Could London And Central Scotland Air Passengers Be Persuaded To Use The Trains?
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Edinburgh?
Wikipedia gives these figures for 2024 for passengers from Edinburgh to London
- London City – 334,873
- London Gatwick – 476,152
- London Heathrow – 1,148,634
- London Luton – 338, 729
- London Stansted – 693,953
This gives a total of 2,992,341.
As Wikipedia doesn’t give complete figures for from London to Edinburgh, for the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume they are the same.
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Glasgow?
Wikipedia gives these figures for 2024 for passengers from Glasgow to London
- London City – 208,405
- London Gatwick – 456,002
- London Heathrow – 954,027
- London Luton – 255,095
- London Stansted – 225,110
This gives a total of 2,098,639.
As Wikipedia doesn’t give complete figures for from London to Glasgow, for the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume they are the same.
How Many Passengers Fly Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
Adding the two figures gives 5,090,980. in both directions.
Which is an average of 97,903 per week or 13,948 per day.
How Many Train Seats Run Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
These figures are for Friday the 1st of August.
- Aventi West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 5 x 9-car Class 390 train – 2,345 seats
- Aventi West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central – 16 x 11-car Class 390 train – 6,677 seats
- LNER – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh – 26 x 9-car Class 801 train – 15,886 seats
- Lumo – London King’s Cross and Edinburgh – 5 x 5-car Class 803 train – 2,010 seats
Note.
- All services are all-electric.
- All services are fairly new or have recently been refurbished,
This gives a total of 26,918 train seats.
Adding Lumo’s Service To Glasgow
In Lumo Will Extend Its King’s Cross And Edinburgh Service To Glasgow, I suggested that the Glasgow service would be run as follows from December 2025.
- Two existing Lumo services will leave London as pairs of five-car trains.
- The pairs will split at Edinburgh.
- The leading train will go on to Glasgow Queen Street calling at Edinburgh Haymarket and Falkirk High stations.
- The trailing train will return to London King’s Cross.
- At the end of the day, the two trains in Glasgow will do a fast run back to London King’s Cross as a pair of 5-car trains.
This will add 804 seats per day between London and Glasgow Queen Street in both directions.
The daily total would now total 27,722 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
Adding Lumo’s Service To Stirling
In Lumo To Expand Scotland’s Rail Network With New London-Stirling Rail Route From Spring 2026, I talk about Lumo’s new service to Stirling.
- There will be five trains per day (tpd) in each direction.
- Lumo’s new route will link London Euston directly to Stirling, also calling at Milton Keynes, Nuneaton, Crewe, Preston, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet (serving Coatbridge), Greenfaulds (serving Cumbernauld) and Larbert.
- The service will use 6-car Class 222 trains, which in the linked post, I estimate will have a similar one-class capacity to the Class 803 trains between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh.
- If the capacity of the two train types is similar, this should give operational advantages and allow some more Class 803 trains to run the Euston and Stirling route.
This second Scottish route will add 2010 train seats per day between London Euston and Stirling in both directions.
The daily total would now total 29,732 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
Could More Capacity Be Added Between London And Scotland’s Central Belt?
I believe some of the Lumo services between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh could be doubled up to a pair of trains.
There would have to be no platform length issues at London King’s Cross, Stevenage, Newcastle and Morpeth stations.
If three trains could be doubled up, that would add 1,206 train seats per day between London and Edinburgh in both directions.
The daily total would now total 30,938 train seats, which compares with a daily average of 13,948 passengers per day, who travel by air.
I also suspect, that some of the Stirling services could be doubled up.
Connectivity Of England’s Northern Airports To London And Central Scotland
Birmingham Airport
Consider.
- There are easyJet flights to Edinburgh and Glasgow
- There are 1.5 trains per hour (tph) between Birmingham New Street and Edinburgh.
- There are 6 tpd between Birmingham New Street and Glasgow.
You would make your choice and pay the money.
East Midlands Airport
There are no flights or trains to Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Leeds Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Leeds and Edinburgh
- There is one tpd between Leeds and Glasgow
Could Leeds and Glasgow get better connectivity?
Liverpool Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Liverpool Lime Street and Edinburgh
- There is three tpd between Liverpool Lime Street and Glasgow
The Liverpool area is well connected to Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston stations on the West Coast Main Line for alternative services to Glasgow.
Manchester Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is one tph between Manchester Airport and Scotland via Manchester Piccadilly and Manchester Oxford Road, which alternates between Edinburgh and Glasgow.
The Manchester area is well connected to Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and Preston stations on the West Coast Main Line for alternative services to Glasgow.
Omio gives this summary of flights between Heathrow and Manchester airports.
Flights from Manchester Airport to London Heathrow Airport depart on average 8 times per day, taking around 1h 6m. Cheap flight tickets for this journey start at £63 but you can travel from only £16 by coach.
Wrightbus and others will be producing mouse-quiet hydrogen-powered coaches in a couple of years. I suspect these will give short flights a good kicking.
Newcastle Airport
Consider.
- There are no flights to Edinburgh or Glasgow.
- There is three tph between Newcastle and Edinburgh with an additional 5 tpd from Lumo.
- There is two tpd between Newcastle and Glasgow.
- There is one tpd between Newcastle and Stirling.
- From December 2025, Lumo will add two tpd from Newcastle to Glasgow and one tpd from Glasgow to Newcastle.
- In Lumo Will Extend Its King’s Cross And Edinburgh Service To Glasgow, I stated that I believe that Lumo’s Glasgow to Newcastle service will be a late evening ten-car train, so travellers can have a long day in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Newcastle and still return to London.
Lumo would appear to fill in the gap between Newcastle and Glasgow.
Google AI gives this summary of flights between Heathrow and Newcastle airports.
There are usually 5-6 direct flights per day between Newcastle and Heathrow airports. These flights are operated by British Airways. The average flight time is around 1 hour and 10 minutes.
Note.
- In 2024, 497, 469 passengers flew between between Heathrow and Newcastle airports, which is an average of 681 passengers in each direction every day.
- This was an increase of 13.6 % on 2023.
- From December Lumo will be running extra London King’s Cross and Newcastle services, with each train having 402 seats.
- The improvements in rail services in and around Newcastle in recent months, will surely bring more passengers to use trains from Newcastle station.
- Will Lumo also target adverts at airline passengers?
London and Newcastle could be another route for mouse-quiet hydrogen-powered coaches.
Conclusion
These numbers summarise my calculations.
- Currently an average of 13,948 passengers per day fly between London and Central Scotland.
- Currently, there are 26,918 train seats available per day between London and Central Scotland.
- In December 2025, Lumo will add another 804 low-cost train seats between London King’s Cross and Glasgow Queen Street.
- In Spring 2026, Lumo will add 2010 low-cost train seats between London Euston and Stirling.
- From Spring 2026, there will be 29,732 train seats available per day between London and Central Scotland.
- This represents a 10 % increase of seats on the trains between London and Central Scotland.
How many passengers, who normally fly, will switch to using the train?
- Lumo may only offer one class, but you get a trolley and can order food from M & S and others to be delivered to your seat.
- Both LNER and Lumo accept dogs. I don’t know about Avanti.
- All services will be all-electric, when Lumo gets its new electric trains for Stirling, in a few years.
- It looks to me like Lumo could be offering a late train back to London from Edinburgh and Glasgow.
- Digital signalling on the East Coast Main Line should speed up services.
If Lumo to Glasgow and Stirling works out, it could also cut the total carbon footprint of travel between London and Central Scotland.
London And Edinburgh By Lumo Using the Joint Line Diversion
This press release on the First Group web site is entitled FirstGroup Applies To Run Rochdale To London Rail Service With New British-Built Trains.
These are the first two paragraphs.
FirstGroup plc, the leading private sector transport operator, has submitted the first phase of an application for a new open access rail service between Rochdale and London to the Office of Rail and Road (ORR), restoring this direct link for the first time in almost a quarter of a century.
FirstGroup plans to expand its open access rail operations as part of its successful Lumo business, building on Lumo’s existing service which has transformed long-distance connectivity between London and Edinburgh and helped support a growth in passenger numbers for all operators on the East Coast Mainline. All of the trains on this new route will be electric and battery powered, and the service will be operated by brand new trains built in the UK.
Note.
- This service will be run under the Lumo brand.
- Battery-electric trains will be used.
- Stops will include Manchester Victoria, Eccles, Newton-le-Willows and Warrington Bank Quay.
- Only 15 km. of the route, between Miles Platting and Rochdale is not electrified.
Allowing for out and back trips between Platting and Rochdale, a sensible reserve and I suspect a battery-electric train with a range of 40-50 kilometres, would allow the train to be able to do a round trip to Rochdale from London Euston.
Hitachi have now published this page on their web site, which is entitled Intercity Battery Trains.
These are the first two paragraphs.
A quick and easy application of battery technology is to install it on existing or future Hitachi intercity trains. Hitachi Rail’s modular design means this can be done without the need to re-engineer or rebuild the train and return them to service as quickly as possible for passengers.
Replacing one diesel engine with just one battery reduces emissions by more than 20% and offers cost savings of 20-30%. Our intercity battery powered trains can cover 70km on non-electrified routes, operating at intercity speeds at the same or increased performance.
It would appear that Hitachi’s standard Intercity Battery Train will have a range of 70 km.
- A 70 km. range would be more than enough to handle Lumo’s Euston and Rochdale service.
- Lumo’s Class 803 trains don’t have a diesel generator to replace.
- One car does have a smaller battery for emergency hotel power, should the electrification fail.
As an Electrical Engineer, I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that the traction batteries of Hitachi’s standard Intercity Battery Train and the emergency batteries of Lumo’s Class 803 trains are of a similar design. The batteries could even be interchangeable, which would enable both Lumo’s routes to Scotland and Rochdale to use identical Class 803 trains.
Lumo’s Class 803 trains would have this specification.
- All-electric.
- Emergency battery to provide back-up hotel power.
- A range on battery of 70 km or 43 miles away from electrification.
The off-electrification range could be very useful in getting round incidents or overhead wiring problems.
An extended range of 70 km. would allow the following destinations to have all-electric services from London.
- Beverley #
- Bristol Temple Meads #
- Cheltenham #
- Chester
- Harrogate
- Huddersfield
- Hull
- Lincoln
- Middlesbrough
- Swansea #
Destinations marked with a hash (#), would need charging at the final destination.
A more detailed analysis will probably show other possible routes.
It looks to me, that Hitachi have got the specification of their Intercity Battery Train about right.
Bridging The Joint Line Diversion
This OpenRailwayMap shows the Great Northern and Great Eastern Joint Line (GNGE) or Joint Line.
Note.
- Doncaster is in the North-West corner of the map.
- Peterborough is in the South-East corner of the map.
- The red line connecting them is the East Coast Main Line.
- Lincoln station is marked by the blue arrow.
Great Northern and Great Eastern Joint Line (GNGE) is described like this by its Wikipedia entry.
The Great Northern and Great Eastern Joint Railway, colloquially referred to as “the Joint Line” was a railway line connecting Doncaster and Lincoln with March and Huntingdon in the eastern counties of England. It was owned jointly by the Great Northern Railway (GNR) and the Great Eastern Railway (GER).
Over the last decades of the Twentieth Century, the Joint Line declined and British Rail did their worst to simplify the route.
But in the 2010s, Network Rail developed the route into a by-pass for the East Coast Main Line between Werrington and Black Carr junctions via Lincoln.
- Trains are routed via Spalding, Sleaford, Lincoln, Saxilby and Gainsborough.
- There is no electrification.
- The route can handle two freight trains per hour.
- The route can handle 9 ft. 6 in containers.
- There is a passenger service between Doncaster and Peterborough via Lincoln.
- Self-powered trains like InterCity125s, Class 800 trains and Class 802 trains can use their diesel power to use the diversion.
- All-electric trains, like LNER’s Class 801 trains and Lumo’s Class 803 trains have no self-power, so can’t use the diversion.
- Black Carr junction and Lincoln is 35 miles.
- Werrington junction and Lincoln is 51.7 miles.
The January 2024 Edition of Modern Railways says that the diversion is approximately 90 miles or 145 kilometers.
It would appear that there are two simple solutions.
- Electrify a section through Lincoln, so that Lincoln is within 70 kilometres of the electrification at both Werrington and Black Carr junctions.
- Fit bigger batteries to the trains.
A combination of both solutions might be possible.
Extra Luggage Racks For Lumo
The title of this post, is the same as a small article in the November 2023 Edition of Modern Railways.
Thiese are the first two paragraphs.
Lumo is to remove eight seats from each of its five Class 803 EMUs to make way for additional luggage racks.
Two seats will be removed from four of the five vehicles in each unit to make space for the luggage racks. The move has required a variation of Lumo’s track access agreement, with the Office of Road and Rail, which as originally approved specified that each train must have 400 seats.
The article also states that Lumo has stopped carrying bikes and the bike areas are now used for luggage.
Batteries For Lumo?
The article finishes with this paragraph.
Lumo celebrated its second birthday in late October and was also set to mark the carriage of its two-millionth passenger. It is understood Lumo is interested in augmenting its fleet, such has been the success of the service; while many operators favour bi-mode units, Lumo is proud of its all-electric credentials so straight EMUs are still preferred, although the possibilities of including batteries which could power the trains may be pursued (the ‘803s’ have on-board batteries, but only to provide power to on-board systems if the electricity supply fails).
I find this development very interesting.
As an electrical engineer, I’ve always believed that the emergency batteries in the Class 803 trains are very similar to the traction batteries that Hitachi are developing for the Class 802 trains.
- One design of battery must surely save time and costs in design and testing.
- The difference between the two batteries might be only software and the total capacity of the lithium-ion cells.
- In service testing under real operating conditions can be carried out in Lumo’s Class 803 trains.
- Traction and emergency batteries would be interchangeable, so some operators, who didn’t always need traction but wanted emergency on-board power could be setup as required for the route.
If traction batteries gave the train a range of perhaps 15-20 miles, this might well be enough range, for the train to get through or to the next station, if there was to be an incident like catenary failure or a derailed freight train blocking the line. Obviously, Lumo will have records of all external failures that have affected them.
Consider.
- I have calculated that Peterborough and Doncaster via Lincoln is 88.5 miles.
- I also believe it is likely that in the future, there may be some electrification at Lincoln to charge battery-electric trains.
- Lincolnshire is flat.
Would it be possible for Lumo trains to use a single traction battery to take the Great Northern and Great Eastern Joint Line to get round engineering works on the East Coast Main Line?
What Length Of Trains Could Lumo Run?
In Ten-Car Hull Trains, I talked about Hull Trains running ten-car trains to Hull.
I would expect that all Lumo’s stops are possible with ten-car trains.
As the trains are all Plug-and-Play, Lumo could either run pairs of trains or perhaps lengthen all trains to any size between six and nine cars.
Could Lumo Piggy-Back An Aberdeen Service On An Edinburgh Train?
The line between Edinburgh and Ladybank is being electrified and Ladybank is just 91.4 miles South of Aberdeen.
- A pair of Class 803 trains could leave King’s Cross running as a ten-car formation.
- The leading train would be a Class 803 train equipped with a traction battery.
- The trailing train would be a Class 803 train equipped with the normal emergency battery.
- Aberdeen passengers would get in the leading train.
- The train would run as normal to Edinburgh.
- At Edinburgh the two trains would split with the leading train going on to Aberdeen and the trailing train getting ready to return to London.
The train going to Aberdeen would need sufficient battery range to cover the 91.4 miles to Aberdeen, where it would recharge to make the journey back to Ladybank, Edinburgh and the South.
What About Inverness?
Dunblane is the nearest electrified station to Inverness, but it is 146.2 miles away over a route with lots of steep climbs.
I doubt that a battery-electric train could handle that route.
Conclusions
Luggage seems to be getting more of a problem on trains and buses.
It does appear that a very innovative battery philosophy from Hitachi is emerging.
Lumo Carbon Data Shows Its Trains Are 22 Times Greener Than Flying
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Rail Advent.
These paragraphs detail how the figures were obtained.
To mark the second anniversary of its branding as ‘Lumo’, the operator commissioned consultancy firm Arup to provide an independent report about all direct emissions from its operations; emissions from the grid-supplied energy it uses; and other emissions in its supply chain.
Scope 1: Direct emissions from operations that are owned and controlled by Lumo;
Scope 2: Emissions from the use of grid-supplied electricity, heat, steam and/or cooling by Lumo;
Scope 3: All other emissions that occur in the value chain of Lumo.In the last two years, Lumo has carried over two million passengers. The figures reveal that, per passenger, emissions from a London-to-Edinburgh journey are twenty-two times the level for flying (149 kgCO2e) than for using Lumo (6.8kgCO2e).
I have a few thoughts.
Carbon Savings With LNER
LNER’s Class 801 trains are similar to Lumo’s Class 803 trains.
The main difference, is that the LNER have emergency diesel engines, whereas Lumo have emergency batteries to run the trains systems, if the catenary goes down.
So LNER on balance will generate a bit more carbon than Lumo.
But the difference will be marginal.
Carbon Savings With Avanti West Coast
Avanti’s Class 390 trains to Scotland, are all-electric, so there will be a carbon-saving.
Probably about the same as with LNER.
Avanti West Coast’s New Class 807 Trains
If the Class 807 trains were cars, they would be Lotuses.
- They are electric only and have no heavy diesel engines or traction batteries.
- They don’t even have emergency batteries for when the catenary fails.
- They have a redesigned nose. Is it more aerodynamic?
- The heavy tilt mechanism is history.
- As with all the other Hitachi high speed trains, they are capable of 125 mph, or 140 mph if the signalling permits.
These trains will undoubtedly have faster acceleration and deceleration and could probably knock minutes off the timings at all the stops.
Tucked away beside the Grand Union Sets Out Stirling Ambitions article in the December 2022 Edition of Modern Railways is a report on Avanti West Coast’s application for a second service between Euston and Liverpool.
This is said.
Avanti West Coast has applied for access rights for its second hourly Euston to Liverpool service, starting from December 2023, although a phased introduction of the new service is likely. This would make use of Avanti’s new fleet of 10×7-car Class 807 Hitachi EMUs, which are expected to enter service from Autumn 2023. The ‘807s’ would be deployed on the current hourly Liverpool service, on which a call at Liverpool South Parkway would be added. (provision is made for this in the December 2022 timetable.).
Pendolinos would then operate the second service each hour, calling at Lichfield Trent Valley and Tamworth.
A linespeed project is in progress to raise the permissible speed for non-tilting trains on the West Coast Main Line, and Avanti’s new Hitachi trains will take advantage of this.
I can’t wait to go to Liverpool in one of these trains.
Their carbon emissions should be in line with Lumo.
Avanti West Coast’s New Class 805 Trains
These are equivalent to the Class 802 trains, but with probably Class 807 train interiors and looks.
I wonder how long these trains will keep their diesel engines before battery power is the most affordable option.
Once they go battery-electric, their carbon emissions should be in line with Lumo.
Conclusion
I can’t see any other mantra than.
Electric good, diesel bad
Especially, if like most computers, it’s just plug and play.
Lumo Allows Passengers From London To Edinburgh To Pre-Order Meals
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Rail Advent.
I just tried it out and what I saw was a good start.
They even had gluten-free sandwiches and other items from Marks & Spencer.
You can access it here.
Lumo: Why The Latest Edinburgh-London Train Service Could Wean Us Off Planes And Roads
The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on The Conversation.
It is an interesting read and it appears that Lumo’s message is getting through.
London To Edinburgh On Lumo
Yesterday, I took the 10:45 Lumo service from King’s Cross to Edinburgh.
I took some pictures on the way.
I have split them into sepate topics.
Lumo’s Class 803 Train Arrives
Note.
- The train is in Platform 10 in the old suburban station.
- This has now been reduced to just two platforms.
- In the other platform is a Grand Central service to Bradford Interchange station.
At least it appears, that there could be space to reinstate a third platform, if it should prove necessary.
Seating On Lumo
Note.
- I didn’t get a seat with a proper window.
- The seat-back table is generously-sized.
- There is a light over the table.
- The luggage racks were well used.
- There is more than normal leg-room. My neighbour, who was taller than my 1.70 metres, also liked the leg-room.
Both of us, thought the seats were more comfortable than LNER.
I have a spine that curves outwards at the bottom and it often objects to train and car seats. But after four-and-a-half hours on Lumo, it wasn’t protesting.
York to Church Fenton Improvement Scheme
When the York To Church Fenton Improvement Scheme and the closely related Huddersfield To Westtown (Dewsbury) Upgrade are completed, the TransPennine route between Huddersfield and York will be fully-electrified.
These pictures show the electrification is underway.
York to Huddersfield will be over forty miles of electrified line, with a remaining gap of just eighteen miles to the electrification being installed between Stalybridge and Manchester Victoria.
Work At Reston Station
Reston station is being built North of Berwick-on-Tweed. I took these pictures as we passed through.
I describe the station in a post called A New Reston Station.
Arrival In Edinburgh
I took these pictures when we arrived in Edinburgh.
Note Edinburgh is not short of platforms that can take five- and ten-car trains.
These are a few other thoughts about the journey.
Non-Stop Between King’s Cross And Newcastle
It seemed to me, that a lot of passengers left the train at Newcastle.
- Times between King’s Cross And Newcastle are comparable betyween LNER and Lumo.
- Lumo is non-stop until Newcastle.
- Lumo is probably more affordable.
I can see Lumo picking up a lot of business on this leg.
Football At Newcastle
I have come across several Newcastle United season ticket holders in London.
Looking at Lumo’s full timetable, there are these two trains on a Saturday.
- A train leaves King’s Cross at 10:25 and arrives in Newcastle at 13:25.
- A train leaves Newcastle at 19:35 and arrives in King’s Cross at 22:29.
These could be ideal to see the match and get back to London.
Food
The full food service isn’t in operation yet, but we the trolley did come through twice.
Passenger Loading
Most seats were taken, as we left King’s Cross, but due to high number, who left at Newcastle, there were a few gaps as we ran between Newcastle and Edinburgh.
But then this is a shorter leg and perhaps travellers are more likely to drive.
I suspect that Lumo can’t wait to build up their service to the full five trains per day, as it does look like the demand is there.
Morpeth Station
There wasn’t many boarders and leavers at Morpeth station, but as services build up and travellers realise the system is there, will business increase?
Conclusion
I shall take another trip in the New Year, when the full service is implemented.
Calcutta Cup By Lumo
According to Scottish Rugby, the Culcutta Cup between Scotland and England next year is at Murrayfield on the 5th of February 2022.
I have just looked up services that day on Lumo’s web site.
- It would be possible to travel North on the 05:45 train, which arrives in Edinburgh at 10:06.
- After the match, there is a train South at 17:56, which arrives back in London at 22:29.
- Tickets are available at £45.50 both ways.
As Lumo could probably run both services with ten-car trains, that hold eight hundred passengers, this could earn ticket revenue for Lumo of £72,800.
Lumo – A View From Across The Pond
I have just read this guide to Lumo on a United States web site called NewsNation USA, which is entitled Lumo Trains: Cheaper London To Edinburgh Fares – What You Need To Know. The article is positive about the new train service.
It only misses out one important detail. Lumo have said, they will have a long booking window, which will surely appeal to travellers on the route from overseas, who are coming to the UK for a holiday and want to visit both cities.
COP26 And Lumo Branding At King’s Cross Station
I took these pictures as I passed through King’s Cross station today.
Note.
- Wilston Samuel Jackson was the first black train driver in the UK.
- Lumo seem to have taken over all of the branding at the station.
There was a generally upbeat atmosphere at the station.
The Anonymous Widower 