Rolls-Royce Completes Next Step On Its Journey To Decarbonising Business Aviation
The title of this post, is the same as that of this press release from Rolls-Royce.
This is the sub-heading.
Rolls-Royce today announces the successful completion of a series of tests with 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) on its latest generation of business aviation engines, the Pearl 15 and the Pearl 10X. The Pearl 15, the first member of the Pearl engine family, powers Bombardier’s Global 5500 and 6500 aircraft, while the Pearl 10X will power Dassault’s ultra-long-range flagship aircraft, the Falcon 10X.
These are the websites for the three aircraft, with number of passengers, typical cruise speed and range.
- Bombardier Global 5500 – 16 pax – Mach 0.85 – 5900 nm
- Bombardier Global 6500 – 17 pax – Mach 0.85 – 6600 nm
- Dassault Falcon 10X – 19 pax – Mach 0.925 – 7500 nm
This screenshot from the Dassault Falcon 10X web site shows the range from London.
Note that Buenos Aires, the Falkland Islands, Seattle, Seoul and Tokyo are all within range.
I have a few thoughts and observations.
Jet A-1 And 100% SAF
This paragraph from the press release describes how Rolls-Royce are testing the compatibility of Jet A-1 and 100% SAF.
As well as proving compatibility with 100% SAF another target of the test campaign was to run a back-to-back engine test with both Jet A-1 and SAF on the same Pearl 10X engine. The aim was to confirm further improvements in the environmental footprint when switching to SAF. The results from this first back-to-back engine emission test under standard certification conditions provides important correlations for the evaluation of future SAF within our environmental strategy.
Compatibility and back-to-back running is surely very important, as it could be many years before all airports can supply 100 % SAF for visiting jet aircraft.
The Fuels Used In The Tests And The Benefits
These two paragraphs from the press release describes the fuels used and the benefits..
The HEFA (Hydro-processed Esters and Fatty Acids) SAF was produced from waste-based sustainable feedstocks such as used cooking oils and waste fat. This fuel has the potential to significantly reduce net CO2 lifecycle emissions by about 80% compared to conventional jet fuel.
The back-to-back tests conducted with conventional fossil-based fuel and subsequently SAF also confirmed a cleaner combustion of the sustainable fuel, with significantly lower levels of non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM). In combination with the low NOx combustor technology of the Pearl 10X and its additive manufactured combustor tiles a reduction of all emissions was achieved.
Note.
- An eighty percent reduction in lifecycle emissions is not to be sneezed at.
- Cleaner combustion and low NOx emissions are very much bonuses.
- Additive manufacture is better known as 3D-printing and I’m not surprised that Rolls-Royce have embraced the technology.
As an engineer and retired light aircraft pilot, I suspect the tests have met Rolls-Royce’s objectives.
Moving To 100 % SAF
This is the final paragraph of the press release.
The tests demonstrated once again that Rolls-Royce’s current engine portfolio for large civil and business jet applications can operate with 100% SAF, laying the groundwork for moving this type of fuel towards certification. At present, SAF is only certified for blends of up to 50% with conventional jet fuel. By the end of 2023 Rolls-Royce will have proven that all its in-production Trent and business aviation engines are compatible with 100% SAF.
It must be a good selling point for aircraft equipped with Rolls-Royce engines, that the buyer knows that the aircraft can run on 100% SAF.
100 % SAF As An Airline Marketing Tool
It will be interesting to see how airlines use 100% SAF to sell tickets.
As an example, I can see routes like London and Scotland becoming very competitive.
- Avanti West Coast, LNER and Lumo already run all-electric trains to Edinburgh and Glasgow.
- The technology exists to decarbonise trains to Aberdeen and Inverness..
- Other open access operators could well move in to a lucrative market.
- The only way, that the airlines will be able to compete on emissions, would be to move to 100 % SAF.
There must be hundreds of routes like London and Scotland around the world.
100 % SAF And Business Jets
In A Class 319 Train, But Not As We Know It!, I told this tale.
I am reminded of a tale, that I heard from a former GEC manager.
He was involved in selling one of GEC’s Air Traffic Control radars to a Middle Eastern country.
The only working installation of the radar was at Prestwick in Scotland, so he arranged that the dignitaries and the sales team would be flown to Prestwick in GEC’s HS 125 business jet.
As they disembarked at Prestwick and walked to the terminal, the pilot called the GEC Manager over.
The pilot told him “The Scottish Highlands at this time of the year, are one of the most beautiful places in the world! Would you and your guests like a low-level tour on the way back? I can arrange it, if you say so!”
Despite knowing GEC’s draconian attitude to cost control he said yes.
The sale was clinched!
I also remember an article in Flight International about how JCB sold diggers.
- Dealers in a country like Greece would put together a party of prospective customers.
- The customers would then be flown to East Midlands Airport in JCB’s business jet, which is close to the JCB factory at Rocester.
- After a sales demonstration and a tour of the factory they would be flown home.
I once met a lady who had been one of JCB’s cabin staff and she told me it was a very successful sales technique.
I suspect that a business jet running on 100 % SAF would be an even better sales aid.
There are also increasing protests from the greens about business jets, which are seen as producing pollution and are only the toys of the rich and powerful.
Surely, if they were running on 100 % SAF, this would make business jets more acceptable.
100 % SAF And Niche Airlines
In the web site for the Falcon 10X, there is a section called Mission Flexibility, where this is said.
As large as it is, the Falcon 10X can still access typical airports serving business aviation as well as others with challenging approaches. The Falcon 10X will be London City-capable so that it can fly you straight into the heart of global finance. When you’re ready for rest and relaxation, the 10X can whisk you to out-of-the-way corners of the world.
British Airways used to run a service between London City Airport and New York.
- The route used 32-seat Airbus A-318 airliners.
- The flight stopped at Shannon for refuelling.
- It was business class only.
I suspect someone will think about running a similar London City Airport and New York service using a Falcon 10X.
- It has nineteen seats.
- It could do it in one hop.
- It could run on 100 % SAF.
- British Airways must have all the passenger data from the discontinued service.
- A Falcon 10X flies higher than a Boeing 767, Boeing 787 or an Airbus A350.
I have a feeling that flight time would be comparable or better to a flight between Heathrow and New York.
Conclusion
Rolls-Royce would appear to have the right strategy.
If I was going to New York in business class, I’d use it.
Could Train Services At Liverpool Lime Street Station Be Made Carbon-Free?
This map from OpenRailwayMap shows Liverpool Lime Street station.
Note.
- There are ten platforms, which are arranged in two sets of five.
- Electrified tracks are shown in red.
- The lilac track is the loop of the underground Wirral Line.
It would appear that the station is fully electrified.
Services To And From Liverpool Lime Street
These services currently run to and from Liverpool Lime Street station.
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston – 1 tph – Electric
- East Midlands Railway – Norwich – 1 tph – Diesel – Electrified to Liverpool South Parkway – 25.2 miles to electrification at Trafford Park.
- London Northwestern Railway – Birmingham New Street – 1 tph – Electric
- Northern – Blackpool North – 1 tph – Electric
- Northern – Manchester Airport – 1 tph – Electric
- Northern – Manchester Oxford Road – 1 tph – Diesel – Electrified to Liverpool South Parkway – 25.2 miles to electrification at Trafford Park.
- Northern – Warrington Central – 1 tph – Diesel – Electrified to Liverpool South Parkway – 12.7 miles to Warrington Central.
- Northern – Wigan North Western – 2 tph – Electric
- TransPennine Express – Cleethorpes – 1 tph – Electric – Electrified to Liverpool South Parkway – 25.2 miles to electrification at Trafford Park.
- TransPennine Express – Glasgow – 2 tpd – Electric
- TransPennine Express – Hull – 1 tph – Electric
- TransPennine Express – Newcastle – 1 tph – Electric
- Transport for Wales – Chester – 1 tph – Diesel – Electrified to Runcorn – 13.9 miles to Chester.
Note.
- tpd is trains per day
- tph is trains per hour
- There are nine electric services and four diesel services.
It looks to me, that by using battery-electric trains on the four diesel services, Liverpool Lime Street station can be made carbon-free.
Distances on battery power for each service would be as follows.
- East Midlands Railway – Norwich – Both ways – 25.2 miles between Liverpool South Parkway and Trafford Park with charging at both ends.
- Northern – Manchester Oxford Road – Both ways – 25.2 miles between Liverpool South Parkway and Trafford Park with charging at both ends.
- Northern – Warrington Central – Both ways – 12,7 miles between Liverpool South Parkway and Warrington Central with charging between Liverpool Lime Street and Liverpool South Parkway.
- Transport for Wales – Chester – Both ways – 13.9 miles between Runcorn and Chester with charging between Liverpool Lime Street and Runcorn.
Note the flexibility of battery-electric trains allows a variety of charging regimes.
Conclusion
Liverpool Lime Street Station can be made carbon-free
Will High Speed Two Lite Make Stafford An Important Station?
Stafford station is where the Trent Valley Line joins the West Coast Main Line and with the current proposals for High Speed Two, which I refer to as High Speed Two Light, it will also have to handle those High Speed Two services to and from Crewe.
Current Services Through Stafford Station
These are current services through Stafford station.
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Blackpool North via Birmingham – 2 tpd – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Birmingham – 5 tpd – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Edinburgh via Birmingham – 7 tpd – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Blackpool North via Trent Valley – 1 tpd – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Non-Stop
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Holyhead via Trent Valley – 8 tpd – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- CrossCountry – Birmingham New Street and Manchester via Wolverhampton and Stoke-on-Trent – 2 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.
- West Midlands – London Euston and Crewe via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- West Midlands – Birmingham New Street and Crewe via Wolverhampton and Stoke-on-Trent – 1 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent and Crewe
- West Midlands – Birmingham New Street and Liverpool Lime Street via Wolverhampton – 1 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
Note.
- tpd is trains per day.
- tph is trains per hour.
- Through Stafford station, there are totals of 23 tpd and 8 tph.
- Along the Trent Valley Line, there are totals of 9 tpd and 4 tph.
- North of Stafford on the West Coast Main Line, there are totals of 23 tpd and 4 tph.
- South of Stafford on the West Coast Main Line, there are totals of 14 tpd and 4 tph.
- Between Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent, there are totals of 3 tph.
Stafford is a very busy station.
Services have these frequencies from Stafford.
- Crewe – 21 tpd and 3 tph.
- Stoke-on-Trent – 3 tph.
- London Euston – 23 tpd and 4 tph.
- Wolverhampton – 13 tpd and 4 tph.
Could Stoke-on-Trent and Stafford do with a few extra services?
High Speed Two Services Through Stafford Station
This graphic shows High Speed Two services after Phase 2b is completed.
Note.
- Services shown in blue are run by High Speed Two Full Size trains.
- Services shown in yellow are run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
- Each of these trains will have a frequency of one tph.
These could be High Speed Two services through Stafford station, when High Speed Two Lite opens.
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street/Lancaster via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Macclesfield via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 3 tph
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Glasgow/Edinburgh via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 2 tph
- High Speed Two – Birmingham and Glasgow/Edinburgh via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph
- High Speed Two – Birmingham and Manchester Piccadilly via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 2 tph
Note.
- Through Stafford station, there are totals of 11 tph.
- Along the Trent Valley Line, there are totals of 11 tph.
- North of Stafford on the West Coast Main Line, there are totals of 11 tph.
- Between Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent, there are totals of 1 tph.
There are a lot of trains to squeeze through. But remember that High Speed Two signalling is designed to handle 18 tph.
Combined Services Through Stafford Station
These could be the combined current High Speed Two services through Stafford station, when High Speed Two Lite opens.
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Blackpool North via Birmingham – 2 tpd – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Birmingham – 5 tpd – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Edinburgh via Birmingham – 7 tpd – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Blackpool North via Trent Valley – 1 tpd – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Glasgow Central via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Non-Stop
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Holyhead via Trent Valley – 8 tpd – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- CrossCountry – Birmingham New Street and Manchester via Wolverhampton and Stoke-on-Trent – 2 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.
- West Midlands – London Euston and Crewe via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- West Midlands – Birmingham New Street and Crewe via Wolverhampton and Stoke-on-Trent – 1 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent and Crewe
- West Midlands – Birmingham New Street and Liverpool Lime Street via Wolverhampton – 1 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street/Lancaster via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Macclesfield via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 3 tph
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Glasgow/Edinburgh via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 2 tph
- High Speed Two – Birmingham and Glasgow/Edinburgh via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph
- High Speed Two – Birmingham and Manchester Piccadilly via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 2 tph
Note.
- Through Stafford station, there are totals of 23 tpd and 19 tph.
- Along the Trent Valley Line, there are totals of 9 tpd and 15 tph.
- North of Stafford on the West Coast Main Line, there are totals of 23 tpd and 15 tph.
- Between Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent, there are totals of 4 tph.
But there are duplicate services.
High Speed Two services to Liverpool, Manchester and Scotland, will replace Avanti West Coast services.
High Speed Two services between Birmingham and Manchester, will replace CrossCountry services.
Removing these current services gives.
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Blackpool North via Birmingham – 2 tpd – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Blackpool North via Trent Valley – 1 tpd – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- Avanti West Coast – London Euston and Holyhead via Trent Valley – 8 tpd – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- West Midlands – London Euston and Crewe via Trent Valley – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Crewe
- West Midlands – Birmingham New Street and Crewe via Wolverhampton and Stoke-on-Trent – 1 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent and Crewe
- West Midlands – Birmingham New Street and Liverpool Lime Street via Wolverhampton – 1 tph – Stops at Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street/Lancaster via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Crewe
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Macclesfield via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph – Stops at Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 3 tph
- High Speed Two – London Euston and Glasgow/Edinburgh via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 2 tph
- High Speed Two – Birmingham and Glasgow/Edinburgh via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 1 tph
- High Speed Two – Birmingham and Manchester Piccadilly via High Speed Two and Trent Valley Line – 2 tph
Note.
- Through Stafford station, there are totals of 11 tpd and 14 tph.
- Along the Trent Valley Line, there are totals of 11 tpd and 12 tph.
- North of Stafford on the West Coast Main Line, there are totals of 9 tpd and 12 tph.
- South of Stafford on the West Coast Main Line, there are totals of 2 tpd and 2 tph.
- Between Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent, there are totals of 2 tph.
With these frequencies, I suspect digital signalling will be needed.
Services have these frequencies from Stafford.
- Crewe – 11 tpd and 5 tph.
- Stoke-on-Trent – 2 tph.
- London Euston – 11 tpd and 4 tph.
- Wolverhampton – 3 tpd and 2 tph.
Note.
- Stoke-on-Trent needs more trains.
- There is virtually no trains on the West Coast Main Line to the South of Stafford.
- The frequencies indicate digital signalling will be needed.
On this brief look, I think that High Speed Two Lite will open up a lot of possibilities.
Could The High Speed Two Link Between Lichfield And Crewe Still Be Built?
The original plan for High Speed Two included two routes between Lichfield and Crewe.
This map clipped from the High Speed Two web site, shows the two routes.
Note.
- High Speed Two Phase 2a is shown in blue.
- High Speed Two Phase 2b is shown in orange.
- Crewe is in the North-West corner of the map, at the Southern end of the orange section.
- The junction at Lichfield is in the South-East corner of the map.
- The lighter blue route to the East, between the Lichfield junction and Crewe is the proposed new tracks of High Speed Two.
- The darker blue route to the West, between the Lichfield junction and Crewe is the existing route of the Trent Valley Line and the West Coast Main Line.
- The Trent Valley Line joins the West Coast Main Line at Stafford.
This second map clipped from the High Speed Two web site, shows the junction North of Lichfield, where High Speed Two connects to the Trent Valley Line through Stafford.
Note.
- High Speed Two runs North-South across the map.
- After the Junction by Fradley South, High Speed Two to Crewe and the North, is the branch to the East.
- The other branch connects to the Trent Valley Line at Handsacre junction.
- Trent Valley Line can be picked out North of Lichfield, where it passes through Lichfield Trent Valley station.
The Trent Valley Line is no Victorian double-track slow-speed bottleneck.
- The route between Rugby and Crewe is generally three or four tracks, with only one short stretch of double track, through Shugborough tunnel.
- The speed limit is generally 110 mph, with 90 mph at Shugborough.
- I wouldn’t be surprised to see Avanti West Coast’s Class 390 and Class 807 trains could be running at up to 140 mph on the route, if digital signalling were to be installed.
- This speed would probably be attained by High Speed Two trains.
London Euston and Stafford would only have under twenty miles of slower line and that could be 140 mph, so High Speed Two times on the route could be very fast.
Trains Between London And Stafford Before And After High Speed Two To Lichfield
Currently, Avanti West Coast trains take around one hour and seventeen minutes between London and Stafford.
The Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two gives these times between London and Stafford.
- Fastest time before High Speed Two – one hour and seventeen minutes.
- Time after Phase 2a of High Speed Two opens – fifty-five minutes.
Note.
- That is a time saving of twenty-two minutes.
- High Speed Two Trains will use the link between the junction at Lichfield and the Trent Valley Line.
- High Speed Two will also add eighteen trains per hour (tph) to the capacity between London and Lichfield.
This would seem to mean that any trains going to or through Stafford will be twenty-two minutes faster, if they use High Speed Two between London and Lichfield.
Trains Between London And Crewe Before And After High Speed Two To Crewe
Currently, Avanti West Coast trains take around one hour and thirty minutes between London and Crewe.
The Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two gives these times between London and Crewe.
- Fastest time before High Speed Two – one hour and thirty minutes.
- Time after Phase 2a of High Speed Two opens – fifty-six minutes.
Note.
- That is a time saving of thirty-four minutes.
- High Speed Two Trains will use the direct line between Lichfield and Crewe.
- High Speed Two will also add eighteen tph to the capacity between London and Crewe.
This would seem to mean that any trains going to or through Crewe will be thirty-four minutes faster, if they use High Speed Two between London and Crewe.
High Speed Two Between Lichfield And Crewe Only Saves An Extra Twelve Minutes
It appears that extending High Speed Two to Crewe only saves an extra twelve minutes.
But it will also have these benefits.
High Speed Two Full-Size trains will be able to run to Crewe.
High Speed Two will also add eighteen tph to the capacity between London and Crewe.
Savings From Scrapping High Speed Two Between Lichfield And Crewe
In addition to the savings of the scrapping of the line, I suspect that any modifications to Crewe station will be much simpler.
I wonder how much will be saved by not building High Speed Two to Crewe.
Could The High Speed Two Link Between Lichfield And Crewe Still Be Built?
This is the question I asked in the title.
We know the benefits of building High Speed Two and as time progresses we’ll know the costs and the disruption the building will cause with an increasing accuracy.
I also believe that even High Speed Two Lite will be a rip-roaring success, and other places will want their own High Speed Two service, which will need an increase in capacity North of Lichfield.
So there will come a point, when there is an overwhelming case to build the High Speed Two Link Between Lichfield and Crewe.
Because of that we must make sure, that any sales of land or properties, doesn’t compromise building the High Speed Two Link Between Lichfield and Crewe.
Conclusion
There will come a point, when the amount of traffic, will mean that it is worth building the High Speed Two Link Between Lichfield and Crewe.
My other conclusion is important and the route of the originally proposed High Speed Two Link Between Lichfield and Crewe, must not be compromised.
High Speed Two To Stoke-on-Trent
Some of you out there might be a bit worried after Rishi Sunak’s speech today, when he announced he’d cancelled High Speed Two, as you might be losing a future high speed service.
Currently, Stoke-on-Trent is served by two trains per hour (tph), that run between London and Manchester Piccadilly.
- One train calls at Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Macclesfield and Stockport, and takes about 1:33 to Stoke and 2:12 to Manchester Piccadilly.
- The other calls at Nuneaton and Stockport, and takes about 1:30 to Stoke and 2:06 to Manchester Piccadilly.
- Trains are both 9-car and 11-car Class 390 trains or Pendolinos.
- All trains go via Colwich.
This map shows the Colwich, Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.
Note.
- Electrified lines are shown in red.
- The line across the South-West corner of the map is the West Coast Main Line.
- Stafford is the Northern end of the Trent Valley Line, which runs East along the bottom of the map.
- The Trent Valley Line, which is a by-pass of the West Coast Main Line, rejoins that line at Rugby.
- Stoke-on-Trent is in the North-West corner of the map.
- Colwich is in the South-East corner of the map and is marked by a blue arrow.
- There are two routes between Stone-on-Trent and Colwich; the more-direct Northern route and a Southern route via Stafford.
The current services between London and Stoke-on-Trent use the more-direct Northern route, although they can take the Southern route via Stafford.
This must mean that as Stoke-on-Trent services take the Northern route, there are more paths through Stafford for West Coast Main Line services to and from Liverpool, Manchester and Scotland.
This graphic shows High Speed Two services after Phase 2b is completed.
Note.
- Services shown in blue are run by High Speed Two Full Size trains.
- Services shown in yellow are run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
- Each of these trains will have a frequency of one tph.
The third High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train from the left is a London and Macclesfield service, which will stop at Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent, has the following timings from London.
- Stafford – 0:55 – 22 minutes faster
- Stoke-on-Trent – 1:10 – 14 minutes faster
- Macclesfield – 1:30 – 11 minutes faster
I have a few thoughts and questions.
How Does This High Speed Two Service Get To And From London?
The service goes through Stafford and then takes the Trent Valley Line to the South.
This map clipped from the HS2 site, shows the original layout of HS2 to the North and East of Lichfield.
Note.
- High Speed Two runs North-South across the map.
- After the Junction by Fradley South, the now-scrapped High Speed Two to Crewe and the North, is the branch to the East.
- The other branch connects to the Trent Valley Line, which can be picked out North of Lichfield, where it passes through Lichfield Trent Valley station.
- The Trent Valley Line goes North-West through Colwich to Stafford, where the line rejoins the West Coast Main Line.
As the Eastern branch North from the junction has been scrapped, all trains between London and North would go via this link between High Speed Two at Lichfield and Trent Valley Line through Stafford.
Can The Current Trains and the High Speed Two Classic-Compatible Trains Share Tracks?
The answer will be yes, as the High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains have been designed to share tracks with existing trains.
Full digital signalling may be needed to enable 140 mph running and more paths on the classic lines.
Will There Be A Second High Speed Two Service To Stoke-On-Trent And Stafford?
One of the problems with High Speed Two is that it won’t call at stations in the Midlands that are currently served by Avanti West Coast.
- Currently, stations with an Avanti call are Milton Keynes Central, Nuneaton and Rugby.
- Avanti’s second Liverpool service will call at Tamworth and Lichfield Trent Valley.
- In the June 2023 Edition of Modern Railways, Avanti’s Managing Director; Andy Mellors talks about the benefits the company accrues from stopping in the Midlands.
I believe that after High Speed Two opens, that a semi-fast service could run between London and Manchester.
- It would be run by a Class 390 train or Pendolino.
- It would use the route currently used by Manchester services via Stoke-on-Trent.
- At the Southern end, it would terminate in London Euston.
- It could call at Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Nuneaton, Lichfield Trent Valley, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and Stockport.
- ,Station stops would be arranged as to need.
- A one stop service to London takes 90 minutes from Stoke-on-Trent, with a two-stopper taking 93 minutes, so does each stop with a Pendolino add three minutes to the journey time?
Such a service could be developed to give stations like Stoke-on-Trent a second service to London.
The Lines Around Stafford
This map from OpenRailwayMap shows the lines around Stafford.
Note.
- Red lines are electrified.
- Black Lines are not.
- Stafford is marked by the blue arrow.
Selective electrification could probably improve connectivity by a large margin.
This Google map shows Stafford station.
I feel that Stafford station could be developed into a major interchange between High Speed Two and local services.
Conclusion
It looks to me that Stoke-on-Trent will be well-served by High Speed Two.
See Also
Could High Speed Two Finish At Lichfield?
High Speed Two To Holyhead
Rishi Sunak has just announced that the North Wales Main Line will be electrified, along with the cancellation of further phases of High Speed Two.
I have written about this topic before in Could High Speed Two Serve Holyhead?.
In that post, I started with this question and answer.
Why?
It could be a way to create a zero- or low-carbon route between the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
In Could High Speed Two Finish At Lichfield?, I discussed, what might happen if the Birmingham to Manchester leg of High Speed Two were to be scrapped.
This was my main conclusion.
I strongly believe that an upgraded Trent Valley Line linked to a shortened High Speed Two at Lichfield could improve journey times between London, Birmingham and the North.
As the current Holyhead services will pass this junction between the Trent Valley Line and High Speed Two, there is no reason, why they couldn’t take High Speed Two to and from London, if the service was run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible Trains.
These are further thoughts.
Timings
These would be the times in hours:minutes.
- Bangor – 2:42
- Chester – 1:28
- Holyhead – 3:10
- Llandudno Junction – 2:24
Currently, Holyhead is three hours and forty-five minutes.
Would the Electrification Be Full Or Partial Between Crewe And Holyhead?
This question will be increasingly asked about electrification.
Consider.
- CAF, Hitachi, Siemens and Stadler are all developing battery-electric technology for trains.
- The UK’s first battery-electric train service goes into service tomorrow between Liverpool and Headbolt Lane station.
- Freight locomotives are increasingly being ordered with both electric and diesel power.
- Some of the castles, countryside and other monuments wouldn’t be enhanced, with lots of overhead electrification.
I think it is likely, that electrification will increasingly have gaps for visual, technical or heritage reasons.
Electrification of the North Wales Coast Line with other small improvements could probably reduce the journey time between London and Holyhead to around three hours.
Would There Be Enough Paths On The Trent Valley Line And High Speed Two?
This graphic shows High Speed Two services after Phase 2b is completed.
Note.
- Services shown in blue are run by High Speed Two Full Size trains.
- Services shown in yellow are run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
- There are a total of 23 train paths of which eleven would need to go along the Trent Valley Line.
- The three London-Manchester services and the two Birmingham-Manchester services would have to be run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
- The second Liverpool train is only a single train, but it could be a pair, that split at Crewe, with one train going to Liverpool and the other to Chester and North Wales.
- All the Avanti West Coast services, currently using the Trent Valley Line would probably be replaced by High Speed Two services.
There would have to be a bit of reorganising, but I suspect an hourly path could be found for a train between London and Holyhead.
A Fast Green Route To The Emerald Isle
Electrification of the North Wales Coast Line with other small improvements could probably reduce the journey time between London and Holyhead to around three hours.
This service could be paired with a fast zero-carbon ferry to the island of Ireland?
Conclusion
I am fairly sure that an HS2 service to Holyhead could be run, once the North Wales Coast Line is electrified.
See Also
Could High Speed Two Finish At Lichfield?
Could High Speed Two Finish At Lichfield?
I wrote this post before Rishi Sunak made his speech.
I went to Manchester and Liverpool yesterday by train.
I took the 10:33 from Euston and this a summary of my journey.
- The train left Euston half a minute early.
- It arrived at Stafford (133.5 miles) at 11:50 and left at 11:52.
- It arrived at Crewe (158.0 miles) at 12:08 and left at 12.10.
- It arrived at Wilmslow (176.9 miles) at 12:25 and left at 12:27.
- It arrived at Stockport (183.0 miles) at 12:35 and left at 12:37.
- It arrived in Manchester Piccadilly (188.9 miles) at 12:46.
- It was two minutes late into Manchester and more or less on time at the other stops.
Note.
- The route was via the Trent Valley Line and the train passed through Nuneaton, Tamworth, Lichfield Trent Valley, Colwich and Stafford.
- Euston and Manchester had been timetabled at two hours and eleven minutes.
- This is an average speed of 86.5 mph.
- The Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two gives the fastest time before High Speed Two opens as one hour and fifty-four minutes.
- This will be an average speed of 99.4 mph.
Coming home, I took the 18:48 from Liverpool Lime Street and this a summary of my journey.
- The train left Liverpool on time.
- It arrived at Runcorn (13.2 miles) at 18:58 and left at 19:02.
- It arrived at Crewe (35.8 miles) at 19:26 and left at 19:28.
- It arrived at Milton Keynes (143.8 miles) at 20:27 and left at 20:29.
- It arrived in Euston (183.6 miles) at 21:00.
- It was five minutes late into Crewe and two minutes early at Euston.
Note.
- The route was via the Trent Valley Line and the train passed through Stafford, Colwich, Lichfield Trent Valley, Tamworth and Nuneaton.
- Liverpool and Euston had been timetabled at two hours and twenty minutes.
- This is an average speed of 78.7 mph.
- The Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two gives the fastest time before High Speed Two opens as two hours and three minutes.
- This will be an average speed of 89.6 mph.
This map clipped from the High Speed Two web site, shows the junction North of Lichfield, where High Speed Two connects to the Trent Valley Line through Stafford.
Note.
- High Speed Two runs North-South across the map.
- After the Junction by Fradley South, High Speed Two to Crewe and the North, is the branch to the East.
- The other branch connects to the Trent Valley Line at Handsacre junction.
- Trent Valley Line can be picked out North of Lichfield, where it passes through Lichfield Trent Valley station.
The Trent Valley Line is no Victorian double-track slow-speed bottleneck.
- The route between Rugby and Crewe is generally three or four tracks, with only one short stretch of double track, through Shugborough tunnel.
- The speed limit is generally 110 mph, with 90 mph at Shugborough.
- I wouldn’t be surprised to see Avanti West Coast’s Class 390 and Class 807 trains could be running at up to 140 mph on the route, if digital signalling were to be installed.
- This speed would probably be attained by High Speed Two trains.
London Euston and Stafford would only have under twenty miles of slower line and that could be 140 mph, so High Speed Two times on the route could be very fast.
This second map clipped from the High Speed Two web site, shows between High Speed Two’s two Birmingham stations and Lichfield.
Note.
- High Speed Two Phases 1 and 2a are shown in blue.
- High Speed Two Phase 2b is shown in orange.
- At the top of the map, can be seen the junction, where High Speed Two to the North splits, that was shown in the previous map.
- The large blue dot in the West at the bottom of the map, is Birmingham Curzon Street station.
- The other large blue dot is Birmingham International station.
- The three sections of High Speed Two to London, Birmingham Curzon Street and the North meet at a triangular junction between the two Birmingham stations.
- High Speed Two to the East Midlands, branches off to the East North of the triangular junction.
This third map clipped from the High Speed Two web site, shows between Lichfield and Crewe.
Note.
- High Speed Two Phase 2a is shown in blue.
- High Speed Two Phase 2b is shown in orange.
- Crewe is in the North-West corner of the map, where at the South end of the orange section.
- The junction at Lichfield is in the South-East corner of the map.
- The lighter blue route to the East, between the Lichfield junction and Crewe is the new tracks of High Speed Two.
- The darker blue route to the West, between the Lichfield junction and Crewe is the existing route of the Trent Valley Line and the West Coast Main Line.
- The Trent Valley Line joins the West Coast Main Line at Stafford.
These are a few thoughts and questions.
How Will Trains Go Between Birmingham Curzon Street And London?
Trains will use the triangular junction shown in the second map to go between the two Birmingham stations and then head South,
How Will Trains Go Between Birmingham Curzon Street And The North?
Trains will use the triangular junction shown in the second map to turn North and then take one of the two routes to the North; High Speed Two or Trent Valley Line/West Coast Main Line.
How Will Trains Go Between Birmingham Curzon Street And The North If High Speed Two Between Birmingham And The North Is Scrapped?
If High Speed Two is scrapped from the Northern point of the triangular junction to the North, there will be no way that trains could go North from Birmingham Curzon Street.
- The overcrowded Birmingham New Street station will still be the link to the North of England and Scotland for Birmingham.
- How would trains connect to the future branch to East Midlands Parkway, which connects just North of the triangular junction?
I suspect that a short stub will be built North of the triangular junction to connect to the Trent Valley Line, which is currently, the main route of trains between London and the North through the West Midlands, for trains that don’t go through Birmingham.
Trains Between London And Stafford
Currently, Avanti West Coast trains take around one hour and seventeen minutes between London and Stafford.
The Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two gives these times between London and Stafford.
- Fastest time before High Speed Two – one hour and seventeen minutes.
- Time after Phase 2a of High Speed Two opens – fifty-five minutes.
Note.
That is a time saving of twenty-two minutes.
High Speed Two Trains will use the link between the junction at Lichfield and the Trent Valley Line.
How Many Avanti West Coast Services Use The Trent Valley Line?
These trains use the Trent Valley Line.
- London and Holyhead – 8 tpd
- London and Liverpool Lime Street – 1 tph, which is planned to increase to 2 tph
- London and Manchester Piccadilly – 2 tph
- London and Blackpool North – 1 tpd
- London and Glasgow – 1 tph
Note.
- tpd is trains per day
- tph is trains per hour
This is roughly six tph.
Would It Be Possible To Finish High Speed Two At The Lichfield Junction And Connect It To The Trent Valley Line?
This is a repeat of the first map.
Note.
- High Speed Two runs North-South across the map.
- After the Junction by Fradley South, High Speed Two to Crewe and the North, is the branch to the East.
- The other branch connects to the Trent Valley Line at Handsacre junction.
- Trent Valley Line can be picked out North of Lichfield, where it passes through Lichfield Trent Valley station.
If the Eastern branch North from the junction were to be scrapped, all trains between London and North would go via Stafford.
As all these tracks are planned and must be at an advanced stage, that is ready for construction, I feel the route would be feasible.
It would have these benefits.
- Birmingham Curzon Street services and the North-West of England and the West of Scotland would be possible.
- Services between London and Stafford will be twenty-two minutes faster, than they are now.
- Time savings will also apply to services from London to Liverpool, Macclesfield, Manchester, Stoke-on-Trent and all stations between Crewe and Glasgow.
The capacity of the Trent Valley Line would be the limiting factor.
Time Savings Between Crewe And Preston
According to the Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two, after Phase 2a of High Speed Two opens, these will be the fastest times to Crewe and Preston.
- Crewe – 0:56
- Preston 1:18
Note.
- The fastest Preston service runs non-stop between Euston and Preston.
- Crewe and Preston are 51 miles apart.
A time of 22 minutes between Crewe and Preston, means the average speed is 139 mph.
Does this mean that High Speed Two will improve between Crewe and Preston to allow 140 mph non-stop running?
But 22 minutes is certainly an improvement on the current time between Crewe and Preston for Scottish trains of 40 minutes.
Time Savings Between Crewe And Liverpool
The upgrading of the line between might save another couple of minutes between Crewe and Weaver junction.
What Times Would Be Possible Via High Speed Two And The Trent Valley Line?
These times are based on the following.
- The twenty-two minute saving to Stafford, as all High Speed Two services to the North-West of England and the West of Scotland will go via Phase 1 of High Speed Two and Stafford.
- A saving of eighteen minutes will be applied to Scottish services because of savings between Crewe and Preston.
This would give these times in hours:minutes.
- Blackpool – 2:10
- Carlisle – 2:35
- Chester – 1:28
- Crewe – 1:08
- Glasgow – 3:50
- Holyhead – 3:10
- Lancaster – 2:03
- Liverpool Lime Street – 1:41
- Llandudno Junction – 2:24
- Macclesfield – 1:30
- Manchester Piccadilly via Crewe – 1:52
- Oxenholme – 1:54
- Preston – 1:46
- Runcorn 1:31
- Stafford – 0:55
- Stockport – 1:35
- Stoke-on-Trent – 1:10
- Warrington – 1:22
- Wigan 1:33
- Wilmslow – 1:25
I have calculated extra services to Blackpool and North Wales.
Adding The Lichfield And Crewe Section
Consider.
- My calculations indicate that London and Crewe will take 1:08.
- The Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two, after Phase 2a of High Speed Two opens, gives the fastest time to Crewe as 0:56.
This indicates that adding the section of High Speed Two between Lichfield and Crewe will save a further twelve minutes.
Conclusion
I strongly believe that an upgraded Trent Valley Line linked to a shortened High Speed Two at Lichfield could improve journey times between London, Birmingham and the North.
There are certainly savings to be made.
See Also
High Speed Two To Crewe
There has been a lot of speculation about the Northern end of High Speed Two, so I might as well add sort out a few facts and add a bit of speculation of my own.
Sample Times Between London And Crewe
These are selected times from the 27th September 2023.
- 07:30 – Glasgow Non-Stop – 1:29
- 07:33 – Manchester Piccadilly – 1:37 – Stops at Stafford
- 07:43 – Liverpool Lime Street – 1:40 – Stops at Milton Keynes
- 08:30 – Glasgow Non-Stop – 1:29
- 08:33 – Manchester Piccadilly – 1:37 – Stops at Stafford
- 08:43 – Liverpool Lime Street – 1:40 – Stops at Milton Keynes
- 09:02 – Holyhead – 1:40 – Stop at Stafford
- 15:02 – Chester – 1:40 – Stops at Tamworth, Lichfield Trent Valley and Stafford
Note.
- The 07:30 and 08:30 Glasgow services appears to be pathed for one of the Class 390 Pendolino electric trains and were run by Pendolinos.
- The 07:33 and 08:33 Manchester services appears to be pathed for one of the Pendolino electric trains and were run by Pendolinos.
- The 07:43 and 08:43 Liverpool services appears to be pathed for one of the new Class 807 electric trains, but were run by Pendolinos.
- The 15:02 Chester service appears to be pathed for one of the new Class 805 bi-mode trains.
- All services except the Glasgow services stop at Crewe.
- As London Euston and Crewe is 158 miles, the non-stop Glasgow services average 107 mph, the one-stop Manchester service averages 98 mph and the one-stop Liverpool service averages 95 mph.
I have some further thoughts.
How Long Does A Stop Take?
I’ve looked at some stops of Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester services
Crewe
Looking at timings between Weaver Junction and Norton Bridge, I have found the following times.
- Glasgow-Euston – 23 minutes
- Liverpool-Euston – 28 minutes
Note.
- Manchester services don’t go through Weaver Junction.
- Weaver Junction and Norton Bridge are respectively North and South of Crewe.
- The Liverpool service stops at Crewe, where it has a dwell time of two minutes.
- The Glasgow service goes straight through Crewe.
The Crewe stop takes a total of 5 minutes of which 3 minutes are deceleration and acceleration to and from linespeed.
Stafford
Looking at timings between Norton Bridge and Colwich, I have found the following times.
- Glasgow-Euston – 7½ minutes
- Liverpool-Euston – 7½ minutes
- Manchester -Euston – 14 minutes
Note.
- Norton Bridge and Colwich are respectively North and South of Stafford.
- The Manchester service stops at Stafford, where it has a dwell time of two minutes.
- The Glasgow and Liverpool services go straight through Stafford.
The Stafford stop takes a total of 6½ minutes of which 4½ minutes are deceleration and acceleration to and from linespeed.
Milton Keynes
Looking at timings between Weedon and Bletchley, I have found the following times.
- Glasgow-Euston – 11½ minutes
- Liverpool-Euston – 16 minutes
- Manchester -Euston – 12½ minutes
Note.
- Weedon and Bletchley are respectively North and South of Milton Keynes.
- The Liverpool service stops at Milton Keynes, where it has a dwell time of one minute.
- The Glasgow and Manchester services go straight through Milton Keynes.
The Milton Keynes stop takes a total of 4 minutes of which 3 minutes are deceleration and acceleration to and from linespeed.
Average Speeds Between Crewe And London
London Ruston and Crewe is 158 miles according to Real Time Trains.
So what would times would various average speeds deliver?
- 100 mph – 95 minutes
- 110 mph – 86 minutes
- 120 mph – 79 minutes
- 125 mph – 76 minutes
- 130 mph – 73 minutes
- 140 mph – 68 minutes
Obviously, any average speed with over 125 mph running, will need full digital signalling.
Liverpool And London In Two Hours
Tucked away beside the Grand Union Sets Out Stirling Ambitions article in the December 2022 Edition of Modern Railways is a report on Avanti West Coast’s application for a second service between Euston and Liverpool.
This is said.
Avanti West Coast has applied for access rights for its second hourly Euston to Liverpool service, starting from December 2023, although a phased introduction of the new service is likely. This would make use of Avanti’s new fleet of 10×7-car Class 807 Hitachi EMUs, which are expected to enter service from Autumn 2023. The ‘807s’ would be deployed on the current hourly Liverpool service, on which a call at Liverpool South Parkway would be added. (provision is made for this in the December 2022 timetable.).
Pendolinos would then operate the second service each hour, calling at Lichfield Trent Valley and Tamworth.
A linespeed project is in progress to raise the permissible speed for non-tilting trains on the West Coast Main Line, and Avanti’s new Hitachi trains will take advantage of this.
I’ll take a quick look at the Crewe and Runcorn section.
- It is 22.5 miles.
- It takes 19 minutes.
- That is an average speed of 71 mph.
- Crewe and Weaver Junction has a speed limit of at least 110 mph
- Runcorn and Weaver Junction has a speed limit of at least 90 mph for most of the way.
- If with their superior performance, the new Class 807 trains could average 90 mph between Crewe and Runcorn, they would take 15 minutes.
- Achieving the 90 mph average may need a bit of track realignment and some signaling changes.
The four minutes saved would be enough to handle the extra stop at Liverpool South Parkway.
Consider.
- Currently, Pendolino trains do Liverpool and Crewe in 38 minutes, which includes the stop at Runcorn.
- My calculation with the Class 807 trains, shows that with a bit of extra signalling, the new trains could do Liverpool and Crewe in 38 minutes with the two stops.
- The stop at Crewe will subtract 5 minutes from the base journey time.
- The stop at Milton Keynes will subtract 4 minutes from the base journey time.
This means the base journey time between Crewe and London will be 73 minutes.
This would indicate that the trains would be running at 130 mph to achieve the two hours.
But there are five accelerations and five decelerations on a journey between London and Liverpool and the new Class 807 trains are the Lotuses of Hitachi’s family of AT-300 trains; lightweight and powerful.
Suppose they could save thirty seconds for each acceleration and deceleration.
The base journey time between Crewe and London will be 78 minutes.
This would indicate that the trains would be running at over 120 mph to achieve the two hours.
I certainly feel, that Liverpool and London in two hours is certainly possible using the new Class 807 trains.
London and Crewe with two stops would be times at one hour and twelve minutes.
But what about the Pendolinos?
- My last return trip from Liverpool did a practice call at Liverpool South Parkway and still arrived in London a few minutes early.
- The Pendolinos will still benefit from any improvements, between Crewe and Runcorn, which could reduce the Liverpool and Crewe time from 38 minutes to 34 minutes.
- The stop at Crewe will subtract 5 minutes from the base journey time.
- The stops at Lichfield Trent Valley and Tamworth will both subtract 4 minutes from the base journey time.
This means the base journey time between Crewe and London will be 73 minutes, which is the same as for the Class 807 trains.
This would indicate that the trains would be running at 130 mph to achieve the two hours.
Could this average speed be achieved by the selective application of full digital signalling, perhaps on the Trent Valley Line?
But it does appear to me, that the Pendolinos can get very close to two hours between London and Liverpool.
London and Crewe with three stops would be times at one hour and sixteen minutes.
Crewe And London Non-Stop
Consider.
- Pendolinos between London and Glasgow, go non-stop between London and Crewe.
- I have calculated that Pendolinos between London and Liverpool, will take one hour and sixteen minutes with three stops between London and Crewe.
- The three stops take a total of thirteen minutes.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see London and Glasgow Pendolinos take one hour and three minutes between London and Crewe.
This would knock twenty-six minutes off journey times between London and Glasgow.
Conclusion
I believe that with relatively minor improvements on the West Coast Main Line and the Liverpool branch, the following can be achieved.
- Liverpool and London can be around two hours with new Class 807 trains or Pendolinos.
- Liverpool and London services can increase their calls in the Midlands.
- London and Glasgow services can be nearly half-an-hour faster.
- The fastest London and Crewe services could be just over an hour using Pendolinos.
I also believe that the only serious infrastructure needed is some track realignment and some updated signalling.
See Also
Could High Speed Two Finish At Lichfield?
The Diesel Power Of The Class 805 Trains
Avanti West Coast’s new Class 805 trains, will probably start running between London Euston and Chester, Shrewsbury and North Wales before the end of the year.
But will they have the 560 kW engines of the Class 800 trains or the the 700 kW engines of the Class 802 trains?
On this page of Eversholt Rail’s web site, there is a detailed specification for a Class 802 train.
It says these trains have a top speed of 110 mph on diesel.
But it also says this about the design of the trains.
They have been designed to meet the operational requirements of the West of England route and are used on services out of London Paddington to Plymouth and Penzance.
The class 802 is almost identical to the class 800, the differences are that class 802s have a higher rated engine output to tackle the gradients through Devon and Cornwall, and a superior diesel range to provide the IET experience to the wider Greater Western Network, they also have a larger brake resistor which reduces brake pad usage and requires less maintenance.
Wikipedia also says that these are the diesel engine sizes in the three main classes of these Hitachi AT 300 trains.
- Class 800 train – 560 kW – Three engines for five cars
- Class 801 train – 560 kW – One emergency engine for five cars
- Class 802 train – 700 kW – Three engines for five cars
- Class 810 train – 735 kW – Four engines for five cars
All these four trains have similar bodyshells and running gear, so I suspect that to run at similar cruising speeds, similar amounts of power will be needed.
If the Class 802 train has a speed of 110 mph on diesel, then a rough estimate of the cruising speed of a train with the 560 kW engines can be estimated by doing this simple calculation. Note that air resistance is proportional to the square of the speed.
Square root (110*110 *560/700) = 98.4 mph
I have looked on OpenRailwayMap at all the tracks to the West of Wolverhampton, where these trains will run and the highest maximum operating speed I can find is 90 mph.
As the Class 805 trains have a reprofiled nose, which could be more aerodynamic, they may be able to cruise at 90 mph.
I believe that a train with three 560 kW engines will suit Avanti West Coast purposes well.
What Is The Operating Speed Of The Class 810 trains?
I can use a similar calculation to estimate the maximum operating speed of the Class 810 trains, that will operate on the Midland Main Line.
Consider.
- The Class 802 train has a total power of 2100 kW
- The Class 810 train has a total power of 2940 kW
- The Class 810 train with only three working engines has a total power of 2205 kW
I can estimate the cruising speed by doing this simple calculation, which is similar to the one for the Class 805 train.
Square root (110*110 *2940/2100) = 130 mph
I can also do it for a train running on three engines.
Square root (110*110 *2205/2100) = 113 mph
I looks to me, that the following is possible.
- As Class 810 trains can achieve the maximum speed of 125 mph on both diesel and electric power, the timetable is independent of the progress of the electrification.
- If the 125 mph sections are ignored, the fastest sections of line have a maximum speed of 110 mph, which could be possible on three engines.
- North of the electrification, where the maximum speed is only 110 mph, engines could be selectively rested to avoid overheating.
Four engines give a lot of interesting options.
I can’t wait to take a ride.
Could The Class 810 Trains Be Fitted With Batteries?
When, the electrification reaches Market Harborough station, there will be no 125 mph sections on the Midland Main Line, which are not electrified.
This Hitachi infographic shows the Hitachi Intercity Tri-Mode Battery Train.
A Class 810 version of this train would have three diesel engines and one battery pack.
- It would have all the features of the infographic.
- My calculations give it a top speed of 113 mph on a route, where the maximum speed North of the electrification is 110 mph.
- I also suspect, it could bridge any small gaps in the electrification.
It would have the very positive effects of saving fuel and cutting pollution in stations.
High Speed Two To Manchester
There has been a lot of speculation about the Northern end of High Speed Two, so I might as well add sort out a few facts and add a bit of speculation of my own.
The Current Manchester Piccadilly Services
Currently, there are three trains per hour (tph) between London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly.
The services stop as follows.
- Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and Stockport
- Nuneaton, Stoke-on-Trent and Stockport
- Stafford, Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport
Note.
- One service goes via Crewe.
- Two services go via Stoke-on-Trent.
- All services go via Stockport.
- A London and Manchester Piccadilly train could go via Milton Keynes Central, Nuneaton, Rugby, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and Stockport.
- A London and Manchester Piccadilly train could go via Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport.
The two trains detailed would mean that Manchester wouldn’t lose any connectivity.
I would expect that Manchester Piccadilly needs at least three tph to and from London.
This graphic shows High Speed Two services after Phase 2b is completed.
Note.
- Services shown in blue are run by High Speed Two Full Size trains.
- Services shown in yellow are run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
- Full Size Services will only run to Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly after Phase 2b is completed to Manchester Piccadilly.
- Classic-Compatible Services will be able to run to to Manchester Piccadilly after Phase 2a is completed.
- Two London and Manchester Piccadilly trains will call at just Old Oak Common and Manchester Airport.
- A third London and Manchester Piccadilly train will call at Old Oak Common, Birmingham International and Manchester Airport.
- Two Birmingham Curzon Street and Manchester Piccadilly trains will call at just Manchester Airport.
- Despite Wilmslow and Stockport being shown in the list of stations on the left hand side of the graphic, no High Speed Two services appear to call at the two stations.
The graphic of High Speed Two services also shows these Full-Size services to Manchester Piccadilly.
- Three tph to London Euston
- Two tph to Birmingham Curzon Street
Some or all of these services will surely be run by High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
What services will run to Manchester between the opening of Phase 2a and the opening of Phase 2b?
I will now give some possibilities for services.
London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Crewe, Wilmslow And Stockport
I shall look at the 07:33 train to Manchester Piccadilly on the 20th September 2023.
- It was a service via Stafford, Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport
- It was a nine-car Class 390 train or Pendolino, which left on time.
- Euston and Manchester Piccadilly are 188.9 miles apart.
- The train called at Crewe at 09:08 and left at 09:10.
- The average speed between London Euston and Crewe is 70.7 mph.
- The train arrived in Manchester Piccadilly on time at 09:44.
- The journey took two hours and 11 minutes
- The average speed was 86.5 mph.
- The Crewe and Manchester Piccadilly section is 30.9 miles and the train is scheduled to take 34 minutes.
- The average speed between Crewe and Manchester Piccadilly is 54.5 mph.
- The example train slows past Crewe because of two stops at Wilmslow and Stockport.
When Phase 2a of High Speed Two opens a replacement for this service via Crewe, could operate as follows.
- It could use High Speed Two between and Crewe.
- It could use the current route between Crewe and Manchester Piccadilly.
- It would probably use a 200 metre long High Speed Two Classic-Compatible trains.
- I wouldn’t be surprised, that the current Pendolino service between Euston and Manchester Piccadilly via Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport was retired.
- The new High Speed Two service could take over the path currently used by the current Pendolino service, between Crewe and Manchester Piccadilly.
- The train could stop at Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport as required.
- If it stopped at Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport, it would restore some of the connectivity to smaller places.
According to the Wikipedia entry for High Speed Two, these will be the timings.
- London Euston and Crewe – 56 minutes
- London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly Phase 2a – One hour and 30 minutes
- London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly Phase 2b – One hour and 11 minutes
From these figures and the times of the 07:33, I can deduce these journey times for trains via Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport.
- Currently, Crewe and Manchester Piccadilly takes 34 minutes.
- High Speed Two after Phase 2a will also take 34 minutes.
I am surprised that sectional timings on this section of the West Coast Main Line are the same as current timings. Digital signalling and the faster acceleration and deceleration of the new trains, are quite likely to decrease times.
Because they are both 34 minutes, does that mean that services will stop at Crewe, Wilmslow and Stockport?
London and Macclesfield Via Stafford And Stoke-on-Trent
This map of High Speed Two in North West England was captured from the interactive map on the High Speed Two web site.
Note.
- The map dates from around October 2020.
- The current West Coast Main Line (WCML) and Phase 2a of High Speed Two are shown in blue.
- Phase 2b of High Speed Two is shown in orange.
- The main North-South route, which is shown in blue, is the WCML passing through Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay and Wigan North Western as it goes North.
- The Western Branch, which is shown in blue, is the Liverpool Branch of the WCML, which serves Runcorn and Liverpool.
- High Speed Two, which is shown in orange, takes a faster route between Crewe and Wigan North Western.
- The Eastern Branch, which is shown in orange, is the Manchester Branch of High Speed Two, which serves Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly.
- The route in the East, which is shown in blue, is the Macclesfield Branch of High Speed Two, which serves Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent and Macclesfield.
The route of Northern Powerhouse Rail between Manchester Airport and Liverpool has still to be finalised.
The London and Macclesfield service is as follows.
- There will be one tph
- There are intermediate stops at Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.
- Macclesfield has a long electrified bay platform, which looks like it will take a 200 m High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train.
- Macclesfield Station And High Speed Two has pictures of the station.
- Four tph operate between Stoke-on-Trent and Manchester Piccadilly via Macclesfield.
- Timings from London would be 55 minutes to Stafford, 70 minutes to Stoke-on-Trent and 90 minutes to Macclesfield.
In some ways, I was surprised about this High Speed Two service.
But it does give an easy connection to Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.
London and Manchester Piccadilly via Macclesfield, Stafford And Stoke-on-Trent
Currently, Avanti West Coast run a service between London and Manchester which runs as follows.
- It calls at Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and Stockport
- It also passes through Watford Junction, Nuneaton, Tamworth and Lichfield Trent Valley.
- It could pass through Stafford.
- It would mean that Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent were served by 2 tph.
- It is run by a Pendolino.
- It has a frequency of 1 tph.
- The current service takes two hours and 6 minutes.
- A few minutes would be added for each extra stop.
I believe it could be a very useful service.
I wonder if it could be run as a complimentary service to High Speed Two to serve more places on the route.
A Second High Speed Two Service Between London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Crewe, Wilmslow And Stockport
So far, I have mapped out three possible services.
- High Speed Two – London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Crewe, Wilmslow And Stockport – One hour and thirty minutes
- High Speed Two – London and Macclesfield Via Stafford and Stoke – One hour and thirty minutes
- Pendolino – London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Nuneaton, Tamworth, Lichfield Trent Valley, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and Stockport – Two hours and 6 minutes plus 4 minutes for each extra stop.
I suspect that four tph could be a good frequency.
The simplest extra service would probably be another High Speed Two London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Crewe, Wilmslow And Stockport.
But it could be another Pendolino service to serve more places.
I believe a service pattern could be arranged with these features.
- Major cities and towns between London and Manchester have at least two tph.
- A larger number of towns and cities have at least one tph.
Note that many stations on the route already have Pendolino services.
Phase 2b Would Be The Ultimate Solution
Phase 2b which will involve a tunnel via Manchester Airport to new platforms in Manchester Piccadilly could be the ultimate solution.
Phase 2b is also needed so that full-size High Speed Two trains can be run to Manchester Piccadilly.
But it will be difficult, expensive and disruptive to build.
Conclusion
I believe it could be easy to plan four services between London and Manchester Piccadilly or Macclesfield.
- High Speed Two Full-Size train – London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Crewe, Wilmslow And Stockport – One hour and eleven minutes
- High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train – London and Macclesfield Via Stafford and Stoke – One hour and thirty minutes
- High Speed Two Full-Size train – London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Crewe, Wilmslow And Stockport – One hour and eleven minutes
- Pendolino – London and Manchester Piccadilly Via Milton Keynes Central, Rugby, Nuneaton, Tamworth, Lichfield Trent Valley, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield and Stockport – Two hours and 6 minutes plus 4 minutes for each extra stop.
Note.
Services 1 and 3 are identical, but don’t need to be.
Service 4 could be run by a High Speed Two Classic-Compatible train.
See Also
Could High Speed Two Finish At Lichfield?
The Anonymous Widower 