats Run Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
These figures are for Friday the 1st of August.
- Aventi West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 5 x 9-car Class 390 train – 2,345 seats
- Aventi West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 16 x 11-car Class 390 train – 6,677 seats
- LNER – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh – 26 x 9-car Class 801 train – 15,886 seats
- Lumo – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh – 5 x 5-car Class 803 train – 2,010 seats
Note.
- All services are all-electric.
- All services are fairly new or have recently been refurbished,
This gives a total of 26,918 train seats.
Adding Lumo’s Service To Glasgow
In Lumo Will Extend Its King’s Cross And Edinburgh Service To Glasgow, I suggested that the Glasgow service would be run as follows from December 2025.
- Two existing Lumo services will leave London as pairs of five-car trains.
- The pairs will split at Edinburgh.
- The leading train will go on to Glasgow Queen Street calling at Edinburgh Haymarket and Falkirk High stations.
- The trailing train will return to London King’s Cross.
- At the end of the day, the two trains in Glasgow will do a fast run back to London King’s Cross as a pair of 5-car trains.
This will add 804 seats per day between London and Glasgow Queen Street in both directions.
The daily total would now total 27,722 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
Adding Lumo’s Service To Stirling
In Lumo To Expand Scotland’s Rail Network With New London-Stirling Rail Route From Spring 2026, I talk about Lumo’s new service to Stirling.
- There will be five trains per day (tpd) in each direction.
- Lumo’s new route will link London Euston directly to Stirling, also calling at Milton Keynes, Nuneaton, Crewe, Preston, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet (serving Coatbridge), Greenfaulds (serving Cumbernauld) and Larbert.
- The service will use 6-car Class 222 trains, which in the linked post, I estimate will have a similar one-class capacity to the Class 803 trains between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh.
- If the capacity of the two train types is similar, this should give operational advantages and allow some more Class 803 trains to run the Euston and Stirling route.
This second Scottish route will add 2010 train seats per day between London Euston and Stirling in both directions.
The daily total would now total 29,732 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
Could More Capacity Be Added Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
I believe some of the Lumo services between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh could be doubled up to a pair of trains.
There would have to be no platform length issues at London King’s Cross, Stevenage, Newcastle and Morpeth stations.
If three trains could be doubled up, that would add 1,206 train seats per day between London and Edinburgh in both directions.
The daily total would now total 30,938 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
I also suspect, that some of the Stirling services could be doubled up.
Connectivity Of England’s Northern Airports To London And Central Scotland
Birmingham Airport
Consider.
- There are easyJet flights to Edinburgh and Glasgow
- There are 1.5 trains per hour (tph) between Birmingham New Street and Edinburgh.
- There are 6 tpd between Birmingham New Street and Glasgow.
You would make your choice and pay the money.
East Midlands Airport
There are no flights or trains to Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Leeds Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Leeds and Edinburgh
- There is one tpd between Leeds and Glasgow
Could Leeds and Glasgow get better connectivity?
Liverpool Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Liverpool Lime Street and Edinburgh
- There is three tpd between Liverpool Lime Street and Glasgow
The Liverpool area is well connected to Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston stations on the West Coast Main Line for alternative services to Glasgow.
Manchester Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Manchester Airport and Scotland via Manchester Piccadilly and Manchester Oxford Road, which alternates between Edinburgh and Glasgow.
The Manchester area is well connected to Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston stations on the West Coast Main Line for alternative services to Glasgow.
Omio gives this summary of flights between Heathrow and Manchester airports.
Flights from Manchester Airport to London Heathrow Airport depart on average 8 times per day, taking around 1h 6m. Cheap flight tickets for this journey start at £63 but you can travel from only £16 by coach.
Wrightbus and others will be producing mouse-quiet hydrogen-powered coaches in a couple of years. I suspect these will give short flights a good kicking.
Newcastle Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is three tph between Newcastle and Edinburgh with an additional 5 tpd from Lumo.
- There is two tpd between Newcastle and Glasgow.
- There is one tpd between Newcastle and Stirling.
- From December 2025, Lumo will add two tpd from Newcastle to Glasgow and one tpd from Glasgow to Newcastle.
- In Lumo Will Extend Its King’s Cross And Edinburgh Service To Glasgow, I stated that I believe that Lumo’s Glasgow to Newcastle service will be a late evening ten-car train, so travellers can have a long day in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Newcastle and still return to London.
Lumo would appear to fill in the gap between Newcastle and Glasgow.
Google AI gives this summary of flights between Heathrow and Newcastle airports.
There are usually 5-6 direct flights per day between Newcastle and Heathrow airports. These flights are operated by British Airways. The average flight time is around 1 hour and 10 minutes.
Note.
- In 2024, 497, 469 passengers flew between between Heathrow and Newcastle airports, which is an average of 681 passengers in each direction every day.
- This was an increase of 13.6 % on 2023.
- From December Lumo will be running extra London King’s Cross and Newcastle services, with each train having 402 seats.
- The improvements in rail services in and around Newcastle in recent months, will surely bring more passengers to use trains from Newcastle station.
- Will Lumo also target adverts at airline passengers?
London and Newcastle could be another route for mouse-quiet hydrogen-powered coaches.
Conclusion
These numbers summarise my calculations.
- Currently an average of 13,948 passengers per day fly between London and Central Scotland.
- Currently, there are 26,918 train seats available per day between London and Central Scotland.
- In December 2025, Lumo will add another 804 low-cost train seats between London King’s Cross and Glasgow Queen Street.
- In Spring 2026, Lumo will add 2010 low-cost train seats between London Euston and Stirling.
- From Spring 2026, there will be 29,732 train seats available per day between London and Central Scotland.
- This represents a 10 % increase of seats on the trains between London and Central Scotland.
How many passengers, who normally fly, will switch to using the train?
- Lumo may only offer one class, but you get a trolley and can order food from M & S and others to be delivered to your seat.
- Both LNER and Lumo accept dogs. I don’t know about Avanti.
- All services will be all-electric, when Lumo gets its new electric trains for Stirling, in a few years.
- It looks to me like Lumo could be offering a late train back to London from Edinburgh and Glasgow.
- Digital signalling on the East Coast Main Line should speed up services.
If Lumo to Glasgow and Stirling works out, it could also cut the total carbon footprint of travel between London and Central Scotland.
Lumo To Expand Scotland’s Rail Network With New London-Stirling Rail Route From Spring 2026
The title of this post is the same as this news item from Lumo.
These three bullet points act as sub-headings.
- Lumo has secured a new route connecting Stirling with London Euston, launching as early as Spring 2026, offering passengers five daily affordable services.
- The announcement comes as Lumo hosted a special event at Holyrood attended by MSPs and Scotland’s MPs, spotlighting Lumo’s contribution to enhancing rail connectivity for previously underserved communities in Scotland.
- The route will provide first-ever direct services to London for Whifflet, Greenfaulds, and Larbert, further boosting economic opportunities and travel options in Scotland.
This first paragraph adds some more details.
Lumo, the UK’s leading Open Access rail operator, today announced it has secured five Class 222 six-car trains for its forthcoming route between London Euston and Stirling, beginning as early as Spring 2026. This expansion aims to enhance travel choice and connectivity for passengers along the central belt of Scotland both to England and to Stirling, offering five daily services with the operator renowned for affordability and efficiency.
I have some thoughts.
What Is The Complete Route?
This is the complete route.
Lumo’s new route will link London Euston directly to Stirling, also calling at Milton Keynes, Nuneaton, Crewe, Preston, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet (serving Coatbridge), Greenfaulds (serving Cumbernauld) and Larbert.
It is fully-electrified and can support 125 mph running most, if not all, of the way.
There Are No Six-Car Class 222 Trains
Consider.
- Currently, five-car Class 222 trains seat 192 in Standard Class and 50 in First Class.
- Currently, seven-car Class 222 trains seat 236 in Standard Class and 106 in First Class.
- Lumo’s five-car Class 803 trains set 402 in Standard Class.
- Lumo’s trains have no First Class.
I estimate that a six-car Class 222 train, with all Standard Class seating would accommodate not far off the 402 seats of one of Lumo’s bog-standard Class 803 trains.
Having identical numbers of passengers on the two fleets, must surely bring operational advantages.
- A six-car Class 222 train could replace a five-car Class 803 train or vice-versa, if Lumo were short of trains.
- Class 222 trains are able to take the Great Northern and Great Eastern Joint Line and other diversions during times of engineering works.
- The Class 222 trains would be able to run between Euston and Rochdale.
- The Class 222 trains might be useful for developing services on routes without electrification.
In the future, a six-car Class 222 train could be directly replaced in Lumo’s fleet by a five-car battery-electric Class 803 train.
The Class 222 Trains Are Diesel-Powered
All the noise and vibration could be a problem, but if I am right about the interchangeability of the two fleets, then this gives some advantages too.
- Earlier delivery of Class 222 trains, than new Class 803 trains, may enable Lumo to start services between Euston and Stirling at an earlier date.
- Earlier delivery of Class 222 trains, may allow selective withdrawal of Class 803 trains for updating.
- A mixed fleet of diesel and electric trains may be able to run more services during engineering works, by using diversion routes without electrification.
- Short route extensions to Dundee or Perth could be tried to assess demand.
There could be some good reasons to get the Class 222 trains into service sooner rather than later.
Will The Diesel Class 222 Trains Be Replaced By Battery-Electric Class 803 Trains?
Although London And Edinburgh By Lumo Using the Joint Line Diversion, was also about Lumo’s proposed Euston and Rochdale service, it was mainly about using battery power to use the Great Northern and Great Eastern Joint Line to avoid engineering works or wiring problems.
Both train types have the following abilities.
- Ability to go between Stirling and Euston via the West Coast Main Line.
- Ability to go between Rochdale and Euston via the West Coast Main Line.
- Ability to go between Stirling and King’s Cross via the East Coast Main Line.
- Ability to go between Edinburgh and King’s Cross via the East Coast Main Line.
- Ability to handle the Great Northern and Great Eastern Joint Line on their own power.
- Ability to handle diversions of up to around a hundred miles on their own power.
As Lumo’s new battery-electric Class 803 trains are delivered, Lumo’s two Anglo-Scottish routes and the one to Rochdale can go all-electric.
Can Lumo Trains Run As Pairs?
I’ve not seen or heard if Lumo have done this, but as I wrote in Ten-Car Hull Trains, I’ve seen Lumo’s sister company Hull Trains run ten-car trains.
As Wikipedia says that both Class 222 and Class 803 trains can run in multiple formations with other trains from the same class, I have to assume it is possible, providing the Fat Controller agrees to the practice.
Has Heidi Alexander Really Said Yes?
After the launch at Holyrood, in front of MSPs and Scottish MPs, it would now be difficult to say No!
But then there’s a by-election to the Scottish Parliament in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse on Thursday.
Is Lumo’s new route an easy drive from the constituency? A Scot, who has worked in the area said Yes!
Conclusion
I like FirstGroup’s plan to create a diesel fleet to introduce new services and back up their current ones, until the new battery-electric Class 803 trains are delivered.
Is FirstGroup’s Order For Fourteen Trains For Lumo And Hull Trains More Identical Than Is Generally Assumed?
Currently, Hull Trains operate Class 802 trains and Lumo operate Class 803 trains.
Both trains are five-car Hitachi A-Trains and appear to be similar in size, although there are other differences.
- Hull Trains have a two-class layout, whereas on Lumo everybody sits in the same class.
- Hull Trains are a true bi-mode with the 700 kW Rolls-Royce mtu diesel generators.
- Lumo only have a battery for emergency hotel power.
- Hull Trains currently operate a route, where up to a hundred miles in each round trip can be on diesel.
- Lumo’s current route is all electric.
However, the differences in train specification doesn’t stop the two operators using each other’s trains.
This is from an article in the November 2023 Edition of Modern Railways, that is entitled Extra Luggage Racks For Lumo.
The co-operation between sister East Coast mail line open access operators Lumo and Hull Trains continues, with one recent move, being the use of a Hull Trains ‘802’ on Lumo services to cover for a shortage of the dedicated ‘803s’ while one unit was out of action for repairs following a fatality. Although the two types are similar, there are notable differences, most obviously that the Hull Trains units are bi-modes while the Lumo sets are straight EMUs and a training conversion course is required for Lumo drivers on the ‘802s’. There are also challenges from a passenger-facing perspective – The Hull Trains units have around 20 % fewer seats and a First Class area.
A future Chief Executive of FirstGroup might at some future date decide to convert all trains to the same specification.
Drive Systems Of The Five-Car Class 80x Trains
I’m writing them down for all the five-car Class 80x trains to make it easier to understand.
- Class 800 train – DPTS–MS-MS-MC–DPTF – (LNER) 3 x 560 kW or (GWR) 3 x 700 kW diesel generators.
- Class 801 train – DPTS–MS-MS-MC–DPTF – 1 x 560 kW diesel generators
- Class 802 train – DPTS–MS-MS-MC–DPTF – (LNER) 3 x 700 kW diesel generators.
- Class 803 train – DPTS–MS-MS-MS–DPTF
- Class 805 train – DPTS–MS-MS-MC–DPTF – 3 x 700 kW diesel generators.
- Class 810 train – DPTS–MS-MS-MC–DPTF – 4 x 735 kW diesel generators.
Note.
- All these five-car trains have the same drive configuration.
- Traction motors are on cars 2 and 4.
- Trains with one diesel generators have them under car 3.
- Trains with three diesel generators have them under cars 2/3/4.
- Trains with four diesel generators have them under cars 1/2/4/5.
- The traction battery in the Class 802 battery-electric test train was 750 kW, according to The Data Sheet For Hitachi Battery Electric Trains.
It is all a very balanced design.
A Standard Basic Train For Hull Trains And Lumo
This may be possible and could be the following.
- A Class 802 or Class 803 train to the latest specification.
- Five cars.
- Interior to the customers specification.
- Ability to work in pairs.
- A standard size traction battery in car 3.
The battery could be changed according to route.
- Carmarthen – 75.3 miles – See Thoughts On Lumo’s Proposed Paddington And Carmarthen Service.
- Edinburgh – 100 miles – To cover the Lincolnshire Diversion.
- Hull – 100 miles – To cover the Lincolnshire Diversion.
- Paignton – 128.2 miles – See Thoughts On Lumo’s Proposed Paddington And Paignton Service.
- Rochdale – 100 miles to cover reverse at Rochdale.
- Sheffield – 100 miles – To cover Retford and Sheffield both ways.
- Stirling – Possibly no batteries required.
I can see a battery range of 100 miles covering most routes.
There could be two or three batteries close together in cars 2, 3 and 4, driving the traction motors in cars 2 and 4 and being charged by them.
These are my thoughts on individual Hull Trains and Lumo routes.
Beverley And Hull
In Could Hull Station Be Electrified?, I put forward my view that if Hull station were to be electrified, it opens up various possibilities of running battery-electric trains to Hull and Beverley.
Hull Trains services would charge the battery, every time they went through Hull station.
Distances needed on battery power to electrification would be.
- Beverley – 16.7 miles for return trip.
- Bridlington – 31.1 miles
- Doncaster – 40.8 miles
- Scarborough – 53.8 miles
- Temple Hirst – 36.1 miles
Except for Scarborough, a single battery would probably suffice.
Beverley and Hull are handled without a battery at present, but Hull Trains might like to carry sufficient power in batteries to be able to handle the Lincoln Diversion.
Carmarthen
Cardiff and Carmarthen via Gowerton is 75.3 miles, which probably means two batteries would be needed.
See Thoughts On Lumo’s Proposed Paddington And Carmarthen Service, for more details.
Edinburgh
Edinburgh is handled without a battery at present, but Lumo might like to carry sufficient power in batteries to be able to handle the Lincoln Diversion.
Paignton
Paignton is the longest route at 128.2 miles and I doubt, it would be talked about if it wasn’t technically possibly.
See Thoughts On Lumo’s Proposed Paddington And Paignton Service, for more details.
Rochdale
Sheffield
Stirling
Stirling could be handled without a battery, but Lumo might like to carry sufficient power in batteries to be able to handle a small diversion.
Could Open Access Operators Use High Speed Two?
In Mayors Propose New Staffordshire To Manchester Rail Line, I suggested the Grand Union Trains might like to run their service between London Euston and Stirling via High Speed Two.
But would this be a feasible idea?
These are my thoughts.
What Is An Open Access Operator?
The Wikipedia entry for Open-Access Operator, provide this answer.
In rail transport, an open-access operator is an operator that takes full commercial risk, running on infrastructure owned by a third party and buying paths on a chosen route and, in countries where rail services run under franchises, are not subject to franchising.
It then lists fifty-four operators in fifteen countries.
As the companies, who provide the services take full commercial risk and don’t get a subsidy from the taxpayer, I don’t see why, that providing, the operator can get the paths, they should be allowed to operate.
If they fail, then that’s the operator’s problem.
Are Any Paths Available On High Speed Two?
These are High Speed Two services as originally planned.
Since the Eastern Leg was cancelled, the following has happened.
- There are only eleven trains per hour (tph) between London Euston and Birmingham Interchange.
- There are only ten tph between Birmingham and Crewe.
- There is one tph between Birmingham and Macclesfield via Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.
Note.
The Trent Valley Line section between Stafford and Crewe is 24.3 miles.
The Trent Valley Line between Handsacre Junction and Crewe is nearly all four tracks.
Currently, this section carries these fast trains.
- Avanti West Coast – 1 tph – London Euston to Blackpool North, Edinburgh or Glasgow via Birmingham New Street.
- Avanti West Coast – 1 tph – London Euston to North Wales
- Avanti West Coast – 1 tph – London Euston to Liverpool Lime Street
- Avanti West Coast – 2 tph – London Euston to Manchester Piccadilly
- Avanti West Coast – 1 tph – London Euston to Scotland
- West Midlands Trains – 1 tph – London Euston to Crewe.
- West Midlands Trains – 1 tph – Stafford to Crewe.
- West Midlands Trains – 1 tph – Birmingham New Street to Liverpool Lime Street.
This totals nine tph and will be 10 tph, when a second London Euston to Liverpool Lime Street is added.
When High Speed Two opens between London Euston and Birmingham Curzon and Handsacre Junction, trains between London Euston and Liverpool, Manchester, the North and Scotland will switch to the Trent Valley Line at Handsacre Junction.
The Trent Valley Line section between Stafford and Crewe will carry these fast trains.
- Avanti West Coast – 1 tph – London Euston to North Wales
- High Speed Two – 2 tph – London Euston to Liverpool Lime Street
- High Speed Two – 3 tph – London Euston to Manchester Piccadilly
- High Speed Two – 2 tph – London Euston to Scotland
- High Speed Two – 1 tph – Birmingham Curzon Street to Scotland
- High Speed Two – 2 tph – Birmingham Curzon Street to Manchester Piccadilly
- West Midlands Trains – 1 tph – London Euston to Crewe.
- West Midlands Trains – 1 tph – Stafford to Crewe.
- West Midlands Trains – 1 tph – Birmingham New Street to Liverpool Lime Street
Note.
- This totals to ten tph for High Speed Two, 1 tph for Avanti West Coast and the tph for West Midlands Trains.
- There is no service to Blackpool.
- It looks to me that the London Euston to North Wales should, as soon as the North Wales Coast Line is electrified become a High Speed Two service.
- Should the Birmingham New Street to Liverpool Lime Street service be replaced with a High Speed Two from Birmingham Curzon Street to Liverpool Lime Street?
There is plenty of paths South of Handsacre Junction on High Speed Two to accommodate a few services to Blackpool and an open access operator like Grand Union Trains, who have been given permission to run a service to Stirling.
Conclusion
My rough calculation says that open access services could be fitted in on the latest variant of High Speed Two.
In Mayors Propose New Staffordshire To Manchester Rail Line, the two Andies; Burnham and Street proposed that the Handsacre Junction and Manchester Airport section of High Speed Two should be built.
If this should happen, then it would open up several possibilities for open access services for the North.
Mayors Propose New Staffordshire To Manchester Rail Line
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce.
These five paragraphs introduce the article.
The mayors of the West Midlands and Greater Manchester have set out proposals for a new railway line between Staffordshire and Manchester Airport in a bid to improve connections to the north.
Work commission by West Midlands mayor Andy Street and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has concluded the new line is the preferred option to tackle congestion on the West Coast Mainline, following the government’s decision to curtail HS2 beyond Birmingham.
A private sector group – chaired by infrastructure expert Sir David Higgins – had been looking at three potential options to improve connectivity between Birmingham and Manchester.
The options included undertaking significant engineering upgrades to the West Coast Main Line, building bypasses at the pinch points on the line and building a new railway between Handsacre and Manchester Airport.
The group, convened by the mayors, is led by global engineering firm Arup with input from over 60 partners from six other firms – Arcadis, Addleshaw Goddard, EY, Dragados, Mace and Skanska.
This paragraph gives the conclusion.
The group has provisionally concluded that a new line – running approximately 70 miles between HS2 at Handsacre and Northern Powerhouse Rail at High Legh – is likely to offer the best combination of costs and benefits.
It looks to me, that this professional approach has led to a sensible answer.
I will now look at the route.
This Open Railway Map shows the tracks to the South of Handsacre.
Note.
- The blue arrow in the North-West corner of the map, indicates the location of the former Armitage station, which had the village of Handsacre to its North-East.
- The red line through Armitage station is the Trent Valley Line.
- Lichfield Trent Valley station is at the bottom of the map.
- The line drawn with large dashes from the South-East corner of the map is the proposed line of High Speed Two. Red indicates under construction and black indicates proposed.
High Speed Two splits into two.
One branch goes North-West to join the Trent Valley Line, whilst the other just stops after about a kilometre.
- All trains for Liverpool, Manchester, North Wales, The North and Scotland will take the Trent Valley Line, when High Speed Two opens.
- Trains for Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and some to Manchester will leave the Trent Valley Line at Colwich Junction.
- All other trains, will take the same route as now and proceed to Crewe via Stafford.
The red dotted line leading from the cancelled branch of High Speed Two shows where the original fast line to Crewe was planned to go.
This Open Railway Map shows the tracks around Crewe.
Note.
- Crewe is the important junction station towards the North-West corner of the map.
- The orange line going South is the West Coast Main Line to The South and London.
- The red dotted line running along the West side of the West Coast Main Line was the proposed route of High Speed Two from Birmingham, London and the South.
This Open Railway Map shows the originally proposed direct route of High Speed Two between Crewe and Handsacre.
Note.
- Crewe is in the North-West corner of the map.
- The blue arrow in the South-East corner of the map, indicates the location of the former Armitage station, which had the village of Handsacre to its North-East.
- The dotted red line was the originally proposed route of High Speed Two.
I feel that this route between Handsacre and Crewe has advantages if it were to be chosen as part of a route between Handsacre and Northern Powerhouse Rail, as recommended by the Mayors and their consultants.
- The route seems to stay well clear of large conurbations.
- A lot of the design work has been at least started and major problems will be known.
- Crewe is the only station on the route, which will need to be upgraded.
- Services to Liverpool, Manchester, North Wales, The North and Scotland will be speeded up.
- With Crewe, Liverpool and North Wales, times could be as High Speed Two promised in the first place.
I feel that building the Handsacre and Crewe section, as originally envisaged, will score high in a benefit/cost analysis
This OpenRailwayMap shows the originally proposed route of High Speed Two between Crewe and Manchester Airport.
Note.
- Crewe is towards the South-West corner of the map.
- Manchester Airport is in the North-East corner of the map.
- The red line going North from Crewe is the West Coast Main Line.
- The dotted red line was the originally proposed route of High Speed Two, between the West Coast Main Line and Manchester Airport.
Northern Powerhouse Rail will go West from Manchester Airport towards Warrington and Liverpool and will join with High Speed Two at a junction at High Legh.
Northern Powerhouse Rail is currently being planned, but surely, if High Speed Two and Northern Powerhouse Rail share a line from High Legh to Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly, this will be a more affordable project.
Services To Crewe
In Could The High Speed Two Link Between Lichfield And Crewe Still Be Built?, which I wrote after much of High Speed Two was chopped in 2023, I said this.
Currently, Avanti West Coast trains take around one hour and thirty minutes between London and Crewe.
The Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two gives these times between London and Crewe.
- Fastest time before High Speed Two – one hour and thirty minutes.
- Time after Phase 2a of High Speed Two opens – fifty-six minutes.
Note.
- That is a time saving of thirty-four minutes.
- High Speed Two Trains will use the direct line between Lichfield and Crewe.
- High Speed Two will also add eighteen tph to the capacity between London and Crewe.
This would seem to mean that any trains going to or through Crewe will be thirty-four minutes faster, if they use High Speed Two between London and Crewe.
If the Handsacre and Crewe direct line is built, it looks like London and Crewe will be the full High Speed Two time of 56 minutes.
Services To Liverpool
Consider.
- Liverpool Lime Street was originally planned to get two trains per hour (tph) to and from London using High Speed Two.
- The approaches into Liverpool were improved a few years ago.
- No more improvements are planned between Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street stations.
- Between Crewe and Liverpool Lime Street stations currently takes 38 minutes.
- There could be time savings on the 16.3 miles between Crewe and Weaver Junction, which currently takes 21 minutes.
It looks like a time of one hour and 34 minutes could be possible, with under one hour and 30 minutes not being impossible.
Services To Manchester
Consider.
- Manchester was originally planned to get three tph to and from London using High Speed Two.
- No improvements are planned between Crewe and the Manchester stations.
- Between Crewe and Manchester Piccadilly stations currently takes 34 minutes.
It looks like a time of one hour and 30 minutes could be possible.
But there is still the option of building a new line between Crewe and Northern Powerhouse Rail at High Legh.
I showed this OpenRailwayMap earlier and it shows the originally proposed route of High Speed Two between Crewe and Manchester Airport.
Note.
- Crewe is towards the South-West corner of the map.
- Manchester Airport is in the North-East corner of the map.
- The red line going North from Crewe is the West Coast Main Line.
- The dotted red line was the originally proposed route of High Speed Two, between the West Coast Main Line and Manchester Airport.
Northern Powerhouse Rail is currently being planned. and will go West from Manchester Airport towards Warrington and Liverpool and will be built first.
A junction at High Legh will be built to link the West Coast Main Line to Northern Powerhouse Rail.
Services To North Wales
Why Not? With the cancellation of the Eastern Leg of High Speed Two, there must be a path available for North Wales.
Consider.
- The North Wales Main Line has been promised electrification.
- As Holyhead and Crewe is only 105.5 miles, it could even be in battery high speed train range in a few years.
- All times to and from Crewe are assumed to be as Avanti West Coast achieve now.
- As Crewe and Chester currently takes 23 minutes, London and Chester would take 1 hour and 19 minutes.
- As Crewe and Llandudno Junction currently takes 1 hour and 22 minutes, London and Llandudno Junction would take 2 hours and 18 minutes.
- As Crewe and Holyhead currently takes 2 hours and 7 minutes, London and Holyhead would take 3 hours and 3 minutes.
Could this open up a fast zero-carbon route between London and Dublin?
Services To Blackpool, Lancaster, Preston, Warrington And Wigan
Why Not, Blackpool? With the cancellation of the Eastern Leg of High Speed Two, there must be an extra path available, if it is needed.
Cpnsider.
- All routes are electrified.
- All times to and from Crewe are assumed to be as Avanti West Coast achieve now.
- As Crewe and Blackpool currently takes 1 hour and 20 minutes, London and Blackpool would take 2 hour and 16 minutes.
- As Crewe and Lancaster currently takes 60 minutes, London and Lancaster would take 1 hour and 56 minutes.
- As Crewe and Preston currently takes 40 minutes, London and Preston would take 1 hour and 36 minutes.
- As Crewe and Warrington Bank Quay currently takes 22 minutes, London and Warrington Bank Quay would take 1 hour and 18 minutes.
- As Crewe and Wigan North Western currently takes 33 minutes, London and Wigan North Western would take 1 hour and 29 minutes.
Note.
- Lancaster in under two hours will help the Eden Project Morecambe.
- For some areas of the North West, it might be more convenient to change at Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western or Preston.
Improvements to track and signalling could probably bring benefits.
Services To Carlisle And Central Scotland
Cpnsider.
- All routes are electrified.
- All times to and from Crewe are assumed to be as Avanti West Coast achieve now.
- As Crewe and Carlisle currently takes 1 hour and 55 minutes, London and Carlisle would take 2 hours and 51 minutes.
- As Crewe and Lockerbie currently takes 2 hours and 6 minutes, London and Lockerbie would take 3 hours and 1 minute.
- As Crewe and Motherwell currently takes 2 hours and 45 minutes, London and Motherwell would take 3 hours and 41 minutes.
- As Crewe and Edinburgh currently takes 3 hours and 9 minutes, London and Edinburgh would take 4 hours and 5 minutes.
- As Crewe and Glasgow Central currently takes 3 hours and 3 minutes, London and Glasgow Central would take 3 hours and 59 minutes.
Note.
- Just under four hours to Glasgow Central would please the Marketing Department.
- Selective splitting and joining could increase the number of destinations.
Improvements to track and signalling could probably bring benefits.
Services To Stirling
In ORR: Open Access Services Given Green Light Between London And Stirling, I wrote about Grand Union Trains’s new open access service to Stirling.
There has been good feedback on this service, so perhaps one of the spare paths on High Speed Two could be allocated to Open Access Operators, so that more of the country could have a high speed service to London Euston and Birmingham Curzon Street stations.
In the related post, I showed that London Euston and Stirling takes forty five minutes longer than a London Euston and Motherwell service.
This would mean that a London Euston and Stirling service via High Speed Two would take four hours and 26 minutes.
Services Between Birmingham Curzon Street and the North West
Under the plans for High Speed Two, the following services would have run North from Birmingham Curzon Street.
- One tph to Edinburgh or Motherwell and Glasgow via Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Lockerbie and Carstairs.
- Two tph to Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly.
But there are now spare paths South of Crewe, so Could a one tph Birmingham Curzon Street and Liverpool Lime Street service be squeezed in?
Could The Line Be Privately Financed?
I suspect that building the section between Handsacre and Crewe could be financed in perhaps a similar way, to the Chiltern improvements or the M6 Toll Road were financed.
- The Handsacre and Crewe section is just a simple stretch of rail, with a number of trains passing along it.
- The number of trains passing through, is likely to increase.
- Every train passing through would pay a track charge, just as they do to Network Rail.
- Those with lots of money to lend, like simple projects like wind farms or road tunnels, but think very hard about anything complicated like nuclear power stations or High Speed Two’s station at Euston.
Certainly, my late and very good friend, David, who dealt with the finance of some of London’s largest projects and was on the top table of London’s bankers, would have found a way. It might though have been unorthodox.
But then David was a rogue. But a rogue on the side of the angels.
Conclusion
I have come to these conclusions.
- Building the direct route between Handsacre and Crewe could be good value as it improves all routes that will pass through Crewe.
- Combining High Speed Two and Northern Powerhouse Rail could substantially cut the costs of both routes to the centre of Manchester.
- London and Crewe times should be 56 minutes.
- London and Liverpool Lime Street times could be under one hour and thirty minutes.
- London and Manchester Piccadilly times could start at one hour and thirty minutes and reduce when Northern Powerhouse Rail is built and linked to the West Coast Main Line.
- London and Holyhead could be just over three hours and could open up a fast zero-carbon route between London and Dublin.
- London and Lancaster in under two hours could help the Eden Project Morecambe.
It’s certainly not a bad plan and it should be looked at in more detail.
ORR: Open Access Services Given Green Light Between London And Stirling
The title of this post is the same as that of this press release from the Office of Rail and Road.
This is the sub-heading.
The latest access decision by the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) provides more services for rail passengers travelling between London and central Scotland.
These five paragraphs detail the ORR’s decision.
ORR has today (7 March) given the go-ahead for Grand Union Trains, an open access operator, to start a new train service between London and the city of Stirling, from June 2025. ORR’s decision will offer more choice to passengers, bring private sector investment to the railway and increase competition.
Grand Union Trains will introduce four new return services per day between London Euston and Stirling stations. These services will also call at Milton Keynes Central, Nuneaton, Crewe (subject to agreement between Grand Union Trains and Network Rail), Preston, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet, Greenfaulds and Larbert. Larbert, Greenfaulds and Whifflet will receive their first direct services to London.
ORR found that the proposed services would increase choice for passengers, significantly increasing direct journey opportunities to and from London and central and southern Scotland, while making use of existing capacity on the network.
The new services will be the first run by an open access operator on the West Coast Mainline. Open access operators run services independently of government funding as they do not have a franchise agreement with government.
Following ORR’s decision to approve new Grand Union Trains services between Carmarthen in south Wales and London Paddington in 2022, ORR has now approved open access services on three of Britain’s major routes.
Note.
- The Grand Union service appears to be running into London Euston. Earlier plans had it terminating at Queen’s Park station.
- Larbert, Greenfaulds and Whifflet will receive their first direct services to London.
- London Euston and Stirling is electrified all the way.
- The third open access service, that the ORR has approved is the Lumo service between King’s Cross and Edinburgh via the East Coast Main Line.
I have a few thoughts.
Stirling Is An Ideal Place To Explore Central Scotland By Train
In Stirling, I give the reasons, why I spent a couple of days in Stirling, when I wanted to visit several places in Central Scotland.
Note.
- Stirling has direct services to Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Inverness and Perth.
- Aberdeen is one hour and 15 minutes away.
- Dundee is just 63 minutes away.
- Edinburgh is just 48 minutes away.
- Glasgow is just 39 minutes away.
- Inverness is two hours and 46 minutes away.
Stirling has about a dozen affordable hotels and guest houses within walking distance of the station, as this map shows.
Stirling would appear to have got Central Scotland covered.
Could The Train Serve Gleneagles?
Gleneagles is about twenty minutes North of Stirling and is served by the Caledonian Sleeper from London.
This Google Map shows the area around Gleneagles station.
Note.
- Gleneagles station is at the bottom of the map.
- The red arrow indicates the famous Gleneagles hotel.
- The pink dots are other hotels.
- Airbnb lists several very splendid properties in the varea.
Not everybody, who goes to the Gleneagles area will be exceedingly rich and I could see the Gleneagles area generating substantial business for Grand Union Trains. I suspect the best way to serve Gleneagles would be a zero-emission coach from Stirling.
Along The Motherwell And Cumbernauld Line
Between Motherwell and Stirling, a lot of the route used is on the Motherwell and Cumbernauld Line.
- The line is fully-electrified.
- It is only 28.9 miles between Motherwell and Stirling.
- \cumbernaukd and Motherwell takes 20 minutes.
I do wonder, if extra stops might be worthwhile.
Motherwell Has Good Connections To Edinburgh And Glasgow
As well as Stirling, Motherwell has good connections to both Edinburgh and Glasgow, so some passengers might find their most convenient route involves a change at Motherwell.
Nuneaton And Scotland Would Get A New Service
Nuneaton has been named by Avanti West Coast, as a place that needs more trains, as it connects with the service between Birmingham and Stansted Airport, via Coleshill Parkway, Leicester, Peterborough, March, Ely and Cambridge.
I suspect that, Nuneaton will become an interchange, between East Anglia and, the North West and West Scotland.
Milton Keynes And Scotland Should Get An Improved Service
Consider.
- It appears that all Avanti West Coast services between Milton Keynes and Scotland, go via Birmingham.
- I suspect that Grand Union’s route using the Trent Valley Line could be faster with similar trains.
- Creating a new route between Milton Keynes and Stirling could be a good move, as it gives one-change access to much of Central Scotland.
- Milton Keynes has good local connections to places like Northampton, Rugby, Tring and Watford Junction.
- Milton Keynes will be a stop on the new East-West Railway.
- From many stations, it will be quicker to go via Milton Keynes rather than Euston.
I suspect Milton Keynes could be a nice little earner.
Will Grand Union’s Trains Be Fitted With Digital Signalling?
Consider.
- At some point in the next ten years the West Coast Main Line will be fitted with digital signalling, to enable trains to run at 140 mph on selected parts of the route.
- Digital signalling will allow extra services between London Euston and Motherwell.
- Motherwell and London Euston is 388 miles.
I suspect, that Grand Union’s Trains will need to be fitted with digital signalling, so they can save time on services and possibly add in a few more.
It will add costs, although the faster speed will surely attract passengers.
Will Grand Union’s Trains Be Electric?
There are these train services going between England and Scotland.
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston to Edinburgh Waverley via Birmingham New Street – 7 tpd – Class 390 – Electric
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston to Glasgow Central via Birmingham New Street – 5 tpd – Class 390 – Electric
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston to Glasgow Central via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Class 390 – Electric
- CrossCountry – Plymouth to Edinburgh Waverley – 1 tph – Class 220/221 – Diesel – Uses diesel all the time
- LNER – London King’s Cross/Leeds to Aberdeen – 4 tpd – Class 800 – Bi-mode – Uses diesel North of Edinburgh
- LNER – London King’s Cross to Inverness – 1 tpd – Class 800 – Bi-mode – Uses diesel North of Stirling
- LNER – London King’s Cross to Edinburgh Waverley – 3p2h – Class 800 – Bi-mode or Class 801 – Electric
- LNER – London King’s Cross to Glasgow Central – 1 tpd – Class 801 – Electric
- LNER – London King’s Cross to Stirling – 1 tpd – Class 801 – Electric
- Lumo – London King’s Cross to Edinburgh – 5 tpd – Class 803 – Electric
- TransPennine Express – Newcastle to Edinburgh Waverley – 7 tpd – Class 802 – Bi-mode
- TransPennine Express – Liverpool Lime Street to Glasgow Central – 2 tpd – Class 397 – Electric
- TransPennine Express – Manchester Airport to Edinburgh Waverly – 1 tp2h – Class 397 – Electric
- TransPennine Express – Manchester Airport to Glasgow Central – 1 tp2h – Class 397 – Electric
Note.
- tpd is trains per day.
- tph is trains per hour.
- tp2h is trains per two hours.
- LNER services to Glasgow and Stirling are likely to be dropped.
- Some Lumo services are likely to be extended from Edinburgh to Glasgow.
- Many services South from Stirling to Edinburgh Waverley and Glasgow Queen Street are electric.
The current two tpd direct trains to Stirling are electric and if you change at Edinburgh Waverley or Glasgow, it is likely to be an all-electric service.
For marketing reasons, I would recommend, that Grand Union Trains ran electric trains between London Euston and Stirling, as they are competing against an all-electric service.
Although to meet service dates it might be necessary to run something like a diesel Class 222 train to get the service started.
What Trains Will Grand Union Use?
The Wikipedia entry for Grand Union Trains, says this for their London Euston and Stirling service.
In 2023 Grand Union revised its proposal changing its planned rolling stock to Class 22x units, at the same time the start date for this service was changed to June 2025.
I would suspect they will put in the order for new electric trains fairly sharpish.
The new trains could be.
- A variant of Hitachi’s Class 800 trains.
- A variant of CAF’s Class 397 trains.
Would they have an emergency battery un case of overhead line failure?
How Long Will A Service Take?
The service can be divided into two sections.
- London Euston and Motherwell – 388 miles.
- Motherwell and Stirling – 28.9 miles.
Note.
- The 08:30 train from Euston to Motherwell takes 4 hours and 17 minutes with six stops via Nuneaton.
- The Grand Union Trains service will also have six stops and go via Nuneaton.
I would expect with today’s signalling and electric trains, that Euston and Motherwell would take a maximum of 4 hours and 17 minutes.
- The twenty minute time to Cumbernauld could be added.
- The twenty-five minute time between Cumbernauld and Stirling could be added.
It looks the time would be just over five hours.
I doubt there would be much scope for increasing speed North of Motherwell, but could there be savings made to the South of Motherwell?
Consider.
- London Euston and Motherwell is 388 miles.
- Four hours and 17 minutes is 257 minutes.
- Motherwell is on the main London Euston and Glasgow Central route.
This is an average speed between London Euston and Motherwell of 90.6 mph.
By comparison.
- London King’s Cross and Edinburgh is 392.6 miles.
- Journeys can take four hours and 20 minutes or 260 minutes.
This is an average speed between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh of 90.6 mph.
In the next decade, there will be improvements on both the East and West Coast Main Lines.
- King’s Cross and Edinburgh is currently being digitally signalled.
- London Euston and Glasgow Central is likely to be an early priority for digital signalling after London King’s Cross and Edinburgh is completed.
- When High Speed Two opens to Birmingham and Lichfield, High Speed Two trains between London Euston and Glasgow Central will use the West Coast Main Line to the North of Lichfield.
- I wouldn’t be surprised to see some track realignment and modifications to improve speeds on the West Coast Main Line to the North of Lichfield.
I can build a table of times between London Euston and Motherwell against average speed.
- 90 mph – 4 hours 19 minutes
- 100 mph – 3 hours 53 minutes
- 110 mph – 3 hours 32 minutes
- 120 mph – 3 hours 14 minutes
- 125 mph – 3 hours 6 minutes
- 130 mph – 2 hours 59 minutes
Note.
- Adding 15 minutes gives a London Euston and Glasgow Central time.
- Adding 45 minutes gives a London Euston and Stirling time.
- Averaging 120 mph would give London Euston and Glasgow Central or Stirling times of under four hours.
It strikes me, that to improve Anglo-Scottish relations and to make rail a better alternative to flying, a priority for all West Coast services is to improve the West Coast Main Line and install digital signalling, so that a 120 mph average is possible between London Euston and Motherwell.
What Difference Will High Speed Two Make?
High Speed Two is claiming it will knock thirty minutes off times between London Euston and Glasgow Central, when it opens to Birmingham and Lichfield.
But Grand Union Trains are not expected to use the new line between London Euston and Lichfield, as High Speed Two will, as it will make calling at Milton Keynes and Nuneaton impossible, as they are bypassed by High Speed Two.
Conclusion
This train service is going to be good for Milton Keynes, Nuneaton and Stirling and all the towns in Central Scotland.
But they must make full use of the available electrification.
Grand Union Sets Out Stirling Ambitions
The title of this post, is the same as that of an article in the December 2022 Edition of Modern Railways.
This is the first paragraph.
Grand Union Trains has updated its plans to operate services between Stirling and London Euston. It is targeting a 10-year track access agreement with services starting in May 2025.
I have a few thoughts.
The Route
The route between Stirling and Euston is as follows.
- Trains will call at Larbert, Greenfauds, Whifflet, Motherwell, Lockerbie, Carlisle, Preston, Nuneaton and Milton Keynes.
- Station upgrades are proposed for Larbert, Greenfauds, Whifflet and Lockerbie.
- The route is fully-electrified.
- There will be four trains per day in both directions, with a slightly reduced service on Saturday evenings and Sunday mornings.
This sentence from the article sums up the philosophy of Grand Union Trains.
The company says the aim is to link towns which have no or limited long-distance services and to improve connectivity for some station pairs on the West Coast Main Line.
Note.
Currently Larbert, Greenfauds and Whifflet don’t have services running past Stirling or Motherwell.
- Currently, Nuneaton and Milton Keynes have no Scottish services.
- Nuneaton is well connected to Peterborough and the East.
- Milton Keynes will be on the East-West Railway to Oxford and Cambridge.
It looks to be a service that has been well-planned and offers good possibilities for travel.
The Trains
The article says this about the trains.
New bi-mode rolling stock would be used and GUT says discussions with potential suppliers and manufacturers are ongoing.
Why Are Bi-Mode Trains Needed?
I can think of these reasons.
- Grand Union Trains want to run their South Wales services with the same trains.
- They might want to extend Scottish services from Stirling to perhaps Perth or Dundee.
- They want to offer a reliable service, when the electrification is damaged.
Bi-mode trains will certainly offer flexibility and reliability.
How Long Will The Trains Be?
Consider.
- An eleven-car Class 390/1 train is 265.3 metres long.
- A pair if five-car Class 802 trains is 260 metres long.
I suspect a train has a maximum length of 260 metres and these can be run between London Euston and Stirling.
Could it be that station upgrades are needed for Larbert, Greenfauds, Whifflet and Lockerbie, is that these stations have short platforms?
Could the trains and platforms start short and grow with the business?
The Trains Will Have Three Classes
These classes will be offered.
- First Class in compartments
- Standard in a 2+1 arrangement
- Standard Economy in a 2+2 arrangement
You pays your money and you make your choice.
Vanload Freight May Be Carried
Consider.
- There has been a lot of speculation and some serious train conversions, looking at the possibilities of high speed freight.
- Imagine a train of perhaps five passenger cars and one freight car for containerised freight.
- I suggested earlier, that the trains might grow with the business.
- As business develops, extra cars can be added as appropriate.
- If business booms, then it might be best to run separate passenger and freight services.
Modern trains and refurbished older ones, offer a multitude of solutions.
The Finance
The article says this about finance.
Grand Union Trains has linked with European independent investment firm Serena Industrial Partners to support its ambitions for its new Great Western service, and the project is supported by Spanish operator RENFE.
Serena Industrial Partners are Spanish, so does that mean, that the trains could be Spanish too?
Open Access Operators And The Lumo Model
In the UK, there are only three established Open Access operators, who run UK train services.
- Grand Central
- Heathrow Express
- Hull Trains
From the 25th of October, they will be joined by Lumo.
We probably don’t think of Heathrow Express as an Open Access operator and as it is effectively a short distance special service with new trains between Heathrow and Paddington, it has its own business model, that may or may not survive.
But how will Lumo and their bold new business model affect Grand Central, Hull Trains and any future Open Access operators?
Grand Central Trains
Grand Central is a well-established Open Access operator.
- They run services between London King’s Cross and Bradford Interchange, Sunderland and several other convenient en-route stations.
- They are owned by Deutsche Bahn.
- They also regularly seem to apply for new routes and extra services.
But they have a big problem fast catching up on them; they have a diesel-only fleet and need to decarbonise.
I also think that all express passenger services on the East Coast Main Line will at some date need to be run by 140 mph trains capable of running with full digital signalling and a degree of Automatic Train Operation.
In Lumo: Why Won’t The New Train Service Stop At Yorkshire Stations?, I said that to continue to be successful, they probably need to embrace the Lumo model and acquire new trains.
I will repeat what I said in the related post.
This would entail.
- The ten diesel Class 180 trains would be replaced by new electric trains.
- The trains would need a 140 mph capability under digital signalling to fit in with the plans of Network Rail, LNER and Lumo to create a top-class high-speed high-capacity East Coast Main Line.
- The trains would need a battery capability as Grand Central’s routes are not fully electrified.
- They could copy Lumo’s green marketing philosophy, ticketing and catering offering.
As to the trains, I’m sure that Hitachi could offer a version of their Intercity Tri-Mode Battery Train, the specification of which is shown in this Hitachi infographic.
The trains would need a range of fifty miles on battery-power.
I have some other thoughts.
Financing
If you look at the finances of decarbonising Grand Central, they would need a new fleet of ten trains, which as Lumo’s fleet of five trains are reported to be costing £100 million, so that figure can be at least doubled.
There would also be costs for the two charging systems at Bradford Interchange and Sunderland. But at least there are several possible solutions for charging systems, so the price will probably not be more than a few million, if that.
Will Deutsche Bahn be prepared to stump up the extra finance?
A Service To Cleethorpes
In the Wikipedia entry for Grand Central, there is a section which is entitled London Kings Cross to Cleethorpes, which outlines a proposed service.
- It would split and join with the London King’s Cross and Bradford service at Doncaster.
- It would call at Crowle, Scunthorpe, Barnetby, Habrough and Grimsby.
- Doncaster and Cleethorpes is 52.1 miles and should be in range of a Battery-electric train with a charging system at Cleethorpes.
Using current times from LNER and TransPennine Express, I estimate that Hitachi Intercity Tri-Mode Battery Trains could travel between London and Cleethorpes in around two hours and twenty minutes.
With digital signalling on the East Coast Main Line to the South of Doncaster, the overall time could be much closer to two hours.
This could be a very viable service with battery-electric trains capable of running at 140 mph on the East Coast Main Line and for sixty miles at 100 mph on battery power.
Maximising The Use Use Of Train Paths By The Use Of Splitting And Joining
The proposed service to Cleethorpes is a classic use of splitting and joining, which enables two separate services to run a large part of their routes together.
- On the East Coast Main Line, it means that maximum use can be made of the paths available.
- Splitting and joining is part of the specification for the Hitachi trains and they do it automatically in under two minutes.
- LNER are already talking about using the technique to serve various destinations from Leeds.
I wouldn’t rule out Grand Central’s two services working as a pair between London King’s Cross and Doncaster, where they would split and join.
Conclusion On Grand Central Trains
Decarbonisation with high-speed battery-electric trains could ensure the future of Grand Central Trains.
Hull Trains
Hull Trains is another well-established Open Access operator.
- They run services between London King’s Cross and Hull and Beverley.
- They have a fleet of five bi-mode Class 802 trains.
- The company is part of First Group.
Hull Trains don’t have the decarbonisation problem of Grand Central Trains, as I suspect Hitachi will come up with a solution to turn Class 802 trains into a battery-electric train with a range of perhaps seventy miles on battery power.
- Beverley and Temple Hirst junction is a distance of 44.3 miles and is the only section of the route without electrification.
- Charging of the batteries will be needed at the Eastern end and probably would be best handled by a short length of electrification in Hull station or between Hull and Brough stations.
The Class 802 trains are also ready for updating to run under the new digital signalling of the East Coast Main Line.
First Harrogate Trains
First Harrogate Trains was a subsidiary of Hull Trains, which hoped to run the following services.
- London King’s Cross and Harrogate via York
- London King’s Cross and Cleethorpes via Peterborough, Spalding and Lincoln
Both these services could be run in conjunction with the current service with an appropriate split and join.
Conclusion On Hull Trains
As both Hull Trains and Lumo share London King’s Cross and are both owned by First Group, I would expect that both train operators would share some services, methods and ideas.
There may be advantages if Hull Trains’s Class 802 trains and Lumo’s Class 803 trains could run each other’s services.
Grand Union
Grand Union is a prospective open access operator who are proposing to operate train services from England to Wales and Scotland.
They are proposing two services.
London Paddington and Cardiff Central via Reading, Bristol Parkway, Severn Tunnel Junction, Newport and Cardiff Parkway, with a possible extension later to Swansea andLlanelli or Carmarthen.
London Euston and Stirling via Milton Keynes Central, Nuneaton, Crewe, Preston, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet, Greenfaulds and Larbert.
Note.
- London Paddington and Cardiff Central is fully electrified, but there is no electrification West of Cardiff Central.
- Cardiff Central and Swansea are 45.7 miles apart.
- London Euston and Stirling is fully electrified.
Currently, the rolling stock for both services is proposed to be a tri-mode Class 93 locomotive hauling a rake of Mark 4 coaches and a driving van trailer.
The locomotive should be capable of handling the routes to Stirling and Cardiff using the electrification alone.
When the Cardiff route is extended, Grand Union would intend to use Class 802 trains, which could be fitted with batteries to serve Swansea, where the batteries would be charged.
There is no sign as yet, that the Office of Rail and Road have approved any of their possible services, but both services might be improved with some Lumo-style thinking.
Alliance Rail Holdings
Alliance Rail Holdings, which is a sister company to Grand Central, is ultimately owned by Deutsche Bahn, seems to have several ideas for new services, but only seems to have got approval to one.
They were given approval some years ago to run a service between London Euston and Blackpool North.
- Calls would be made at Poulton-le-Fylde, Kirkham and Wesham, Preston, Nuneaton and Milton Keynes Central.
- There will be six trains per day.
- Trains would be InterCity 225 trains.
- The approval is for seven years from 2018.
But because of the pandemic it hasn’t run.
Conclusion
The Lumo model will affect all these services.
The Anonymous Widower 