The Anonymous Widower

Does The UK Need More Passenger Train Capacity Between London And Scotland?

I went from London Euston to Wigan North Western and Blackpool North stations on Wednesday.

Just after the Bank Holiday, the train to the North, which was going to Glasgow Central,  seemed fairly busy, but I suspect that a few more souls could have been squeezed in.

Coming South in the early evening, there was a lot more space, but those that had gone to Scotland for the Bank Holiday weekend had probably returned.

At the moment, I am getting a lot of adverts like this, when I read The Times on-line.

It looks to me, that Avanti West Coast, are ecouraging travellers to use trains to travel to and from Glasgow.

How Many Anglo-Scottish Trains Are There?

  • Avanti West Coast – 6 tpd – London Euston to Edinburgh Waverley via Birmingham New Street
  • Avanti West Coast – 6 tpd – London Euston to Glasgow Central via Birmingham New Street
  • Avanti West Coast – 1 tph  – London Euston to Glasgow Central via Trent Valley
  • CrossCountry – 1 tph – Plymouth to Edinburgh Waverley
  • LNER – 2 tph – London King’s Cross to Edinburgh Waverley
  • Lumo – 6 tpd – London King’s Cross to Edinburgh Waverley and Glasgow Queen Street
  • Lumo – 4 tpd – London Euston to Stirling
  • TransPennine Express – 1 tp2h – Manchester Airport to Glasgow Central
  • TransPennine Express – 1 tp2h – Manchester Airport to Edinburgh Waverley
  • TransPennine Express – 4 tpd – Liverpool Lime Street to Glasgow Central

Note.

  1. tpd is trains per day.
  2. tph is trains per hour.
  3. tp2h is trains per two hours.
  4. The two Avanti West Coast services via Birmingham New Street alternate.
  5. The Avanti West Coast London Euston to Glasgow Central via Trent Valley service runs 15 tpd.
  6. The two TransPennine Express services from Manchester Airport to Scotland alternate.

My initial estimate is that there are 5 x 15 tph +16 tpd or 91 tpd.

How Many Anglo-Scottish Trains Are There On HS2?

In the original design for HS2, this was the service pattern.

Note.

  1. Train 10 runs hourly between London and Scotland via Old Oak Common and Preston and splits at Carlisle with one train serving Edinburgh Waverley and the other Glasgow Central.
  2. Train 11 runs hourly between London and Scotland via Old Oak Common, Birmingham Interchange and Preston and splits at Carlisle with one train serving Edinburgh Waverley and the other Glasgow Central.
  3. Train 12 runs hourly between Birmingham Curzon Street and Scotland and serves Edinburgh Waverley and Glasgow Central alternatively.

It looks like HS2 contributes 5 tph between England and Scotland or 75 tpd.

But as HS2 is currently configured, these Anglo-Scottish trains will still run.

  • CrossCountry – 1 tph – Plymouth to Edinburgh Waverley
  • LNER – 2 tph – London King’s Cross to Edinburgh Waverley
  • Lumo – 6 tpd – London King’s Cross to Edinburgh Waverley and Glasgow Queen Street
  • Lumo – 4 tpd – London Euston to Stirling
  • TransPennine Express – 1 tp2h – Manchester Airport to Glasgow Central
  • TransPennine Express – 1 tp2h – Manchester Airport to Edinburgh Waverley
  • TransPennine Express – 4 tpd – Liverpool Lime Street to Glasgow Central

If these trains continue to run my estimate is that there will be 4 x 15 tph +14 tpd or 74 tpd by classic routes.

This will mean 149 Anglo-Scottish tpd in total.

How Do You Get Between Leeds, Bradford, Sheffield and Hull, and Scotland?

If you look at the diagram, which shows the service pattern for HS2, note the following.

  • HS2 does not provide a service between Leeds, York, Durham, Darlington and Newcastle, and Scotland.
  • HS2 doesn’t connect to Bradford.
  • HS2 doesn’t go past Leeds, but the current LNER services also serve Bradford Forster Square, Harrogate, Shipley and Skipton stations.

There is also no direct trains from the Leeds/Bradford area to Glasgow.

But Consider.

  • The Settle and Carlisle Line runs between Skipton and Carlisle and used to host the Thames-Clyde Expresses that were run by the London Midland & Scottish Railway.
  • The Wikipedia entry for the Thames-Clyde Express is an interesting read.
  • Bradford Forster Square station was recently extended with two platforms , that can handle 10-car trains.
  • Bradford Forster Square station has seven trains per day from London via Leeds.
  • With a reverse at Bradford Forster Square station trains can call at Leeds, Bradford Forster Square and Skipton stations before taking the Settle and Carlisle Line to Carlisle.
  • The Thames-Clyde Express used to take the Glasgow South Western Line to Glasgow Central calling at Dumfries and Kilmarnock.
  • LNER’s Class 897 tri-mode trains will probably be able to handle the Settle and Carlisle and the Glasgow South Western Line, without using the diesel engines.
  • East Midlands Railway’s Class 810 trains, when fitted with batteries, should probably be able to do the same.

There are a lot of possibilities of how the Settle and Carlisle Line can be used to increase zero-carbon connectivity between Glasgow and London.

 

May 9, 2026 Posted by | Transport/Travel | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

‘I Get To Work On The Most Scenic Railway Line In The World’

The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on the BBC. It is a quote from someone in the BBC article.

This is the sub-heading.

Have you heard the one about the railway line that was threatened with closure, so lots of people started using it and it was saved?

These three opening paragraphs add some detail to the story.

Welcome to the Settle to Carlisle line, the quirky steel road through some of Britain’s most magnificent countryside.

The line starts in Leeds and passes through Shipley and Skipton, but it is the section between North Yorkshire and Cumbria that is world-famous for its views.

Heading north from Settle, the peak of Pen-y-Ghent soon looms large, with Whernside and Ingleborough following a few miles later.

The saving of the line in the 1980s, is one of those classic British tales of a fight against bureaucracy, which like all these tales involved a dog, who gets a heroic mention in the BBC article.

In the next few sections, I will detail how improvements to the rail infrastructure between Bradford, Carlisle, Lancaster, Leeds have gradually developed the rail infrastructure, so that the Settle and Carlisle Line can play an increasing part in improving the economic outlook for a large area of England.

Is The Settle And Carlisle Line In Good Condition?

Google AI gives this answer to the question in the title of this section.

Yes, the Settle-Carlisle line is in good, operational condition and is considered a vital, well-maintained part of the National Rail network.

Despite a history of threatened closures and past structural issues, major investments have secured its future, and it currently carries over 1.2 million passengers a year.

Here is the current status of the line as of early 2026:

Infrastructure Condition: Following significant repairs, including a major £2.1 million project on the Ribblehead Viaduct completed in 2021 and extensive work at Eden Brows (2017), the line’s 14 tunnels and 22 viaducts are in good condition.

Active Usage: It is regularly used by Northern passenger services and is a designated diversionary route for mainline express trains when the West Coast Main Line is closed.

Operational Status: The line is fully operational, featuring regular commuter services, tourist trains, and steam heritage charter trains.

Safety & Upgrades: While it is a historic line, the infrastructure is deemed safe.

Occasional, isolated issues (like the 2022 freight derailment near Carlisle) have been managed with swift repairs.As of early 2026, the line is heavily used, with special passenger services and 150th-anniversary celebrations planned.

It’s probably in better condition, than many houses in the UK.

What Is The Operating Speed Of The Settle And Carlisle Line?

Google AI gives this answer to the question in the title of this section.

The Settle and Carlisle Line generally operates at a maximum speed of 60 mph/97 km/h.

While historically faster, this 60 mph limit is standard for modern passenger and freight services on the route.

Usage Examples and ContextPassenger Services: Northern Rail and various chartered services, including the scenic “Staycation Express” HST 125, operate along the route.

Freight: The line is used for heavy freight, including oil, timber, and cement trains.

Diversions: The line is frequently used as a, albeit slower, alternative route (approx. 2.5 hours for Leeds-Carlisle) during major West Coast Main Line (WCML) closures.

Scenic Tourism: The line is renowned as one of England’s most scenic, carrying over a million travelers annually, with notable sights like the Ribblehead Viaduct.

The Settle And Carlisle Line Is Well Connected To The Rail Network At The Northern End

This OpenRailwayMap shows how the line connects to the West Coast Main Line and the Tyne Valley Line, to the South of Carlisle.

Note.

  1. Electrified lines are shown in red and lines shown in black are not electrified.
  2. The electrified West Coast Main Line runs diagonally across the South-West corner of the map.
  3. The blue arrow on this line, indicates Carlisle station.
  4. The Northernmost of the two black cross lines is the Tyne Valley Line between Carlisle and Newcastle.
  5. The Southernmost of the two black cross lines is the Settle And Carlisle Line, which goes South to Settle, Bradford Forster Square, Leeds and Settle stations.
  6. The line going South-West joins the Cumbrian Coast Line, which joins the West Coast Main Line at Carnforth.

It does appear that the junction South of Carlisle is very comprehensive and allows very flexible routing.

The Settle And Carlisle Line Is Well Connected To The Rail Network At The Southern End

This OpenRailwayMap shows how the line connects to the West Coast Main Line and the Tyne Valley Line, to the North of Skipton.

 

Note.

  1. Electrified lines are shown in red and lines shown in black are not electrified.
  2. The blue arrow on this line, indicates Bradford Forster Square station.
  3. The fully-electrified Leeds station is in the South-East corner of the map. You can just pick out the ee of the name.
  4. The electrified Leeds-Bradford Line connects Bradford Forster Square and Leeds station via Shipley station and its triangular junction.
  5. The electrification continues in a North-Westerly direction as far as Skipton, where the red track stops.
  6. Electric intercity trains can run from London to Leeds, Bradford Forster Square and Skipton.
  7. Self-powered intercity trains can also run from London to Harrogate, which is on the line without electrification, that runs North from Leeds.
  8. Leeds receives a London service of two trains per hour (tph).
  9. Bradford Forster Square station receives a London service of one train per two hours (tp2h) via Leeds.
  10. Harrogate station receives a London service of 1 tp2h via Leeds.
  11. Skipton station receives a London service of one train per day (tpd) via Leeds.

The Leeds-Bradford area gets a frequent service to London and the South.

This OpenRailwayMap shows how the Settle and Carlisle Line connects to the electrification at Skipton.

Note.

  1. Electrified lines are shown in red and lines shown in black are not electrified.
  2. The only electrified lines on the map are at Skipton station in the South-East corner of the map.
  3. The blue arrow on this line, indicates Settle station.
  4. Skipton and Settle stations are 15.2 miles apart.
  5. Settle and Carlisle are 71.5 miles apart.

To bridge the gap in the electrification between Carlisle and Skipton, trains will need to be able to run 86.7 miles on their own power.

Bridging The Carlisle And Skipton Gap

But once the train gets to Carlisle or Skipton, the train will have the luxury of 25 KVAC overhead electrification to both power the train and charge any batteries.

In my opinion, there are three intercity trains coming into service, that could handle an 86.7 mile gap in electrification.

  1. East Midland Railways’s Class 810 train, which is a diesel bi-mode with lots of power, which is described in this Wikipedia entry.
  2. LNER’s Class 802 trains, which currently is a diesel bi-mode, that Hitachi could convert into a Hitachi Intercity Battery Train, which is described on this Hitachi web site.
  3. LNER’s Class 897 trains, which is a diesel tri-mode, that CAF are building in Spain and Wales, which is described in this Wikipedia entry.

In How Far Will A Hitachi Intercity Battery Train Travel Without Using The Electrification?, I answer the question for both Hitachi and CAF trains.

Surprisingly, I got the answer of a range of 120 miles for both the Hitachi and CAF trains. But could it be that Network Rail and the train companies wanted a range of 120 miles to electrify the UK rail network and so a 120 mile battery range was in the specification.

My estimate of 120 miles for Hitachi’s trains, was also confirmed by the company.

Bridging The Gaps

Some other distances, where gaps must be bridged include.

  • Sheffield and South Wigston – 69.4 miles
  • Holyhead and Chester – 84.4 miles
  • Exeter and Basingstoke – 124,3 miles
  • Fishguard Harbour and Cardiff Central – 119.1 miles
  • Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury – 81.5 miles
  • Bristol Temple Meads and Newbury – 70.8 miles
  • Inverness and Aberdeen – 108.3 miles
  • Carlisle and Glasgow Central via Dumfries – 115.9 miles
  • Hereford to Didcot Junction – 96.9 miles

120 miles could be a good fit.

Could it be that that distance was the range of a steam locomotive on a full load of water?

The Updating Of Bradford Forster Square Station

This is now a four-platform station, with two platforms able to take a pair of 5-car Hitachi or the new CAF 10-car Class 397 trains.

In Bradford Forster Square Station – 20th May 2025, I describe and show pictures of the updated station.

Bradford Forster Square station now gets seven trains per day to and from London King’s Cross via Leeds.

This article on the BBC, which is entitled New Platform’s Opening Gives Bradford More Trains has this sub-heading.

A new £35m platform at Bradford’s Forster Square Station has opened – boosting rail services in the city

£35million seems a lot of money to spend to just increase the number of services between King’s Cross and Bradford, even though 2025 was the year that Bradford was UK City of Culture, but there may be valid reasons to create a new route between London and Scotland, using the Settle and Carlisle Line.

  • The Settle and Carlisle Line is one of the UK’s most famous scenic routes with 20 viaducts, 14 tunnels and countless beautiful vistas along its 72 mile track.
  • You put the Mona Lisa on display, not in a store.
  • LNER now has battery-electric bi-mode trains, with CAF tri-mode trains due to enter service in 2028, that can both handle the 86.7 mile gap in the electrification in silence.
  • The CAF trains have extra diesel power, about which CAF is not disclosing much. This to me, suggests some innovative use.
  • There appear to be no flights between Leeds/Bradford Airport and Scotland.
  • There appear to be no direct trains between Glasgow and West Yorkshire.
  • A direct train between Glasgow and Leeds and Bradford Forster Square would add additional connectivity between Scotland and Yorkshire.
  • With the cancellation of High Speed Two, we need more train paths between London and Scotland.
  • Decarbonisation of aviation is difficult, but replacing fossil-fueled planes with zero-carbon trains is easier.
  • A single Class 897 train can carry 569 seated passengers, which is about 3.5 times the capacity of a single Airbus A320.
  • The proposed Leeds Metro would bring passengers to the new service.
  • Leeds and Bradford could see an upturn in tourism.

I also think the line will not be lightly used due to its iconic status.

How Would A Leeds/Bradford And Scotland Service Call At Bradford Forster Square Station?

  • Bradford Forster Square station now gets seven trains per day to and from London King’s Cross via Stevenage, Newark Northgate, Doncaster, Wakefield Westgate, Leeds and Shipley.
  • There is one fewer train on Sunday.
  • There is a triangular junction at Shipley station, which connects the three electrified lines to Leeds, Bradford Forster Square and Skipton.

This OpenRailwayMap shows Shipley station and the triangular junction.

Note.

  1. All rail lines are electrified and shown in red.
  2. The blue arrow on this line, indicates Shipley station.
  3. Shipley station appears to be in the middle of the junction.
  4. The line going East connects to Leeds station.
  5. The line going South connects to Bradford Forster Square station, which is at the end of the line.
  6. The line going West connects to Skipton station and the Settle and Carlisle Line.

Trains returning to London would reverse out of Bradford Forster Square station and take the Eastern route through Shipley and Leeds back to London.

  • An appropriate number of trains for Carlisle and Scotland, could surely just reverse out of the station and take the Western route through Skipton station and go on to the Settle and Carlisle Line.
  • The trains would call at Wakefield Westgate, Leeds, Shipley, Bradford Forster Square and Skipton stations in the Leeds/Bradford conurbation.
  • Other stations could be added to the route if required.
  • The trains would effectively reverse direction in their call at Bradford Forster Square station.
  • Going North the trains might check their battery levels in Bradford Forster Square station and use a fast-charger if necessary.
  • Going South, there would be no need for charging, as the route South from Bradford Forster Square station, is already fully-electrified.
  • Would the operator, use this longer stop to replace the crew with a fresh one?

It could be a simple and efficient way to run a London and Scotland service via the Settle and Carlisle Line.

What About Hull, Sheffield And York?

I’m asking this question, as Yorkshire is a large county and this article has only mentioned a few places, where people live and might need to go to London or Scotland.

In February, I wrote Northern Launches New Yorkshire Flyer Fast Service Between Leeds And Sheffield.

I’m fairly sure that Hull, York and other cities and large towns in Yorkshire already have a good regional service to Bradford Forster Square or Leeds station, which will give a good connection to the new service.

Could Dumfries Be Served By Using The Glasgow South Western Line?

This OpenRailwayMap shows the Southern part of the Glasgow South Western Line.

Note.

  1. Electrified lines are shown in red and lines shown in black are not electrified.
  2. The blue arrow on the black track, indicates Dumfries station on the Glasgow South Western Line.
  3. The red track is the West Coast Main Line.
  4. Carlisle is in the South-East corner of the map.
  5. Carlisle and Glasgow Central via Dumfries is 115.9 miles
  6. The Thames-Clyde Express, ran on this route until 1974.
  7. According to the Wikipedia entry for the Thames-Clyde Express, the train called at Dumfries and Kilmarnock stations.

From this brief look it appears that the new service could include Dumfries and should be able to serve the town on battery power.

Is More Capacity Needed On The West Coast Main Line Between Carlisle And Glasgow?

I asked Google AI, this question, to see if there is capacity.

This was the answer I received.

Yes, increased capacity and infrastructure enhancements are required on the West Coast Main Line (WCML) between Carlisle and Glasgow, as the line is currently full and unable to meet modern, growing passenger and freight demands.

Upgrades are necessary to tackle aging infrastructure, bottlenecks, and the need for more frequent services.

Key Aspects of the Need for Capacity:Full Capacity: The WCML is essentially full, with little space left for growth, despite 75 million passengers using it annually.

Freight and Passenger Growth: Passenger numbers are expected to double by 2050, and the line is a crucial artery for Anglo-Scottish freight.

Infrastructure Age: The northern section is undergoing its largest upgrade in half a century to address reliability issues.

Performance Bottlenecks: Specific locations, such as those north of Carlisle, require signaling and track improvements to prevent delays.

Proposed Upgrades: Current initiatives include a £400m investment until March 2029 for upgrades, including signalling and track renewals, though these are largely to boost reliability rather than provide a massive increase in capacity.

It looks to me, that a bit of a redesign and some use of battery trains on the Glasgow South Western Line, might squeeze a few more trains into the route.

 

 

 

 

 

May 2, 2026 Posted by | Artificial Intelligence, Transport/Travel | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Are Scotrail Going To Replace The Inter7City Trains With Hydrogen-Powered Trains?

This article in The Times is entitled The Caley Is Ready To Roll With New Venture Building Trains.

I feel that this is one of the most significant paragraphs in the article.

ScotRail has indicated that it wants to replace nearly two thirds of its fleet with new, low-carbon rolling stock between 2027 and 2035, comprising about 675 carriages in total, with an initial core order of 64 four and five-car units. A spokesman confirmed: “We are working on a business case that will go to the Scottish government for the procurement of a new suburban train fleet.”

The current Scotrail fleet includes.

  • 25 Inter7City trains which comprise 52 Class 43 power cars and 120 Mark 3 carriages – Diesel – 120 cars – 1975
  • 5 Class 153 trains  – Diesel – 5 cars – 1987
  • 42 Class 156 trains – Diesel – 84 cars – 1987
  • 40 Class 158 trains – Diesel – 80 cars – 1987
  • 30 Class 170 trains – Diesel – 90 cars – 1998
  • 21 Class 318 trains – Electric – 63 cars – 1985
  • 34 Class 320 trains – Electric – 66 cars – 1990
  • 40 Class 334 trains – Electric – 120 cars – 1999
  • 38 Class 380 trains – Electric – 140 cars – 2009
  • 70 Class 385 trains – Electric – 234 cars – 2015

Note the last three fields are the traction type, total number of cars and the build year of the first train.

I will split these trains into four groups.

  • Inter7City – Diesel – 25 trains – 120 cars
  • BR Diesel – Diesel – 117 trains – 259 cars
  • BR Electric – Electric – 55 trains – 129 cars
  • Modern Electric – Electric – 148 trains – 494 cars

Note.

  1. This is a grand total of 345 trains and 1002 cars.
  2. Ignoring the modern electric trains and the total is 197 trains and 508 cars.
  3. The total for diesel trains is 142 trains and 359 cars.
  4. As Great Western Railway have withdrawn their similar GWR Castles, there must be reasons for Scotrail to do the same.

I will now look at replacement strategies, based on this statement from Scotrail.

ScotRail has indicated that it wants to replace nearly two thirds of its fleet with new, low-carbon rolling stock between 2027 and 2035, comprising about 675 carriages in total, with an initial core order of 64 four and five-car units.

I would expect 675 carriages would be about 232 trains, if the current average train length of just under three cars is carried over.

The Effect Of 675 New Carriages

Assuming that no modern electric trains were replaced, this would create a fleet size of at least 1169 carriages.

This would be a sixteen percent increase in carriages, which would be welcome news for some rail users.

The Initial Core Order Of 64 Four And Five-Car Units

All we know of this order, is the number of trains and that they will be new and low-carbon, according to indications from Scotrail.

Low-carbon would mean one of these traction options.

  • Electric trains with full electrification.
  • Battery-electric trains with partial-electrification.
  • Hydrogen-powered trains.

Note.

  1. The heritage Taliban would object violently to full electrification of some historic routes.
  2. UNESCO would probably remove the World Heritable Site status to the Forth Bridge if it were to be electrified.
  3. Scotland is developing a hydrogen infrastructure.
  4. Hydrogen-powered trains have long ranges in the order of a thousand kilometres.
  5. Hydrogen-powered trains are essentially electric trains with a hydrogen fuel-cell to provide electricity as needed.
  6. Hydrogen-powered trains would need very little new infrastructure, except for a network of refuelling points across Scotland.
  7. Well-designed battery-electric and hydrogen-electric trains, should be very quiet and comfortable for passengers.

As an engineer, I would choose hydrogen-power for the initial core order.

Where would the initial core order be deployed?

Twenty-five would be used to replace the carbon-emitting elderly Inter7City trains.

These routes could probably handle the other forty.

  • Aberdeen and Inverness
  • Edinburgh/Glasgow and Aberdeen.
  • Edinburgh/Glasgow and Inverness.
  • Glasgow and South Western Line
  • West Highland Line.

Note.

  1. A lot of diesel trains would be retired.
  2. Trains could be designed, for tourists with proper cycle spaces.
  3. The West Highland Line would get the five-car trains it needs.

This would be a good start.

Conclusion

It looks to me, that the Inter7City trains will be going and will be replaced by new trains.

But will Scotland take the great leap forward and power the new trains by Scottish hydrogen?

 

 

May 14, 2024 Posted by | Hydrogen, Transport/Travel | , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Nuggets From The Union Connectivity Review

The Union Connectivity Review has now been published and it can be read online.

This paragraph outlines the objective of the Review.

The UK Government asked Sir Peter Hendy CBE to undertake a detailed review into how transport connectivity across the UK can support economic growth and quality of life in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Sir Peter was also asked to make recommendations as to whether and how best to improve transport connectivity between the nations of the UK.

Sir Peter Hendy is the Chairman of Network Rail.

In no particular order, these are some nuggets from the review.

The Case For UKNET – A Strategic Transport Network For The Whole United Kingdom

This paragraph introduces the case for UKNET.

Having identified the importance of good connections across internal borders and the challenges that currently prevent a pan-UK strategic vision or investment strategy, the Review recommends that the UK Government develop UKNET – a strategic transport network for the whole United Kingdom which would connect all the nations of the
UK, with appropriate funding and coordination with the devolved administrations to deliver it.

The creation only follows best practice from the European Union and large countries like the United States.

These three paragraphs sum up how UKNET would work and how it would bring benefits to the whole of the UK.

UKNET would provide a network into which transport investment would be made on a pan-UK basis to support economic growth, jobs, housing and social cohesion, across the nations of the UK, for the benefit of the whole country.

It would allow transport appraisals for schemes on the network to be undertaken on a UK-wide basis with all costs and benefits being fully accounted for. This would limit the risk of cross-border schemes being deprioritised.

The development of such a network would provide additional certainty for businesses and the private sector, allowing them to plan complementary investments in specific regions and to invest in the supply chain across the country.

I think overall that UKNET is sound thinking, but my only feeling is that it should also look at transport links to and from the whole island of Ireland.

The Case for Faster Rail Journey Times Between England And Scotland

These three paragraphs probably apply to most rail journeys in the world, that compete against air and road travel.

Both the UK and Scottish Governments have previously agreed to develop options which could support a rail journey time between London and Scotland of three hours. A journey time improvement of this size, even when compared to expected journey times once HS2 opens, would dramatically increase the number of people travelling by rail.

There is a correlation between journey times and how many people choose to travel by rail over air. If it takes the same amount of time to travel by rail or by air, the evidence shows that people choose to travel by rail. Rail is typically favoured when the journey time is around three hours between city centres.

Work undertaken by Network Rail and HS2 Ltd on behalf of the Review has demonstrated the potential for increased trips by rail if journey times are reduced. For assurance purposes, two forecasting models were used to assess savings of 20, 35 and 50 mins on the journey times forecast for HS2 Phase 2b. The outcomes for both models were broadly similar and the approach built upon the changes in mode share observed between rail and aviation following previous UK and European rail investments.

Three hours between London and Scotland could be a tough ask.

Note these points about the East Coast Main Line.

  1. An InterCity 225 ran between London and Edinburgh on the 26th September 1191 in three hours and 29 minutes.
  2. Full digital in-cab signalling will allow running at 140 mph.
  3. There are improvements to come on the East Coast Main Line.
  4. As now, the review says two tph will run between London and Edinburgh.
  5. London Kings Cross and Edinburgh is 393 miles
  6. On the East Coast Main Line a non-stop train between would need to average 131 mph.

Three hours is tough but not impossible.

And these points about the West Coast Main Line.

  1. Trains will run on High Speed Two between London Euston and Crewe.
  2. High Speed Two are claiming fifty-six minutes between London Euston and Crewe.
  3. Full digital in-cab signalling will allow running at 140 mph.
  4. Crewe and Glasgow Central is 243.4 miles.
  5. Current fastest time between Crewe and Glasgow Central is three hours and five minutes.
  6. Between Crewe and Glasgow Central, a non-stop train would need to average 118 mph.

A well-driven InterCity 125, with a clear track, could average that speed between Crewe and Glasgow Central.

Three hours is tough but very possible.

This paragraph sums up the mode shift expected between air and road to rail.

These initial estimates indicated that a three-hour journey time was forecast to increase the number of passengers by around four million a year and increase rail mode share from the 2019 level of 29% to around 75%. It was also forecasted that journey times in the region of three hours would generate considerable transport user benefits and revenues over the lifetime of the scheme.

People travelling from the Midlands and North West England to and from Scotland would also get substantial reductions in journey times.

Linking High Speed Two With The WCML

The review says this about linking High Speed Two with the West Coast Main Line.

The UK Government has already acknowledged some of the issues identified by the Review. The ‘Golborne Link’—the current proposed connection between HS2 and the WCML—is expected to deliver quicker journey times and more capacity between England and Scotland and resolve some of the constraints between Crewe and Preston.

However, the ‘Golborne Link’ does not resolve all of the identified issues. The suitability of alternative connections between HS2 and the WCML have been considered by the Review. The emerging evidence suggests that an alternative connection to the WCML, for example at some point south of Preston, could offer more benefits and an opportunity to reduce journey times by two to three minutes more than the ‘Golborne Link’. However, more work is required to better understand the case for and against such options.

These benefits could also include additional operational flexibility when timing freight services and less disruption to the WCML than major upgrades as most construction could take place away from the railway.

An infrastructure philosophy is also detailed.

  • Replacing and enhancing track, signalling and power supply.
  • Possible new sections of line north of Preston.
  • Maximising of line speed.

My feeling is that for good project management reasons and to give faster journey times with the existing trains, that a lot of these improvements should be started as soon as possible.

Borders Railway

The Review says this about the Borders Railway.

Communities in the Scottish Borders region are enthusiastic about the economic and social benefits they see resulting from an extension of the Borders Railway south, across the border, to Carlisle.

The Review also welcomes the £5 million in funding that the UK Government has made available for the development of a possible extension to the Borders Railway which would support improved connections to and from Scotland and with the WCML at Carlisle.

I would build this early, as when the West Coast Main Line is being upgraded between Carlisle and Glasgow, this would be available as a diversion route.

Perhaps too, the Glasgow South Western Line should be improved and electrified as well.

Air Passenger Duty

The Review has a sizeable session on Air Passenger Duty, where it concentrates on the problems of its application to domestic flights.

The Review makes this recommendation.

Where journeys are too long to be reasonably taken by road or rail, the UK Government should reduce the rate of domestic aviation tax.

I believe that before the end of this decade, there will be smaller zero-carbon airliners, that will be ideal for domestic routes, which could totally change the regime of domestic Air Passenger Duty.

Decarbonisation And The Future Of Flight

This is a section in the Review, where this is the first paragraph.

In July 2021, the Department for Transport published the Jet Zero Consultation: a consultation on our strategy for net zero aviation127, alongside the Transport Decarbonisation Plan. This includes the ambition to have zero-emission routes connecting different parts of the UK by 2030 and a commitment to assess the feasibility of serving PSO routes with low carbon aviation. The Review welcomes the commitments made in both publications to accelerate the uptake of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) and develop low and zero-emission aircraft.

The Review goes on to make two recommendations.

  • Drive the uptake of sustainable fuels and zero emission technologies on domestic aviation through a combination of incentives, tax benefits and subsidies to make the UK a world  leader in developing these fuels and technologies.
  • Support the development of sustainable aviation fuel plants in parts of the United Kingdom that are particularly reliant on aviation for domestic connectivity.

Note.

  1. PSO means Public Service Obligation.
  2. One of the world leaders in the field of sustainable aviation fuels is Velocys, which is a spin out from Oxford University.
  3. The Review also suggests building a sustainable aviation fuel plant in Northern Ireland.

The Review gives the impression it is keen on the use of sustainable aviation fuel

 

Conclusion

There are some good nuggets in the sections I have read in detail.

This post is not finished and there will be additions to the list.

 

 

 

November 30, 2021 Posted by | Transport/Travel | , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

East Kilbride Electrification Underway

The title of this post, is the same as that of this article on Modern Railways.

These are the last two paragraphs.

As well as electrification, improvements on the line will include an upgrade of East Kilbride station, relocation of Hairmyres station 600 metres to the west, platform extensions and accessibility upgrades. The aim is to provide a four trains per hour eight-car electric service at peak periods. A parallel project will cover electrification between Busby Junction and Barrhead.

The Scottish Government’s plan is to decarbonise its passenger rail services by 2035, chiefly through electrification. It has recently been confirmed that partial electrification of the Borders and Fife Circle routes will follow after the East Kilbride and Barrhead lines, with battery EMUs deployed on these lines.

Because partial electrification is mentioned, it looks like Scotland is getting serious about using battery-electric trains.

This map clipped from Wikipedia, shows the section of the Glasgow South Western Line, that includes Kilmarnock station and the branch to East Kilbride station.

The route North of Strathbungo continues to Glasgow Central station.

Which Sections Will Be Electrified?

I will take each of the sections in turn starting at the North.

Between Muirhouse South And Busby Junctions

This sentence is from the Modern Railways article.

Contractor SPL will commence on-site activities between Muirhouse South Junction and Busby Junction, including piling and construction steelwork foundations to support overhead masts.

On the map, Muirhouse South Junction is to the North of Stratbumgo and Busby junction is clearly marked and is where the East Kilbride branch joins the main line.

This section of new electrification is only around two miles long.

This article on Rail Technology Magazine is entitled Network Rail: Strathbungo Locals Vote For New Footbridge.

There have been many bridge replacements for electrification, but this surely must be one of the first, where local people have voted for their preferred design.

The only other bridges on this section appear to be two substantial road bridges, where with any luck, it should be possible to squeeze the wires underneath.

Between Busby Junction And Barrhead Station

The other section listed for electrification is between Busby junction and Barrhead station.

This second section is only around 3.7 miles long and there are only two overbridges, both of which look modern.

Taking the two sections of electrification together they total under twelve track-miles and they are in a continuous straight line

I doubt, that together, they are the one of the world’s most challenging railway electrification projects.

Busby Junction and East Kilbride Station

There is no specific information about electrification between Busby junction and East Kilbride station.

  • The branch is 7.8 miles long.
  • There are fifteen overbridges on the branch.

In Plans To Introduce Battery Powered Trains In Scotland, Hitachi are quoted as saying that their trains will do sixty miles on batteries.

This should be more than enough range to run services to East Kilbride on battery power.

Barrhead and Kilmarnock Stations

There is no specific information about electrification between Barrhead and Kilmarnock stations.

  • The distance is 16.8 miles.
  • There are eleven overbridges between the two stations.

It would appear that Hitachi’s quoted sixty mile range, would be sufficient to enable battery-electric trains to run between the electrification at Barrhead and Kilmarnock station.

Operation

The various services between Glasgow Central and East Kilbride and Kilmarnock stations will probably operate as follows.

  • Glasgow Central To East Kilbride – Electrification for traction and battery charging to Crossmyloof station and then battery power.
  • East Kilbride To Glasgow Central – Battery power and gravity to Crossmyloof station and then electrification.
  • Glasgow Central To Barrhead – Electrification for traction all the way.
  • Barrhead to Glasgow Central – Electrification for traction all the way.
  • Glasgow Central To Kilmarnock – Electrification for traction and battery charging to Barrhead station and then battery power.
  • East Kilbride To Glasgow Central – Battery power to Barrhead station and then electrification.

Note.

  1. All power changeovers could be arranged to take place in stations.
  2. Gravity can be used to assist trains from East Kilbride to Glasgow Central.
  3. Glasgow Central and Barrhead services don’t need trains with batteries.
  4. The return trip between Crossmyloof and Glasgow central stations, should be more than enough to charge the batteries.

The project would appear to have been very well-designed for a fleet of battery-electric trains, with respect to reliability and electrical efficiency.

Onward To Carlisle And Stranraer

Hitachi’s system for discontinuous electrification, that I discussed in Solving The Electrification Conundrum, would appear to be ideal to extend electric trains to Carlisle and Stranraer.

Barrhead and Carlisle are 108 miles apart and Barrhead and Stranraer are 90 miles apart.

By adding two or three intermediate sections of 25 KVAC overhead electrification, it should be possible for electric trains to reliably travel between Glasgow Central and Carlisle or Stranraer.

Project Management

This electrification project could be a Project Manager’s dream.

Electrification projects in the UK can turn out to be nightmares, as if it can go wrong, it inevitably will.

But with this project, it appears that it is planned to get the often-troublesome job of erecting the gantries out of the way early.

The electrification between Muirhouse South junction and Barrhead station can even be completed first, so that passengers can see the benefit of electric trains and the electrification can be fully tested.

There are then a series of independent projects, that can be performed in the most convenient order.

  • Track upgrades.
  • Rebuild East Kilbride station.
  • Move Hairmyres station to its new position.
  • Platform extensions.
  • Improve accessibility.
  • Deliver the new battery-electric trains.

Note.

  1. It looks to me, that all of these smaller projects can be performed, whilst maintaining a full rail service on the railway. Doing that with conventional electrification usually results in some disruption.
  2. Late delivery of the battery-electric trains will not delay the overall project, if there are enough diesel multiple units to fill in.
  3. Passengers will see benefits and new facilities delivered in a stream, rather than all at once.

Similar processes can be used to extend the network to Carlisle and Stranraer.

Conclusion

This is a well-designed project.

 

August 6, 2021 Posted by | Transport/Travel | , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Through Settle And Carlisle Service Under Consideration

The title of this post, is the same as that of an article in the June 2021 Edition of Modern Railways.

This is the first paragraph.

Plans for a new Leeds to Glasgow through service via the Settle and Carlisle line are being developed, with CrossCountry and the Department for Transport starting to look at the possible scheme.

It sounds like a sensible idea to me.

The article also suggests the following.

  • CrossCountry is a possible operator.
  • CrossCountry are keen to improve services between Leeds and Glasgow
  • The trains could be InterCity 125s, freed up, by a the arrival of Class 221 trains from Avanti West Coast, when they receive their new Class 805 trains.
  • Maintenance of the trains wouldn’t be a problem, as this could be done at Neville Hill in Leeds or Craigentinny in Edinburgh.
  • Services could start in December 2023.

I have a few thoughts of my own!

The Route

The route between Leeds and Carlisle is obvious, but there are two routes between Carlisle and Glasgow.

Trains would probably choose a route and call at stations to maximise passenger numbers.

These stations are on the various routes.

  • Settle and Carlisle – Shipley, Bingley, Keighley, Skipton, Gargrave, Hellifield, Long Preston, Settle, Horton in Ribblesdale, Ribblehead, Dent, Garsdale, Kirkby Stephen, Appleby, Langwathby, Lazonby & Kirkoswald and Armathwaite
  • Glasgow South Western – Dunlop, Stewarton, Kilmaurs, Kilmarnock, Auchinleck, New Cumnock, Kirkconnel, Sanquhar, Dumfries, Annan and Gretna Green
  • West Coast Main – Motherwell, Carstairs and Lockerbie

There are certainly a lot of possibilities.

 Upgrading The InterCity 125 Trains

CrossCountry appear to have enough InterCity 125 trains to muster five in a two Class 43  power car and seven Mark 3 coach formation.

They may not be fully in-line with the latest regulations and there may be a need for a certain degree of refurbishment.

These pictures show some details of a refurbished Great Western Railway Castle, which has been fitted with sliding doors.

Will The InterCity 125 Trains Be Shortened?

Scotrail’s Inter7City trains and Great Western Railway’s Castle trains have all been shortened to four or five coaches.

This picture shows a pair of Castles.

Journey Times, Timetable And Frequency

The current journey time between Leeds and Glasgow Central stations via the East Coast Main Line is four hours and eight minutes with nine stops.

The Modern Railways article says this about the current service.

The new service would be targeted at business and leisure travellers, with through journey times competitive with road and faster than the current direct CrossCountry Leeds to Glasgow services via the East Coast main line.

I would expect that CrossCountry are looking for a time of around four hours including the turn round.

  • Stops could be removed to achieve the timing.
  • The trains could run at 125 mph on the West Coast Main Line.

This could enable a train to have the following diagram.

  • 0800 – Depart Leeds
  • 1200 – Depart Glasgow Central
  • 1600 – Depart Leeds
  • 2000 – Depart Glasgow Central
  • Before 2400 – Arrive Leeds

Note.

  1. A second train could start in Glasgow and perform the mirrored timetable.
  2. Timings would probably be ideal for train catering.
  3. Trains would leave both termini at 0800, 1200, 1600 and 2000.
  4. The timetable would need just two trains.

I also think, if a second pair of trains were to be worked into the timetable, there could be one train every two hours on the route, if the demand was there.

I certainly believe there could be a timetable, that would meet the objectives of attracting business and leisure passengers away from the roads.

Tourism And Leisure Potential

The Settle and Carlisle Line is known as one of the most scenic railway lines in England, if not the whole of the UK.

There are important tourist sites all along the route between Leeds and Glasgow

Many of the stations are used by walkers and others interested in country pursuits.

I believe that it is a route that needs a quality rail service.

Travel Between London and Towns Along The Settle And Carlisle Line

In Thoughts On Digital Signalling On The East Coast Main Line, I said this.

I think it is highly likely that in the future, there will be at least one train per hour (tph) between London Kings Cross and Leeds, that does the trip in two hours.

It may seem fast compared to today, but I do believe it is possible.

With a timely connection at Leeds station, will this encourage passengers to places along the Settle and Carlisle line to use the train?

What About the Carbon Emissions?

The one problem with using InterCity 125 trains on this route, is that they are diesel-powered, using a pair of Class 43 locomotives.

But then there are over a hundred of these diesel-electric locomotives in service, nearly all of which are now powered by modern MTU diesel engines, which were fitted in the first decade of this century.

Consider.

  • The locomotives and the coaches they haul have an iconic status.
  • Great Western Railway and Scotrail have recently developed shorter versions of the trains for important routes.
  • There are over a hundred of the locomotives in service.
  • Companies like ULEMCo are developing technology to create diesel-powered vehicles that can run on diesel or hydrogen.
  • There is plenty of space in the back of the locomotives for extra equipment.
  • MTU have a very large number of diesel engines in service. It must be in the company’s interest to find an easy way to cut carbon emissions.
  • I believe that the modern MTU diesel engines could run on biodiesel to reduce their carbon footprint.

And we shouldn’t forget JCB’s technology, which I wrote about in JCB Finds Cheap Way To Run Digger Using Hydrogen.

If they could develop a 2 MW hydrogen engine, it could be a shoe-in.

I believe that for these and other reasons, a solution will be found to reduce the carbon emissions of these locomotives to acceptable levels.

Conclusion

In this quick look, it appears to me that a Glasgow and Leeds service using InterCity 125 trains could be a very good idea.

May 21, 2021 Posted by | Transport/Travel | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Could High Speed Two Be A One-Nation Project?

As currently envisioned, High Speed Two is very much an English project, with the following routes

  • London and Birmingham
  • London and Liverpool via Birmingham
  • London and Manchester Airport/Manchester via Birmingham and Crewe
  • London and Sheffield via Birmingham and the East Midlands Hub
  • London and Leeds via Birmingham and the East Midlands Hub

There are large numbers of mid-sized towns and cities that it won’t serve directly.

The West Coast Main Line

The West Coast Main Line serves the following routes.

  • London and Birmingham
  • London and Liverpool via Crewe
  • London and Manchester via Crewe
  • London and Glasgow via Crewe, Wigan, Preston and Carlisle
  • London and Blackpool via Crewe, Wigan, Preston
  • London and North Wales via Crewe and Chester.

It could probably be considered a two or two-and-a-half nation line, as it serves the Western half of Scotland and the Northern half of Wales.

Add the West Coast Main Line and High Speed Two together and you get a line, that serves a lot more places like Blackpool, Carlisle, Chester, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Preston, Stafford, Stoke and Wigan.

  • The current plan for both routes envisage them both being run by Avanti West Coast, so it looks like High Speed Two is being designed to work with the West Coast Main Line.
  • Destinations like Carlisle, Glasgow and Preston will be served using the West Coast Main Line.
  • Compatible trains will be built that can be run on both lines.
  • Some stations will be shared.

It does seem that there are advantages, if the two routes are considered as one system.

The East Coast Main Line

The East Coast Main Line serves the following routes.

  • London and Bradford
  • London and Cambridge
  • London and Edinburgh via Doncaster, York and Newcastle
  • London and Harrogate via Leeds
  • London and Hull
  • London and Kings Lynn via Cambridge
  • London and Lincoln via Newark.
  • London and Leeds via Doncaster
  • London and Middlesbrough
  • London and Skipton via Leeds
  • London and Sunderland

The East Coast Main Line could become another high speed line.

Extra services could be added.

  • London and Norwich via Cambridge
  • London and Nottingham
  • London and Grimsby and Cleethorpes via Lincoln.
  • London and Sheffield via Retford.

Add the East Coast Main Line and High Speed Two together and there could be a wider range of towns and cities served.

  • Peterborough and Doncaster could play the same role in the East as Birmingham and Crewe will play in the West.
  • The East Coast Main Line between London and Doncaster will be upgraded to in-cab ERTMS signalling in a few years time, which will allow 140 mph running on several sections of the route.
  • Improvements are either under way or being planned to reduce bottlenecks on the East Coast Main Line.
  • If High Speed Two can handle eighteen trains per hour (tph), then surely the East Coast Main Line, which has a lot of quadruple track, can handle upwards of twelve 140 mph trains per hour between London and Doncaster, after the improvements to track and signalling.
  • I estimate that 140 mph running between London and Doncaster could save as much as twenty minutes.
  • I feel that Barnsley, Doncaster, Hull, Leeds, Sheffield and York could all be reached in under two hours from London using the existing Azuma trains.
  • This morning the 0700 from Kings Cross is timetabled to reach York at 0852. Would it be possible for London and York to be around just ninety minutes?
  • Savings would also apply to trains between London and Leeds, Middlesbrough, Newcastle, Scotland and Sunderland.
  • Sub-four hour journeys between London and Edinburgh would be commonplace.

Note that the Internet gives a driving time of nearly three and a half hours between London and Leeds. Surely, two hours or less on High Speed Yorkshire would be much preferable.

I would add this infrastructure.

  • There might be a good case to create electrified routes to Hull and Sheffield and between Sheffield and Leeds, but they wouldn’t be needed to start the service or obtain the time savings. But they would ease operation, cut carbon emissions and save a few more minutes.
  • A station at Doncaster-Sheffield Airport.
  • A parkway station at Barnsley on the Dearne Valley Line with direct services to Doncaster, Leeds, London and Sheffield.

The two latter improvements have been proposed in Sheffield Region’s transport plans.

High Speed Yorkshire should be finished as soon as possible. A completion date of 2024 is not unreasonable.

Northern Powerhouse Rail

Northern Powerhouse Rail is a plan to build an East-West high speed line or at least a much faster one, than the overcrowded joke, that presently exists.

I discussed the latest thinking in Changes Signalled For HS2 Route In North and the latest thinking and my views can best be summarised as follows.

  • Northern Powerhouse Rail will be an improved line with some new sections, between Liverpool and Hull via Manchester Airport, Manchester and Leeds.
  • Northern Powerhouse Rail and High Speed Two will connect at High Legh.
  • Northern Powerhouse Rail and High Speed Two will share infrastructure.
  • The High Speed Two route to Manchester would be via Birmingham, Crewe, High Legh and Manchester Airport.
  • The High Speed Two route to Liverpool would be via Birmingham, Crewe, High Legh and Warrington
  • Hull will get a London service from High Speed Two via Birmingham, Crewe, High Legh and Manchester Airport, Manchester and Leeds

The Oakervee review of High Speed Two is also underway and leaks are suggesting, that the report is recommending that High Speed Two be built in full, but differently.

One important thing, that is happening, is that Network Rail have started the procurement process to improve the current line between Leeds and Huddersfield, as I reported in Network Rail Reveals Detailed £2.9bn Upgrade Plans For TransPennine Route.

  • Extra tracks will be built.
  • There will be some extra electrification.

I very much feel, that this is one of the most difficult TransPennine sections to improve.

The other sections are summarised as follows.

  • Liverpool and Manchester Airport via Warrington and High Legh is across the flat lands of North Cheshire and could follow the M56.
  • Manchester Airport and Manchester will probably be a high speed tunnel.
  • Manchester and Huddersfield section could possibly be improved in the short term
  • Leeds and Hull and the required connections to the East Coast Main Line are in the flat lands of East Yorkshire.

It looks to me, that Network Rail have a plan in there to perhaps deliver improved services East of Huddersfield and radiating from Leeds in the next few years.

It certainly needs improvement, as the TransPennine route must be the worst main line in the UK.

A One-Nation Railway

I think these lines can be connected to create an integrated high speed network.

  • High Speed Two
  • West Coast Main Line
  • East Coast Main Line
  • Northern Powerhouse Rail

But.

  • It doesn’t connect to the whole country and needs to be extended.
  • It won’t be fully developed until at least 2035.
  • Improvements are needed now!

So what could be substantially delivered of the core network, by say 2024, which is around the date of the next General Election?

  • Faster and more frequent services on the East Coast Main Line.
  • An electrified higher capacity and faster line between Leeds and Huddersfield and possibly between Leeds and Hull.
  • New East Coast Main Line services from London to Barnsley Dearne Valley, Bradford, Cleethorpes, Doncaster Sheffield Airport, Grimsby, Harrogate, Huddersfield, Middlesbrough, Norwich, Nottingham, Scarborough and Sheffield and Sunderland.
  • Sub-four hour services between London and Edinburgh.
  • New local services to connect Blyth and Ashington to the East Coast Main Line at Newcastle.
  • A Tees Valley Metro  connecting Bishop Auckland, Whitby and all in between to the East Coast Main Line at Darlington.
  • Improved local services between York and Leeds via Harrogate, Sheffield and Leeds via the Dearne Valley and on other lines in Yorkshire.

Effectively, the recommendations of this report on the Transport for the North web site, which is entitled At A Glance – Northern Powerhouse Rail, which apply to Leeds and Sheffield would have been implemented to connect to high speed services at Doncaster, Leeds, Sheffield and York.

Technology used would include.

  • Some more electrification using the power from the electrified East Coast Main Line.
  • Conventional electric trains and compatible battery trains.
  • Tram-trains feeding into the Sheffield Supertram.
  • ERTMS digital signalling on the East Coast Main Line and the major branches to Hull, Leeds and Middlesbrough.

There would also need to be an increase in LNER’s Azuma fleet. But that is already rumoured as I wrote in More New Trains On LNER Wish List.

Could we see as many as twelve Axumas per hour between London and Doncaster? Yes!

Could it all be delivered by the 2024 General Election? Yes!

High Speed Scotland

The Scottish Nationalist Party is pushing for High Speed Two to be extended to Scotland.

I think that this will eventually be a feasible project, but it will be a very expensive and perhaps built around 2040.

These are my thoughts for the next few years up to 2024.

High Speed To Edinburgh

Consider.

  • Edinburgh currently supports a half-hourly service to and from London.
  • East Coast Trains are proposing to add five trains per day to this route.
  • TransPennine Express will run an hourly service between Edinburgh and Liverpool, via Manchester, Leeds, York and Newcastle, which starts at the December 2019 timetable change..
  • CrossCountry run an hourly service between Aberdeen and Plymouth.
  • It looks like Edinburgh and Newcastle have a four tph service.

All services, except the CrossCountry  are planned to be run by Hitachi’s Class 800, 802 or 803 trains.

  • Currently, services take ninety minutes for the 125 miles between Newcastle and Edinburgh.
  • The Hitachi trains are all capable of 140 mph with digital signalling.
  • The Hitachi trains have better acceleration.
  • The route is fully electrified. Although, there are reports it needs enhancing to be able to handle the current number of trains.

How many minutes can be taken off thjs route, with a new timetable on a line running only Hitachi high speed trains?

Probably not that many, but it would ensure all London and Edinburgh trains were under four hours.

But it will all happen by 2024?

High Speed To Glasgow

So Edinburgh is alright, but what about Glasgow?

Consider.

  • Glasgow currently supports an hourly service to and from London.
  • TransPennine Express run an hourly service to and from Manchester Airport
  • TransPennine Express will run a three trains per day service to and from Liverpool.

Glasgow has a much lower frequency service to and from England than Edinburgh.

Currently, London and Glasgow takes over four-and-a half hours and there is going to be no serious improvement, until High Speed Two opens to Crewe, when the time could drop to perhaps just over three-and-a half hours.

But that won’t happen until possibly 2030.

In Does One Of Baldrick’s Descendents Work For Avanti West Coast?, I detail a cunning plan, that might allow London and Glasgow in four hours.

This was my conclusion in the other article.

To improve services between London and Birmingham, Blackpool, Liverpool and Scotland, appears to need the following.

  • Ten new Hitachi trains.
  • Full digital signalling on the West Coast Main Line.
  • Track improvements on the West Coast Main Line
  • Upgrading of the Pendelinos to allow 140 mph running.

This should reduce London and Glasgow to around four hours and London and Liverpool to around two hours.

There may be advantages in replacing the Pendelinos with the Classic-compatible High Speed Two trains on the London and Glasgow service as early as possible.

  • There would be a large increase of capacity between London and Glasgow.
  • What would be the possible speed of the Classic-compatible trains on updated track North of Crewe? I will assume 140 mph, but it could be more! That’s called engineering!
  • London and Glasgow timings would be improved, as soon as digital signalling is installed.
  • The trains would get a thorough testing before the opening of High Speed Two to Birmingham.

At least one platform at Glasgow Central would need to be extended to take a four-hundred metre long train.

According to Wikipedia, the Classic-compatible trains will be introduced from 2026.

I think by the December 2026 timetable change Glasgow could see a four-hour service to and from London.

But could it be 2024, if the Pendelinos can pick up time North of Crewe with digital signalling?

The Borders Railway

If High Speed Two is going to be a One Nation project, the Borders Railway must be extended from Tweedbank to Carlisle via Hawick.

Could this be done by 2024?

It would be a close-run thing! But possible!

The Glasgow South Western Line

The Glasgow South Western Line, is a secondary route between Glasgow and Carlisle.

It should be electrified early, so that during the upgrading of the West Coast Main Line North of Carlisle it can be used as a diversionary route.

Scotland Could Have Two Four-Hour Fully-Electrified Routes To And From London

But it’s not just London that gets good connectivity to and from Scotland!

  • Birmingham
  • Bradford
  • Carlisle
  • Leeds
  • Liverpool
  • Manchester
  • Newcastle
  • Peterborough
  • Preston
  • Wolverhampton
  • York

All these cities will have direct connections to Edinburgh and/or Glasgow.

High Speed Midlands

Almost unnoticed and with little fuss, the Midland Main Line is being upgraded to provide 125 mph services between London and Chesterfield, Derby, Leicester, Nottingham and Sheffield.

  • New Hitachi bi-mode Class 804 trains will improve speeds and increase capacity
  • Over the last decade or so, the track has been upgraded for 125 mph running.
  • Electrification will reach between London and Market Harborough.
  • Market Harborough station has been remodelled to remove a bottleneck.
  • The Corby branch will be electrified with the trains running half-hourly.

I also think, that the Midland Main Line will link into all the improvements between Barnsley, Doncaster, Leeds and Sheffield and provide the following.

  • A high speed route between Leeds and the East Midlands.
  • A route for a Barnsley and London service.
  • A second route for Leeds and London services..

It also seems that rail planners are getting innovative with the design of the Midland Main Line.

  • It appears that the Midland Main Line and High Speed Two’s spur to Sheffield will be combined into an electrified line between Clay Cross North Junction and Sheffield via Chesterfield.
  • An improved link to the East-West Rail link at Bedford could improve links between the North-East and the South of England.
  • The disused rail line between Market Harborough and Northampton could be reopened.

The line is a lot more than a connection between London and the East Midlands.

The upgrade should be complete by 2024.

East West Rail

East West Rail is still in a long planning stage, but it now looks likely to provide more than a passenger link between Oxford and Cambridge.

  • New freight routes for Felixstowe and Southampton.
  • Extra passenger services between Oxford and Reading in the West and Cambridge, Ipswich and Norwich in the East.
  • Connections to the Great Western Main Line, the Chiltern Line, West Coast Main Line, Midland Main Line, East Coast Main Line and the Great Eastern Main Line.

It has also been suggested that East West Rail should be connected to High Speed Two at a new station at Calvert. This could give Bristol, Cardiff and Southampton good links to and from High Speed Two.

Great Western Main Line

At the December 2019 timetable change, there has finally been some good news in the saga of the electrification of the Great Western Main Line.

  • Services between London and Bristol have been improved.
  • The timetable has been improved.

Whether it will stand up is another matter.

Certainly by 2024, it will be a much better main line.

It could have full digital in-can signalling, which could result in 140 mph running and journey time savings.

Who knows?

But what excites me is the possibility of a connection between High Speed Two and East West Rail at Calvert, which will allow trains to run between Bristol, Cardiff and Swansea, in Wales and the West and the North on a mainly electrified high speed railway.

High Speed North Wales

Avanti West Coast is purchasing thirteen new Hitachi bi-mode trains to run services to Chester and North Wales.

I can’t see much speed improvement in the services, although if the West Coast Main Line gets digital signalling, this could save a few minutes between London and Crewe.

High Speed Ireland

The technology is now available to build a rail bridge between Scotland and the island of Ireland.

I laid out the arguments in A Solution To The Northern Irish Problem!.

The Lincoln Solution

Lincoln is a city, that has been ignored by UK railways for decades.

But not any more as LNER now run six return trips a day to the city on Mondays to Saturdays and five on Sundays.

I wrote about the improvements in The Shape Of Train Services To Come.

How many other cities and large towns would benefit from a Lincoln solution?

LNER have already launched a similar service to Harrogate at the December 2019 timetable change and I’m sure that more will follow.

Disability And Access Issues

A true one-nation railway wouldn’t exclude anybody from using the trains.

Strides have been made to put up step-free bridges, but some of the access between platform and train is truly dreadful.

This picture shows what can be achieved by good design on a Class 755 train.

And this is the step on one of Hitachi’s new trains.

Note that all doors on these Hitachi trains are also far too narrow.

Some train manufacturers can do much better.

Recurring Themes

In this analysis, there are factors that keep cropping up.

Digital Signalling Or ERTMS

This is the key to squeezing more trains into our overcrowded railway.

Between London and Doncaster on the East Coast Main Line, should be operational in a few years and I believe the following lines should follow as soon as possible.

  • East Coast Main Line between Doncaster and York and possibly Newcastle.
  • East Coast Main Line North Of Newcastle
  • West Coast Main Line North Of Crewe
  • West Coast Main Line South Of Crewe
  • Midland Main Line
  • Great Western Main Line

As a time-expired Control Engineer, I believe that in-cab digital signalling is a major key to increasing capacity.

Faster Line Speeds

Some routes like TransPennine, have Victorian line speeds

Network Rail showed how it could improve line speed with the remodelling at Market Harborough station.

Bottlenecks, like the Trowse Swing Bridge at Norwich need immediate removal, no matter what the Heritage Taliban and other Luddites say.

New Hitachi Trains

There will be several more orders for the next generation of Hitachi’s high speed trains.

I have been critical of Hitachi’s manufacturing processes for these trains in the past, but they seem now to be running well in fleet service.

A standard UK train on 125 mph lines, that can also handle 140 mph with digital signalling must be a good thing for all sorts of reasons.

New Feeder Services

Several new feeder services have been indicated and there should be a lot more of these to bring the benefit of the high speed network to more of the UK population.

Delivering The Improvements

Geographically, the places where improvements are needed are spread thinly around the country and vary from projects with a cost of tens of millions to those with costs of tens of billions.

In the UK, we tend to go for the big hit, when perhaps several smaller ones might give a better short-term improvement.

We also duck projects, which would annoy the noisy local interests.

We need to have fundamental rethink about how we deliver and pay for rail improvements.

Conclusion

I am fairly pleased overall in that I think by 2024, many places in the UK, will have a much better train service than they do now!

Delivery of High Speed Two, East West Rail and Northern Powerhouse Rail as soon as possible after 2024, will be the icing on the cake.

Will It Be A One-Nation Project?

I think it can be!

December 16, 2019 Posted by | Transport/Travel | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments